| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年9月29日 | | | | 壬泽辉 | Z0019938 | | 臣治 | | | | | | | | 9月26日 | | 0月25日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏一级 8470 | | 8440 | 30 | 0.36% | | 期价 | Y2601 8162 | | 8192 | -30 | -0.37% | | 墓差 | Y2601 308 | | 248 | 60 | 24.19% | | 现货墓差报价 | 01+220 江苏1月 | | 01+230 | -10 | r | | 仓单 | 25534 | | 25534 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | | 9月26日 | | 9月25日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 广东24度 9230 | | 9170 | 60 | 0.65% | | 期分 | P2601 9236 | | 9222 | 14 | ...

农产品早报 2025-09-29 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 斯小伟 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周五美豆震荡，阿根廷降价销售告一段落，市场重新交易新作产量。周末国内豆粕现货稳定，华东抱 2900 元/吨持平。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内豆粕成交一般，提货较好，不过周尾现货成交提货均回落较多， 上周国内压榨大豆 227 万吨，本周预计压榨 176 万吨。 杨泽元 阿根廷短期出口了大量豆粕、大豆，目前因出口目标达到已取消出口税，不过对国际豆粕的冲击仍较大。 巴西方面升贴水暂稳。总体来看，进口大豆成本受到美豆低估值、中美贸易关系及巴西种植季节交易的 支撑，但上方也面临全球蛋白原料供应过剩、巴西或持续扩大种植面积以及中美关系若缓和引发短期供 应 ...

【豆一】 国产大豆盘面延续减仓价格反弹的势头,价格表现强于进口大豆,价差呈现扩大的走势。国产新季大豆上市在 即，新豆报价偏疲弱。进口大豆方面阿根廷农业政策本周波动较大，一周之内发生了从免税出口到出口税收减 免的政令结束。中国本周加快了阿根廷大豆的采购量。我们倾向于即使不采购美国大豆,叠加中国庞大的库存 缓冲和南美大豆的供应,后续国内豆类会进行逐步去库,容易使得明年一季度大豆供应趋紧,但是我们倾向大 豆供应链缺口风险会缓解，明年二季度大豆供应情况重点关注巴西新作情况。短期关注国产大豆收购量和收购 价格的指引以及进口大豆表现。 【大豆&豆粕】 今日连粕主力合约继续下跌0.81%。本周一阿根廷出口政策出台后连箱下跌较大。截至周三相关产品销售额达到 70亿美元上限，阿根廷取消豆类免税政策。期间国内大约进口了220多万吨阿根廷大豆。近期豆粕行情受国外政 策扰动太大,继续观望,长期我们继续谨慎看多连粕。 (豆油&棕榈油) | | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月26日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | な☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月26日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | な☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 標網油 | ☆☆☆ | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ☆☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ☆☆☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | なな☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆盘面延续减仓价格反弹的势头,价格表现强于进口大豆,价差呈现扩大的走势。国产新季大豆上市在 即，新豆报价偏疲弱。进口大豆方面阿根廷农业政策本周波动较大，一周之内发生了从免税出口到出口税收减 免的政令结束。中国本周加快了阿根廷大豆的采购量。我们倾向于即使不采购美国 ...

| 品种 | | | | | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | | | | | | | | 周四，玉米震荡收十字星，近月合约企稳反弹。11 | | | | | 月合约跌至 2150 整数支撑， 期价企稳反弹，与近月下跌相比，远期 1 月合约仍延续弱势表现。近期黑龙江、 | | | 内蒙古深加工收购价格持续下滑，新季玉米供应较为充足，深加工门前排队车辆 | | | | | | | | 较多，市场对于新季市场的预期较为一般。华北蒜茬玉米与夏玉米已大量涌入市 | | | | | | | | 场，虽前期阴雨天气延缓收割晾晒，但新粮整体上市量较去年同期显著增加。贸 | | | | | | | | 震荡下行 | | | | | 易商受市场看空情绪影响，囤粮意愿低迷，多采取 "随收随走" 策略，进一步 | | | 加剧市场供应压力。销区玉米价格整体以稳为主，部分港口现货供应偏紧，报价 | | | | | | | | 窄幅上调，加之受台风天气影响，到港速度放缓，支撑现货价格。下游提货节奏 | | | | | | | | 放缓，节前补库现象 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-09-26 供应压力持续释放，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2511合约12685元/吨，较前交易日变动-45.00元/吨，幅度-0.35%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格12.63元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.16元/公斤，现货基差 LH11-55，较前交易日变动-115；江苏地区 外三元生猪价格 12.88元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.01元/公斤，现货基差LH11+195，较前交易日变动+35；四川地 区外三元生猪价格12.29元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH11-395，较前交易日变动+45。 据农业农村部监测，9月25日"农产品批发价格200指数"为118.78，与昨天持平，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数为119.70， 与昨天持平。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为19.44元/公斤，比昨天下降0.8%；牛肉66.31元/公斤，比昨天上 升0.2%；羊肉61.87元/公斤，比昨天上升0.4%；鸡蛋8.48元/公斤，比昨天下降0.1%；白条鸡17.61元/公斤，比昨天 下降1.9%。 市场分析 综合来看，上周现货价 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about report industry investment ratings in the provided documents. Group 2: Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to face resistance at 4,450 ringgit and may fall back to 4,200 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures may follow suit and test 9,000 yuan. Argentine soybean oil exports will be taxed again, and domestic soybean supply is sufficient, so the basis of soybean oil is difficult to rise continuously [1]. Sugar - International raw sugar prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation due to oversupply. Zhengzhou sugar futures have broken through 5,500 yuan, but there is short - term rebound momentum while maintaining a bearish trend overall [2]. Cotton - The mid - term domestic cotton price may be under pressure due to weak seed cotton purchasing willingness and high hedging pressure on the supply side, as well as weak downstream demand [3]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation due to sufficient supply and potential demand increase during festivals [4]. Corn - The corn market will be under pressure in the short term. The price will likely decline with new grain listing, and the market will focus on the new grain acquisition rhythm and farmers' selling mentality [5]. Meal and Oilseeds - Argentine soybean exports have restarted the export tax, and US soybeans lack substantial positive factors. Domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the 1 - 5 spread may continue to weaken [8]. Pigs - The pig market is expected to maintain an oscillating adjustment, following the spot price with small fluctuations. Market supply is recovering, and demand is slowly picking up [10]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On September 25, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil rose by 0.96%, and the futures price of Y2601 rose by 1.14%. The basis of palm oil in Guangdong changed significantly, and the import profit decreased. The price of rapeseed oil also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil changed, and the soybean - palm oil spread and rapeseed - soybean oil spread also fluctuated [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2601 and 2605 decreased slightly, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 6.06%. The positions of the main contract and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning remained unchanged, and the price in Kunming increased slightly. The basis increased, and the import price of Brazilian sugar also changed slightly [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory also changed [2]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2605 and 2601 decreased slightly, and the 5 - 1 spread changed significantly. The positions of the main contract and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [3]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index of 3128B increased slightly, while the FC Index of M: 1% decreased [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial and industrial inventories of cotton decreased, and the import volume increased. The inventory days of yarn and grey cloth decreased, and the cotton shipping volume out of Xinjiang increased [3]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The prices of egg 11 and 10 contracts increased, and the 11 - 10 spread changed [4]. - **Spot Market**: The egg production area price decreased slightly, and the prices of egg - laying chicks remained unchanged, while the price of culled chickens increased [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The feed - to - egg ratio increased, and the breeding profit decreased significantly [4]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of corn 2511 increased slightly, and the basis and 11 - 3 spread changed. The number of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased significantly [5]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 increased slightly, and the basis and 11 - 3 spread changed [5]. Meal and Oilseeds - **Price Changes**: The spot and futures prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans all had corresponding increases, and the basis and import crushing margins also changed [8]. - **Spread Changes**: The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased, and the oil - meal ratio and soybean - rapeseed meal spread changed [8]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: The prices of live hog 2511 and 2601 decreased slightly, and the 11 - 1 spread decreased [10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of hogs in different regions changed, and the slaughter volume, white - strip price, and other indicators also had corresponding changes [10].

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月25日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 息一 | な☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ななな | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕櫚油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆盘面大量减仓,价格从阶段性低位回升。国产新季大豆上市在即,新豆报价偏疲弱。进口大豆方面随 阿根廷税收和海关机构发布信息称出口税收减免的政令结束。中国本周加快了阿根廷大豆的采购量。我们倾向 于中国短期积极采购阿根廷豆类,即使不采购美国大豆,叠加中国庞大的库存缓冲,后续国内豆类进行逐步去 库,从 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn is expected to oscillate downward. The new - season corn supply is abundant, trade merchants have low inventory - holding willingness, and the mid - term outlook remains weak despite a technical rebound of the November contract [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate. The price is affected by concerns over US soybean export demand and domestic pre - holiday stocking. Short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Oils are expected to oscillate. BMD palm oil trades in a narrow range, and domestic oils stop falling. Short - term participation is advised [1]. - Eggs are expected to oscillate. As the National Day holiday approaches, the demand peak is ending. The supply pressures the price, but the expectation of eliminating excess capacity provides some support. Light - position participation is recommended [1]. - Pigs are expected to oscillate. Pig supply is normal with some regional increases, and holiday demand has limited boosting effects. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [2]. Group 3: Summary of Market Information - In August 2025, the national industrial feed output was 29.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The proportion of corn in compound feed is 32.9%, and that of soybean meal in compound and concentrated feed is 14.3% [3]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the price limit ranges and trading margin levels of various futures contracts around the 2025 National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays [3]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will adjust the trading margin standards and price limit ranges of some futures contracts during the 2025 National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, and some contracts will return to pre - adjustment levels after the holiday [4]. Group 4: Summary of Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and basis charts, including those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads is provided [6][7][11][14][17][19][23]

苹果好货不足，红枣供需乏力 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约8288元/吨，较前一日变动-3元/吨，幅度-0.04%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格3.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-688，较前一日变动+3；陕西洛川70# 以上半商 品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01+1312，较前一日变动+3。 农产品日报 | 2025-09-24 市场要闻与重要数据 近期市场资讯，西部晚富士零星脱袋，目前因降雨推迟尚未大面积脱袋，早熟富士基本结束，其他中熟品种正常 交易，多按货给价。山东产区部分红将军陆续进入后期，小单车客商青睐价格较低的红将军货源，库存老富士受 到其它苹果品种冲击，交易不快。陕西延安洛川产区早熟富士70#以上市场主流价格3.8-4.1元/斤，一般货3.5-3.7元 /斤。中秋王70#以上主流4.2-4.3元/斤，秦脆70#以上主流4.8-5.2元/斤。山东栖霞产区果农80#以上统货2.1-3.0元/斤， 80#一二级条纹3.3-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.0-4.0元/斤。山东栖霞产 ...