2025年的酒店业，挣脱了传统住宿的单一桎梏，驶入了混沌与希望交织的转型深水区。这一年，没有轰 轰烈烈的颠覆性变革，却在供需失衡、资本跨界、技术迭代的多重作用下，涌现出一系列鲜明的矛盾。 文 | 迈点 这些矛盾既是市场承压的直观体现，更是行业自我革新的内在动力——存量竞争与增量探索碰撞，高端 坚守与大众下沉并存，传统运营与数字转型交锋，最终推动酒店业在矛盾中破局，在重构中寻找新的生 长坐标。 2025年的酒店市场格局，似乎正在进入洗牌前夜。地方国资平台凭借充沛现金流与政策资源，以资产整 合、战略控股等方式密集入场，成为行业"压舱石"。 01 国资下场稳盘，大厂跨界破局 重庆文旅集团重组82家市属国企酒店，湖北文旅14.99亿元入主君亭酒店，郑州国资3.28亿元收购富力万 达文华酒店，叠加REITs扩围的政策东风，国资将政企资源与专业运营深度绑定，重塑行业竞争格局。 与此同时，跨界大厂则以技术与流量为利刃，强势打破行业边界。 腾讯成立全资控股的酒店管理公司，华为落地安心酒店创新孵化基地，字节跳动测试"短视频+酒店预 订"模式，阿里、美团、京东持续深化酒旅布局；更有药企康美打造"健康+旅居"场景，舍得酒业植入白 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to experience a higher probability of upward fluctuations after the start of the year, driven by a low funding heat at the end of last year and a market sentiment that is eager for growth [2] - Key sectors for investment include materials, overseas computing power, and semiconductors, with a focus on high-quality real estate developers and industries related to travel services such as duty-free and aviation [2] - Mid-term preferences lean towards sectors with lower heat and concentration but increasing attention and catalysts, such as chemicals, engineering machinery, power equipment, and new energy [2] Group 2 - The spring market is likely to gradually start, with a favorable liquidity environment expected before the Spring Festival, although some volatility may occur in January [3] - Institutional funds, including insurance and private equity, are expected to have strong replenishment motivation, focusing on themes with strong industrial trends or multiple catalysts [3] - The spring market may require verification of economic data to confirm continued acceleration [3] Group 3 - Consumption and growth are anticipated to be the two main lines of the spring market, with a focus on sectors such as electronics, power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and automobiles in January [4] - If the market style leans towards growth, top-rated sectors include electronics, power equipment, communications, non-ferrous metals, automobiles, and defense [4] - In a defensive market style, top-rated sectors include non-bank financials, electronics, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, automobiles, and transportation [4] Group 4 - The mid-term trend remains upward, with a strong consensus on the dual mainline thinking of technology and cycles, focusing on assets in trend [5] - In the technology sector, priority should be given to AI computing power, energy storage, and storage chips, while in the cyclical sector, attention should be on directions that validate price increases [5] - Short-term participation should focus on industrial catalysts, with domestic emphasis on commercial aerospace and software innovation [5] Group 5 - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to remain active and trend upward due to multiple positive factors [6] - The technology sector is seen as a long-term investment mainline, benefiting from price increases and mergers and acquisitions [6] - The consumption sector is expected to benefit from policy support, with current valuations at relatively low levels, indicating significant long-term upside potential [6]

来源：中泰证券 报告摘要 一、A 股： 【市场走势】本周A 股市场表现分化，主要宽基指数涨跌不一。上证指数微涨0.13%，但深证成指、创 业板指和北证50 均有所下跌，其中北证50 跌幅最大，下跌1.55%。 风格指数方面，中盘价值和小盘成长表现较好。行业方面，综合金融、石油石化和国防军工领涨，而商 贸零售、电力及公用事业、食品饮料跌幅居前。成交额方面，本周日均成交额为2.1 万亿，环比上涨 15.16%。 【深入剖析】本周为2025 年最后一个交易周。受节假日资金撤出影响，本周创业板等高弹性板块整体 承压。结构方面，近期商业航天板块不断迎来催化。2025 年12 月31 日，上交所官网信息显示，蓝箭航 天空间科技股份有限公司（蓝箭航天）科创板IPO申请获受理，正式冲刺科创板"商业火箭第一股"。受 各种催化影响，A 股卫星与商业航天板块持续占优。 【预期展望】展望A 股市场，预计在政策利好和产业创新的驱动下，市场结构性机会将持续显现。数字 经济、汽车产业链、AI 应用以及商业航天等新兴科技领域有望获得更多关注。在长线资金不断涌入带 来的流动性支持下，本轮"春季躁动"行情或提前启动。建议投资者关注具备技术创新优 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced narrow fluctuations before the New Year, with most broad indices slightly declining. Looking ahead, the rise of Hong Kong stocks and the A50 index during the New Year period suggests a high probability of a "good start" for A-shares after the holiday. However, the sustainability of the three driving factors behind the recent A-share rally (A500 ETF volume and price increase, strong performance of optical modules, and booming commercial aerospace) remains uncertain post-holiday, necessitating a dual-preparation strategy in the short term. From a mid-term perspective, the market is expected to rise further before March [1][4][10]. Market Overview - The major indices showed slight declines before the New Year, with a narrow range of fluctuations observed [7]. - Sector performance indicated strength in petrochemicals and commercial aerospace, while robotics and soft technology sectors also saw gains [7]. - Market sentiment improved with a rise in trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen, although stock index futures contracts were generally at a discount [7]. - Fund flows showed an increase in margin trading balances, with the securities ETF experiencing the highest net inflow [7]. Market Attribution - The Ministry of Finance announced a continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy for 2026 [9]. - The official release of the 2026 national subsidy plan was noted [9]. - A reduction in the value-added tax rate from 5% to 3% for individuals selling homes purchased for less than two years was implemented [9]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued new regulations on the management of sales expenses for publicly raised securities investment funds [9]. Investment Strategy - Based on the outlook for the Year of the Horse, the recommendation is to maintain current holdings and avoid chasing prices, especially for those that have seen significant gains this year. If a situation similar to the "golden pit" of early 2025 arises, it is advised to increase allocations at lower prices [5][11]. - Sector focus should be on high-tech sectors that have recently undergone sufficient adjustments, such as the Hang Seng Technology and Sci-Tech 50 indices [5][11]. - Industry attention should be directed towards the brokerage sector, which has shown significant lag and market share expansion, as well as robotics-related machinery and automotive sectors, AI application-related media and computing sectors, and sectors benefiting from the Spring Festival retail surge, including electronics and chemicals [5][11]. - Individual stock selection should prioritize low-priced, lagging stocks within the aforementioned sectors and industries [5][11].

A H 股市场周度观察（12 月第 5 周） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 01 月 03 日 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 是结构性切换？》2025-08-10 2、《A H 股市场周度观察（8 月第 1 周）》2025-08-04 内容目录 | A H 股市场周度观察（12月第 5 周） . | | --- | | 一、Ａ股: | | 二、港股： | | 风险捉示 … | 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 - 2 - 3、《7 月政治局会议对市场影响几 何？》2025-08-03 分析师：徐驰 报告摘要 一、A 股： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 分析师：张文宇 【市场走势】本周 A 股市场表现分化，主要宽基指数涨跌不一。上证指数微涨 0.13%， 但深证成指、创业板指和北证 50 均有所下跌，其中北证 50 跌幅最大，下跌 1.55%。 风格指数方面，中盘价值和小盘成长表现较好。行业方面，综合金融、石油石化和国 防军工领涨，而商贸零 ...

Group 1 - ASUS is reportedly exiting the smartphone market and laying off its mobile division staff, although it will continue to provide maintenance and warranty services for existing products [1] - The company confirmed that there are no plans to launch new smartphone models in 2026, following rumors that it would end its mobile business by late 2025 [1] - The smartphone business has been consistently unprofitable, leading to speculation about ASUS's exit from the market, with the Zenfone 10 potentially being the last model in that series [1] Group 2 - ASUS views smartphones as an entry point for AIoT and important terminals for AI applications, with the latest ROG Phone series set to launch in November 2024 and the Zenfone 12 Ultra in February 2025, focusing on AI features, photography, and high-resolution displays [2]

Core Viewpoint - Wallan Technology (6082.HK) has successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking the first IPO of 2026, with its stock price surging 75.82% from the issue price of HKD 19.60 to HKD 34.46 at closing, achieving a market capitalization exceeding HKD 100 billion [1] Group 1: IPO Details - Wallan Technology issued approximately 247,692,800 H-shares, raising a total of HKD 55.83 billion, making it the largest IPO since the implementation of Chapter 18C of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] - The stock's closing price positioned it as the 7th highest in terms of closing gains among 27 new stocks over the past month [1] Group 2: Company Focus and Achievements - Wallan Technology specializes in developing General-Purpose Graphics Processing Unit (GPGPU) chips and intelligent computing solutions, supporting AI applications from cloud to edge [1] - The company is one of the earliest in China to commercialize kilowatt clusters, demonstrating strong stability and fault tolerance in large-scale training with over 30 days of uninterrupted service [1] - Wallan Technology has applied for over 1,600 patents globally, ranking first among Chinese GPGPU companies, with over 600 patents granted and a 100% authorization rate for invention patents [2] - The company is the first and only Chinese GPGPU company invited to speak at the Hot Chips conference and has received the prestigious SAIL award at WAIC 2022 and 2025 [2]

Group 1 - 2026 is expected to be a significant year, marking the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan and various industry milestones, including autonomous driving, liquid cooling, and commercial space travel [1] - The A-share market is characterized by a strong tendency to speculate on concepts, with several industries already experiencing heated speculation in 2025 [1] Group 2 - Predictions for 2026 include the Federal Reserve likely cutting interest rates more than twice, with a projected inflation rate of 2.6% and economic growth at 4.3% [2] - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate to 6.5 due to the weakening of the US dollar, attracting foreign capital into Chinese assets [2] - A rebound in both CPI and PPI is anticipated in the second half of 2026, driven by rising global commodity prices and a potential end to over 40 months of negative PPI growth [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index is projected to reach 4153 points in the first half of 2026, with a focus on emerging industries and low PE cyclical stocks [2] - The A-share market is expected to see a balanced style, with a concentration on new industries and a continuation of the bull market in precious and industrial metals due to the Fed's rate cuts [2] - The upcoming bull market in non-ferrous metals is expected to be significant, driven by both demand from AI-related industries and limited supply growth due to long-term industry stagnation [2]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968 points, up 0.09%, with an annual increase of over 18% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13525 points, down 0.58%, with an annual increase of over 29% [2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3203 points, down 1.23%, with an annual surge of over 49% [2] Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that after several months of sideways movement, the A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend post-New Year [2] - A breakthrough of 4000 points in the Shanghai Index could signal the official start of the "second half of the bull market" [2][15] - High-growth sectors such as robotics, AI applications, and commercial aerospace are anticipated to attract significant capital [2][15] Sector Performance - The defense and military sector saw a notable increase, with a rise of 2.13% [7] - Other sectors such as media, real estate, and non-ferrous metals also performed well, each rising over 1% [7] - Conversely, sectors like communication, agriculture, and electronics experienced declines, with communication down 1.35% [9] Trading Volume and Activity - The market's trading volume decreased to 2.07 trillion yuan, down approximately 958 billion yuan from the previous trading day [4] - Margin trading balances in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose to 2.56 trillion yuan as of December 30 [4] Investment Strategies - Investment strategies are focusing on high-certainty sectors, particularly in technology self-reliance and high-end manufacturing upgrades [17] - The AI sector is expected to see significant developments, with potential upgrades in large models anticipated to catalyze industry growth [16][17] - The strategy of balancing between offensive positions in technology and defensive positions in high-dividend assets is recommended [12][17]

Core Viewpoint - The public fund market in China has reached a significant milestone, surpassing 37 trillion yuan in total assets, driven by strong growth in the ETF market and a continuous upward trend in public fund sizes over the past eight months [2][3][7]. Group 1: Public Fund Market Growth - As of November 2025, the total net asset value of public funds in China reached 37.02 trillion yuan, marking a historic breakthrough [3]. - The public fund market has shown a consistent upward trend, crossing key thresholds of 34 trillion, 35 trillion, and 36 trillion yuan throughout the year [3]. - The dominant segment within the public fund market is the money market fund, which holds 15.19 trillion yuan, followed by bond funds at 10.52 trillion yuan [4][5]. Group 2: ETF Market Expansion - The ETF market has experienced explosive growth, with the number of products reaching 1,391 and total assets surpassing 6 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.98% in product count and 61.66% in total assets [7][8]. - The growth of the ETF market has significantly outpaced the overall public fund market, with an increase of approximately 2.3 trillion yuan in 2025 alone [7]. - Since its inception in 2004, the ETF market has evolved from a nascent stage to a crucial component of the capital market, particularly accelerating since 2020 [7]. Group 3: Future Investment Trends - Looking ahead to 2026, artificial intelligence is anticipated to be a central theme in the market, with expectations of a "structural bull" market in A-shares [9][10]. - Key investment opportunities are expected in sectors such as autonomous driving, AI applications, and non-ferrous metals, while traditional sectors like consumer goods and liquor require close monitoring of policy changes [10][11]. - Analysts suggest that the semiconductor sector remains promising, driven by ongoing demand for AI-related chips and advancements in technology [10][11].