1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall non - farm payroll report is weak, increasing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March next year. The London silver price soared in the early session, and the Shanghai silver main contract broke through the significant threshold of 15,000 yuan per kilogram, hitting a new record high [1] - The growth of employment in the US in November remains weak, and the unemployment rate rises, indicating a continued cooling in the labor market. There are differences within the Fed regarding whether to be more worried about inflation or the employment market, and FOMC officials currently show low willingness to continue cutting interest rates [1] - In the context of easing tariff tensions, the core inflation approaching the target range paves the way for further actions. If subsequent non - farm data is stronger than expected, the Fed's internal stance may turn hawkish [1] - In the short term, considering the market has fully priced in the Fed's interest rate cut, the recent pulse - like rise in silver may increase the risk of short - term corrections, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 979.720 yuan/gram, up 8.3 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 15,512 yuan/kilogram, up 846 yuan [1] - The main contract holding volume of Shanghai gold is 197,105 hands, up 899 hands; that of Shanghai silver is 18,292 hands, up 938 hands [1] - The main contract trading volume of Shanghai gold is 275,889 hands, down 18,015 hands; that of Shanghai silver is 1,627,068 hands, up 55,692 hands [1] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold is 91,722 kilograms, up 420 kilograms; that of Shanghai silver is 911,924 kilograms, up 21,209 kilograms [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 972.71 yuan/gram, up 7.82 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver is 15,190 yuan/kilogram, up 318 yuan [1] 3.3 Basis - The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 7.01 yuan/gram, down 0.48 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 322 yuan/kilogram, down 528 yuan [1] 3.4 Supply and Demand - The SPDR gold ETF holding is 1,051.68 tons, unchanged; the SLV silver ETF holding is 16,018.29 tons, down 42.31 tons [1] - The non - commercial net long position of gold in CFTC (weekly) is 204,588 contracts, down 5,751 contracts; that of silver is 32,188 contracts, down 1,828 contracts [1] - The total quarterly supply of gold is 1,313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 32,056 tons, up 482 tons [1] - The total quarterly demand for gold is 1,257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the total annual demand for silver is 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 98.22, down 0.06; the real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond is 1.92%, down 0.01% [1] - The VIX volatility index is 16.48, down 0.01; the ratio of S&P 500 to gold price is 1.57, down 0.01; the gold - silver ratio is 68.66, up 1.09; the CBOE gold volatility indicator is 20.18, down 1.02 [1] 3.6 Industry News - The US added 64,000 non - farm jobs in November, higher than the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. The non - farm jobs in October decreased significantly by 105,000, far exceeding the expected 25,000 decline, and the figures for August and September were also revised down by 33,000 in total. The average hourly wage in November increased 3.5% year - on - year, the lowest growth rate since May 2021 [1] - The US retail sales in October were flat month - on - month, slightly lower than the expected 0.1% growth, mainly dragged down by a 1.6% decline in auto sales. Core retail sales increased 0.5% month - on - month, slightly exceeding the expected 0.4% growth [1] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in December dropped to 51.8, a 5 - month low. The preliminary value of the service PMI dropped from 54.1 to 52.9, and the preliminary value of the composite PMI dropped to 53, all hitting 6 - month lows [1] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed optimism about the US economic outlook, expecting the full - year GDP growth rate in 2025 to reach 3.5%. Bessent pointed out that Trump will announce the candidate for the Fed Chairman in early January next year [1]

"我认为今年是美国市场例外论终结的起点，这一趋势可能首先在货币市场显现，进入2026年后，还将 延伸至其他风险资产，"坦普尔周二在接受CNBC采访时表示。 坦普尔认为，投资者准备调整美国资产敞口的原因有以下几点。 对美联储的担忧：今年以来，关于美联储公信力的议论日益增多。这家全球最重要的央行正面临美国总 统特朗普要求其大幅降息的压力——这一举措可能引发更多通胀。 对债务的担忧：美国国债今年突破38万亿美元的历史纪录，这加剧了长期以来的担忧——美国的借贷与 支出模式已难以为继。 来源：市场资讯 来源：金十数据 对美国金融市场而言，今年或许标志着一个独特时代开始走向终结。 Lazard首席市场策略师罗恩·坦普尔（Ron Temple）表示，他认为2025年标志着美国金融市场例外论终结 的开端。坦普尔负责该公司的咨询与资产管理业务，他指出，这一判断源于市场对美国宏观经济前景的 普遍担忧，未来几年，这可能促使投资者开始远离美元，并最终抛售美国资产。 与此同时，美联储还面临着一项艰巨的平衡任务：既要支持就业市场，又要遏制物价上涨。尽管通胀率 仍高于2%的目标水平，央行官员们今年已实施了第三次降息。 "坦率地说，我认为当 ...

Core Insights - The report by DBS Bank highlights the need for a defensive asset allocation strategy in 2026 due to rising "fiscal dominance" risks and persistent inflation, recommending an overweight in bonds and gold while focusing on valuation recovery opportunities in Asian equities excluding Japan [1][3]. AI Bubble Debate - The report analyzes the current "AI bubble" concerns, noting that while the U.S. stock market exhibits bubble-like characteristics, the macroeconomic conditions are more favorable compared to the 2000 internet bubble, with the Federal Reserve in a rate-cutting cycle and major tech firms maintaining strong cash flows [2]. - The capital expenditure for generative AI is currently about 1.2% of U.S. GDP, significantly lower than the 5.0% during the 19th-century railroad bubble and the 5.1% during the 2000 tech bubble, indicating that current investment levels are manageable relative to the economy [2]. - Investors are advised to shift focus from AI infrastructure to "Adapters," large non-tech companies that can leverage AI to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [2]. Macro Challenges - The report warns of an "extreme era" shaped by geopolitical changes and U.S. debt issues, with U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 100% and high interest payments posing "fiscal dominance" risks, potentially leading to a long-term rise in inflation [3]. - Investors are encouraged to allocate to physical assets to hedge against inflation, with a maintained overweight rating on gold due to concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and geopolitical uncertainties [3]. Asset Allocation - DBS Bank's model indicates that bonds are currently more attractive than stocks, recommending an overweight in fixed income assets and focusing on high-quality investment-grade bonds while avoiding high-yield bonds with poor risk-reward ratios [4]. - In the equity market, a more nuanced allocation strategy is suggested, with a strong overweight rating on Asian equities (excluding Japan) due to a 32.4% discount compared to developed markets and a projected earnings growth of 18.9% for 2026, surpassing the 11.8% expected for developed markets [4]. - The report highlights potential for further gains in the Chinese market driven by policy stimulus, a rebound in AI-related capital expenditures, and improved corporate earnings outlook [4]. - For the European market, while maintaining a lower allocation stance, the report suggests focusing on the defense sector, which is expected to see a 24% earnings growth in 2026 as NATO members commit to increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP [4]. - Additionally, the report recommends allocating some funds to alternative assets, including private equity and hedge funds, to diversify risks amid increasing market volatility [4].

Macro News - The New York Fed President Williams stated that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve positions it well to address future challenges, believing that inflation will decline as the job market cools [1] - Williams noted that the Fed's recent rate cut shifted its policy stance from moderately restrictive to neutral, asserting that the impact of tariffs on prices is likely to be one-time [1] - Boston Fed President Collins expressed support for the Fed's recent rate cut decision due to changes in the inflation outlook [1] - Fed Governor Milan indicated that the Fed's past purchases of mortgage-backed securities have injected significant credit into the housing market, potentially exacerbating current housing affordability issues [1] - CNBC reported that some aides to President Trump oppose the candidacy of Powell's potential successor, Hasset, due to concerns over his close relationship with the President [1] - Milan commented that financial markets are more concerned with the actual outcomes of Fed policies rather than the motivations of officials or their relationships with the President [1] Housing Market - U.S. homebuilder confidence rose to its highest level in eight months at 39 in December, but construction activity remains constrained by rising building costs due to import tariffs [2] - The confidence index has been below the neutral level of 50 for 20 consecutive months, with economic uncertainty and potential homebuyers hesitating due to affordability issues also contributing to the slowdown [2] Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for November showed a complex signal with an increase of 64,000 jobs, surpassing market expectations of 45,000, but the previous month's figure was significantly revised down to a loss of 105,000 [2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than expected and the highest since September 2021, indicating a cooling labor market despite apparent resilience [2] - The combination of upward revisions in job numbers, rising unemployment, and downward adjustments in historical data suggests a gradual cooling of the job market [2] - Weak labor market data typically supports gold and silver prices, as it reinforces market expectations for Fed rate cuts, putting pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [2] - However, persistent inflation and economic resilience keep the Fed's stance cautious, leading to high uncertainty regarding a potential rate cut in January [2] - The market is likely to experience a high-level oscillation pattern, awaiting further economic data and clearer signals from the Fed regarding policy direction [2]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a "weak labor supply" is misleading; excluding the broad contributions of AI, the US economy is essentially on the brink of recession [3][24]. Labor Market Dynamics - The US labor supply continues to recover, contributing to a rising unemployment rate, which is a concerning trend as it indicates a weakening "service-employment-income-consumption" chain [3][24]. - The unemployment rate is becoming a critical indicator for observing the US economy, with the Federal Reserve showing increased concern over the rising unemployment rate starting in the second half of 2025 [5][27]. - The labor supply situation is uneven, with "red states" experiencing growth while "blue states" see employment levels contracting, leading to a more alarming signal regarding economic sensitivity [5][27]. Employment Trends - The structure of non-farm payroll employment remains unbalanced, heavily reliant on the education and healthcare sectors, with other private sector job growth showing minimal positive changes [9][31]. - A significant reduction in government employment due to a buyout program has led to the lowest year-on-year growth rate since May 2021, while private sector job growth approaches a low point [11][32]. - The volatility in job creation and economic expectations is affecting the overall stability of the labor market, which is reflected in the high fluctuations of new employment figures [15][36]. Wage Growth and Economic Impact - Wage growth has slipped to 3.5% year-on-year, presenting challenges to purchasing power despite real wage growth remaining positive [16][37]. - The anticipated impact of interest rate cuts on employment appears to be overestimated, as the rising unemployment rate and limited job growth distribution indicate a weakening economic environment [18][40].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is trapped in a cycle where lowering interest rates could trigger hyperinflation, while maintaining high rates may lead to deflationary collapse. The most likely future scenario is a resurgence of inflation due to current debt levels and policy inertia [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Inflation - Modern monetary policy aims to avoid deflation at all costs, viewing it as a taboo under Keynesian principles. However, deflation can be necessary to correct market distortions such as poor investments and debt addiction [1][4]. - The financial system has developed a pathological dependence on inflation due to the Federal Reserve's refusal to allow market corrections, as seen during the 2008 financial crisis [5]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Economic Indicators - Despite recent interest rate hikes, the fundamental issues remain unaddressed. In the 1980s, rates had to exceed 20% to combat stagflation, while current increases are merely superficial [2][6]. - The U.S. government incurs quarterly interest payments of $250 billion, indicating unsustainable debt levels and eroding purchasing power of the dollar [6]. Group 3: Future Projections - A significant risk is anticipated in 2026, as the Federal Reserve may lower rates to avoid recession, leading to a resurgence of suppressed inflation [7]. - The likelihood is high that the Federal Reserve will choose to continue monetary easing, which could result in uncontrollable inflation unless drastic rate hikes are implemented [8]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Asset Strategies - The market is increasingly purchasing gold and silver as a hedge against anticipated inflation and the unsustainability of U.S. debt [6][8]. - The actual impact of tariffs on inflation is minimal, as companies can absorb costs, and reducing immigration to lower demand would require significant time and effort [8].

Core Viewpoint - The current exchange rate of the Korean won against the US dollar is not a traditional financial crisis, but it can be considered a crisis due to its significant impact on inflation and social inequality [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong stated that the imbalance in foreign exchange supply and demand is the main reason for the weakening of the won [1][3]. - The current exchange rate level is unsatisfactory, especially considering concerns about the polarization of economic growth [1][3]. Group 2: Foreign Investment and Market Stability - Korean investors are heavily investing overseas, while foreign investors have been selling Korean stocks following recent price increases, causing the won to hover below 1450 won per dollar [1][3]. - The Korean government has committed to taking appropriate measures to ensure market stability, including extending the foreign exchange swap agreement with the National Pension Service (NPS) for one year [1][3]. Group 3: NPS and Currency Hedging - Lee emphasized that the NPS should not be overly transparent regarding the timing of initiating or suspending currency hedging, suggesting it is time to manage overseas investments while considering their macroeconomic spillover effects [2][4]. - A four-party consultative body has been formed, including the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Korea, the NPS, and the Ministry of Welfare, to design a new framework that aligns NPS investment returns with market stability [2][4]. - The NPS has indicated it will adopt a more flexible approach to strategic currency hedging rather than being overly transparent, which is seen as a significant advancement [2][4].

威尔斯表示，澳大利亚央行将于明年2月2日至3日举行下次货币政策会议。近期通胀风险偏向上行，尽 管澳央行已指出其中部分因素具有暂时性，但显然仍从中获取了一定信号。西太平洋银行预测，通胀将 在2026年有所回落，但澳央行董事会已经持更为鹰派的立场，因此进一步放松货币政策的时间可能会在 2027年。 他补充说，这一判断面临双向风险。如果通胀持续大幅高于预期，那么澳央行加息的可能性将上升；但 如果劳动力市场弱于预期，更早降息就可能重新被提上议程。 资讯编辑：刘佳惠 021-26093916 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授 权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方 便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。 西太平洋银行和墨尔本研究院17日发布的报告指出，2025年11月澳大利亚西太平洋银行／墨尔本研究院 经济 ...

今日周三（12月17日）亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于981附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂981.30元/克， 涨幅0.58%，最高触及981.48元/克，最低下探971.72元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向震荡走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 特朗普近期难守信息主线，常脱稿攻击政敌或淡化物价压力，海湖庄园奢华派对等举动削弱宣传。万斯 则严格照本宣科，为保护主义贸易辩护，并以自身贫寒经历拉近与工薪阶层距离，吹捧减税及打击非法 移民政策。 活动选址Uline仓库亦具深意——其所有者是共和党大金主。现场支持者多表认同，但也有工人质疑物 价仍高。万斯坚称经济前景光明，被问评分时笑答"A++++"，延续特朗普的自信基调。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 沪金期货近期维持高位震荡，主力合约运行于475-480元/克区间，日线依托短期均线支撑，多头格局未 破。MACD快慢线位于零轴上方，红柱略有收缩，显示上行动能暂缓；RSI约58，处于偏强区但未超 买。小时图呈收敛整理，短线或延续区间波动，若回踩473-474元企稳可低吸，突破481元则看向483- 485元。操作上建议区间内高抛低吸，突破后顺势跟进，关注国 ...

新华财经悉尼12月17日电（记者李晓渝）西太平洋银行和墨尔本研究院17日发布的报告指出，2025年11 月澳大利亚西太平洋银行／墨尔本研究院经济活动领先指数（Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity）的6个月年化增长率从10月的0.32%下滑至0.16%。 西太平洋银行经济学家瑞安·威尔斯表示，11月指数增长率回落主要反映出当月股市抛售现象以及消费 者预期的降温。尽管该指数仍处于正值区间，但整体表现较为低迷，显示经济动能出现一定停滞。西太 平洋银行预测，澳同比经济增速将从目前约2.1%的水平小幅回升，至2026年升至约2.4%，而2.4%的水 平大致符合趋势水平。 他说，过去6个月，指数增长率略有上升，从5月的0.09%提高了0.07个百分点。此前该指数的一些疲软 表现与当时的高度不确定性因素有关，这种不确定性主要源于特朗普提出的所谓"对等关税"，而这一因 素目前已有所缓解。 资料显示，西太平洋银行／墨尔本研究院经济活动领先指数是将涉及当地金融、住房和劳动力市场，消 费者对经济活动与失业情况的预期，以及国际经济活动等多个领域的 ...