策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 8 月 11 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 策略参考 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：由于本周美国农业部报告预期偏空，短期美豆在缺乏天气题材和出口低迷的拖累下，期价持续 承压于 1000 美分整数关口。国内豆类市场内强外弱格局持续，交易围绕近弱远强的供应预期和成本推动 展开，远期大豆成本抬升构成豆粕价格的重要支撑，短期豆粕期价有望保持易涨难跌走势。 品种：棕榈油(P) 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概 ...

原油系领跌玻璃纯碱表现疲弱 因俄美两国元首有望近期会晤，俄乌和谈有向好预期，地缘政治紧张情绪进一步降温，叠加OPEC+持 续增产以及石油消费将季节性转弱背景下，隔夜油价表现疲弱，带动国内原油系全线收跌，其中沥青增 仓破位下行，基本面方面，据南华期货分析，沥青供给端受山东部分炼厂复工带动，供给增加。而需求 端因华南、华东区域台风天气以及华北降雨抑制了需求释放，同时资金短缺尚未改善，旺季需求不及预 期。 玻璃、纯碱连续三天收跌，尽管煤炭现货价格上涨，对相关品种有成本支撑作用，但随着其涨幅收窄， 相关品种情绪边际转弱。基本面方面，银河期货分析称，纯碱供应增加，需求稳定，回归累库趋势，中 游货源释放，下游消耗前期库存，市场流动现货增加，现货下跌收基差；玻璃方面，随着期货价格下 跌，期限商货源释放，负反馈于现货市场，经过这一轮双月级别的上涨行情，无论是中游还是下游库存 都相对充足，短期补库意愿不强，且深加工订单未有明显好转，原片企业出货不佳，多数企业为促进出 货下调价格。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京8月8日电（郭洲洋、左元）8月8日，碳酸锂涨超7%，红枣涨超3%，菜粕涨超2%，苹果涨 超1%；SC原油、低硫燃 ...

| 品种 | 结算价(8月8日) | 结算价(8月1日) | 涨跌值 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 1219.5 | 1115 | 104.5 | 9.37% | | 碳酸锂 | 75000 | 68860 | 6140 | 8.92% | | 天然橡胶 | 15500 | 14440 | 1060 | 7.34% | | 纯碱 | 1336 | 1254 | 82 | 6.54% | | 沪银 | 9277 | 8923 | 354 | 3.97% | | 红枣 | 11310 | 10880 | 430 | 3.95% | | 菜籽粕 | 2763 | 2679 | 84 | 3.14% | | 苹果 | 8022 | 7791 | 231 | 2.96% | | 豆油 | 8396 | 8228 | 168 | 2.04% | | 豆二 | 3743 | 3670 | 73 | 1.99% | | 沪金 | 785.82 | 770.9 | 14.92 | 1.94% | | 焦炭 | 1648.5 | 1617.5 | 31 | 1.92 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a decline, with more commodities falling than rising, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Fuel oil and LU fuel dropped over 2%, reflecting significant losses in these sectors [1]. - Asphalt and glass saw declines exceeding 1%, contributing to the overall downward trend [1]. - Starch and PTA experienced slight decreases, indicating a mixed performance among various commodities [1]. Group 2: Notable Gains - Lithium carbonate surged over 7%, marking a strong performance in this commodity [1]. - Red dates increased by more than 3%, showing positive market sentiment in this area [1]. - Other commodities such as soybean meal and apples rose over 1%, indicating some resilience in specific sectors [1].

人民财讯8月8日电，国内商品期货开盘，碳酸锂主力合约涨超2%，菜粕涨超1%。氧化铝跌超2%，玻 璃、纯碱、原油跌超1%。 ...

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market opened with significant movements, including lithium carbonate, coking coal, and aluminum oxide contracts rising over 1% [1] - Conversely, soybean meal, European shipping rates, and caustic soda contracts experienced declines exceeding 1% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each commodity. Overall, the market conditions are diverse, with some commodities showing potential for price increases, while others are expected to experience price declines or remain range - bound. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Base Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillated weakly. The US service PMI was lower than expected, increasing recession concerns. LME inventories accumulated, and domestic inventories also rose slightly. The trading strategy is to maintain the idea of buying on dips [1]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The 2509 contract's closing price increased slightly. Supply was high, while demand was in the off - season. The price may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract's closing price rose. Supply capacity was stable, and demand from electrolytic aluminum plants increased. The price is expected to oscillate, and downstream enterprises can sell out - of - the - money put options [1]. - **Zinc**: The 2508 contract's closing price increased. Supply pressure was significant, and demand was in the off - season. The trading strategy is to sell on rallies [1]. - **Lead**: The 2508 contract's closing price increased slightly. The supply - demand pattern was weak. It is recommended to wait and see for inventory reduction or secondary lead production cuts [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract oscillated higher. The overall steel supply - demand was balanced, but there were structural differences. It is recommended to wait and see and close short positions [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract oscillated lower. Supply and demand were moderately strong. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2601 contract oscillated higher. Supply and demand were relatively loose, but the fundamentals were improving. It is recommended to wait and see and close short positions [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybeans were weak. Supply was abundant, and demand was affected by tariffs. Domestic soybeans had different trends from international ones, and it is necessary to pay attention to weather and tariff policies [5]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract was weak. Wheat substitution and increased supply from imports and new crops pressured the price. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract was weak. Brazil's production increased, and domestic prices were under pressure. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton growth was behind schedule, and domestic prices rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips and trade within the 13600 - 14000 yuan/ton range [6]. - **Log**: The 09 contract declined. Spot prices were stable, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Supply was strong, and demand was weak in the short - term. It may oscillate in the short - term but is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2509 contract was weak. Supply was increasing, and demand may increase seasonally. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract was weak. Supply was increasing, and demand was seasonally weak. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price rebounded slightly. Supply was increasing, and demand was improving. It may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term [8]. - **PVC**: The 09 contract rose slightly. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **PTA**: PX supply was increasing, and PTA supply was decreasing in the short - term but increasing in the long - term. It is recommended to short processing margins or far - month contracts [8]. - **Rubber**: The price rose. Raw material prices rebounded, and inventories decreased. It is recommended to hold long positions [9]. - **Glass**: The 09 contract declined. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was weak. The price has limited downside, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **PP**: The price oscillated slightly. Supply was increasing, and demand was differentiated. It may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term [9]. - **MEG**: Supply was increasing, and demand was stable. It is recommended to short far - month contracts [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The price was weak. OPEC+ will increase production, and demand was mixed. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities after the sanctions on Russia are clear [9]. - **Styrene**: The price declined slightly. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was weak. It may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term [10].

Report Overview - The report provides an analysis of the short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlooks for Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) futures, along with their core driving logics [1][5][7] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run in a relatively strong manner, with intraday views of being oscillating and strong, and medium - term views of being oscillating [1][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Medium - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Intraday**: Oscillating and strong [1] - **Reference View**: Relatively strong operation [1] - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The Southeast Asian rubber - tapping season and continuous new rubber output in domestic production areas lead to high supply pressure. The domestic downstream auto market is in the off - season with insufficient demand. After a previous sharp decline, negative sentiment is released. On Tuesday night, the RU 2601 contract oscillated and stabilized, with the price rising slightly by 0.52% to 15,460 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Wednesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Medium - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Intraday**: Oscillating and strong [1] - **Reference View**: Relatively strong operation [1] - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the synthetic rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The domestic synthetic rubber plant load is stable, resulting in continuous supply pressure. The domestic downstream auto market is in the off - season with insufficient demand. After a previous sharp decline, negative sentiment is released. On Tuesday night, the synthetic rubber futures oscillated and stabilized, with the price rising slightly by 0.09% to 11,470 yuan/ton. It is expected that the BR 2509 contract will maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Wednesday [7]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The report's core view on动力煤现货 is that it shows a neutral trend in the short - term and medium - term. The coal price is expected to be strong due to good support from peak - season demand and rapid inventory reduction at northern ports [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Contents Supply - At the end of July, some coal mines temporarily stopped production after achieving their production targets, leading to a short - term decline in coal output. However, production is expected to recover rapidly in August. The coal mine over - production rectification by the National Energy Administration has not significantly tightened safety supervision in production areas, and coal mines in major production areas are fulfilling their responsibility of ensuring supply during the peak season, with stable output [4] Demand - The National Climate Center's climate trend forecast for August shows that temperatures in most parts of the country will be close to or higher than the same period of the year. Electricity consumption in the tertiary industry and residential life this summer will have certain support [4] Inventory - As of July 31, the total coal inventory at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 24.847 million tons, a significant weekly de - stocking of 2.25 million tons, and slightly higher than the same period last year by 235,000 tons [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run in a relatively strong manner, with an intraday view of being oscillatingly strong and a medium - term view of oscillation [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Performance**: On the night session of Monday this week, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.73% to 14,425 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatingly strong trend on Tuesday [5]. - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also continuously releasing new rubber output, resulting in a relatively high supply pressure. Meanwhile, the domestic downstream automobile market is in the off - season, and the demand - driving force is insufficient. After the previous sharp decline, the bearish sentiment in the rubber market has been released [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Performance**: On the night session of Monday this week, domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.39% to 11,450 yuan/ton. It is expected that the 2509 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures will maintain an oscillatingly strong trend on Tuesday [7]. - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, synthetic rubber returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, and the supply pressure remains. The domestic downstream automobile market is in the off - season, and the demand - driving force is insufficient. After the previous sharp decline, the bearish sentiment in the rubber market has been released [7].