Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall weather for US soybeans is suitable, but there is a trend of high - temperature and dryness in Kansas in the second week, which needs further observation. Brazilian discounts have slightly declined but are still expected to be firm. The domestic market is in a inventory - building cycle, with the basis expected to fluctuate at a low level. The import cost is expected to support the 101 contract, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, with a focus on buying on dips [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The excellent - good rate of US soybeans has risen to 70%, higher than last year and market expectations, and the weather will be normal in the next two weeks. Under the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean supply reduction in July and August is expected to be over one million tons. The pressure of soybean meal inventory accumulation is expected to last until September, and the ship - booking from October to January is slow [7][8]. Demand - Pig and poultry farming are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, supporting feed demand. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, the proportion of feed addition has increased, and提货 is at a high level. Wheat has replaced corn in some areas, reducing the demand for protein. Recently, the trading volume of soybean meal has increased at low prices [8]. Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level; soybean meal is in an inventory - building cycle; the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8]. Price and Spread - For 43% soybean meal spot basis on July 16th, in Dalian it was - 37, in Rizhao - 157, in Tianjin - 57, in Zhangjiagang - 157 (down 9), in Dongguan - 177, in Zhanjiang - 127, and in Fangcheng - 137. The rapeseed meal spot basis was - 53 (up 2). The M9 - M1 spread was - 34, M9 - RM9 was 3, and RM9 - 1 was 344. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 324, and the futures price difference of the main contract was also provided [6][7]. International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1322, the futures crushing profit was 265 yuan/ton (down 5), and the import soybean futures gross profit was also mentioned. The CNF premium of imported soybeans was shown in the chart [7].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 10, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products - Report Focus: Analysis of various agricultural futures including palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybean, corn, sugar, cotton, eggs, live pigs, and peanuts 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Report Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Macro sentiment drives up prices, but limited upside from fundamentals [2] - **Soybean Oil**: Insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans, lacking upward drivers [2][5] - **Soybean Meal**: Concerns over trade and falling US soybean prices may lead to weak and volatile prices of Dalian soybean meal futures [2][12] - **Soybean**: Stable spot prices, volatile futures prices [2][12] - **Corn**: Undergoing shock adjustment [2][16] - **Sugar**: In a consolidation phase [2][23] - **Cotton**: Tight inventory expectations for old crops continue to support futures prices [2][27] - **Eggs**: Attention should be paid to the realization of spot prices during the peak season [2][34] - **Live Pigs**: Spot market sentiment is weakening [2][36] - **Peanuts**: Prices have support at the bottom [2][42] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices, trading volumes, open interests, and basis are provided. For example, the closing price of palm oil futures (day session) was 8,678 yuan/ton, up 0.39% [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: Analysts expect Malaysia's palm oil production to recover in the 2025/26 season, with a 0.5% year - on - year increase to 19.5 million tons. However, domestic consumption is expected to decline by 2% to 38 million tons [6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Both palm oil and soybean oil have a trend intensity of -1, indicating a bearish outlook [11] 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of DCE soybean, DCE soybean meal, CBOT soybean, and CBOT soybean meal, as well as spot prices and basis in different regions are presented. For instance, the closing price of DCE soybean meal 2509 (day session) was 2,947 yuan/ton, up 0.31% [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 9, CBOT soybean futures fell for the third consecutive day due to concerns over US trade policies and good weather conditions in the Midwest [12][15] - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal has a trend intensity of -1, while soybean has a trend intensity of 0 (only for the day - session main contract futures price fluctuation on the reporting day) [13] 3.3 Corn - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices in different regions such as Northeast, Jinzhou, North China, and Guangdong, as well as futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and basis of different contracts are given. For example, the closing price of C2509 (day session) was 2,319 yuan/ton, down 0.04% [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn port prices remained stable, while prices in Northeast and North China mostly declined. Imported sorghum and barley prices were also reported [18] - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [21] 3.4 Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: Prices of raw sugar, mainstream spot, and futures, as well as price spreads and basis are provided. For example, the raw sugar price was 16.56 cents/pound, up 0.43% [23] - **Macro and Industry News**: Pakistan approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar; Brazil's central - southern MIX increased significantly year - on - year; India's monsoon rainfall was higher than the long - period average; Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase [23] - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [25] 3.5 Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of CF2509, CY2509, and ICE cotton, as well as spot prices in different regions, trading volumes, open interests, and price spreads are presented. For example, the closing price of CF2509 (day session) was 13,830 yuan/ton, up 0.33% [28] - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was mostly quiet, and the overall basis remained stable. Cotton textile enterprises' market changed little, with weak orders and large losses for spinning enterprises [29] - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [32] 3.6 Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price spreads of different contracts, as well as spot prices in different regions, are provided. For example, the closing price of egg 2508 was 3,484 yuan/500 kg, up 1.07% [34] - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [34] 3.7 Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices in different regions such as Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong, as well as futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price spreads of different contracts are given. For example, the closing price of live pig 2509 was 14,265 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [38] - **Market Logic**: The current market is in the expectation trading stage. The expectation of state reserve purchases has formed a policy bottom sentiment, and the unanimous bullish expectation from July to August has driven the near - term sentiment. However, the futures price offers hedging profits, increasing market competition. Attention should be paid to the spot market performance in the future [40] - **Trend Intensity**: Live pigs have a trend intensity of 0 [39] 3.8 Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices in different regions such as Liaoning, Henan, and Xingcheng, as well as futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price spreads of different contracts are presented. For example, the closing price of PK510 was 8,176 yuan/ton, up 0.86% [42] - **Spot Market Focus**: In the spot market, the remaining inventory in production areas is almost exhausted, and the raw material acquisition is nearing the end. The prices of good - quality peanuts are firm, while the prices in most regions are stable or slightly weak [43] - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [46]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - 豆一: ★★★ [1] - 豆油: ★★★ [1] - 棕榈油: ★★★ [1] - 豆粕: ★★★ [1] - 菜粕: ★★★ [1] - 菜油: ★★★ [1] - 玉米: ★★★ [1] - 生猪: ★★★ [1] - 鸡蛋: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - 农产品市场各品种表现分化，短期需关注天气、政策和经贸谈判等因素指引，中长期部分品种受产能影响存在价格压力 [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybean and Its Products - 国产大豆主力合约减仓价格止跌反弹，东北产区天气利于生长，政策端购销双向交易成交好；进口美豆产区天气未来一周利于生长，短期关注天气和政策 [2] - 美国大豆优良率正常，未来两周产区降雨波动、温度略低，特朗普政府税率威胁执行推迟，连粕震荡，国内油厂压榨量高、豆粕库存上升，中美贸易不确定多，大连豆粕先以震荡对待 [3] - 棕榈油增仓上涨，豆油减仓震荡，6月马来西亚棕榈油产量降、需求增、库存降，关注MPOB报告和欧洲及黑海葵花籽天气，三季度海外棕榈油处增产周期，长期植物油逢低多配，短期关注政策和产区天气 [4] Rapeseed and Its Products - 菜粕低开高走小涨，菜油为植物油板块最弱，基本面围绕外盘菜籽产区天气和经贸谈判，国外产区天气风险降低菜籽承压，菜系单边趋势不明显，菜粕弱势震荡，菜系油粕比短期有向上波动空间 [6] Corn - 大连玉米震荡，市场聚焦阶段性供应，7月受中储粮拍卖影响供应上量价格走低，基层贸易商增加供应，山东现货增加，南北港库存攀升，需求疲软，玉米期货或继续震荡 [7] Livestock Products - 生猪期价回落，现货稳定，前期盘面上涨现货下跌后基差收窄，6月能繁母猪存栏上升，中长期猪价有下行压力 [8] Eggs - 鸡蛋主力08合约减仓反弹，7月为淡旺季转折点但今年中秋晚旺季或延后，现货报价稳定，8月合约对现货升水近千元，关注旺季启动和升水收敛，长期产能去化不足蛋价未见底 [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - With the gradual establishment of downstream inventory of domestic soybeans, the subsequent inventory accumulation speed of domestic soybeans may accelerate under the expectation of high - opening and high - pressing of oil mills, and the performance of 000 is expected to be volatile. - There is an expectation of rising import costs for soybean meal in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the November and January contracts. Also, pay attention to the results of the USDA planting area report at the end of June [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - On June 27, the basis of the main soybean meal contract in Dalian was - 26, down 70; in Tianjin, it was - 66, down 30; in Rizhao, it was - 106, down 10. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Zhangjiagang was - 126, down 50 [6]. - The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 29, down 9. The M9 - 1 spread was - 41, up 6 [6]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 387, and the price difference between the main contracts was 270, down 20 [7]. Supply Situation - In China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is expected to exceed 10 million tons in June, July, and August. The supply - demand balance sheet of new - crop US soybeans is tightening, and the good - excellent rate of US soybeans has declined to 66%, lower than the same period last year. The weather in the US in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean growth [7]. Demand Situation - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the inventory of poultry remains at a high level. The cost - performance of soybean meal is relatively high, and the proportion of feed addition has increased. The提货 volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein [7]. Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, domestic soybean and soybean meal continued to accumulate inventory. Currently, soybean inventory is at a high level in the same period of history, while soybean meal inventory is still at a low level in the same period of history, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal continue to rise [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bean Meal**: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - position trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Eggs**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including soybeans, bean meal, edible oils, corn, hogs, and eggs. It takes into account factors such as weather, geopolitics, policies, and supply - demand relationships, and provides corresponding investment suggestions and trend judgments for each product [2][3][7] Summaries by Agricultural Product Categories Soybeans and Related Products - **Domestic Soybeans**: The remaining domestic soybean inventory at the grass - roots level is low, and the policy is conducting auctions for supplementation. Short - term weather is favorable for domestic soybean growth. For imported soybeans, attention should be paid to the report on the new soybean planting area in the US at the end of June, and short - term weather is also beneficial for US soybean growth [2] - **Soybeans and Bean Meal**: The Israel - Iran war has led to a continuous rise in crude oil prices, driving up the prices of oil - related futures. US soybean growing conditions are favorable in the next two weeks. Domestically, soybean arrivals have increased since May, supply has become more abundant, and bean meal inventory is expected to continue to rise. The soybean market is currently in a volatile state, and attention should be paid to changes in the oil market and future weather [3] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: CBOT soybeans should be monitored for the new planting area report at the end of June. The short - term weather outlook is beneficial for US soybeans. CBOT soybean oil prices are strong. Domestically, there is a large arrival pressure in the short term, and the fourth - quarter procurement progress is slower than usual. The long - term view is to maintain a long - position allocation for vegetable oils, and short - term attention should be paid to the long - short game [4] Rapeseed Products - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed meal prices generally declined today, while rapeseed oil prices showed mixed trends. The weather in Canadian rapeseed - producing areas is dry, and the crop quality is below the average in recent years. Domestic rapeseed crushing has declined, which supports the high price difference between rapeseed products and competing products. The impact of geopolitical risks and biodiesel policies has been mostly digested, and there is a risk of price decline. The strategy for rapeseed products is to shift from a bullish stance to a wait - and - see approach [6] Corn - The introduction of the minimum wheat purchase price policies in Henan and Anhui has strengthened the price increase expectations of corn/wheat. The supply of corn in the circulation link has tightened, and the futures market may continue to fluctuate [7] Hogs - The weekend increase in hog spot prices drove the futures market to open higher today and then fluctuate. In the short term, group farms are reducing supply to support prices, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased. In the medium term, the pressure on hog slaughter is large. In the long term, the policy aims to stabilize hog prices, and attention should be paid to when the production capacity reaches an inflection point [8] Eggs - Due to the high number of chick replenishments from January to April this year, egg - laying capacity is still being released. The long - term egg price cycle has not reached the bottom, and there is a possibility of further decline in the far - month contracts [9]

| 快,未来两周天气存在转干迹象,内布拉斯加州铺情偏差,阿根廷大豆产区洪水炒作,但预期影响有限。需求方面,从存档推断,生猪 | 供应在9月前预期稳步增加;禽类存栏维持高位,豆粕性价比明显提高，下游成交放量提货转好。库存方面，国内大豆库存增至高位;豆 | 11 | 相库存小幅上升,预期逐步累库;饲料企业豆粕库存天数小幅上升,目前仍处于低位。 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 结 | 整体来说,巴西大豆集中到港压力预期更多反映在观货基差上。对于单边走势来说,近期在阿根廷洪水炒作、国内需求转好下出现 | 一定反弹,但美豆播种进度较快,巴西大豆卖压仍存均对甜面带来一定压力,后续关注美豆种植驱动,低估值下建议以逢低做多111、 | M01为主。 | | | 本强带中的信息均额于公开可获得的资料,国贸明货力求瓶聊可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构 | 成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者导脉的投资日标、财务状况或需要,投资者盖自行判断本提告中的任何意见或建议是否符 | 合其特定状况,射此投资,责任自负。本报告仪向特定客户推送,未经国贸票贷受权许可,任何引用、 ...

2025年05月14日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，下方或有支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美国生柴炒作密集，短期易涨难跌 | 2 | | 豆粕：贸易摩擦缓和，连粕偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：关注巴西压榨进度 | 7 | | 棉花：市场乐观情绪推动棉花期货反弹 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：等待矛盾释放，短期博弈 | 11 | | 花生：现货偏强 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 14 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，下方或有支撑 豆油：美国生柴炒作密集，短期易涨难跌 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 7,954 | 涨跌幅 -0.87% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,036 | 涨跌幅 1.03% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...