Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, highlighting several key companies as investment opportunities [4]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that tariff uncertainties continue to disrupt the market, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver, which have reached new highs [1][2]. - Industrial metal prices are expected to remain strong due to supply disruptions and optimistic macroeconomic forecasts, despite short-term volatility caused by tariffs [2][3]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are projected to perform well due to strong demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [3]. - Precious metals are benefiting from strong central bank purchases and high expectations for interest rate cuts, which are expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Tariff-induced short-term volatility is affecting copper prices, but supply disruptions are expected to support prices [2]. - Aluminum demand remains resilient, with a decrease in social inventory indicating a potential price stabilization [2][19]. - The report highlights key companies in the industrial metals sector, including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [2]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are rising due to new export quota regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while lithium demand remains strong due to the growth of the electric vehicle market [3]. - Key companies recommended in this sector include Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to continue rising due to strong demand from central banks and geopolitical uncertainties [3]. - Recommended companies in the precious metals sector include Western Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zijin Gold [3].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs is threatening global investment, particularly impacting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and economies reliant on trade [1] Group 1: Impact on Global Investment - According to the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), global foreign direct investment (FDI) has declined for the second consecutive year [1] - The Secretary-General of UNCTAD, Grynspan, emphasized that the uncertainty in tariffs is a significant factor contributing to this decline [1] Group 2: Effects on Vulnerable Economies - Grynspan highlighted that the least developed countries in Africa and small island nations are facing the most challenging circumstances in dealing with tariff shocks, as they encounter much higher tariff levels compared to developed countries [1] - There is a call for the United States to consider the capacity of vulnerable nations when implementing tariff policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising uncertainty surrounding tariffs and its implications for international trade and economic stability [2] Group 1: Tariff Uncertainty - Recent developments indicate an increase in tariff-related uncertainties, which could impact global supply chains and trade dynamics [2] - The potential for new tariffs or changes to existing ones is causing businesses to reassess their strategies and operations [2] Group 2: Economic Implications - The uncertainty in tariffs may lead to fluctuations in market confidence, affecting investment decisions and economic growth [2] - Companies are likely to face increased costs and operational challenges due to the unpredictability of tariff policies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing a rebound, with significant gains in bank stocks and increased inflows into bank ETFs, indicating a potential investment opportunity in this sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Bank stocks showed strong performance, with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Nanjing Bank rising over 5%, while Qilu Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank increased by over 3% [1]. - The bank ETF (512800) saw a brief decline but then surged, with a peak increase of 1.4% and a current rise of 1.03%, achieving a real-time transaction volume of 1.551 billion yuan, surpassing the previous day's total [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - According to Galaxy Securities, the impact of potential new tariffs on banks is manageable, and the uncertainty may increase demand for defensive asset allocations, presenting opportunities for bank investments [3]. - The banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio has fallen to 0.67x, placing it in the 73rd percentile over the past five years, with state-owned banks offering an average dividend yield of 4.11%, which is attractive compared to the ten-year government bond yield [3]. - Some city commercial banks, such as Jiangsu Bank, Shanghai Bank, and Chengdu Bank, have dividend yields exceeding 5.5%, indicating high investment value [3]. - The bank ETF (512800) has attracted significant capital inflows, with a net inflow of 763 million yuan over three days [3]. Group 3: ETF Details - The bank ETF (512800) and its linked funds are designed to passively track the CSI Bank Index, which includes 42 listed banks in A-shares, making it an efficient investment tool for the banking sector [3]. - The fund size of the bank ETF remains robust, with an average daily transaction volume exceeding 600 million yuan this year, making it the largest and most liquid among the ten bank ETFs in A-shares [3].

Key Points - The article discusses the recent volatility in global risk assets, with a notable decline in major stock indices and a rise in safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasury bonds [2][63] - There is an increase in tariff uncertainty, particularly with Trump's renewed threats of tariffs on Chinese goods, which is a common negotiation tactic [38][63] - The political landscape in Europe is unstable, with significant events such as the French Prime Minister's sudden resignation and the Japanese ruling party's coalition changes, which could impact economic policies [40][42][63] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes reveal a division among officials regarding future interest rate cuts, highlighting concerns over private credit risks following the bankruptcy of First Brands Group [51][45][63] Asset Class Summary - Global risk assets have mostly retreated, while safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries have surged. The S&P 500 fell by 2.4%, and the Nasdaq dropped by 2.5% [2][63] - In developed markets, the Nikkei 225 rose by 5.1%, while other indices like the Hang Seng and Dow Jones saw declines [3] - Emerging markets showed mixed results, with indices like the Ho Chi Minh Index increasing by 6.2% [3] Sector Performance - In the U.S., most sectors within the S&P 500 declined, particularly energy and consumer discretionary, which fell by 4.0% and 3.3%, respectively [7] - In the Eurozone, sectors such as consumer discretionary and technology also faced declines, while utilities and consumer staples saw slight gains [7] Currency and Commodity Movements - The U.S. dollar index increased by 1.1% to 98.82, while the offshore yuan depreciated to 7.15 [19][27] - Commodity prices were mixed, with WTI crude oil dropping by 3.3% to $58.9 per barrel, while COMEX gold rose by 2.7% to $3986.2 per ounce [28][33] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicated a split among officials on the appropriateness of further rate cuts, with some advocating for caution due to loose financial conditions [51][63] - The bankruptcy of First Brands Group raised concerns about risks in the private credit market, which has seen significant growth since the pandemic [45][63]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the US dollar index is forecasted to be 96.61 in three months and 101.84 in the next 6 to 12 months, with expectations for the dollar to recover by 2026 [1] - The report anticipates that the upcoming US midterm elections will lead to more support for economic growth policies, including deregulation, early tax cuts, and delayed spending cuts, which should bolster expectations for a rebound in US economic growth [1] - Strong growth in artificial intelligence and capital expenditures, along with the easing of tariff uncertainties, are also expected to support the positive outlook for the US economy [1]

Core Insights - Orders declined for the fourth consecutive month in August, primarily due to tariff uncertainty affecting international orders [1] Industry Summary - The ongoing tariff uncertainty has led to a significant decrease in international orders, impacting overall order volumes [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold is expected to continue benefiting from liquidity easing and can hedge against uncertainties brought by tariffs [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 26, 2025, COMEX gold futures have risen nearly 8% in September [1] - The key drivers for this increase include concerns over European fiscal stability and the recent 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, marking the first cut in 2025 [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - The U.S. job market faces downside risks, and inflation has not exceeded expectations, suggesting further rate cuts may occur within the year [1] - Ongoing uncertainties in the global landscape, including political turmoil in Europe and Japan, have contributed to the rise in gold prices since August [1] Group 3: Tariff Impact - The recent initiation of Section 232 tariff investigations by the U.S. on specific industries adds to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies, making gold a potential hedge against volatility in risk assets like the stock market [1]

Economic Environment - The current economic environment is characterized by both structural and cyclical challenges, with companies entering the year with strong balance sheets and the ability to innovate despite tariff uncertainties [3][4] - Interest rates are still considered restrictive, prompting discussions about the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, with debates surrounding the neutral rate and inflation's transitory nature [4][18] Investment Strategy - A diversified portfolio is recommended, particularly focusing on fixed income, which provides income and diversification benefits amid potential economic slowdowns [5][6] - There is a positive outlook for bond funds, especially in the context of strong corporate balance sheets and the potential for yields in high-grade corporate paper [7][8] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is currently in a state of uncertainty, with companies pausing hiring due to tariff-related uncertainties and potential government shutdowns impacting the outlook [9][15] - There are balanced risks in the labor market, with the possibility of both hiring and firing depending on economic conditions and tariff resolutions [12][17] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting rates gradually, with current rates around 4.25%, and discussions about reaching a neutral rate between 2.5% and 3.5% [18][19] - The Fed's actions are influenced by the current economic data, which is perceived as murky, and the need for more information to guide future decisions [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's stock price reached a record high of 1,295 TWD, with market attention focused on when foreign investment firms will adjust their target prices upward [1] Group 1: TSMC Performance - TSMC's short-term operational momentum and long-term competitiveness remain strong, unaffected by Nvidia's investment in Intel, leading to a resurgence in the Taiwanese stock market [1] - Foreign investment firms, including Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and others, have set TSMC's target stock price between 1,300 and 1,400 TWD, raising discussions on potential new catalysts for TSMC's profitability [1] Group 2: UMC's Market Position - UMC's stock has been stagnant, with mixed opinions from foreign investors; some maintain a positive outlook while others are more conservative [2] - UMC has recently seen an "earlier than usual" surge in urgent orders, indicating a potential recovery in stock price and boosting sentiment in the semiconductor sector [2] - Analysts note that the semiconductor industry may experience a new wave of order demand starting in the second half of 2026 as uncertainties around tariffs diminish [2]