1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International gold prices are strongly rising, while the A - share market is in a state of volatile consolidation with shrinking trading volume. The probability of a Fed rate cut in December is increasing, and the market is pricing in a 60% chance of a rate cut. The price of gold has reached 4200, and the oil price has dropped by more than 4%. The A - share market may still reach new highs in the short term, but there are risks of subsequent adjustments. In the medium - to - long - term, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market is in a volatile rebound [2][3]. - Precious metals are rising significantly due to increased expectations of a rate cut. However, caution is needed as the prices are approaching historical highs. Copper prices are oscillating strongly, and the market is speculating that the Fed may accelerate its easing path after a possible leadership change. Aluminum prices are rising with capital support, while alumina continues to be weak. Cast aluminum is strong, zinc is oscillating, lead is following the upward trend of the outer market but with limited upside, tin is strongly oscillating, and industrial silicon is oscillating with marginal improvements in supply and demand. Lithium carbonate prices are oscillating widely, nickel is oscillating at a low level, and soda ash and glass are oscillating at a low level [4][6][8][11]. - Steel prices are oscillating and adjusting, iron ore prices are under pressure, and coking coal and coke prices are oscillating and adjusting. For agricultural products, soybean and rapeseed meal are oscillating and adjusting, and palm oil is oscillating [24][25][26][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views 3.1.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump plans to sign a continuous appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. The Bureau of Labor Statistics may release the September non - farm payroll data on Friday, and the October data may be permanently missing. Trump proposes a $2000 tax refund for families with an annual income of less than $100,000. The market's pricing of a December rate cut has risen to 60%. The U.S. bond yield is falling, the dollar index is oscillating, the gold price has soared to 4200, and the oil price has dropped by more than 4% [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market is in a wide - range oscillation, with more than 3500 stocks closing down and the trading volume dropping to 1.96 trillion. The Shanghai 50 and dividend - style stocks are outperforming the technology stocks. The insurance and energy equipment sectors are leading the gains. The market lacks macro and event catalysts in the short term, and there may still be new highs, but risks of subsequent adjustments should be watched out for. In the medium - to - long - term, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market is in a volatile rebound, and it is expected to remain in a relatively strong oscillating pattern in the short term [3]. 3.1.2 Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures rose 2.07% to $4201.4 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.90% to $53.23 per ounce, approaching the historical high again. The end of the U.S. government shutdown and the expected release of economic data are boosting the market's expectations of a Fed rate cut in December. There are concerns about a shortage of silver supply, but caution is needed as the prices are approaching historical highs [4][5]. 3.1.3 Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the London copper has retreated slightly after reaching $11000. The spot market trading is dull, and downstream buyers are mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The market is speculating that the Fed may accelerate its easing path after a possible leadership change. China's cumulative imports of copper ore and concentrates from January to October increased by 7.5% year - on - year. Copper prices are expected to remain high and oscillate in the short term [6][7]. 3.1.4 Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 21880 yuan/ton, up 0.88%. The LME aluminum closed at $2886 per ton, up 0.23%. The macro - level expectation of a Fed rate cut is beneficial to the market sentiment. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is stable, and the supply of aluminum ingots may increase. Although it is the off - season for consumption, the consumption in the automotive and power sectors remains resilient. The inflow of funds is driving the aluminum price to continue rising [8][9][10]. 3.1.5 Alumina - The alumina futures main contract closed at 2821 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The supply of alumina is abundant, the consumption is mainly for rigid demand, and the inventory is increasing. The market is still bearish, and the price continues to be weak. Attention should be paid to cost support and winter heating policies in the north [11]. 3.1.6 Cast Aluminum - The cast aluminum alloy futures main contract closed at 21245 yuan/ton, up 0.83%. Driven by the new high of Shanghai aluminum, the cast aluminum futures are rising rapidly. The raw material scrap aluminum is in short supply, and the cost support is strong. The market is dominated by bullish sentiment, and the price is strong [12]. 3.1.7 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract is oscillating narrowly during the day and rising after a lower opening at night. The spot market trading is cold, and downstream buyers are cautious in purchasing due to high prices. The overall market sentiment may improve with the possible end of the U.S. government shutdown. The expected increase in zinc ingot exports and the possible reduction in smelter production are providing support to the price, but weak consumption and high inventory are limiting the upside. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. 3.1.8 Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract is rising after an intraday high - level pullback and oscillating at a high level at night. The LME lead has risen for five consecutive days, and the Shanghai lead is following the upward trend with continuous capital inflows. However, the fundamental support is weakening, and the supply - demand mismatch is being alleviated. The price is expected to remain strong in the short term, but the upside is limited [14][15]. 3.1.9 Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract is oscillating horizontally during the day and rising after a higher opening at night. The end of the U.S. government shutdown is improving market risk appetite, and the weakening dollar is beneficial to the rise of London tin, which in turn drives up the Shanghai tin price. The supply is strongly supported, and the global inventory is at a low level. The strong performance of the U.S. semiconductor sector is boosting demand expectations. Tin prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [16]. 3.1.10 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon is oscillating. The inventory of warehouse receipts is falling, mainly due to the reduction in production in the southwest region during the dry season. The supply is marginally shrinking, and the demand is showing marginal improvements. The price is expected to remain strong and oscillate in the short term [17][18]. 3.1.11 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are oscillating widely, and the spot price is rising. The inventory is being depleted rapidly, and the supply growth is slowing down. However, there are strong expectations of an increase in imports, and the resilience of the power terminal is in question. The price is expected to oscillate widely due to the intense game between bulls and bears [19][20]. 3.1.12 Nickel - Nickel prices are oscillating weakly. The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in early December, which may put pressure on the U.S. dollar index. The rainy season in the Philippines is affecting the shipment of nickel ore, providing cost support. The real - estate market is weak, and steel mills' production of stainless steel is flat. Although the fundamental situation is weak, the nickel price is at the bottom of the range, and low - buying opportunities can be considered [21]. 3.1.13 Soda Ash and Glass - The soda ash and glass main contracts are oscillating weakly. Some soda ash production facilities are planning to reduce production or undergo maintenance. The glass market has high inventory and weak demand, and the price may continue to decline, but attention should be paid to the risk of high positions [22][23]. 3.1.14 Steel - Steel futures are oscillating weakly. The spot market demand is weak due to the cold weather in the north. The production and apparent demand of steel are expected to remain weak. Steel prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [24]. 3.1.15 Iron Ore - Iron ore futures are oscillating. The supply pressure is increasing as the port inventory is rising, and the demand is weakening as the downstream is entering the off - season. The first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project has little short - term impact on supply but may change the global supply pattern in the long term. Iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure [25]. 3.1.16 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke futures are oscillating. Coke enterprises are proposing a fourth - round price increase, but steel mills have not responded. The supply tension is easing, and the demand expectation is weakening. The prices are expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [26]. 3.1.17 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal 01 contract rose 0.03%, and the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 0.52%. The production of soybeans in South America is progressing steadily, and the production of Australian rapeseed is expected to remain at 630,000 tons. The market is paying attention to the purchase progress of U.S. soybeans and the USDA report after the government shutdown. The far - month basis trading of soybean meal has increased, and the prices are expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [27][28][29]. 3.1.18 Palm Oil - The palm oil 01 contract fell 0.09%. The OPEC report indicates a possible oversupply in the oil market, and the international oil price has dropped significantly. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil are expected to decline in November, and the inventory may continue to increase. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [30][31]. 3.2 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units of various metal futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, and silver, in both the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the London Metal Exchange [32]. 3.3 Industrial Data Perspective - The report presents detailed industrial data for copper and nickel, including the prices of main contracts, warehouse receipts, inventory, spot premiums and discounts, and price ratios between different markets and varieties [33][35][36].

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market has regained investor attention with prices surging nearly 2% to break the $4160 per ounce level, reaching a high of $4211, the highest since October 21 [1] - The recent price increase is attributed to multiple factors, including economic uncertainty and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4] - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield dropping to 4.059%, has reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [5] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Government Actions - The U.S. government shutdown, lasting 43 days, has created a significant data void, impacting economic growth and investor sentiment [3] - The House of Representatives has moved forward with a funding bill to end the government shutdown, which is expected to restore the release of key economic data [3] - The ADP weekly employment report indicated a significant reduction in private sector jobs, reinforcing expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Opportunities - The combination of low interest rates and economic uncertainty has enhanced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with silver also experiencing a notable price increase [5] - The narrowing gold-silver ratio suggests a positive trend in the precious metals market, indicating increased capital inflow [5] - The upcoming release of pent-up economic data is likely to confirm the slowdown in the U.S. economy, further supporting the case for gold investment [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in gold prices is attributed to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by slowing GDP growth and weak employment data, alongside a global trend of central banks increasing gold reserves, indicating a rising demand for diversified reserves in a declining dollar credit cycle [1]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On November 12, spot gold rose by 1.69% to $4,196.54 per ounce, with a significant increase to a daily high of $4,211.79 [1] - COMEX gold futures increased by 2.15%, reaching $4,204.90 per ounce [1] - Spot silver saw a rise of 4.26%, priced at $53.4078 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose by 5.19% to $53.380 per ounce [1] Group 2: Market Analysis and Recommendations - Minsheng Securities suggests that despite slight improvements in the U.S. PMI and declining inflation pressures, the overall economic indicators support the expectation of rate cuts, which is favorable for gold prices in the long term [1] - The firm maintains a positive outlook on precious metals and recommends focusing on companies such as Western Gold, Shandong Gold, and China National Gold International [1] Group 3: ETF Performance - As of November 12, the gold stock ETF fund has seen a net value increase of 68.27% over the past year, ranking 22 out of 3,157 in the index stock fund category [4] - The fund has recorded a maximum monthly return of 20.05% since inception, with a historical one-year profit probability of 100% [4] - The fund's management fee is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10% [5] Group 4: Top Holdings and Market Activity - The top ten weighted stocks in the gold industry index account for 67.97% of the index, with Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold being the top three [5] - The gold stock ETF fund experienced a trading volume of 491.32 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 4.61% [3]

11月13日，现货黄金冲高回落，现报4185美元/盎司，盘中最高一度突破至4209美元/盎司，为10月21日 以来首次。自11月6日起，现货黄金一路冲高，在迅速冲破3970美元、4000美元、4010美元等关口后， 于11月12日凌晨向上触及4200美元/盎司，年内累计涨幅近60%。 相关分析指出， 美国政府停摆即将结束，疲软的就业市场及政府长期停摆带来的经济增长担忧，使得 市场加大了12月美联储降息的押注，叠加近日区域政治风险加剧，助推黄金价格走高。 最新消息，美联储博斯蒂克将退休。美国证券经纪人Peter Schiff表示，这样特朗普就可以提名另一位忠 诚的人来他的班。市场预期美联储将由更多鸽派人士主导，推动美元走弱、黄金应声大涨逾40美元。 场内ETF方面，截至2025年11月13日 10:07，上海金ETF(518600)上涨1.39%。截至11月12日，上海金 ETF近1年净值上涨52.77%。从收益能力看，截至2025年11月12日，上海金ETF自成立以来，最高单月 回报为11.46%，最长连涨月数为6个月，最长连涨涨幅为8.23%。 资金流入方面，上海金ETF最新资金净流入1129.97万元。拉 ...

| 2025-11-11 2025-11-05 交易日期(日) 2025-11-12 较昨日变化 近两周走势 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货近月合约 收盘价 118300.00 119050.00 119720.00 -750.00 1 | | | | | | | | | 1 期货连一合约 收盘价 118710.00 119380.00 120030.00 -670.00 | | | | | | | | | 1 期货连二合约 收盘价 118890.00 119530.00 120230.00 -640.00 | | | | | | | | | m | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 119070.00 119740.00 120410.00 -670.00 期货连三合约 | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 118710.00 119380.00 120030.00 -670.00 1 | | | | | | | | | 28.336.00 3 上海期银 成交量(手) 98248.00 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in gold prices is primarily driven by expectations surrounding the U.S. government funding bill and economic data indicating a slowdown in the U.S. economy, which enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][3]. Fundamental Analysis - Key drivers for gold's rise include the anticipated end of the U.S. government shutdown, with the House of Representatives moving towards a final vote on a funding bill, and President Trump indicating he will sign it. This has led to market expectations that upcoming economic data will confirm economic weakness in the U.S., further increasing gold's attractiveness [2]. - Economic indicators show weakness, with the ADP weekly employment report indicating a reduction of an average of 11,250 jobs per week in the private sector, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a 65% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [2]. - The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has fallen to 4.059%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, coupled with economic uncertainty, leading to increased investment in precious metals [3]. - Future focus areas include the final voting results and signing progress of the U.S. government funding bill, the release of delayed economic data, particularly employment and inflation reports, and signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts [3][4][5]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, the gold market has shown a strong upward trend, achieving four consecutive days of gains, indicating increasing bullish sentiment [6]. - Technical indicators reveal a strong short-term trend, with the 5-day and 10-day moving averages forming a golden cross, suggesting the stability and continuation of the upward trend. The 5-day moving average is currently acting as a strong support level [6]. - On the four-hour chart, the current market is in the C-wave of a corrective structure, with expectations of a five-wave push within this C-wave. Monitoring the momentum and completion of this wave structure is crucial for future positioning [8]. - Key resistance levels to watch include 4211/4212, with potential further resistance at 4238 and 4275/4276. Support levels to monitor are 4168, 4155-4140, and 4120 [9].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metal prices surged significantly on November 12, with silver rising over 4% and nearing historical highs, driven by easing concerns over U.S. dollar liquidity, declining U.S. Treasury yields, and speculation regarding Federal Reserve personnel changes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The most actively traded December 2025 gold futures price increased by $68.2, closing at $4,201.4 per ounce, marking a 1.65% rise [1]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to its lowest level since November 5, further supporting the upward trend in precious metals on November 12 [1]. - The announcement by Atlanta Fed President Bostic regarding his retirement in February 2026 heightened market speculation about a dovish shift in Federal Reserve policy [1]. Group 2: Demand and Future Outlook - Despite a more than 4% drop in international oil prices due to OPEC's changing stance, the upward momentum in precious metals remained unaffected [2]. - Analysts believe that as the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy is expected to continue, the physical demand for precious metals remains stable, indicating strong fundamentals for gold and silver [2]. - Solomon Global market analysts suggest that unless significant changes occur, both gold and silver are likely to trend higher in the coming weeks [2].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices surged to a new high of $4211.65 per ounce, driven by a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [1][3] - The recent rise in gold and silver prices attracted technical analysis speculators, indicating a bullish sentiment in the short term [1][3] - The overall market remains bullish for gold, with limited downside potential, as geopolitical uncertainties and central bank gold purchases provide structural support [1][3] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - U.S. crude oil prices fell over 4% to around $58.30 per barrel, influenced by OPEC's report predicting a balance between global oil supply and demand by 2026 [4][5] - The market is reacting to U.S. sanctions on Russian energy, which have affected import risks and led to cautious purchasing behavior among Indian refiners [4][5] - Short-term oil price movements are expected to depend on the intensity of sanctions and the response from buyers, with potential for a rebound if Russian exports remain constrained [4][5]

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold experienced significant selling pressure in mid to late October, with COMEX gold futures for December dropping below $4000 per ounce, reaching a low of $3901.3 per ounce [1] - In early November, the potential end of the U.S. government shutdown and easing dollar liquidity concerns contributed to a stabilization in gold investment demand, leading to a rebound in gold prices [1] - The long-term outlook for gold remains supported by global central bank purchases and increased investment demand, despite short-term pressures from profit-taking and weak physical demand [6][7] Group 2: U.S. Dollar Liquidity - The Federal Reserve's announcement to halt balance sheet reduction in December is expected to alleviate the low reserve levels in the U.S. banking system, which fell below the "ample liquidity" threshold of $3.1 trillion [2] - The U.S. government is likely to end its shutdown, reducing the fiscal siphoning effect on liquidity, as a temporary funding bill was passed by the Senate [2][3] - Indicators of dollar liquidity showed significant improvement in November, with the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) dropping from 4.22% to 3.93% [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Fed Rate Expectations - Economic indicators suggest a slowdown in U.S. growth, with a notable increase in layoffs and a decrease in GDP growth rate predictions [4] - October's inflation data was moderate, easing some concerns among Federal Reserve officials, which supports expectations for a potential rate cut in December [4][5] - The Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs may further complicate the U.S. debt situation, potentially necessitating a Fed rate cut [4] Group 4: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central bank gold purchases have rebounded, with a reported 220 tons bought in Q3 2025, a 28% increase from the previous quarter [6] - China's central bank increased its gold reserves to approximately 2304.457 tons, marking the twelfth consecutive month of gold accumulation [6] - Global gold demand reached a record high in Q3 2025, with total demand of 1313 tons and inflows into gold ETFs hitting an all-time high of $26 billion [6]

Core Insights - The recent fluctuations in oil prices have created uncertainty for consumers and the market, with a brief increase followed by a potential decrease in prices [1][3] - The international oil market has shown a trend of more declines than increases, impacting domestic pricing strategies [3] Price Adjustments - On November 11, domestic oil prices increased, but soon after, a downward adjustment of 30 CNY/ton was reported, closely aligning with the standard reduction threshold [3] - Following the initial increase, the price adjustment on November 12 indicated a further expected decrease of 15 CNY/ton, despite recent international price increases [3] Market Dynamics - Current international oil prices are reported at 60.73 USD/barrel for U.S. crude and 64.67 USD/barrel for Brent crude, reflecting minor daily fluctuations that influence broader market trends [3] - The relationship between oil prices and economic indicators is highlighted, suggesting that lower oil prices could reduce commuting costs but may also signal broader economic concerns [3]