美联储政策框架应当在一系列假设场景中发挥作用。 美国达拉斯联储主席Logan：留意就业人数高于最大程度可持续的水平。 美联储应当侧重于通胀目标，而不应当在意过去的不达标问题。 ...

科技七巨头涨跌互现， 特斯拉 涨超1%，部分车型进入中国2025年新能源汽车下乡车型目录。 Meta 涨0.5%， 苹果 涨0.4%， 微软 涨0.3%， 谷歌 走低 1.1%。 6月3日当地时间周二，美股三大指数开盘涨跌不一，随后集体拉升。 截至发稿， 标普500指数 涨0.32%报5954.92点， 道琼斯工业指数 涨0.13%报42358.49点， 纳斯达克指数 攀升0.70%报19377.49点。 值得一提的是，根据日程安排，美联储下次议息会议将于6月17日至18日举行。近期市场数据显示，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率高达98%，市场普遍预 期其将在7月继续观望，并在今年晚些时候重启降息周期。自去年12月以来，美联储已连续三次暂停加息，联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%。 分析人士指出，鲍威尔的"缄口"与美联储官员的表态分化，反映出政策制定者在通胀压力与经济韧性之间的权衡。关税政策的不确定性或成美联储后续决策 的核心变量，若贸易摩擦升级导致通胀超预期反弹，降息时点可能进一步推迟。投资者需密切关注本周五非农数据及6月议息会议后的政策声明，以捕捉美联 储下半年政策路径的蛛丝马迹。 半导体板块涨 ...

美债曾被投资者视为全球最稳健的避险资产之一，如今这一信仰正遭遇前所未有的冲击。 5月下旬，20年期和30年期美债收益率一度突破5.1%的关键心理关口，引发市场对长期美债"抛售潮"的 广泛关注。此轮收益率飙升，反映出市场对美国财政赤字、债务规模及利息负担的深层担忧。 在这一宏观背景下，国际评级机构惠誉(Fitch Ratings)对美国财政前景发出警示。该机构主权评级高级 董事Richard Francis近期表示："即使美国财政赤字在2025年短暂改善，受减税延续和经济增长放缓影 响，赤字规模仍将再次扩大。到2026年，美国债务占GDP的比重预计将达到120%，是AA评级国家中值 的两倍以上，利息支出占财政收入的比重将超过13%，在同类评级国家中居于最高水平。"他进一步指 出，若美国财政政策的连贯性和可信度受到侵蚀，美元作为全球储备货币的地位及其融资灵活性或将面 临削弱。 针对这一系列复杂变局，南方财经全媒体记者独家专访了惠誉评级首席经济学家Brian Coulton，围绕当 前美国债市波动、通胀前景、美联储政策路径等核心议题展开了深入探讨。预计今年美联储将降息一次 南方财经：你认为导致长期美债收益率高企的主 ...

智通财经6月2日电，美联储的LOGAN表示，对于所面临的风险，政策处于良好的状态；关税的潜在风 险是失业率和通胀上升。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利最新研报指出，在美联储降息周期与全球经济增速放缓的双重压力下，美元指数(DXY)或将开启深度调整。以马修·霍恩巴赫 为首的策略师团队在5月31日发布的报告中预测，到2026年年中，美元指数将较当前水平下跌约9%，跌至91点，创2020年新冠疫情爆发以来新低。这一预测 与市场对美元前景的重新评估形成共振，尤其在特朗普政府贸易政策引发全球对美元地位反思的背景下，美元指数已从2025年2月高点回落近10%。 在货币市场，摩根士丹利明确看好三大非美币种：欧元兑美元汇率有望从当前的1.13升至1.25，受益于欧洲央行相对谨慎的降息节奏与能源价格回落带来的 贸易条件改善;日元作为传统避险资产，其汇率可能从143日元升至130日元，尤其在特朗普贸易政策加剧全球不确定性背景下，日元套息交易平仓风险将持 续支撑其汇率;英镑兑美元或从1.35升至1.45，这主要得益于英国相对温和的贸易环境，以及当前5.25%的高政策利率所带来的利差优势。 值得注意的是，摩根大通策略师米拉·钱丹团队上周同步释放看跌美元信号，建议投资者做空美元并转而看好日元、欧元和澳元。亚洲交易时段早盘，美元 指数延续跌势，彭博美元现 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market opened higher today, showing a complex trend influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy direction, which remains a key factor [1] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.5%, with core inflation still above target, leading to a stronger US dollar (currently around 101.98), which pressures gold prices [1] - If the Federal Reserve officials signal a dovish stance in the future, gold prices may receive a boost [1] - Geopolitical risks, including tensions in the Middle East and military dynamics in the Yellow Sea, may drive short-term safe-haven demand for gold [3] - However, easing US-China tariffs and expectations of a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could weaken market risk appetite, negatively impacting gold prices [3] - The largest gold ETF (SPDR) has shown frequent fluctuations in holdings, indicating significant market divergence [3] - Current gold prices are oscillating between $3280 and $3325, with key support at $3270 and resistance at $3325; a breakout above $3325 could lead to a rise to $3365, while a drop below $3270 may see prices fall to $3260 [3] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - The silver market is experiencing price differentiation across different trading markets, influenced by an unclear global economic recovery outlook [4] - Geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions continue to disrupt the market, despite some countries implementing stimulus policies [4] - Industrial demand for silver is supported by its applications in photovoltaic and electronic industries, with steady growth in demand from the solar sector [4] - However, cyclical fluctuations in the electronics sector introduce uncertainty in silver demand [4] - Recent fluctuations in silver ETF holdings reflect investors' wavering confidence in the market [4] - Short-term support for silver prices is around $33 per ounce, with resistance seen at the $33.5-$33.8 per ounce range [6] - The MACD indicator shows signs of balance between bullish and bearish forces, while the RSI indicates a neutral to slightly bullish state [6] - The silver price is within an upward channel on the weekly chart, but faces resistance from previous highs, requiring strong trading volume for a breakout [6]

美联储洛根：如果风险平衡发生变化，美联储已做好充分准备予以应对。可能还需要相当长的时间才能 看到风险平衡的变化。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy positioning is deemed accurate, and maintaining stable policy interest rates is viewed as a positive decision [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve, represented by Daly, emphasizes the appropriateness of its current policy stance [1] - The decision to keep interest rates stable is highlighted as a proactive measure [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Daly, emphasizes that it is not the first time the U.S. government has requested adjustments to monetary policy, highlighting the Fed's accountability to the American public [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's independence is underscored, indicating that it operates with a focus on the broader economic implications rather than direct governmental influence [1] - Daly's statement reflects the ongoing dialogue between the government and the Federal Reserve regarding economic policy adjustments [1]

美联储可能会尽可能长时间地维持政策不变。因此，今年两次降息是合理的，这已被市场消化。 法国兴业银行美国利率策略主管Subadra Rajappa：债券市场真正关注的是所有不确定性对经济增长的影 响轨迹。 ...