行情复盘看，本轮AI行情以光模块为代表的上游算力硬件显著领涨，聚焦AI算力的创业板人工智能近 期频繁突破，年内以来累计上涨近35%，明显跑赢中证人工智能、CS人工智、科创AI等同类AI指数。 | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 区间张跃幅 | 年化波动率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [×同首日] 2025-1-1 [区同居日] 2025-8-12 [单位] %↓ | [起始交易日期] 2025-1-1 [截止交易日期] 2025-8-12 [周期] 周 | | | | | | | [收益率算法] 普通收益率 | | | | | | | [单位] % | | | 1 | 970070.CNI | 创业板人工智能 | 34.9599 | | 37.8408 | | 2 | 950180.CSI | 科创AI | 25.7814 | | 26.6399 | | 3 | 930713.CSI | CS人工智 | 21.4154 | | 28.0006 | | ন | 931071.CSI | 人工智能 | 26.9122 | | 29.65 ...

近期，A股上市公司半年度业绩预告陆续发布。截至7月26日记者发稿，当前A股市场共有1766家上 市公司发布半年度业绩预告，超四成公司业绩预喜，380家预计净利润翻番。行业方面，机械设备、电 子、化工、生物医药等行业表现突出，新能源产业链龙头业绩持续高增长。板块方面，开市刚满三周年 的科创板表现依然比较抢眼，高成长属性凸显。 业绩预喜公司超过四成 Wind数据显示，截至7月26日记者发稿，当前A股市场已有1766家上市公司发布了半年度业绩预告，其 中745家业绩预喜（包括预增、续盈、扭亏及略增四种情形，下同），占比约42.19%。具体来看，527 家业绩预增，15家续盈，107家扭亏，96家略增，350家业绩预减，278家续亏，331家首亏，57家略减， 5家不确定。 从预计净利润增幅来看，有380家公司预计上半年净利润增幅下限超过100%，九安医疗、天齐锂业、盛 路通信等26家公司预计今年上半年净利润增幅超过10倍，2家公司净利润增幅超100倍。其中，九安医疗 增幅暂时位居A股首位，公司预计2022年上半年归属于上市公司股东的净利润为151.00亿元至155.00亿 元，同比增长27466.36%至28196 ...

Market Overview - The market continues to operate in an upward trend, with the core observation variable being whether the market's profit-making effect can be sustained. As long as the profit-making effect remains positive, incremental capital is likely to continue entering the market. The current WIND All A trend line is around 5540 points, with a profit-making effect value of 2.30%, which is significantly positive. It is recommended to hold positions patiently and maintain a high allocation until the profit-making effect turns negative [1][4][8]. Industry Rotation - In terms of industry allocation, the model continues to recommend sectors that are in a turnaround phase, specifically Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals and securities, as the upward trend persists. The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, with a focus on military and computing power. Short-term signals indicate that the liquor and agriculture sectors are entering a low point in the emotional cycle, which may lead to a rebound [2][4][8]. Performance Metrics - The Davis Double strategy achieved an excess benchmark of 1.32% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 33.83% for the year. The CSI 300 Enhanced strategy also outperformed the benchmark by 1.77% this week, with a cumulative excess return of 19.41% for the year. The net profit gap strategy had an excess benchmark of -0.26% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 37.50% for the year [1][9][15]. Valuation Indicators - The overall PE of the WIND All A index is at the 70th percentile, indicating a medium level, while the PB is at the 30th percentile, indicating a relatively low level. Based on short-term trend assessments, the absolute return products with WIND All A as the stock allocation subject are recommended to maintain an 80% allocation [4][6][8].

Group 1 - The article highlights a market potential of 1.5 trillion, with a data gap of 90%, indicating significant investment opportunities in companies that can replicate the success of ScaleAI, which generated 870 million in annual revenue [1] - It notes that net profit margins in the sector are projected to be between 63% and 77%, while the price-to-book ratio is only 1.55, placing it in the 42nd percentile over the past decade, suggesting a severe divergence between performance and valuation [1] - The article suggests that under the combined effects of policy bottoming, capital influx, and performance waves, certain companies are poised to experience a "Davis Double" effect, enhancing their investment attractiveness [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and growth of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 Index ETF, highlighting its recent gains and the impact of U.S. tariffs on semiconductor imports [3][4]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of August 7, 2025, the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 Index (000698) increased by 0.51%, with notable gains from individual stocks such as Dongxin Co. (688110) up 17.00% and Funeng Technology (688567) up 9.08% [3]. - The Sci-Tech 100 Index ETF (588030) has seen a 3.18% increase over the past week, marking its fourth consecutive rise [3]. - The ETF's trading volume reached 87.18 million yuan with a turnover rate of 1.35% [3]. - Over the past year, the ETF has achieved a net value increase of 60.34%, ranking 320 out of 2949 index equity funds, placing it in the top 10.85% [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for AI computing power is expected to surge, coinciding with a bottoming out of the semiconductor cycle, potentially benefiting the sector significantly [4]. - U.S. tariffs on chips and semiconductors, announced by President Trump, are set at approximately 100%, but companies manufacturing in the U.S. will be exempt from these tariffs [3]. Group 3: Fund Metrics - The Sci-Tech 100 Index ETF has experienced a significant growth in scale, with an increase of 1.92 billion yuan over the past week, leading among comparable funds [4]. - The ETF's financing net purchase reached 5.51 million yuan, with a total financing balance of 183 million yuan [4]. - The ETF's management fee is 0.15% and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds [5]. - The ETF closely tracks the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 Index, which consists of 100 medium-cap stocks selected for their liquidity [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is expected to experience significant profit growth and an upward shift in valuation due to a thriving primary and secondary market, supported by favorable policies, leading to a potential "Davis Double Play" [1][3]. Group 1: Market Position and Strategy - HKEX is a globally leading exchange group, uniquely positioned as the only exchange platform in Hong Kong, encompassing the Stock Exchange, Futures Exchange, and London Metal Exchange, which creates a comprehensive service ecosystem [1]. - The strategic direction of HKEX focuses on connecting China with the world, capital with opportunities, and the present with the future, leveraging its unique regional and regulatory resources to enhance innovation and international expansion [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Business Model - The company's light capital structure ensures high profit margins and return on equity (ROE), with trading fees and system usage fees contributing significantly to revenue, accounting for 53% of total income [2]. - HKEX maintains a net profit margin and EBITDA margin around 58% and 75%, respectively, while the median ROE over the past decade has reached 23% [2]. Group 3: Valuation Drivers - The dual resonance of assets and funds is driving the valuation of HKEX upward, with improved asset structure and favorable policies supporting the listing of A-share companies in Hong Kong [3]. - The influx of southbound funds, driven by the valuation discount of Hong Kong stocks and the anticipated near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to sustain market liquidity and activity [3]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The projected net profit for HKEX from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at HKD 153 billion, 166 billion, and 178 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of +17%, +9%, and +7% respectively [3]. - Given the regional monopoly advantages and high shareholder return attributes, HKEX is assigned a PE valuation of 50 times, with a target price of HKD 515, indicating a potential upside of 23% from current levels [3].

Group 1 - The investment enthusiasm in the equity market has been reignited this year, with major indices showing significant gains, including the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index, which rose by 23.5% and 22.05% respectively [1] - Mixed-asset financial products have seen a notable increase in returns due to the stock market rally, with several companies announcing cash dividends for their mixed-asset products [1] - The "Fuli Xingcheng Alpha One Month Holding Period No. 2" product announced a cash dividend of 0.03 yuan per unit, achieving a cumulative net value increase of 18.92% as of July 30 [1][4] Group 2 - Xingyin Wealth Management has adapted to the complex internal and external environment by innovating products and diversifying investment strategies, leading to initial success in its equity investment business [2] - The company has transitioned from a single strategy to a diversified strategy system, covering absolute and relative returns, self-management and co-management, direct stock investment and FOF investment, among others [2] - The "Fuli Xingcheng Alpha One Month Holding Period No. 2" product has a maximum drawdown of only 3.27% since its inception, indicating effective execution of its absolute return strategy [4][6] Group 3 - The "Fuli Xingcheng Alpha One Month Holding Period No. 2" product employs a low valuation value investment strategy, focusing on stocks with low price-to-book ratios and high return on equity [4] - The product manager's compensation is linked to investor interests, as no management fees are charged when the net value falls below 1, and there are no subscription or redemption fees [6] - The "Alpha 1" product, which also follows a low valuation stock selection strategy, achieved a cumulative net value increase of 22.2% as of July 30, 2025 [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing significant growth in new investor accounts, indicating a positive outlook for the capital market and a shift towards equity investments, which is beneficial for the securities sector [6][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 5, the Shanghai Composite Index rose nearly 1%, reaching a new high for the year, with over 3,900 stocks gaining in value, driven by strong performance from heavyweight stocks [1]. - The leading securities ETF (560090) has seen a 0.94% increase, marking two consecutive days of gains and attracting over 13 million yuan in net inflows over the past five days [1][3]. Group 2: Securities Sector Growth - The component stocks of the leading securities ETF (560090) almost all experienced gains, with notable increases such as a 6% rise in Xinda Securities and over 3% in Hongta Securities [3]. - The top ten component stocks of the securities ETF include companies like Dongfang Caifu and CITIC Securities, with trading volumes and estimated weights indicating strong market interest [4]. Group 3: Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - In July 2025, new A-share accounts reached 1.96 million, a 71% increase compared to July 2024, reflecting a significant rise in investor participation [6]. - The increase in new accounts is associated with a positive shift in investor sentiment towards the capital market, as evidenced by a notable rise in the proportion of household savings allocated to A-shares [6][7]. - The market is entering a phase characterized by increased activity and liquidity, with a strong feedback loop of capital inflow driving market growth [7][9]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Securities Firms - The securities sector is expected to benefit from the increase in new accounts, leading to enhanced liquidity and potential performance improvements for brokerage firms [9]. - Positive policy developments and market conditions are anticipated to support the growth of brokerage firms' earnings and valuations, with a focus on both short-term and long-term opportunities [9].

Core Viewpoint - Baiwang Co., Ltd. is expected to achieve a historic turnaround with a net profit forecast of 3 to 5 million RMB for the first half of 2025, driven by a significant revenue increase of 17%-35% year-on-year, reaching 330 to 380 million RMB, with AI business contributing 58 to 63 million RMB [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a substantial increase in revenue, with AI business becoming a core growth engine [1] - Gross margin is projected to rise to 45%-50%, validating the effectiveness of the company's "loss reduction and profit increase" strategy [1] Group 2: Strategic Transformation - Baiwang is transitioning from a traditional tax SaaS provider to a leader in data intelligence, successfully converting vast data resources into commercial value [1][2] - The company is focusing on a dual-engine strategy of "AI Intelligent Body × Data Intelligence" to enhance operational quality and build technical barriers [2] Group 3: Leadership Change - The appointment of a new CEO, Fu Yingbo, a seasoned AI leader, signals the company's commitment to its AI strategic transformation [3] Group 4: Market Potential and Competitive Advantage - Multiple institutions are optimistic about Baiwang's data monetization potential, highlighting the rarity of its government-level data infrastructure projects [4] - Baiwang's core competitiveness stems from its unparalleled data asset endowment, having processed invoice transaction amounts exceeding 95.35 trillion RMB, which is about seven times the nominal GDP of China in 2024 [4] Group 5: Customer Base Growth - The number of group clients served by Baiwang increased by 29.9% from 2051 to 2664, while the number of small and medium-sized clients grew by 18.8% [5] - The total number of taxpayer identification numbers served surged by 81.2%, indicating strong market penetration and influence [5] Group 6: Capital Operations and Incentives - Baiwang has submitted an application for the conversion of domestic unlisted shares to H-shares, which will significantly enhance its capital operation space and financing capabilities [6] - The introduction of an equity incentive plan in early 2025 aims to bind AI talent with the company's innovation direction, boosting market confidence and supporting the development of data intelligence technology [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the optimistic sentiment among private equity firms regarding the stock market, with a notable increase in their positions and a focus on specific investment opportunities in the second half of the year [1][2][3]. Group 1: Private Equity Positioning - As of July 25, 2025, the stock private equity position index is at 75.85%, up 0.76% from the previous week, with large private equity firms showing the most significant increase [1]. - Nearly 60% of stock private equity firms are fully invested, with 57.23% having positions over 80%, while 62.24% of large private equity firms are also fully invested [1]. - The average return of subjective long positions among private equity firms is 14.86% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the market index return of 6.61% [1]. Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - Major private equity firms maintain a positive long-term outlook for the stock market, supported by ample liquidity and improving fundamentals [2]. - Key investment directions identified include the revaluation of quality Chinese assets, globalization of advantageous industries, and opportunities in self-sufficient technology sectors [2]. - The focus also includes potential gains from economic-sensitive assets that may benefit from marginal improvements or new policies [2]. Group 3: Research and Analysis - Private equity firms are intensifying their research on quality listed companies, with 651 A-share companies being investigated by institutions as of July 31, involving 11,554 participating institutions [3]. - The most researched sectors by institutional investors are electronics, pharmaceuticals, computers, and machinery, while private equity firms focus on computers, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and power equipment [3]. Group 4: Quantitative vs. Subjective Private Equity - The number of billion-dollar quantitative private equity firms has surpassed that of subjective private equity firms for the first time, with 41 quantitative firms compared to 40 subjective firms as of July 10 [4]. - This marks an increase of 8 quantitative firms and a decrease of 6 subjective firms since the end of last year [4].