Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - Since 2025, products such as wealth management, fixed-income plus, and equity have attracted significant funds. Money market funds and bond funds have seen a notable decline in net asset value growth, while fixed-income wealth management products continue to grow due to their yield advantage over time deposits. Insurance premium income growth was high before the reduction of the guaranteed interest rate but has since decreased. Equity and hybrid funds have maintained high-speed growth [1]. - Deposit relocation and stock market rallies often reinforce each other. The current deposit relocation is related to factors such as the reduction of deposit interest rates, regulatory bans on manual interest supplements, and the rise of the stock market. As the equity market continues to rise, deposit relocation accelerated in July [2]. - In the long term, non-bank institutions tend to adjust their asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment. For example, the proportion of pure fixed-income funds has decreased in the United States, Europe, and Japan during low-interest-rate periods. In China, the proportion of bond and money market funds among all public funds has decreased since 2025 as the absolute level of interest rates has declined and the profitability of bond assets has weakened [3]. - In the short term, the relocation of non-bank funds may slow down periodically. This can be observed from the following perspectives: the relative advantage of stocks over bonds may decrease as the stock market rises; the spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the policy rate has returned to the "normal" range; and an increase in the scale of 30-year ETFs and the long-short ratio of TL positions may indicate a slowdown in non-bank fund relocation [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Products such as wealth management, fixed-income plus, and equity attract significant funds 1.1 Decreased attractiveness of non-equity assets to funds - Cash management products have limited appeal. During the current deposit relocation period, money market funds have grown more than cash management wealth management products. Since 2025, the yields of both types of assets have dropped to low levels, with cash management wealth management products having an annualized yield of about 1.6% [12]. - The bond market's profitability has declined, but it still offers an advantage over time deposits. Since the end of 2023, bond funds and fixed-income wealth management products have grown rapidly. However, since 2025, the bond market has entered a "triple low" era of low interest rates, low spreads, and low volatility, leading to a decline in the profitability of pure bonds and a slowdown in the growth of bond fund scale. Currently, the annualized yield of pure bond funds is about 2.7%, and that of fixed-income plus funds is about 2.6%, still significantly higher than the time deposit rate of about 1% [12]. - The attractiveness of insurance products has diminished. After the reduction of the guaranteed interest rate in September, the "panic buying" effect has weakened. The market's response to this round of "panic buying" has been muted due to factors such as the establishment of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the guaranteed interest rate, the exhaustion of consumers' purchasing power from previous rounds of "panic buying," and the decreasing marginal impact of interest rate adjustments on consumers' willingness to move funds in a low-interest-rate environment [17]. 1.2 More funds may flow into the equity market - Equity funds have experienced high-speed growth, and the stock market is attractive to funds. Since September 2024, as the stock market has continued to rise, the net asset value of equity funds has maintained high-speed growth, and the growth rate of hybrid funds has turned positive. The yields of equity and hybrid products have been increasing, and they are expected to attract more funds in the future [22]. - In the future, more funds may flow into the equity market. In a low-interest-rate environment, equity assets are more cost-effective than pure bonds. As the equity market rises, the overall risk appetite has increased, and residents and non-bank funds may flow more into the equity market. Since July 2025, the increase in wealth management products has been lower than in previous years, indicating that more funds have flowed into other non-bank institutions and products. The risk appetite of non-bank institutions has increased significantly, as evidenced by the growth of convertible bond ETFs and the increase in institutional new account openings in the stock market [25]. II. How long will the relocation of deposits and non-bank funds continue? 2.1 Deposit relocation and stock market rallies often reinforce each other - The current deposit relocation is related to multiple factors, including the reduction of deposit interest rates, regulatory bans on manual interest supplements, and the rise of the stock market. Since 2022, there have been multiple rounds of deposit interest rate cuts. After the first four cuts, the last three cuts had a limited impact on deposit relocation. In 2024, the ban on manual interest supplements led to a significant decrease in deposit growth and a large increase in non-bank deposit growth, but the relocation reversed after the standardization of interbank deposit interest rates in November. The rise of the stock market has also driven deposit relocation. In September 2024, non-bank deposit growth increased significantly due to the stock market rally but then declined. In July 2025, the increase in risk appetite at home and abroad led to a rise in the equity market, and institutional funds and deposits moved from pure bonds to fixed-income plus and equity products, resulting in a significant increase in non-bank deposit growth [30][35]. - Deposit relocation accelerated in July as the equity market continued to rise. After the state-owned large banks initiated a new round of deposit interest rate cuts in May, deposit relocation was not obvious in June. However, in July, the combined deposits of residents and enterprises decreased by 2.57 trillion yuan, the highest in the past four years. Resident deposit growth decreased slightly, while non-bank deposit growth rebounded significantly to 15% [36]. - Deposit relocation may continue. Historically, deposit relocation has been significant during major stock market rallies, such as from 2005 - 2007, 2014 - 2015, 2016 - 2017, 2019 - 2021, and since September 2024. Even after the stock market reaches a peak and retraces, deposit relocation usually continues for some time. Since July, the stock market has risen significantly, and if it continues to rise, deposit relocation may persist [37]. 2.2 In the long term, non-bank institutions tend to adjust their asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment - Non-bank asset allocation adjustment is a typical feature of a low-interest-rate environment. In recent years, as broad-based interest rates have declined, the profitability of fixed-income assets such as bonds has gradually decreased. Driven by factors such as the introduction of policies to stabilize the capital market in September 2024, technological breakthroughs since 2025, and the expectation of "anti-involution" policies, the equity market has continued to break through, and non-bank institutional funds have shifted from pure fixed-income assets to equity and fixed-income plus assets [41]. - Similar trends have been observed in other countries. In the United States, during the two rounds of interest rate cuts from 2007 - 2016 and 2018 - 2021, the proportion of bond and money market mutual funds decreased from a high of 56% in 2008 to about 40% in 2021. In Europe, from 2012 - 2021, the proportion of bond and money market UCITS funds decreased from 45% in 2012 to about 36% at the end of 2021. In Japan, after entering a low-interest-rate era in the late 1990s, the scale of bond and money market funds declined rapidly, and their proportion decreased from a peak of 77% to about 7.0% in March 2024 [41][42][49]. - In China, the scale of bond and money market funds has grown rapidly in recent years, and their proportion among all public funds increased from about 55% to about 65% in 2024. However, since 2025, the proportion has decreased as the absolute level of interest rates has declined and the profitability of bond assets has weakened [49]. 2.3 In the short term, when will the relocation of non-bank funds slow down periodically? - The relocation of non-bank funds may slow down periodically as the equity market fluctuates and interest rates change. This can be observed from the following perspectives: - Stock-bond valuation and bond-credit valuation: As the stock market rises significantly, the relative advantage of stocks over bonds may decrease. As of the end of August, the risk premium of the WIND300 ex-financial index has decreased from more than two standard deviations above the mean to less than one standard deviation below the mean, and the risk premium of the dividend index has decreased to near two standard deviations below the mean. Insurance funds and other institutions may slow down the relocation of funds. Bonds still have a significant advantage over loans, and as the bond market rebounds from a low level, the cost of real economy financing continues to decline, making bonds attractive to banks [52]. - The spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the policy rate: Before 2024, the spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the 7-day reverse repurchase rate fluctuated around 70BP. In 2024, as broad-based interest rates declined, the spread was compressed to about 50BP. From December 2024 to January 2025, interest rates declined rapidly, further compressing the spread. Since 2025, the spread has oscillated between 10BP and 40BP. However, since late July, as the bond market has continued to rebound, the spread has gradually risen to about 45BP, returning to the "normal" range before 2025, indicating that the market has corrected the previously overdrawn expectations, and non-bank funds may slow down the selling of bonds [57]. - The scale of 30-year ETFs and the long-short ratio of TL positions: As the equity market rally slows down and interest rates rise, institutions are increasing their purchases of 30-year ETFs, and the long-short ratio of TL positions is rising. On the one hand, the growth of fixed-income plus products has increased the demand for 30-year ETFs. On the other hand, some institutions may buy 30-year ETFs and TL to hedge against equity market risks. When the scale of 30-year ETFs and the long-short ratio of TL positions continue to rise, it may indicate a slowdown in the relocation of non-bank funds [61].

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is experiencing significant growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 12.8% and the ChiNext Index up 22% in 2025, while the bond market is facing challenges, with a 30-year government bond ETF down over 2% year-to-date and a further decline of 4% since June [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds reflects a shift in market risk appetite, where funds flow into equities during bullish phases and retreat to bonds during bearish phases [1][2] - The primary determinants of bond market trends are economic fundamentals, including macroeconomic conditions, inflation, and monetary policy, rather than stock market performance [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data indicates a weakening trend, with July's new loans showing negative growth for the first time since 2005 and a decline in social financing year-on-year [2][3] - Despite these indicators suggesting support for the bond market, the bond market continues to decline due to strong stock performance and policy disruptions, indicating a temporary disconnection from economic data [2][3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - In a bullish stock market, the bond market may not present high value, but there are opportunities for tactical trading, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high [4][5] - Monitoring the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields is crucial, as bond prices and yields move inversely; rising yields lead to falling bond prices and vice versa [4][5] Group 4: Historical Context - Over the past decade, the long-term trend in China's bond market has been a decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield currently around 1.76% and the 30-year yield at 2.06% [5][6] - Historical data shows that current yields are at a low point, but there is potential for further declines, indicating a long-term downward trend in interest rates [6][7] Group 5: Tactical Approaches - For short-term trading, flexibility is key; if yields rise, it presents buying opportunities, while falling yields may prompt profit-taking [6][7] - For long-term investments, considerations include duration selection, risk-return trade-offs, and alignment with market conditions, emphasizing the importance of rational decision-making [7]

Group 1 - The bond market is under pressure due to high risk appetite, leading to a decline in long-term government bonds and significant losses for bond funds, particularly those heavily invested in long-term interest rate bonds [1] - Data from Wind indicates that nearly 100 bond funds have seen performance declines exceeding 1% since August, with over 70% of pure bond funds reporting losses during the same period [1] - Notable bond funds with significant net value declines include Fangzheng Fubang Hongyuan, Huatai Baoxin Zunyi Interest Rate Bond 6-Month Holding, and others, many of which are heavily invested in long-term interest rate bonds [1] Group 2 - Some bond fund holders are opting for redemptions in response to net value adjustment pressures, with specific funds announcing adjustments to ensure that the interests of fund holders are not adversely affected [2] - The A-share market has been performing strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing key levels, while the bond market continues to adjust, raising questions about when this adjustment will end [2] - Analysts from Penghua Fund express a neutral short-term outlook on the bond market, suggesting limited risks for rate increases or decreases, and indicating that the current monetary policy environment is relatively loose [2] Group 3 - Short-term expectations for the bond market suggest a range-bound fluctuation due to both bullish and bearish factors, with a focus on eliminating interest rate cut expectations [3] - BoShi Fund anticipates that there will be no significant easing of monetary policy in the short term, with bearish sentiment likely to dominate the market [3]

短期来看，债市仍将面临股市带来的分流效应。 A股做多情绪爆发，周一（8月18日）上证综指一举突破3700点，周二（19日）收盘微跌0.02%报3727.29点。 "近期债市的赎回压力不小。18日交易情绪就非常紧张，下午交易压力很大，资金面也紧张，很难想象周一的'虹吸'行情再持续几天可能造成的冲击。"某大 型券商资管债券交易员对第一财经表示。 债市遇袭、套利资金搬家 18日，30年期国债ETF跌超1%，30年期国债收益率一度突破2.1%。 19日，随着A股暂时盘整，债市亦稍事喘息。特别是央行19日早盘大幅净投放超4600亿，呵护流动性意图明显。央行公告称，8月19日以固定利率、数量招 标方式开展了5803亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%。当日有1146亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放4657亿元。 截至19日收盘，10年期国债活跃券收益率报1.7675%，微跌0.25BP；30年期国债活跃券收益率报2.0275%，微跌0.95BP。 8月以来，A股"虹吸"效应开始加剧。18日，不少债券交易员的压力达到顶点。当天，A股大涨的同时，10年期国债收益率上涨3个基点（BP）至1.775%，30 年期收益率一 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in trading volume, with the total trading volume surpassing 2 trillion yuan for four consecutive trading days, indicating a strong market sentiment and profitability for investors [1][2][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed above 3700 points for the first time, reaching 3728.03 points, marking a 10-year high, with a year-to-date increase of 11.23% [1][3] - New investor accounts in the A-share market have surged, with 1.456 million new accounts opened in 2023, a 36.88% increase compared to the same period in 2022, reflecting a growing interest in equity investments [3][4] Group 2 - The bond market has experienced a significant decline, with government bond futures dropping across the board, indicating a "stock-bond seesaw" effect as the stock market rises [7][8] - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions may lead to a prolonged "healthy bull" market, driven by increased investor participation and favorable policy signals [4][6] - The bond market's yield is expected to stabilize in the short term, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to remain between 1.65% and 1.75%, reflecting a cautious outlook on interest rate movements [8][9]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a significant increase in trading volume, reaching 2.76 trillion yuan on August 18, with margin financing balances exceeding 2 trillion yuan, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of both metrics surpassing 2 trillion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose above 3700 points, achieving its highest level in nearly 10 years, with a year-to-date increase of 11.23% [1] - In July, 1.9636 million new A-share accounts were opened, a 31.72% increase from June, contributing to a total of 14.5613 million new accounts opened in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.88% compared to 10.6379 million in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The bond market experienced a sharp decline on August 18, with all government bond futures closing lower; the 30-year main contract fell by 1.33% to 116.090 yuan, marking the largest single-day drop since March 17, 2025, and a new closing low since March 24, 2025 [1] - The 10-year main contract decreased by 0.29% to 108.015 yuan, while the 5-year and 2-year contracts fell by 0.21% to 105.455 yuan and 0.04% to 102.304 yuan, respectively [1] - The 30-year government bond ETF dropped over 1%, closing down 1.26%, marking three consecutive days of decline [1]

0:00 指数上涨，资金跑步进场，据上交所数据显示，今年7月A股新开户196.36万户，较6月的164.64万户环 比增加31.72万户，环比增幅近两成。截至7月31日，今年以来A股合计新开户数量为1456.13万户，与 2024年前7月1063.79万开户数量相比，同比增长36.88%。 "股债跷跷板"效应之下，8月18日，债券市场加速下跌。8月18日，国债期货收盘全线下跌，30年期主力 合约跌1.33%，收于116.090元，创2025年3月17日以来单日最大跌幅，同时创2025年3月24日以来收盘新 低；10年期主力合约跌0.29%，收于108.015元，5年期主力合约跌0.21%，收于105.455元，2年期主力合 约跌0.04%，收于102.304元。30年期国债ETF跌超1%，收盘跌1.26%，已经连续3个交易日下跌。 8月18日，A股市场成交额攀升至2.76万亿元，两融余额再度突破2万亿元，这是继8月13日后，A股连续 第四个交易日实现成交额与两融余额双破"2万亿"，上证综指站上3700点，创下近10年新高，年内累计 涨幅11.23%。 ...

Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market has shown significant performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3700 points, marking a nearly 10-year high and a year-to-date increase of 11.23% [1][7] - The trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.76 trillion yuan, with margin financing balances exceeding 2 trillion yuan, indicating strong investor participation [1][7] - In July, 196.36 thousand new A-share accounts were opened, a 19% month-on-month increase, contributing to a total of 1,456.13 million new accounts year-to-date, a 36.88% increase compared to the same period last year [1][8] Group 2: Bond Market Trends - On August 18, the bond market experienced a significant decline, with the 30-year government bond futures dropping by 1.33%, marking the largest decline since March 2025 [3][10] - The yields on long-term government bonds have risen, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching 1.77% [4][11] - The Ministry of Finance announced support for government bond market-making to enhance liquidity in the secondary market [5] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market sentiment is optimistic, driven by strong trading volumes and positive policy signals, with expectations for continued inflow of funds into the A-share market [8][9] - The bond market is expected to stabilize, with analysts predicting that the 10-year government bond yield will remain in the range of 1.65% to 1.75% in the short term [10][11] - The overall economic outlook for the second half of 2025 is expected to remain stable, with potential upward adjustments in economic expectations and continued support for the equity market [11]

| | | 过去一周调整净值的债券基金 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公告日期 | 证券代码 | 公告标题 | 发布日期 | | 2025/7/31 | 007941.OF | 关于恒生前海恒扬纯债债券型证券投资基金提高A、C类份额净值精度的公告 | 2025/7/31 9:04 | | 2025/7/31 | 006489.OF | 招商基金管理有限公司关于提高招商添裕纯使债券型证券投资基金D类份额净 值精度的公告 | 2025/7/31 9:07 | | 2025/7/30 | 014388.OF | 渤海汇金证券资产管理有限公司关于提高渤海汇金兴宸一年定期开放债券型 发起式证券投资基金份额净值精度的公告 | 2025/7/30 8:02 | | 2025/7/29 | 004238.OF | 永赢基金管理有限公司关于永赢瑞益债券型证券投资基金D类基金份额净值精 度调整的公告 | 2025/7/29 9:01 | | 2025/7/27 | 019400.OF | 关于提高国泰君安安睿纯债债券型证券投资基金c类份额净值精度的公告 | 2025/7/27 9:04 | | ...

近期，权益市场和商品市场双双走高，债市压力显著增加。7月21日，上证指数再创年内新高，随后几日股市持续保持强势。截至7月25日收盘，上证指数收 于3593.66点，周内涨幅达到1.67%。这也让许多机构资金的风格发生改变。 7月21日至25日，纯债型基金连续五个交易日呈现净赎回态势。其中，7月24日单日赎回近千亿规模。 7月24日，兴银基金发布公告称，旗下兴银中债优选投资级信用债指数C于7月23日发生大额赎回。同日发布公告提及上述情况的，还有圆信永丰兴利E、金 鹰中债0-3年政金债指数C、金鹰添福纯债C、泰信汇盈A/C等多只债基产品。 债基申赎指数数据 | 交易日期 | 1股票型基金 | 2混合型基金 | 3债券型基金 | 3.1纯债型基金 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/07/24 | 0.07 | 0.74 | -30.80 | -29.22 | | 2025/07/23 | 0.02 | 0.00 | -19.99 | -16.60 | | 2025/07/22 | 0.06 | 0.66 | 4.26 | -7.80 | | 2025/07/21 | ...