[Table_Page] 投资策略|专题报告 2025 年 12 月 13 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 挣脱牢笼：打破历史经验的桎梏 ——2026 年年度策略展望 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： | [分析师： Table_Author]刘晨明 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524020001 | | | SFC CE No. BVH021 | | | 010-59136616 | | | liuchenming@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 郑恺 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260515090004 | | | SFC CE No. BUU989 | | | 021-38003559 | | | zhengkai@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 李如娟 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524030002 | | 分析师： | 倪赓 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260519070001 | | | SFC CE No. BVB358 | | 分析师： | 许向真 | | | SAC 执证号：S026052 ...

Economic Situation - The economic situation is characterized by persistent challenges, but the overall tone is becoming more positive. The external environment is expected to stabilize marginally, while domestic supply-demand imbalances are highlighted as a significant issue [2][10]. - The meeting emphasizes the need to address "development and transformation" issues, indicating that many challenges can be resolved through concerted efforts [10]. Five Musts - The meeting outlines "Five Musts" to enhance economic potential, focusing on internal capacity building to respond to external challenges and the importance of policy support alongside reform innovation [2][18]. - Key strategies include ensuring effective market regulation while promoting investment in both physical and human capital [19]. 2025 Growth Target - The growth target for 2026 is set at approximately 5% for both nominal and real GDP, reflecting a pragmatic approach to align with long-term goals and current economic conditions [3][21]. - The transition of growth drivers is expected, with the "three new economies" projected to surpass the real estate sector historically [21]. Macroeconomic Policy - The macroeconomic policy framework is shifting from "promoting stability through growth" to "enhancing quality and efficiency," indicating a focus on structural optimization rather than mere expansion [4][26]. - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a deficit rate around 4%, with a focus on improving the efficiency of spending rather than just increasing the scale [30][31]. - Monetary policy will remain moderately accommodative, with expectations for potential rate cuts and targeted support for key sectors [36][40]. Key Tasks - The emphasis on domestic demand is paramount, with strategies to boost consumption and stabilize investment growth projected at 2-3% for 2026 [5][46]. - Innovation-driven growth is prioritized, with plans to strengthen the integration of education, technology, and talent development [6][50]. - Reforms will focus on eliminating barriers to development, enhancing market dynamics, and improving the business environment [7][57]. Real Estate Market - The policy focus is shifting towards stabilizing the real estate market, moving from demand stimulation to a balanced supply-demand approach [8][63].

专题：中央经济工作会议在北京举行 业内解读 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：雪涛宏观笔记 内生动力前低后高，政策节奏前高后低，经济正在走出新的曲线。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 回顾十四五的五年，转型是这一阶段最好的注脚。五年间，曾经作为经济发动机的地产逐渐退出舞台的 中心，三新经济（新产业、新业态、新商业模式）逐渐成长为经济新的引擎。在新旧动能转化之间，不 同行业、不同区域、不同群体之间出现转型节奏的分化，表现为宏观经济与微观体感之间的温差。 在这一过程中，与地产链绑定更大的地区，面临着更多的转型压力。比如近几年，广东GDP增速在4% 左右，显著低于江苏、山东、浙江、四川5.5%以上的增速水平，也低于全国平均增速。其中，作为"家 电之都"的佛山，2025年前三季度增速仅1.6%，在万亿GDP城市中排在末位。 但随着时间推移，地产对经济的拖累正在明显降低。2025年按照估算单纯房地产开发投资所拉动的增加 值占GDP的比重从2020年的10.2%大幅回落至2025年5.1%左右，广义房地产拉动增加值占名义GDP的比 重或从2021年的17.3%左右回落至10 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the Chinese economy during the 14th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the shift from real estate as the main economic driver to the emergence of the "three new economies" (new industries, new business formats, and new business models) as the new engine of growth [4][7]. Group 1: Economic Transformation - The real estate sector has gradually exited the central stage of the economy, with GDP growth rates in regions heavily tied to real estate, such as Guangdong, lagging behind others like Jiangsu and Zhejiang [4]. - By 2025, the contribution of real estate development investment to GDP is expected to drop significantly from 10.2% in 2020 to around 5.1% [4][30]. - The "three new economies" are projected to increase their share of China's GDP from 16% in 2020 to 18% by 2024, indicating a growing importance of high-tech manufacturing and information technology investments [7]. Group 2: Credit Market and De-leveraging - The credit market is showing a clear trend of de-leveraging from real estate, with new real estate loans decreasing by 330 billion yuan from 2023 to the first three quarters of 2025 [5]. - The shift reflects a broader economic transition where low-leverage sectors are becoming the main drivers of growth, as households work to reduce debt [5]. Group 3: Export Dynamics - Despite trade tensions, China's export share remained stable at 14.2% in the first half of 2025, with significant growth in exports to Africa and the Middle East [13][21][24]. - The automotive sector, particularly in new energy vehicles, has become a key player in boosting China's export performance, with exports projected to reach 586 million units by 2024, surpassing Germany and Japan [13]. Group 4: Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market is experiencing a second downturn, with housing prices expected to revert to levels seen in 2016, and total sales area projected to decline by nearly 50% from 2020 highs [30][31]. - The overall demand for real estate is stabilizing, with indicators like the price-to-income ratio and rental yields approaching mid-term stability [30]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior and Spending - The impact of real estate on consumer spending is diminishing, as evidenced by rising retail sales growth in first-tier cities despite falling housing prices [36]. - Service consumption is expected to grow, supported by policy measures, while traditional goods consumption faces challenges due to the decline in "old-for-new" subsidies [43][44]. Group 6: Price Trends and Inflation - The article anticipates a gradual recovery in prices driven by economic recovery, with CPI expected to rise to around 0.2% in 2026, influenced by various factors including the stabilization of housing prices [45][55]. - The PPI is projected to show a "front low, back high" trend, with overall PPI expected to be around -1.3% for the year [55].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the Chinese economy, particularly focusing on the bond and stock markets, macroeconomic policies, and consumer behavior in 2025 and 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. Key Points and Arguments Economic Transition and Growth - It is anticipated that by 2026, China will experience a transition from traditional economic drivers to new ones, with emerging industries and high-end manufacturing gaining prominence [1][3][4]. - The "three new economies" are expected to account for 18% of GDP in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.7% [1][4]. Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment is projected to benefit from industrial upgrades and international expansion, while infrastructure investment remains resilient due to proactive fiscal policies [1][4]. - Real estate investment may continue to drag down overall economic performance [1][4]. Consumer Market Dynamics - The consumer market in 2025 is characterized by strong policy-driven growth but weak endogenous growth, with a low household consumption rate compared to developed countries [5][6]. - There is a need to repair household balance sheets and focus on lower-tier cities for potential growth in consumption [5][6]. Regional Consumption Patterns - Higher consumption tendencies are observed in central and western provinces, influenced by income growth expectations and leverage burdens [6]. - Future consumption policies may focus on lower-tier markets to enhance spending [6]. Service Consumption Trends - The proportion of per capita service consumption has been rising, reaching 46.1% by 2024, indicating a shift towards service-oriented consumption policies [7]. Inflation and Price Index Predictions - CPI is expected to rise moderately in 2026, driven by core CPI improvements and rising pork prices, while oil prices may exert downward pressure [8]. - PPI is projected to narrow its year-on-year decline, potentially turning positive in the second and third quarters of 2026 [8]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy Outlook - Fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to be more aggressive, with an increase in the general fiscal deficit rate and the issuance of special bonds [10]. - Monetary policy will remain moderately accommodative, with anticipated rate cuts and adjustments to the monetary policy framework [11]. Market Behavior Predictions - In a neutral macroeconomic environment, asset allocation will be driven by stock-bond price ratios and institutional behaviors [12]. - In scenarios of economic recovery, the stock market may enter a bullish phase, while long-term interest rates could face adjustment risks [13]. Additional Important Insights - The analysis emphasizes the need for a comprehensive five-dimensional framework to understand market dynamics, incorporating fiscal inflation and government bond pricing [2]. - The records highlight the importance of structural adjustments and policy support to enhance consumer confidence and spending [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of integrating technological innovation with industrial development to build a modern industrial system in China, particularly in the context of the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans [1][2]. Group 1: Traditional Industry Transformation - Traditional industries, such as steel and pharmaceuticals, are undergoing significant digital and intelligent transformations, with companies like Hunan Huazhong Steel Co. implementing automated systems that enhance efficiency and reduce labor costs [3][4]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reports that over 230 excellent smart factories and 1,260 5G factories have been established since the 14th Five-Year Plan, with China's industrial robot installations accounting for over 50% of the global total [4]. - The traditional industries contribute approximately 80% of the added value in manufacturing, highlighting their critical role in China's competitive advantage and the need for quality upgrades [4][5]. Group 2: New and Future Industries - The 15th Five-Year Plan focuses on developing emerging pillar industries, including new energy, aerospace, and advanced manufacturing clusters, while also laying the groundwork for future industries like quantum technology and brain-computer interfaces [7][10]. - Companies like Xidi Intelligent Driving Technology Co. are capitalizing on market demands for automation in hazardous environments, such as mining, supported by government policies aimed at increasing the adoption of intelligent technologies [10][11]. - The humanoid robot market in China is projected to reach approximately 870 billion yuan by 2030, indicating rapid growth in the new industry sector [11][12]. Group 3: Collaborative Innovation - The establishment of a collaborative innovation ecosystem involving government, enterprises, and research institutions is essential for building a modern industrial system, with policies aimed at fostering industry clusters and supporting technological breakthroughs [13][14]. - The North Star industry cluster in Zhuzhou has attracted over 170 related enterprises, indicating a successful model for industrial integration and collaboration [14]. - The government is encouraged to create a supportive environment for innovation, including financial incentives for basic research and the development of a skilled workforce to facilitate the transition from technology to industry [15][16].

Core Insights - The central viewpoint emphasizes the cultivation and expansion of emerging and future industries in China, with a target for the "three new" economy's contribution to GDP exceeding 18% by 2024 [1] Group 1: Emerging Industries - The proposal highlights the acceleration of strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy, aiming for large-scale development through innovation and technology [4] - China has maintained its position as the global leader in new energy vehicle production and sales for ten consecutive years, with solar and wind power equipment production ranking among the highest in the world [4] - Over 60 national advanced manufacturing clusters in emerging industries have been cultivated, along with the establishment of 23 national independent innovation demonstration zones [4] Group 2: Future Industries - The proposal advocates for the advancement of future industries including quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communications as new economic growth points [7] - The biomanufacturing industry in China has reached a scale of nearly 1 trillion yuan, with the embodied intelligence market expected to reach 5.295 billion yuan by 2025, accounting for approximately 27% of the global market [7] Group 3: Economic Impact - The cultivation and expansion of emerging and future industries are projected to generate a new scale equivalent to recreating China's high-tech industry over the next decade, providing continuous new momentum for high-quality economic development [9]

Core Insights - The narrative surrounding China's economic growth has shifted, with trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries now accounting for nearly half of China's total trade, up from just over 30% a few years ago [2] - China's export growth is increasingly driven by emerging markets, with a significant transformation in export structure from low-value products to electric vehicles, photovoltaic equipment, energy storage products, and AI software systems [4][6] - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has led to a significant reduction in tariffs, boosting trade within the region to over 2.5 trillion RMB [7] Trade Dynamics - U.S. companies are facing challenges in reducing reliance on China, as many products shipped from Southeast Asia and Mexico are still produced by Chinese firms operating overseas [9] - China has shifted its soybean imports from the U.S. to Brazil and Argentina, highlighting the strategic importance of its agricultural and technological sectors [11] - China's semiconductor self-sufficiency is projected to reach over 30% by 2025, as the country accelerates its domestic R&D efforts [11] Economic Resilience - China's economy is showing resilience through internal vitality, with GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of the year [15] - The manufacturing sector is evolving, with high-tech manufacturing accounting for 16.7% of industrial value added, and green energy consumption increasing by approximately 1.7 percentage points [17] - The "new economy" (new industries, new business models) is becoming a significant growth engine, with a projected growth rate of 6.7% in 2024, outpacing overall GDP growth [19] Global Economic Landscape - The global economic landscape is undergoing a transformation, with the dominance of the U.S. dollar gradually weakening, while China's manufacturing and market potential become more pronounced [21] - China's competitive edge is bolstered by its manufacturing resilience, renewable energy advantages, and market potential, positioning it as a leader in the new global economic arena [21]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has been approved, providing direction for China's economic and social development over the next five years [1][6] - China's economy has shown resilience and strategic determination in the face of global trade changes, with a focus on high-quality development and structural upgrades [2][5] Economic Performance - In the first three quarters, China's total import and export volume reached 33.6078 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, with exports at 19.945 trillion yuan, growing by 7.1% [2] - The export structure is improving, with mechanical and electrical products growing by 9.6%, accounting for 60.5% of total exports [2] - Trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries increased by 6.2% [2] Strategic Focus - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of technological self-reliance and innovation as key drivers for modernizing the economy [4][5] - The plan aims to enhance the quality and scale of economic development through technological advancements and the establishment of a modern industrial system [3][4] Future Outlook - By 2024, the value added by the "three new" economy (new industries, new business formats, and new models) is expected to exceed 18% of GDP, indicating a shift in economic growth dynamics [4] - The focus will be on creating a globally competitive modern industrial system and transitioning from being an adapter of global rules to a standard-setter [4][5]

Core Insights - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) showcases a blend of "black technology" and the "silver economy," highlighting new industries, business models, and the potential for economic growth in China [1][2][9]. Group 1: Black Technology Innovations - Siemens Medical introduced a high-gradient magnetic resonance device to assist Neuralink in clinical trials for brain-machine interfaces, enhancing surgical precision [2]. - The Photon Counting CT family made its Asian debut, with two models expected to be produced locally by 2026, aiming to improve conditions for Parkinson's patients and offer hope for paraplegics [2]. - Notable products include Tesla's Cybercab, Johnson & Johnson's artificial heart, and Sony's AI fall detection sensor, indicating a shift from science fiction to market reality [2][3]. Group 2: Silver Economy Developments - The expo highlighted technologies aimed at the elderly, such as a caregiving robot that can switch between robot and wheelchair modes, designed to assist with daily tasks and provide companionship [3][4]. - IKEA introduced six "age-friendly" living zones focused on safety for seniors, featuring designs like non-slip handrails and adjustable tables [4]. - Sony's AI fall detection device offers privacy-preserving monitoring, capable of detecting falls without cameras and providing immediate alerts [6]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Policy Support - The "silver economy" is gaining traction, with a complete industry chain emerging, including smart aids, health services, and home modifications [7]. - Philips emphasized its commitment to AI in healthcare, with significant R&D investment aimed at integrating AI into medical workflows [8]. - The national "14th Five-Year Plan" supports the development of the silver economy, reflecting a strong policy push towards addressing aging population challenges [9][11].