1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US PPI in July increased significantly, and the Fed's rate - cut expectations cooled, causing the US dollar index to rebound and global risk appetite to decline. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI in July decreased, and economic growth slowed, but policies may boost consumption, and the extension of the tariff truce period reduced short - term tariff risks, leading to an increase in domestic risk appetite [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends. Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term; bonds may oscillate and correct at a high level; in the commodity sector, black metals may have greater short - term fluctuations, non - ferrous metals may oscillate, energy and chemicals may oscillate weakly, and precious metals may oscillate at a high level [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Finance - **Macro Situation**: US July PPI increased by 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase in three years, indicating potential inflation. Fed officials refuted the expectation of a significant rate cut in September. China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the trade deficit decreased, weakening the contribution of net exports to the economy. Policies such as the personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policy may boost consumption, and the extension of the tariff truce period reduced short - term tariff risks [2]. - **Asset Performance**: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, with a cautious long - position strategy. Bonds may oscillate and correct at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see. In the commodity sector, black metals may have greater short - term fluctuations, non - ferrous metals may oscillate, energy and chemicals may oscillate weakly, and precious metals may oscillate at a high level, all with a cautious approach [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - **Market Movement**: The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as armament restructuring, rail transit equipment, and components. The economic growth in July slowed, but policies may boost consumption, and the extension of the tariff truce period increased domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations, with an enhanced short - term upward macro - drive [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term cautious long - position, but beware of high - level correction risks [4]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Steel**: The decline of steel futures and spot prices widened on Thursday, with reduced trading volume. Real - world demand weakened, inventory increased by 400,000 tons week - on - week, and apparent consumption decreased. Supply of rebar was relatively low, and plate production was stable. There were rumors of production control in Cangzhou. Iron - water production may further decline. It is advisable to view the steel market as oscillating weakly in the short term [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The decline of iron ore futures and spot prices widened on Thursday. With an approaching important event, iron - water production may decline. Global iron ore shipments decreased by 151,000 tons week - on - week, and arrivals decreased by 1.259 million tons. Port inventory was accumulating, and supply pressure increased. Iron ore prices may weaken periodically [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, but the futures prices declined significantly. Manganese ore prices slightly increased, and there was an expectation of new silicon - manganese production capacity. Some silicon - iron enterprises had profits and high production enthusiasm. The downstream was waiting for steel mill pricing and had a strong willingness to replenish inventory. Iron - alloy prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6]. - **Soda Ash**: On Thursday, the main soda - ash contract oscillated. Supply increased week - on - week, and the pattern of oversupply remained unchanged, with new device launches expected in the fourth quarter. Demand support was weak, and profit decreased week - on - week. Soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, with limited upward price space [7]. - **Glass**: On Thursday, the main glass contract oscillated. Glass daily melting volume remained stable week - on - week, and there were expectations of production cuts due to anti - involution policies. Terminal real - estate demand was weak but slightly improved. Glass profit decreased week - on - week. Glass prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US economy is slowing, and the risk of recession exists. Copper - mine production growth is higher than expected, and domestic demand will weaken marginally. The strong copper - price trend may not last [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, the aluminum closing price declined slightly. Aluminum's fundamentals weakened, with domestic social inventory increasing by nearly 140,000 tons and LME inventory increasing by 137,000 tons from the low in mid - June. The medium - term upward space is limited, and short - term attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average [10][11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost of recycled aluminum plants has increased, leading to losses and production cuts. It is in the demand off - season, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but with limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 0.41% to 59.64%. The supply of tin ore is expected to ease. Terminal demand is weak, and inventory decreased by 90 tons to 10,235 tons. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space due to risks and weak demand [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Thursday, lithium carbonate oscillated sharply. The main 2511 contract increased by 0.28%. The supply of the Jiangxi Ningde Times Jiaxiawo Mine stopped, causing a short - term supply shortage. The subsequent uncertainty lies in whether the remaining mines can complete the ore - type change by September 30 [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the main 2511 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 1.14%. Pay attention to the impact of coking coal and polysilicon sentiment and the cash - flow cost support [13]. - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the main 2511 contract of polysilicon decreased by 3.08%. The number of warehouse receipts increased, reflecting stronger hedging and delivery intentions. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and pay attention to the possibility of a weakening market [14]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang was weak, and the basis was strong. The inventory in Chinese ports and production enterprises increased. Supply - side maintenance was concentrated, and there were rumors of coking production cuts in Shandong. The supply was expected to decrease, and demand was boosted by the restart of inland olefin plants. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, but there were regional differences. The price is expected to oscillate [15][16]. - **PP**: The spot market of PP oscillated and declined. The inventory of two major petrochemical companies decreased. Crude - oil prices decreased, improving PP cost - profit, and new production capacity was planned to be launched in mid - to - late August. Demand was in the off - season, and industrial inventory increased. The 09 contract price may have limited fluctuations, and the 01 contract is currently considered weak. Pay attention to oil - price fluctuations [16]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE was slightly adjusted. The weekly production increased by 0.14% and is expected to decrease by 3.49% next week. Demand showed signs of improvement. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - term weak. Pay attention to demand and inventory replenishment [17]. 3.6 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November soybean contract on the CBOT closed at 1031, down 13.25 or 1.27%. The net export sales of the current - market - year US soybeans decreased by 377,600 tons in the week ending August 7, while the next - market - year net export sales increased by 1.133 million tons [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: After the preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed dumping, rapeseed meal drove up the premium sentiment of soybean meal. The export price of Brazilian soybeans increased. The short - term cost drove up soybean meal prices, but the domestic inventory was accumulating, and the downstream demand was weak. If China imports US soybeans and Canadian rapeseed meal, the premium will decline [18][19]. - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed - oil port inventory was high and difficult to deplete, and the supply was expected to shrink. The cost of soybean oil was stable, and the supply - demand situation would improve in the fourth quarter. Palm - oil inventory in Malaysia was accumulating, and export demand was expected to improve. Indonesian and Indian inventories were low. Domestic rapeseed oil was affected by policy news. The overall valuation of oils and fats was slightly high. Pay attention to the supplementary increase of soybean oil and consider the strategy of buying soybean oil and shorting palm oil [19]. - **Corn**: The price of Northeast corn was weak, and market transactions were inactive. Enterprises in North China planned to reduce inventory. Corn will be listed in Anhui and Xinjiang in late August, and the supply is expected to be sufficient. The corn futures market was weak [20]. - **Pigs**: The current spot price in the benchmark area is stable at 13.5 - 13.8 yuan/kg. Large - scale pig farms have almost completed weight - reduction, and the entry of secondary fattening has increased. With the cooling weather, demand is expected to improve, and pig prices may rebound [20].

Group 1: Trade Impact on Indian Apparel Industry - The U.S. market accounts for approximately one-third of India's apparel exports, making it a critical market for the industry [1][3] - The additional 25% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Indian products, combined with the existing tariffs, raises the total tariff rate to 50%, significantly impacting competitiveness [1][3] - The Indian apparel sector could see a decline in exports by $2.5 billion to $3 billion due to these tariffs, as buyers may prefer cheaper alternatives from countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam [3] Group 2: Negotiation Stalemate - Trade negotiations between India and the U.S. have stalled, primarily due to India's reluctance to make concessions on agricultural and dairy markets, which are vital for its political base [5] - The U.S. has expressed dissatisfaction with India's trade practices, particularly regarding the import of Russian oil and agricultural products [5] - Despite the challenges, India has made some concessions, including tariff exemptions on industrial goods and allowing certain foreign companies to operate in India [5] Group 3: Broader Economic Context - While the apparel sector faces increased tariffs, other sectors like electronics and pharmaceuticals continue to enjoy tariff exemptions, indicating a selective approach to trade policy [4] - The Indian government is under pressure to support small and medium-sized apparel enterprises affected by the tariffs, with calls for direct financial assistance to mitigate the impact [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Japan, South Korea, and the EU have reached agreements with the US to accept a 15% tariff on their exports, which is higher than the 10% baseline rate enjoyed by other countries like Russia and Australia [1][3] - The agreements are seen as a response to historical trade imbalances, particularly in the automotive sector, where these economies are major exporters to the US [2] - Japan and South Korea's reliance on the US automotive market and internal political issues have limited their ability to negotiate more favorable terms [2][3] Group 2 - The EU has opted for economic cooperation, such as increasing LNG imports, to mitigate the impact of US tariffs while avoiding direct confrontation [2] - Japan and South Korea have committed to significant investments (Japan $550 billion, South Korea $350 billion), but there are concerns about the feasibility and clarity of these commitments [3] - The political dynamics within Japan and South Korea, including leadership instability, have further complicated their negotiation positions [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the extension of the "tariff truce" between the US and China for an additional 90 days, which aims to stabilize trade relations and create a positive atmosphere for further negotiations [1][3][4] - The US will continue to suspend the implementation of a 24% reciprocal tariff for 90 days while retaining the remaining 10% tariff, and China will also suspend its 24% tariff on US goods for the same period [1][4] - Analysts suggest that this extension indicates a phase of easing in US-China economic relations and provides more time to address unresolved issues [1][3][4] Group 2 - The recent negotiations have led to a clearer understanding of each country's demands and bottom lines, which is beneficial for controlling conflicts [4] - The extension of the tariff truce allows for continued imports of key products like electronics, clothing, and toys into the US at relatively lower tariffs, especially ahead of the critical holiday season [4][5] - Both sides are signaling a desire to reduce trade tensions, with China suspending measures against certain US entities and the US considering easing some export restrictions [5][6] Group 3 - Future negotiations are expected to focus on the core issue of tariffs, including discussions on how to achieve full or partial reductions of the suspended 24% tariffs [7] - Key sectors such as steel, aluminum, automotive, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals are likely to be focal points in the upcoming talks [7] - The US may seek increased Chinese investment and procurement, while China will push for the removal of unreasonable investment and technology restrictions imposed by the US [7][8] Group 4 - Despite the "tariff truce," trade flows between the US and China have been negatively impacted, with US imports from China dropping by approximately 15% to $165 billion in the first half of the year, and US exports to China decreasing by about 20% [7][8] - China is actively diversifying its markets and optimizing its foreign trade structure to mitigate external uncertainties, which may help maintain export stability [8]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, suggests that the Federal Reserve should consider a larger rate cut of 50 basis points in the upcoming decision, following the previous decision to maintain rates [1] - Revised data shows that employment growth in May and June was significantly lower than previously reported, indicating that the Fed could have started cutting rates earlier if this data had been available [1] - The latest inflation report indicates a 0.2% month-over-month increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, with core CPI rising 0.3%, aligning with economists' expectations [1] Group 2 - Becerra notes an unexpected rise in service sector inflation, contrasting with earlier expectations of goods price inflation [2] - He expresses anticipation for the timely confirmation of Trump's nominee for the Federal Reserve Board, Milan, who is expected to participate in the upcoming policy meeting [2] - Becerra emphasizes that Milan will be an important voice in changing the composition of the Federal Reserve [3] Group 3 - Becerra discusses the broad selection criteria for candidates to succeed Powell as Fed Chair, focusing on their views on monetary policy, regulatory policy, and management capabilities [3] - He criticizes the high costs associated with the renovation of the Federal Reserve's headquarters, which amounts to $2.5 billion, and highlights his personal funding of renovations for the Treasury Department [3] - Becerra expresses optimism regarding ongoing trade negotiations, stating that substantial agreements with major countries are expected in the coming months [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in industrial products, highlighting the recent changes in CPI and PPI, and the impact of supply chain issues on key commodities like lithium carbonate and rubber [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [1][5]. - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [1][5]. Group 2: Key Commodities Lithium Carbonate - Supply disruptions due to mining permit delays and temporary shutdowns at major mines are expected to cause significant volatility in lithium carbonate prices [2][19]. - Chile's lithium salt exports are projected to reach 28,800 tons LCE by July 2025, a 40% increase month-on-month and a 22% increase year-on-year, with lithium carbonate exports accounting for 73% of this total [2][19]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for the first time since late May, but still stands at approximately 142,000 tons [2][19]. Rubber - Improved weather conditions in production areas have put downward pressure on raw rubber prices, with demand remaining weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][14]. - The market is closely monitoring the progress of US-China trade negotiations, as this could impact rubber prices [2][14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing a stable trading environment, with minor fluctuations in trading volumes and prices [3][20]. - The supply of coking coal has decreased slightly, while iron water production remains stable, indicating limited fundamental contradictions in the market [3][20]. Group 3: Industry News - The top 100 real estate companies in China have invested a total of 578.3 billion yuan in land acquisition from January to July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [6]. - The article suggests that the investment confidence among these companies has been effectively restored, with ongoing government support for real estate policies [6]. Group 4: External Market Performance - The article provides a summary of external market performance, including the S&P 500 and other indices, indicating a mixed performance in global markets [8]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while oil prices experienced a minor decline, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and market adjustments [8][11]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The article notes that soybean meal prices are under pressure due to concerns over supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [21]. Oilseeds - Oilseed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with palm oil facing limited pressure due to low inventory levels in Indonesia, despite a recovery in production [22]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The article highlights the recent performance of the European shipping index, which has shown a slight increase, but overall rates are expected to decline as the market adjusts to seasonal trends [23].

这一表态是在美国总统特朗普大范围的新关税政策生效后作出的，给仍在寻求更有利条款的贸易伙伴带 来了更大的紧迫性。包括加拿大、墨西哥和瑞士在内的一些主要贸易伙伴仍在寻求与美国达成更有利的 条款。 值得注意的是，作为财政部长，贝森特在特朗普第二任期内的政策影响力正日益凸显。 美国财长贝森特为悬而未决的贸易谈判设定了新的时间表。 据媒体8月11日报道，美国财政部长贝森特上周四在接受媒体采访时表示，预计到10月底前将基本完成 与尚未达成贸易协议国家的谈判。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月8日，白宫官员证实，比利·朗将在上任不到两个月后卸任美国国税局局 长一职，贝森特将暂代国税局局长。报道指出，此次人事变动正值特朗普政府的新关税政策生效仅数 日，且距离包含大规模减税和支出计划的新法案签署刚满一个月。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

Group 1 - Recent trade negotiations between India and the US have stalled due to disagreements over tariffs and non-tariff barriers, with the US imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, raising the total tariff rate to 50% [1][7] - The Indian government has expressed that the US's actions are "unfair, unjust, and unreasonable," and has indicated it will take necessary actions to protect national interests [1] - In response to the high tariffs, India has decided to suspend its plans to purchase US military equipment, including "Striker" armored vehicles and "Javelin" anti-tank missiles [2][5] Group 2 - The US had a trade deficit of approximately $45 billion with India last year, importing $87 billion worth of goods from India while exporting $42 billion worth of goods to India [7] - Indian Prime Minister Modi emphasized the importance of supporting local manufacturing, stating that India must remain vigilant regarding its economic interests [7] - Indian businesses in the US are struggling due to the increased tariffs, with reports of significant declines in sales and profitability, particularly in the jewelry and grocery sectors [8][10] Group 3 - Modi held a phone conversation with Russian President Putin, reaffirming India's commitment to deepening strategic ties and inviting Putin to visit India later this year [11] - Discussions between India and Russia included cooperation in various sectors such as rare earth mining, industrial infrastructure, and aerospace technology [12] - Modi is expected to visit China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, which may influence India's diplomatic stance amid rising tensions with the US [14]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decision by the United States to impose a 15% tariff on certain Jordanian exports, which previously enjoyed zero tariffs, significantly impacts the garment industry, particularly knitwear. The food industry, with its local resource base and growth potential, should be prioritized for future development [1] Group 1: Impact on Industries - The garment industry is the most affected sector due to the new 15% tariff on exports to the U.S. [1] - The food industry is highlighted as having local resource advantages and growth potential, suggesting a shift in focus for future investments [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - Jordan primarily imports cars, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals from the U.S. [1] - Future U.S.-Jordan trade negotiations are expected to cover various aspects of imports, which may lead to a decrease in the prices of American cars in the Jordanian market [1]

美国的贸易伙伴正游说白宫，希望获得大范围新关税的豁免。这些新关税于周四生效，但各国都在设法 减轻特朗普重塑全球贸易的举措对本国经济的冲击。 这场外交行动表明，尽管白宫近一个月来高调宣布了一系列协议，但已持续数月的贸易谈判远未结束。 欧盟、日本和韩国等已与特朗普达成协议，但其谈判代表仍在幕后与美国官员沟通，为重要出口行业争 取更多减免。目前已有数十项豁免和例外条款获批，涉及巴西橙汁和智利铜矿等产品。 与此同时，谈判代表们正努力厘清美国的关税计划。在迄今达成的多项协议中，许多关键细节尚未敲 定，有时双方的解读甚至存在差异。 特朗普在社交媒体上谈及午夜生效的对等关税时表示，"数十亿美元的关税正流入美国"。 他周三称，进口半导体的关税将设定在100%左右，但对苹果等在美国投资制造业的公司豁免。此前承 诺对药品等其他敏感行业加征的新关税尚未正式宣布。 这种混乱局面以及特朗普为追求各种政治目标而随意调整关税的倾向，意味着美国庞大国内市场的准入 不确定性正成为新经济秩序的一大特征，对企业投资、招聘和价格产生连锁影响。周三，特朗普称，为 了惩罚印度购买俄罗斯石油，将对印度进口商品额外加征25%的关税，叠加已有的25%关税。 ...