油脂周报 | 2025-06-22 受多重利好持续提振，油脂偏强运行 油脂观点 市场要闻与重要数据 价格行情 期货方面，本周收盘棕榈油2509合约8536元/吨，环比上涨396元，涨幅4.86%；本周收盘豆油2509合约8156元 /吨，环比上涨370元，涨幅4.75%；本周收盘菜油2509合约9726元/吨，环比上涨416元，涨幅4.47%。现货方面， 广东地区棕榈油现货价格8480元/吨，环比上涨250元，涨幅2.95%，现货基差P09+194，环比下跌146元；天津 地区一级豆油现货价格8340元/吨，环比上涨300元/吨，涨幅3.73%，现货基差Y09+184，环比下跌70元；江苏 地区四级菜油现货价格9910元/吨，环比上涨400元，涨幅4.2%，现货基差OI09+184，环比下跌16元。 棕榈油供需 供应方面，马来西亚棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）最新数据显示，2025年6月1-15日马来西亚棕榈鲜果串单产 减少3.85%，出油率下调0.03%，棕榈油产量减少4%。由于前期产量同比增加幅度明显、基数增大，近期棕榈油 产量环比止增下降，供应方面对价格暂无较大压力，持续关注产区天气情况。周内（6.1 ...

油脂油料研究员 从业资格号: F03114441 交易咨询号: Z0022498 电话: 010-63951073 邮箱: sxwei@wkqh.cn 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 从业资格号: F0273729 交易咨询号: Z0002942 邮箱: wangja@wkqh.cn 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号: F03116327 交易咨询号: Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 斯小伟 隔夜美豆假期休市,国内豆粕期货偏强震荡,9月以后买船较少、美豆偏紧基本面支撑国内豆粕,远月 合约跟随外盘成本上涨,周四国内豆粕现货稳定,华东低价报 2910 元/吨。MYSTEEL 统计上周国内大豆 小幅去库,豆粕小幅累库,豆粕表需达历史同期最高,饲料企业库存天数也环比增加,观察后续压榨提 货进度。周四国内豆粕成交较好,远月成交放量,提货较好,开机率较高。 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，前期偏干区域迎来降雨。前期我们预判美豆年度级别进 入了震荡磨底过程,不过走出底部区间仍然需要产量、生物柴油需求、全球宏观、贸易战的进一步驱动. 当前美豆端生物柴油 ...

| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月20日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 王凌辉 Z0019938 | | | | | | | 员知 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6月19日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6月18日 张跃 张跌幅 | | | | | | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | | 8400 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 8350 50 0.60% | | ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 王浅辉 Z0019938 2025年6月19日 | | | | | 原田 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 8350 30 现价 江苏一级 | | 8320 | 0.36% | | 期价 Y2509 7680 ୧୧ | | 7614 | 0.87% | | 基差 Y2509 670 -36 | | 706 | -5.10% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏6月 09+250 -10 | | 09+260 | - | | 仓单 17552 0 | | 17552 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8800 -10 | | 8810 | -0.11% | | 期价 P2509 8350 ୧୧ | | 8284 | 0.80% | | 其差 P2509 450 -76 | | 526 | -14.45% | | 现货墓差报价 09+320 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 王浅辉 Z0019938 2025年6月19日 | | | | | 原田 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 8350 30 现价 江苏一级 | | 8320 | 0.36% | | 期价 Y2509 7680 ୧୧ | | 7614 | 0.87% | | 基差 Y2509 670 -36 | | 706 | -5.10% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏6月 09+250 -10 | | 09+260 | - | | 仓单 17552 0 | | 17552 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8800 -10 | | 8810 | -0.11% | | 期价 P2509 8350 ୧୧ | | 8284 | 0.80% | | 其差 P2509 450 -76 | | 526 | -14.45% | | 现货墓差报价 09+320 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The soybean supply is tight due to Argentina's reduced soybean production and Brazil's delayed harvest, and the global soybean inventory - consumption ratio has reached a five - year low. The demand for soybean oil from the food processing and biodiesel industries is increasing, and the rise in international crude oil prices has also had a positive impact on soybean oil futures prices. Therefore, the soybean oil futures market should be treated with a bullish bias [3]. - The overall situation is favorable for A - shares. The market is expected to continue high - level fluctuations, but a short - term directional choice is pending [6]. - Gold is still bullish. Although the Shanghai gold is relatively weak, it will follow the upward trend. Reaching a new high is only a matter of time, and a low - buying strategy is more prudent [10][11]. - For iron ore, the supply has increased month - on - month, iron water production has weakened seasonally, and ports have resumed inventory accumulation. The over - valuation risk has increased. Attention should be paid to steel mill profits and important support levels below, and it should be viewed with a fluctuating perspective [14][15]. - For glass, the supply side has not experienced significant cold repairs due to losses, factory inventories are still high, downstream demand has not seen a continuous increase, and it is necessary to wait for the effect of real - estate stimulus policies. Technically, it has shown narrow - range fluctuations recently and should be viewed with a fluctuating mindset [18][19]. - For urea, the domestic daily production is about 20560 tons with an operating rate of about 87.23%. Agricultural demand progress is slow, and the price is in a weak adjustment. When it reaches the previous support area, short - position holders should take profits and beware of a strong long - side rebound [22]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Soybean Oil Futures - On June 18, 2025, the main contract y2509 of soybean oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose by 72 yuan to 8040 yuan. The reasons for the recent price increase include tight soybean supply (Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production decreased to 49 million tons, a 6% year - on - year decrease, and Brazil's soybean harvest was delayed, with the global soybean inventory - consumption ratio dropping to 28%, a five - year low), increased demand from the food processing and biodiesel industries, and the positive impact of the 4.28% increase in international crude oil prices on June 17 [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The overall situation is favorable for A - shares. The market is expected to continue high - level fluctuations, but a short - term directional choice is pending. Today, the three major A - share indexes rebounded after hitting the bottom, oscillated slightly higher in the afternoon, and closed with small positive lines [6][7]. Technical Analysis - Gold - Due to the intensification of geopolitical risks caused by Israel's raid on Iran, the external gold market is approaching a new high. Although Shanghai gold is relatively weak, it still follows the upward trend. Gold is still bullish, reaching a new high is only a matter of time, and a low - buying strategy is more prudent [10][11]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore has increased month - on - month, iron water production has weakened seasonally, and ports have resumed inventory accumulation. The over - valuation risk has increased. Attention should be paid to steel mill profits and important support levels below, and it should be viewed with a fluctuating perspective [14][15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The supply side of glass has not experienced significant cold repairs due to losses, factory inventories are still high, downstream demand has not seen a continuous increase, and it is necessary to wait for the effect of real - estate stimulus policies. Technically, it has shown narrow - range fluctuations recently and should be viewed with a fluctuating mindset [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Urea - The domestic daily production of urea is about 20560 tons with an operating rate of about 87.23%. Agricultural demand progress is slow, and the price is in a weak adjustment. When it reaches the previous support area, short - position holders should take profits and beware of a strong long - side rebound [22].

五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 从业资格号: F0273729 交易咨询号: Z0002942 邮箱: wangja@wkqh.cn 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号: F03116327 交易咨询号: Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 斯小伟 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号: F03114441 交易咨询号: Z0022498 电话: 010-63951073 邮箱: sxwei@wkqh.cn 周一美豆震荡为主,美豆油仍因 RVO 草案给出的高需求延续上涨,不过美豆粕下跌,全球蛋白过剩, 限制美豆涨幅。周一国内豆粕现货上调 20 元/吨，华东低价报 2860 元/吨。MYSTEEL 统计上周国内大豆 小幅去库,豆粕小幅累库,豆粕表需达历史同期最高,饲料企业库存天数也环比增加,观察后续压榨提 货进度。周一国内豆粕成交尚可,提货较好,开机率较高。 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好,覆盖大部分产区,前期偏干区域迎来降雨。前期我们预判美豆年度级别进 入了震荡磨底过程,不过走出底部区间仍然需要产量、生物柴油需求、全球宏观、贸易战的进一步驱动. 当前美豆端生物柴油政策 ...

文字早评 2025/06/17 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+0.35%，创指+0.66%，科创 50-0.21%，北证 50+1.84%，上证 50+0.32%，沪深 300+0.25%， 中证 500+0.48%，中证 1000+0.68%，中证 2000+1.07%，万得微盘+1.38%。两市合计成交 12151 亿，较上 一日-2521 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、5 月份全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.8%，环比增长 0.61%。1-5 月全国固定资产投资增长 3.7%； 社会消费品零售总额 41326 亿元，同比增长 6.4%，比上月加快 1.3 个百分点；环比增长 0.93%。 2、5 月各线城市二手房价环比降幅扩大，一线城市环比降幅扩大至 0.7%，二、三线城市环比降幅均扩 大至 0.5%；各线二手房价同比降幅继续收窄，商品房待售面积连续三个月减少。 3、2025 陆家嘴论坛将于 6 月 18 日至 6 月 19 日召开，论坛期间中央金融管理部门将发布若干重大金融 政策，有望呵护股市风险偏好。 4、特朗普表示，他认为以色列与伊朗"有很大可能"达成协议，但也称"有时候他们需要打一仗" ...

| 豆棕价差 2509 -476 -354 -122 -34.46% | | --- | | 王滚辉 Z0019938 2025年6月17日 | | 更加 | | 6月16日 涨跌 | | 江苏一级 8300 8130 170 2.09% | | 7576 7444 132 期价 Y2509 1.77% | | 幕差 Y2509 724 ୧୫୧ 38 5.54% | | 菜豆油价差 现货 1350 1400 -20 -3.57% | | 仓单 17552 17552 0 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | 2509 1545 1524 21 1.38% 采豆油价差 | | 现价 广东24度 8790 8530 260 3.05% | | 期价 P2509 8258 7976 282 3.54% | | 某差 P2509 532 554 -22 -3.97% | | 现货墓差报价 广东6月 09+350 09 +400 -50 - | | 盘面进口成本 广州港9月 8825.0 8560.1 264.8 3.09% | | 2.94% | | 0.00% | | 菜籽油 | | 6月16日 6月13日 涨跌 旅 ...

Report Rating - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content Core Viewpoints - US biodiesel policy and Middle - East situation push up US soybean prices, increasing import costs. In China, ample soybean supply and high - level oil mill operations lead to rising bean - meal inventory. With the increase in import costs, bean - meal spot prices stabilize, and market trading volume drops significantly. In the short term, the bean - meal market is in a weak - reality and strong - expectation situation with a likely oscillatory trend [17] - For the pig market, the supply side has a normal slaughter rhythm and decreasing average slaughter weight, with increasing medium - term supply pressure. The demand side is in a seasonal off - peak, with weak consumption unable to support prices. Although the pig futures price rebounds in the short term due to policies and feed price hikes, weak demand restricts the spot price increase, and the basis weakens rapidly, potentially limiting the upside of the futures market. Pig prices are expected to oscillate [17] Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - DCE bean - meal main contract 2509 rose 0.13% to 3045 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous day. Coastal oil mills' quotes increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. DCE pig main contract 2509 fell 0.07% to 13780 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract rose 2.44% to 1069 cents/bushel [2] 2. Weather in Main Production Areas - On June 13, in the US Midwest agricultural main production areas, the western region will have scattered to widespread scattered showers until Sunday. Before Saturday, the southern region's temperature is near to above normal, and the northern region's temperature is below normal, then above normal from Sunday to Monday. The eastern region will have scattered showers until Sunday and scattered to widespread scattered showers on Monday. Before Saturday, the temperature is near to above normal, near normal on Sunday, and near to above normal on Monday. Rainfall in the southern part of the US Midwest has decreased since the middle of this week [4] 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - From June 7 to 13, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2587 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.49%, 28,600 tons lower than expected [5] - On June 16, the import cost of US soybeans was 4603 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan/ton from the previous day; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3812 yuan/ton, up 91 yuan/ton; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3669 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [5] - On June 13, the total bean - meal sales of major oil mills in China were 97,300 tons, a decrease of 570,600 tons from the previous day. Spot sales were 69,300 tons, an increase of 4400 tons, and far - month basis sales were 28,000 tons, a decrease of 575,000 tons. The operating rate of all - sample oil mills was 64.82%, a decrease of 1.34% from the previous day [5] - As of June 12, the soybean harvest rate in Argentina in the 2024/25 season was 95%, up from 91% the previous week and lower than 97% in the same period last year [5] - As of the week of June 11, the rapeseed planting rate in Saskatchewan, Canada, was 99.73%, an increase of 2.8% from the previous week [6] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs decreased. On June 12, the average weight of slaughtered pigs was 125.76 kg/head, a decrease of 0.24 kg/head from the previous week. Farmers' bearish expectations led to active weight - loss slaughter, and the proportion of standard pigs purchased by slaughterhouses increased [6] - On June 12, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 120 yuan/head, a decrease of 23 yuan/head from the previous week; the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was 127 yuan/head, a decrease of 9 yuan/head. Due to weak demand and increased supply, both types of profits decreased [6] - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year - on - year, 1.3 percentage points faster than the previous month. From January to May, service retail sales increased by 5.2%, 0.1 percentage point faster than from January to April [6] - In May, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The unemployment rate of the main employment population remained stable, and the youth unemployment rate decreased for three consecutive months [7] - In May, China's new social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 620 billion yuan, and new RMB deposits were nearly 2.18 trillion yuan. At the end of May, M2 increased by 7.9% year - on - year, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [7] 4. Data Charts - The report includes charts of bean - meal, rapeseed - meal, and pig prices, as well as their basis and inventory data [10][12][14][15] 5. Analysis and Strategies - For bean - meal, short - term trends are oscillatory due to the combination of high domestic supply and increasing import costs [17] - For pigs, prices are expected to oscillate due to the contradiction between supply pressure and weak demand [17]