（来源：经济参考报） 2025年，面对外部环境的冲击，在总量迈上新台阶的同时，我国经济展现出"向新而行"的鲜明特征，经 济新动能不断发展壮大。在这一背景下，近期不少外资机构纷纷"唱多"中国经济和中国资产。业内人士 指出，2026年A股上市公司的盈利将迎来拐点，这也将支持权益市场延续"稳进"趋势。 外资机构看多中国资产 日前发布的2025年国民经济运行情况显示，我国国民经济顶住多重压力保持稳中有进发展态势，高质量 发展取得新成效。国内生产总值首次跃上140万亿元新台阶，比上年增长5.0%。同时，我国科技硬实力 不断跃升。2025年，全社会研究与试验发展经费投入达到39262亿元，已经多年稳居世界第二位。2025 年，规模以上装备制造业、高技术制造业增加值占规模以上工业增加值的比重分别达到36.8%和 17.1%。这一份出色的"答卷"，也进一步增强了外界对于中国经济的信心。近期，不少外资机构纷纷上 调中国经济增长预期，并表示看好中国经济的巨大潜力与韧性，看好中国资产价格。 从企业盈利的角度来看，华安证券表示，A股上市公司在2026年四个季度的单季度盈利规模都有望创 2020年以来的新高。高盈利规模为估值消化和行情 ...

Group 1 - US stocks experienced a mixed performance as investors processed two days of gains attributed to easing geopolitical tensions [1] - Market focus has shifted towards corporate earnings and the upcoming Federal Reserve decision [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, policy releases positive signals, but corporate earnings haven't improved significantly. Be cautious about the short - term rebound of stock indices. The US - EU trade tension eases, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is maintained. However, due to uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine and Iran situations, beware of profit - taking pressure after the rapid rise of gold [38]. - In the medium - to long - term, the valuation of stock indices will still be dragged down by the decline in corporate earnings growth at the molecular end. The support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, including the intensification of domestic counter - cyclical adjustment policies and the easing of international trade situations. Stock indices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. The US tax - cut policy will gradually stimulate the economy, narrowing the space for the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates. In this case, gold may face a deep adjustment [38]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Macroeconomic Data - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year, achieving the annual development target. From January to December, fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, industrial added value increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year, indicating weak endogenous economic growth and insufficient demand as the main contradiction [6]. 3.2 Stock Index Fundamental Data - In late December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of broad money supply M2 was 8.5% (previous value 8%), and M1 was 3.8% (previous value 4.9%). The growth rate slowed down for three consecutive months, and the gap between M1 and M2 further widened [19]. - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose to 26985.57 billion yuan, reaching a new high. The central bank conducted 1181 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net injection of 229.5 billion yuan [21]. 3.3 Gold Fundamental Data - In the third quarter of the US, real GDP increased by 4.4% quarter - on - quarter, and the core PCE price index in November increased by 2.8% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. It shows that the US economy is slowly recovering, but inflation remains high [24]. - The growth of Shanghai gold futures warehouse receipts and inventory slowed down, and COMEX gold inventory in New York decreased slightly, indicating a relief of delivery pressure [37]. 3.4 Strategy Recommendation - In 2025, China's economic recovery foundation is not solid. The government has strengthened counter - cyclical adjustment policies. Although there are positive policy signals, corporate earnings haven't improved significantly, and stock indices may fluctuate in the short term. The easing of US - EU trade tensions and the maintenance of the Federal Reserve's independence may lead to a rebound in the US dollar index. Due to uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine and Iran situations, gold has risen rapidly and reached a new high [38].

Group 1 - The market environment is currently unfavorable for buying risk assets, especially with a high valuation in US stocks and a significant number of bullish investors compared to bearish ones [1] - Despite recent market volatility, Wall Street strategists believe the foundation for continued market growth remains solid, citing historical resilience of risk assets during geopolitical crises [1][2] - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant drop of 2.1%, marking its largest single-day decline in October, with the VIX index surpassing the 20 mark, indicating increased market volatility [3] Group 2 - Corporate earnings are expected to support bullish sentiment, with projections of approximately 9% growth in S&P 500 earnings for Q4 of the previous year and double-digit growth anticipated in 2026 [2] - Approximately 70% of S&P 500 constituents are trading above their 200-day moving average, and the Russell 2000 index has reached a historical high, indicating strong market performance [2] - 73% of companies reporting earnings in the first week of the earnings season exceeded analyst expectations, which is above the historical average of 68% [3] Group 3 - The potential for President Trump to backtrack on aggressive policies could lead to market stabilization, as seen in previous instances where threats of tariffs were retracted shortly after being announced [4] - Analysts maintain a bullish stance on the stock market while acknowledging the potential for increased volatility due to aggressive government policies [5] - Strong macroeconomic fundamentals, improving earnings growth, and a trend towards easing trade tensions are cited as reasons to remain optimistic about the market outlook [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the policy side releases positive signals again, but corporate earnings have not significantly improved, so the stock index may need adjustment after continuous rise; the gold market is in high - level oscillation due to the game around the Fed's monetary policy independence and the Iran situation, waiting for a direction [31][32] - In the medium to long term, the valuation of the stock index will be dragged down by the decline in corporate earnings growth at the molecular end, and the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, so the stock index will maintain a wide - range oscillation; the US tax - cut policy will gradually stimulate the economy, the Fed's room for further interest rate cuts will narrow, and gold may face a deep adjustment [32] Summary by Relevant Catalog Macroeconomic Data - In December 2025, China's CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year (previous value 0.7%), PPI fell 1.9% year - on - year with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points. Imports increased 5.7% and exports increased 6.6% year - on - year, with the growth rates accelerating by 3.8 and 0.7 percentage points respectively. Industrial deflation pressure has been relieved [6] - In the US, in December 2025, the number of new non - farm payrolls was 50,000, the unemployment rate dropped from 4.6% to 4.4%, and CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year with the same increase as last month, indicating a slow recovery in the labor market but still high inflation [19] Stock Index Fundamental Data - In late December 2025, China's broad money supply M2 increased 8.5% year - on - year (previous value 8%), M1 increased 3.8% year - on - year (previous value 4.9%) with the growth rate slowing for three consecutive months, and the gap between M1 and M2 widened [14] - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose to 267.3143 billion yuan, a record high. The central bank conducted 951.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 900 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net injection of 1712.8 billion yuan [16] Gold Fundamental Data - The growth of Shanghai gold futures warehouse receipts and inventory has slowed down, and the COMEX gold inventory in New York has decreased slightly, indicating a relief of delivery pressure [29] Strategy Recommendation - The effects of the "anti - involution" and elimination of backward production capacity policies are gradually emerging. Commodity prices have risen, industrial deflation pressure has been relieved, and the profit of the upstream raw material processing industry is expected to improve [31] - Although corporate earnings have not significantly improved, the central bank's measures may boost risk appetite. After the continuous rise of the stock index, attention should be paid to the callback risk [31] - The US labor market is slowly recovering, but inflation risk remains. The Fed officials think there is no need for further interest rate cuts in the short term. The gold market is in high - level oscillation and may face a directional choice [31] Next Week's Focus - Important data such as China's December fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and consumer retail [33]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese stocks are expected to maintain strong performance for the remainder of the year, driven by relatively low valuations, RMB appreciation, and favorable policies, as well as geopolitical factors prompting global investors to seek exposure to China as a hedge against risks in U.S. assets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 14, the CSI 300 index has risen approximately 2.4% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Index has increased about 5.3%, both outperforming the S&P 500 index's gain of around 1.2% during the same period [1]. - In 2025, the CSI 300 index and the Hang Seng Index rose by 18% and 28%, respectively, compared to a 16% increase in the S&P 500 index [1]. Group 2: Valuation and Future Outlook - Chinese stocks are currently valued at historical median levels, indicating they are "not cheap, but not expensive," with potential for further price increases if corporate earnings recover as expected [2]. - Tiger Securities projects that the average annual return for U.S. stocks will decline to a range of 3% to 5% over the next five to seven years due to factors such as high valuations and persistent inflation risks [2]. - In contrast, Tiger Securities is more optimistic about the Chinese stock market, setting a target price of 30,000 for the Hang Seng Index by the end of 2026, an 11% increase from current levels, and a target of 5,000 for the Shanghai Composite Index, a 21% increase [2]. Group 3: Institutional Support - Several international investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and UBS, have recently expressed bullish views on Chinese stocks, citing attractive valuations, strong industry policy support, and optimistic corporate earnings outlooks [2]. - Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the CSI 300 index to 5,200, a 9% increase from the recent closing price, and upgraded its earnings growth forecast for Chinese companies from 4% in 2025 to 14% in 2026 and 2027, driven by factors such as AI monetization and policy stimulus [2]. - UBS noted that global investors are increasingly viewing Chinese assets as a safe haven against the high valuations and rising policy uncertainties in the U.S. market [2][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short - term, driven by the resonance of capital and fundamental factors. In the long - term, the stock index in 2026 is expected to continue the upward trend, supported by continuous policy efforts, moderate inflation recovery, and capital market reform policies [3]. - It is recommended that investors opportunistically establish long positions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Impacts**: - Economic and corporate profits: Inflation is moderately rising, with CPI and PPI showing positive trends, which is slightly positive for the stock index [3]. - Macro - policies: The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan of national subsidy funds in 2026 have been issued, with subsidy policies for various consumer goods, which is slightly positive [3]. - Overseas factors: The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January 2026 has significantly decreased, which is slightly negative [3]. - Liquidity: Post - holiday market trading volume has significantly expanded, with sufficient funds promoting a strong rise in the stock index, which is positive [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint and Strategy**: - Investment view: Opportunistically go long in the short - term and continue to be bullish on the stock index in 2026 [3]. - Trading strategy: Opportunistically go long in the single - side trading, and pay attention to overseas geopolitical factors [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 2.79% to 4758.9; the Shanghai 50 rose 3.4% to 3134.3; the CSI 500 rose 7.92% to 8056.7; the CSI 1000 rose 7.03% to 8129.2 [5]. - **Futures Performance**: The IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts of the corresponding indexes also showed varying degrees of increase [6]. - **Industry Performance**: Among the Shenwan primary industry indexes, the comprehensive, national defense and military industry, media, non - ferrous metals, and computer industries led the gains, while only the banking industry declined [7]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased to varying degrees [11]. - **Spread Performance**: The spreads between different indexes and different contract months of futures showed different levels of premium or discount [13]. 3.3 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: This week (January 5 - 9), the central bank conducted 102.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1221.4 billion yuan. Next week, there will be 138.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 600 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase maturing [24]. - **Market Liquidity Indicators**: As of January 8, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 2612.22 billion yuan, an increase of 79.51 billion yuan from the previous week. The financing purchase amount accounted for 12.4% of the total market trading volume, at the 98.2% quantile level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week increased by 652.17 billion yuan compared with the previous week [30]. 3.4 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamental and Corporate Profits - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In December 2025, China's economic indicators showed different trends, such as an increase in GDP, changes in industrial added value, investment, consumption, and employment data [33]. - **Industry - Specific Indicators**: Different industries such as real estate, consumption, manufacturing, and infrastructure construction investment showed different development trends [35][37][38][39]. - **PMI Indicators**: In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI both showed positive changes, indicating an improvement in the economic situation [41]. - **Corporate Profit Indicators**: The profitability indicators of major broad - based indexes and Shenwan primary industry indexes showed different levels of performance [46][47]. 3.5 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driving - **Macro - policy Trends**: A series of policies have been introduced, including more active fiscal policies, moderately loose monetary policies, and policies to support housing consumption and promote consumption [51][52][53]. 3.6 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In December 2024, the US manufacturing PMI decreased, the non - manufacturing PMI increased, the unemployment rate decreased, and the number of new non - farm payrolls decreased. The PCE and CPI also showed different trends [64][66][67]. - **Trump Team's Actions**: Trump's team has announced a series of tariff policies, which have had a certain impact on international trade relations [73][75][77][79]. 3.7 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Valuation - **Index Valuation**: As of January 9, 2026, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.4 times, 12 times, 36.4 times, and 49.4 times respectively, at different quantile levels since October 2014 [82]. - **Sector Valuation**: Different sectors showed different levels of price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, and their corresponding historical quantile levels [87].

Core Insights - U.S. household wealth has reached a record high, driven by a significant increase in stock market value and a decline in the real estate market [1] Group 1: Household Wealth - Household net worth increased by nearly $6.1 trillion, reaching $181.6 trillion [1] - The value of stocks held by Americans rose by $5.5 trillion [1] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose to a record high in the third quarter, contributing to the wealth growth of American investors [1] - Optimism surrounding artificial intelligence, expectations of interest rate cuts, and strong corporate earnings have boosted stock prices [1]

Core Insights - U.S. household wealth reached a record high of $181.6 trillion in Q3, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of nearly $6.1 trillion [1] - The value of stocks held by Americans increased by $5.5 trillion, driven by a rising S&P 500 index and positive sentiment around artificial intelligence, interest rate cuts, and strong corporate earnings [1] - The report indicated a decline in the value of real estate holdings by $287 billion, reflecting a sluggish real estate market [1] Financial Metrics - Consumer borrowing, including mortgages, saw an annualized growth rate of 4.1%, the highest since 2022 [1] - Corporate debt levels remained stable with an annualized growth rate of 3.93% [1] - State and local government debt grew at a rate of 5.5%, while federal debt increased by 15.5%, marking the highest growth rate since the pandemic [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of tariffs imposed by President Trump, which could significantly impact trade policy and the U.S. fiscal situation [1] - The ruling will focus on whether the Trump administration had the authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and if the government must refund tariffs if deemed illegal [1] - Treasury Secretary Yellen anticipates a compromise ruling, suggesting that the government could still collect tariffs at similar levels even if it loses the case [1] Group 2 - If the tariffs are invalidated, it could negatively affect U.S. industrial repatriation plans and fiscal health, potentially raising interest rates, while benefiting corporate profits by lowering input costs [2] - The probability of the Supreme Court supporting the current tariff policy is only 28%, indicating a strong expectation of a ruling against the tariffs [2] - The Treasury Department projects tariff revenues of approximately $195 billion for FY2025 and $62 billion for FY2026 to date [2] Group 3 - The upcoming ruling is seen as a significant test for U.S. equity and bond markets, with potential long-term uncertainty if tariffs are overturned [3] - Analysts predict that if tariffs are lifted, corporate profit margins may increase, boosting the stock market, while complicating the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3] - A potential economic stimulus from halting tariffs could exacerbate the government's budget deficit, putting pressure on U.S. debt [3] Group 4 - Wells Fargo's chief equity strategist forecasts a 2.4% increase in EBITDA for S&P 500 companies in 2026 if the Supreme Court overturns the tariff policy, likely leading to higher stock prices [4] - Companies heavily reliant on imported goods, such as apparel and toy manufacturers, are expected to benefit the most from tariff removal [5] - Financial institutions may also gain from increased consumer spending, along with industrial manufacturing and transportation sectors benefiting from potential economic boosts [5] Group 5 - Conversely, sectors benefiting from trade protectionism, such as materials and commodities, may underperform if tariffs are lifted [6] - Bond traders are preparing for market volatility, with U.S. Treasury bonds having risen over 6% last year, marking the best performance since 2020 [6] - The removal of tariffs could reignite fiscal concerns, leading to a rise in long-term yields, although the impact is expected to be limited as the Trump administration may seek alternative legal avenues to restore most tariffs [6]