Market Performance - The corn May contract closed at 2322 CNY/ton with a daily increase of 0.13%, showing a brief uptick before the Spring Festival amid weak purchasing and sales [4][14] - The soybean meal market is neutral, with overseas markets assessing potential upward adjustments in U.S. soybean demand for the 2025/26 season, leading to a rise in CBOT soybean prices [4][14] Downstream Demand - Deep processing enterprises have begun to issue notices for reduced or halted purchases, indicating that pre-holiday stockpiling is largely complete; feed enterprises are primarily executing previous contracts with weak purchasing intentions [4][14] Market Focus & Summary - Post-holiday, the main divergence in market sentiment will focus on whether the northeastern grain supply will increase significantly with rising temperatures, and the real demand elasticity of corporate inventories in this context. The corn May contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2250–2275 CNY/ton before the holiday, with directional choices pending further validation of supply release and demand recovery after the holiday [4][14] - The Rosario Grain Exchange has raised its soybean production forecast for this year to 48 million tons from the previous 47 million tons, despite a decline in crop quality due to dry weather [5][15] Egg Market - The egg market is neutral to slightly bullish as various channels have paused current spot price quotes. The near-month contracts have seen significant increases following a weak reality check, with the 03 contract price reflecting support near cost levels [7][17] Operational Strategies - For the egg market, long positions in distant contracts like 2605 and 2606 may have value after the convergence of premiums, and attention can be given to opportunities arising from the expansion of price differences [8][18] - In the live pig market, the average price in major production areas is approximately 11.52 CNY/kg, with a planned slaughter volume of 22.92 million heads in February, reflecting a 17.73% decrease from January [9][19]

二、市场信息 1、据农业农村部监测，2 月 9 日"农产品批发价格 200 指数"为 129.51，比上周五下降 0.25 个点，"菜篮 子"产品批发价格指数为 132.33，比上周五下降 0.29 个点。截至今日 14:00 时，全国农产品批发市场猪肉 平均价格为 18.34 元/公斤，与上周五持平；牛肉 66.08 元/公斤，比上周五下降 0.6%；羊肉 64.51 元/公斤， 比上周五上升 0.1%；鸡蛋 8.39 元/公斤，比上周五下降 1.4%；白条鸡 17.18 元/公斤，比上周五下降 1.3%。 农产品日报（2026 年 2 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 点评 | 品种 | | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周三，玉米主力 | | 2605 增仓上行，日线以长阳线收盘，期价大涨突破震荡区间上 | | | 沿，宏观和资金引领占据主导。本周受大豆上涨影响，玉米期价止跌上行。春节 | | | | | 前一周玉米 | | 3 月合约持仓向 5 月转移，现货休市等待期货方向指引。目前，市场 | | | 购销已不活跃，东北玉米价格以稳定为主。基层农户售粮积极性不高，产 ...

农产品日报 | 2026-02-12 标猪供应充足，肥标价差走扩 当前全国生猪均价延续震荡下行态势，单日跌幅较前一交易日大幅收窄，区域市场呈现分化特征，企稳回升区域 数量有所增加，且主要集中于北方产区。从时间节点来看，南北小年相继结束后，市场正式进入春节前最后出栏 窗口期，行业对节后市场走势预期整体转向谨慎，预期下行传导至养殖端，推动出栏积极性提升。普遍采取降重 出栏、加速去库存的经营策略，叠加前期压栏生猪逐步释放，当前市场标猪供给持续充裕，对现货价格形成常态 化压制。消费在小年节日效应支撑下，屠宰量维持高位，然受制于下游增量相对于供应增量仍显承接不足，屠企 多普遍采取降价收购策略。后续需继续跟踪猪价的承压程度以及节后首周的出栏恢复情况。 策略 中性 风险 疫病情况 鸡蛋观点 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2605合约11555元/吨，较前交易日变动+85.00元/吨，幅度+0.74%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格12.12元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.09元/公斤，现货基差 LH05+565，较前交易日变动-175；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.76元/公斤，较前交易日变动- ...

| 期货价格(主力日收盘) | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | | 涨跌幅周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 2773 | 2734 | 39 | 1. 43% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 3162 | 3152. 29 | 9.71 | 0. 31% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 3100 | 3100 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 花生粕 | 元/吨 | 3237.5 | 3237.5 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 葵花粕 | 元/吨 | 2260 | 2260 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 芝麻粕 | 元/吨 | 3500 | 3500 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 棕榈粕 | 元/吨 | 1433. 33 | 1433. 33 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 椰子粕 | 元/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Palm Oil**: With limited fundamental drivers, it is expected to undergo a sideways adjustment [2][4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The report lacks highlights, and it is likely to trade within a range [2][4]. - **Soybean Meal**: After the overnight slight increase in US soybeans, the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [2][11]. - **Soybean**: The market is strong, and attention should be paid to changes in positions [2][11]. - **Corn**: It is expected to be slightly bullish and fluctuate upwards [2][14]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to low - basis opportunities [2][18]. - **Cotton**: It is expected to maintain a sideways trend before the holiday [2][23]. - **Eggs**: It is expected to undergo a sideways adjustment [2][27]. - **Hogs**: The peak - season stocking is over, and the futures price has a premium over the small - standard warehouse receipts [2][35]. - **Peanuts**: It is expected to trade sideways [2][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the palm oil main contract on the day session was 8,906 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.38%, and 8,868 yuan/ton at night, down 0.43%. The trading volume decreased by 91,226 lots, and the open interest decreased by 7,350 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,950 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The basis was 44 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From February 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 9.16% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.3%, and the production decreased by 7.58%. Indonesia's decision to suspend the expansion of biodiesel blending ratio and the expectation of increased production in the coming months may put pressure on palm oil prices, but strong demand and overall slowdown in production growth may limit the downside. The GAPKI expects palm oil prices to fluctuate between 4,100 - 4,400 ringgit per ton in the first half of 2026 and then decline to 4,000 - 4,300 ringgit in the second half [5][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [10] Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of DCE soybean 2605 was 4,519 yuan/ton during the day session, up 60 yuan (+1.35%), and 4,563 yuan at night, up 62 yuan (+1.38%). The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2605 was 2,773 yuan/ton during the day session, up 40 yuan (+1.46%), and 2,768 yuan at night, up 10 yuan (+0.36%). The trading volume of soybean meal was 4.54 million tons per day, and the inventory was 88.16 million tons per week [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 11, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to technical buying and expectations of Chinese demand. Brazil has started harvesting a record - high soybean crop, but the prospect of China buying more US soybeans has boosted the futures market. Heavy rain in Brazil's Mato Grosso state has raised concerns about soybean quality [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and that of soybean is +1 [13] Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2603 was 2,298 yuan/ton during the day session, up 1.37%, and 2,303 yuan at night, up 0.22%. The trading volume increased by 54,540 lots, and the open interest decreased by 47,441 lots. The closing price of C2605 was 2,316 yuan/ton during the day session, up 1.58%, and remained unchanged at night. The trading volume increased by 402,301 lots, and the open interest increased by 199,841 lots [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn bulk shipping port price remained flat at 2,290 - 2,300 yuan/ton, and the container - shipped first - class grain port price remained flat at 2,310 - 2,330 yuan/ton. The price in Guangdong Shekou also remained flat. The price of deep - processed corn in the Northeast decreased in some areas, while the price in North China increased slightly [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [17] Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 13.84 cents/pound, down 0.28 cents. The mainstream spot price was 5,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures main contract price was 5,266 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The 15 - spread was 46 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the 59 - spread was - 9 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the mainstream spot basis was 64 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of January 31, the sugar production in the 25/26 season in India increased by 17% year - on - year. Brazil exported 2.02 million tons in January, a 2.1% year - on - year decrease. China imported 580,000 tons of sugar in December, an increase of 190,000 tons. As of the end of January, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season was 4.03 million tons, a decrease of 790,000 tons [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [21] Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,745 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.61%, and 14,815 yuan at night, up 0.47%. The trading volume decreased by 134,609 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5,168 lots. The closing price of CY2605 was 20,590 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.73%, and 20,650 yuan at night, up 0.29%. The trading volume decreased by 1,999 lots, and the open interest increased by 1,045 lots [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The spot trading of cotton was light, and the basis was generally stable. The cotton yarn market was in the final stage, and textile enterprises will concentrate on taking holidays in the second half of the week, resulting in a shrinking trading volume. ICE cotton futures continued to rebound slightly, and the near - month warehouse receipts continued to increase [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [25] Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2603 was 2,923 yuan/500 kg, up 0.31%, with a trading volume decrease of 18,675 lots and an open - interest decrease of 17,042 lots. The closing price of egg 2604 was 3,156 yuan/500 kg, up 0.32%, with a trading volume increase of 3,339 lots and an open - interest increase of 411 lots [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [28] Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 12,280 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the Sichuan spot price was 10,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Guangdong spot price was 11,660 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of hog 2603 was 10,845 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the closing price of hog 2605 was 11,555 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the closing price of hog 2607 was 12,260 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [32]. - **Market Information**: Guangxi Yangxiang registered 100 lots of warehouse receipts for the March contract; Dekang registered 525 lots; Fuyuan registered 22 lots; and Muyuan registered 80 lots [33]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [34] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Henan Baisha general peanuts was 7,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Xingcheng Xiaoriben peanuts was 8,660 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Sudan refined peanuts was 8,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of PK603 was 8,020 yuan/ton, down 0.32%; the closing price of PK605 was 7,970 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [36]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, Nanyang Baisha general peanuts were around 3.6 - 3.8 yuan/jin, and Kaifeng large peanuts were around 3.9 - 3.95 yuan/jin. In Jilin, 308 general peanuts were around 4.6 - 4.7 yuan/jin. In Liaoning, 308 general peanuts were around 4.5 - 4.6 yuan/jin. In Shandong, most areas had basically ended pre - holiday trading [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [38]

农产品日报（2026 年 2 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周一，玉米窄幅震荡，3 月合约持仓向 5 月转移，春节前价格波动性下降。目前， | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场购销已不活跃，东北玉米价格以稳定为主。基层农户售粮积极性不高，产区 烘干塔随行收购积极性也一般，部分烘干塔已停收。 周末华北地区玉米价格整 | | | | 体稳定，个别企业窄幅调整，主流价格暂稳。随着春节临近，市场购销活跃度逐 | | | 玉米 | 渐降低，下游企业补库基本完成，按需采购为主。 周末销区市场玉米维持平稳 | 震荡偏弱 | | | 运行。周末市场交易偏少，多数下游企业备货基本完成，按照现有安全库存灵活 | | | | 调整收购策略。整体来看，春节假期前，玉米价格将维持窄幅震荡的格局，出现 | | | | 大幅波动的可能性较小。技术上看，春节假期临近，期货市场资金离场期价波动 | | | | 性下降，短线参与为主。 | | | | 周一，CBOT 大豆结束四连升，受累于巴西大豆收割持续推进，以及上周涨势后 | | | | 出现获利了结。此外，投资者在供需报告前调整头寸。本周市 ...

期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2605合约11565元/吨，较前交易日变动-60.00元/吨，幅度-0.52%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格12.47元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.06元/公斤，现货基差 LH05+905，较前交易日变动-190；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 12.43元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.04元/公斤，现货基差LH05+865，较前交易日变动-60；四川 地区外三元生猪价格10.87元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.25元/公斤，现货基差LH05+-695，较前交易日变动-590。 据农业农村部监测，2月9日"农产品批发价格200指数"为129.51，比上周五下降0.25个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为132.33，比上周五下降0.29个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.34元/公斤，与上周五持平；牛肉66.08 元/公斤，比上周五下降0.6%；羊肉64.51元/公斤，比上周五上升0.1%；鸡蛋8.39元/公斤，比上周五下降1.4%；白 条鸡17.18元/公斤，比上周五下降1.3%。 市场分析 周初生猪价格延续周末偏弱震荡走势，全国各区域价格以震荡下行为主，其中北方地区均价跌幅相 ...

Group 1: Soybean Meal - CBOT soybean ended a four-day rise due to ongoing soybean harvesting in Brazil and profit-taking after last week's gains [2][9] - Brazil's soybean harvest is at 16%, compared to 15% during the same period last year [2][9] - Domestic soybean meal market is experiencing fluctuations with high import costs supporting prices, while ample domestic supply increases inventory pressure [2][9] Group 2: Palm Oil - BMD palm oil prices increased, following the upward trend in surrounding markets, as traders await the MPOB report [10] - January palm oil inventory in Malaysia is expected to decrease to 2.91 million tons, a 4.64% month-on-month reduction [10] - Palm oil production is projected to decline by 12% to 1.61 million tons, while exports increased by 14.9% to 1.79 million tons [10] Group 3: Live Pig - Live pig futures showed weak fluctuations, with the near-month contract 2603 continuing to decline, closing down 0.52% at 11,565 yuan/ton [11] - The average daily price of live pigs in China was 11.66 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.3 yuan/kg week-on-week [11] - Supply is currently abundant, leading to downward pressure on pig prices, with seasonal demand expected to recover post-Chinese New Year [11] Group 4: Eggs - Egg futures experienced slight adjustments, with the main contract 2603 closing up 0.17% at 2,909 yuan/500 kg [12] - The national average egg price was 3.42 yuan/jin, a slight increase of 0.01 yuan/jin week-on-week [12] - As the Chinese New Year approaches, downstream purchasing activity is subdued, and some regions have halted pricing [12] Group 5: Corn - Corn prices showed narrow fluctuations, with the March contract transitioning to May, and market activity declining ahead of the Chinese New Year [13] - Prices in Northeast China remained stable, with farmers showing low enthusiasm for selling [13] - Overall, corn prices are expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation pattern before the holiday, with limited potential for significant volatility [13]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：毕慧 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0268536 投资咨询证号：Z0011311 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：bihui@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 生猪 2026 年 2 月 9 日 豆类日报 节前市场资金谨慎 豆类油脂震荡偏弱 核心观点 2 月 9 日，豆类油脂整体震荡偏弱。豆一期价冲高回落，期价围绕 10 日 均线窄幅波动，资金变化不大；豆二期价震荡偏弱,期价冲高回落，承压于 5 日均线压力，资金变化不大；豆粕期价震荡偏强，期价承压于 20 日、30 日和 60 日均线压力，资金变化不大；菜粕期价震荡偏弱，期价承压于 5 日均线压 力，资金变化不大。油脂期价维持震荡，豆油期价围绕 5 日和 20 日均线交汇 震荡为主，资金变化不大；棕榈油期价震荡偏弱，期价暂获 20 日均线支撑， 承压于 5 日均线压力，资金变化不大；菜籽油期价震荡偏弱，期价承压于 5 日 和 60 日均线压力，下方暂获 20 日均线支撑，资金变化不大。 豆类市场外弱内稳，节前市场交投谨慎。巴西新豆收割进度快 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends, with white sugar rising strongly and soybean meal declining. Other products such as live pigs, eggs, palm oil, and cotton also present different market conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) White Sugar - **Market Situation**: White sugar shows a pattern of weak overseas and strong domestic markets. The Zhengzhou white sugar main contract 2605 has risen strongly, supported by lower - than - expected sugar production in domestic main producing areas and year - end demand. Overseas, the US raw sugar futures price has hit a new low due to global sugar supply surplus. As of the end of January, Guangxi's white sugar production was 402.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 78.8 million tons, and the sugar production rate decreased by 1.14 percentage points year - on - year [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main contract 2605 has risen strongly, standing above the moving average system, with the MACD red column expanding, showing a strong technical trend. - **Strategy**: Look for support levels to participate in with light - position long orders, with a stop - loss reference of 5180 - 5200 [2]. (2) Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The soybean meal main contract 2605 first rose and then declined, testing the lower edge of the trading range again. Before the USDA monthly supply - demand report, the US soybean futures price pulled back, and domestic oil mills' high - level soybean crushing led to sufficient supply. However, during the last week before the Spring Festival, soybean crushing plants will shut down for holidays, and the supply pressure may ease, while downstream enterprises have completed their inventory preparations [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main contract 2605 has fallen back to test the 5 - day moving average at 2729, but the lower edge of the trading range is expected to provide support, and the trading range characteristics remain unchanged. - **Strategy**: Participate in with light - position long orders near the lower edge of the trading range, with a stop - loss reference of 2700 - 2710 [3]. (3) Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: The live pig main contract 2605 hit a new low, with the market being weak. As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply of suitable - weight pigs has increased due to farmers' expectations of post - festival demand decline and the need to lock in profits. Although the demand from slaughterhouses has increased, the demand growth is lower than expected due to the substitution of beef, mutton, and poultry [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main contract 2605 continued to fall to a new low, with the MACD green column continuing, showing a weak technical trend. - **Strategy**: Participate in short - selling [5]. (4) Eggs - **Market Situation**: The egg main contract 2603 fluctuated in a narrow range at a low level. The Spring Festival inventory preparation is basically over, and the demand is in a gap period, with slower egg sales and increased inventory in production and circulation. The egg - laying hen inventory is relatively high, and the culling of old hens has slowed down, resulting in slow capacity reduction [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main contract 2603 fluctuates at a low level, with the futures price running below the moving average system, showing a weak technical trend. - **Strategy**: Place light - position short orders [7]. (5) Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The palm oil main contract 2605 fluctuated in a narrow range. The market is waiting for the MPOB monthly supply - demand report. Due to the increase in Malaysian palm oil production and the decrease in exports in January, the market expects the inventory to decline at the end of January. In China, the pre - festival inventory preparation for edible oils is coming to an end, the palm oil inventory is still high, and the spot trading is light [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main contract 2605 first declined and then rose, fluctuating in a narrow range, with the futures price closing near the 20 - day moving average, and the MACD green column expanding after a death cross, showing a weak technical trend. - **Strategy**: Conduct short - term trading before the release of the MPOB report [10]. (6) Cotton - **Market Situation**: The cotton main contract 2605 first rose and then declined, closing with a small negative line, still in a sideways pattern. The expectation of a reduction in Xinjiang's cotton - planting area has been digested, and the market speculation has cooled down. As the Spring Festival approaches, textile enterprises' new order volume has decreased, and the intention to replenish inventory before the festival has declined. The national commercial inventory has decreased slightly. As of February 6, the cotton commercial inventory was 5.5272 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.15%, but higher than the same period last year and the five - year average [11][13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main contract 2605 closed with a small negative line, running below the short - term moving average, continuing the sideways fluctuation pattern. - **Strategy**: Conduct short - term trading for the time being [13].