Core Viewpoint - The current market is not suitable for "lazy" static allocation, and while opportunities exist in 2026, the methods of investment will be increasingly tested [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Multiple foreign institutions have indicated that as overseas market volatility increases, more investors are exploring diversified and realizable sources of returns [1] - Institutions such as BlackRock China, Fidelity International, Manulife Investment, and Legg Mason have expressed optimism about Chinese assets [1] Group 2: Asset Allocation Shifts - It is expected that over the next 3 to 5 years, global asset allocation will gradually weaken its heavy concentration on US dollar assets and shift towards a more diversified layout [1] - The Chinese market is showing renewed vitality, with advantages in complete industrial chains, strong innovation capabilities, and relatively attractive valuations [1]

Core Insights - The current market is not suitable for "lazy" static allocation, and while opportunities exist in 2026, the approach will be more challenging [1] - Foreign institutions are increasingly optimistic about Chinese assets, citing the complete industrial chain, strong innovation capabilities, and relatively attractive valuations [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - Global asset allocation is shifting away from a heavy concentration on USD assets towards a more diversified approach, with China showing renewed vitality [1][2] - The intertwining of five major trends—AI, geopolitical situations, energy transition, aging population, and new finance—is reshaping global capital markets and increasing asset volatility [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to adopt a more proactive asset allocation strategy, with quarterly or semi-annual rebalancing proving more effective than a buy-and-hold approach in high-volatility markets [4] - The demand for global allocation among Chinese investors is rising, and foreign investment in China is also increasing due to the country's unique market characteristics and growth potential [2] Group 3: Sector Focus - The logic for Chinese equity assets is expected to shift from valuation expansion to profit-driven growth, with a focus on sectors like technology, power equipment, healthcare, and undervalued traditional industries [3] - The AI-driven technology revolution is anticipated to enhance productivity and corporate performance, particularly in sectors such as power equipment and healthcare, which are seen as having significant potential [3] Group 4: Fixed Income Strategies - In a low-interest-rate environment, traditional bond investments face challenges, prompting the need for new return sources or strategies, including short-term trading and credit exploration [4] - The "fixed income plus" strategy is highlighted as a crucial tool for balancing risk and return, with a focus on maintaining fixed income assets as a foundation while selectively increasing exposure to volatile assets [4][5]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the evolving wealth management needs of business owners and high-net-worth individuals, highlighting a shift from a focus on asset appreciation to a demand for security, certainty, and orderly wealth transfer [2][4][5]. Group 1: Wealth Management Risks - Business owners are facing a "risk cube" that includes economic cycle risks, corporate debt risks, tax risks, marital risks, and inheritance risks, rather than just market volatility [4]. - Economic cycles, domestic macro and industrial policy adjustments, and the life cycle of businesses can lead to cash flow issues, potentially triggering personal wealth crises [4]. - Marital risks are increasingly significant, with cases of asset division during divorces highlighting the need for preemptive marital asset planning to protect family wealth and personal safety [4][5]. Group 2: Changing Wealth Management Demands - The core demand for wealth management has shifted from "value creation" to "safety," with high-net-worth individuals seeking systems that ensure their family's living standards and wealth transfer align with their intentions [5]. - The tightening of compliance and regulatory frameworks, such as the implementation of the "Golden Tax Phase IV" in China and the Common Reporting Standard (CRS) globally, has increased awareness of tax risks associated with overseas assets [5]. Group 3: Cross-Border Wealth Management - Effective cross-border wealth management requires establishing a top-level legal structure before selecting financial products, with trusts often serving as the core of this structure [7]. - Trusts can provide asset isolation and ensure that wealth is passed on according to the grantor's wishes, highlighting the importance of professional and compliant structure design [8]. Group 4: Comprehensive Wealth Solutions - A thorough assessment of family assets and tax risks is essential for creating tailored wealth management solutions, considering factors such as asset distribution, family member nationalities, and future immigration plans [10]. - The focus is on designing a comprehensive legal-financial framework that includes arrangements for business equity, family trusts, and investment management, rather than recommending single products [10][11]. Group 5: Value of Certainty in Wealth Management - The unique value proposition in wealth management lies in providing certainty amidst a world of variables, with a focus on reverse planning to clarify clients' ultimate goals [13]. - Establishing a clear legal framework for asset ownership is crucial, as it provides a reliable foundation for wealth management that does not depend on individual circumstances [13][14].

Core Insights - International investors are increasingly looking at Chinese assets as a diversified source of returns amid heightened volatility in the US stock market [1] - Foreign institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity International, Manulife Investment, and Legg Mason expect a gradual shift in global asset allocation away from a heavy concentration on US dollar assets towards a more diversified approach over the next 3 to 5 years [1][2] Group 1: Investment Trends - BlackRock's China head emphasizes the need for a systematic layout across regional, strategic, and thematic allocations to build resilient investment portfolios in response to high volatility and low yields [2] - The demand for global allocation from Chinese investors is rising, and foreign interest in the Chinese market is also increasing due to China's economic resilience and unique market characteristics [2][3] - Fidelity International notes that the Chinese market is regaining vitality, supported by consumption, real estate stabilization, and structural reforms, which are expected to attract more domestic and international investments [3] Group 2: Sector Focus - Foreign institutions are shifting their focus from valuation expansion to profit-driven growth in Chinese equity assets, particularly in technology, electric power equipment, healthcare, and undervalued traditional industries [4] - BlackRock identifies electric power as a high-certainty investment area due to its significant advantages in AI-related applications, while healthcare is seen as an overlooked sector with potential for stable growth driven by AI [4] - Manulife Investment anticipates diverse investment opportunities in China by 2026, focusing on technology, manufacturing, renewable energy, healthcare, and emerging consumer sectors [5] Group 3: Market Strategies - In a volatile market, active rebalancing is recommended over static allocation strategies, with evidence suggesting that quarterly or semi-annual rebalancing yields better long-term results [6] - Fixed income investors are encouraged to explore new return sources or strategies to mitigate reliance on low yields, including short-term trading and credit exploration [6] - The "fixed income plus" strategy is highlighted as a crucial tool for balancing risk and return, with a focus on maintaining fixed income assets as a foundation while selectively increasing exposure to volatile assets for enhanced overall returns [6]

Market Overview - In January 2026, global funds saw a significant outflow from emerging markets, with China experiencing a notable decline in fund allocation[3] - The Brent crude oil price increased by 14.6%, while industrial and precious metals saw substantial gains, with LME nickel, copper, and aluminum rising over 10%[3] - The U.S. equity market attracted $44.9 billion, while non-U.S. equity markets only saw an inflow of $2.3 billion during the same period[12] Fund Flows - China’s equity market experienced an outflow of $96.2 billion in January, while the fixed income market saw a $17 billion outflow[25] - Active funds contributed $2.1 billion to the Chinese equity market, whereas passive funds saw a significant outflow of $98.2 billion[22] - The relative outflow ratios for Chinese fixed income and equity funds reached 11.0% and 7.2%, respectively, indicating a higher outflow compared to other major markets[22] Global Asset Allocation - As of December 2025, the global allocation to U.S. equities slightly decreased to 61.2%, while the allocation to Chinese equities was at a historical low of 31.5%[3] - Emerging markets reduced their allocation to Chinese equities, with the current allocation ratio at 37.7%, reflecting a downward trend[3] Risk Factors - Short-term asset price fluctuations may not accurately represent long-term trends, and potential economic downturns in Europe and the U.S. could impact market stability[3]

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to continue a weak recovery in 2026, with uncertainties remaining. China's economy is projected to grow between 4.7% and 5.0% due to supportive macro policies, stabilizing domestic demand, and a balanced supply-demand dynamic, laying a foundation for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][12] - The US economy is returning to its potential growth level, with reduced policy uncertainty as the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates and expands its balance sheet, leading to improved liquidity [1][12] - The Eurozone's economic fundamentals remain robust, with expectations for continued monetary easing. The UK economy shows resilience, but clear signals for interest rate cuts are still awaited [1][12] Asset Allocation Insights - Precious metals are outperforming other asset classes, with a solid long-term bullish outlook for gold. Silver is supported by financial, industrial, and investment demand, showing an upward trend despite increased volatility [1][2] - Copper and aluminum prices are expected to rise due to AI-driven demand, although rapid short-term price increases pose risks [1][2] - The oil market continues to face an oversupply situation, with prices likely to fluctuate around cost levels [1][2] Stock Market Analysis - The trend of asset value reassessment in China is becoming evident, with a slow bull market established in A-shares. Hong Kong stocks are benefiting from the internationalization of RMB assets and external liquidity easing, suggesting an overweight allocation [1][2] - US stock valuations are high, necessitating a focus on balance between offensive and defensive strategies. European stock markets are becoming more attractive, recommending a standard allocation [1][2] - The Japanese stock market is benefiting from policy dividends and economic recovery, but rising geopolitical risks warrant caution [1][2] Bond Market Overview - The Federal Reserve's multiple interest rate cuts are pushing US Treasury yields lower, suggesting an overweight allocation. Chinese dollar-denominated bonds were previously overweight, with adjustments to be made based on future conditions. European bonds present high allocation value, recommending a standard allocation [2][12] Currency Market Trends - The US dollar is expected to decline, with non-US currencies showing mixed performance. The euro and Malaysian ringgit are performing strongly, while the Japanese yen, British pound, and Australian dollar are in the middle range, with the Canadian dollar appearing weaker [2][12] - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate against the US dollar, with slight depreciation against major non-US currencies [2][12]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price remains relatively strong due to the People's Bank of China's continued gold purchases and a temporary weakening of the US dollar, despite a rise in risk appetite and easing tensions in the Middle East limiting safe-haven inflows [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month in January, adding approximately 40,000 ounces, bringing total reserves to 74.19 million ounces, valued at about $36.96 billion [1]. - Central bank demand is viewed as a significant support for gold's long-term trend amid increasing fiscal pressures and geopolitical uncertainties in major economies [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite - Short-term, gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset has diminished due to signs of easing tensions in the Middle East and an overall optimistic tone in global stock markets, which has reduced the flow of funds into safe-haven assets [2]. - The market is experiencing a cautious trading atmosphere as important US macroeconomic data approaches, leading to a more restrained trading sentiment [1]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The assessment of the Federal Reserve's policy path remains a core variable influencing gold pricing, with traders expecting potential rate cuts as early as 2026 based on recent weak labor market data [3]. - Discussions around the next Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Walsh, have amplified policy uncertainty, particularly regarding his views on AI's impact on production efficiency and interest rates, which have faced skepticism from economists [3]. Group 4: Volatility and Investment Trends - HSBC Asset Management notes that significant price fluctuations in gold and silver over the past year have altered their traditional asset characteristics, with increased retail participation leading to speculative trading [4]. - While retail inflows may enhance short-term returns, they also weaken the stability of precious metals as risk diversification tools [4]. - The ongoing trend of central banks de-dollarizing and the demand for gold in crisis scenarios continue to provide structural support for precious metals in the long term [4].

(投资中国)贝莱德集团中国区负责人：外资对中国市场关注度持续上升 中新社上海2月9日电 (高志苗)贝莱德中国2026年投资展望会近日在上海举行。贝莱德集团中国区负责人 范华接受中新社采访时表示，外资对中国市场的关注度在持续上升。中国作为全球第二大经济体，产业 基础坚实、升级动能强劲，展现出较强的韧性与独特的增长潜力。 范华认为，对于外资机构而言，配置中国资产不仅能把握结构性机遇，也可享受相对较低的估值优势， 并通过资产间的低相关性实现投资组合的有效分散。此外，稳定的汇率预期与持续开放的跨境投资渠 道，将进一步便利全球资本的双向流动，为增强资产配置的多元性提供支撑。 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 在范华看来，当前全球市场正被人工智能、地缘政治、能源转型、人口老龄化及新金融五大颠覆性趋势 重塑，导致资产价格高波动、政策不确定性加剧。面对复杂的市场环境，投资者应系统性构建更具韧性 的投资组合，全球配置是实现"中国投海外，海外投中国"的共赢选择。 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 范华分析，过去几年"K型"增长成为中美市场的共同特征，行业表现差异巨大。她认为，人工智能(AI) 引领的新一轮技术革命正在重塑长期增 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 报告摘要 2026.2.9 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 Capex计划超预期，为何美股科技反而下跌？ 全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20260130-20260206) 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 王胜 A0230511060001 3 2. 全球资金流向：资金流入发达市场股市，流出中国股市 3. 资产估值指标：A股ERP较上周小幅上升，仍位于历史中性水平 4. 资产风险情绪：美股散户看涨比例下降，A股隐含波动率显著下行 5. 全球经济数据：美国制造业PMI大幅上行，降息预期小幅上行 6. 风险提示 地缘避险与增长忧虑交织，黄金与工业金属走势分化 ◼ 全球资本市场回顾：本周 (20260130-20260206)美国ADP数据低于预期，美联储3月降息预期升温1）固收方面，10Y美债收益率录得 4.22%，本周下跌4BP，美元指数上涨0.51%，当前点位为97.6；2）本周泰国、法国市场股市上涨较多，A股全线收跌，恒生科技、科创50 和创业扳指跌幅位列前三，阿根廷、越 ...

阅读须知：本文内容所有信息和数据，均为作者查阅官方信息和网络已知数据整合解析，旨 在让读者更清晰了解相应信息，如有数据错误或观点有误，请文明评论，作者积极改正！ （创作不易，一篇文章需要作者查阅多方资料，整合分析、总结，望大家理解） 2026年谁在"闷声发大财"？答案真不是谁喊得响、谁敢All in，而是谁能真正看清大盘该赌谁、什么时 候赌、怎么赌。 过去十年，真正赚钱的人，大多都做了一件事，看起来像在蛰伏，其实是在理解时代。 时代最贵的，是趋势。而"趋势"这东西，从来不靠运气，它是个绕不过宏观数据、政策红利、资产结构 甚至社会情绪的系统工程。 美国家庭疯狂收割华尔街，那么普通人如何在短视频红利退潮、中美家庭投资策略分化、以及全球资产 波动的大背景下，找到自己的"闷声发财"路径？ 先说最热的词，大A三年"肉眼可见的挣扎"，不少散户开始转向海外配置。 QDII从2007年开闸到今天，已经有了不少的规模，几百只基金产品，就是为海外投资而生的"合法通 道"。关键在于，有人已经悄悄靠它"跑赢大盘"。 但大家注意，这只是财富路线的一段。真正重要的是，我们正在告别一个单一市场逻辑，进入一个"多 元分叉的全球博弈时代"。 ...