中国银河证券表示，A股市场在临近年末关口震荡上行，呈现出"小躁动"行情，截至周五，上证指数录 得八连阳。同时，行情呈现出流动性驱动特征，市场量能明显放大，周五全A成交额突破2万亿元。短 期来看，市场结构特征有望延续，量能或是行情的关键信号。热点板块个股分歧有所加大，重点关注核 心标的。美元指数趋弱与年末结汇需求推动下，人民币汇率在周内升破7.0关口。人民币资产吸引力提 升，积极因素正在进一步积累。展望后市，关注政策预期与产业趋势的催化机会，春季躁动行情值得期 待。2026年来看，A股市场有望呈现出向上动能。 A股后市怎么走？看看机构怎么说。 沪指本周累计涨1.88%，深证成指涨3.53%，创业板指涨3.9%。A股后市怎么走？看看机构怎么说： ①中国银河证券：A股或迎接跨年"小躁动"行情 关注：1、AI投资与全球制造业复苏共振的工业资源品——铜、铝、锡、锂、原油及油运；2、具备全 球比较优势且周期底部确认的中国设备出口链——电网设备、储能、锂电、光伏、工程机械、商用车， 以及国内制造业底部反转品种——化工（印染、煤化工、农药、聚氨酯、钛白粉）、晶圆制造等；3、 抓住入境修复与居民增收叠加的消费回升通道——航空、 ...

东方证券：市场整体处于缩量整固期，上行力度明显不大，趋势性机会需等待积极信号 东方证券表示，综合来看，市场临近年底，整体处于缩量整固期，尽管短期股指初步形成反弹之势，但 上行力度明显不大，沪综指仍以围绕3900点震荡为主，趋势性机会需等待积极信号出现。 本文转载自"腾讯自选股"，智通财经编辑：冯秋怡。 继续看好AI投资与全球制造业复苏共振的工业资源品——铜、铝、锡、锂、原油及油运；二是抓住入 境修复与居民增收叠加的消费回升通道——航空、酒店、免税、食品饮料；三是受益于资本市场扩容与 长期资产端回报率见底的非银(保险、券商)；四是具备全球比较优势且周期底部确认的中国设备出口链 ——电网设备、储能、锂电、光伏、工程机械、商用车、照明，以及国内制造业底部反转品种——印 染、煤化工、农药、聚氨酯、钛白粉。 信达证券：春节前大概率仍有春季躁动行情，配置非银金融、电力设备、机械设备等 信达证券表示，战术上，牛市的基础依然坚实，年度上存在盈利改善和资金流入共振的可能性。战略 上，考虑到当前A股估值不低，强力稳增长预期下降，外围市场不确定性风险仍存，短期市场或处于跨 年行情启动前的调整期。2026年春节前大概率仍有春季躁动行 ...

根据机构汇编的数据，黄金ETF已连续五周出现资金流入。世界黄金协会的数据显示，今年除了5月， 这些基金的总持仓量每个月都在增长。与此同时，白银在最近几周受到需求激增以及主要交易中心供应 紧张和错位的提振。 黄金、白银后市怎么走？ 深圳商报·读创客户端记者 钟国斌 今年以来，国际黄金、白银价格频创历史新高。截至12月23日18时，COMEX黄金成功突破4500美元/盎 司整数关，年内累计劲升71%，盘中最高4530.80美元/盎司，再创历史新高。COMEX白银表现更为凌 厉，盘中最高升至70.155美元/盎司，年内涨幅高达138%，领跑贵金属市场。 回顾2025年，贵金属市场极度火爆。得益于全球央行购买热潮、美联储降息、避险需求升温等因素，截 至12月23日，今年黄金价格已累计上涨逾70%，而白银价格累计上涨逾137%。 黄金和白银都将创下1979年以来最大的年度涨幅，这主要得益于各国央行购买量的增加以及黄金ETF的 资金流入。 创元期货分析师何燚表示，回顾1970年以来已经发生的两轮贵金属牛市大周期，在驱动贵金属牛市的因 素没有缓解前，尤其是核心驱动因素没有缓解前，贵金属的牛市不会结束。他认为，黄金仍是202 ...

北京时间22日晚间，美股主要指数集体高开，截至23时左右，道指涨0.23%，纳指涨0.64%，标普涨0.49%。 美国科技7巨头普涨，英伟达上涨1.2%。特斯拉股价创历史新高，大涨3.38%，市值来到1.65万亿美元，最近120个交易日涨幅累计达57%。消息面上，据 智通财经，Matrix可再生能源公司与特斯拉签署协议，在英国合作开发电池储能项目。 | < W | 特斯拉(TESLA) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | TSLA.O | | | | 497.470 | 量 1450.1万 股本 33.26亿 市盈 326 | | 万得 盘口 | | 16.270 3.38% | 换 0.44% 市值 16545亿 市净 20.69 | | | | 盘中、五日 日K | 周K | 車名 | (0) | | 膏加 | 均价:492.985 | | | | 497.650 | --- | | 10 | | | | 2- 497.430 | 135 | | | | 9:49 497.500 | 200 | | | | 9:49 497.500 | 42 | | 481.200 | ...

北京时间22日晚间，美股主要指数集体高开，截至23时左右，道指涨0.23%，纳指涨0.64%，标普涨0.49%。 美国科技7巨头普涨，英伟达上涨1.2%。特斯拉股价创历史新高，大涨3.38%，市值来到1.65万亿美元，最近120个交易日涨幅累计达57%。消息面上，据 智通财经，Matrix可再生能源公司与特斯拉签署协议，在英国合作开发电池储能项目。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.4%，热门中概股多数上扬，奇富科技涨3.24%，携程网涨2.23%，创奇生物、拼多多、贝壳涨逾1.5%，网易、京东、哔哩哔哩 涨不足1%。 消息面上，高盛最新预测，中国股票在2026年料将延续涨势。 除了地缘政治局势等浅层因素，黄金和白银再创新高背后有着更深层次的推动力。 法国里昂商学院管理实践教授李徽徽对21世纪经济报道记者表示，金银同创新高，这不是单一的"避险"和"抗通胀"行情，而是宽松货币周期、高财政赤字 和全球制造业复苏这三股力量同向共振背景下的"产物"。他把黄金称为"货币信用的温度计"，近期上涨的核心动力来源于"主权信任的崩塌""去美元化的 加速"，主要有三层驱动因素。 一是信用与风险对冲：全球金融体系更碎片化后，黄金像"中立资 ...

Group 1 - The State Council emphasizes the need for all departments to align their actions with the central government's economic work requirements and policies for the upcoming year, enhancing responsibility and urgency in implementing specific plans [2] - The "Internet Platform Pricing Behavior Rules" have been issued, allowing platform operators to set their own prices while prohibiting unreasonable restrictions on pricing behavior [3] - The National Internet Information Office and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have taken action against 17 accounts involved in spreading rumors and illegal stock recommendations, highlighting the importance of maintaining market integrity [4] Group 2 - Fujian Province has introduced a financial support plan for technological innovation, aiming for a 10% annual growth rate in loans for technology-related industries from 2025 to 2027, and enhancing the quality of financial services [5] - Researchers at Shanghai Jiao Tong University have achieved a breakthrough in optical computing chips, which are expected to meet the high computational demands of deep neural networks and large-scale generative models [6] - Moore Threads has launched a new GPU architecture that supports large-scale intelligent computing clusters, with a 50% increase in computing density and a tenfold improvement in energy efficiency [7] Group 3 - China Shenhua plans to acquire 100% equity of Guoyuan Power and Inner Mongolia Construction Investment through a combination of A-share issuance and cash payment, with a total transaction value of 133.598 billion yuan [8] - The first L3-level autonomous driving license has been issued in Chongqing, marking a significant step towards the commercialization of L3 autonomous driving in China [9] Group 4 - U.S. stock markets saw collective gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.38%, Nasdaq up 1.31%, and S&P 500 up 0.88%, driven by strong performances from major tech stocks [10][11] - Elon Musk praised a performance featuring humanoid robots at a concert, indicating growing interest in robotics and AI applications in entertainment [12] Group 5 - Major brokerages have provided insights on market trends, with Citic Securities suggesting that industries benefiting from a strengthening yuan should be prioritized, while Shenyin Wanguo highlights the potential for a "spring surge" in the market [14][15] - Guotai Junan emphasizes the importance of embracing diverse investment narratives as the market prepares for 2026, focusing on sectors like AI, consumer recovery, and capital market expansion [16][19]

Group 1 - The market status indicates an increased correlation between the US and Chinese markets, with the 20-day rolling correlation of the CSI 300 and S&P 500 rising above the 90th percentile, reflecting a new normal of "overnight alignment and intraday reversal" [2][10][13] - The US core CPI has decreased to 2.6%, the lowest in three and a half years, while the unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, primarily due to increased labor participation and temporary unemployment, indicating a stable economic environment without significant inflationary pressures [2][10][13] - China's economic fundamentals show a combination of corporate profit bottoming out and a decline in domestic demand, which opens a window for further policy support [2][10][13] Group 2 - The AI industry chain is experiencing a divergence, with broader AI-related assets (copper, lithium, aluminum, energy storage, and electrical equipment) performing better than core AI assets (computing chips, optical modules, PCB) [3][24][25] - Investors are becoming less tolerant of the contradiction between aggressive capital expenditures and the lack of revenue growth in companies within the AI industry chain, leading to a negative correlation between stock performance and capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue [3][24][25] - Commodity prices for copper, aluminum, tin, and lithium carbonate have been rising since late October, driven by demand from AI investments, with near-term contracts for copper and tin outperforming longer-term contracts [3][24][25] Group 3 - The concept of "expanding domestic demand" is emphasized as a strategic move, with a focus on increasing consumer demand supported by income growth and effective investment [4][31][32] - The government plans to enhance the second distribution of income by increasing minimum pension standards and implementing childcare subsidies, while future efforts may focus on optimizing the first distribution through wage reforms [4][31][32] - Historical examples from Japan and the US illustrate that income growth leads to increased service and new-type consumption, suggesting that China's current income growth initiatives could similarly boost consumer spending [4][31][32] Group 4 - The current market environment, characterized by limited macro elasticity and increased industry differentiation, suggests a shift in investment strategy towards tangible demand and domestic policy benefits as the new focus for 2026 [5][42][43] - Recommendations include investing in industrial resource products (copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil) that benefit from AI investment and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors poised for recovery in consumer spending (airlines, hotels, duty-free, food and beverages) [5][42][43] - Non-bank financial institutions (insurance, brokerage) are expected to benefit from capital market expansion and a rebound in long-term asset returns, alongside opportunities in China's equipment export chain and manufacturing sectors [5][42][43]

Group 1: Market Status - The correlation between A-shares and U.S. stocks has increased, with the 20-day rolling correlation of the CSI 300 and S&P 500 rising to over 90% since November, indicating a new norm of "overnight same direction, intraday reverse" [2][11][45] - Both the U.S. and Chinese economies are in a phase of "limited upward elasticity and reduced downward risk," with the U.S. core CPI falling to 2.6%, the lowest in three and a half years, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% primarily due to increased labor participation and temporary unemployment [2][13][47] - The Chinese economy shows signs of a bottom in corporate profits, while domestic demand is weakening, creating a favorable environment for subsequent policy support [2][13][47] Group 2: AI Industry Chain - The investment in the AI industry chain is showing two notable characteristics: first, "pan-AI" assets (copper, lithium, aluminum, energy storage, and electrical equipment) are performing better than core AI assets (computing chips, optical modules, PCB) [2][18][52] - Investors are becoming less tolerant of the contradiction between aggressive capital expenditures and the lack of revenue growth in companies within the AI industry chain, as evidenced by the negative correlation between stock performance and capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue [2][18][52] - Commodity prices for copper, aluminum, tin, and lithium carbonate have been rising since late October, driven by supply-demand dynamics, with near-term contracts for copper and tin outperforming longer-term contracts [2][19][53] Group 3: Understanding "Expanding Domestic Demand" - The articles published in "Qiushi" magazine emphasize the importance of consumer demand as a primary focus for expanding domestic demand, highlighting the need for a complete domestic demand system [3][24][58] - The strategy includes enhancing secondary distribution to increase residents' net transfer income and optimizing primary distribution to improve labor income, with potential reforms in state-owned enterprises to guide wage adjustments [3][25][58] - Historical examples from Japan and the U.S. show that periods of rising resident income lead to increased service and new-type consumption, indicating that the current "income increase plan" may boost demand for service consumption and technology-driven durable goods [3][27][58] Group 4: Preparing for 2026 - The current market conditions, characterized by limited macro elasticity and increased industry differentiation, suggest a shift in investment strategy towards "physical demand-driven" and "domestic demand policy dividends" as more certain avenues for growth [2][39][40] - Recommendations include focusing on industrial resource products (copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation) that benefit from AI investment and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors like aviation, hotels, duty-free, and food and beverage that will benefit from increased consumer spending [2][32][39] - The non-bank financial sector (insurance, brokerage) is expected to benefit from capital market expansion and a bottoming out of long-term asset returns, alongside opportunities in China's equipment export chain and domestic manufacturing sectors [2][32][39]

国金证券研报表示，上周A股市场呈现缩量震荡格局，交易情绪明显降温，新的变化正在出现，未来结 构上的信号可能比总量更加清晰：国内方面，金融市场非银机构的约束放松将进一步与全A的盈利回升 形成正向循环；而经济上生产出口与全球制造业复苏的趋势形成共振的概率在增加。海外方面，由于市 场阶段对美联储降息定价充分，短期美元可能有所反弹从而对风险资产带来一定压力；但往后看，就业 市场疲软依旧是美国当下最关键的问题，降息节奏的扰动不会影响长期降息趋势，在这一背景下制造业 回升所带来的全球实物消耗的增长是确定性机会。 ...

【报告导读】本周A股缩量震荡，但也有新的变化。非银机构的约束放松将进一步与全A的盈利回升形成正向循环；而经济上生产出口与全球制造业复苏 的趋势形成共振的概率在增加。短期美元可能有所反弹从而对风险资产带来一定压力；但不影响长期降息趋势，制造业回升所带来的全球实物消耗的增长 是确定性机会。 Summary 摘要 1.A股的"静默"与商品的"躁动" 本周A股市场呈现出典型的缩量特征，市场交易热度显著降温，换手率、两融活跃度及期权隐含波动率均降至阶段低位。这一现象的核心在于，本周国内 缺少新的经济或金融数据，叠加即将召开12月关键政策会议，市场缺乏明确的宏观指引。然而，A股的"静默"与商品市场的"躁动"形成鲜明对比。以白 银、铜为代表的金属价格强势上涨，其深层次逻辑在于，全球大宗商品被长期压低的库存水平，本身体现的是产业链对于政策环境和产业发展进入相对稳 态的适应性。但是，当全球政策环境改变叠加数据中心、电动化等新兴产业正在深刻改变经济结构，库存行为的变化将会较大程度挑战静态的供需视角的 定价。 2.金融市场的变化：非银资金扩容与资本回报企稳回升的共振 本周金融市场出现了一些变化：金监局下调保险公司相关业务风险因子， ...