Core Viewpoint - The issuance schedule for ultra-long-term special government bonds in the third quarter has been announced, with a total of 11 bonds to be issued, indicating a proactive fiscal policy aimed at boosting market confidence and investment [1][3]. Issuance Schedule - In July, three bonds will be issued, including a 20-year bond on July 14 and a 30-year bond on the same day, both being first issuances [2] - In August, four bonds will be issued, including a 50-year bond on August 1 and a 30-year bond on August 22, with several renewals scheduled [2] - In September, four bonds will be issued, including a 50-year bond on September 10 and a 30-year bond on September 19, all with semi-annual interest payments [2] Issuance Scale - In the first half of the year, 9 ultra-long-term special government bonds were issued, totaling 555 billion yuan, which is 42.69% of the total issuance for the year, significantly higher than the 250 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] - The total issuance scale for the second half of the year is projected to be 745 billion yuan, with a concentration in the third quarter [2] Fiscal Policy Impact - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds is set to increase to 1.3 trillion yuan this year, up by 300 billion yuan from last year, with 800 billion yuan allocated to support "two heavy" projects and 500 billion yuan for "two new" policies [3] - The proactive fiscal policy aims to stimulate market confidence, social investment, and consumption, thereby enhancing market vitality [3][4] Consumption and Investment Support - The funding support for consumption goods replacement is set at 300 billion yuan, with previous allocations exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan in sales for related products this year [4] - The first batch of funding for equipment updates has been allocated to approximately 7,500 projects across 16 sectors, with ongoing project reviews for subsequent funding [4]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive and home appliance sectors remain key highlights of the economy under the "Two New" policy benefits, with steady growth in retail sales of passenger vehicles and significant increases in new energy vehicle sales [1][7][8]. Automotive Sector - From June 1 to June 15, retail sales of passenger vehicles increased by 20% year-on-year, compared to 13% in the previous month. Wholesale sales rose by 24% year-on-year, up from 14% [1][7]. - New energy vehicle sales during the same period reached 402,000 units, marking a 38% year-on-year increase, with a penetration rate of 57% [1][7]. Home Appliance Sector - The three major home appliances (air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines) maintained high sales growth, particularly in the first week of June, although growth slowed in the second week. Online sales from June 2 to June 8 showed year-on-year increases of 80.0% for air conditioners, 5.7% for refrigerators, and 42.6% for washing machines [8][9]. - In the subsequent week, online sales growth for these appliances dropped significantly, with air conditioners at 12.5%, refrigerators at -14.5%, and washing machines at 9.7% [8][9]. Industrial Sector - Container throughput growth has slowed, with domestic ports reporting a 0.6% year-on-year decline in cargo throughput from June 2 to June 15, while container throughput saw a slight increase of 0.7% [2][9]. - The industrial sector's operating rates and electricity consumption reflect seasonal characteristics, with steel and coking industries showing lower operating rates compared to May [3][11]. Real Estate Market - New home sales have shown signs of weakening, with the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities dropping by 7.6% year-on-year in mid-June [5][18]. - However, the second-hand housing market remains relatively active, with a 14.8% year-on-year increase in intermediary purchases across 84 cities [5][18]. Price Trends - Industrial product prices have seen a slight month-on-month recovery, particularly in non-ferrous metals, while consumer goods show mixed trends [19][20]. - The average wholesale price of pork has decreased by 2.0% month-on-month, indicating fluctuations in food prices [20].

Economic Growth Forecast - The GDP growth rate for Q2 is expected to be around 5.2%, with the first half of the year projected at approximately 5.3%[2] - Monthly GDP growth rates for April and May are estimated at 5.4% and 5.3%, respectively, aligning with demand-side predictions[2] Export and Trade Dynamics - Exports are anticipated to achieve a growth rate of 3%-5% in Q2, driven by "grabbing exports" and "grabbing trans-exports" despite high base effects[2][23] - The easing of trade frictions is expected to enhance export performance, making the real economic fundamentals more noteworthy in Q2[4] Consumer Spending Insights - Retail sales growth for the first four months of the year is at 4.7%, with "trade-in" consumption categories showing a 7.2% increase, contributing approximately 1.1 percentage points to overall retail growth[5] - The impact of "trade-in" policies is projected to support retail sales growth at around 4.5%-5% in Q2, with final consumption growth estimated at about 4.3%[20] Real Estate Market Trends - Real estate sales are facing downward pressure as the effects of the 924 policy diminish, with a 1-4 month cumulative decline in new housing sales area of -2.8% compared to -17.1% in the previous year[14] - The second-hand housing market showed a significant increase of 21.1% in transaction area from October 2024 to March 2025, but recent data indicates a cooling trend[14] Investment and Policy Implications - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to stabilize around 4%, supported by equipment updates and infrastructure projects, with manufacturing and infrastructure investment showing year-on-year increases of 8.8% and 10.9% respectively[23] - The overall economic stability in the first half of the year provides ample room for policy responses to external uncertainties, with sufficient flexibility for incremental policy adjustments in Q3[2][20]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between China Guoxin and China Railway aims to enhance cooperation and leverage each other's strengths to achieve mutual development in response to national strategies [1] Group 1: Company Collaboration - China Guoxin focuses on the role of state-owned capital operation companies, aiming to serve central enterprises and support national strategies [1] - China Guoxin expresses a desire to deepen cooperation with China Railway, emphasizing their good partnership and the potential for expanding collaboration areas [1] Group 2: Industry Opportunities - China Railway is seizing opportunities presented by the government's increased support for "two heavy" projects and urban renewal initiatives [1] - The company is committed to advancing its development in equipment manufacturing, engineering construction, and rail transit services [1]

Group 1 - The "Two Major" projects are driving the acceleration of significant engineering projects across multiple regions, supported by macro policies aimed at expanding effective investment [2][3] - The Beijing Urban Sub-center Station, part of the "Two Major" projects, is progressing to the decoration phase and is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, enhancing connectivity to major airports and regions [2] - As of early April, the "Two Major" projects supported by ultra-long-term special bonds have attracted approximately 2.1 trillion yuan in social capital investment [3] Group 2 - In the first quarter, national investment exceeded expectations, with a strong growth momentum expected to continue in the first four months of the year [4] - The State Council approved new nuclear power projects, involving significant participation from private enterprises, with ownership stakes exceeding 10% [4]