亚洲交易周伊始，比特币在关税不确定性再度升温的背景下应声下挫。该加密货币早盘一度跌至64338 美元低位，以太坊和瑞波币也同步下跌。 XS.com分析师Linh Tran指出，比特币最新跌势反映风险资产市场重现谨慎情绪。法院否决特朗普总统 关税措施及政府随后宣布新全球关税的方案，已显著加剧全球贸易不确定性。 责任编辑：王许宁 另一关键因素是比特币ETF资金流入明显减弱，这直接影响市场需求并削弱近期对可持续牛市周期的预 期。 根据LSEG数据，比特币现跌3.4%报65351美元。 上个马年沪指涨近60%！新年新福利来了，炒股排面要拉满，新号启幸运>> 亚洲交易周伊始，比特币在关税不确定性再度升温的背景下应声下挫。该加密货币早盘一度跌至64338 美元低位，以太坊和瑞波币也同步下跌。 XS.com分析师Linh Tran指出，比特币最新跌势反映风险资产市场重现谨慎情绪。法院否决特朗普总统 关税措施及政府随后宣布新全球关税的方案，已显著加剧全球贸易不确定性。 该分析师表示，对比特币而言，政策不确定性常引发短期"避险"情绪，促使投资者优先选择现金和债券 而非高波动性资产。 该分析师表示，对比特币而言，政策不确定性常引 ...

【美联储洛根：法院裁决后 关税不确定性加剧】智通财经2月21日电，美联储洛根表示，法院裁决后， 关税不确定性加剧。 ...

Group 1 - The IMF has raised its short-term global economic growth forecast, but challenges remain for medium-term growth, which relies on credible, predictable, and sustainable policy actions [1][2] - The IMF projects global economic growth to decline from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, with developed economies growing at approximately 1.6% and emerging markets slightly above 4% [1] - Current economic resilience appears to stem from temporary factors rather than robust fundamentals, with signs of weakening economic conditions as these factors fade [1] Group 2 - Long-term policy uncertainty may suppress consumption and investment, while protectionist measures could disrupt supply chains and hinder productivity growth [2] - Breakthroughs in trade negotiations could lower tariffs and reduce uncertainty, potentially boosting medium-term growth [2] - The rapid growth of productivity driven by artificial intelligence may positively impact the overall economy [2] Group 3 - Tariff uncertainty is constraining the path for global central bank interest rate cuts, despite many economies being in a monetary easing cycle [3] - The front-loading effects of trade and investment due to tariffs have resulted in resilient economic activity and labor markets, delaying the pace of interest rate cuts [3] Group 4 - Inflation rates in the Eurozone, the US, and the UK are expected to remain around 3%, with tariffs and supply chain adjustments having a limited impact on inflation pressure so far [4] - The pricing effects of tariffs indicate broader implications for pricing and supply chains, which may eventually lead to cost increases being passed on to consumers [4] - The interplay between inflation and interest rate cuts is a significant variable, potentially benefiting commodity prices [4] Group 5 - Fiscal policies in developed economies are expected to maintain a neutral to slightly accommodative stance, with debt risks persisting under high financing rates [5] - Despite lower deficit forecasts for 2025 compared to record levels in 2020-2021, deficits remain significantly above pre-pandemic levels [5] - The debt-to-GDP ratio in the US is projected to rise from 122% in 2024 to 143% by 2030, while the Eurozone's ratio is expected to reach 92% by 2030 [5] Group 6 - The WTO forecasts that trade volume growth will slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.4% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026 due to higher tariff rates and increased trade policy uncertainty [6] - The risks associated with trade restrictions and policy uncertainty are expected to affect more economies and sectors [6] - On a positive note, the continued growth of AI-related goods and services trade may provide a boost to global trade in the medium term [7]

技术性停摆持续 当地时间2月2日， 美国劳工统计局表示，由于联邦政府部分停摆，原定于6日发布的美1月就业报告将 不会按时公布。美国劳工统计局（BLS）出版与特别研究事务副局长埃米莉·利德尔（Emily Liddel）在 一份声明中表示："在政府恢复拨款后，相关数据发布将重新安排。由于联邦政府部分停摆，劳工统计 局将暂停数据的采集、处理和发布。" 劳工统计局同时推迟了原定周二发布的2025年12月美国职位空缺报告。这是继去年秋季创纪录的43天政 府停摆后，关键经济数据再次因拨款中断而延迟。去年9月非农就业数据曾延至11月20日公布，而10月 和11月的就业报告当时合并延至12月16日一并发布。 作为背景，美国两党在移民执法问题上矛盾升级，导致新一期临时拨款法案未能及时推进，部分联邦政 府部门从1月31日起进入停摆状态。目前，美国参议院通过拨款法案，将为国防部、教育部、卫生与公 众服务部、劳工部、交通部以及住房与城市发展部在内的多个联邦机构提供资金，但修改后的方案仍需 获得众议院批准。 众议院共和党籍议长迈克·约翰逊当地时间2月1日表示，共和党人准备"单干"，以推动给多部门拨款的 法案尽快获批。美国联邦政府多部门 ...

Core Viewpoint - Autoliv, Inc. reported strong fourth-quarter earnings, exceeding analyst expectations in both adjusted earnings per share and quarterly sales, driven by significant growth in India and with Chinese OEMs [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company posted fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $3.19, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.90 [1]. - Quarterly sales reached $2.817 billion, exceeding the expected $2.772 billion [1]. - For fiscal 2025, Autoliv reported sales of $10.82 billion and guided for flat organic sales growth in fiscal 2026, projecting revenue of approximately $10.8 billion, which is below Wall Street's estimate of $11.18 billion [3]. Growth Drivers - CEO Mikael Bratt highlighted record high sales for both the quarter and the full year, primarily driven by nearly 40% growth in sales to COEMs for the quarter and 23% for the full year [2]. - The company achieved close to 100% recovery of tariff costs in Q4 and over 80% for the full year [2]. Challenges - Autoliv noted that ongoing supply-chain volatility has negatively impacted production efficiency and profitability, with last-minute changes in customer call-offs affecting operational planning [2]. - The company anticipates some improvement in 2026, despite ongoing tariff uncertainties [2]. Analyst Ratings - Evercore ISI Group analyst Chris McNally maintained an Outperform rating on Autoliv but lowered the price target from $150 to $145 [4]. - RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan also maintained an Outperform rating while reducing the price target from $146 to $141 [4].

Core Viewpoint - Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) is partnering with Century Aluminum to build the first new lightweight aluminum production plant in the U.S. since 1980, located in Oklahoma, with an expected annual production of 750,000 metric tons of aluminum [1] Group 1: Company Collaboration - EGA will hold a 60% stake in the joint venture, while Century Aluminum will own the remaining shares [1] - Construction is expected to begin by the end of this year, with production planned to start before 2030 [1] Group 2: Market Impact - The new plant will help reduce U.S. dependence on aluminum imports, which are projected to account for about half of U.S. consumption in 2024 according to the U.S. Geological Survey [1] - The collaboration comes at a time of rising aluminum prices in the U.S., influenced by tariffs imposed by President Trump on imported metals, which have increased costs for domestic consumers [1] Group 3: Financial Considerations - The estimated cost of the plant is expected to exceed $5 billion [1] - Analysts believe that the expenditure is feasible under the current pricing environment, but there are concerns regarding the cyclical nature of the aluminum business and ongoing tariff uncertainties, which may lead the company to consider alternative financing options, including equity financing [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - Due to the Greenland issue, Trump threatened to impose tariffs on European super - countries starting from February 1st, and foreign media reported that Europe might counter. The dual uncertainties in geopolitics and trade have increased the market's risk - aversion demand, leading to a sharp rise in precious metal prices. The long - term upward logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and strategies should focus on buying on dips or selling out - of - the - money put options [4] - In the medium to long term, the Fed is in an easing cycle, geopolitical uncertainties will continue, and the US dollar credit risk will increase. The allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, so the medium - to - long - term price center of gold is likely to move up. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price Tracking of Domestic and Foreign Gold and Silver - On January 19, 2026, London gold spot was $4674.54/ounce, London silver spot was $93.65/ounce, and compared with January 16, the price increases were 1.7% and 3.5% respectively. The prices of other gold and silver products also showed different degrees of increase [3] 2. Spread/Ratio - On January 19, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 2.88 yuan/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 40 yuan/kg. Compared with January 16, the changes were 35.8% and 185.7% respectively [3] 3. Position Data - As of January 16, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1085.67 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 16073.05851 tons. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold and silver also had different changes compared with January 15 [3] 4. Inventory Data - On January 19, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 99990.00 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory was 617760.00 kg, showing a decline compared with January 16 [3] 5. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On January 19, 2026, the US dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.01, the US dollar index was 99.37, and other indicators also had slight changes compared with the previous period [3] 6. Market Review - On January 19, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 1.54% to 1048.88 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 2.75% to 20189 yuan/kg [3]

Group 1 - The prices of major industrial metals tracked by LME, including copper, nickel, and aluminum, have seen significant increases, with LME nickel reaching a 19-month high due to supply concerns [1][3] - LME copper rose by 1.9% to $13,238 per ton, hitting a record high of $13,387.50, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 6.5% [3][4] - Supply concerns are exacerbated by strikes at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde mine in Chile and delays in production at a mine in Ecuador, leading to heightened worries about copper availability [4][5] Group 2 - Analysts from ING noted that Indonesia's plan to cut nickel ore production is effective in boosting prices in the short term, but long-term price sustainability is uncertain due to expected oversupply [3] - UBS analysts highlighted that the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and ongoing supply disruptions are driving speculative trading in copper, with increased demand for copper in energy transition and infrastructure investments [4][5] - Other industrial metals also experienced significant price increases, with LME tin up 4.8%, aluminum up 1.4%, zinc up 1.8%, and lead up 2.6% [4]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Williams stated that trade activity in New York remains robust, indicating a positive economic outlook for the region [1] - Uncertainty regarding tariffs has significantly decreased, which may lead to improved business confidence and investment [1] Group 1 - Trade activity in New York is described as still active, suggesting resilience in the local economy [1] - The reduction in tariff-related uncertainty is highlighted as a key factor that could enhance economic stability and growth [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Central bank gold purchases, concerns over fiscal risks, and steady investment demand are expected to drive gold prices higher in the second half of 2026 [1][5] - After a rapid increase, gold and silver prices reached historical highs, and platinum group metals (PGM) also peaked, indicating a need for price consolidation [1][6] - Approximately 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves while reducing dollar holdings, which will support long-term gold price increases [6] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver demand may face pressure in 2026, particularly from photovoltaic silver, with limited growth in industrial and jewelry consumption [3][7] - Despite high prices in 2025, investment demand from ETFs and retail investors suggests potential upward momentum for silver prices [3][7] - Silver's price movements will be influenced by the gold market, economic conditions, and monetary policy, with potential for upward movement if gold prices continue to rise [3][7] Group 3: Platinum Group Metals (PGM) Overview - PGM supply is expected to be tight in 2026, but declining demand may reduce deficits, particularly for palladium and rhodium due to decreased sales of light-duty internal combustion vehicles [2][6] - Rhodium's market tightness is supported by demand from data center construction, but prices may have peaked in the short term [2][6] - Overall, the PGM market faces downward risks, especially in the context of economic slowdown or potential recession [2][6]