30年期国债ETF
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从“卖产品”到“造生态”!5万亿市场加码生态圈建设
证券时报· 2026-03-26 08:51
Core Viewpoint - The ETF market is transitioning from a focus on individual product sales to a comprehensive ecosystem approach, emphasizing brand recognition and service capabilities to meet evolving investor demands [1][9]. Group 1: ETF Ecosystem Development - Fund companies are increasingly investing in building ETF ecosystems, marking a fundamental shift in competition logic within the ETF industry [2][4]. - Major fund companies like Jiashi Fund, China Merchants Fund, and Southern Fund are actively enhancing their ETF ecosystems through product family development, brand IP creation, and service system upgrades [4][5]. Group 2: Trends in ETF Ecosystem Construction - The ETF ecosystem is evolving in four distinct trends: product differentiation, service enhancement, educational engagement, and operational synergy [10][11]. - Product ecosystems are shifting towards combination and differentiation, with leading public funds focusing on creating diverse product matrices rather than just popular single products [11][12]. - Service ecosystems are extending towards "refined, full-process" offerings, with public institutions increasing service investments to provide comprehensive support for investors [13]. Group 3: Brand Recognition and Competitive Advantage - The branding of ETFs is becoming crucial, as the industry moves towards a unified naming convention that emphasizes the fund manager's brand, thereby increasing its influence on investor decisions [6][5]. - The transition to an ecosystem approach is not merely a marketing tactic but a long-term strategy aimed at fostering investor loyalty through integrated product, service, and educational offerings [15].
从“卖产品”到“造生态”!5万亿市场加码生态圈建设
券商中国· 2026-03-26 06:15
Core Viewpoint - The ETF industry is transitioning from a focus on individual product sales to a comprehensive ecosystem approach, emphasizing brand recognition and service capabilities to meet evolving investor demands [1][2][7]. Group 1: ETF Ecosystem Development - Fund companies are increasingly investing in building ETF ecosystems, with notable actions from firms like Jiashi Fund, CMB Fund, Southern Fund, and Ping An Fund, focusing on product family enhancement, brand IP creation, and service system upgrades [3][4]. - Jiashi Fund has created an immersive investment education ecosystem, exemplified by the successful "Jiashi Super Index Festival," which integrates product promotion and investor education [3]. - Ping An Fund has launched a brand renewal initiative, aiming to create a one-stop ETF investment ecosystem in collaboration with Ping An Securities, highlighting the importance of brand recognition in investment decisions [4]. Group 2: Shift in Competitive Logic - The ETF market is moving from a competition based on "first-mover advantage" to one focused on building a comprehensive ecosystem that includes products, services, and investor education [5][7]. - The traditional model of competing through individual products is becoming less sustainable as the market expands and product homogenization increases, leading to a need for a more integrated approach [6][7]. Group 3: Trends in ETF Ecosystem Construction - The construction of the ETF ecosystem is showing four distinct trends: product differentiation, service enhancement, operational synergy, and educational innovation [8]. - Leading public funds are shifting towards creating diversified product matrices rather than focusing solely on popular single products, which allows for more effective competition [8][9]. - The service ecosystem is evolving to provide comprehensive, fine-tuned support for investors, with many firms launching dedicated service applications to enhance user experience [10][11]. Group 4: Educational Innovations - The educational approach within the ETF ecosystem is becoming more engaging and scenario-based, moving away from traditional methods to include interactive and immersive experiences [10][11]. - The emphasis on brand building is not merely about renaming products but involves a deep integration of product features, service capabilities, and educational efforts to foster investor loyalty [11].
构建永久投资组合,轻松偿还房贷
集思录· 2026-03-02 14:22
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a personal investment strategy aimed at managing mortgage repayments while maintaining a decent quality of life, particularly through the establishment of a dedicated investment portfolio to generate funds for monthly mortgage payments [1][3][12]. Group 1: Mortgage and Financial Situation - The individual took a loan of 450,000 yuan to purchase a two-bedroom apartment, with a total price of 752,000 yuan, and has seen a nearly 20% decline in property value over two years [1]. - The mortgage is structured as an equal principal repayment over 22 years, with a remaining principal of approximately 406,261.42 yuan as of March 2026 [1][6]. - The individual expresses a desire to improve living standards and travel, rather than living frugally to pay off the mortgage [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Inspired by a pension withdrawal strategy, the individual plans to create a dedicated investment account to generate monthly funds for mortgage repayments, thus freeing up salary for living expenses [3]. - The investment strategy involves a modified permanent portfolio consisting of 40% stocks, 40% bonds, and 20% gold, aiming for an annualized return of around 12% [5][12]. - The selected assets include long-term government bonds, gold ETFs, and various stock ETFs, with a focus on cash flow and dividend quality [4][6]. Group 3: Portfolio Management - The individual has established a specific asset allocation and will adjust the portfolio based on market conditions, particularly focusing on maintaining a balance to meet mortgage repayment needs [9][10]. - A dynamic allocation strategy is proposed, adjusting the proportion of convertible bonds and cash based on market valuation, with strict adherence to a defined discipline for asset allocation [10][11]. - The goal is to achieve an annualized return of at least 8% to cover the mortgage repayment requirements while preserving and potentially growing the principal [12][13].
债券ETF周度跟踪(2.9-2.13):春季配置需求回归,债券ETF有望扩张-20260224
Southwest Securities· 2026-02-24 02:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The bond ETF market has a positive sentiment, with the net inflow amount turning positive. After the seasonal capital outflows at the beginning of the year, the scale of bond ETFs is expected to expand again with the return of institutional spring allocation demand and key policies set by the "Two Sessions". Different types of bond ETFs have different development prospects [2][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Various Bond ETF Fund Inflows - Market sentiment is positive, and the net inflow of bond ETFs has turned positive. Last week, the net inflows of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were +5.098 billion yuan, +14.212 billion yuan, and +0.587 billion yuan respectively, with a total net inflow of 19.896 billion yuan in the bond ETF market. Looking ahead, the scale of bond ETFs is expected to expand [2][5]. - Short - term financing ETFs, treasury - bond ETFs, and urban investment bond ETFs led in net inflows last week, while the net inflows of science and technology innovation bond ETFs and benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs were still negative but significantly reduced [6]. 3.2 Share and Net Value Trends of Various Bond ETFs and Representative Products - Before the holiday, funds had a high demand for flexibility, and the share of short - term financing ETFs increased. As of February 13, 2026, the shares of various bond ETFs changed to varying degrees, with a total change of +3.1% compared to the previous week and +3.3% compared to the end of last month [12][19]. - The net values of major bond ETFs generally increased. Taking the largest - scale products in each type of bond ETF as representatives, their net values increased compared to the previous week and the end of last month [22]. 3.3 Share and Net Value Trends of Each Benchmark Market - Making Credit - Bond ETF - There was no significant change in the shares. Among the 8 existing products, the shares of 7 remained unchanged, and one decreased by 3.97% compared to the previous week [26]. - The net values increased significantly. The net values of the 8 credit - bond ETFs increased by 0.10% - 0.17% compared to the previous week and 0.13% - 0.18% compared to the end of last month [28]. 3.4 Share and Net Value Trends of Each Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF - The scale of share outflows significantly shrank. The net inflow of shares last week was -3.78 million shares, a -0.14% change compared to the previous week. Some products had net outflows, while others had net inflows [30]. - The net values continued to rise. The median net values of the first - batch and second - batch science and technology innovation bond ETFs increased by 0.13% compared to the previous week, and the median net values of products tracking different indexes also increased [33]. 3.5 Market Performance of Single Bond ETFs Last Week - The net values generally increased, with convertible - bond ETFs leading the rise. The convertible - bond ETF and the Shanghai - Stock - Exchange convertible - bond ETF led in net - value increases, and some products had positive premium rates [35]. - In terms of scale changes, short - term financing ETFs, urban investment bond ETFs, and treasury - and - policy - financial - bond ETFs had the highest net inflows [35]. 3.6 Marginal Changes in the PCF Lists of Benchmark Market - Making Credit - Bond and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs - For benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs, the estimated modified duration of Haifutong Credit - Bond ETF changed relatively significantly (-0.12 years). Some bonds were repeatedly included or excluded from the PCF list, and Huaxia Credit - Bond ETF changed the cash - substitution flag to "must" on some trading days [38][39]. - For science and technology innovation bond ETFs, the estimated modified durations of Tianhong and Guangfa Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs changed relatively significantly (+0.09 years and +0.07 years respectively). Some bonds were repeatedly included or excluded from the PCF list, and China Merchants Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF changed the cash - substitution flag to "must" on some trading days [40][44].
年内新成立公募FOF达31只 同比增长244.44%
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2026-02-12 16:13
Core Viewpoint - The public fund of funds (FOF) industry is experiencing rapid expansion, with a significant increase in the number of newly established funds driven by strong demand for stable and value-added investment products and continuous product innovation [1][2]. Group 1: Market Activity - On February 11 and 12, eight public fund institutions launched a total of nine new public FOFs, contributing to a total of 31 new public FOFs established in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 244.44% [1][2]. - The new public FOF market is active, with 13 public FOFs announcing early closure of fundraising this year [2]. Group 2: Investor Demand - In a low-interest-rate environment, traditional bank deposit yields are insufficient to meet investor needs, leading to a significant rise in demand for stable, low-volatility products [2]. - Public FOFs are becoming key vehicles for "deposit migration" funds, as they allow for cross-asset and multi-strategy allocation [2]. Group 3: Product Innovation - The asset allocation dimensions of public FOFs have expanded, with continuous product innovation, including the growth of ETF-FOF products that combine the advantages of both ETFs and FOFs [3]. - The configuration logic of public FOFs has evolved from a traditional stock-bond binary structure to a more diversified approach, including A-shares, QDII funds, public REITs, and commodity funds [3]. Group 4: Institutional Strategy - Public institutions are shifting their FOF product strategies towards cross-market, cross-asset, low-volatility, and high-liquidity configurations, focusing on building a "multi-asset + quantitative + systematic" capability [4]. - The traditional three-tier division of labor in FOF investment is evolving into a two-tier structure or even eliminating the division, allowing FOF managers to directly engage in asset allocation and seek excess returns [4][5].
神秘资金出手!
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-12-18 05:50
Core Insights - A significant inflow of capital into stock ETFs occurred, with a net inflow of 19.11 billion yuan on December 17, marking a new high for the month [2][3] - The A500 ETF, particularly from Huatai-PB, saw a net inflow exceeding 3.2 billion yuan, contributing to the overall market rally [7] Group 1: ETF Market Overview - As of December 17, the total scale of stock ETFs (including cross-border ETFs) reached 4.4 trillion yuan, with a total of 1,274 stock ETFs in the market [3] - The total number of shares in the stock ETF market increased by 12.843 billion shares, reflecting strong market activity [3] Group 2: Fund Inflows by Type - Broad-based ETFs and bond ETFs led the inflows, with net inflows of 16.39 billion yuan and 7.08 billion yuan, respectively, while thematic industry ETFs experienced a net outflow of 1.12 billion yuan [5] - ETFs tracking the CSI A500 index saw a net inflow of 11.11 billion yuan, with over 28.3 billion yuan flowing into these ETFs over the last five trading days [5] Group 3: Leading Fund Companies - E Fund's ETF reached a scale of 824.39 billion yuan, with an increase of 15.61 billion yuan on the previous day [6] - Notable inflows were observed in E Fund's A500 ETF (8.2 billion yuan), Huashang Fund's A500 ETF (7.41 billion yuan), and other major ETFs [6][7] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The CSI A500 ETF is viewed as an attractive investment option due to its comprehensive coverage of various industries and strong dividend contributions [7] - The market is expected to stabilize in the short term, with a focus on low-expectation technology sectors and industries with potential catalysts, such as brokerage and aerospace [8]
今年要被债基玩死了……
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-02 10:02
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of various bond funds in 2023, highlighting significant losses in certain categories, particularly in government bond funds and long-term bond funds, due to rising yields and market conditions. Group 1: Index Bond Funds - The 30-year government bond ETF has declined by approximately 4%, while the benchmark market-making government bond ETF has dropped by 0.65% [2] - The main contributors to the decline are the rising yields of government bonds, with the 5-year government bond yield increasing from 1.41% to 1.61%, a rise of 19 basis points, and the national development bond yield increasing from 1.47% to 1.79%, a rise of 32 basis points [2] - The "Dacheng Interbank Certificate of Deposit Index 7-Day Holding" has a small scale of only 4 million yuan, leading to losses as investment returns do not cover fund expenses [2] Group 2: Short-term Bond Funds - Short-term bond funds have averaged a return of 1.4%, with two funds reporting losses and 16 funds yielding less than 0.5% [3] - The two funds that lost money are small in scale, and their low size has led to high expense ratios eating into profits [3] Group 3: Long-term Bond Funds - Among 2019 long-term bond funds, 257 have reported losses, accounting for 12.7% of the total [4] - Long-term bond funds have averaged a return of 0.97%, which is about 0.4% lower than short-term bond funds [4] - The primary reason for the losses is the heavy investment in long-duration government bonds and policy financial bonds [5] Group 4: Market Conditions - The yield on 30-year government bonds is currently at 2.2%, with a low of 1.8% earlier this year, resulting in an average annual coupon yield of around 2% [6] - The maximum drawdown for the 30-year government bond index has been 16.75%, with a maximum drawdown of 6.41% this year, indicating a low investment value for long-duration government bonds [6] - Fund managers have been increasing the duration of their bond funds, which is seen as a risky move given the current yield environment [6] Group 5: Overall Market Sentiment - The overall market is still in an adjustment phase, with recent weak rebounds not indicating an end to the adjustment [11] - There is a lack of excitement in the market, with many sectors experiencing declines after previous rebounds, suggesting a cooling of market sentiment [11] - Despite the potential for further declines, there may be limited downside due to external funds eyeing investment opportunities [12]
国泰海通|策略:节后外资和融资资金回流市场
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-10-14 14:08
Core Viewpoint - After the holiday, foreign and financing funds have returned to the Chinese market, with a notable increase in trading activity and a preference for technology and cyclical sectors, particularly electronics and non-ferrous metals [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Activity - Market sentiment has significantly improved, with average daily trading volume rising to 2.6 billion and the average number of stocks hitting the daily limit up to 71.6 [3]. - The proportion of stocks that increased in value has risen to 54.1%, with the median weekly return for all A-shares increasing to 0.4% [3]. - Industry trading concentration has continued to rise, with 11 industries having turnover rates in the historical top 10% [3]. Group 2: Fund Flows - After the holiday, foreign capital inflow reached 3.0 billion USD, with northbound trading accounting for 30.5% of total trading volume [4]. - Public funds saw a decrease in new issuance to 870 million, while private fund confidence slightly declined, nearing the highest levels of the year [4]. - The net inflow of ETF funds totaled 37.7 billion over the past four trading days, maintaining a high level of passive trading [4]. Group 3: Sector Preferences - Foreign capital has shown a strong preference for electronics (+3.47 billion) and non-ferrous metals (+2.04 billion), while sectors like household appliances and banks experienced outflows [5]. - Financing activities also favored electronics (+10.85 billion) and non-ferrous metals (+6.58 billion), with a slight outflow in the comprehensive sector [5]. - The top sectors for ETF inflows included non-bank financials (+3.74 billion) and power equipment (+2.89 billion), while communication and computing sectors saw outflows [5]. Group 4: Hong Kong and Global Fund Flows - Southbound capital inflow decreased to 2.65 billion, marking a significant drop since 2022 [6]. - Global capital flows indicate a marginal inflow into developed markets, with the US and China receiving the most inflows [6]. - The overall trend shows a preference for North American funds, particularly in pharmaceuticals and financial sectors, while technology funds experienced outflows [6].
逾10只纯债基金下跌逾3%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-14 23:14
Group 1 - The bond market has been experiencing a continuous decline, leading to significant redemption pressure on certain pure bond funds, with over 20 funds facing large redemptions in the past month [2] - As of September 12, more than 10 pure bond funds have seen their net value drop by over 3% since the beginning of the second half of the year, with some funds experiencing declines exceeding 5% [1][2] - The main reasons for the bond market adjustment include the strong performance of the stock market attracting funds away from bonds, and rising inflation expectations due to the implementation of "anti-involution" policies [2] Group 2 - The 30-year and 10-year government bond futures have seen consecutive declines over the past two and a half months, with the 30-year futures down by 0.89% and the 10-year futures down by 0.19% in the last week [1] - Specific funds such as Huatai Baoxing Zunyi Rate Bond and Minsheng Jianyin Ruixia One-Year Open Bond have reported significant net value declines, indicating a broader trend among long-term rate bonds [1] - Fund companies have adjusted the net asset value precision for certain funds to protect the interests of fund holders amid the ongoing market adjustments [2]
流动性和机构行为系列之二:存款和非银资金搬家能持续多久?
Western Securities· 2025-09-10 10:47
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - Since 2025, products such as wealth management, fixed-income plus, and equity have attracted significant funds. Money market funds and bond funds have seen a notable decline in net asset value growth, while fixed-income wealth management products continue to grow due to their yield advantage over time deposits. Insurance premium income growth was high before the reduction of the guaranteed interest rate but has since decreased. Equity and hybrid funds have maintained high-speed growth [1]. - Deposit relocation and stock market rallies often reinforce each other. The current deposit relocation is related to factors such as the reduction of deposit interest rates, regulatory bans on manual interest supplements, and the rise of the stock market. As the equity market continues to rise, deposit relocation accelerated in July [2]. - In the long term, non-bank institutions tend to adjust their asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment. For example, the proportion of pure fixed-income funds has decreased in the United States, Europe, and Japan during low-interest-rate periods. In China, the proportion of bond and money market funds among all public funds has decreased since 2025 as the absolute level of interest rates has declined and the profitability of bond assets has weakened [3]. - In the short term, the relocation of non-bank funds may slow down periodically. This can be observed from the following perspectives: the relative advantage of stocks over bonds may decrease as the stock market rises; the spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the policy rate has returned to the "normal" range; and an increase in the scale of 30-year ETFs and the long-short ratio of TL positions may indicate a slowdown in non-bank fund relocation [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Products such as wealth management, fixed-income plus, and equity attract significant funds 1.1 Decreased attractiveness of non-equity assets to funds - Cash management products have limited appeal. During the current deposit relocation period, money market funds have grown more than cash management wealth management products. Since 2025, the yields of both types of assets have dropped to low levels, with cash management wealth management products having an annualized yield of about 1.6% [12]. - The bond market's profitability has declined, but it still offers an advantage over time deposits. Since the end of 2023, bond funds and fixed-income wealth management products have grown rapidly. However, since 2025, the bond market has entered a "triple low" era of low interest rates, low spreads, and low volatility, leading to a decline in the profitability of pure bonds and a slowdown in the growth of bond fund scale. Currently, the annualized yield of pure bond funds is about 2.7%, and that of fixed-income plus funds is about 2.6%, still significantly higher than the time deposit rate of about 1% [12]. - The attractiveness of insurance products has diminished. After the reduction of the guaranteed interest rate in September, the "panic buying" effect has weakened. The market's response to this round of "panic buying" has been muted due to factors such as the establishment of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the guaranteed interest rate, the exhaustion of consumers' purchasing power from previous rounds of "panic buying," and the decreasing marginal impact of interest rate adjustments on consumers' willingness to move funds in a low-interest-rate environment [17]. 1.2 More funds may flow into the equity market - Equity funds have experienced high-speed growth, and the stock market is attractive to funds. Since September 2024, as the stock market has continued to rise, the net asset value of equity funds has maintained high-speed growth, and the growth rate of hybrid funds has turned positive. The yields of equity and hybrid products have been increasing, and they are expected to attract more funds in the future [22]. - In the future, more funds may flow into the equity market. In a low-interest-rate environment, equity assets are more cost-effective than pure bonds. As the equity market rises, the overall risk appetite has increased, and residents and non-bank funds may flow more into the equity market. Since July 2025, the increase in wealth management products has been lower than in previous years, indicating that more funds have flowed into other non-bank institutions and products. The risk appetite of non-bank institutions has increased significantly, as evidenced by the growth of convertible bond ETFs and the increase in institutional new account openings in the stock market [25]. II. How long will the relocation of deposits and non-bank funds continue? 2.1 Deposit relocation and stock market rallies often reinforce each other - The current deposit relocation is related to multiple factors, including the reduction of deposit interest rates, regulatory bans on manual interest supplements, and the rise of the stock market. Since 2022, there have been multiple rounds of deposit interest rate cuts. After the first four cuts, the last three cuts had a limited impact on deposit relocation. In 2024, the ban on manual interest supplements led to a significant decrease in deposit growth and a large increase in non-bank deposit growth, but the relocation reversed after the standardization of interbank deposit interest rates in November. The rise of the stock market has also driven deposit relocation. In September 2024, non-bank deposit growth increased significantly due to the stock market rally but then declined. In July 2025, the increase in risk appetite at home and abroad led to a rise in the equity market, and institutional funds and deposits moved from pure bonds to fixed-income plus and equity products, resulting in a significant increase in non-bank deposit growth [30][35]. - Deposit relocation accelerated in July as the equity market continued to rise. After the state-owned large banks initiated a new round of deposit interest rate cuts in May, deposit relocation was not obvious in June. However, in July, the combined deposits of residents and enterprises decreased by 2.57 trillion yuan, the highest in the past four years. Resident deposit growth decreased slightly, while non-bank deposit growth rebounded significantly to 15% [36]. - Deposit relocation may continue. Historically, deposit relocation has been significant during major stock market rallies, such as from 2005 - 2007, 2014 - 2015, 2016 - 2017, 2019 - 2021, and since September 2024. Even after the stock market reaches a peak and retraces, deposit relocation usually continues for some time. Since July, the stock market has risen significantly, and if it continues to rise, deposit relocation may persist [37]. 2.2 In the long term, non-bank institutions tend to adjust their asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment - Non-bank asset allocation adjustment is a typical feature of a low-interest-rate environment. In recent years, as broad-based interest rates have declined, the profitability of fixed-income assets such as bonds has gradually decreased. Driven by factors such as the introduction of policies to stabilize the capital market in September 2024, technological breakthroughs since 2025, and the expectation of "anti-involution" policies, the equity market has continued to break through, and non-bank institutional funds have shifted from pure fixed-income assets to equity and fixed-income plus assets [41]. - Similar trends have been observed in other countries. In the United States, during the two rounds of interest rate cuts from 2007 - 2016 and 2018 - 2021, the proportion of bond and money market mutual funds decreased from a high of 56% in 2008 to about 40% in 2021. In Europe, from 2012 - 2021, the proportion of bond and money market UCITS funds decreased from 45% in 2012 to about 36% at the end of 2021. In Japan, after entering a low-interest-rate era in the late 1990s, the scale of bond and money market funds declined rapidly, and their proportion decreased from a peak of 77% to about 7.0% in March 2024 [41][42][49]. - In China, the scale of bond and money market funds has grown rapidly in recent years, and their proportion among all public funds increased from about 55% to about 65% in 2024. However, since 2025, the proportion has decreased as the absolute level of interest rates has declined and the profitability of bond assets has weakened [49]. 2.3 In the short term, when will the relocation of non-bank funds slow down periodically? - The relocation of non-bank funds may slow down periodically as the equity market fluctuates and interest rates change. This can be observed from the following perspectives: - Stock-bond valuation and bond-credit valuation: As the stock market rises significantly, the relative advantage of stocks over bonds may decrease. As of the end of August, the risk premium of the WIND300 ex-financial index has decreased from more than two standard deviations above the mean to less than one standard deviation below the mean, and the risk premium of the dividend index has decreased to near two standard deviations below the mean. Insurance funds and other institutions may slow down the relocation of funds. Bonds still have a significant advantage over loans, and as the bond market rebounds from a low level, the cost of real economy financing continues to decline, making bonds attractive to banks [52]. - The spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the policy rate: Before 2024, the spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the 7-day reverse repurchase rate fluctuated around 70BP. In 2024, as broad-based interest rates declined, the spread was compressed to about 50BP. From December 2024 to January 2025, interest rates declined rapidly, further compressing the spread. Since 2025, the spread has oscillated between 10BP and 40BP. However, since late July, as the bond market has continued to rebound, the spread has gradually risen to about 45BP, returning to the "normal" range before 2025, indicating that the market has corrected the previously overdrawn expectations, and non-bank funds may slow down the selling of bonds [57]. - The scale of 30-year ETFs and the long-short ratio of TL positions: As the equity market rally slows down and interest rates rise, institutions are increasing their purchases of 30-year ETFs, and the long-short ratio of TL positions is rising. On the one hand, the growth of fixed-income plus products has increased the demand for 30-year ETFs. On the other hand, some institutions may buy 30-year ETFs and TL to hedge against equity market risks. When the scale of 30-year ETFs and the long-short ratio of TL positions continue to rise, it may indicate a slowdown in the relocation of non-bank funds [61].