2026 年 2 月 2 日 股指期货将偏弱震荡 黄金、白银、铂、钯、碳酸锂期货将 震荡偏弱 焦煤、玻璃期货将震荡偏强 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： | 期货品 | 主力合 | 趋势 | 阻力位 | | | | 支撑位 | | 重点备注 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 约 | | | | | | | | | | | 股指 | IF2603 | 偏 ...

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4117.95 points, down 0.96%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 14205.89 points, down 0.66%. The STAR 50 Index rose by 0.12%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.27%. The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 286.24 billion yuan, an increase from the previous day [1][5][7] - Among the 30 sectors tracked by CITIC, 6 sectors saw gains, with telecommunications, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, as well as electronics leading the increases. Conversely, non-ferrous metals, steel, and food and beverage sectors experienced significant declines [1][5][7] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.36%, the S&P 500 down by 0.43%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreasing by 0.94%. The index tracking the seven major U.S. tech companies also dropped by 0.32% [2][5] Key News Highlights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China conducted a collective study on forward-looking layouts and the development of future industries, with President Xi Jinping delivering an important speech emphasizing the significance of nurturing future industries for national development [9][10] - An important article by Xi Jinping titled "Walking the Path of Financial Development with Chinese Characteristics and Building a Financial Power" will be published in the upcoming issue of "Qiushi" magazine, outlining the principles for developing a robust financial system [13][14] - The personal income tax threshold for individual taxpayers has been raised to 1000 yuan per transaction, effective this year [17][18] - British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's visit to China resulted in 12 cooperation agreements, marking a significant step in UK-China relations [19] Driving Factors - The upcoming publication of Xi Jinping's article is expected to influence market sentiment, as it outlines the strategic direction for China's financial development and emphasizes the importance of a strong financial system [8][14] - The A-share market saw 2453 stocks rise, 2896 decline, and 113 remain unchanged, indicating a volatile trading environment influenced by international market fluctuations [8]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，据广东省发展改革委网站2月2日消息，广东省发展改革委印发《广东省2026年优化市场 化一流营商环境工作方案》。其中指出，优化土地和产业空间供给。支持工业项目分期支付土地价款， 首期按不低于50%的比例缴纳土地出让价款，剩余价款在出让合同生效之日起一年内全部缴清且不计利 息。支持在不同用途用地之间合理实行功能转换、混合设置，满足新兴产业、未来产业发展的新型用地 需求。推行产业用地"标准地"出让、"交地即开工"，提升土地供应效率。推行产业链关联企业"联合拿 地、联合建楼"，支持指导企业办理工业物业产权分割及分割转让不动产登记。推行"抵押即交证"，满 足项目建设不同阶段抵押融资需求。结合不同产业需求和特定工艺需求，探索分类制定特色厂房建设指 引。建设创新型街区和复合型创业生态园区，建立完善"一张办公桌、一间办公室、一层办公楼"的乐业 办公体系，为初创企业提供低成本创业空间及产业孵化等配套服务。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of Treasury bond futures showed mixed trends, with the T2603 contract rising 0.06% and its open interest increasing. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures were at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates also showed mixed trends, and the yields of key - term Treasury bonds at home and abroad were also mixed. Due to factors like central bank policies, economic data, and potential changes in Fed policies, Treasury bond futures prices have stabilized [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of TS2603, TS2606, TF2603, TF2606, T2603, T2606, TL2603, and TL2606 were 102.394, 102.418, 105.890, 105.920, 108.310, 108.310, 111.92, and 112.04 respectively. Their price changes were 0.000, - 0.010, 0.015, 0.010, 0.060, 0.055, - 0.250, and - 0.260, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.00%, - 0.01%, 0.01%, 0.01%, 0.06%, 0.05%, - 0.22%, and - 0.23%. The open interest of the contracts were 66252, 9944, 138897, 41141, 260856, 38227, 134801, and 43929, and the changes in open interest were 205, 293, - 325, 3584, 2252, 3821, - 1593, and 890. The trading volumes were 27498, 1747, 52879, 8129, 68999, 12230, 99361, and 13232 [2] - **Cross - period Spreads**: The cross - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.024, - 0.030, 0.000, and - 0.120, compared to the previous values of - 0.034, - 0.0350, - 0.0050, and - 0.1300 [2] - **IRR of CTD Bonds**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts were 1.1521, 1.3421, 1.375, 1.4431, 1.2696, 1.381, 0.8513, and 0.4079, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR7 days, DR001, DR007, GC001, GC007, FR001, and FR007 were 1.3280, 1.5800, 1.5086, 1.6401, 1.6290, 1.6140, 1.6, and 1.64 respectively. Their changes were - 4bp, 0.8bp, 7.05bp, 1.56bp, 6.8bp, 0.1bp, 14bp, and 2bp [2] - **Domestic Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 6M, 1Y, 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 20Y, and 30Y Treasury bonds were 1.29%, 1.30%, 1.38%, 1.58%, 1.68%, 1.81%, 2.30%, and 2.29%. The changes were - 2.49bp, 0.02bp, - 0.43bp, - 0.23bp, - 0.95bp, - 0.97bp, 1bp, and 0.5bp. The yield spreads of 10 - 2, 10 - 5, 5 - 2, and 30 - 10 were 38.10bp, 29.39bp, 8.71bp, and 47.47bp [2] - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of US 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, German 2Y, 10Y, Japanese 2Y, and 10Y Treasury bonds were 3.52%, 3.79%, 4.26%, 4.87%, 2.070%, 2.920%, 1.251%, and 2.247%. The changes were - 1.0bp, - 1.0bp, 2.0bp, 2.0bp, 0.0bp, 0.0bp, - 1.3bp, and - 0.5bp. The internal - external yield spreads were - 213.6bp, - 221.4bp, - 245.0bp, - 258.5bp, - 68.6bp, - 111.0bp, 13.3bp, and - 43.7bp [2] Macroeconomic News - **Central Bank Operations**: On January 30, the central bank conducted 477.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. With 125 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net injection was 352.5 billion yuan. This week, 1.7615 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 700 billion yuan of 91 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature on Wednesday [3] - **PMI Data**: The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease; the composite PMI output index was 49.8%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease [3] - **Policy - related News**: The Politburo of the CPC Central Committee held the 24th collective study session on forward - looking layout and development of future industries. President Xi Jinping's important article on building a financial power will be published in Qiushi Journal. US President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, but there are obstacles to the nomination [3] Industry Information - **Money Market Interest Rates**: On January 30, most money market interest rates declined. The weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchases and inter - bank lending showed different trends for different tenors [3] - **US Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields of US Treasury bonds showed mixed trends, with the 2 - year yield down 2.85bp, 3 - year down 3.35bp, 5 - year down 2.42bp, 10 - year up 0.62bp, and 30 - year up 1.75bp [3] Comments and Strategies - The central bank's net injection this week was 580.5 billion yuan. Shibor short - end varieties showed differentiation, and the money market remained stable before the Spring Festival. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate, and there are expectations of a unique policy combination if Kevin Warsh becomes the Fed Chair. The 2025 GDP growth target was achieved as scheduled, but the real estate market is still adjusting. The Ministry of Finance and the central bank have announced policies, and due to increased volatility in the equity and commodity markets, Treasury bond futures prices have stabilized [3]

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.93% at 4079.71, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.54% at 14128.87, and the ChiNext Index up 0.65% at 3368.14 [1] Policy and Regulatory Developments - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the strategic importance of advancing future industries during a collective study session led by Xi Jinping [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focusing on deepening capital market reforms and enhancing the adaptability of regulations, including expanding the types of strategic investors for listed companies [3][3] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a decline in the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) to 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [3] Company Announcements and Financial Performance - SpaceX is applying to launch and operate a satellite constellation of up to 1 million satellites, along with building an AI data center network in orbit [3] - Companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Technology are projecting significant net profit increases for 2025, with estimates of 89.50%-128.17% and 231%-249% year-on-year growth, respectively [5][5] - Several companies, including Huaneng Power and China Mobile, announced expected losses for 2025, with Huaneng Power projecting a net loss of 10 billion to 16.5 billion yuan [6][7] Market Trends and Investment Insights - Citic Securities suggests a shift from speculative investments to quality assets, indicating a potential recovery window for blue-chip stocks as the ETF redemption tide appears to be ending [12] - Huatai Securities notes that while the market may experience short-term fluctuations, the core drivers for the spring market rally remain intact, with recommendations to focus on high-quality sectors such as power equipment and semiconductor devices [13]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.96% to 4117.95 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.66%. The ChiNext Index, however, rose by 1.27% [1][7] - The total trading volume in the A-share market was 2.86 trillion RMB, with nearly 2900 stocks declining. The communication sector led the gains, while the non-ferrous metals sector saw the largest losses [1][7] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index dropped by 2.08%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 2.1%. In the overseas markets, all three major U.S. stock indices declined, with the Dow Jones down by 0.36%, the S&P 500 down by 0.43%, and the Nasdaq down by 0.94% [1][7] Important News - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the acceleration of the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, highlighting the importance of leveraging comparative advantages to promote breakthroughs in future industries [2][8] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the manufacturing PMI for January was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points month-on-month. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4%, indicating a decline in business activity due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [2][8] Sector Analysis - In the social services sector, the proportion of heavy positions in funds increased, with 286 funds holding shares, up by 109 from the previous quarter. The total market value of holdings reached 5.57 billion RMB, an increase of 0.975 billion RMB [9][10] - The heavy position ratio for the social services sector was 0.06%, up by 0.01 percentage points, ranking 27th among 31 sectors, indicating potential for rebound as it remains below the 5-year average of 0.34% [9][10] - The hospitality and restaurant sectors showed slight recovery, while the education sector saw a significant decline in heavy position ratios [9][10] Individual Stocks - Leading stocks in the social services sector saw increased holdings, with the top ten stocks' combined heavy position ratio rising to 0.058%, an increase of 0.013 percentage points from the previous quarter. Notable stocks include Huace Testing, Shoulv Hotel, and JiuHua Tourism [10][11] - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the upcoming long holiday and those positioned to take advantage of the Hainan Free Trade Port's opportunities [11] Beauty and Personal Care Sector - The beauty and personal care sector saw a decrease in fund allocation, with the total market value of A-shares at 255.096 billion RMB, down by 10.43% from the previous quarter. The fund allocation ratio was 0.14%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points [12][13] - The personal care and cosmetics segments remain in a low allocation zone, while the medical beauty segment is in an over-allocated position [12][13] - Key stocks in the beauty and personal care sector include Jinbo Biological, Aimeike, and Baiya Shares, with their heavy position ratios declining compared to the previous quarter [14]

Company and Industry Insights - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is seeking public opinion on amendments to the regulations regarding strategic investors, allowing various institutional investors to participate as strategic investors in listed companies, with a minimum shareholding requirement of 5% [4] - As of January 31, 3,057 listed companies have disclosed performance forecasts, with 1,638 companies expecting positive results, representing 53.6% of the total; industries such as non-ferrous metals and non-bank financials are performing well [4] - The public fund issuance market had a strong start in January 2026, with 123 new funds raising a total of 120.21 billion yuan, indicating a trend towards concentration in top-performing products [5] - The telecommunications companies China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom announced that from January 1, 2026, the VAT rate for certain services will increase from 6% to 9%, which will impact their revenue and profits [9] - The electric vehicle sector is experiencing accelerated growth, with new energy heavy trucks achieving a monthly penetration rate exceeding 50%, benefiting companies like Yutong Heavy Industry and Hanma Technology [8] - The company Kunlun Wanwei is expected to report a net loss of 1.35 billion to 1.95 billion yuan for 2025, while Cambrian is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.85 billion to 2.15 billion yuan, indicating a turnaround [10][11] - Tencent's new AI application initiatives have gained significant traction, with its app quickly rising to the top of the free app rankings on the Apple Store [13]

Group 1 - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the strategic importance of advancing future industries for national development and rejuvenation during a collective study session on January 30 [1] - Xi Jinping highlighted the need for a modern financial system with a focus on a scientific and stable financial regulation system, a well-structured financial market, and diverse financial products and services [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is working to enhance the capital market's stability and reform, including the introduction of reforms for the ChiNext board and improving the flexibility of refinancing systems [1][2] Group 2 - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for January was 49.3, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration announced a new mechanism for power generation capacity pricing, particularly for regions with high renewable energy installations [1] - The China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom announced an increase in the value-added tax rate from 6% to 9%, which will impact their revenue and profits [1][2] Group 3 - SpaceX is applying to launch and operate a satellite constellation of up to 1 million satellites and is developing an AI data center network in orbit [1] - SpaceX's revenue for the previous year was approximately $15-16 billion, with Starlink accounting for 50% to 80% of total revenue, and the company plans to raise $50 billion in an IPO [2] - The U.S. Federal Communications Commission disclosed SpaceX's plans, indicating significant developments in the satellite and space technology sector [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of integrating technological innovation with industrial innovation to enhance competitiveness and drive high-quality development in the region [1][5]. Group 1: Technological Innovation - The local government is focusing on leveraging the advantages of the Shanghai (Yangtze River Delta) International Science and Technology Innovation Center to optimize the spatial layout of industrial innovation [5]. - There is a call for the establishment and effective utilization of new research and development institutions to achieve breakthroughs in key core technologies [5]. - The government encourages companies to adapt to changing consumer demands by upgrading technology and launching high-quality products [4]. Group 2: Industrial Innovation - The article highlights the need for enterprises to take the lead in innovation, with support from research institutions and universities to form collaborative innovation entities [5]. - There is an emphasis on the importance of transforming innovation results into new productive forces, thereby enhancing industrial competitiveness [5]. - Companies are encouraged to increase research and development investments, particularly in cutting-edge fields such as automotive electronics and intelligent manufacturing [4]. Group 3: Future Industry Development - The government aims to cultivate future industries through a steady and progressive approach, ensuring development is tailored to local conditions and promotes differentiated growth [5]. - There is a focus on creating a first-class innovation ecosystem that integrates education, technology, and talent development to attract global innovation resources [5]. - The initiative aims to stimulate entrepreneurial and innovative activities by nurturing leading technology companies and top-tier innovative talents [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the construction decoration industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the arrival of a new industrial era, highlighting significant opportunities for construction companies to engage in cross-industry transformations [17]. - It notes that the net financing of special bonds has increased year-on-year, with a total of 3,086 billion yuan in net financing as of January 30, 2026, which is higher than the average of the past three years [22][23]. - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, quantum technology, AI, and future energy sources like nuclear power and controlled nuclear fusion [17][20]. Summary by Sections Industry Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the construction of key projects in the western region during the "14th Five-Year Plan," recommending state-owned enterprises such as China Railway Construction and China State Construction [11]. - It highlights the potential benefits for companies involved in tunneling, civil explosives, and geotechnical engineering due to high demand in these sectors [28]. - The report also encourages investment in new economic directions such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, computing power, and AI, recommending companies like Roman Technology and Honglu Steel Structure [28]. Market Performance Review - The construction decoration index fell by 1.44% this week, underperforming the overall A-share index, which declined by 0.44% [34]. - Notable performers included Roman Technology (+18.6%) and Taiji Industry (+16.03%), while companies like Hexin Instruments (-20.65%) and Su Testing (-15.05%) saw significant declines [34][35]. Key Company Dynamics - The report tracks significant company developments, including China Railway Construction signing new contracts worth 1.6 trillion yuan in Q4, showing stability compared to the previous year [21]. - It also notes that Zhite New Materials expects a net profit of 160-200 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 117.11% to 171.39% [21].