Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the US dollar index reflect a lack of clear direction amid changing interest rate expectations, with a significant increase in the probability of a rate cut by September from 35% to 91% [1][3] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Investor uncertainty regarding the macroeconomic fundamentals is evident, as weak US employment data has strengthened expectations for monetary easing, yet the Federal Reserve has not signaled a clear dovish stance [3] - The dollar is currently in a consolidation phase, with resistance around 99.20 and support at 98.50, indicating that investors are awaiting clearer signals, likely from upcoming CPI data [3][4] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Policy Implications - The nomination of key positions by Trump has raised concerns about the independence of policymakers, potentially affecting the transparency and forward guidance of monetary policy, which in turn impacts the dollar's value [3][4] - Future movements of the dollar will heavily depend on the Federal Reserve's stance; if inflation and unemployment data continue to weaken, a series of rate cuts may be initiated, breaking the current consolidation phase [4] Group 3: Currency Comparisons and Market Behavior - Despite the dollar's rise against the yen and slight weakening against the Swiss franc, the euro remains strong against the dollar, indicating a cautious market sentiment with funds opting for a wait-and-see approach rather than making significant bets [4] - The current state of the dollar reflects not only economic uncertainties but also a fragile trust in the global monetary system, raising questions about the dollar's role as a safe asset [4]

截至 2025 年 8 月 6 日，国内黄金 9995 价格报 784.4 元 / 克，国际金价突破 3439 美元 / 盎司关口，单日涨幅达 0.13%。实物黄金市场同步活跃，周大福、周生生等品牌金店金价普遍攀升至 1015 元 / 克，较月初累计上涨 6.7%。这一涨势与美联储政策信号密切相关：市场对 9 月降息概率的预期已升至 90%，年内可能出现两次 25 个 基点的降息。花旗集团更将三个月内金价预测上调至 3500 美元 / 盎司，强调 "美国经济放缓与地缘风险共振" 将 推动黄金突破历史高位。 来源：每日新动态周 一、金价突破新高：2025 年 8 月市场现象 五、黄金投资风险控制 从交易数据看，2025 年一季度国内金条及金币消费量同比激增 29.81%，反映投资者对避险资产的强烈偏好。与 此同时，上海期货交易所黄金期货成交额同比增长 143.69%，显示专业投资者正通过杠杆工具捕捉行情。这种结 构性变化源于多重因素：一方面，中东局势因以色列与伊朗代理人战争持续紧张，红海航运风险推升避险溢价； 另一方面，美联储维持利率不变但释放鸽派信号，实际利率下行预期降低了持有黄金的机会成本。值得关注的 是， ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Gold investment rating: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver investment rating: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Group 2: Core Views - The decline of the US non - manufacturing PMI in July, concerns about the Fed's independence, the US economic outlook, and rising expectations of interest rate cuts have weakened the US dollar, causing international gold prices to test the resistance at the high of the operating range in the past three months. Amid the repeated market sentiment due to the continuous verification of the US economy, the idea of buying on dips is maintained in the precious metals' oscillating trend [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Information US Economic Data - The US non - manufacturing PMI in July dropped from 50.8 in June to 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5. The July ISM new orders index decreased from 51.3 in June to 50.3, and export orders shrank for the fourth time in five months [1][2] - The US trade balance in June was -$60.2 billion, the smallest deficit since September 2023 [1] Tariff Information - Trump announced that drug and chip tariffs would be announced in the next week, with drug tariffs reaching up to 250%. Indian tariffs would be significantly increased within 24 hours, and a 35% tariff would be imposed if the EU fails to fulfill its investment obligations to the US [1] Political News - Trump believes that Vance is most likely to be the next presidential candidate, and Secretary of State Rubio would be helpful if he works with Vance. A new Fed chairman may be announced soon, with four candidates, and Bessent hopes to stay in the Treasury [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices due to geopolitical tensions, changes in the Federal Reserve's personnel, and inflationary pressures from tariffs, with gold reaching a peak of $3444 per ounce before settling at $3435 per ounce [1][3] - Short-term demand for gold is expected to remain strong, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts and safe-haven buying, with a potential breakthrough of the recent high of $3390 per ounce [3] - Long-term uncertainties in the global economy and geopolitical risks are anticipated to continue supporting gold prices, with key factors including U.S. inflation data, trade negotiations, and Federal Reserve appointments [3] Group 2 - Silver prices have also surged, reaching a peak of $39 per ounce, driven by both the rising gold prices and increased demand in sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [3] - The investment landscape for precious metals suggests that while silver and platinum have long-term investment value, short-term trading risks are heightened due to their volatility [3] - Investors are advised to consider the unique characteristics of silver, which has greater price fluctuations compared to gold, and to be cautious of liquidity risks associated with platinum investments [4]

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching a near two-week high, driven by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [1][3] - The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for July unexpectedly declined to 50.1, below the expected 51.5, indicating a slowdown in the service sector [3] - The market anticipates a 91% chance of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September due to weak employment data [3][7] Group 2 - Trump's recent announcement of new tariffs on several countries, particularly a 25% tariff on Indian goods, has heightened trade tensions [4] - The breakdown of ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas could escalate geopolitical risks, potentially impacting gold prices due to increased risk premiums [6] - The unexpected resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Kugler raises concerns about the credibility of U.S. economic data and policy independence [7] Group 3 - OPEC+ plans to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, raising concerns about oversupply amid uncertain demand recovery [9] - The American Petroleum Institute reported a significant decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories, which may provide short-term support for oil prices [10] - The market remains sensitive to geopolitical developments and U.S. trade policies, which could further influence oil price dynamics [10]

中泰国际发布研报称，短期来看，叠加美元指数反弹及港股估值修复到位，大盘面临一定的技术性回调 压力。然而，港股整体上行趋势未改，活跃的交投、持续的港股通资金流入以及处于低位的沽空比例， 均表明市场情绪依然偏暖。国内政策托底、企业盈利改善趋势延续以及积极资金流向形成共振，港股中 期仍有望在基本面和政策面支撑下延续渐进式上行。技术层面，恒生指数短期在24,500点附近预计有一 定支撑。 美债：美国7月非农超预期疲弱，叠加7月ISM制造业指数和密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值均不及预 期，重燃市场对经济衰退的担忧，十年期美债收益率快速下行至4.24%附近。短期收益率或现技术性反 弹修正，但中期核心矛盾已转向：一是关税落地后通胀实际黏性高度(尽管贸易协议部分缓解压力，效 果待验)；二是美联储独立性受挑战——鹰派理事突离职、劳工统计高官遭解职，叠加特朗普施压，鲍 威尔维持鹰派难度加大。 海外市场方面，美股进入8-9月的季节性淡季，适逢7月ISM PMI下跌以及疲弱的非农数据均给予获利了 结甚至做空的机会。标普500指数及纳指于上周四实现单口转向，上周五更显著下跌，标普500指数中线 市宽加速跌至4月底以来新低，显示本轮调整正 ...

另外，美元指数日图及周图多头动力未能增强，而限制了金价的回落力度，月图来看，也仍处于之前2 年多的宽幅震荡区间之下，即便是继续反弹，在突破震荡区间之前，对于金价的压力，仍然是调整性 的。所以，金价未来一年左右前景仍然偏向震荡调整或以走强的方向为主。 日内将可关注美国7月全球供应链压力指数，还有晚间美盘后半段2025年FOMC票委、波士顿联储主席 柯林斯就美国和全球经济发表讲话。美联储理事丽莎·库克就美国和全球经济发表讲话。2027年FOMC 票委、旧金山联储主席戴利发表讲话。 今日周三，黄金开盘先行窄幅波动，虽然早盘仍面临一定阻力压制，但也仍运行在中轨等均线上方，多 头表现持稳，短期内，金价有望在避险需求和降息预期的支撑下保持强势，后市则仍有望突破阻力并继 续走强，触及进一步的目标位3458美元附近。 日图；金价自上周如期触及100日均线支撑止跌反弹，并重回60日及中轨等上方，看涨前景增强，目前 虽多头动力减缓，但也仍运行在众多均线上方，ZZ指标也未显示反弹触顶，暗示仍有望继续走强，再 度冲击3顶阻力压制的区域，所以操作上，依然还是看涨为主，即便是回落走低，下方60日或100日均线 支撑也是再度入场看涨的机会 ...

摘要8月6日欧洲交易时段（周二），贵金属承压前行，美元因美债收益率温和回升而上扬。现货黄金续 涨，一度逼近近两周高位3390.32美元/盎司，收于3380.65美元，连涨四日显强势；白银自36.20美元反 弹，受阻于37.40美元。滞胀隐忧重现，降息预期支撑贵金属。 8月6日欧洲交易时段（周二），贵金属承压前行，美元因美债收益率温和回升而上扬。现货黄金续涨， 一度逼近近两周高位3390.32美元/盎司，收于3380.65美元，连涨四日显强势；白银自36.20美元反弹， 受阻于37.40美元。滞胀隐忧重现，降息预期支撑贵金属。 【技术分析】 现货黄金（伦敦金）：尽管有这些利好黄金有利的因素，但黄金涨幅仍然有限。目前金价较3500美元/ 盎司的历史高点低了100多美元。黄金多头受到上周五技术突破的利好。金价超越了3335美元的水平障 碍，并在4小时图上的100期简单移动均线上方显示出持续的强势。如果金价跌至3,366-3,365美元支撑 位，则可能出现买入机会，而进一步下行可能在3,350-3,349美元附近受到限制。反之，直接阻力似乎是 周一的高点约3,385美元，随后是3,400美元的重要关口。受持续买盘的推 ...

Group 1 - The recent poor performance of the US non-farm payroll data has increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, leading to a decline in the US dollar and bond yields, which supports the rise in gold prices [1][3] - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, initially rising to $3382 before retreating to a low of $3349, and then rebounding to a high of $3390, indicating a stabilization and upward trend after testing the daily Bollinger band middle track [3] - The downward revision of employment data for June and May by 285,000, resulting in only 19,000 and 14,000 new jobs added respectively, suggests that the US labor market is not as robust as the Federal Reserve perceives, further fueling expectations for a rate cut [3] Group 2 - President Trump's comments regarding a potential announcement of a new Federal Reserve chair and upcoming tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors have bolstered safe-haven buying in gold, contributing to its price increase [3] - The technical analysis indicates that the support levels for gold are at $3362 and $3345, while resistance levels are at $3385 and $3400, reflecting the market's current trading range [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of gold ETFs indicates a positive trend, driven by various economic factors and market dynamics, suggesting potential for further price increases in gold [3][4]. Group 1: Gold ETF Performance - As of August 6, 2025, the gold ETF (159937) has risen by 0.17%, marking a four-day consecutive increase, with the latest price at 7.46 yuan [3]. - Over the past week, the gold ETF has accumulated a 1.29% increase [3]. - The trading volume for the gold ETF reached 1.14 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.39% [3]. - The average daily trading volume over the past week was 12.11 billion yuan, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs in July, falling short of the expected 110,000, with downward revisions totaling 258,000 for May and June [4]. - The resignation of a key Federal Reserve official, coupled with political actions regarding employment data, is expected to influence market perceptions of the Fed's independence and support gold prices [4]. - Recent data indicates a significant drop in the U.S. job market, which has heightened expectations for a rate cut in September [4]. Group 3: Fund Inflows and Performance Metrics - The gold ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past three days, totaling 526 million yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 421 million yuan [4]. - The latest financing buy-in for the gold ETF reached 20.82 million yuan, with a financing balance of 3.612 billion yuan [4]. - Over the past five years, the gold ETF's net value has increased by 72.48%, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [4]. Group 4: Risk and Fee Structure - The gold ETF has a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [5]. - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past year is reported at 2.39, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [5]. - The tracking error for the gold ETF over the past month is 0.002%, reflecting high tracking precision compared to similar funds [5].