证券时报记者：持仓数据显示，你的换手率较低且风格稳定。你对自己的风格定位是什么？ 王鹏：我很早就放弃了择时，历史证明，预判市场风格极其困难，优秀的基金经理难以靠风格轮动胜 出。基于此，我定位为均衡持仓风格，若组合偏向某一风格，会进行调整。 在公募基金行业，拥有十年以上管理经验的基金经理占比仅一成，主动权益领域的老将更是稀缺。国投 瑞银基金基金经理王鹏便是这样一位长期主义的坚定践行者，历史多阶段跑赢市场与同业。近日，王鹏 接受了证券时报记者采访，围绕"长期主义"深入阐述了他的投资哲学。 王鹏强调坚守投资理念至关重要，主张通过持续修炼"术"与"道"，与优秀企业共成长。他将坚守理念比 作卖杏——有人嗜甜，有人好酸，试图迎合所有人只会失去所有顾客。他坚持深耕于自身投资框架，以 历史长期业绩验证了"以不变应万变"的有效性。 坚守投资框架 证券时报记者：你已连续管理产品国投瑞银新丝路混合（LOF）超十年，且近三年（2.15%）、五年 （27.21%）、十年（55.2%）均取得显著超额收益。在A股高波动的环境下，你是如何实现优良的长期 业绩的？关键来源是什么？ 王鹏：我的投资理念始终围绕"独立思考、概率思维、逆向勇气、前瞻 ...

Core Viewpoint - Value investing is a timeless strategy that, when applied consistently, can lead to long-term market outperformance. The framework of value investing is akin to a "axiom" that adapts to the characteristics of great companies in different eras [1]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The essence of stock investment lies in "achieving ownership value appreciation through intrinsic growth" [1]. - Cash flow is increasingly recognized as a critical component of investment returns, a concept emphasized by the fund manager years ago [1]. - Value investing focuses on the company's inherent value rather than market sentiment or style factors, making it a robust approach to outperforming indices [13]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The Penghua Strategy Select Fund, managed by Yuan Hang, achieved a net value growth rate of 103.57% from August 13, 2015, to June 3, 2025, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which returned 18.42% during the same period [2]. - Over nine complete years from 2016 to 2024, the fund outperformed the Wind Active Equity Fund Index in seven of those years, demonstrating a high relative return success rate [3]. - In the structural bull markets of 2019 and 2020, the fund consistently outperformed the CSI 300 Index by at least 25% each year [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Yuan Hang's investment strategy is characterized by a focus on high-quality cash flow generation and the purchase of undervalued stocks, which are expected to recover in valuation once external challenges are resolved [15][16]. - The investment approach emphasizes a broad selection range, covering stable growth, dividend value, quality growth, and cyclical growth companies [18]. - Key selection criteria include the company's business model, competitive advantage, management quality, and sufficient margin of safety [19][20][21]. Group 4: Market Insights - Yuan Hang identifies two distinct market phenomena: trend phenomena, which align with long-term evolution, and cyclical phenomena, which diverge from it [27]. - He highlights three investment opportunities in the current environment: financial sectors benefiting from monetary easing, consumer and industrial sectors undergoing upgrades, and structural growth opportunities in TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [28]. Group 5: Fund Management Approach - The Penghua Co-Winning Future Mixed Fund features a performance benchmark composed of 70% CSI 300 Index, 10% Hang Seng Index, and 20% Zhongzheng Composite Bond Index, reflecting a comprehensive view of China's economic structure [33]. - Yuan Hang's investment framework aligns closely with fundamental value investing principles, focusing on high-quality growth and valuation recovery, which has been historically validated [33][37].

Group 1 - The AH share premium index has dropped to a new low of 128.05 points, the lowest since July 2020, indicating a potential for continued reduction in valuation premiums for dual-listed companies [1] - The decline in the AH share premium index reflects a market re-evaluation of value discrepancies between A-shares and H-shares, driven by improved capital market connectivity [1][2] - The realization of same-price shares for quality AH stocks is a result of enhanced market efficiency, with the Stock Connect mechanism facilitating increased daily trading volumes and greater pricing power for southbound funds [1][2] Group 2 - Institutional breakthroughs in the Hong Kong market, such as simplified cross-border merger approvals and a variety of financing tools, have lowered financing costs and improved efficiency for A+H companies [2] - Some quality listed companies, like Ping An Insurance and China Merchants Bank, have already achieved same-price shares, reflecting a natural trading logic for multi-listed companies [2] - The future realization of same-price shares will have profound implications for both A-shares and H-shares, aligning valuations closer to international standards and enhancing corporate governance and disclosure quality [2][3] Group 3 - The complete alignment of quality AH stock prices requires a more mature investor base and a stronger belief in value investing, which are still developing [3] - The ongoing decline of the AH share premium index is a result of market rationality and institutional progress, presenting investment opportunities as the market moves towards same-price shares [3] - Achieving same-price shares will further solidify China's capital market as a key hub for global asset allocation [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the resilience of value investors in the face of market fluctuations, focusing on long-term potential rather than short-term noise [1] - Recent price declines in the liquor market are attributed to speculative behavior rather than genuine demand shifts, with expectations of recovery as the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches [2] - The stability of prices for older vintages of Moutai reflects their strong demand for consumption and collection, indicating a shift towards rational pricing in the market [4] Group 2 - The trend of consumers increasingly using Moutai in non-business settings highlights a shift in consumption patterns, with a focus on personal enjoyment and quality [6] - The overall liquor market is witnessing a concentration of demand towards premium brands, with Moutai benefiting from its established reputation and quality during industry adjustments [7] - The cultural products associated with Moutai are experiencing high demand, indicating a growing trend of consumers seeking personal fulfillment through collection and enjoyment [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting investment outlooks for two leading companies in the consumer sector: Moutai and Pop Mart, highlighting the ongoing debate among investors regarding which company presents a better investment opportunity [1]. Group 1: Moutai - Moutai's stock has been under pressure due to long-term impacts from government policies affecting the liquor industry, leading some investors to reconsider their positions [7]. - Despite the current challenges, some investors believe that Moutai remains a safer investment compared to other options, citing its historical resilience and potential for future growth [7][10]. - The stock's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is currently over 20, which some investors find concerning, suggesting that a drop below 10 PE could trigger renewed interest [7][9]. Group 2: Pop Mart - Pop Mart has seen significant stock price increases, with its market capitalization surpassing 300 billion HKD, reflecting its success in the consumer upgrade era and cultural value creation [12][14]. - The company faces challenges such as dependency on single IPs and balancing globalization with localization, but its innovative approach has positioned it well in the market [15]. - Pop Mart's brand strength and ability to leverage new channels and products are seen as key factors for its continued success in the competitive landscape [15]. Group 3: Other Perspectives - Some investors express skepticism about highly debated stocks, suggesting that widely researched stocks tend to have more rational pricing, reducing speculative opportunities [17][18]. - The article also notes that innovative marketing strategies, such as collaborations with popular brands, can help traditional sectors like liquor attract younger consumers [20].

是一场十分有趣的对话，很有高手过招的默契。 点击阅读： 2万字｜2008年芒格在加州理工与物理学家的罕见对谈，全程都是智慧四溅 其他值得看 1、 说什么大实话！"盈利王"城堡投资创始人肯·格里芬最新对话谈关税、美债及"大而美法案"…… 本周 推荐阅读 父亲节快乐的日子。本周付费专栏有上新。 2008年春天，84岁的查理·芒格回到他的母校加州理工做了一场100分钟的交流。这场对话并不广为人 知。 跟他同台对话的是当时72岁的物理学家汤姆·（Tom Tombrello），芒格自己亲自挑选的对话搭子。跟芒 格一样，汤布雷洛也是个多元学科的"杂家"，听《拉美莫尔的露琪亚》歌剧能听出一个特别怪的音色， 那是来自于本杰明·富兰克林发明的 "玻璃琴"。 2、 为什么泡泡玛特没遇上真正的对手？王宁2023年一场精彩的闭门分享 3、 近一年市值涨6倍！泡泡玛特如何在"成见"路上越走越宽…… 4、 22年前25万美金拍下"巴菲特午餐"，绿光资本艾因霍恩：市场失灵了，现在的价值投资者有点像恐 龙…… 看完记得 点击视频右下角头像 ， 关注【聪明投资者视频号】 ，带你看投资智慧的浓缩精华。 转载开白， 请联系小编微信【fanxiao ...

本周 推荐阅读 父亲节快乐的日子。本周付费专栏有上新。 2008年春天，84岁的查理·芒格回到他的母校加州理工做了一场100分钟的交流。这场对话并不广为人 知。 跟他同台对话的是当时72岁的物理学家汤姆·（Tom Tombrello），芒格自己亲自挑选的对话搭子。跟芒 格一样，汤布雷洛也是个多元学科的"杂家"，听《拉美莫尔的露琪亚》歌剧能听出一个特别怪的音色， 那是来自于本杰明·富兰克林发明的 "玻璃琴"。 4、 22年前25万美金拍下"巴菲特午餐"，绿光资本艾因霍恩：市场失灵了，现在的价值投资者有点像恐 龙…… 看完记得 点击视频右下角头像 ， 关注【聪明投资者视频号】 ，带你看投资智慧的浓缩精华。 转载开白， 请联系小编微信【fanxiaocom】，添加备注 "转载+新媒体名+姓名" ，按顺序邀请加入媒体转载群 商务合作， 请添加聪明牛牛【微信congmingtzz1/ 手机13262200706 】，添加备注 "合作+机构名+姓名 " 具体 商议 1、 说什么大实话！"盈利王"城堡投资创始人肯·格里芬最新对话谈关税、美债及"大而美法案"…… 2、 为什么泡泡玛特没遇上真正的对手？王宁2023年一场精彩的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that many investors have not achieved returns that match GDP growth, primarily due to a shift in investment strategies during bull markets, leading to significant losses in bear markets [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - During bull markets, investors often shift their portfolios from high-quality, stable growth stocks to lower-quality, high-growth stocks, resulting in a concentration of "junk stocks" by the end of the bull market [2][4]. - The experience from bear markets shows that while both quality and junk stocks decline, quality stocks tend to recover, whereas junk stocks often do not rebound, leading to substantial losses for those who invested in them [3][6]. Group 2: Quality vs. Junk Stocks - The article uses the analogy of "tennis balls" (quality companies) and "eggs" (junk stocks) to illustrate that quality stocks can bounce back after a fall, while junk stocks shatter and lose value permanently [5][11]. - Historical data indicates that 80% of quality stocks listed for over ten years have more than doubled in price over the past decade, while a significant portion of junk stocks has failed to recover their previous highs [12][13]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Success - Successful long-term investment is characterized by focusing on high-quality companies, as evidenced by the performance of stocks like 恒瑞医药, 格力电器, and 三一重工, which have shown remarkable growth [13][15]. - The article highlights that the key to investment success is not making complex decisions but rather avoiding poor choices, reinforcing the importance of maintaining a portfolio of quality stocks [8][10].

投资小红书-第241期 一轮牛熊之后，大部分投资者并没有赚到与GDP增长相匹配的收益，这些投资账户的钱是怎么失去的？ 统计数据显示，在上市超过10年时间的申万绩优成份股中，80%的个股在过去十年涨幅超越一倍，仍有 8%左右的个股至今未超越十年前的股价；在红利指数成份股中，也有86%的个股超越5178点时的股价 高度。 《复利》作者高塔姆·拜德的观点非常有代表性：随着牛市的成熟，许多投资者倾向于将投资组合从高质 量、增长稳定、股本回报率高的股票，转移到价格增长快、管理质量差、回报率较低的股票，在繁荣期 结束时，大多数投资者的投资组合中只剩下垃圾股。 在随后的熊市中，优质股和垃圾股都会受重挫，但前者会反弹复苏，后者会一蹶不振。最好的经验来自 熊市，这也是价值股投资者为何怀抱绩优股能够战胜熊市，最终收益会随着时间而逐步增长的原因，但 垃圾股的追随者往往会失去牛市赚来的财富，甚至还会亏掉自己的本金。投资者要确保自己的投资组合 中是网球（优质公司），而不是鸡蛋（劣质的垃圾股），鸡蛋落地后会四处飞溅，但网球落地后依然能 够弹起。 "鸡蛋"落地后会四处飞溅 在每一轮熊市中，投资者都是小心谨慎，持有的股票也以稳健个股为主，但 ...

我们质疑他人的观点，也要考虑时间这个背景因素，比如2015年看好恒大和融创，并没有问题， 在2020年三道红线之前这些公司也是高分红高增速，给投资者带来了很好的回报，也是价值投资 的典范。 再比如在2022年之前，我看新能源供应链的公司，比如多次提到卖铲子的晶盛机电和先导智能等 公司盈利不错，但是在供需关系发生转变之后，这些企业的基本面就完全变了。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：菜头日记 来源：雪球 上市公司的基本面是动态变化的，我们做投资，需要持续跟踪这个变化。 任何人或者机构表达看好某家公司，都需要把时间这个定语加进去。 但是中国经济还在高速增长，向上的空间是无限大的。 从赔率上来讲，2700点没有任何理由不满仓啊。 从结果上看，完全印证了判断，年末，满载而归。 因此，所谓的好公司，也是有时间限制的。 到了2023年的时候，菜头就多次公开表示对于所有新能源产业链上的供应链公司都应该保持谨 慎，并且也在专栏里面剔除了所有相关的公司。 尤其是专栏里面，大家现在回头去看的话，2020~2022年我提醒最多的就是白酒和医药板块估值 泡沫的风险，2022 ...