Group 1 - Silver TD continues to decline, currently reported at 9106 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.54% [1][4] - The opening price today was 9184 yuan/kg, with a highest point of 9185 yuan/kg and a lowest point of 9071 yuan/kg [1][4] - Short-term outlook for silver TD is bearish, with resistance levels at 9243-9253 yuan/kg and support levels at 8795-8805 yuan/kg [4] Group 2 - Strong employment data in the US for June has led traders to reduce bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June rose by 0.3% month-on-month, with the annual rate accelerating from 2.4% in May to 2.7% [3] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.9% year-on-year, up from the previous value of 2.8% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range with a downward trend and weak operation [1] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to move in a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel production [2] - In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown plans, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased 40.3% month - on - month and increased 43.2% year - on - year [3] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, with prices hitting new lows. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish [3] Aluminum - In the US, consumer price inflation in June reached a five - month high, which may lead the Fed to wait and see before September [2] - As of last Thursday, the national alumina operating rate decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 79.92%, with some enterprises in Shandong and Guangxi under maintenance [3] - Guinea requires 50% of bauxite exports to be transported by its own ships, and its bauxite exports have increased 37% in 2025 [3] - As of the end of June, alumina enterprise inventories increased by 81,000 tons [3] - Last week, the aluminum processing industry's operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% [3] - On July 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas increased by 35,000 tons compared with last Thursday [3] - Since the end of June, the reduction of aluminum rod production has led to an expected decrease in the proportion of molten aluminum in July, and the supply of aluminum ingots has increased significantly [3] - The decline in aluminum prices on Monday was due to the short - term impact of concentrated arrivals over the weekend [3]

这不是狼来了的故事——只不过，这一次"狼"可能真在门口了。 在经历了几个月的"按兵不动"后，美国消费者价格指数（CPI）终于要动真格的了。而这波涨价背后，有个熟悉的 老面孔——特朗普的关税政策。 你以为关税加了、价格就立刻飙上去？真没那么简单。过去这段时间，市场像是在按下暂停键，表面平静，其实 底下早就暗流涌动。现在，这股压力正在一点点冒头。 CPI即将放大招？经济学家的预言正在成真 根据最新预测，6月美国整体CPI和核心CPI都将环比上涨0.3%。听起来不多？可别小看这个数字——这意味着年 化核心通胀率将逼近3%，已经远远超出了美联储2%的"舒适区"。 一旦数据坐实，原本押注7月降息的那批人，可能要改口了。 鲍威尔上个月其实已经放风了："关税的影响会在6月或7月的数据显示出来。" 看来，这不是一句场面话。 关税的"隐身术"：它们去了哪？ 很多人不解：加税明明早就落地，为啥通胀现在才动静大？ 原油跌、房租稳，这些大项反而压住了物价。 但别以为这就没事了。工具、新车、家具这类商品价格，已经悄悄涨了0.3%。 这些原本是价格"惯性下跌"的品 类，现在回头涨价，已经不是巧合。 接下来是"阵痛"，还是长期通胀的前奏？ ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent rise in US CPI data has led to a rebound in inflation, providing support for the gold market amid ongoing trade tariff policies from Trump [2] - The spot gold market experienced fluctuations after the CPI data release, with a low of $3320.22 per ounce and a closing price of $3324.65 per ounce [2] - Current trading in the Asian market is stable, with gold prices hovering around $3330.00 per ounce, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2] Group 2 - The spot gold market is currently in a consolidation phase, with a trading range identified between $3321.00 and $3332.00, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high within this range [3] - If the market breaks below $3321.00, a short position may be considered with target levels set at $3311.00 to $3301.00 per ounce [3] - Conversely, if the market breaks above $3332.00, a long position could be initiated with target levels aimed at $3342.00 to $3352.00 per ounce [3] Group 3 - The spot silver market is also in a consolidation phase, with a trading range identified between $37.560 and $37.850, allowing for a similar buy low and sell high strategy [5] - A break below $37.560 could prompt the establishment of short positions, targeting price levels of $37.100 to $36.800 per ounce [5] - If the market successfully breaks above $37.850, long positions may be pursued with target levels of $38.100 to $38.400 per ounce [5]

投资者等待美国周三将公布的生产者物价指数(PPI)，寻找更多美联储动向的线索。 周三（7月16日）亚市早盘，现货黄金小幅上涨，目前黄金价格交投于3330美元附近，昨日金价在CPI 数据公布后回吐日内涨幅，一度下破3320美元关口，最终收跌0.60%，收报3322.99美元/盎司，为连续 第二个交易日走低。 美国周二发布的数据显示，美国6月CPI同比增长2.7%，符合预期，但高于5月份的2.4%。美国6月CPI环 比增长0.3%，与市场预期一致，但高于前值0.1%，为今年1月以來最大增幅。 此外，美国6月核心CPI同比增长2.9%，增幅高于5月份的2.8%，而6月核心CPI环比增长0.2%。 市场普遍认为，美国总统特朗普的关税政策增加了物价压力，促使美联储按兵不动，静待其后续影响。 美联储主席鲍威尔此前曾表示，预期夏季物价将上升。 联邦基金期货交易显示，今年底前预估降息幅度为44个基点，低于通胀数据公布前的48个基点，市场仍 预期首次降息将于9月启动。 美债收益率的持续上涨在周二也打压金价走势。周二美国10年期公债收益率上涨至4.487%，创6月11日 以来最高，30年期公债收益率触及5.022%的六周峰值。收 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic gold prices have decreased by 0.42% to 774.92 RMB per gram, while international gold prices have slightly increased by 0.01% to 3337.1 USD per ounce, indicating a mixed market sentiment influenced by various factors [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Policy - Trump's tariff policy is a significant driver of gold price fluctuations, with threats of high tariffs on the EU and Mexico raising concerns about global trade dynamics [2]. - The EU's potential retaliatory tariffs could exacerbate inflation, which would be favorable for gold prices, although short-term market sentiment remains cautious as investors await more details [2]. - Trump's announcement of sending tariff letters to smaller countries, with rates possibly exceeding 10%, may provide some support for gold prices as a safe-haven asset [2]. Group 2: Inflation Data and Federal Reserve Policy - The U.S. June CPI showed the largest month-on-month increase since January, leading to slight adjustments in market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with a projected reduction of about 44 basis points by year-end [3]. - The probability of a rate cut in September has decreased to 53%, and Powell's vigilance regarding inflation suggests a cautious approach from the Fed [3]. - The moderate rise in inflation data did not exceed expectations, resulting in a stronger dollar index and a six-week high in U.S. Treasury yields, which has pressured gold prices [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The gold market is experiencing frequent short-term volatility, with key technical levels such as 3375 USD acting as strong resistance and the 3330-3350 USD range serving as significant support [4]. - Market sentiment remains cautious as investors await clarity on tariff policies and economic data, with speculative positions impacting price movements [4]. - Retail investors are advised to be cautious of chasing prices, as this could lead to unfavorable outcomes [4]. Group 4: Price Outlook - Short-term gold prices are expected to be influenced by tariff policies, inflation data, and market sentiment, leading to significant volatility [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies provides both support as a safe haven and pressure due to market caution [5]. - Long-term factors such as central bank gold purchases, increasing demand for gold, and its properties as a hedge against inflation are expected to support gold prices, with a potential for upward movement in the long run [5].

金十数据7月15日讯，"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos最新撰文称："6月的通胀数据可能会让美联储官员 继续保持谨慎，那些曾预测关税将在今年晚些时候引发更显著价格压力的政策制定者，在看到6月的数 据后，可能不会有太多理由改变这一观点——尤其是如果零售商尽可能推迟调整价格的话。 6月的数据 只会让即将公布的7月和8月数据显得更加重要。同样，那些认为关税不会引发显著通胀（因为企业定价 能力不足以支撑通胀上升）的政策制定者，在看到周二的报告后，也几乎没有理由改变自己的看 法。"近几周，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，与春季相比，美联储降息的门槛可能略有降低。这一转变反映 出一种评估：通胀风险可能需要更长时间才会显现，因此其影响也会相对较弱。 如果美联储维持"通胀 加速不会过于剧烈"的预期，那么基于劳动力市场走软或通胀数据好转等情况，鲍威尔可能最早在9月为 降息打开大门。" 订阅美联储动态 +订阅 订阅美国CPI +订阅 美联储传声筒：今天的CPI报告不会改变美联储的政策走向 ...

金十数据7月15日讯，信安资产管理公司首席全球策略师Seema Shah表示，家庭家具、娱乐用品及服装 等品类的价格上涨，表明关税正逐渐渗透到核心商品价格中。她称，关税的全部影响需要数月时间才会 在通胀数据中显现。她补充道："尽管关税引发的通胀上升可能是短期的，但鉴于更高的关税已宣布实 施，美联储至少在未来几个月内保持按兵不动才是明智之举。" 策略师：美联储保持按兵不动是明智之举 ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley has revised its economic forecasts, now expecting US GDP growth of 1.3% in 2025, a downward adjustment of 0.2% from previous estimates [1] - The forecast for PCE inflation has been increased to 2.7%, up by 0.2% from earlier predictions [1] - Core PCE inflation expectations have also been raised to 3.1%, reflecting an increase of 0.3% from prior forecasts [1] Economic Indicators - US GDP growth forecast for 2025: 1.3% [1] - PCE inflation forecast: 2.7% [1] - Core PCE inflation forecast: 3.1% [1]

若金价反弹至3358附近，可轻仓尝试做空，止损设置在3365上方，目标看向3340昨日低点位置。若3340破位，可进一步下看3330 - 3335区域。 多单策略：等待金价回落至3330 - 3335区间，若能在此区域获得明显支撑并企稳，可轻仓做多，止损设置在3325下方，目标先看3345 - 3350； 然后关注还有没有做空的机会。 黄金走势分析：伦敦金在触及高位后遇阻回落，市场围绕 "涨势能否延续" 产生明显分歧。从驱动因素看，支撑上涨的逻辑包括：美联储鸽派 预期尚未完全消退，贸易政策谈判的不确定性可能引发避险资金流入，以及部分多头对通胀数据的 "利空出尽" 押注。但压制因素同样突出： 3375 附近关键阻力多次承压，昨日美盘初跌破欧盘低点释放回调信号，且美元指数在经济数据公布前的企稳可能进一步制约黄金上行空间。 趋势上，在未有效突破 3375-3380 阻力区间前，高位遇阻后的回调风险大于续涨概率。 周一高开回补缺口后，欧盘拉涨至高位盘整，但未破前高3375，美盘初跌破欧盘低点至3347，验证了 "阻力下做空" 的有效性。随后反弹至 3358附近，恰好是前期计划的二次入场位，形成 "回调 - 反弹 - ...