Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a holding of 1,042.06 tons of gold as of November 10, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot gold price rebounded strongly, surpassing $4,100 per ounce, closing at $4,115.71, a significant increase of $114.44 or 2.86% [5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The gold price experienced a strong upward trend, breaking the $4,100 mark due to a weaker US dollar and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which boosted the gold market [5]. - The market sentiment shifted positively as the US Senate passed a temporary funding bill, alleviating concerns over a government shutdown, which reduced demand for the dollar and supported precious metals [5]. - Weak private sector employment data and a low University of Michigan consumer confidence index heightened concerns about the US economy, leading traders to increase bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, with a 65% probability of a rate cut expected in December [5][6]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Analysts noted that the gold market remains bullish, especially after breaking the $4,100 resistance level. The daily chart shows the relative strength index trending higher, indicating accumulating bullish momentum [6]. - Gold prices are holding above key moving averages, reinforcing a positive outlook. The 4-hour chart indicates that prices are above the 20, 100, and 200-period moving averages, suggesting increased buying pressure [6]. Group 3: Future Price Targets - If gold prices continue to rise, the next target will be above the October 22 high of $4,160, potentially reaching the psychological level of $4,200, with further targets at the upper Bollinger Band of $4,325 and the historical high of $4,380 acting as major resistance [7]. - On the downside, the $4,000 level remains critical; a drop below this could lead to a retreat to the lower Bollinger Band at $3,835, followed by the 100-day moving average at $3,705 [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report [1] Core Viewpoints - The expected cash outflow from the US Treasury General Account, the increased probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December, the provision of liquidity by the Fed through the Standing Repurchase Facility (SRP), geopolitical risks, and the continuous gold - buying by global central banks may support precious metal prices [1] Summary by Relevant Contents Precious Metal Market Data - **Futures and Spot Data**: For gold, on 2025 - 11 - 11, the Shanghai gold futures closing price was 933.02 yuan/gram, and the trading volume was 51,204. The spot Shanghai gold T + D closing price was 917.64 yuan/gram, and the trading volume was 37,088. For silver, the Shanghai silver futures closing price was 11,719 yuan/ten - gram, and the trading volume was 1,015,910. The spot Shanghai silver T + D closing price was 11,480 yuan/ten - gram, and the trading volume was 619,304. In the international market, the COMEX gold futures closing price was 4,013.40 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume was 242,570. The London gold spot price was 4,090.25 dollars/ounce. The COMEX silver futures closing price was 48.23 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume was 16,720. The London silver spot price was 50.04 dollars/ounce [1] - **Inventory and Position Data**: Gold inventory in Shanghai was 89,616 (in ten - grams), and the position of the Shanghai gold T + D was 254,730. The inventory of COMEX gold was 37,729,455.44 (in troy ounces), and the position was 300,451. Silver inventory in Shanghai was 609,978 (in ten - grams), and the position of the Shanghai silver T + D was 4,236,766. The inventory of COMEX silver was 479,104,695.08 (in troy ounces), and the position was 96,354 [1] - **Price Difference and Basis Data**: The spread between near - month and far - month gold futures was 1.10, and the basis (spot - futures) was 0.10. For silver, the spread between near - month and far - month futures was 31.00, and the basis was 11.00. In the international market, the spread between near - month and far - month gold futures was - 15.20, and the basis was - 33.15. The spread between near - month and far - month silver futures was - 0.73, and the basis was 0.71 [1] Important Information - The US government shutdown may continue for several more days. After the Senate passed a procedural vote on the temporary appropriation bill, the House's voting time is undetermined. Trump - appointed Fed governor Milan believes that the government shutdown will not affect his view of the US economy and advocates a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [1] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to mainly lay out long positions when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,580 - 3,860 and the resistance level around 4,180 - 4,384. For Shanghai gold, the support level is around 830 - 860, and the resistance level is around 950 - 1,000. For London silver, the support level is around 39 - 42, and the resistance level is around 50 - 55. For Shanghai silver, the support level is around 9,400 - 10,000, and the resistance level is around 11,600 - 12,400 [1]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 2.25%, with notable gains in Chinese concept stocks such as XPeng Motors up 16.15%, Huazhu Hotels up 8.62%, JinkoSolar up 5.18%, and Baidu up 5.05% [1] - European stock markets saw all major indices close higher, with the UK market up 1.08%, France up 1.32%, and Germany up 1.65% [3] Group 2: Commodity Prices - International gold prices increased by 2.8%, reaching a two-week high of $4,122.0 per ounce, driven by rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and a decline in the US dollar index [2] - International oil prices experienced a slight increase, with light crude oil futures for December closing at $60.13 per barrel, up 0.64%, and Brent crude for January at $64.06 per barrel, up 0.68% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by weak U.S. economic data and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, making gold an attractive non-yielding asset for investors [1][3]. Economic Data Impact - A series of disappointing economic indicators from the U.S. has shattered market optimism about economic strength, particularly a significant drop in October job numbers and a decline in consumer confidence [3]. - The market now assigns a 64% probability to a rate cut in December, increasing to approximately 77% by January [3]. Federal Reserve Divergence - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve regarding the approach to further rate cuts, with some members advocating caution due to inflation concerns, while others support aggressive cuts [4][5][6]. - This internal debate adds uncertainty to the gold market, but the prevailing low-rate expectations are likely to support gold prices [6]. Government Shutdown and Market Sentiment - The prolonged U.S. government shutdown has created significant economic strain, but recent legislative progress suggests a potential resolution, which has improved market risk appetite [7]. - Despite this positive sentiment, gold prices continue to rise due to lingering economic damage and persistent rate cut expectations [7]. External Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Gold prices are also influenced by external factors such as tariffs and global trade uncertainties, with a notable decline in U.S. imports from China [8]. - The flattening of the U.S. yield curve and rising short-term rates reflect investor concerns about inflation, further boosting gold's appeal as a safe haven [8]. Future Outlook - The outlook for gold remains optimistic, with predictions suggesting prices could range between $4,200 and $4,300 by year-end, and potentially reach $5,000 in Q1 of the following year [9]. - Continued low interest rates, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical trade tensions are expected to drive gold's performance [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The price of precious metals is expected to continue rising in the medium and long term due to central bank gold purchases and increasing investment demand. In the short term, precious metals have strengthened. For London gold, the resistance level is at 4150, and the support level is between 4000 - 4050. For silver, the support level is between 49.5 - 50, and the resistance level is at 52.5 [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, precious metal prices rose strongly. The potential end of the US government shutdown alleviated the current shortage of market liquidity and supported the Fed's December interest rate cut expectation. COMEX Gold 2512 contract closed at $4123.4 per ounce, up 2.83%; US Silver 2512 contract closed at $50.405 per ounce, up 4.7%. SHFE Gold 2512 main contract closed at 935.98 yuan per gram, up 2%; SHFE Silver 2512 contract closed at 11719 yuan per kilogram, up 2.85% [2] Interest Rate Cut Expectation and Fund Holdings - According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged on December 11 is 35.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 64.1%. The long - term SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 1042.06 tons, and iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15088.63 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 14 tons to 610 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 74.9 tons to 830.33 tons in the week ending October 31 [3] This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the US CPI report on Thursday evening. In terms of events, on Wednesday, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak at 22:20; 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will speak on fintech at 23:00; US Treasury Secretary Bessent will speak at 23:45. On Friday, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on monetary policy at 01:15; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hamark will participate in a fireside chat at 01:20; 2025 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid will speak on economic outlook and monetary policy at 23:05. On Saturday, 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan will participate in a fireside chat at 03:30 [4] Precious Metal Spot and Futures Price Table - SHFE Gold Main Continuous contract is at 935.98 yuan per gram, up 1.6%; SGX Gold TD is at 933.02 yuan per gram, up 1.68%. CME Gold Main contract is at $4123.4 per ounce, up 2.88%. SHFE Silver Main Continuous contract is at 11719 yuan per kilogram, up 2.05%; SGX Silver TD is at 11726 yuan per kilogram, up 2.14%; CME Silver Main contract is at $50.405 per ounce, up 4.52%. SHFE - TD Gold is at 2.96 yuan per gram, down 18.23%; SHFE - TD Silver is at - 7 yuan per kilogram, down 33.33%. CME Gold - Silver Ratio is at 81.8054, down 1.57% [6][7] Inventory and Position Table - SHFE Gold inventory is 89616 kilograms, unchanged; CME Gold inventory is 1173.5181 tons, unchanged; SHFE Gold position is 136657 lots, down 3 lots. SPDR Gold position is 1042.06 tons, unchanged. SHFE Silver inventory is 609.978 tons, down 2.1%; CME Silver inventory is 14901.8329 tons, down 0.21%; SGX Silver inventory is 830.31 tons, down 8.28%; SHFE Silver position is 243217 lots, down 0.94%. SLV Silver position is 15088.632696 tons, unchanged [16] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The US Dollar Index is at 99.6233, up 0.08%; the US Dollar against the Chinese Yuan is at 7.1232, up 0.03%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 47368.63 points, up 0.81%. WTI crude oil spot is at $59.75 per barrel, up 0.54%. LmeS Copper 03 is at $10874.5 per ton, up 1.68%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is at 4.13%, up 0.49%; the 10 - year US real interest rate is at 1.84%, up 0.55%; the 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread is at 0.56%, up 3.7% [22]

黄金期货价格的上涨与美国政府停摆问题的进展密切相关。市场预期，随着美国政府停摆的结束，政府 数据将恢复正常发布进度，而这对于美联储的政策决策具有重要意义，可能会使美联储在12月进一步降 息成为可能。一德期货表示，2027年票委、旧金山联储主席戴利对进一步降息持开放态度，而2025年票 委、圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆则认为进一步宽松的空间有限。值得注意的是，美国参议院通过为政府 提供资金至明年1月的临时拨款法案，这一动作被市场解读为僵局打破的重要信号。市场普遍预期政府 重新开门后将释放被冻结的TGA账户，这种流动性释放的预期极大地鼓舞了市场情绪，推动了黄金期 货价格的上扬。 今日周二（11月11日）亚盘时段，黄金期货的市场表现备受瞩目。黄金期货目前交投于950附近，截至 发稿，黄金期货暂950.44元/克，涨幅2.78%，最高触及951.98元/克，最低下探936.20元/克。目前来看， 黄金期货短线偏向看涨走势。综合市场分析认为，此次价格上行主要受到多重因素共同推动：美国政府 停摆危机出现缓解迹象，美联储降息预期再度升温，加之全球央行购金持续提供长期支撑。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 美国政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The short-term fluctuations in gold prices do not alter the long-term bullish outlook, with ongoing economic uncertainties and geopolitical conflicts supporting gold as a favorable asset for investment [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Domestic spot gold (Au9999) increased by 1.62% to 949.99 CNY per gram, while international spot gold in London rose by 0.50% to 4140.70 USD per ounce [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - Federal Reserve Governor Milan advocates for a faster pace of rate cuts, suggesting a 50 basis point reduction, while San Francisco Fed President Daly emphasizes the need for an open discussion on further rate cuts due to potential demand decline in the U.S. economy [2] Group 3: Domestic Gold ETF Growth - The China Gold Association reported that domestic gold ETF holdings increased by 79.015 tons in the first three quarters of the year, marking a 164.03% year-on-year growth, with total holdings reaching 193.749 tons by the end of September, indicating strong institutional demand for gold [3]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a slight decline of 0.04% from November 3 to November 7, ranking low among all primary industries, with mixed performance across sub-sectors [1][2]. Industry Summary Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector's performance was characterized by a 0.04% decline, with energy metals up by 1.43%, industrial metals up by 0.42%, and precious metals down by 2.53% during the same period [1][2]. Copper Market Analysis - Copper prices faced pressure due to cooling macro sentiment, with LME copper closing at $10,695 per ton, down 1.80% week-on-week. Domestic copper prices also fell, with SHFE copper at 85,940 CNY per ton, down 1.23% [3]. - Supply concerns arose from potential closures of smelting facilities in Canada and ongoing disruptions in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Demand showed slight improvement, with a reduction in the discount for spot copper prices [3]. Aluminum Market Analysis - Aluminum prices showed high volatility, with LME aluminum closing at $2,862 per ton, down 0.90%, while SHFE aluminum rose by 1.53% to 21,625 CNY per ton. The theoretical demand for electrolytic aluminum increased, and social inventory rose by 0.13% to 627,100 tons [4]. - Expectations for rising energy prices both domestically and internationally could support aluminum prices in the future [4]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices continued to decline, with COMEX gold at $4,007.80 per ounce, down 0.14%, and SHFE gold at 921.26 CNY per gram, down 0.07%. The macroeconomic environment remains favorable for gold, with expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in December [5]. - The market is currently in a bottoming phase for precious metals, with volatility decreasing significantly after a three-week correction period [5].

Core Viewpoint - Recent economic data from the U.S. has weakened market expectations for a strong economy, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with prices rising significantly [1][2]. Economic Impact - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted 41 days, creating substantial economic pressure and increasing the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 64% probability for December and 77% for January [2]. - Weak economic indicators, including a significant drop in job numbers and a decline in consumer confidence, have reinforced expectations for a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices surged to a two-week high, reaching approximately $4,140, following a 2.85% increase on the previous trading day [1]. - The technical analysis indicates a bullish trend for gold, with expectations for prices to reach between $4,186 and $4,250 in the near term [4]. Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategies include buying on dips around $4,110-$4,115 and selling on rebounds near $4,186-$4,190, with specific stop-loss levels set to manage risk [5].

【11月11日澳大利亚黄金股指数涨至10月22日以来最高】11月11日，澳大利亚黄金股指数涨幅达3.6%， 升至10月22日以来最高水平。当日，现货黄金价格大幅上扬近3%。 美国数据不佳，增强了市场对美联 储降息的预期。行业巨头北方之星资源公司股价涨3.6%，小对手Evolution Mining股价涨3.7%。 包含当 前涨幅，黄金股指数AXGD今年迄今已涨103.1%。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...