2025年7月2日，银行板块逆市攀升，这是自上周五（5月27日）短暂回调后，银行连续第三日走出阳 线。个股多数上涨，兰州银行、商行银行等10余股涨逾1%，建设银行、浦发银行续创新高。 百亿顶流银行ETF（512800）低开高走，场内价格现涨0.4%，冲击日线3连阳，在所有均线上方稳步向 上。 回顾今年上半年，银行板块指数累计涨幅达13.1%，跑赢沪深300指数13.07个百分点，位居各行业（申 万一级）第二位。截至6月30日，A股银行板块总市值攀升至15.44万亿元，总市值占上市公司板块比例 为14.74%，较年初市值增幅约1.87万亿元。 就年内银行行情逻辑，银河证券认为与2023、2024年有所区别，这是因为与红利逻辑主导的2023、2024 年相比，今年以来银行板块红利价值逻辑有所降温，政策红利下的资金裂变成为主导银行估值重塑的核 心驱动。增量资金流入银行板块，多数情况下由政策推动，包括中长期资金入市、公募基金欠配调仓、 汇金增持和被动型指数ETF的发展等。 *注：截至2025.6.27，银行ETF（512800）基金规模、近1年日均成交额均居A股10只银行业ETF首位。 数据来源：沪深交易所等。 风险 ...

山东黄金 20250701 摘要 焦家金矿扰动曾导致山东黄金产量和利润大幅下降，成本显著上升，但 预计 2025 年产量逐步恢复，成本端压力有望缓解，推动市场对其二季 度业绩改善的预期。 山东黄金作为贵金属板块龙头，其股价强势表现预示着整个板块可能迎 来转折，尤其是在金价相对疲软的情况下，更显现出公司自身及板块的 潜力。 2024 年山东黄金业绩不佳主要源于焦家金矿的矿山扰动，导致产量下 降和成本上升，但 2025 年预计产量恢复，成本有望控制在 310 元/克左 右，二季度业绩预期为 18-20 亿元。 市场对山东黄金的业绩预期经历了一季度后的下调，但随着矿山恢复， 分析师逐步上调预期，目前一致预期已上调至 60 亿左右，乐观预期甚 至达到 75-78 亿，带来市值修复。 管理层变动一度对山东黄金产生影响，但随着新任董事长上任，公司有 望重拾新目标和规划，自二季度开始进入明显修复期，盈利端预期逐步 提升。 Q&A 山东黄金在近期表现强势的原因是什么？ 山东黄金近期表现强势的核心原因在于市场对其二季度业绩的乐观预期。去年 （2024 年）山东黄金的业绩表现不佳，尤其是在二季度、三季度和四季度， 业绩相较市场预 ...

Group 1 - Investors are shifting capital from the US to Europe due to concerns over US policies and the stability of the European market, with over $100 billion flowing into European equity funds this year, a threefold increase compared to the same period last year [1] - The influx of foreign direct investment in Germany has surged over 100% to €46 billion in the first four months of this year, marking the highest level since 2022, while many German companies have withdrawn investments from the US [1] - The European Central Bank's interest rate cuts and significant investments in infrastructure and defense spending are making Europe increasingly attractive to investors [2] Group 2 - Despite the attractiveness of European markets, there are warnings that the current investment enthusiasm may be fleeting, as Europe faces pressure to improve regulations and fulfill spending commitments [2] - The recent rebound in the US stock market is testing investor confidence in choosing Europe, with the S&P 500 index rising 10% in the second quarter, narrowing the gap with European markets [3] - Analysts suggest that while US stocks have strong balance sheet support, European investment themes are more speculative, depending on the actual implementation of infrastructure plans in countries like Germany [3]

Core Viewpoint - The new consumption era is gaining momentum, driven by policy support and the spending power of Generation Z, leading to significant investment opportunities in the market [1][2]. New Consumption Highlights - The stock price of Lao Pu Gold surged by 14.94% on June 30, reaching a record high of 1035 HKD, reflecting the strong recovery of the consumption sector [1]. - New consumption categories such as pets and blind boxes are becoming market highlights as younger generations take the lead in consumer spending [1][2]. Market Analysis - The new consumption sector is experiencing strong phase growth, with good performance in earnings, leading to market confidence in future growth [2]. - Concerns have arisen regarding whether some new consumption stocks have reached overvalued levels after recent price increases, prompting a need for careful evaluation of individual stock valuations [3][4]. Valuation Insights - The overall valuation of the new consumption industry is at a mid-high level, attracting significant capital due to high growth expectations, although it has not reached the extreme levels seen in 2020-2021 [4]. - The uncertainty in future cash flows makes traditional DCF valuation challenging, suggesting that PEG may be a more practical valuation method for this sector [4]. Future Outlook - The new consumption sector is expected to continue evolving, with new models and products emerging, presenting ongoing investment opportunities [6]. - There may be a divergence within the sector, with companies that can consistently meet or exceed performance expectations likely to see stock price appreciation, while those lacking new products may face declines [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant recovery in the A-share market, leading to a remarkable increase in the performance of brokerage firms, with a 7.62% rise in the Shenwan Securities secondary index driven by favorable news regarding the approval of virtual asset trading licenses for Chinese brokers in Hong Kong [1] - The A-share market's average daily trading volume reached 13,902 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 61%, and the margin financing balance reached 18,505 billion yuan, up 25% year-on-year [2] - The number of new A-share accounts exceeded 10.95 million in the first five months, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 30%, indicating a significant recovery in trading activity compared to the same period last year [2] Group 2 - The A-share equity financing scale reached 761 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of over 400%, with 51 IPO projects launched, an increase of 7 projects compared to the previous year [2] - The bond financing market also showed significant activity, with cumulative fundraising from private placements reaching 695.9 billion yuan, more than seven times that of the same period last year [2] - Analysts predict that the brokerage industry will maintain a double-digit growth rate in net profit and operating income in the first half of 2025, with net profit and operating income expected to increase by 21% and 18% respectively [8] Group 3 - Self-operated investment remains a key factor for brokerage firms, with investment income for listed brokers in the first quarter reaching 48.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46%, accounting for 39% of total income [4] - The head brokerage firms are expected to benefit from their leverage advantages and international business layouts, with a focus on cross-border financing and wealth management [5] - The overall market environment is improving, with policies and liquidity support being the main highlights for the brokerage sector, leading to expectations of simultaneous increases in profitability and valuation [6][7]

作 者丨尹华禄 编 辑丨陈思颖 资本大佬刘益谦传来新消息，旗下天茂集团股价被一基金公司"打骨折"。 7月1日，汇添富基金公告，对旗下证券投资基金所持有的"天茂集团"按照0.27元/股进行估 值，而天茂集团停牌前的价格为2.74元/股，此次下调幅度超过90%。 汇添富基金称，将密切关注上述股票的后续动态，进行合理评估，并与基金托管人协商，必 要时进一步确定其估值价格。待上述股票体现出活跃市场交易特征后，将恢复为采用当日收 盘价格进行估值，届时将不再另行公告。 根据深交所相关规定，上市公司未在法定期限内披露年度报告，且在公司股票停牌两个月内 仍未披露，将被实施退市风险警示。 若上市公司因触及上述情形其股票交易被实施退市风险警示之日起的两个月内仍未披露过半 数董事保证真实、准确、完整的相关年度报告，将被终止其股票上市交易。 这样来看，留给天茂集团的时间不多了，还剩两个多月。 据了解，基金公司下调旗下基金所投资的股票估值主要的为了保护基金持有人的利益。当上 市公司受到监管处罚或公司生产的基本面出现了较大变化而导致可能出现潜在较大调整，股 票将面临停牌或者连续跌停，因此要重新进行估值调整。 根据证监会2017年公布的《 ...

金工定期报告 20250701 估值异常因子绩效月报 20250630 2025 年 07 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 庞格致 执业证书：S0600524090003 panggz@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《估值异常因子绩效月报 20250530》 2025-06-06 《从布林带到估值异常因子》 2022-06-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 7 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 估值偏离 EPD 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）：2010 年 2 月至 2025 年 6 月，估值偏离 EPD 因子在全体 A 股（剔除北交所股票）中，5 分组多 空对冲的年化收益为 17.61%，年化波动为 9.98%，信息比率为 1.76，月 度胜率为 70.81%，月度最大回撤为 8.93%。 ◼ 缓慢偏离 EPDS 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）：2010 年 2 月至 2025 年 6 月，缓慢 ...

2025 年 07 月 01 日 证券研究报告 | 银行理财周报 股债跷跷板效应凸显，银行理财产品收益承压 销售服务电话： 021-20515355 1、《债市期限分化，银行理财产品收益普 遍 回 落 — 银 行 理 财 周 度 跟 踪 （2025.6.16-2025.6.22）》2025-06-24 2、《资金面宽松，银行理财产品收益维持 回 升 — 银 行 理 财 周 度 跟 踪 （2025.6.9-2025.6.15）》2025-06-19 3、《央行或重启国债买入，银行理财产品 收 益 回 升 — 银 行 理 财 周 度 跟 踪 （2025.6.2-2025.6.8）》2025-06-10 4、《债市走势分化，银行理财产品收益回 落—银行理财周度跟踪》2025-06-06 5、《债市震荡，各期限理财产品收益仍在 调 整 — 银 行 理 财 产 品 周 数 据 》 2025-01-22 银行理财周度跟踪（2025.6.23-2025.6.29） 分析师：蔡梦苑 分析师登记编码：S0890521120001 电话：021-20321004 邮箱：caimengyuan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登 ...

Core Viewpoint - The influx of southbound capital into Hong Kong stocks has accelerated significantly in 2024, reaching a record high for the first half of the year, which has driven the Hong Kong market to outperform global indices [1][2]. Group 1: Capital Inflow and Market Performance - Southbound capital has net inflows exceeding 730 billion HKD in the first half of 2024, marking the highest level for this period in history and nearing the total for the entire previous year [1]. - The Hang Seng Index rose by 20% in the first half of 2024, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1]. - The sectors attracting the most southbound capital include banking, telecommunications, energy, technology, new consumption, and pharmaceuticals [1][2]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The top three sectors receiving southbound capital inflows in the first half of 2024 were non-essential consumer goods (approximately 213.4 billion HKD), financials (about 177 billion HKD), and healthcare (around 82.9 billion HKD) [2]. - Notable stock performances include Pop Mart, which surged by 199%, and the construction bank, which increased by 31% [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Valuation - The southbound capital's influence has led to a significant improvement in liquidity in the Hong Kong market, narrowing the liquidity gap with the A-share market [3]. - The AH premium index has reached a low of 126.91 points, indicating a shift in market valuation dynamics [3]. - Southbound capital is increasingly concentrated in small-cap and high-dividend stocks, with over 30% ownership in certain stocks [3]. Group 4: Institutional Investment Trends - A survey indicated that 63% of institutions plan to increase their investment in Hong Kong stocks in 2025, primarily through the Stock Connect program [4]. - Hong Kong is the preferred market for overseas investments, accounting for 51% of the total overseas investment balance [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The Hong Kong market is seen as a hub for innovative consumer upgrade targets and leading hard-tech companies, with valuations still at mid-to-low levels compared to global markets [5]. - There is an expectation for continued valuation improvement in the second half of 2024, driven by high-quality companies listing in Hong Kong [5].

公募城投债中，江浙两省加权平均估值收益率均在 2.4%以下；收益率超过 4.5%的城投债出现在贵州地级市及区县级； 其余区域中，广西、云南、甘肃等地的利差也较高。与上周相比，公募城投债收益率多有小幅上行。具体来看，上行 幅度较大的品种的包括 2-3 年四川省级非永续、3-5 年安徽省级非永续、1 年内贵州地级市非永续、1 年内河北省级永 续城投债等。 私募城投债中，上海、浙江、广东、福建等沿海省份的加权平均估值收益率在 2.8%以下；收益率高于 4%的品种出现 在贵州地级市、陕西地级市、云南地级市；其余的黑龙江、青海、甘肃等地的利差也较高。与上周相比，私募城投债 中各品种收益率以上行为主。具体来看，收益率上行幅度较大的有 3-5 年广西地级市非永续、1-2 年陕西区县级非永 续、1-2 年吉林地级市非永续、3-5 年辽宁地级市非永续城投债，分别对应上行 9.9BP、9.7BP、8.0BP 和 7.7BP。 产业债： 民企产业债和地产债估值收益率及利差整体高于其他品种。与上周相比，非金融非地产类产业债收益率多有调整，其 中 1-2 年民企私募非永续品种上行幅度相对更大，平均上行 9.7BP；地产债中，国企私募非 ...