Market Performance and Data - Recent surge in international gold prices, with futures prices rising significantly within weeks, indicating a rare one-sided upward trend [1] - Increased trading volume in both futures and spot markets, reflecting a substantial influx of market capital [3] Global Economic Uncertainty - Heightened global economic uncertainties, including geopolitical conflicts and slowing economic growth, have driven investors to seek gold as a safe-haven asset [4] - Major economies showing signs of contraction, with declining manufacturing PMI and lowered growth forecasts from the IMF [4] Monetary Policy Easing Expectations - Global central banks signaling a shift towards looser monetary policies, with expectations of paused interest rate hikes and potential rate cuts [5] - Increased liquidity and risk of currency depreciation make gold more attractive as a non-currency asset [5] Inflation Expectations - Divergence in inflation expectations, with some economists predicting a return to low inflation while others foresee persistent inflation due to previous monetary easing [6] - Gold's role as an inflation hedge is emphasized, leading to increased investment in gold to mitigate inflation risks [6] Impact on Financial Markets - Gold price surge positively affecting related stocks, particularly in the gold mining and jewelry sectors, while also boosting prices of other precious metals [8] - Interaction between rising gold prices and bond market dynamics, with potential capital shifts from bonds to gold [8] Impact on the Gold Industry - Gold mining companies experiencing significant profit increases due to high gold prices, with some previously unprofitable mines becoming viable [9] - Increased exploration and development activities in the gold sector as companies seek to capitalize on favorable market conditions [9] Investor Implications - Opportunities for investors to engage in gold-related assets, such as futures and ETFs, to benefit from rising prices [10] - Need for investors to maintain a rational approach and consider their risk tolerance when investing in volatile gold markets [10] Future Price Outlook - Continued uncertainty in gold price trends, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and expectations of monetary easing [11] - Potential factors that could suppress gold prices include unexpected economic recovery and strengthening of the dollar [11]

Core Viewpoint - The securities sector has shown strong performance, with significant gains in various indices and stocks, driven by supportive monetary policies and improved market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 29, 2025, the securities index rose over 7% at one point, while the securities and insurance index increased by more than 6% [1]. - Key stocks such as Huatai Securities hit the daily limit, and several others like Guosheng Financial Holdings and GF Securities saw gains exceeding 9% [1]. - The current A-share environment is characterized by multiple positive signals, including a low interest rate environment and increased risk appetite among investors [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - The central bank's recent meeting emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy, encouraging financial institutions to increase credit supply [1]. - Policies such as securities, fund, and insurance company swap facilities and stock repurchase loans are expected to provide liquidity support to non-bank financial institutions, benefiting the brokerage sector [1]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The securities sector is highly correlated with stock market performance, with brokerage, proprietary trading, and investment banking businesses set to benefit from market recovery [2]. - Although the growth rate of insurance premiums has slowed, the recovery in equity markets is expected to enhance investment returns for insurance companies, indicating potential for increased allocation from public funds [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Southern Securities ETF (512900) has shown significant upward movement, reflecting a strong performance in the securities sector, driven by favorable monetary policy and market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Southern Securities ETF (512900) surged over 7% in the afternoon trading session on September 29, 2025, with a transaction volume of 118 million yuan [1]. - As of September 26, 2025, the latest share count for the Southern Securities ETF reached 6.302 billion, marking a three-month high [2]. Group 2: Market and Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China held its monetary policy committee meeting on September 23, 2025, emphasizing the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and stabilize the capital market [2]. - West Securities noted that the securities industry remains in an upward trend, characterized by relative undervaluation and high year-on-year performance growth, indicating potential for valuation recovery [2]. - Open Source Securities highlighted rising risk aversion ahead of the National Day holiday, but maintained a positive long-term outlook for the securities and financial sectors, suggesting a "hold through the holiday" strategy due to low valuation levels [2]. Group 3: Index Composition - The Southern Securities ETF closely tracks the CSI All Share Securities Company Index, which categorizes companies into various industry levels, providing a comprehensive analysis tool for investors [3]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include prominent firms such as Dongfang Wealth, CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities, among others [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market experienced a significant downturn in the second half of 2025, mainly due to the rise of the equity market and commodities, as well as institutional behavior adjustments. However, in the fourth quarter, the bond market is expected to recover, supported by the coordinated efforts of monetary and fiscal policies and the relatively friendly monetary environment [2][37][47]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Sharp Decline of Bond Futures in the Second Half of the Year - In 2025, the Treasury bond futures market was extremely volatile, with five distinct stages. From July onwards, all maturities of Treasury bond futures declined from their highs, and there was no obvious sign of stabilization in the short term. For example, the TL main contract dropped by more than 6% [3]. 3.2. Correction of Premature Pricing 3.2.1. Dominance of the Game between Institutions and the Central Bank - In the first half of the year, the market continued the bullish trend since November 2024. After the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, the market anticipated interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts in advance, leading to a rapid decline in bond yields. However, the Central Bank took measures to cool down the market, including strict supervision, tightening of the capital market, and policy implementation, which weakened the bullish sentiment [11][12]. 3.2.2. Asset Rotation and Increased Risk Appetite - **Commodity Market**: In July, the anti - involution policy promoted the rise of certain commodities such as lithium carbonate, polysilicon, coking coal, and coke. The policy was later adjusted, and the enthusiasm in the commodity market subsided [20][24]. - **Equity Market**: Driven by factors such as technological innovation narratives and policy reforms, the domestic stock market had a strong bullish trend from July to September. Major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and CSI 300 all had significant increases, attracting funds from the bond market [28]. - **Institutional Behavior**: The revision of the regulations on public - offering fund sales fees and the possible cancellation of tax exemptions for public - offering fund dividends affected institutional behavior. Although there was some short - term panic selling, the long - term impact on the market structure was limited [34]. 3.3. Expected Recovery of the Bond Market in the Fourth Quarter - **Insufficient Attractiveness of Bond Yields**: In the past two years, the decline in bond yields was supported by the fundamental situation and the asset shortage environment. However, this year, the emergence of the equity market and the commodity market's bullish trends has led to a diversion of funds from the bond market [37]. - **Fundamentals as the Anchor**: The main negative factor for the bond market is the diversion of funds to risk assets. Although the short - term impact of asset linkage on the bond market is magnified, the market deviation will eventually be corrected. The monetary policy is expected to remain relatively loose, which is beneficial to the bond market [40]. - **Synergistic Efforts of Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will cooperate more closely to improve the effectiveness of macro - policies. Considering the current economic situation, the fundamentals are still favorable for the bond market, and the bond market is expected to recover in the fourth quarter [46][47].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has officially initiated interest rate cuts, leading to increased market liquidity and a surge in gold prices, which have risen for four consecutive weeks and are hovering near historical highs, with a potential breakthrough of the 3700 mark [1] - The decision to cut rates is primarily driven by structural weaknesses in the job market, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August and non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 150,000 [1] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may implement three rate cuts this year, reinforcing strong support for gold prices, with a consensus that prices could reach 4000 USD by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - Current bullish momentum in gold suggests that any pullback may present a good entry opportunity, with a 91.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October [2] - A promotional campaign by the company offers double points for trading gold and silver, incentivizing traders to participate in the market during this bullish phase [2][4] - The points earned from trading can be redeemed for bonuses, enhancing the trading experience and encouraging more transactions [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international gold prices, surpassing $3,700 per ounce, is a response to global monetary policy easing, technological shifts, and the weakening of dollar credibility, indicating a long-term upward trend rather than a peak [1][9]. Historical Market Cycles - The first gold bull market lasted from August 1971 to January 1980, with prices rising from $35 to $850 per ounce, driven by U.S. fiscal deficits and stagflation, reflecting gold's role as a hedge against currency crises [2]. - The second bull market spanned from February 2001 to August 2011, with prices increasing from $251.9 to $1,920.3 per ounce, influenced by economic weakness post-dot-com bubble and the subprime mortgage crisis [2]. - The current bull market, recognized since 2022, is characterized by structural cracks in the U.S. dollar credit system, driven by political instability, fiscal challenges, and technological competition [2]. De-dollarization Trend - The global de-dollarization process is accelerating, with central banks, including China's, increasing gold reserves, reflecting skepticism towards dollar asset safety [3]. - A survey indicates that 95% of central banks plan to continue increasing gold holdings, with 43% betting on the rise of yuan and euro reserves, highlighting strategic adjustments due to dollar credit cracks [3]. - The weaponization of the dollar post-Russia-Ukraine conflict has catalyzed the de-dollarization movement, emphasizing gold's strategic value as a "ultimate payment method" [3]. Current Price Drivers - Global monetary policy easing is a primary driver of rising gold prices, with the U.S. Federal Reserve recently lowering interest rates, enhancing gold's investment appeal [4]. - The weakening U.S. dollar index, which fell from around 108 to approximately 97.62, has made gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, boosting demand [5]. - Political and economic uncertainties, including U.S. domestic political interference and emerging market financial turmoil, have increased demand for gold as a safe asset [5]. Future Outlook - The U.S. political divide and global economic governance changes are expected to reshape gold's strategic value, with central bank gold purchases potentially transitioning from diversification to strategic accumulation [6]. - In the next six months, gold prices are projected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern, with potential to exceed $3,800 per ounce if the Fed signals stronger easing [7]. - Long-term projections suggest gold prices could exceed $6,000 per ounce within 3 to 5 years, driven by structural changes in the global monetary system [8]. Price Scenarios - In a baseline scenario, gold prices may fluctuate between $3,500 and $4,500 per ounce over the next 12 months, with a midpoint around $3,750 per ounce [10]. - An optimistic scenario could see prices surpassing $4,000 to $4,500 per ounce due to geopolitical crises or significant Fed rate cuts, while a pessimistic scenario might see a drop to $3,400 to $3,600 per ounce if the U.S. economy stabilizes [10]. Investment Strategy - Investors should focus on the Fed's policy rhythm and geopolitical events affecting gold prices, while considering gold as a strategic asset in their portfolios to optimize risk-return structures [11].

Group 1 - OECD reports that global economic growth is more resilient than expected, supported by AI investments in the US economy [2] - The full impact of US tariffs has yet to be realized, with companies currently absorbing shocks by reducing profit margins and utilizing inventory [2] - The effective tariff rate on US goods imports rose to 19.5% by the end of August, the highest level since the Great Depression [2] Group 2 - OECD raises global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.9% to 3.2%, while maintaining a 2.9% forecast for 2026 [3] - The short-term boost from inventory accumulation is fading, and high tariffs are expected to hinder investment and trade growth [3] - Specific forecasts include a slowdown in US growth to 1.8% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, despite AI investment and fiscal support [3] Group 3 - Most major central banks are expected to lower interest rates or maintain accommodative policies in the coming year, provided inflation pressures ease [4] - The Federal Reserve may further cut rates if the labor market weakens, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October [4] - The Bank of Japan is expected to gradually exit its ultra-loose monetary policy, while other central banks like the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England are anticipated to lower rates [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, with further cuts anticipated in October and December [1][2] - The decision to lower rates is driven by rising unemployment, which increased to 4.3% in August, the highest in the current cycle, alongside a significant drop in non-farm payroll growth [2][3] - The Fed's focus has shifted from stable employment to addressing the risks of rising unemployment, indicating a more dovish monetary policy stance [2][4] Group 2 - The Fed's internal consensus on the need for easing is evident, with only one member dissenting, advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [4][6] - The economic outlook suggests a projected unemployment rate of 4.5% by year-end, with further declines expected in the following years, reinforcing the likelihood of continued monetary easing [4][6] - The capital markets reacted predictably to the rate cut, with the stock market showing limited movement as the news was already priced in, although ongoing rate cuts may support a stronger market foundation [7][13] Group 3 - The depreciation of the US dollar is expected to lead to a relative appreciation of the Chinese yuan, although this is not indicative of the yuan's strength compared to other currencies [10][11] - The anticipated interest rate cuts in China may lower mortgage rates to around 2.7%-2.8%, but the impact on the housing market is expected to be limited due to broader economic concerns [14][16] - The overall sentiment in the housing market remains pessimistic, with external capital unlikely to flow into the market under current conditions, indicating a disconnect between rate cuts and housing recovery [16][17]

Group 1: Gold Price Surge - Gold prices have reached a new historical high of $3720 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 1% and a cumulative rise of over 12% since August 20 [1][6] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by more than 42% [1][6] Group 2: Market Reaction - U.S. gold stocks collectively surged over 5% in early trading, with notable increases in companies such as Barrick Mining and Newmont [4] - In the A-share market, gold-related stocks also saw significant gains, with Shengda Resources hitting the daily limit and Zhongjin Gold rising over 9% [5] Group 3: Future Predictions - Morgan Stanley has raised its gold price forecast, expecting spot gold to reach $3800 per ounce by Q4 2025 and potentially exceed $4000 in Q1 2026 [7] - UBS has also increased its target price for gold, projecting it to reach $3800 by the end of 2025, up from a previous estimate of $3500 [7] - Goldman Sachs maintains a target of $3700 for gold by the end of 2025 and $4000 by mid-2026, highlighting the potential for prices to exceed $4500 under certain conditions [8] Group 4: Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has established a trend of gradually easing monetary policy, which is expected to support higher gold prices [6][9] - Analysts suggest that ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. economic policies are driving increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [8][10] Group 5: Institutional Demand - Central banks are continuing to purchase gold, with the demand being less sensitive to price fluctuations, which supports a bullish outlook for gold prices [10] - The trend of de-dollarization and geopolitical risks are prompting institutional investors to diversify their portfolios with gold, providing a solid support base for prices [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides market analysis and trading strategies for various sectors including macro finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the supply - demand situation, price trends, and influencing factors of each sector's commodities, and gives corresponding trading suggestions such as long, short, or neutral positions [13][16][23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - China and the US leaders had a phone call to discuss bilateral relations; the central bank adjusted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations; the State Council held a meeting on government procurement policies and reviewed a draft banking supervision law; Shanghai optimized property tax policies; multiple government departments issued industry - related policies; major express companies in Shanghai will raise prices; the Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate and started to reduce holdings; the UK had a high budget deficit; the US faced a potential government shutdown; and European Central Bank officials had different views on interest rates [9][10][11]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Consider buying on dips and adopting a range - bound trading strategy. A - share indices declined, and the market is expected to be range - bound with a potential increase in central bank easing probability [13]. Treasury Bond Futures - Consider steepening the short - end and ultra - long - end yield curves in the medium - to - long - term and buying bonds on dips, betting on further monetary policy easing [14]. Black Commodities Steel and Iron Ore - Steel is expected to trade in a range, and iron ore is recommended to be shorted on rallies. For arbitrage, go long on the iron ore 1 - 5 spread on dips and hold short wide - straddle options on steel. The market may experience a "peak season without peak" situation due to limited demand improvement and high inventory [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to rise in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" and the pre - National Day restocking rhythm [18]. Ferroalloys - Manganese silicon is expected to be shorted on rallies in the medium - to - long - term due to long - term oversupply. Silicon iron is also recommended to be shorted on rallies in the medium - term considering its current oversupply and potential cost changes [19][20]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash can be shorted on rallies, and glass is recommended to be observed for now. The supply of soda ash is increasing, and there is potential delivery pressure, while the glass market is affected by inventory and demand [21]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to remain at a relatively high level before the festival and can be bought on dips, while being cautious after the festival. Alumina is recommended to be shorted on rallies due to oversupply [23]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to decline as the supply increases and demand support is weak [24]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is in a state of strong reality and weak expectation, with prices expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [26]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon can be bought on dips in the far - month contracts. The key to supply - demand lies in the resumption progress of Xinjiang's leading manufacturers, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the dry season [27]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is mainly driven by policy progress, with prices expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term. Caution is needed in operation [28]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Cotton is recommended to be shorted on rallies due to increasing supply pressure and weak demand [30]. Sugar - Sugar prices are expected to face pressure both internationally and domestically. It is recommended to take a short position [32]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to weaken after the Mid - Autumn Festival. It is recommended to short on rallies, especially in the near - month contracts [33]. Apples - It is recommended to observe the apple market for now due to uncertainties such as weather and new - season opening prices [34]. Corn - Keep an eye on the new - grain listing rhythm and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [34]. Red Dates - Red dates are recommended to be shorted on rallies due to stable prices and weak consumption [36]. Pigs - The pig market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with prices expected to fluctuate at a low level. Short on rallies in the near - month contracts [37]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil is expected to be in a situation of oversupply, with prices likely to decline. The peak - season demand logic is ending, and the market may return to a weak - fundamental state [39]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices will follow the trend of crude oil, which is affected by geopolitical risks and expected future oversupply [40]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to trade weakly due to high supply pressure. Consider taking a short position [41]. Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and caution is needed in holding positions [42]. Methanol - Methanol is recommended to be traded with a weak - range - bound strategy due to high port inventory pressure [43]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda futures are expected to trade in a wide range. The support of spot prices for futures needs to be observed [44]. Asphalt - Asphalt will follow the trend of crude oil. It is in the seasonal demand peak, and the inventory is decreasing [45]. Polyester Industry Chain - Polyester products are expected to be weak in the short - term, but the downward space may narrow after continuous processing - fee compression [46]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG is expected to have limited upside potential in the long - term due to abundant supply. A short - term long - term bearish view is maintained [47]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to take a long position or sell put options with caution based on the production cost line in the short - term [48]. Pulp - Observe the port inventory reduction and spot trading situation in the short - term [49]. Logs - Observe the implementation of price - holding measures and downstream orders in the peak season. Consider taking a long position on dips with caution [50]. Urea - Urea prices are expected to be weak and range - bound due to weak domestic demand and increasing production [50]. Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is expected to be range - bound with limited upside and downside. Avoid chasing short positions during sharp declines [51].