Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant growth in the scale of joint venture wealth management products in 2025, with a notable increase in management sizes for specific companies, indicating a positive trend in the industry [2][6]. Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The scale of joint venture wealth management has seen a remarkable increase, with five companies reaching a total of 191.7 billion yuan by July 23, 2025, representing an increase of over 50% since the beginning of the year [2][6]. - Among these, the management scale of BNP Paribas and BlackRock's joint venture reached 61.1 billion yuan and 42.8 billion yuan respectively, both showing substantial growth this year [2][6]. - BNP Paribas focuses on stable returns with a strategy centered on fixed income, while BlackRock adopts a multi-strategy approach, enhancing product returns and risk control [6]. Peer Innovation Dynamics - Minsheng Wealth Management has upgraded the redemption speed for its cash management products, allowing for faster access to funds, which enhances investment efficiency and reduces idle cash periods [7]. Yield Performance - For the week of July 14-20, 2025, cash management products recorded an annualized yield of 1.37%, down 3 basis points from the previous week, while money market funds yielded 1.22%, down 1 basis point [8]. - The yield gap between cash management products and money market funds narrowed by 3 basis points [8]. - In pure fixed income products, yields for those with maturities under six months generally increased, while those over six months saw a decline [9]. Credit Spread Tracking - The credit spread has been narrowing since May, currently at historical low levels since September 2024, indicating limited value [11][15]. - The net asset value of bank wealth management products has a low break-even rate of 0.84%, down 0.02 percentage points, suggesting stability in the market [15]. Market Outlook - The article suggests that the ongoing regulatory adjustments and low interest rate environment may continue to pressure the yields of wealth management products in the medium to long term [12]. - Companies are expected to focus on low-volatility, high-liquidity assets to manage fluctuations effectively, which may limit potential returns [12].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock indices is "volatile" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "volatile" [2] Group 2: Core Views - The A-share market continued to rise, with the Wind All A up 0.61% and a turnover of 1.93 trillion yuan. The central government is stimulating economic recovery through investment, which may bring incremental funds in the short term, but the long-term effect remains to be seen. Overseas, the Fed's rate cut expectation has slowed, and the domestic small-cap index has been less boosted. The index's future depends on the domestic economic recovery process, and it is expected to remain volatile [1] - Treasury bond futures closed lower, with the central bank conducting reverse repurchase operations and a net withdrawal of funds. The economy remains resilient, reducing the short-term expectation of interest rate cuts, and treasury bonds are expected to run bearishly in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Indices**: The A-share market rose, with various indices showing different increases. The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project drove up the infrastructure sector. Economic and financial data showed mixed results, with investment continuing to decline and M1 performing well. The central government's economic stimulus measures may bring short-term incremental funds, but the long-term effect is uncertain. Overseas factors also affect the market, and the index is expected to remain volatile [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed lower, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds. Economic data indicates resilience, reducing the short-term expectation of interest rate cuts, and treasury bonds are expected to run bearishly in the short term [2] Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: IH, IF, IC, and IM all increased, with IC having the highest increase of 1.22% [3] - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased, with the CSI 500 having the highest increase of 0.85% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS, TF, T, and TL showed different changes, with TL remaining unchanged [3] - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bonds all increased [3] Market News - The S&P 500 hit a new high, while the Nasdaq was dragged down by the tech sector. Gold returned to $3400, and domestic coking coal futures continued to soar [4] - Trump announced trade agreements with Japan and the Philippines, with tariff rates of 15% and 19% respectively [5][6] - Trump's stance on "firing Powell" softened, and he and Bessent pressured the Fed to cut interest rates [6] - The domestic commodity market had a collective rally, with six varieties hitting the daily limit [7] Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM [8][9][10] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates of treasury bond futures [15][16][18] - **Exchange Rates**: The report includes charts of various exchange rates, such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, the euro against the Chinese yuan, and cross - currency exchange rates [22][23][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The 2509 contract of Treasury bond futures is rated neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious, and Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Affected by the strong stock market, the risk appetite has recovered, suppressing the bond market. The delay of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the increase in global trade uncertainty have added uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between stable - growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8] - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 430.22 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 4.06 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.95%; M2 year - on - year is 8.30%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.40% and a growth rate of 5.06%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% and a growth rate of 0.40% [9] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 97.86, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 and a decline rate of - 0.61%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1795, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.004 and a decline rate of - 0.05%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.48, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of - 1.14%; DR007 is 1.49, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of - 1.10%; R007 is 1.68, with a month - on - month increase of 0.04 and a growth rate of 2.35%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.54, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.22%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.22% [9] 3.2 Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview - On July 21, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.42 yuan, 105.96 yuan, 108.76 yuan, and 119.97 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.01%, - 0.05%, - 0.05%, and - 0.46% respectively. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was - 0.018 yuan, - 0.001 yuan, - 0.031 yuan, and - 0.044 yuan respectively [2] 3.3 Money Market Fundamentals - On July 21, 2025, the central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. The main - term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.366%, 1.477%, 1.571%, and 1.534% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [1] 3.4 Spread Overview - The report presents various spread - related charts, including the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures varieties, and the relationships between spot - bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [41][43][44] 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, and the relationship between the TS main contract's IRR and the fund interest rate [46][49] 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the TF main contract's IRR and the fund interest rate, and the TF main contract's basis and net basis trends in the past three years [55][58] 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the T main contract's IRR and the fund interest rate, and the T main contract's basis and net basis trends in the past three years [63][66] 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the TL main contract's IRR and the fund interest rate, and the TL main contract's basis and net basis trends in the past three years [71][74][76]

Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.46% at 119.970 yuan, the 10-year main contract down 0.05% at 108.760 yuan, the 5-year main contract down 0.05% at 105.955 yuan, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01% at 102.420 yuan [1] - As of 17:00, the yield on the 30-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 02" rose by 1.4 basis points to 1.887%, the yield on the 10-year government development bond "25 National Development 10" rose by 1.05 basis points to 1.7525%, and the yield on the 10-year government bond "25 Coupon Government Bond 11" rose by 0.95 basis points to 1.6735% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 170.7 billion yuan at a fixed rate, with a bidding amount of 170.7 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 170.7 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 226.2 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan [2] - The overnight repurchase weighted rate (DR001) fell by nearly 10 basis points to around 1.35%, indicating a gradual return to a balanced but slightly loose liquidity environment post-tax period [2] News Developments - On July 19, the groundbreaking ceremony for the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project was held in Linzhi City, Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan for the construction of five tiered power stations [3] - The project primarily focuses on power transmission and consumption outside Tibet while also addressing local demand [3] - The stock market opened high and continued to trend upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.72%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.86%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.87% [3] - A total trading volume of 1.73 trillion yuan was recorded, up from 1.59 trillion yuan the previous day, with 4,000 stocks gaining and the number of stocks hitting the daily limit reaching a two-month high [3] Operational Suggestions - Recent policies against excessive competition and the commencement of large infrastructure projects have boosted the commodity and equity markets, leading to a recovery in risk appetite that may suppress the bond market [4] - Current fundamental data shows a supply-demand divergence, with production continuing to rise, positively impacting quarterly GDP performance, but nominal growth is hindered by low inflation, affecting corporate profits and real economic sentiment [4] - The period of July to August may see a new round of stable real estate policies, government investment expansion, and tariff negotiations, indicating a complex macroeconomic outlook [4] - The bond market is expected to remain in a range-bound phase due to the lack of a clear main trend, with the T2509 contract focusing on support around 108.6 [4] - A cautious approach is recommended in the short term, monitoring funding conditions and incremental policy developments, while considering a potential shift towards a looser funding environment [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of the performance and investment strategy of the Bosera Double Monthly Enjoy 60-Day Rolling Bond Fund for the second quarter of 2025, highlighting its focus on maximizing returns while managing risks in a favorable bond market environment [1][10]. Fund Overview - Fund Name: Bosera Double Monthly Enjoy 60-Day Rolling Bond Fund - Fund Manager: Bosera Fund Management Co., Ltd. - Fund Custodian: China Postal Savings Bank Co., Ltd. - Total Fund Shares at Period End: 3,671,367,885.46 shares [1][3]. Investment Objectives and Strategies - The fund aims to achieve returns exceeding its benchmark through a combination of top-down and bottom-up analysis, utilizing both qualitative and quantitative methods [2]. - Investment strategies include term structure strategy, credit strategy, swap strategy, spread strategy, and individual bond selection strategy, with a focus on maximizing credit premium while controlling interest rate risk [2]. Performance Metrics - The fund's performance is benchmarked against a composite index: 85% of the China Bond Composite Wealth Index (for maturities under one year) and 15% of the after-tax one-year fixed deposit rate [2]. - Net Value Growth Rates for the past periods: - Last 3 months: 0.57% - Last 6 months: 0.88% - Last year: 2.36% - Last 3 years: 9.71% [5]. Financial Indicators - As of June 30, 2025, the net value of Class A shares is 1.1339 CNY, and Class C shares is 1.1251 CNY [11]. - The fund's total assets include 94.30% in bonds, with no holdings in stocks or asset-backed securities [13]. Market Environment - The bond market experienced a downward trend in yields during the second quarter, influenced by external demand uncertainties and a shift in central bank policy towards stabilizing growth [10][11]. - The current market conditions are deemed favorable for bonds, with expectations of potential monetary easing measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [11]. Management Report - The fund management adheres to regulations and maintains a commitment to fair trading practices, ensuring no unfair trading or conflicts of interest occurred during the reporting period [10]. - The fund manager has not engaged in any transactions involving the fund's own capital during the reporting period [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the bond market's performance was mainly influenced by changes in the capital market and the stock - bond "seesaw" effect. The central bank's actions to smooth out liquidity fluctuations sent a positive signal, while the strong performance of the equity market led to weaker long - term bond performance in the second half of the week. Short - duration assets with better defensive properties performed relatively well [3][96]. - The traditional factors such as fundamentals, liquidity, fiscal supply, and external shocks may not be the main constraints for the bond market to show "seasonal weakness" in the third quarter. Currently, the loose liquidity pattern and the central bank's decision to cancel the freeze on bond repurchase collateral may revitalize more bonds and provide a better foundation for restarting treasury bond trading. The bond market may maintain a volatile and relatively strong situation with "less downward resistance and more upward pressure" [3][98]. - With the implementation of the insurance's predetermined interest rate cut, the allocation motivation of insurance funds is expected to further increase, which may be an important force driving the bond market to rise. In terms of strategies, an investment portfolio of "short - credit + long - term local bonds" can be considered. For trading, the current 10 - year (250011) and 30 - year (2500002) treasury bond active bonds can be selected as the main trading targets [3][99]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Matters - On July 14, the central bank announced a 1400 - billion - yuan open - market outright reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 200 billion yuan in July, and the balance of outright reverse repurchases after deducting maturities was 4.8 trillion yuan [6]. - On July 14, the central bank official mentioned that small and medium - sized banks' bond investment should maintain a reasonable "degree" [9]. - On July 16, it was announced that China's GDP growth rate in the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, with the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries growing at 3.7%, 5.3%, and 5.5% respectively [9]. - On July 19, the central bank drafted a decision to modify some regulations, including clarifying the legal status of Shanghai Clearing House, canceling the freeze on bond repurchase collateral, and modifying information disclosure regulations for financial bonds [12]. - From July 14 - 15, the Central Urban Work Conference was held, deploying seven key tasks for urban work [13]. - On July 19, it was reported that China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd. was established to promote the construction of a 1.2 - trillion - yuan hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River [16]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations and Fund Rate Trends - From July 14 - 18, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operation had a net investment of 130.11 billion yuan. From July 21 - 25, it is expected that 204.68 billion yuan of base currency will mature and be withdrawn [17][18]. - During the tax period last week, the central bank's actions led to a change in the capital market from tight to loose. As of July 11, compared with July 4, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 changed by 3.88BP, 0.86BP, 2.81BP, and 0.58BP respectively [22]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situation - In the primary market, last week, CDs ended three consecutive weeks of net outflows, with a net financing of 144.37 billion yuan. The state - owned banks had the largest CD issuance scale, with a net financing of 64.84 billion yuan [24][28]. - Affected by the tax period, the average issuance rate of 1 - year CDs of state - owned and joint - stock banks increased by about 2.94BP compared with the previous week. In the secondary market, due to the stock - bond "seesaw" effect, short - duration assets were more defensive, and CD yields were generally declining [30][34]. 3.3 Bond Market 3.3.1 Primary Market - On July 14, the 4th and 5th ultra - long - term special treasury bonds were issued, with marginal interest rates of 1.92% and 1.9% respectively. The net financing rhythm of local government bonds was slower than that of treasury bonds. As of July 18, the cumulative net financing of various treasury bonds in 2025 was about 3.83 trillion yuan, and that of local bonds was about 4.70 trillion yuan. The supply of local government bonds in the third quarter may be postponed [36][37]. - Last week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds decreased, while that of local bonds increased. The total net financing of interest - rate bonds was 200.565 billion yuan, with treasury bonds at 58.15 billion yuan, local bonds at 207.795 billion yuan, and policy - bank bonds at - 65.38 billion yuan [45]. - As of last week, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds in 2025 had reached 1.83 trillion yuan, mainly in long - and ultra - long - term maturities [47]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market - The central bank's actions eased the tight capital market, but the stock - bond "seesaw" effect made short - rate bonds perform better, and the term spread widened. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds changed by - 2.12BP, - 1.15BP, - 0.36BP, - 1.10BP, - 0.01BP, and 1.44BP respectively [50]. - The liquidity premium between the active and sub - active 10 - year treasury and policy - bank bonds narrowed. The long - and ultra - long - term treasury - local bond spread narrowed, mainly due to the increase in long - term treasury bond supply [58][66]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the leveraged trading scale decreased due to the tax period, with an average of about 7.24 trillion yuan. Rural commercial banks, funds, and insurance were the top three buyers in the interest - rate bond market. Rural commercial banks preferred defensive assets within 10 years, funds implemented a "dumbbell strategy", and insurance increased the allocation of long - term local bonds [67][81]. - In May 2025, the overall leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market was about 118.46%, with commercial banks, securities companies, and other institutions at about 110.53%, 183.89%, and 131.06% respectively [67]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar futures increased by 0.92% week - on - week, wire rod futures decreased by 4.29%, cathode copper futures decreased by 1.01%, the cement price index decreased by 2.10%, and the Nanhua Glass Index increased by 4.44%. The CCFI index decreased by 0.77%, and the BDI index increased by 42.66%. The pork wholesale price increased by 0.63%, and the vegetable wholesale price increased by 0.23%. Brent crude oil futures increased by 3.76%, and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 1.23%. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.15 [91][95].

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend in the A-share market shows a significant shift of funds from bond funds to equity investments, driven by the strong performance of the stock market and the "stock-bond seesaw" effect [1][4]. Fund Redemption - Since July, over 25 bond funds have announced an increase in net asset value precision due to large-scale redemptions [2][3]. - On July 18, several fund companies, including Manulife and Yuanxin Yongfeng, reported large redemptions in their bond funds, leading to adjustments in net asset value precision [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The stock market has been on the rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points, attracting investors seeking higher returns [1][4]. - The bond market has not maintained the strong performance seen in the previous year, leading to increased volatility and dissatisfaction among bond fund investors [4]. Investor Behavior - Fund managers are adjusting their strategies in response to the changing market conditions, focusing on liquidity management and investor sentiment [4]. - The increase in net asset value precision is a protective measure for remaining investors, ensuring that they are less affected by the precision of net asset values during large redemptions [4]. Outlook for the Second Half - There is optimism regarding the equity market in the second half of the year, with a focus on technology stocks and high-dividend sectors [5][6]. - Fund managers expect a rotation in industry focus, with an emphasis on sectors like consumer electronics, AI computing, and high-dividend stocks, which are seen as having stable cash flows and defensive attributes [6].

Market Dynamics - The equity market has been experiencing an upward trend since mid-April, with a strengthening stock-bond seesaw effect [1] - Multiple equity funds have announced early closures for fundraising, indicating strong demand and a shift in investor interest towards equity products [2] Fundraising Trends - Over 10 equity funds have reported early fundraising closures in July, with reasons including meeting fundraising targets and the desire to quickly establish funds to seize investment opportunities [2] - Notable fund launches include two actively managed equity funds that raised over 2 billion yuan, with specific figures of 2.461 billion yuan and 2.082 billion yuan for respective funds [2] Bond Fund Challenges - Some bond funds have extended their fundraising periods due to challenges, while others have failed to meet fundraising targets [3] - A significant number of existing bond funds have faced large redemptions, prompting announcements to adjust net asset values [3] Innovation in Equity Products - The current fundraising landscape shows a dominance of equity funds, with 60 out of 80 funds being equity-related as of mid-July [4] - Recent approvals for innovative equity products include the first batch of Shanghai Stock Exchange 580 ETFs and related funds, indicating a focus on mid-cap and small-cap growth opportunities [4] Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - Research indicates a high level of congestion in the bond market, with funds flowing into long-term government bonds, while the stock market remains attractive due to favorable price-performance ratios [5] - Confidence among investors in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is gradually recovering, driven by a scarcity of investable assets in a liquidity-rich environment [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall economic data is positive, which drives the stock market to rise. The A - share major indexes and stock index futures all increased this week, with small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. The bond market is under pressure due to the strong performance of the equity market, but the long - term bullish foundation of the bond market remains intact considering the weak economic fundamentals, balanced and loose capital, and low inflation [6]. - The U.S. dollar may rebound in the short - term but is likely to remain weak in the medium - term due to factors such as tariff - related inflation risks, profit compression of enterprises, and structural contradictions. The recovery momentum of the eurozone and Japan is different, and trade frictions have affected market confidence [10]. - China's economic growth in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, with manufacturing and domestic demand driving the economy. Fixed - asset investment is stable, but the real estate market needs further improvement [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - **Stock**: The A - share major indexes and four stock index futures all increased this week, with small and medium - cap stocks stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks. The release of positive economic data promoted the rise of the stock market. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. - **Bond**: This week, the bond futures showed a pattern of short - term strength and long - term weakness. The equity market's strength suppressed the bond market sentiment, but the long - term bullish foundation of the bond market remains. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. - **Commodity**: The commodity market may strengthen further due to factors such as the GDP growth meeting expectations and the approaching Politburo meeting. The allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [6]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The U.S. dollar is in a volatile and slightly stronger trend, while the euro and the euro - dollar futures decreased. The short - term pressure on the euro and yen is affected by the U.S. dollar's rebound. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Domestic**: China's macro - policies have achieved results, and the economic growth in the first half of the year exceeded expectations. The Ministry of Finance issued a notice to guide long - term and stable investment of insurance funds, which is beneficial to the capital market [11][14]. - **International**: Trump announced tariffs on Canadian goods, and the U.S. and Indonesia reached a tariff agreement. The EU prepared to impose counter - tariffs on U.S. goods, and the Fed's "Beige Book" showed a slightly pessimistic economic outlook [16]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: In June, the export and import rates improved, the M1 and M2 money supply increased, the second - quarter GDP growth rate was 5.2%, and the industrial added value increased by 6.8%. However, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment and social consumption decreased [17]. - **U.S.**: In June, the CPI met expectations, the PPI decreased, and the initial jobless claims in the week ending July 12 were lower than expected [17]. - **EU**: In May, the industrial output increased, and the June CPI remained stable [17]. - **UK**: In June, the retail price index increased, and the unemployment rate slightly rose [17]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data such as China's one - year loan prime rate, U.S. existing home sales, eurozone central bank deposit rate, and UK consumer confidence index will be released [82]. 3.5 Central Bank's Open Market Operations This week, the central bank conducted 172.68 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 52.57 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net injection of 120.11 billion yuan [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading of positive policy expectations in the stock and bond markets continues. In the stock index futures market, the trading of positive policy expectations persists, and it is recommended to hold long positions in IM before the Politburo meeting in July. In the stock index options market, it is advisable to mainly adopt a far - month covered call strategy for defense. In the treasury bond futures market, the yield curve continues to steepen, and in the medium - term, the odds of steepening the curve are relatively high [1][2][6][7][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **View**: The trading of positive policy expectations continues. The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM for the current month changed by 5.51 points, 7.44 points, 10.53 points, and 18.99 points respectively compared to the previous trading day; the inter - period spreads (current month - next month) changed by - 5.6 points, 0 points, - 5.2 points, and - 0.6 points respectively; and the positions changed by 7308 lots, 3275 lots, 188 lots, and 5351 lots respectively. - **Logic**: On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index strengthened with increased trading volume reaching 1.5 trillion yuan. After the State Council Executive Meeting, the "anti - involution" theme continued to play out, and commodity prices of related and indirect varieties rebounded. Financial funds focused more on the expectation of policy intensification. The expansion of domestic demand was also a policy focus, leading to speculation in the consumer sector. The market sentiment was positive, with offensive sectors leading the rise and defensive sectors leading the decline. Since the expectation of policy intensification is difficult to be falsified, it is recommended to hold long positions in IM. - **Operation Suggestion**: Allocate long positions in IM [6]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **View**: Mainly adopt a far - month covered call strategy for defense. - **Logic**: The equity index oscillated and strengthened. The ChiNext Index rose 1.75%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.14%. The trading volume of each option variety was relatively stable. The implied volatility of far - month options continued to decline. Although selling far - month call options showed floating losses, they still had relatively high absolute returns compared to the index increase. It can be inferred that the market mainly traded far - month call option selling. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a covered call strategy [7]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **View**: The yield curve continues to steepen. The trading volume and positions of T, TF, TS, and TL for the current quarter changed, and the inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads, and basis also had corresponding changes. The central bank conducted 4505 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 900 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing. - **Logic**: On Thursday, most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.02%, the 10 - year main contract up 0.02%, the 5 - year main contract up 0.02%, and the 2 - year main contract up 0.01%. The central bank's large - scale net injection of 3605 billion yuan in the open market was beneficial to the short - end of the bond market, while the rise of the equity market and high risk appetite were negative for the long - end of the bond market, causing the curve to steepen. In the short - term, the bond market may remain volatile. After the tax period, the loosening of the capital side will support the short - end, while the long - end may be cautious due to improved risk appetite and government bond supply. The Politburo meeting at the end of the month may also affect the long - end. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: Maintain a volatile outlook. Hedging strategy: Pay attention to short - side hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: Appropriately pay attention to the widening of the basis. Curve strategy: The odds of steepening the curve are higher in the medium - term [7][8][9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - China's export amount year - on - year in June was 5.8% (previous value 4.8%, forecast 3.21%); new RMB loans in June were 22400 billion yuan (previous value 6200 billion yuan, forecast 18447.29 billion yuan); industrial added value year - on - year in June was 6.8% (previous value 5.8%, forecast 5.49%). The US CPI seasonally adjusted year - on - year in June was 2.7% (previous value 2.4%, forecast 2.7%) [10]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Tariffs**: US President Trump said on July 16 that the US might implement the tariff rate on Japan as previously stated in the letter and might soon reach a trade agreement with India. The US plans to impose a 25% tariff on Japanese imports starting from August 1. - **Digital Currency Products**: On July 17, Huaxia Fund (Hong Kong) announced the establishment of two tokenized money market funds denominated in US dollars and RMB respectively. The Huaxia RMB Digital Currency Fund is the world's first RMB - tokenized fund. - **Brokerage Technology Application**: The Securities Association of China launched a special survey on the information technology work of brokerage branches to promote the standardization and efficiency improvement of information technology construction and management in branches. - **EU Budget**: The European Commission announced a new budget proposal from 2028 to 2034, with a total amount of 2 trillion euros, a significant increase compared to the current 1.21 trillion euros. Most of the funds will come from EU member states, and the European Commission proposed several fundraising plans, which have been questioned by multiple member states [10][11][12].