Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dual nature of Mexico, highlighting its challenges with drug trafficking and violence alongside its potential as a growing market for businesses, particularly for Chinese companies looking to expand into North America and Latin America [4][10]. Group 1: Drug Trafficking and Violence - Mexico has become a hub for drug production and trafficking, with a significant portion of its economy reliant on the drug trade, which has led to widespread violence and corruption [6][8]. - As of 2023, approximately 47.7 million Americans aged 12 and older have illegally used drugs in the past month, representing about 16.8% of that age group [5]. - The drug trade has deeply infiltrated Mexican society, with drug cartels employing around 175,000 people, making them one of the largest employers in the country, surpassing major corporations like Pemex [7][8]. Group 2: Economic Opportunities - Despite the challenges, Mexico is viewed as a critical node in global supply chains, especially for Chinese brands seeking to access the U.S. market amid trade tensions [9][10]. - The country has a population of 130 million and ranks 11th globally in GDP, with a higher per capita GDP than China, indicating significant market potential [23]. - The Mexican government has been actively working to attract foreign investment, particularly from Chinese companies, by offering favorable conditions for manufacturing and trade [23][30]. Group 3: Business Environment and Cultural Differences - The business environment in Mexico requires foreign companies to adapt to local customs and practices, emphasizing the importance of building relationships and trust [25][27]. - There are significant cultural differences between Chinese and Mexican work ethics, with Mexicans valuing work-life balance and personal relationships more than the often intense work culture found in China [26][27]. - Security remains a major concern for businesses, with many companies investing in security measures and navigating a landscape where corruption is prevalent [18][19][20].

Group 1: Core Insights - The trade friction between China and the U.S. has been ongoing for years, but recent signs of easing have created a complex situation for surrounding countries, particularly the EU [1][3] - A preliminary consensus has been reached in U.S.-China trade negotiations, with China maintaining a proactive stance and core interests while the U.S. seeks stable rare earth supplies [3][11] - The agreement includes a one-year extension of tariffs, reducing certain tariffs to 10%, which is lower than those faced by Japan and South Korea, enhancing the attractiveness of China's supply chain [3][11] Group 2: Germany and EU Response - Germany has quickly shifted its stance, with Chancellor Merz emphasizing the need for Europe to not let the U.S. and China dictate technological futures, launching a "German High-Tech Agenda" [7][9] - The EU has historically attempted to benefit from the U.S.-China rivalry but has not gained significant advantages, leading to a strategic shortfall as the U.S. focuses on other allies [11][13] - The shift in Germany's position highlights the urgency for the EU to pursue technological independence, although internal divisions among member states may hinder cohesive action [11][13] Group 3: Global Trade Dynamics - The recent consensus between China and the U.S. is expected to reshape global trade dynamics, with Japan and South Korea investing heavily to secure lower tariffs, while the EU faces potential losses [13] - China's role as a stabilizer in global trade is emphasized, with trade agreements like RCEP and CPTPP gaining importance amid shifting geopolitical landscapes [13] - The need for substantive actions from Germany and the EU is critical to avoid further industrial pressures, as mere verbal commitments may not suffice [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold market: Suggest buying at the lower support level for gold, and consider gradually reducing long positions for silver due to a potential short squeeze [2]. - Basic metals: For copper, maintain a short - term view of a slightly bullish oscillation; for electrolytic aluminum, be cautious of short - term corrections and maintain a long - term bullish view; for alumina, expect price oscillations and focus on active industry production cuts [3]. - Industrial silicon: The supply contraction is expected to be greater than the demand contraction, and the price is expected to range between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [4]. - Polysilicon: With the progress of the near - month storage platform falling short of expectations, suggest a wait - and - see approach [4]. - Tin: Pay attention to the adjustment risk as the price approaches the pressure level of 300,000 yuan [4]. - Black industry: For rebar, iron ore, and coking coal, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach and consider shorting relevant contracts [5][6]. - Agricultural products: For soybeans, focus on the fulfillment of the USDA report; for corn, expect short - term price oscillations; for palm oil, focus on production and biodiesel policies; for sugar, short in the futures market and sell call options; for cotton, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for eggs and pigs, expect price oscillations [7][8]. - Energy and chemical industry: For LLDPE and PP, suggest short - term oscillations and long - term short positions or month - spread reverse arbitrage; for PVC, suggest short positions; for PTA, take profit on long positions and short processing fees in the far - month; for rubber, expect short - term strength and medium - term oscillations; for glass, suggest a wait - and - see approach; for MEG, short at high levels; for crude oil, short at high levels if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day; for styrene, expect short - term oscillations; for soda ash, suggest a wait - and - see approach [9][10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Market - Market performance: Overnight precious metal prices oscillated at high levels, with London gold closing at $4145 per ounce [2]. - Fundamentals: Trump's chief economic advisor mentioned potential job losses due to the government shutdown; multiple Fed officials expressed different views on interest rates. There were changes in gold and silver inventories in various regions, and the holdings of major ETFs also changed [2]. - Trading strategy: Suggest buying gold at the lower support level and gradually reducing long positions for silver [2]. Basic Metals Copper - Market performance: Copper prices rose and then fell yesterday [3]. - Fundamentals: Multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and domestic monetary and credit data were below expectations. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and there were spot discounts in East and South China [3]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a short - term view of a slightly bullish oscillation [3]. Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.78% compared to the previous trading day, and the LME price was $2906.5 per ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate decreased slightly [3]. - Trading strategy: Be cautious of short - term corrections and maintain a long - term bullish view [3]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.67% compared to the previous trading day [3]. - Fundamentals: Alumina plants had stable production, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading strategy: Expect price oscillations and focus on active industry production cuts [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: The main 01 contract opened lower and oscillated widely, closing at 9145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. - Fundamentals: The number of open furnaces decreased, and both social and warehouse inventories decreased slightly. The demand from polysilicon supported the market, while the organic silicon monomer industry planned to cut production by 30% [4]. - Trading strategy: Expect the price to range between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and suggest a wait - and - see approach [4]. Polysilicon - Market performance: The main 01 contract opened higher and oscillated narrowly, closing at 54195 yuan/ton, an increase of 735 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. - Fundamentals: The weekly output decreased slightly, and both industry and warehouse inventories increased. Downstream product prices were stable, and the production schedules of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased [4]. - Trading strategy: With the progress of the near - month storage platform falling short of expectations, suggest a wait - and - see approach [4]. Tin - Market performance: Tin prices rose and then fell yesterday [4]. - Fundamentals: Multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and domestic monetary and credit data were below expectations. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and domestic warehouse receipts increased [4]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to the adjustment risk as the price approaches the pressure level of 300,000 yuan [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The main 2601 contract of rebar closed at 3048 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The apparent demand for building materials decreased, and the production also decreased significantly. The futures discount narrowed, and the valuation was neutral [5]. - Trading strategy: Mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach and consider shorting the 2601 contract [5]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The main 2601 contract of iron ore closed at 776.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The port inventory increased, and the number of ships at berth also increased. The iron ore supply - demand situation weakened marginally, and the valuation was neutral [5][6]. - Trading strategy: Mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach and consider shorting the 2601 contract [6]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The main 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1214 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - Fundamentals: The molten iron output increased, and the steel mill profits deteriorated. The third round of price increases for coking coal was implemented, and the futures valuation was high [6]. - Trading strategy: Mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach and consider shorting the 2601 contract [6]. Agricultural Products Soybeans - Market performance: CBOT soybeans were slightly bullish in the short term [7]. - Fundamentals: The US soybean harvest was nearing completion, and the market expected the USDA to lower the US soybean yield. South American soybeans were in the sowing stage with an expected increase in production. The demand for crushing and exports improved [7]. - Trading strategy: Focus on the fulfillment of the USDA report, and the domestic market is relatively bullish in the short term, with the medium - term trend depending on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [7]. Corn - Market performance: Corn futures prices oscillated narrowly, while spot prices continued to rise [7]. - Fundamentals: The national corn channel inventory was low, and there was a need for inventory building. The demand from deep - processing enterprises was strong, but the effective supply was insufficient in the short term. The new - crop corn was expected to increase in production, which would suppress the long - term price [7]. - Trading strategy: Expect short - term price oscillations and suggest a wait - and - see approach [7]. Palm Oil - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rose slightly yesterday [7]. - Fundamentals: The production in Malaysia in October increased, and the export also increased. The near - term inventory continued to accumulate, while there was an expected seasonal production decline in the long term [7]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy and focus on future production and biodiesel policies [7]. Sugar - Market performance: The 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5498 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% [7]. - Fundamentals: Globally, the supply surplus expectation was increasing, and the raw sugar price reached a five - year low. In China, the market showed an internal - strong and external - weak pattern, but it would eventually follow the decline of raw sugar [7][8]. - Trading strategy: Short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. Cotton - Market performance: The US cotton futures prices fell overnight, and international crude oil prices oscillated narrowly [8]. - Fundamentals: The USDA's US cotton export data was released. The Brazilian cotton production was expected to increase. In China, the Xinjiang cotton purchase was almost completed, and the textile enterprise yarn inventory increased [8]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and focus on the range of 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton [8]. Eggs - Market performance: Egg futures and spot prices both fell [8]. - Fundamentals: The egg production inventory decreased, and the demand weakened after Double Eleven [8]. - Trading strategy: Expect price oscillations [8]. Pigs - Market performance: Pig futures prices rebounded, while spot prices fell [8]. - Fundamentals: The pig supply was still abundant, but the demand was expected to increase seasonally, and the price was expected to oscillate at a low level [8]. - Trading strategy: Expect price oscillations [8]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - Market performance: The main LLDPE contract oscillated slightly yesterday. The spot price in North China was 6790 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened [9]. - Fundamentals: The new device was put into operation, and the domestic supply pressure slowed down. The import window was closed, and the downstream demand weakened [9]. - Trading strategy: Expect short - term oscillations and suggest short positions or month - spread reverse arbitrage in the long term [9]. PVC - Market performance: The V01 contract closed at 4585 yuan, unchanged [9]. - Fundamentals: The PVC ex - factory price decreased, and the supply increased. The demand from downstream factories recovered less than expected, and the social inventory was high [9][10]. - Trading strategy: Suggest short positions due to weak supply and demand [10]. PTA - Market performance: The CFR China price of PX was $821 per ton, and the PTA spot price in East China was 4600 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply of PX was high, and the overall import volume increased. The PTA supply pressure was large in the long term, and the polyester factory load was high [10]. - Trading strategy: Take profit on long positions for PX and short processing fees in the far - month for PTA [10]. Rubber - Market performance: The RU2601 contract oscillated upward, closing at 15390 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.42% [10]. - Fundamentals: The prices of Thai rubber raw materials increased slightly, and the tire factory utilization rates and inventories changed [10]. - Trading strategy: Expect short - term strength and medium - term oscillations [10]. Glass - Market performance: The FG01 contract closed at 1055 yuan, an increase of 0.3% [10]. - Fundamentals: The glass inventory suppressed the price, and the downstream demand was weak. The production profit varied by process [10]. - Trading strategy: Suggest a wait - and - see approach as the supply - demand is weak and the downside space is limited [10]. PP - Market performance: The main PP contract oscillated slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China was 6430 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened [10]. - Fundamentals: The new device was put into operation, and the supply pressure increased. The downstream demand weakened [10]. - Trading strategy: Expect short - term oscillations and suggest short positions or month - spread reverse arbitrage in the long term [10][11]. MEG - Market performance: The spot price of MEG in East China was 3981 yuan/ton, and the basis was 68 yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply pressure was large in the long term, and the inventory was at a medium - low level. The polyester factory load was high, but the downstream demand weakened [11]. - Trading strategy: Short at high levels for the 01 contract [11]. Crude Oil - Market performance: The sc contract fell sharply and then rebounded slightly [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply risk of Russian oil increased, and the OPEC + planned to increase production moderately. The demand in Europe and the US was seasonally weak [11]. - Trading strategy: Short at high levels if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day [11]. Styrene - Market performance: The main EB contract rebounded slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China was 6480 yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamentals: The pure benzene and styrene inventories were at normal - to - high levels. The short - term supply - demand improved, but the long - term situation was still weak [11]. - Trading strategy: Expect short - term oscillations, with the upside space limited by the import window [11]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The SA01 contract closed at 1240 yuan, an increase of 1.8% [11]. - Fundamentals: The soda ash supply was stable, and the upstream had a price - supporting attitude. The inventory was balanced, and the downstream demand from photovoltaic glass was stable [11][12]. - Trading strategy: Suggest a wait - and - see approach [12].

11月10日起，中美同时松开拳头，在同一时间各自后退三步，调整关税与管控政策，外界称这是"罕见 的同步降温"。美国降低了部分商品关税、延长301条款豁免清单，暂停出口管制和港口附加费一年；中 国则继续暂停对美24%的加征关税一年、保留10%税率，并同步暂停部分港口费政策。 乍一看，这像是一场"互相示好"的姿态，但仔细分析，会发现——这更像是一次战术性的"喘息"，一场 从硬对抗转向精细博弈的调整。 特朗普二次上台后，中美贸易摩擦一路升级。美国动辄以"国家安全"为由，对中国商品加重税，限制进 入；中国则以对等措施回击，甚至加强了关键资源的出口管控。但长期对抗下来，双方都发现：这场消 耗战，成本太高。 对美国而言，通胀高企、供应链混乱，制造业原料成本大幅上升。大家心里都清楚，关税不是打击中国 的武器，而是惩罚美国消费者的税。对中国而言，出口和航运确实受到一定压力，尤其在全球需求疲软 的大背景下，维持贸易链稳定比强硬反制更能守住基本盘。所以这次双暂停，是双方在高压博弈下 的"理性止损"：既不认输，也不激化，先稳一稳再说。 表面上看，中方似乎"放松"了对美出口限制，但实质上，是从"硬封锁"转向了"可控放行+动态监管"。 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Indicators - In October, the manufacturing PMI recorded 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from September's 49.8%, indicating continued pressure on the macro economy with weak manufacturing sentiment [2] - The CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in September, while the PPI fell by 2.3%, showing a narrowing decline compared to August [2] Group 2: A-Share Market Performance - A-shares experienced a mixed performance in October, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.85% and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 1.10% [3] - The coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals sectors saw gains exceeding 5%, while electronics, automotive, beauty care, and media sectors declined by over 3% [3] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed a mixed performance in October, with medium to long-term government bond yields declining, while short-term yields increased slightly [4] - The overall return of the bond market, as reflected by the China Bond Index, rose by 0.73% in October [4] Group 4: Global Economic Performance - The US Markit Composite PMI rose to 54.8 in October, up 1.2 percentage points from September, indicating expansion [5] - Major overseas stock indices mostly rose in October, with the Nikkei 225 and S&P 500 showing average gains of 3.92% and 2.27%, respectively [5] Group 5: Fund Performance - The Morningstar China Open-End Fund Index recorded a decline of 0.87% in October, with equity funds showing a 1.62% drop [13] - Fixed income funds generally performed well, with the Morningstar China Bond Index rising by 0.40% [13] Group 6: QDII Fund Performance - Global emerging market equity and bond mixed funds and US equity funds recorded average returns of 7.60% and 3.27%, respectively, benefiting from strong overseas market performance [17]

Global Economic Outlook - Global economic momentum faces challenges in the first half of 2026 due to US-China trade tensions, tariff pressures, and weak demand [4] - Economic recovery is expected in the second half of 2026 with monetary and fiscal policy easing, such as the US's "dual easing" and fiscal stimulus in Europe and Japan [4] - Major risks include asynchronous economic and policy cycles across countries, potentially leading to asset price volatility [4] Performance of Major Economies - The US economy relies on AI-related sectors, but short-term productivity gains from AI are limited; tariffs have raised inflation (effective tariff rate at 12.6%), suppressing consumption and investment [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times in 2026 (to 3.25%-3.5%), with gradual improvement in the labor market as the economy rebounds [4] - Europe has inflation nearing the 2% target with neutral monetary policy, while Japan continues normalizing its monetary policy, with rates potentially rising to 1.25% by the end of 2026 [4] Asset Performance - US Treasury yields may dip in the short term but could rise again due to debt pressures; the dollar remains stable, and US stocks (S&P 500 expected to reach 7500 points) and European stocks have upside potential [4] China Economic Outlook Growth Momentum - China's GDP growth is projected at around 5% for 2025, but significant year-on-year pressure is expected in Q4; 2026 GDP is forecasted to decline to 4.5% due to reduced export contributions and slight deceleration in consumption [4] - The outlook for 2027 may improve slightly due to export recovery and narrowing declines in real estate [4] Key Sector Analysis - Real Estate: The down cycle continues with inventory-sales ratios at 25-30 months (normal is 15 months), leading to negative wealth effects from falling prices; policies should focus on lowering mortgage rates, accelerating inventory reduction, and promoting household registration reforms [4] - Consumption: 2025 H1 may see a boost from "trade-in" subsidies, but 2026 faces pressures from moderate income growth and negative wealth effects from housing prices; social security reforms are needed to enhance consumer confidence [4] - Investment: Manufacturing and infrastructure investments may have overshot in H2 2025; a slight recovery is expected in 2026, but growth will remain in low single digits [4] - Exports: 2025 exports may grow by 5.4%, but exports to the US could drop by 26%; 2026 may see a reversal in US exports while non-US market growth slows [4] Inflation and Exchange Rates - Inflation: Deflationary pressures are easing, with CPI expected to rise from 0% to 0.4% in 2026, and PPI narrowing from -2.7% to below -1% [4] - Exchange Rate: The RMB is expected to be strong in the short term, with overall stability and two-way fluctuations anticipated in 2026 [4] Policy Expectations - Monetary Policy: A potential 20 basis point rate cut in 2026 (to 1.2%), with limited future space due to the need to balance bank interest margins [4] - Fiscal Policy: Broad fiscal impulse around 1 percentage point, focusing on special bonds and policy financial tools [4] - Credit: Social financing growth may decline from 8.4% to 8%, with macro leverage continuing to rise [4]

Export Performance - In October, China's exports decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, a significant drop of 9.4 percentage points from the previous month, and below the Wind consensus expectation of 3.1%[1] - The export decline is attributed to a high base effect and weakening external demand, with the new export orders PMI falling to 45.9, down nearly 2 percentage points from last month[1] - Exports to the EU, Japan, and South Korea showed significant declines, with exports to Japan down 5.7% and to South Korea down 13.0%[2][3] Product Categories - Labor-intensive products saw a sharp decline, with exports of bags, textiles, and footwear down by 25.7%, 16.0%, and 21.0% respectively, collectively dragging down exports by approximately 2.1 percentage points[3][4] - High-tech products, however, supported export growth, with integrated circuits and automobiles growing by 26.9% and 34.0% respectively, contributing 5.1 percentage points to overall export performance[4][5] Import Trends - Imports grew by only 1.0% year-on-year in October, a decrease of 6.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a clear structural divergence[5] - Agricultural imports remained resilient, with a 7.0% increase, particularly driven by a 11.4% rise in soybean imports due to increased procurement from Brazil[5][6] - Energy and machinery imports faced declines, with coal and crude oil imports down by 27.5% and 0.3% respectively, reflecting ongoing price pressures[5][6] Market Outlook - Despite the short-term pressures on exports, structural resilience remains, particularly from non-US markets like ASEAN and Africa, which continue to support export growth[6] - The easing of US-China trade tensions may provide a temporary boost to exports, while high base effects and order depletion could pose challenges in the fourth quarter[6][7] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected changes in overseas policies and slower-than-expected global economic recovery, which could further impact export performance[7][8]

Group 1 - In Q3 2025, Chinese companies are navigating a challenging external environment while finding some certainty in the domestic market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 12.73% to reach a nearly ten-year high [1][3] - The BSI (China Industry Economic Prosperity Index) for Q3 shows a stable industrial prosperity index at 54, with a slight increase in expected operating conditions [1][3] - Companies are adopting a cautious approach, with a focus on production and inventory adjustments, indicating a "preparation-based recovery" strategy [1][5] Group 2 - As of October, the external environment is shifting, with market pricing for external demand uncertainty beginning to decline, while the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological self-reliance and domestic demand expansion [2][9] - The investment sentiment is cautious, with the investment timing diffusion index dropping to 48, yet the proportion of companies making fixed asset investments has increased [5][9] - The overall sentiment reflects a balance between stable operations, slightly improved expectations, and cautious investment actions, indicating a gradual recovery rather than a robust upturn [5][10] Group 3 - The impact of the US-China trade issues is evident, with companies reporting a shift in their perceptions of external demand and pricing dynamics, leading to a more manageable view of risks [6][7] - The outlook for Q4 suggests a potential transition from a "preparation-based recovery" to a "structural start," driven by improved external conditions and supportive monetary policy [8][9] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" provides clearer long-term guidance for companies, focusing on efficiency, high-end transformation, and sustainable demand [9][10]

Group 1 - The U.S. has initiated a new Section 301 investigation against China, signaling a readiness to escalate trade tensions [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen indicated that if China continues to restrict rare earth exports, the U.S. may consider imposing additional tariffs, reflecting a more aggressive stance in U.S.-China trade relations [1] - The reactivation of the Section 301 investigation serves as a tool for the U.S. to exert pressure on China and regain a dominant position in trade negotiations [1][3] Group 2 - China plays a crucial role in the international supply chain, particularly in the rare earth sector, holding a significant share of global production capacity [3] - The U.S. has been applying pressure on China to fully open its rare earth supply while simultaneously imposing tariffs and trade restrictions, showcasing a double standard in its approach [5] - The differing values between the U.S. and China regarding trade partnerships contribute to ongoing friction, with the U.S. seeking dominance and China advocating for equality and mutual benefit [5] Group 3 - The trade friction between the U.S. and China is far from over and may escalate at any moment, necessitating a cautious approach to protect national interests [7] - China should remain vigilant and rational in response to U.S. threats, assessing its own strengths and leveraging strategic resources like rare earths while monitoring international developments [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recommended core allocation order for November is A-shares > US stocks > Gold > Convertible bonds > Chinese bonds > US bonds [1]. - Event shocks are the core clues for global large - scale asset trading. The Sino - US trade friction has temporarily ended, but the game between expected and actual negotiation results may continue. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in October, but internal differences among Fed officials on the subsequent monetary policy path exceed market expectations. The lack of economic data due to the US government shutdown and the dilemma of balancing inflation and the labor market pose a decision - making dilemma for the Fed. The market's continuous pre - emptive trading on interest rate cuts since August has led to a divergence in interest rate cut expectations, which may trigger adjustments in interest - rate - sensitive assets such as US bonds and gold, and these adjustments may mean more cost - effective allocation opportunities [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Macro Trading Main Line - **Sino - US Trade Friction Repeated**: The Sino - US trade friction heated up due to disputes over ship charging policies and rare earth export control policies. After a series of confrontations, both sides released signals of easing. The Sino - US leaders' meeting on October 30 led to the suspension of relevant export control and investigation measures for one year, and the cancellation of a 10% fentanyl tariff. The global risk - aversion sentiment first rose and then fell, affecting large - scale asset prices. Understanding market expectations is the key to grasping event - shock market trends [11][12][13]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Cut Expectation Changes**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected on October 30, but there was a rare three - way divergence in voting. Powell indicated that a December interest rate cut is not certain. The lack of major economic data due to the US government shutdown makes the Fed's decision - making difficult. The market's relatively consistent expectation of interest rate cuts has begun to show divergence, which is reflected in the reversal of the US bond yield and the adjustment of gold prices. The end time of the US government shutdown is a key factor affecting the December interest rate cut decision, and the divergence may mean better trading opportunities [24][25][28]. 3.2 Monthly Asset Performance Review - **Equity**: In October, Japanese stocks were the strongest, and Hong Kong stocks were the weakest, with the overall performance being Japanese stocks > US stocks > A - shares > Hong Kong stocks. A - shares: The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4000 points in October but faced difficulties in further short - term breakthroughs. The small - cap stocks performed well, and the market embraced dividend - low - volatility sectors while technology - growth sectors faced pressure. US stocks: They were mixed, but technology stocks showed strong momentum, with a short - term inflection point after the release of technology stocks' third - quarter reports and the Fed's FOMC meeting. Japanese stocks: The Nikkei 225 index rose 16.64% in October, driven by factors such as postponed interest rate hikes, "Takamachi Sanae trading" expectations, and the depreciation of the yen. Hong Kong stocks: They rose and then retreated, and the Hang Seng Technology Index significantly underperformed A - share technology stocks [35][40][43]. - **Bonds**: Except for Japanese bonds, the yields of major national government bonds in the world declined to varying degrees in October. Chinese bonds: The yield fluctuated and strengthened, mainly affected by stock market adjustments, Sino - US tariff games, and the central bank's resumption of buying and selling government bonds. US bonds: The yield first declined and then rose, with the US government's credit crisis, Sino - US friction, and the game on the December interest rate cut expectation as key variables. Japanese bonds: They weakened slightly after the "Takamachi Sanae trading" in October, with the expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies offsetting each other, and the government bond curve first steepened and then flattened [56][63][73]. - **Commodities**: Precious metals such as gold and silver first rose and then significantly adjusted in October, driven by factors such as cooling sentiment, over - valuation, and the rebound of the US dollar index. The prices of black - series commodities and new - energy materials showed limited upward momentum. Black - series commodities: Rebar prices remained low due to weak real estate and infrastructure, while coking coal and coke rose slightly due to anti - involution policies. New - energy materials: The prices of lithium carbonate and polysilicon fluctuated significantly with changes in expectations of anti - involution policies [75][86]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index strengthened in October, and the US dollar and US bonds continued to deviate. The strengthening of the US dollar index was mainly due to the weakening of overseas currencies such as the euro and the yen. The RMB continued to appreciate slightly in October, affected by factors such as the narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread, better - than - expected export data, and strong stock index performance [89][93]. 3.3 Monthly Macro Events Overview - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was successfully held from October 20 to 23, 2025, and the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" was officially announced on October 28, providing a direction for future five - year development [101]. - Takamachi Sanae was elected as the Prime Minister of Japan on October 21. The "Takamachi Sanae trading" heated up, driving the Japanese stock market to rise continuously in October, with the Nikkei 225 index rising 16.64% in a single month, while the yen exchange rate was significantly under pressure [102]. - Global major central banks held interest rate meetings in the last week of October. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but there was a large divergence among officials on the December interest rate cut decision. The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the sixth consecutive time, and two policy committee members opposed it. The European Central Bank also remained on hold for the third consecutive time, maintaining the deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and lending facility rate unchanged [104][106][107].