德国副总理兼财政部长拉尔斯·克林拜尔4日在美国首都华盛顿表示，欧盟此前在与美国的贸易谈判中过 于软弱，应采取更强硬的立场。 克林拜尔当天在与美国财政部长贝森特会谈前表示，欧盟与美国上月达成的贸易协议中，仍有许多内容 需要澄清。"我们必须变得更强硬，"克林拜尔说，"这样才可以更自信地与美国对话。" 克林拜尔还表示，欧盟需要找到能快速解决与美国贸易冲突的办法，因为企业在制订计划时需要确定 性。 作为欧盟最大经济体，德国当前经济高度依赖对美出口。按照美国近日公布的所谓"对等关税"税率，欧 盟大部分对美出口商品将被征收15%关税。欧盟还对美作出承诺，将增加对美投资和能源采购。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

特朗普的关税清单像一张分级标签：英国、巴西拿着10%的"友好卡"；日韩等盟友贴着15%的"常规 签"；东南亚部分国家被打上19%-20%的"惩罚标"。而叙利亚41%、缅甸老挝40%、瑞士39%、阿尔及利 亚30%、加拿大35%的高税率，各有各的缘由——叙利亚贸易量微乎其微，加拿大则手握美国东北部 85%的电力供应作为反制筹码。 印度的处境却截然不同。25%的基础税率在主要经济体中"名列前茅"，更致命的是附加条件。要知道， 印度国有石油公司此前依赖俄罗斯低价石油维持国内能源稳定，特朗普的威胁一出，这些公司立马暂停 采购，等于被掐住了经济命脉。有消息称，印度石油部紧急会议持续到深夜，烟雾缭绕中满是无力感。 二、从"画饼"到"认怂"，印度底牌被看穿 谈判初期，印度还给美国画过"大饼"：许诺2030年达成5000亿美元贸易规模，抛出军购和油气大单。但 特朗普身为"空头支票"行家，根本不吃这套。 特朗普签下全球关税清单的那一刻，恐怕没人想到，印度会成为最狼狈的那个。税率从10%到41%的名 单里，叙利亚41%的数字看着刺眼，却因贸易体量小形同虚设；加拿大35%的税率带着火药味，却有底 气与美国周旋。唯独印度，25%的基 ...

Group 1: US-India Trade Relations - The US has imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods, which is more severe than tariffs on other major trading partners, escalating tensions in US-India relations [1][2] - India's opposition parties criticized Prime Minister Modi's government for failing to protect national interests, highlighting the negative impact on various industries [2] - Modi's government condemned the US measures as political coercion and a violation of WTO rules, leading to formal protests and retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products [2] Group 2: Economic Impact on India - Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) turned net sellers in July, withdrawing ₹177.41 billion from Indian stock markets, marking the first monthly outflow after three months of inflows [5] - The Nifty 50 index has experienced a continuous five-week decline, the longest streak in two years, with the IT sector seeing a 10% drop [5][6] - The Indian rupee has depreciated by 1.2% in the past week, the largest weekly decline since December 2022, and is projected to be one of the weakest currencies in Asia for 2025 [1][6] Group 3: Ongoing Trade Negotiations - Despite US threats regarding oil imports from Russia, India plans to continue purchasing Russian oil, citing long-term contracts [3] - India's government is engaged in trade negotiations with the US but remains firm on key agricultural interests, particularly against dairy imports [2][3] - Upcoming meetings, such as the IMEC conference, may provide opportunities for dialogue, but success depends on both governments' willingness to set aside differences [4]

Economic Agreement and Investment - The US and South Korea reached an agreement to reduce the previously set 25% tariffs to 15%, which South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol described as a move to "eliminate export uncertainty" [3] - South Korea is committed to investing $350 billion in the US, with $150 billion earmarked for the "Muskegon" shipbuilding project and the remaining $200 billion directed towards semiconductor and new energy battery sectors [5] - The reduction in tariffs may lower export costs, but the agreement includes US demands for opening South Korea's agricultural market, which could complicate future trade negotiations [7] Domestic Reactions and Criticism - The largest opposition party, the People Power Party, criticized the agreement, claiming it causes losses for South Korea amid investment concessions [8] - Experts noted that as a country with a free trade agreement, South Korea should have enjoyed lower tariffs, and this deal effectively weakens its negotiating position [8] - A significant portion of the $350 billion investment consists of loans and guarantees, potentially leading to heavy debt burdens for South Korean companies [8] Strategic Military Cooperation - The shipbuilding cooperation project is not merely commercial but has military strategic implications, with South Korea's Hyundai Heavy Industries planning to build "Arleigh Burke" class destroyers for the US Navy [15] - South Korean shipbuilders can reduce construction time to one-third and costs by 50% compared to US shipyards, which strengthens the military supply chain under US leadership [17] - The first US-South Korea foreign ministers' meeting indicated a shift in the role of US troops in South Korea from "deterring North Korea" to "countering China," marking a significant change in the Northeast Asian security landscape [19] Diplomatic Stance and Regional Tensions - South Korea's Foreign Minister emphasized the need for cooperation with the US and Japan to prevent China from disrupting the international order, while also expressing a desire to maintain good relations with China [10][11] - South Korea's provocative actions regarding Taiwan have escalated, with military maneuvers that have drawn warnings from China [11] - The South Korean ambassador to the Philippines stated intentions to uphold the rule of law in the South China Sea, indicating a more assertive diplomatic posture [13] China's Response and Regional Dynamics - China has responded to South Korea's diplomatic moves by emphasizing the importance of independent cooperation and mutual benefits in their relationship [21] - Stricter scrutiny of South Korean semiconductor equipment imports by China is forcing South Korean companies to reassess their investment risks in China [23] - The strategic competition is reshaping the Northeast Asian economic landscape, with South Korea's reliance on the US potentially leading to a loss of strategic autonomy [23] Conclusion on Economic Strategy - While South Korea celebrates a 10% tariff reduction, it risks losing its technological advantages and market share due to increased dependence on the US [24] - China's RCEP framework is strengthening its regional economic ties, reducing reliance on South Korea, particularly in the new energy sector [24]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 【文/观察者网 王一】据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普日前签署行政令，确定了对多个国家和地区征 收的"对等关税"税率，其中对瑞士征收的关税高达39%，冲击该国制表等多个行业。 几天过去了，仍处于举国震惊中的瑞士开始"内部追责"，从瑞士联邦主席凯勒-祖特尔到制药业，他们 想找出到底是谁惹怒了特朗普，导致谈判破裂，让瑞士最终"背上"39%的关税。凯勒-祖特尔被批严重 高估了她与特朗普政府达成协议的可能性，其他批评者则指责是瑞士制药业引发了特朗普的愤怒。 知情人士称，瑞士官员误认为他们与美方的谈判进展顺利，有望达成一项与英国类似、关税为10%的协 议。今年4月，瑞士还宣布将对美投资近1500亿美元，以争取率先达成协议。凯勒-祖特尔7月还自信地 对外公开表示，她成功打通了与特朗普接触的通道。两名消息人士表示，自信满满的瑞士已做好准备接 受10%的税率，联邦政府7月4日还批准以10%的关税为底线进行谈判。 一位前瑞士外交官形容当前瑞士的内讧局面可谓是"刀光剑影"（knives out）。 退休前经常与美国客户打交道的瑞士人卡尔·格施文德（Karl ...

长江期货贵金属周报 非农不及预期，价格具有支撑 2025/8/4 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号:F3085657 投资咨询号:Z0017083 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 数据来源：ifind 长江期货有色产业服务中心 美国非农就业数据不及预期，前两月就业人数下修，9 月降息预期升温，美黄金价格偏强震荡。截至上周五， 美黄金报收3416美元/盎司，周内上涨2.3%，关注上方 压力位3460，下方支撑位3360。 1610 1810 2010 2210 2410 2610 2810 3010 3210 3410 3610 2024/01/02 2024/02/02 2024/03/02 2024/04/02 2024/05/02 2024/06/02 2024/07/02 2024/08/02 2024/09/02 2024/10/02 2024/11/02 2024/12/02 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Both stock index and treasury bonds are rated as "Oscillating" [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is rated as "Temporarily on the sidelines", iron ore as "Oscillating", and coking coal and coke as "Oscillating" [1][8][10] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is rated as "Range trading or on the sidelines", aluminum as "Buy on dips after a pullback", nickel as "Short on rallies or on the sidelines", tin as "Range trading", gold as "Range trading", and silver as "Range trading" [1][12][14][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are rated as "Oscillating"; polyolefin as "Wide - range oscillating"; soda ash's 09 contract as "Maintain short position" [1][23][25][28][33][34][36] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are rated as "Oscillating adjustment", apple and jujube as "Oscillating weakly" [1][38][39] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Live pigs are rated as "Short on rallies", eggs as "Short on rallies", corn as "Range oscillating", soybean meal as "Limited upside", and oils as "High - level correction risk increasing" [1][40][42][44][46][48] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trading suggestions for various futures products based on market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It also analyzes the influencing factors of each product's price movement, including macro - economic data, policy changes, and industry - specific events [1][6][8][12] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Due to weak US non - farm payroll data, internal strife within the Fed, high domestic margin trading, and the approaching mid - report disclosure period, the stock index is expected to oscillate [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: After a volatile week, the market is tired, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious. After the market shock and repair caused by anti - involution expectations and Politburo Meeting uncertainties end, treasury bonds are expected to oscillate [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price oscillated weakly last Friday. With over - optimistic macro expectations cooling and balanced supply - demand, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [8] - **Iron Ore**: In July, the iron ore market first rose and then fell. With increasing overseas supply and expected decline in iron water demand, it is expected to oscillate strongly and can be used as a long - leg configuration when shorting other black varieties [8][9] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal supply has disturbances, and demand has rigid support. Coke supply has limited increase, and demand is strong. Both are expected to oscillate, and short - term key factors need to be closely monitored [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Due to the Fed's stance divergence, weak US economic data, and domestic industry policies, copper supply has disturbances, but it is in the off - season, and overseas inventory may flow back. Copper is expected to oscillate weakly, with support at 77600 [12] - **Aluminum**: With rising bauxite prices in Guinea and changes in supply and demand of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to buy on dips after a pullback [14] - **Nickel**: In the medium - to - long term, the nickel industry has over - supply, and demand growth is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies, with a reference range of 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton for the main contract [19] - **Tin**: With improving tin ore supply and weak downstream demand, it is recommended for range trading, with a reference range of 250,000 - 272,000 yuan/ton for the 09 contract [20] - **Gold and Silver**: After the weak US non - farm payroll data, the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut has increased. However, considering the Fed's stance and concerns about the US fiscal situation, it is recommended to buy on dips after a pullback [21][22] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high upstream production pressure, uncertain export sustainability, and insufficient fundamental support, it is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the 09 contract focusing on 4950 - 5150 [23][24] - **Caustic Soda**: With high supply, rigid but slow - growing demand, and the influence of macro factors, it is expected to oscillate, with the 09 contract focusing on 2500 - 2600 [25][26] - **Styrene**: With limited fundamental positives and a warming macro - environment, it is expected to oscillate, focusing on 7200 - 7500 [28][29] - **Rubber**: With high raw material costs and inventory changes, rubber is expected to oscillate, with pressure at 15000 [30][32] - **Urea**: With a slight decrease in supply, increasing demand from compound fertilizer enterprises, and stable industrial demand, it is expected to first weaken and then strengthen, with support at 1700 - 1730 and pressure at 1820 - 1850 [33] - **Methanol**: With a slight increase in supply, stable demand from methanol - to - olefins, and weak traditional demand, it is expected to oscillate in the short term [34][35] - **Polyolefin**: Affected by macro factors and cost support, with weak demand in the off - season and slight inventory reduction, it is expected to correct in the short term, with the L2509 contract focusing on 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [35][36] - **Soda Ash**: With increasing supply and weak demand, the 09 contract is recommended to maintain a short position [36][37] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: With an increase in global cotton production and consumption in the new season, and weak downstream consumption, it is expected to oscillate and adjust [38] - **Apple**: With slow apple shipments and normal new - fruit growth, prices are under pressure and are expected to oscillate weakly [38][39] - **Jujube**: With the growth of jujube trees in Xinjiang and changes in the market supply and demand in the sales area, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [39] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: With increasing supply and weak demand, the futures are under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 and 01 contracts and pay attention to the 05 - 03 spread arbitrage [40][42] - **Eggs**: With short - term seasonal factors and long - term supply pressure, it is recommended to short on rallies for the 09 contract and go long on dips for the 12 and 01 contracts [42][44] - **Corn**: With short - term supply - demand games and long - term supply tightening, it is recommended for range trading and to pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread arbitrage [44][45] - **Soybean Meal**: With sufficient supply in the short term and potential supply gaps in the long term, it is recommended to be cautious about going long in the short term and go long on dips in the long term [46][47] - **Oils**: With increasing short - term correction risks and limited correction amplitudes, it is recommended to take profits on existing long positions and pay attention to the soybean - palm oil 09 spread rebound strategy [48][52]

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian Trade Minister stated that trade negotiations with the United States are ongoing, but Ottawa will not yield to tariff pressures [1] Group 1 - The Canadian government is actively engaged in trade discussions with the U.S. [1] - There is a firm stance from Canada against succumbing to tariff-related pressures from the U.S. [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the trade negotiations between China and the United States have not made substantial progress, with the possibility of increasing tariffs on China to triple digits being mentioned by the U.S. negotiation team [1] - China has responded firmly, indicating a willingness to negotiate but also readiness to retaliate if necessary, emphasizing an open-door policy for talks [3] - The U.S. appears to be unwilling to make significant concessions in the negotiations, aiming to maintain its position as a major global economic power [4] Group 2 - On July 30, President Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting August 1, citing India's unfair trade practices as the reason for this punitive measure [6][8] - Trump also announced a new trade agreement with South Korea, which includes a 15% tariff on South Korean goods, with South Korea expected to invest $350 billion in the U.S. [10][11] - The U.S. strategy of applying different tariff levels to neighboring countries like India and South Korea is seen as a way to control these nations and prevent them from distancing themselves from U.S. trade policies [13] Group 3 - The current tariff strategy indicates that the U.S. offers the lowest tariffs to the UK at 10%, followed by the EU, Japan, and South Korea at 15%, while countries like India are at 25% [15] - It is suggested that the reasonable bottom line for U.S.-China negotiations could be around a 20% tariff, which would facilitate smoother discussions if China agrees [15] - The U.S. President's strategic approach reflects a calculated plan to maintain leverage over China while managing relationships with neighboring countries [17]

Group 1 - The U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting August 1, which is seen as a punitive measure by President Trump due to high Indian tariffs and India's purchase of Russian oil and weapons [1][3] - Indian opposition parties are criticizing Prime Minister Modi's foreign policy, arguing that the friendship with Trump has not protected India's national interests, with significant potential damage to trade and local businesses [1][3] - The Indian think tank's founder indicates that the tariffs are part of a pressure strategy, with no products exempt from the new tariffs, suggesting that India is being used as a negative example for other countries [3] Group 2 - Current estimates suggest that India's exports to the U.S. could decline by 30% in the fiscal year ending March 2026, dropping from $86.5 billion to $60.6 billion, with oil products, pharmaceuticals, and electronics being the most affected categories [3] - Ongoing bilateral trade negotiations aim to increase trade to $500 billion by 2030, but significant disagreements remain, particularly in agriculture and dairy sectors, which are politically sensitive in India [4] - The Indian government is reviewing the impact of the new tariffs and is collecting feedback from exporters and industry groups to take necessary measures to protect national interests [4]