Report Industry Investment Ratings - **豆一**: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **豆粕**: ★☆★, with a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - **豆油**: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **标油**: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market operability is poor, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] - **菜粕**: ★☆☆, being bullish, with a driving force for price increase but limited market operability [1] - **菜油**: ★☆☆, being bullish, with a driving force for price increase but limited market operability [1] - **玉米**: ★☆★, with a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - **生猪**: ★☆☆, being bearish, with a driving force for price decline but limited market operability [1] - **鸡蛋**: ★★☆, indicating a clear downward trend and the market is in the process of fermentation [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the agricultural product market is complex, with different products showing different price trends and investment opportunities. Some products are affected by supply - demand relationships, some by international trade policies, and others by weather and policy factors [2][3][6] Summary by Product Soybeans - **Domestic soybeans**: The short - term large number of auctions drags down the price. The price of domestic soybeans is relatively low in valuation, and short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuations of surrounding varieties and policy guidance [2] - **U.S. soybeans**: The new - season soybeans have a reduced planting area but an increased yield per unit, and the ending inventory decreases year - on - year, which boosts the price. There is a risk of high temperature and low precipitation in some areas in the short term [2] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The rapeseed series main contracts continue to be weak, and the rapeseed meal position increases significantly. The market has strong expectations for importing Australian rapeseed. If the trade between China and Australia grows rapidly after the new Australian rapeseed is launched in October, the rapeseed series futures prices may be under short - term pressure. The rapeseed series maintains a medium - term bullish view, but the futures prices may be under short - term pressure [2][5] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Indonesia is negotiating with the U.S. on zero - tariff palm oil imports. The Indonesian government will crack down on illegal natural resource exploitation, and 5 million hectares of palm plantations are under review. The price difference between Malaysian 24 - degree palm oil and Argentine soybean oil has rapidly narrowed. The long - term biodiesel policy in the U.S. remains unchanged, but there is a risk of phased demand fluctuations. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of position changes on price trends [3] Corn - The Dalian corn futures return to the downward trend. The U.S. corn continues to decline, with a good growth rate. The domestic corn supply remains high without policy guidance and under the background of the decline in U.S. corn prices. Corn may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [6] Pigs - The spot price of pigs is stable but weak, and the futures price rebounds slightly. The supply of pigs is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and the spot price is expected to continue to decline. The government may provide support when the price drops to a certain range. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging when the price rises [7] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is stable but strong, and the near - month futures price fluctuates at a low level. The trading logic of the egg futures market is still to reduce production capacity through price decline. Attention should be paid to the performance of the spot price, the game between peak - season demand and cold - storage egg release, and the progress of production capacity elimination [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Palm oil: With both supply and demand booming in the producing areas, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [2][5] - Soybean oil: The reduction in the US soybean planting area provides a theme for price increases [2][5] - Soybean meal: The USDA report is bullish, and the Dalian soybean meal futures follow the rise of US soybeans [2][12] - Soybean: The atmosphere in the soybean market is bullish, and the futures price may rebound [2][12] - Corn: It is expected to move in a range [2][17] - Sugar: Both domestic and international markets are showing upward momentum [2][20] - Cotton: News related to import quotas boosts cotton prices [2][25] - Eggs: There is a sentiment of price rebound in the spot market [2][30] - Hogs: Near - term contracts have position limits, and the industrial sector has a strong willingness to deliver [2][32] - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2][36] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,362 yuan/ton with a 1.56% increase, and the night - session closing price was 9,414 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase. For soybean oil, the daily - session closing price was 8,488 yuan/ton with a 0.38% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,516 yuan/ton with a 0.33% increase. Rapeseed oil had a significant increase, with the daily - session closing price at 9,802 yuan/ton (+2.23%) and the night - session closing price at 10,079 yuan/ton (+2.83%) [6] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Ministry of Commerce announced a preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, imposing a 75.8% deposit rate. ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed sharply lower, with the benchmark contract down 4.5%. The US will continue to suspend the 24% additional tariff on US imports for 90 days, retaining a 10% tariff. According to the USDA's August supply - demand report, the US 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to be 4.292 billion bushels, lower than the market expectation of 4.365 billion bushels. Indian 2024/25 soybean oil imports are expected to soar 60% year - on - year, while palm oil imports may reach a five - year low. Malaysian palm oil inventories are expected to remain high [7][9][10] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE soybean 2511 closed at 4,034 yuan/ton in the daily session (-0.71%) and 4,035 yuan/ton in the night session (+0.05%). DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3,091 yuan/ton in the daily session (+0.72%) and 3,092 yuan/ton in the night session (+0.59%) [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 12, CBOT soybean futures rose for the second consecutive day due to lower - than - expected production and tight supply. The USDA lowered the 2025/2026 soybean production forecast from 4.335 billion bushels in July to 4.292 billion bushels [12][14] Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of C2509 was 2,260 yuan/ton in the daily session (+0.04%) and 2,273 yuan/ton in the night session (+0.58%). The closing price of C2511 was 2,198 yuan/ton in the daily session (-0.14%) and 2,207 yuan/ton in the night session (+0.41%) [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn collection port price was 2,250 - 2,270 yuan/ton, and the container collection price was 2,330 - 2,350 yuan/ton. The price in Guangdong Shekou was stable. Corn prices in Northeast China were weak, while those in North China showed mixed trends [16] Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 16.95 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,950 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,608 yuan/ton [20] - **Macro and Industry News**: In Brazil, the sugar - cane crushing progress in the central - southern region accelerated in the first half of July. Indian monsoon precipitation decreased temporarily. Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase. China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June. CAOC estimated the domestic sugar production and consumption for the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons. ISO expected a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season [20][21][22] Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,980 yuan/ton in the daily session (+0.72%) and 14,090 yuan/ton in the night session (+0.79%). ICE cotton futures rose significantly due to the bullish USDA monthly supply - demand report, which lowered the 2025/26 US cotton planting area and production [25][27] - **Macro and Industry News**: The domestic cotton spot trading showed little change, with a slight improvement in some areas. The cotton yarn market improved slightly due to downstream restocking, but orders were still limited [26] Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of egg 2509 was 3,311 yuan/500 kilograms (-0.15%), and the closing price of egg 2601 was 3,559 yuan/500 kilograms (+0.11%) [30] Hogs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The Henan spot price was 13,880 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 13,350 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 15,290 yuan/ton. The closing price of hog 2509 was 13,965 yuan/ton (-5), and the closing price of hog 2511 was 14,230 yuan/ton (+90) [32] - **Market Logic**: The planned slaughter volume of group farms in August increased, while individual farmers had passive inventory. Demand growth was limited, and market pressure was high. The 9 - month contract entered the pre - delivery month, and the industrial delivery willingness increased [34] Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: The prices of important spot peanuts in Liaoning, Henan, and other places were stable. The closing price of PK510 was 8,080 yuan/ton (+0.05%), and the closing price of PK511 was 7,944 yuan/ton (+0.20%) [36] - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, the supply of peanuts was affected by rain, and the price was stable. In Jiangxi, the price was slightly stronger, while in other regions, the price was generally stable [36][37]

Report Investment Ratings - **Beans and Meal**: Large - range oscillation [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Large - range oscillation [1] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term consolidation [1] - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Jujube**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Live Pigs**: Cautiously bullish [1] Core Views - **Beans and Meal**: Amid the interplay of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs, it shows a large - range oscillation. This week, there was inventory reduction, and the good - quality rate of US soybeans decreased month - on - month, which is bullish. However, there is a risk of an upward adjustment in the US soybean yield in the August USDA report, so be cautious about chasing long positions. Focus on the next USDA monthly supply - demand report [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Under the influence of multiple long and short factors, it presents a large - range market. Although the global rapeseed output has recovered year - on - year, there is a risk of a yield reduction in Canada. The import of rapeseed from August to October is significantly lower year - on - year, and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price. But the improvement in Canadian rapeseed import profit exerts downward pressure. Pay attention to the planting weather, yield estimates, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - Australian developments [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the consumption outlook of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. However, there may be inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in July, which could suppress short - term prices. Consider the support of biodiesel policies and look for opportunities to go long on dips. Also, pay attention to domestic palm oil purchases in the past three months and beware of the risk of short - term squeeze [1][10]. - **Cotton**: The moisture condition in the main cotton - producing areas of the US continues to deteriorate slightly, and the export improvement expectation is limited. The ICE market is expected to move in a narrow range. In China, the guaranteed output of new cotton has increased, and the high - temperature risk has been lifted, but the risk of rainy days in the future needs attention. The commercial inventory is still being depleted rapidly, and there is no quota issuance at the import end, providing short - term support. The downstream may gradually enter the stocking period, and there is an expected marginal improvement in the spinning mill's operating rate and future orders. Before the new cotton is launched, the downside space is limited, and it is advisable to establish long positions on dips [1][14]. - **Jujube**: There are still significant differences in the market regarding the reduction range, and the possibility of an over - expected reduction is still in doubt, with speculation risks remaining. High - inventory pressure restricts the rebound height before the final output is determined. It is recommended to be cautious and try long positions [1][17]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous second - fattening sales and the acceleration of short - term sales rhythm have pushed down the price of live pigs. However, the recovery of the price difference between standard and fat pigs still drives some second - fattening speculation, so the near - term contracts are weak but have certain support. The medium - and long - term production capacity remains at a high level, and the gradual reduction of production capacity by leading enterprises may help the far - term contracts rise. The overall situation is "weak reality, strong expectation". Continue to pay attention to the reverse - spread strategy and the opportunity to establish long positions on dips for far - term contracts [1][20]. Summary by Directory Beans and Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.237 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 152,000 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 6.5559 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 100,000 tons, and the bean meal inventory was 1.0416 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons [3]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main bean meal contract closed at 3,045 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,015.43 yuan/ton, up 0.33% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 116,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 27,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,000 tons [7]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main rapeseed meal contract closed at 2,773 yuan/ton, up 1.24% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,725.26 yuan/ton, up 1.07% [5]. Palm Oil - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 582,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,300 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 3,400 tons [9]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main palm oil contract closed at 8,980 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The national average price was 9,108 yuan/ton, up 1.26% [8]. Cotton - **Inventory Data**: The cotton commercial inventory dropped to 2.0067 million tons, 210,000 tons lower than the same period. The inventory depletion has not significantly slowed down [13]. - **Price Data**: The main Zhengzhou cotton contract CF2509 decreased by 0.22% to 13,640 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price decreased by 0.10% to 15,193 yuan/ton [11][12]. Jujube - **Inventory Data**: This week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9,784 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 255 tons, and 4,379 tons higher than the same period [16]. - **Price Data**: The main jujube contract CJ2601 increased by 3.59% to 11,540 yuan/ton [16]. Live Pigs - **Inventory and Output Data**: In August, the planned output of Steel Union sample enterprises was 13.2257 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 5.26%. The national sample enterprises' live - pig inventory was 37.6332 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%, and the output was 10.9168 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 3.01% [18][19]. - **Price Data**: The main live - pig contract Lh2511 increased by 0.96% to 14,180 yuan/ton, and the domestic live - pig spot price remained stable at 14,340 yuan/ton [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybeans: ☆☆☆ (Buy) [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ (Buy) [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ (Strong Buy) [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ (Strong Buy) [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ☆☆☆ (Buy) [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ (Strong Buy) [1] - Corn: ★★★ (Strong Buy) [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ (Weak Buy) [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ (Weak Buy) [1] Core Views - The prices of "anti - involution" commodities continued to decline, and the focus of the market was on them, making agricultural products less attractive. The third - round economic and trade negotiations between China and the US suspended the addition of tariffs, which may be extended for 90 days. The US soybean is likely to have an early - stage high - yield expectation, and the market should be treated as volatile for now [3]. - For soybeans, the domestic soybean contract price showed a volatile correction. In the short term, attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance. The US Midwest has good weather, which is conducive to a high - yield of US soybeans [2]. - Regarding soybean oil and palm oil, the price difference between US and Chinese soybean oil may cause Chinese soybean oil to strengthen in the medium - term. Due to the long - term development of US and Indonesian biodiesel and the palm oil's entry into the production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter, a strategy of buying on dips is maintained [4]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, the prices of domestic and foreign rapeseed products are mainly in a range - bound state. The supply of new - season Canadian rapeseed is affected by weather, and the trade relationship between the US and Canada may affect the export of Canadian rapeseed products. In the short - term, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [6]. - For corn, the auction results of imported corn were average, and the corn futures continued to run weakly in a volatile manner. The US corn is under pressure, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom [7]. - For live pigs, the futures prices continued to correct, and the supply is expected to be sufficient in the medium - term. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging when prices are high [8]. - For eggs, the near - month futures prices of eggs continued to fall to new lows, while the far - month futures were relatively resistant to decline. If the egg prices can reduce production capacity through price drops in the second half of this year, the egg price cycle may reverse next year [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - The domestic soybean main - contract price showed a volatile correction. The total trading volume of domestic soybean purchase and sale was 40,302 tons, with a base price of 4,200 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 4,268 yuan/ton. In the short term, there is a risk of waterlogging in low - lying farmland in Northeast China. The US Midwest has good weather, and there may be a high - yield of US soybeans this year [2]. - The "anti - involution" commodities continued to decline, and the US soybean is under pressure. About 5% of the US soybean - producing areas were affected by drought as of July 29, and the good - quality rate of US soybeans is 70%, at a high level in the same period of history. There may be an early - stage high - yield expectation for US soybeans, and the market should be treated as volatile for now [3]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The price difference between US and Chinese soybean oil rose and then slightly declined this week. Historically, the price difference usually peaks and then falls in the third quarter. In the medium - term, Chinese soybean oil may strengthen to catch up with the overseas market. A strategy of buying on dips is maintained for soybean oil and palm oil, and attention should be paid to the risk of the oil - strong and meal - weak situation [4]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The prices of domestic and foreign rapeseed products are mainly in a range - bound state. The initial inventory of new - season Canadian rapeseed is low, and the yield is closely related to weather. The yield forecast by the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture and Agri - Food in late July is 17.8 million tons. The US has raised the tariff on Canadian goods, which may affect the export of Canadian rapeseed products. In the short - term, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [6]. Corn - Two auctions of imported corn were held by Sinograin today. The transaction rate of US genetically - modified corn was 31% with a volume of 186,200 tons, and that of Ukrainian non - genetically - modified corn was 68% with a volume of 8,600 tons. The corn futures continued to run weakly in a volatile manner. About 7% of the US corn - producing areas were affected by drought as of July 29, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom [7]. Live Pigs - The live - pig futures prices continued to correct, and the performance of related stocks in the breeding industry was in sync with the futures market. The short - term supply decreased, leading to a rise in spot prices. However, the supply is expected to be sufficient in the medium - term, and it is recommended that the industry conduct hedging when prices are high [8]. Eggs - The near - month futures prices of eggs continued to fall to new lows, while the far - month futures were relatively resistant to decline. The spot prices were stable with a weak trend. If the egg prices can reduce production capacity through price drops in the second half of this year, the egg price cycle may reverse next year, and the far - month futures prices have shown some signs of this expectation [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall weather for US soybeans is suitable, but there is a trend of high - temperature and dryness in Kansas in the second week, which needs further observation. Brazilian discounts have slightly declined but are still expected to be firm. The domestic market is in a inventory - building cycle, with the basis expected to fluctuate at a low level. The import cost is expected to support the 101 contract, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, with a focus on buying on dips [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The excellent - good rate of US soybeans has risen to 70%, higher than last year and market expectations, and the weather will be normal in the next two weeks. Under the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean supply reduction in July and August is expected to be over one million tons. The pressure of soybean meal inventory accumulation is expected to last until September, and the ship - booking from October to January is slow [7][8]. Demand - Pig and poultry farming are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, supporting feed demand. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, the proportion of feed addition has increased, and提货 is at a high level. Wheat has replaced corn in some areas, reducing the demand for protein. Recently, the trading volume of soybean meal has increased at low prices [8]. Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level; soybean meal is in an inventory - building cycle; the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8]. Price and Spread - For 43% soybean meal spot basis on July 16th, in Dalian it was - 37, in Rizhao - 157, in Tianjin - 57, in Zhangjiagang - 157 (down 9), in Dongguan - 177, in Zhanjiang - 127, and in Fangcheng - 137. The rapeseed meal spot basis was - 53 (up 2). The M9 - M1 spread was - 34, M9 - RM9 was 3, and RM9 - 1 was 344. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 324, and the futures price difference of the main contract was also provided [6][7]. International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1322, the futures crushing profit was 265 yuan/ton (down 5), and the import soybean futures gross profit was also mentioned. The CNF premium of imported soybeans was shown in the chart [7].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 10, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products - Report Focus: Analysis of various agricultural futures including palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybean, corn, sugar, cotton, eggs, live pigs, and peanuts 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Report Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Macro sentiment drives up prices, but limited upside from fundamentals [2] - **Soybean Oil**: Insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans, lacking upward drivers [2][5] - **Soybean Meal**: Concerns over trade and falling US soybean prices may lead to weak and volatile prices of Dalian soybean meal futures [2][12] - **Soybean**: Stable spot prices, volatile futures prices [2][12] - **Corn**: Undergoing shock adjustment [2][16] - **Sugar**: In a consolidation phase [2][23] - **Cotton**: Tight inventory expectations for old crops continue to support futures prices [2][27] - **Eggs**: Attention should be paid to the realization of spot prices during the peak season [2][34] - **Live Pigs**: Spot market sentiment is weakening [2][36] - **Peanuts**: Prices have support at the bottom [2][42] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices, trading volumes, open interests, and basis are provided. For example, the closing price of palm oil futures (day session) was 8,678 yuan/ton, up 0.39% [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: Analysts expect Malaysia's palm oil production to recover in the 2025/26 season, with a 0.5% year - on - year increase to 19.5 million tons. However, domestic consumption is expected to decline by 2% to 38 million tons [6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Both palm oil and soybean oil have a trend intensity of -1, indicating a bearish outlook [11] 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of DCE soybean, DCE soybean meal, CBOT soybean, and CBOT soybean meal, as well as spot prices and basis in different regions are presented. For instance, the closing price of DCE soybean meal 2509 (day session) was 2,947 yuan/ton, up 0.31% [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 9, CBOT soybean futures fell for the third consecutive day due to concerns over US trade policies and good weather conditions in the Midwest [12][15] - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal has a trend intensity of -1, while soybean has a trend intensity of 0 (only for the day - session main contract futures price fluctuation on the reporting day) [13] 3.3 Corn - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices in different regions such as Northeast, Jinzhou, North China, and Guangdong, as well as futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and basis of different contracts are given. For example, the closing price of C2509 (day session) was 2,319 yuan/ton, down 0.04% [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn port prices remained stable, while prices in Northeast and North China mostly declined. Imported sorghum and barley prices were also reported [18] - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [21] 3.4 Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: Prices of raw sugar, mainstream spot, and futures, as well as price spreads and basis are provided. For example, the raw sugar price was 16.56 cents/pound, up 0.43% [23] - **Macro and Industry News**: Pakistan approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar; Brazil's central - southern MIX increased significantly year - on - year; India's monsoon rainfall was higher than the long - period average; Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase [23] - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [25] 3.5 Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of CF2509, CY2509, and ICE cotton, as well as spot prices in different regions, trading volumes, open interests, and price spreads are presented. For example, the closing price of CF2509 (day session) was 13,830 yuan/ton, up 0.33% [28] - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was mostly quiet, and the overall basis remained stable. Cotton textile enterprises' market changed little, with weak orders and large losses for spinning enterprises [29] - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [32] 3.6 Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price spreads of different contracts, as well as spot prices in different regions, are provided. For example, the closing price of egg 2508 was 3,484 yuan/500 kg, up 1.07% [34] - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [34] 3.7 Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices in different regions such as Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong, as well as futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price spreads of different contracts are given. For example, the closing price of live pig 2509 was 14,265 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [38] - **Market Logic**: The current market is in the expectation trading stage. The expectation of state reserve purchases has formed a policy bottom sentiment, and the unanimous bullish expectation from July to August has driven the near - term sentiment. However, the futures price offers hedging profits, increasing market competition. Attention should be paid to the spot market performance in the future [40] - **Trend Intensity**: Live pigs have a trend intensity of 0 [39] 3.8 Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices in different regions such as Liaoning, Henan, and Xingcheng, as well as futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price spreads of different contracts are presented. For example, the closing price of PK510 was 8,176 yuan/ton, up 0.86% [42] - **Spot Market Focus**: In the spot market, the remaining inventory in production areas is almost exhausted, and the raw material acquisition is nearing the end. The prices of good - quality peanuts are firm, while the prices in most regions are stable or slightly weak [43] - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [46]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - 豆一: ★★★ [1] - 豆油: ★★★ [1] - 棕榈油: ★★★ [1] - 豆粕: ★★★ [1] - 菜粕: ★★★ [1] - 菜油: ★★★ [1] - 玉米: ★★★ [1] - 生猪: ★★★ [1] - 鸡蛋: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - 农产品市场各品种表现分化，短期需关注天气、政策和经贸谈判等因素指引，中长期部分品种受产能影响存在价格压力 [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybean and Its Products - 国产大豆主力合约减仓价格止跌反弹，东北产区天气利于生长，政策端购销双向交易成交好；进口美豆产区天气未来一周利于生长，短期关注天气和政策 [2] - 美国大豆优良率正常，未来两周产区降雨波动、温度略低，特朗普政府税率威胁执行推迟，连粕震荡，国内油厂压榨量高、豆粕库存上升，中美贸易不确定多，大连豆粕先以震荡对待 [3] - 棕榈油增仓上涨，豆油减仓震荡，6月马来西亚棕榈油产量降、需求增、库存降，关注MPOB报告和欧洲及黑海葵花籽天气，三季度海外棕榈油处增产周期，长期植物油逢低多配，短期关注政策和产区天气 [4] Rapeseed and Its Products - 菜粕低开高走小涨，菜油为植物油板块最弱，基本面围绕外盘菜籽产区天气和经贸谈判，国外产区天气风险降低菜籽承压，菜系单边趋势不明显，菜粕弱势震荡，菜系油粕比短期有向上波动空间 [6] Corn - 大连玉米震荡，市场聚焦阶段性供应，7月受中储粮拍卖影响供应上量价格走低，基层贸易商增加供应，山东现货增加，南北港库存攀升，需求疲软，玉米期货或继续震荡 [7] Livestock Products - 生猪期价回落，现货稳定，前期盘面上涨现货下跌后基差收窄，6月能繁母猪存栏上升，中长期猪价有下行压力 [8] Eggs - 鸡蛋主力08合约减仓反弹，7月为淡旺季转折点但今年中秋晚旺季或延后，现货报价稳定，8月合约对现货升水近千元，关注旺季启动和升水收敛，长期产能去化不足蛋价未见底 [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - With the gradual establishment of downstream inventory of domestic soybeans, the subsequent inventory accumulation speed of domestic soybeans may accelerate under the expectation of high - opening and high - pressing of oil mills, and the performance of 000 is expected to be volatile. - There is an expectation of rising import costs for soybean meal in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the November and January contracts. Also, pay attention to the results of the USDA planting area report at the end of June [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - On June 27, the basis of the main soybean meal contract in Dalian was - 26, down 70; in Tianjin, it was - 66, down 30; in Rizhao, it was - 106, down 10. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Zhangjiagang was - 126, down 50 [6]. - The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 29, down 9. The M9 - 1 spread was - 41, up 6 [6]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 387, and the price difference between the main contracts was 270, down 20 [7]. Supply Situation - In China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is expected to exceed 10 million tons in June, July, and August. The supply - demand balance sheet of new - crop US soybeans is tightening, and the good - excellent rate of US soybeans has declined to 66%, lower than the same period last year. The weather in the US in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean growth [7]. Demand Situation - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the inventory of poultry remains at a high level. The cost - performance of soybean meal is relatively high, and the proportion of feed addition has increased. The提货 volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein [7]. Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, domestic soybean and soybean meal continued to accumulate inventory. Currently, soybean inventory is at a high level in the same period of history, while soybean meal inventory is still at a low level in the same period of history, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal continue to rise [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bean Meal**: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - position trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Eggs**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including soybeans, bean meal, edible oils, corn, hogs, and eggs. It takes into account factors such as weather, geopolitics, policies, and supply - demand relationships, and provides corresponding investment suggestions and trend judgments for each product [2][3][7] Summaries by Agricultural Product Categories Soybeans and Related Products - **Domestic Soybeans**: The remaining domestic soybean inventory at the grass - roots level is low, and the policy is conducting auctions for supplementation. Short - term weather is favorable for domestic soybean growth. For imported soybeans, attention should be paid to the report on the new soybean planting area in the US at the end of June, and short - term weather is also beneficial for US soybean growth [2] - **Soybeans and Bean Meal**: The Israel - Iran war has led to a continuous rise in crude oil prices, driving up the prices of oil - related futures. US soybean growing conditions are favorable in the next two weeks. Domestically, soybean arrivals have increased since May, supply has become more abundant, and bean meal inventory is expected to continue to rise. The soybean market is currently in a volatile state, and attention should be paid to changes in the oil market and future weather [3] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: CBOT soybeans should be monitored for the new planting area report at the end of June. The short - term weather outlook is beneficial for US soybeans. CBOT soybean oil prices are strong. Domestically, there is a large arrival pressure in the short term, and the fourth - quarter procurement progress is slower than usual. The long - term view is to maintain a long - position allocation for vegetable oils, and short - term attention should be paid to the long - short game [4] Rapeseed Products - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed meal prices generally declined today, while rapeseed oil prices showed mixed trends. The weather in Canadian rapeseed - producing areas is dry, and the crop quality is below the average in recent years. Domestic rapeseed crushing has declined, which supports the high price difference between rapeseed products and competing products. The impact of geopolitical risks and biodiesel policies has been mostly digested, and there is a risk of price decline. The strategy for rapeseed products is to shift from a bullish stance to a wait - and - see approach [6] Corn - The introduction of the minimum wheat purchase price policies in Henan and Anhui has strengthened the price increase expectations of corn/wheat. The supply of corn in the circulation link has tightened, and the futures market may continue to fluctuate [7] Hogs - The weekend increase in hog spot prices drove the futures market to open higher today and then fluctuate. In the short term, group farms are reducing supply to support prices, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased. In the medium term, the pressure on hog slaughter is large. In the long term, the policy aims to stabilize hog prices, and attention should be paid to when the production capacity reaches an inflection point [8] Eggs - Due to the high number of chick replenishments from January to April this year, egg - laying capacity is still being released. The long - term egg price cycle has not reached the bottom, and there is a possibility of further decline in the far - month contracts [9]

| 快,未来两周天气存在转干迹象,内布拉斯加州铺情偏差,阿根廷大豆产区洪水炒作,但预期影响有限。需求方面,从存档推断,生猪 | 供应在9月前预期稳步增加;禽类存栏维持高位,豆粕性价比明显提高，下游成交放量提货转好。库存方面，国内大豆库存增至高位;豆 | 11 | 相库存小幅上升,预期逐步累库;饲料企业豆粕库存天数小幅上升,目前仍处于低位。 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 结 | 整体来说,巴西大豆集中到港压力预期更多反映在观货基差上。对于单边走势来说,近期在阿根廷洪水炒作、国内需求转好下出现 | 一定反弹,但美豆播种进度较快,巴西大豆卖压仍存均对甜面带来一定压力,后续关注美豆种植驱动,低估值下建议以逢低做多111、 | M01为主。 | | | 本强带中的信息均额于公开可获得的资料,国贸明货力求瓶聊可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构 | 成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者导脉的投资日标、财务状况或需要,投资者盖自行判断本提告中的任何意见或建议是否符 | 合其特定状况,射此投资,责任自负。本报告仪向特定客户推送,未经国贸票贷受权许可,任何引用、 ...