1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures face downward pressure due to concerns about production growth and a slowdown in export growth in the second half of the month. In the long - term, there is a risk of price decline. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are expected to seek support at around 9200 yuan [1]. - For soybean oil, the policy on small refiner exemptions in the US may affect its industrial demand. Domestically, the spot price has fallen with the market, but the basis quote is expected to rise due to increased consumption during the Mid - Autumn Festival and the start of the school term [1]. Grains and Meals - For grains and meals, the bottom range has shifted upward, and the overall trend is still upward. It is recommended to take the opportunity to lay out long - term long positions [3]. Corn - Corn is at the stage of new and old crop alternation. The market sentiment is weak due to sufficient imports and the upcoming new crop. In the short - term, the demand is hard to improve significantly, and the market is expected to remain volatile and weak. In the medium - term, the cost of new - season corn is expected to decline, and the supply pressure is obvious [6]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs has stabilized. With the start of school and cooler weather in the Northeast, consumption has increased, and the market sentiment is turning bullish. However, there may be a wave of concentrated slaughtering before the double festivals, and there is more uncertainty in the far - end market. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Sugar - There is a risk of downward revision of Brazil's sugar production. It is difficult for raw sugar to fall sharply in the short - term. With the increase in the destocking progress in Guangxi, the domestic sugar price is expected to remain volatile, and the downward momentum has weakened [10]. Cotton - Short - term domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range due to tight old - crop inventory and low imports. However, with the upcoming new - crop listing and the expected increase in production, the far - end market is under pressure [11]. Eggs - Egg supply is stable, and the market is moving slowly. The inventory of laying hens is large, and the supply of cold - storage eggs may increase the supply pressure. Egg prices are expected to remain bearish [12]. 3. Summary by Categories Oils and Fats - **Palm Oil**: On August 20, the price of Jiangsu Grade 1 palm oil was 8630 yuan, down 200 yuan or 2.27% from the previous day. The basis of Y2601 decreased by 88 yuan or 31.88%. The inventory of palm oil remained unchanged at 15,310 [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price of Jiangsu Grade 4 soybean oil was 9900 yuan on August 20, down 130 yuan or 1.30% from the previous day. The basis of OI601 decreased by 133 yuan or 100.76% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Jiangsu Grade 4 rapeseed oil was 10030 yuan on August 20, down 130 yuan or 1.30% from the previous day. The basis of OI601 decreased by 1 yuan [1]. Grains and Meals - **Soybean Meal**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged at 3070 yuan. The price of M2601 decreased by 1 yuan or 0.03%. The basis increased by 1 yuan or 1.10%. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans for the October shipment decreased by 33 yuan or 36.7% [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal decreased by 40 yuan or 1.51% to 2610 yuan. The price of RM2601 increased by 23 yuan or 0.88%. The basis decreased by 63 yuan or 136.96% [3]. - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3950 yuan. The price of the main soybean contract decreased by 10 yuan or 0.25%. The basis increased by 10 yuan or 10.42% [3]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2511 remained unchanged at 2170 yuan. The price of Jinzhou Port FOB decreased by 50 yuan or 2.16%. The basis decreased by 50 yuan or 35.71%. The import profit decreased by 20 yuan or 4.26% [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2511 increased by 9 yuan or 0.36% to 2489 yuan. The basis decreased by 9 yuan or 3.91% [6]. Pigs - **Futures**: The price of the main pig contract decreased by 125 yuan or 0.90% to 13775 yuan. The basis increased by 90 yuan or 25.71% [8]. - **Spot**: The price of pigs in Henan remained unchanged at 13850 yuan, while the price in Guangdong increased by 200 yuan to 15240 yuan [8]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of Sugar 2601 decreased by 15 yuan or 0.26% to 5661 yuan. The price of Sugar 2509 increased by 11 yuan or 1.72% [10]. - **Spot**: The price of Nanning sugar decreased by 10 yuan or 0.17% to 5970 yuan. The import price of Brazilian sugar (in - quota) decreased by 43 yuan or 0.95% [10]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of Cotton 2509 decreased by 20 yuan or 0.14% to 13800 yuan. The price of Cotton 2601 decreased by 45 yuan or 0.32% to 14055 yuan [11]. - **Spot**: The price of Xinjiang 3128B cotton remained unchanged at 15080 yuan. The CC Index: 3128B decreased by 3 yuan or 0.02% to 15240 yuan [11]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the Egg 09 contract decreased by 17 yuan or 0.57% to 2983 yuan. The price of the Egg 10 contract increased by 7 yuan or 0.23% to 3072 yuan [12]. - **Spot**: The price of eggs in the main production areas decreased by 0.01 yuan or 0.41% to 3.30 yuan per catty [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, but there are still some pressure points. The domestic soybean market has a significant inventory accumulation pressure. For sugar, the international market is expected to enter a stock - building phase, and the domestic sugar price will follow the international trend. In the oil sector, palm oil may continue to increase production and inventory, while domestic soybean imports are decreasing, and the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are relatively stable. For corn, the external market shows a rebound trend. The pig price remains stable, and the peanut market is in a new - old alternation period. The egg market has supply pressure and general demand, and the apple market has low inventory and is in a off - season. The cotton market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [4][11][19][22][30][34][43][50][57]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index dropped 0.31% to 1053 cents/bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.03% to 292.5 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Related Information**: As of August 17, the soybean good - excellent rate was 68%, unchanged from the previous week. The US soybean export inspection volume for the week ending August 14 was 473,605 tons. Oil World indicated that the US soybean production decline reduced market safety. As of August 15, the oil mill's actual soybean crushing volume was 2.339 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.75%. Soybean inventory decreased by 4.24% week - on - week, and soybean meal inventory increased by 1.12% week - on - week [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, but the Brazilian and Argentine soybean markets have their own characteristics. The domestic soybean market has inventory accumulation pressure [4][6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For single - side trading, a long - position thinking is recommended for soybean and rapeseed meal; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, buy call options [7]. Sugar - **External Market Changes**: ICE US raw sugar price dropped 1.4% to 16.24 cents/pound, and London white sugar price dropped 0.96% to 476.9 dollars/ton [8]. - **Important Information**: In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase. The US announced the sugar import tariff quota implementation rules for the 2025/26 fiscal year. Pakistan decided to import 85,000 tons of sugar [9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, and the global inventory is expected to increase. Domestically, the domestic sugar price will follow the international trend [11]. - **Position Suggestion**: For single - side trading, expect the Zhengzhou sugar price to be volatile in the short term, and consider short - selling at high prices; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [12][13][14]. Oil Sector - **External Market**: Not provided. - **Related Information**: From August 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.88% month - on - month. As of August 17, the US soybean good - excellent rate was 68%. Canada's rapeseed export volume increased by 864.4% in the week ending August 10. China's palm oil imports in July decreased by 46.8% year - on - year, while soybean oil imports increased by 263% year - on - year. As of August 15, palm oil and soybean oil commercial inventories increased [17][18]. - **Logic Analysis**: Malaysia's palm oil is in the production season, and Indonesia's price provides support. Domestic soybean imports are decreasing, and the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are relatively stable [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, expect a short - term correction in oil prices and consider long - positions after the correction; for arbitrage, consider a positive spread for P1 - 5 after the correction; for options, consider selling put options or buying call options after the correction [19][21]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: CBOT corn futures rebounded, with the December contract rising 0.6% to 406.5 cents/bushel [22]. - **Important Information**: The US corn main - producing areas are expected to have lower - than - normal temperatures. The US corn good - excellent rate is 71%. Brazil's corn shipment volume in August 2025 was lower than last year. The North Port's corn purchase price was stable, and the North China corn market was strong [23][24]. - **Logic Analysis**: Not provided. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider a long - position for the external December corn contract and short - selling at high prices for the January contract; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [26][27][28]. Pig - **Related Information**: Pig prices remained stable across regions. Piglet and sow prices changed slightly. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased, and the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market increased by 0.7% [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: Not provided. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For single - side trading, consider long - positions for far - month contracts at low prices; for arbitrage, conduct an LH91 reverse spread; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [31]. Peanut - **Important Information**: During the new - old peanut alternation period, the price of old peanuts decreased, and the price of new peanuts increased. Peanut oil prices were strong, and peanut meal sales were weak. As of August 14, peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased [32][33]. - **Logic Analysis**: The peanut market is in a new - old alternation period, the import volume has decreased, and the downstream consumption is weak. The 10 - month peanut is expected to be strong in the short term but may face supply pressure due to the expected increase in planting area [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider short - selling the 10 - month peanut at high prices and currently take a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, sell the pk510 - C - 8600 option [35][36][37]. Egg - **Important Information**: Egg prices in the main production and sales areas increased slightly, and then remained stable. In July, the national laying - hen inventory increased year - on - year. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas increased by 1% in the week ending August 14. The production and circulation inventories decreased. The egg - farming profit was - 0.26 yuan/jin, and the egg - hen farming expected profit decreased [39][41][42]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply pressure is obvious, the demand is general, and the cold - storage eggs' release impacts the price. For the September contract, although it is a peak - season contract, the spot price increase is less than expected [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider short - selling at high prices; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [43][45]. Apple - **Important Information**: As of August 13, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 460,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease. In June 2025, the fresh apple import volume increased year - on - year, and the export volume decreased year - on - year. The apple price was stable, and the early - maturing apple price was high [47]. - **Trading Logic**: The current inventory is low, the market is in an off - season, the new - season apple production is expected to be similar to this season, and the early - maturing apple price decline impacts the market [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, expect the new - season apple price to be widely volatile; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [51][52]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Impact**: ICE US cotton price rose 0.53% to 67.84 cents/pound [53]. - **Important Information**: As of August 16, 2025, the Indian cotton planting area decreased by 3.7% year - on - year. As of August 8, the ICE cotton futures' ON - CALL data showed a decrease in the number of un - priced contracts. Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production was expected to be 3.935 million tons, a slight decrease [54][56]. - **Trading Logic**: The short - term tariff impact may weaken, and the supply is relatively tight. The demand is expected to improve in August. The short - term market has more positive factors [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, expect the US cotton price to be slightly stronger and the Zhengzhou cotton price to be slightly stronger in the short term with limited upward space; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [58][60].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for the粕类 sector is neutral [3] - The investment strategy for the corn sector is cautiously bearish [5] Group 2: Core Views - The current domestic soybean supply remains abundant with no significant changes in the fundamentals However, the results of the recent anti - dumping investigation on rapeseed at the policy level have a significant impact on the prices of粕类 Meanwhile, there is still no obvious progress in Sino - US trade policies, and future developments are uncertain The Brazilian premium remains strong, providing support at the cost end [2] - In the domestic corn market, the channel inventories in the Northeast and North China regions are relatively low, and traders are more willing to sell The demand from deep - processing enterprises is stable with decreasing inventories Feed enterprises have reduced their corn positions and mainly make sporadic purchases The new wheat usage is stable Overall, there is insufficient upward momentum in prices, and the market is focused on the arrival of new grain [4] Group 3: Market News and Important Data (粕类) - Futures: The closing price of the豆粕2509 contract was 3155 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+0.57%) from the previous day; the菜粕2509 contract was 2590 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (+1.73%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the豆粕 spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2990 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2970 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton In Fujian, the菜粕 spot price was 2770 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [1] - Market news: In July, NOPA member companies crushed 195.699 million bushels of soybeans, a month - on - month increase of 5.6% and a year - on - year increase of 7% The crushing volume reached a six - month high and the highest level for July in NOPA records [1] Group 4: Market News and Important Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn2509 contract was 2177 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.59%); the corn starch2509 contract was 2594 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.77%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2730 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market news: As of August 13, 2024/25, Argentina had harvested 46.73 million tons of corn, with a progress of 94.6% and an average yield of 7.21 tons per hectare [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean import cost is on a stable and slightly rising trend, but the upward momentum is questionable due to the global surplus of protein raw materials. The domestic soybean meal market is in a season of supply surplus, and it is expected to start destocking in September. The market has both bullish and bearish factors [2][4]. - The fundamentals support the upward movement of the oil price center. Palm oil may maintain stable inventory and strong prices. There is a possibility of price increase in the fourth - quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy, but the upside is limited [6][9]. - The international sugar price is unlikely to rebound significantly, and the domestic sugar price is likely to continue to decline due to increasing imports and high valuation [11][12]. - The cotton price may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, influenced by the USDA report and trade policies, but the downstream consumption is average [14][15]. - The egg price is expected to be mostly stable with local adjustments. The egg supply is large, and the market may fluctuate in the short - term, with opportunities to short after a rebound in the medium - term [17][19]. - The pig price is expected to remain stable. The market may oscillate in a range, with short - term focus on low - buying, attention to upside pressure in the medium - term, and a reverse - spread strategy for the far - month contracts [20][21]. 3. Summaries by Directory Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: The US soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons. The Brazilian soybean premium has been oscillating at a high level recently. The domestic soybean meal spot basis is stable, and the downstream inventory has slightly decreased. The total inventory of port soybeans converted to soybean meal and oil mill soybean meal is stable [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest buying at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range, and pay attention to the crushing profit, supply pressure, Sino - US tariff progress, and new supply - side drivers [4]. Oil - **Important Information**: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67% compared to the same period last month. From August 1 - 15, the palm oil yield decreased by 1.78%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51%, and the production increased by 0.88%. Indonesia has confiscated 3.1 million hectares of illegal palm oil plantations. The domestic spot basis of the three major oils is stable at a low level [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fundamentals support the upward movement of the oil price center. Palm oil may maintain stable inventory and strong prices. There is a possibility of price increase in the fourth - quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy, but the upside is limited [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to oscillate. The spot price remained unchanged. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The international sugar price is unlikely to rebound significantly, and the domestic sugar price is likely to continue to decline due to increasing imports and high valuation [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate. The spot price increased slightly. In July 2025, China imported 50,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cotton price may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, influenced by the USDA report and trade policies, but the downstream consumption is average [15]. Egg - **Important Information**: The national egg price has been adjusted with slight increases and decreases. The supply is stable, and the downstream digestion is moderate. The egg price is expected to be mostly stable with local adjustments [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The egg supply is large, and the market may fluctuate in the short - term, with opportunities to short after a rebound in the medium - term [19]. Pig - **Important Information**: The domestic pig price was mainly stable with local weakness. The supply and demand are in a stalemate, and the price is expected to remain stable [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market may oscillate in a range, with short - term focus on low - buying, attention to upside pressure in the medium - term, and a reverse - spread strategy for the far - month contracts [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy with Caution (★☆☆)**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Live Hogs [1] - **Neutral (☆☆☆)**: Soybean Oil, Palm Oil [1] - **Analysis Unclear**: Soybean, Eggs [1] 2. Core Views - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: USDA's August report was bullish for US soybeans, and dry conditions in the US may challenge new - season soybean growth. China's soybean supply is sufficient in the short - term but uncertain in the long - term. The soybean meal market is cautiously bullish, and investors can enter on pullbacks [3]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Indonesian policies and market expectations have driven up palm oil prices. In the short - term, there is a risk of increased volatility or correction, but in the long - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed market was pressured by import expectations last week. However, considering the possible timing of Australian rapeseed imports, there may be a short - term rebound in rapeseed futures prices, and a short - term long strategy is advisable [6]. - **Corn**: The continuous release of imported corn has affected market expectations. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7]. - **Live Hogs**: Supply pressure will keep live hog prices weak in the second half of the year. The 11 - contract has rebounded and then fallen, and industrial players are advised to hedge on rallies [8]. - **Eggs**: High production capacity has pressured egg prices. In the short - term, there is a risk of profit - taking by short - selling funds, and the market is in a contango situation [9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean - Last week, soybean prices fluctuated greatly due to the influence of surrounding varieties and the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on rapeseed. However, due to weak fundamentals, prices quickly fell after a short - term rise. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is shrinking. Short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy impacts [2] Soybean Meal - USDA's August report was bullish for US soybeans. In the next two weeks, dry conditions in the US may challenge new - season soybean growth. China's soybean supply is sufficient in the short - term but uncertain in the long - term. The soybean meal market is cautiously bullish, and investors can enter on pullbacks [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Indonesian policies and market expectations have driven up palm oil prices. The strength of the palm oil market is mainly driven by the Indonesian market. The relative valuation of palm oil is not low. In the short - term, there is a risk of increased volatility or correction, but in the long - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market was pressured by import expectations last week. Canadian rapeseed production is expected to be good. There is a possibility that Australian rapeseed will enter the Chinese market, but it is uncertain when. The rapeseed futures prices may rebound in the short - term, and a short - term long strategy is advisable [6] Corn - As of August 18th, the low - volume trading of imported corn auctions has affected market expectations. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Hogs - The supply of live hogs is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and prices are likely to remain weak. The 11 - contract has rebounded and then fallen, and industrial players are advised to hedge on rallies [8] Eggs - High production capacity has pressured egg prices. In the short - term, there is a risk of profit - taking by short - selling funds, and the market is in a contango situation [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the pig and egg sectors is neutral [3][5] Group 2: Report's Core View - For the pig market, future pig supply is expected to continue increasing, putting pressure on spot prices. The improvement in consumption is uncertain. Although the market believes that pig inventory has been significantly reduced and the expectation for forward contracts has improved, the overall reduction in pig production capacity is not obvious at present and needs continuous attention [2] - For the egg market, egg prices have declined, leading to increased replenishment enthusiasm among food companies and low - price stocking by traders. Tourism and catering consumption remains strong, and consumption demand is on the rise. The spot market is moving smoothly, and egg consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. Spot prices are expected to fluctuate upward this week, but the impact of cold - storage egg出库 on the spot market needs to be closely monitored [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2509 contract yesterday was 13,900 yuan/ton, a change of - 145.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 1.03% [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 13.76 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 13.89 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.44 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - Agricultural product prices on August 14: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 114.75, up 0.17 points from the previous day; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 115.05, up 0.19 points. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.23 yuan/kg, down 0.1%; beef was 64.91 yuan/kg, up 0.2%; mutton was 59.85 yuan/kg, up 0.3%; eggs were 7.52 yuan/kg, up 0.1%; white - striped chickens were 17.39 yuan/kg, up 0.9% [1] Market Analysis - Future pig supply is expected to increase, and spot prices will continue to be under pressure. The improvement in consumption is uncertain. Although the market believes that pig inventory has been significantly reduced, the overall reduction in pig production capacity is not obvious at present and needs continuous attention [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2509 contract yesterday was 3,189 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of - 88.00 yuan from the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.69% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.02 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous trading day; in Shandong, it was 3.05 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 2.62 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] - Inventory: On August 14, the national production - link inventory was 0.85 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous trading day, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.05 days, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Egg prices have declined, leading to increased replenishment enthusiasm among food companies and low - price stocking by traders. Tourism and catering consumption remains strong, and consumption demand is on the rise. The spot market is moving smoothly, and egg consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. Spot prices are expected to fluctuate upward this week, but the impact of cold - storage egg出库 on the spot market needs to be closely monitored [4] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Neutral [1] - Soybean Meal: Bullish [1] - Oils: Bullish [1] - Eggs: Neutral [1] - Pigs: Neutral [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The corn futures market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, with the 9 - month contract approaching the delivery month. The spot market has different price performances in various regions, and the futures price is affected by policies and fundamentals. Short - term attention should be paid to the possible resistance and decline of the 9 - month contract price [1]. - The CBOT soybean closed lower due to export demand concerns. The domestic soybean meal mainly fluctuates, and the strategy is to participate in short - term long positions and hold the 1 - 5 positive spread [1]. - The BMD palm oil closed lower due to profit - taking, and the ICE rapeseed futures also declined. The domestic vegetable oils followed the external market down. The oils market is in a bullish trend, and the strategy is to hold long positions and sell put options [1]. - The egg futures have completed the position transfer. The spot price is mostly stable with individual declines. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but there is a possibility of seasonal price rebound in the future, with the high point likely to be lower than last year [1][2]. - The pig futures main contract fluctuated weakly. The spot price showed a mixed pattern of rise, stability, and decline. The short - term spot price is supported by the strong price - holding intention of breeders, and there is a possibility of a low - level rebound in the future [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: The 9 - month contract of corn futures has reduced positions and risen this week, with the main funds shifting to forward contracts. The spot price in the Northeast is slightly weak, in the North China it is stable with limited adjustments, and in the sales area it is generally stable with individual port rebounds. Technically, the futures price is in a stalemate after a short - term decline and then stabilizes and rises. There is a need to pay attention to the game between policies and fundamentals [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean closed lower. The new US soybean net sales were higher than expected, while the old - crop net sales were negative due to contract cancellations. The Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase. Domestically, the soybean meal fluctuates, and the strategy is short - term long participation and holding the 1 - 5 positive spread [1]. - **Oils**: The BMD palm oil closed lower due to profit - taking, and an Indonesian organization is lobbying to postpone the B50 biodiesel policy. The ICE rapeseed futures declined. The US soybean oil followed the US soybean down. The domestic vegetable oils followed the external market. The oils market is in a bullish trend with rich market themes and high uncertainty [1]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures have completed position transfer. The 2509 contract declined, and the 2510 contract rose slightly. The spot price is mostly stable with individual declines. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but there is a possibility of seasonal price rebound in the future [1][2]. - **Pigs**: The pig futures main contract 2511 declined. The spot price showed a mixed pattern. The short - term spot price is supported by breeders' price - holding intention, and there is a possibility of a low - level rebound in the future [2]. Market Information - India's palm oil and sunflower oil imports in July decreased compared to June, while the total vegetable oil imports increased [3]. - The US 2024/2025 annual soybean and corn export sales as of August 7 were far lower than market expectations [3]. - Brazil's 2024/25 annual soybean production is expected to reach 1.69657 billion tons, and the corn production is expected to be 13.7005 million tons [3]. - The corn planting area in the central crop area of Argentina in the 2025/26 year is expected to increase by 15% - 20% [3]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through charts [5][7][8][11]. - **Contract Basis**: The report presents the basis of corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through charts [13][17][23][25].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends. Oils are experiencing a high - level correction, with the overall upward trend of palm oil not materially changed. The far - month main contract of live pigs has tumbled due to high supply and weak demand. Cotton prices are rising steadily supported by low inventory and imports. Different agricultural products have their own supply - demand and market factors influencing their price movements [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Oils have corrected from high levels. After a previous sharp rise, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange issued a risk warning letter for rapeseed oil, cooling market sentiment. Rapeseed oil dropped significantly, dragging down palm oil and soybean oil. However, there are still positive factors in the palm oil producing areas, so the adjustment range may be limited, and the overall upward trend remains unchanged. - The far - month main contract of live pigs has broken through key levels and fallen sharply because of high inventory, increased planned shipments by group pig enterprises, and weak summer demand. - Cotton prices are rising steadily, supported by low inventory and imports [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil has corrected from high levels. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's risk warning letter for rapeseed oil cooled market sentiment, causing palm oil to adjust. Malaysia's palm oil export data in August was strong, but production is expected to remain high. In the domestic market, high costs support the spot price, and the import profit window has opened recently. Technically, the contract is still in a strong position, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - position long orders [2]. 3.2.2 Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil has adjusted after a continuous rise. The USDA's August supply - demand report was unexpectedly positive, but recent concentrated arrivals of imported soybeans and high - level oil mill crushing may limit the increase. Technically, it is still in a strong position, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - position long orders [4]. 3.2.3 Live Pigs - The main 2511 contract of live pigs has fallen sharply, entering a downward trend. Supply is abundant in August, and demand is weak due to high temperatures and alternative consumption. Technically, it is in a weak position, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - position short orders [6]. 3.2.4 Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton has continued to rise. Low commercial and industrial inventories and the delayed issuance of import quotas support the price. Although the downstream textile industry is in the off - season, the contract is technically strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - position long orders [9]. 3.2.5 Eggs - The main 2510 contract of eggs has first declined and then risen, showing a volatile market. High egg - laying hen inventory, continuous出库 of cold - storage eggs, and increased old - hen slaughter are the main factors. Technically, it is in a weak position, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - position short orders [10][12]. 3.2.6 Red Dates - The main 2601 contract of red dates is fluctuating at high levels. The market is concerned about the expected supply contraction of new - season red dates due to adverse weather. The upcoming Mid - Autumn and National Day stocking periods are expected to drive inventory reduction. Technically, it is in a strong position, and the recommended strategy is to hold long orders [13][15]. 3.2.7 White Sugar - The main 2601 contract of white sugar is rising in a volatile manner. Favorable domestic sales data and low industrial inventory support the price, but the expected concentrated arrival of imported sugar may suppress it. Technically, it is in a strong position, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - position long orders [16]. 3.2.8 Corn - The main 2511 contract of corn has encountered resistance in its rebound. Continuous auctions of imported corn by Sinograin, wheat substitution, and good growth of new corn limit its rebound space. Technically, it is in a weak position, and the recommended strategy is to hold short orders [18]. 3.2.9 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal is adjusting at high levels, but the upward trend remains. The USDA's August supply - demand report was positive, but there is profit - taking pressure. The expected tight supply of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter and rising import costs support the price. Technically, it is in a strong position, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - position long orders [21]. 3.2.10 Apples - The main 2510 contract of apples is adjusting at high levels. Low inventory supports the price. The procurement situation of early - maturing apples varies by region. Technically, it is in a strong position, and the recommended strategy is to place long orders on dips [22][24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral. The lower inventory and upcoming textile peak season provide strong support for cotton prices, but the ample global supply in the new year and potential regulatory policies limit the upside [2] - Sugar: Neutral. Short - term range - bound, long - term bearish [5] - Pulp: Neutral. The current pulp market fundamentals have no significant improvement, and short - term prices are hard to break out of the bottom [7] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The USDA report is bullish, causing cotton prices to rise. However, the global cotton market in the 2025/26 season may still be in a loose supply pattern. In China, short - term cotton prices have bottom support, but the long - term outlook is bearish due to new cotton listing and uncertain demand [1] - Sugar: The Brazilian data is bearish, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures face short - term upward pressure due to factors like slow domestic sales and large imports [4] - Pulp: The supply of pulp is under pressure in the second half of 2025, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to remain at a low level [6] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 14,130 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton (+1.07%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,057 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,188 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [1] Sugar - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5657 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton (+0.87%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5855 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [3] - Export: Brazil exported 392.08 million tons of sugar in August 2024, with a daily average of 17.82 million tons [3] Pulp - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2511 contract was 5302 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton (+0.72%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5860 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [5] Group 4: Market Analysis Cotton - International: The USDA report is bullish, but the global cotton market in 2025/26 may have loose supply. The US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve, and prices will follow the macro - market sentiment [1] - Domestic: Short - term cotton prices have bottom support, but the long - term outlook is bearish due to new cotton listing and uncertain demand [1] Sugar - International: Brazilian data is bearish, and the raw sugar futures are in bottom - range oscillation with limited rebound space [4] - Domestic: The domestic sugar market has increasing pressure due to slower sales, large imports, and falling processed sugar prices [4] Pulp - Supply: There is supply pressure in the second half of 2025, with high port inventories and expected decline in imports [6] - Demand: The demand is weak both at home and abroad, and the improvement in the second half of the year is limited [6] Group 5: Strategies - Cotton: Adopt a neutral strategy, as the price has a bottom and upside limited [2] - Sugar: Adopt a neutral strategy, with short - term range - bound and long - term bearish views [5] - Pulp: Adopt a neutral strategy, as the short - term price is hard to break out of the bottom [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the futures market, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information (such as weather, international and domestic supply - demand), macro - news, and capital flows. It presents data on various commodities like palm oil, soybeans, and their related products, as well as currency exchange rates and shipping freight indices. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - Overnight closing prices, daily and overnight price changes of various futures contracts are presented, including palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. Currency exchange rates and their changes are also provided [1]. 02 Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans from different origins are also included [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information -产区天气 - - US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - normal temperatures and mostly above - median precipitation from August 17th to 21st. The US Midwest will have more precipitation in the future, with moderate precipitation opportunities in the next 7 - 10 days, which can benefit crops but may also cause flooding problems [5][8]. -国际供需 - - Global 2025/26 palm oil production, exports are expected to be flat compared to last month's estimates, while ending stocks are slightly revised down. Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 increased by 65.25% compared to the same period last month. Analysts expect Malaysia's palm oil inventory to remain high. India's 2024/25 soybean oil imports are expected to soar by 60%, while palm oil imports may drop to a five - year low. USDA's estimates for US 2025/26 soybean harvest area, yield, production, and ending stocks are different from market expectations. Brazil's August soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts are revised upwards. EU's 2025/26 imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed are lower than last year [10][12][14]. -国内供需 - - On August 12th, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 8% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the oil - mill operating rate decreased slightly. The national soybean oil port inventory increased. The estimated 2024/25 edible vegetable oil imports are revised down, mainly due to the high price of palm oil [17]. 04 Macro - News -国际要闻 - - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 6.6%, with a 93.4% chance of a 25 - basis - point cut. US economic data such as CPI, NFIB small - business confidence index, and retail sales are reported. The US Treasury Secretary suggests a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September. OPEC adjusts its 2026 global crude oil demand growth forecast. The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment and current situation indices change [20][21]. -国内要闻 - - On August 12th, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate increased (yuan depreciated). The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds. China initiates anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports. A personal consumer loan fiscal subsidy policy is introduced [23]. 05 Capital Flows - On August 12, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 9.826 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 1.858 billion yuan, while stock - index futures had a net outflow of 11.684 billion yuan. Capital flows for various futures varieties are presented [25][26].