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【广发金工】权益资产有望企稳回升:大类资产配置分析月报(2025年3月)
广发金融工程研究· 2025-04-02 03:32
Core Viewpoints - The current macroeconomic environment is generally favorable for equity, bond, industrial products, and gold assets, while the technical analysis indicates a downward trend for equity, bond, and industrial products, and an upward trend for gold assets [1][3][21]. Macroeconomic Perspective - The analysis categorizes macroeconomic indicators into upward and downward trends, assessing their impact on asset returns. A significant difference in average returns is noted based on the trend direction of these indicators [3][4]. - The macroeconomic indicators suggest a positive outlook for equity, bond, industrial products, and gold assets [5][6]. Technical Perspective - The trend indicators for various asset classes show that as of March 31, 2025, equity, bond, and industrial products are trending downwards, while gold is trending upwards [10][11]. - The equity asset valuation is currently low, with a historical 5-year ERP percentile of 78.36% [14][15]. Asset Flow Indicators - As of February 2025, the equity asset's net inflow is 462 billion, indicating a state of capital inflow [17][18]. Summary of Views - The combined scores from macro and technical analyses indicate a bullish outlook for equity and gold, a neutral stance for industrial products, and a bullish view for bonds [19][21]. Asset Allocation Performance Tracking - Historical performance data shows that the fixed ratio combined with macro and technical indicators yielded a return of 1.20% in March 2025, with an annualized return of 11.92% since March 2006 [2][27]. - The volatility-controlled and risk-parity combinations yielded returns of 1.72% and 1.18%, respectively, with annualized returns of 9.33% and 9.66% since March 2006 [28].
网上炒黄金可靠吗?国际现货黄金交易策略有哪些?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-03-29 09:02
Core Viewpoint - Effective international spot gold trading strategies are crucial for investors to achieve returns in the financial market [1] Trading Strategies Summary - **Risk Management**: Investors should set reasonable stop-loss and take-profit points to control risk exposure. Diversification is also an effective method to reduce risk by investing in different asset types [3] - **Trend Trading**: Gold price movements exhibit certain trends, which are difficult to change once established. Investors should respect the trend unless a clear market change occurs [3] - **Limit Price Platforms**: Choosing limit price platforms for trading can help control risks by allowing investors to set stop-loss and take-profit levels effectively [3] - **Technical Analysis**: Analyzing charts and technical indicators, such as moving averages and RSI, can help predict price movements and inform buy/sell decisions [4] - **Light Position Trading**: Investors should operate with light positions and follow market trends to increase the chances of success while avoiding excessive risk [4] - **Timing the Market**: Due to high volatility in the gold market, investors must choose appropriate entry points based on market trends and their risk tolerance [5] - **Understanding Price Influences**: Gold prices are affected by various factors, including the US dollar exchange rate, global political situations, and economic data, which investors need to monitor closely [5] - **Range Trading Strategy**: This strategy is suitable for stable market conditions, where investors buy near support levels and sell near resistance levels to profit from price fluctuations [6] - **Maintaining Composure**: Trading psychology significantly impacts outcomes. Investors should remain calm and rational, adhering to their strategies without succumbing to market emotions [7] - **Continuous Learning**: Patience and discipline are essential qualities for successful trading. Investors should cultivate these traits and consistently improve their trading skills and experience [9]
郑氏点银:黄金修正三日,坚守日线10均线,该做出决断了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-03-25 18:30
郑氏点银:黄金修正三日,坚守日线10均线,该做出决断了 郑氏点银:黄金修正三日,坚守日线10均线,该做出决断了 回顾昨日行情走势及出现的技术点: 第一,黄金方面:昨日亚欧盘震荡慢反弹,但美盘并未延续,而是打压破了日内低点,尾盘再企稳反抽,日线延续震荡下调,但力度不大,整体上走势相对 颠簸; 第二,白银方面:和黄金走势同步,白盘震荡一路慢涨,美盘掉头往下,再企稳; 第三,原油方面:前几日一直运行的震荡扫荡区间,隔夜是承压了下,但回调力度有限,今日有所上破; 今日行情分析解读: 第一,黄金日线级别:昨日再次回踩,依旧坚守MA10日之上,高位已修正三个交易日。一般来讲,短期调整三天是极限,看今日能否收一个不错的阳K 线; MA10日支撑上移3008一线,也是早间启动点,而MA5日阻力在3030一线,只有收盘站上它,才能回归走强单边去刷新高;因此,这两日来讲,仍是耐 心等待两均线之间的争夺;最终不管如何,都迟早会刷3056新高,无非就是调整时间的长短罢了,能企稳于3000之上,调整时间就应该差不多了,随时会强 攻;而若失守3000向下,则还有进一步下调时间,后市就需要再耐心磨几天; 第二,黄金4小时级别:此周期的关键 ...
狗狗币多空比转强,0.17美元支撑成关键;XRP飙升至 1400 美元?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-03-25 15:40
关键价格水平: 技术指标分析: 狗狗币多空比转强,0.17美元支撑成关键;XRP飙升至 1400 美元? 狗狗币市场情绪转暖,技术面显示潜在上行空间 最新数据显示,狗狗币(DOGE)市场情绪出现明显转变。过去24小时内,该加密货币的多空比率从0.85上升至1.20,达到近一周高点,表明看涨情绪正 在增强。 多位技术分析师指出,XRP/USDT周线图已完成重要技术形态突破,可能开启长期上涨行情。主要观点如下: 1. 牛市旗形突破: 1. 短期技术结构: 当前支撑位:0.17美元 短期阻力位:0.182美元(50日均线) 潜在上行目标:0.22-0.23美元区间 下行风险位:0.16美元 1. 相对强弱指数(RSI)维持在50附近中性区域 2. 布林带呈现收窄态势 3. MACD指标保持平稳 4. 这些技术信号通常预示着价格可能进入波动阶段。 历时6年的下降通道被有效突破 根据技术形态量度目标,理论涨幅可达1452美元 该形态通常被视为趋势延续信号 市场观察: 历史数据显示,当DOGE多空比率突破1.00阈值时,价格往往会出现相应波动。目前该代币在0.17美元附近获得支撑,若能维持在这一水平上方,可能为 测试更高 ...