今年以来，白银价格大幅上涨，主要受到三大核心因素驱动：一是全球白银市场长期存在供应缺口，显 性库存持续下降至危险水平；二是美国关税政策引发市场对实物供应的担忧，加剧库存转移与挤仓压 力；三是美联储进入降息周期，提升市场流动性及风险偏好，强化了白银的金融属性。 值得注意的是，明年年初彭博商品指数和标普高盛商品指数调参可能会带来被动管理资金的抛压，预计 分别占黄金和白银总持仓的2.6%和8.6%。虽然绝对规模上黄金卖盘（约50亿美元）大于白银卖盘（约 40亿美元），但是相较黄金的市场体量而言，白银市场体量相对偏低，受调参的影响预计会大于黄金。 中期来看，白银的价格锚依然是黄金。在全球依然处于降息周期以及逆全球化暗流涌动的宏观背景下， 贵金属板块整体上行趋势有望延续。在此周期中，白银的价格波动幅度通常大于黄金，往往具备更高的 配置收益潜力，这也意味着白银可能面临比黄金更大的短期回撤风险。因此，中期有意参与白银市场的 交易者需要有更强的风险承受能力和仓位管理意识。 长期来看，除投资需求外，白银的工业需求为价格提供了坚实的基本面支撑。光伏、新能源汽车、AI 算力服务器及5G通信等领域的用银量保持强劲增长，其中光伏产业的 ...

供需方面，2026年产能利用率两极分化加深，若达到供需平衡，国内光伏玻璃产能相较今年需减产 5000-20000吨。由于明年国内组件需求减弱，对应光伏玻璃需求下滑约23-36%；海外组件需求有望较今 年增长约60GW，总需求有望达到150GW，中金公司测算仍需要国内调配8800吨产能，以玻璃形态直销 海外。基于这种情况，中金公司认为，有海外客户基础的光伏玻璃企业仍能保持相对较好的开工率；而 产品出口能力有限的企业最终会因库存持续增加且无法转化为收入，使得生产经营维系压力增加，最终 导致现金流断裂，产能被动出清。 价格及成本方面，明年相较今年有望趋于稳定。今年2.0mm光伏玻璃含税均价12.59元/平方米，同比下 滑15.83%。中金公司认为，明年均价按照不得低于成本价销售的指引，全年有望维持在13-13.5元/平方 米。成本方面，明年整体存在小幅压降的空间，主要系重碱、超白石英砂供过于求，价格有小幅下调空 间，天然气价格平稳，澄清剂中锑用量逐步降低所致。 中金公司（601995）发布研究报告称，明年头部光伏玻璃企业利润率中枢有望上浮，而二线以下企业利 润存在继续下探的风险。国内方面，明年龙头玻璃企业国内盈利较 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic glass industry is facing a decline in demand, leading to increased inventory days and a drop in prices to 11.5 yuan/square meter, with four leading companies nearing breakeven profitability while others are deepening losses [2][3]. Supply and Demand - By 2026, the capacity utilization rate is expected to further polarize, requiring a reduction of 5,000 to 20,000 tons of domestic photovoltaic glass production to achieve supply-demand balance. Domestic demand for photovoltaic glass is projected to decline by approximately 23-36% due to weakened component demand [2][5]. - The total demand for photovoltaic glass is estimated to reach 150 GW, necessitating the allocation of 8,800 tons of capacity for direct sales overseas. Companies with overseas customer bases are expected to maintain relatively good operating rates, while those with limited export capabilities may face increased operational pressures and potential cash flow issues [2][5]. Price and Cost - The average price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass is expected to stabilize next year, with a projected annual average of 13-13.5 yuan/square meter, following a 15.83% year-on-year decline to 12.59 yuan/square meter this year. Cost reductions are anticipated due to oversupply of raw materials [2][30]. Profitability - Leading companies are expected to see an improvement in profit margins, while second-tier companies may continue to face downward pressure on profits. The net profit for leading companies is projected to remain above 3 yuan/square meter due to increased overseas shipments [3][5]. Industry Dynamics - The polarization of capacity utilization is deepening, with glass exports becoming a critical survival factor. Domestic photovoltaic glass demand is expected to decline significantly, while overseas demand is anticipated to grow, necessitating adjustments in domestic production [5][29]. - The industry is experiencing a significant increase in inventory days, with the average reaching 35.92 days by December, indicating a potential oversupply situation as domestic demand weakens [17][18]. Policy Impact - Recent policies have aimed to control the production capacity of photovoltaic glass, prohibiting new capacity additions and enforcing stricter regulations on pricing to prevent below-cost sales. This is expected to stabilize prices and reduce competitive pressures in the market [13][35][40].

南财智讯12月22日电，天洋新材公告，因光伏组件价格持续低位，组件厂开工意愿不足，导致光伏封装 胶膜行业需求不足，叠加市场竞争加剧，公司光伏胶膜业务持续亏损，经营承压。经审慎评估，公司决 定停止实施光伏封装胶膜项目，涉及控股子公司昆山天洋光伏、南通天洋光伏、海安天洋新材料及非募 投主体昆山天洋。停产自2025年12月董事会审议通过后实施。2024年度，光伏封装胶膜业务占公司营收 约48%，净利润亏损约2.4亿元，停产后将大幅减少对公司净利润的负面影响，提升盈利能力。公司热 熔胶、电子胶等其他业务板块营收占比52%，经营稳定，具备持续经营能力。后续公司将推进厂房和设 备的优化利用，并对剩余募集资金依规管理，择机投入新项目。 ...

公告编号:2025-157 证券简称:*ST 沐邦 江西沐郎高科服份有限公司 关于重大合同违约及风险提示的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 （来源：光伏见闻） 出来混，迟早要还的。那些账户仅有不到10亿货币资金，楞是打肿脸充胖子，动辄甩出数十亿电池扩产项目的跨界玩家，在行业洗牌的"照妖境"下 正不断露出原形。 如果说苏州环秀湖逐光向法院申请对棒杰股份启动预重组算个行业大雷的话，那么广西梧州市人民政府与*ST沐邦之间重大合同违约堪称是一晴天霹 雳，为那些积极扶持光伏产业的地方政府敲响了警钟。 证券代码:603398 重要内容提示: 的最新进展情况公告如下: ● 案件所处阶段:本案已进入"听证程序完成、等待最终行政决定"阶段。公 司已依法行使陈述、申辩及听证权利,梧州市人民政府已于2025年8月21日组织 听证会。截至本公告披露日,最终行政处理决定尚未作出,后续结果仍存在不确定 样 ● 公司所处的当事人地位:公司及控股子公司广西沐邦为本次行政处理及合同 履约争议的当事人,涉及被要求退还已获财政补助与扶持资金,并 ...

价格走势：强势突破，站稳新高 当前价格：据长江有色金属网 获悉，今日长江现货 1# 锡价报价 332,500-334,500 元 / 吨，均价 333,500 元 / 吨，较昨日上涨 8,000 元 / 吨 (+2.46%)，延续近期强势。 短期趋势：震荡上行通道确立，价格重心持续上移 技术特征：期货市场同步走强，沪锡主力合约 2601 今日高开高走，截至 10:15 报 334,220 元 / 吨，涨幅 2.63%，成交量放大，持仓量稳定，市场看涨情绪浓厚。宏观经济：美国11月非农数据虽显示就业增 长，但失业率上升，市场对美联储降息预期增强，美元指数弱势震荡，为锡价提供了一定支撑。全球经 济增长不确定性仍存，但国内扩大内需政策对金属需求形成潜在利好。与此同时，中国"双碳"战略及相 关稳增长政策持续发力，为新能源汽车等绿色产业的需求提供了坚实的长期支撑。然而，宏观利好仅 是"背景音乐"，真正的核心剧情由产业基本面书写。在供应端，一场"紧箍咒"正在全球主要产区同步收 紧：非洲刚果（金）的地缘冲突直接威胁物流命脉，东南亚印尼的政策收紧与缅甸复产的严重滞后，使 得全球超过五分之一的供应处于高度不确定状态。这恰逢全球 ...

张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 2025 年 12 月 18 日 工业硅：逢高做空思路 多晶硅：关注消息面影响 商 品 研 究 【宏观及行业新闻】 据外媒报道，土耳其太阳能电池板制造商 Alfa Solar 与总部位于德国的 Astronergy Europe（正泰 新能欧洲）合作，在土耳其建立一家综合性太阳能电池和硅片生产工厂。两家公司签署了一项合资协议，其 中规定该项目由 Astronergy Yüksek Teknoloji Enerji Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş.规划，该公司由 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,470 | 105 | 220 | -610 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 346,284 | 126,61 ...

➢ 摘要： 2025 年沪铝震荡上行，氧化铝则持续一路走弱。铸造铝合金自上市后行情走势基 本与沪铝同频。 2025 年产业链上游紧张态势有所缓解。矿石进口量增加，国内矿山生产扰动相对 有限。氧化铝产能开工率维持高位，且有多项新产能及复产产能陆续投放。然而，随 着氧化铝现货价格大幅下跌、利润显著收缩甚至陷入亏损，部分高成本产能已出现停 产检修。未来，停产产能与新投、复产产能之间的博弈将成为影响氧化铝价格的核心 因素。电解铝环节因成本下降、利润大幅提升，开工率随之上升，在产产能近乎满负 荷运行，预计 2026 年这一态势仍将延续。 下游加工行业开工率呈现明显分化：建筑型材、板带箔等传统领域表现平淡，而 线缆、合金及工业型材等领域则相对亮眼。终端需求中，新能源相关产业及电网建设 领域保持良好增长。预计 2026 年新能源汽车产销量增速可能随补贴退坡而放缓，但电 网建设在"十五五"新规划周期内仍将维持较高增长水平。库存方面则存在一定隐忧： 行业铸锭量持续偏低导致库存重心不断下移，低库存水平削弱了价格缓冲空间，这一 点从每逢交割临近时盘面资金的活跃度即可见一斑。 展望 2026 年，全球宏观环境的复杂性与严峻性仍将显著 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the tin price showed an overall upward - trending oscillation. In 2026, the tight supply situation at the mine end is expected to ease, with a likely front - tight and back - loose pattern. The smelting end's operating rate is expected to gradually recover, and processing fees may slightly rebound. The tin solder sector, which performed well in 2025, is expected to continue to grow in 2026, benefiting from the semiconductor industry. The tin price in 2026 is expected to remain strong, showing a trend of rising first and then falling with an overall upward - shifted center. The main operating range of Shanghai Tin is expected to be between 250,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME Tin is expected to be between 30,000 - 48,000 US dollars/ton [2][90][92]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 Tin Market Review 3.1.1 Long - term Tin Price Trend Review - Since 2011, the tin price has gone through eight stages: a continuous decline from the second half of 2011 to the end of 2015 due to global economic concerns; a sharp rise from the end of 2015 to the end of 2016 due to supply - side structural reforms; an oscillatory trend from early 2017 to April 2019 as supply exceeded demand; a continuous decline from April 2019 to March 2020 due to trade disputes and the COVID - 19 pandemic; a new high from April 2021 to March 2022 due to loose policies and supply - demand imbalance; a sharp fall from March to October 2022 due to Fed rate hikes; an oscillatory trend from November 2022 to March 2024 under the influence of supply - side disturbances and a falling US dollar index; and a strong rise and subsequent high - level oscillation from March 2024 to the present [10][11][13]. 3.1.2 2025 Tin Market Review - **Tin Futures Price Review**: The tin price in 2025 showed a pattern of rising first, then falling, and then rising again. In the first quarter, it rose due to tight mine - end supply. In mid - March, the civil unrest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo pushed up bullish sentiment. After the Tomb - sweeping Festival, there was a systemic risk, followed by a narrow - range oscillation. In September, the price rose again due to supply issues and the Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal tin smuggling [15]. - **Tin Spot and Premium/Discount**: In 2025, the domestic tin spot was at a discount, while the LME tin premium/discount hovered around 0 [19]. 3.2 Macro - analysis - In 2025, the eurozone economy was relatively sluggish, with controllable inflation and a loose European Central Bank. The US economy had some resilience, but its growth momentum weakened, and the risk of recession increased. The Chinese economy showed resilience, but faced deflationary pressure. In 2026, the inflation in Europe and the US is expected to gradually decline, and major central banks are likely to continue the rate - cut cycle. The US economy may see moderate growth, while the eurozone's growth may remain low. China's macro - economic policies are expected to be more proactive, and the inflation environment may gradually improve [20]. 3.3 Tin Market Supply Analysis 3.3.1 Tin Ore Supply May Be Front - tight and Back - loose - In 2025, there were many disruptions in tin ore supply, such as the suspension of mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the slow resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State. From 2025 - 2026, new projects are few, and the ore increment is limited. In 2026, the global tin ore production is expected to increase slightly by about 4,500 metal tons, reaching about 360,000 tons. China's tin ore production has been gradually decreasing in recent years, but showed a small increase in 2025. China's tin ore imports are expected to gradually increase in 2026. The tin ore price showed an upward - trending oscillation in 2025, and the processing fee was at a low level [24][25][26]. 3.3.2 Refined Tin Production Will Maintain Growth - In 2025, the domestic refined tin production of sample enterprises increased year - on - year. Overseas, there was a supply shortage in the first 9 months of 2025. In general, the tight mine - end supply in the past two years affected the smelting capacity. The smelting operating rate is expected to gradually rebound in 2026, with a slightly higher growth rate than in 2025. In 2025, the refined tin import window was mostly closed, and China became a net exporter of refined tin. The short - term import window is difficult to open [38][42][43]. 3.4 Tin Market Demand Analysis 3.4.1 Tin - plated Sheet Production Declined While Exports Increased - In 2024, China's tin - plated sheet production increased steadily. In 2025, it declined significantly due to the substitution of chrome - plated sheets and weak domestic demand. However, exports increased, mainly due to strong external demand and China's cost - advantage. But the future export situation may be affected by the substitution of new materials and trade - relief investigations [47][48]. 3.4.2 Lead - acid Battery Production Increased Significantly - In recent years, the rapid development of the e - bike, express delivery, and takeout industries supported the consumption of lead - acid batteries. In 2025, the production growth rate accelerated, but exports declined year - on - year [56]. 3.4.3 The Growth Cycle of Electronic Products May Be Near the End - In 2023, the downward cycle of electronic products turned around. In 2024, they showed positive growth. In 2025, the growth rate of computer and smartphone production slowed down. In 2026, the growth rate of production and sales of computers and mobile phones is expected to slow down but remain positive [60]. 3.4.4 Integrated Circuit Production Will Maintain Rapid Growth - Since 2024, China's integrated circuit production has increased significantly. The growth rate accelerated in the second half of the second quarter and then declined in the third - quarter off - season. With the recovery of the global semiconductor industry, the production and sales of integrated circuits are expected to maintain high - speed growth in the medium and long term [63]. 3.4.5 The Photovoltaic Industry Is in a Transition from the High - speed Development Stage - In 2024 and 2025, China's photovoltaic installed capacity increased significantly. However, the industry faces over - capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and capacity growth will be more orderly. The global new - installed photovoltaic capacity is expected to reach 665GW, and the new tin demand is expected to reach about 43,000 tons [66]. 3.4.6 The New - energy Vehicle Industry Maintains Growth - In 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. Due to the cost - advantage and policy support, the sales will continue to grow. In the long - term, the growth rate will slow down, but the marginal increment is still significant. In 2026, the production and sales growth rate is expected to be between 15 - 20% [71]. 3.5 Tin Inventory First Rose and Then Fell - In 2024, the inventories of the two major exchanges showed different trends. In 2025, the SHFE inventory first increased, then decreased, and then increased again. The LME inventory decreased first and then increased. As of December 1, the total inventory of the two exchanges was at a medium level. The LME tin premium/discount narrowed in 2025, and the import window was intermittently open [74][77]. 3.6 Global Refined Tin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Forecast - Since 2018, the global tin market has been in a supply - shortage situation for most months. In 2025, the supply was tight in the first half and loose in the second half, while demand continued to grow. In 2026, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand will also grow moderately, maintaining a tight - balance situation [80]. 3.7 Seasonal and Technical Analysis 3.7.1 Seasonal Analysis - Historically, the tin price is weakest in March, and the probability of decline is high in March, August, September, and October. It often performs strongly in January, July, and December. In 2025, the tin price showed a wide - range oscillation, with most months showing a decline except April [83]. 3.7.2 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line of the Shanghai Tin main contract, in March 2025, the price broke through the 270,000 - yuan mark and then fell back. In August, it accelerated its rise, filled the gap after the Tomb - sweeping Festival, and broke through the previous high of the year. In the short - term, the upward momentum is not exhausted, and it may approach the historical high in 2022 [87]. 3.8 LME Position Analysis - In the past three years, the tin price has maintained a wide - range oscillation. Investment funds generally held a net - long position, which increased significantly in the second half of 2025. Investment companies, credit institutions, and commercial enterprises held different positions. As of November 28, 2025, investment companies and credit institutions had a net - long position of 2,309 lots, investment funds had a net - long position of 5,002 lots, and commercial enterprises had a net - long position of - 6,339 lots [89]. 3.9 Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - In 2025, the tin price showed an upward - trending oscillation. In 2026, the supply at the mine end is expected to ease, the smelting operating rate may recover, and the processing fee may slightly rebound. The tin solder sector is expected to continue to grow. The tin price in 2026 is expected to be strong, showing a trend of rising first and then falling with an overall upward - shifted center. The main operating range of Shanghai Tin is expected to be between 250,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME Tin is expected to be between 30,000 - 48,000 US dollars/ton [90][92]. 3.10 Related Stocks - Stocks such as Yunnan Tin Industry Co., Ltd. (000960.SZ), Xingye Co., Ltd. (603928.SH), Yintai Gold Co., Ltd. (000975.SZ), and others are related to the tin industry. Their stock prices showed different monthly and annual growth rates [93].

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 估值方面，中证光伏产业指数最新PB为2.46倍，处在历史48.53%分位，仍具备一定的估值安全边 际，当前处在历史中枢附近，位置不高。交易拥挤度方面，截至2025年三季度末，主动权益基金在电力 设备行业的重仓持股比例为12.3%，环比有所提升，但相比此前最高21%，仍然属于偏低位置。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 2025年12月12日，A股三大指数涨跌不一，光伏ETF华夏（515370）上涨0.22%。资金面上，光伏 ETF华夏（515370）近期持续获资金布局，近10个交易日净流入超2.9亿元。 光伏ETF华夏（515370）跟踪中证光伏产业指数，涉及光伏产业链上、中、下游企业，包括硅片、 多晶硅、电池片、电缆、光伏玻璃、电池组件、逆变器、光伏支架和光伏电站等，能够更好的反映光伏 产业整体表现。 ...