Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock indices is "oscillation" [4] Core View of the Report - This week, global stock markets were divided, with developed markets strengthening while Chinese stock markets significantly declined with shrinking trading volume. The up - and - down market this week was a reaction to the escalation of tariff conflicts. Although US officials initially indicated that tariffs on China might not be imposed, subsequent hawkish statements from the US undermined the optimistic expectations. After the TACO trading, the stock market experienced a one - sided decline with trading volume shrinking below 2 trillion yuan. Looking ahead, it is recommended to be vigilant about the stock market. One should observe whether the trading volume continues to shrink and the content of the Fourth Plenary Session [2][10] Summary According to the Directory 1. One - Week View and Overview of Macro Key Events - **Next - week View**: Market liquidity is starting to decline. Pay attention to changes in the Fourth Plenary Session. Be vigilant about the stock market, observing trading volume changes and the content of the Fourth Plenary Session [10] - **This - week Key Events**: From October 13th to 17th, there were multiple events including Trump's hint of canceling new tariffs on China, China's export and import growth in September, policy issuances by the National Development and Reform Commission and the publication of relevant articles in "Qiushi" magazine, and international events such as the UK listing Chinese companies on the entity list [11][13][19] 2. One - Week Market Quotation Overview - **Global Stock Market Weekly Overview**: From October 13th - 17th, global stock markets denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index increased by 1.20%, with developed markets (+1.38%) > frontier markets (+0.55%) > emerging markets (-0.30%). South Korea's stock market led the world with a 4.01% increase, while Singapore's stock market had the worst performance with a 3.97% decline [23] - **Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview**: From October 13th - 17th, Chinese equity assets declined significantly. In terms of different markets, Chinese concept stocks > A - shares > Hong Kong stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2193.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 410.3 billion yuan compared to last week. All A - share sectors declined, with the Shanghai 50 Index falling 0.24% (the best - performing) and the STAR 50 Index falling 6.16% (the worst - performing) [26] - **Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets**: Most global GICS primary industries declined this week. The leading industry was real estate (+2.97%), and the poorly - performing industry was finance (-0.37%). In the Chinese market, the finance industry led with a 1.91% increase, while the information technology industry lagged with a 6.7% decline [29] - **Weekly Overview of China A - share CITIC Primary Industries**: This week, among A - share CITIC primary industries, 4 rose (18 last week) and 26 fell (12 last week). The leading industry was the banking industry (+4.99%), and the industry with the largest decline was the electronics industry (-7.10%) [32] - **Weekly Overview of China A - share Styles**: The large - cap value style was dominant [36] - **Overview of Stock Index Futures Basis**: Data on the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months are presented [39][42] 3. Overview of Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast - **Broad - based Index Valuation**: Data on PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year of various broad - based indices such as the Shanghai 50 Index are provided [45] - **Primary Industry Valuation**: Data on PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year of various primary industries such as the petroleum and petrochemical industry are provided [46] - **Broad - based Index Equity Risk Premium**: The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 increased slightly this week [47][49] - **Broad - based Index Consensus Earnings Growth Rate**: The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was raised to 7.37% and to 8.56% in 2026; that of the CSI 500 in 2025 was raised to 32.05% and to 17.92% in 2026; the expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 1000 in 2025 was lowered to 37.39% and raised to 20.92% in 2026 [52] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: This week, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond declined, the 1 - year yield increased, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 98.6, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.12 [60] - **Trading - type Capital Tracking**: This week, the average daily trading volume of northbound funds decreased by 49.7 billion yuan compared to last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 14.5 billion yuan compared to last week [62] - **Tracking of Funds Flowing in through ETFs**: There were 29 on - market ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 27 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 39 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 210 million shares, that of those tracking the CSI 500 decreased by 210 million shares, that of those tracking the CSI 1000 increased by 70 million shares, and that of those tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 3.1 billion shares [65][66][69] 5. Tracking of Domestic Macro High - frequency Data - **Supply Side**: Crude steel production contracted, with data on blast furnace operating rates, coking enterprise operating rates, and domestic crude steel daily average production presented [72][73][75] - **Consumption Side**: Real estate transactions remained sluggish, with data on the transaction area of first - hand and second - hand houses in large and medium - sized cities, land transaction area, and passenger car wholesale sales growth rate presented. The crude oil price dropped to around $61 per barrel [80][81][89] - **Inflation Observation**: Agricultural product prices recovered, while the recovery of production material prices was weak [91][93]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic gold prices continue to rise, with an overall increase of around 10 yuan per gram, reflecting market sentiment influenced by geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts [1][4]. Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - The price of gold in domestic stores has increased, with notable rises such as Liufu Gold up by 10 yuan per gram, reaching 1190 yuan per gram, making it one of the highest-priced stores [1]. - Shanghai China Gold has the lowest price at 1076 yuan per gram, with a rise of 13 yuan per gram [1]. - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold prices today is 114 yuan per gram, which has slightly narrowed [1]. Group 2: Domestic Platinum Prices - Platinum prices have also seen an increase, with Liufu Platinum rising by 17 yuan per gram to 658 yuan per gram [1]. Group 3: Domestic Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price has increased by 6 yuan per gram, with varying prices across different brands [2]. - The recycling price for gold is reported at 909 yuan per gram, with other brands like Lao Fengxiang at 919.70 yuan per gram [2]. Group 4: International Gold Prices - International spot gold has reached a new high of 4077.76 USD per ounce, currently reported at 4076.75 USD per ounce, reflecting a 1.46% increase [4]. - The strong performance of gold prices is attributed to market sentiment and short-term speculation rather than fundamental changes [4]. - There is a high expectation for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with a 95.7% probability for October and 99.5% for December [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bean Meal**: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - position trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Eggs**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including soybeans, bean meal, edible oils, corn, hogs, and eggs. It takes into account factors such as weather, geopolitics, policies, and supply - demand relationships, and provides corresponding investment suggestions and trend judgments for each product [2][3][7] Summaries by Agricultural Product Categories Soybeans and Related Products - **Domestic Soybeans**: The remaining domestic soybean inventory at the grass - roots level is low, and the policy is conducting auctions for supplementation. Short - term weather is favorable for domestic soybean growth. For imported soybeans, attention should be paid to the report on the new soybean planting area in the US at the end of June, and short - term weather is also beneficial for US soybean growth [2] - **Soybeans and Bean Meal**: The Israel - Iran war has led to a continuous rise in crude oil prices, driving up the prices of oil - related futures. US soybean growing conditions are favorable in the next two weeks. Domestically, soybean arrivals have increased since May, supply has become more abundant, and bean meal inventory is expected to continue to rise. The soybean market is currently in a volatile state, and attention should be paid to changes in the oil market and future weather [3] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: CBOT soybeans should be monitored for the new planting area report at the end of June. The short - term weather outlook is beneficial for US soybeans. CBOT soybean oil prices are strong. Domestically, there is a large arrival pressure in the short term, and the fourth - quarter procurement progress is slower than usual. The long - term view is to maintain a long - position allocation for vegetable oils, and short - term attention should be paid to the long - short game [4] Rapeseed Products - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed meal prices generally declined today, while rapeseed oil prices showed mixed trends. The weather in Canadian rapeseed - producing areas is dry, and the crop quality is below the average in recent years. Domestic rapeseed crushing has declined, which supports the high price difference between rapeseed products and competing products. The impact of geopolitical risks and biodiesel policies has been mostly digested, and there is a risk of price decline. The strategy for rapeseed products is to shift from a bullish stance to a wait - and - see approach [6] Corn - The introduction of the minimum wheat purchase price policies in Henan and Anhui has strengthened the price increase expectations of corn/wheat. The supply of corn in the circulation link has tightened, and the futures market may continue to fluctuate [7] Hogs - The weekend increase in hog spot prices drove the futures market to open higher today and then fluctuate. In the short term, group farms are reducing supply to support prices, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased. In the medium term, the pressure on hog slaughter is large. In the long term, the policy aims to stabilize hog prices, and attention should be paid to when the production capacity reaches an inflection point [8] Eggs - Due to the high number of chick replenishments from January to April this year, egg - laying capacity is still being released. The long - term egg price cycle has not reached the bottom, and there is a possibility of further decline in the far - month contracts [9]

Tariff Adjustments - Both parties agreed to reduce tariffs by 115 percentage points[2] - The U.S. will lower tariffs on Chinese goods to 10% within 90 days, while China's counter-tariffs will also drop to 10%[6] - The overall U.S. tariff on China could range from 40% to 50% when considering previous tariffs[6] Market Reactions - The significant tariff reductions indicate a consensus against extreme trade decoupling, potentially easing market risk appetite[2] - Following the announcement, U.S.-China stock index futures rose, the RMB appreciated, and the U.S. dollar index increased[6] Future Negotiations - A mechanism will be established for ongoing trade discussions, with a critical 90-day negotiation period ahead[3] - The U.S. is expected to push for further concessions from China, including market access and service trade improvements[7] Risks and Considerations - The potential for tariff fluctuations remains, influenced by Trump's unpredictable trade policies and ongoing ideological conflicts[8] - Specific tariffs on products like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors may still be implemented as part of strategic supply chain adjustments[8] Overall Outlook - The report suggests a cautious optimism regarding the potential for a "Phase 2" trade agreement, but emphasizes the need for close monitoring of developments[8]

Policy Insights - The recent financial policy package is substantial and contains many unexpected details, indicating a shift in market trading expectations towards the implementation of incremental fiscal policies[2] - The People's Bank of China announced a comprehensive 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market[12] Market Reactions - A-shares are likely to enter a strong oscillating trend, supported by the government's commitment to stabilize the capital market amid easing US-China trade tensions[13] - The bond yield curve is expected to steepen initially before flattening, with limited upward movement in long-term rates due to ongoing uncertainties in US-China negotiations[13] Economic Indicators - The April manufacturing PMI orders index fell by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, prompting timely policy responses to counteract weakening export indicators[4] - The market anticipates further clues from the release of April's major economic indicators throughout May, which may influence future policy directions[2] Interest Rate Adjustments - The policy interest rate was lowered by 10 basis points to 1.4%, signaling a strong intent to guide the overall yield curve downward[9] - Structural monetary policy tools saw a more significant reduction of 25 basis points, with specific rates for agricultural and small business loans adjusted to 1.5%[9] Risk Considerations - There is a risk that the implementation of re-lending policies may not meet expectations, potentially leading to unexpected tightening of liquidity in the market[14]

Group 1: Real Estate Industry Analysis - In April 2025, the top 100 real estate companies in China experienced a 9.1% year-on-year decline in sales, indicating ongoing market pressure [2][20] - From January to April 2025, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a total sales amount of 1,018.16 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -6.8% [3][21] - The sales performance of the top 10 companies showed a year-on-year decline of 11.1%, while the sales of companies ranked 21-30 increased by 3.5% [3][21] Group 2: Key Companies in Real Estate - The five largest real estate companies by sales from January to April 2025 were Poly, China Resources, China Overseas, China Merchants, and Greentown, with sales amounts of 87.61 billion, 68.5 billion, 66.52 billion, 49.78 billion, and 47.72 billion yuan respectively [4][22] - The highest average sales prices per square meter were recorded by Binjiang, Yuexiu, Greentown, Jinyu, and Poly Real Estate, with prices of 39,800, 39,400, 34,100, 30,500, and 27,300 yuan respectively [4][22] - The companies with the highest year-on-year sales growth were China Railway, Huafa, Electric Construction, Yuexiu, and Tie Jian, with growth rates of 55.4%, 49.1%, 49.1%, 37.1%, and 22.7% respectively [4][22] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on short-term valuation recovery opportunities due to policy implementation and long-term investments in leading companies with quality product resources and real estate operation capabilities [5][23] - Recommended companies include Poly Development, New Town Holdings, China Resources Land, and Longfor Group, which are expected to benefit from market conditions [5][23] Group 4: Communication Industry Analysis - The report highlights the significant commercial success of Yiyuan Communication in the communication module sector, marking progress in China's communication module industry [9][25] - From 2015 to 2024, Yiyuan Communication's revenue grew from 303 million yuan to 18.594 billion yuan, with net profit increasing from 26 million yuan to 588 million yuan [9][25] - The company has expanded its workforce from under 200 to approximately 6,000 employees during the same period [9][25] Group 5: Market Trends and Opportunities - The global edge AI market is expected to grow explosively, with projections indicating a rise from 321.9 billion yuan in 2025 to 1,223 billion yuan by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 39.6% [13][29] - The integration of AI and IoT is anticipated to provide new growth opportunities and innovation potential, transitioning from a connected world to an intelligent world [13][29] - Yiyuan Communication is well-positioned to capitalize on the development opportunities in the edge AI market [13][30]

Group 1 - OPEC's decision to implement compensatory production cuts supports oil prices, but tensions among OPEC+ members regarding production quotas may lead to proposals for increased output in June [1] - The international crude oil prices have shown alternating trends, with the price change rate narrowing in the current pricing cycle [1] - Domestic gas prices have experienced a downward trend, with a lack of significant positive news to boost market sentiment, leading to lower terminal product prices and weak chemical demand [1] Group 2 - Propane prices have retreated after a previous increase, with upstream sellers eager to offload inventory, but terminal demand remains weak [2] - The market anticipates a volatile trend for international crude oil prices next week, with expectations of improved conditions regarding the US-China tariff conflict and active procurement from Chinese buyers [3] - Overall, the market is facing multiple bearish factors, and propane prices are expected to consolidate weakly, with an average price decline anticipated [3]