Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In August 2025, CPI remained flat at 0% month-on-month, while PPI ended a consecutive eight-month decline, indicating a potential turning point for PPI [1] - Core CPI growth has rebounded for four consecutive months due to policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and regulating low-price competition, although overall CPI year-on-year growth fell to -0.4% due to food prices [2] - The PPI is expected to see a slow recovery due to a poor demand environment and market-oriented capacity governance, remaining in negative growth territory for the year [2] Group 2: Industry Research - The antimony supply is tightening as Polar Gold's antimony production is projected to drop to zero in the first half of 2025, leading to potential price increases in the domestic market [3] - Antimony prices have fluctuated this year, influenced by export policies and demand changes, with expectations of price increases if export restrictions ease [3] Group 3: Company Research - Huaxin Cement (600801.SH) reported significant growth in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by accelerated international expansion and increased overseas revenue and cement sales [4] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.9 billion, 3.3 billion, and 3.5 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [4] - Megachip Color (603062.SH) also experienced rapid revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, with new business developments in wind power and marine coatings contributing to sales [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 270 million, 300 million, and 330 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, maintaining an "increase" rating [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent CPI and PPI data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, highlighting a decline in CPI and PPI, with specific attention to the structural changes in prices and the implications for the bond market [4][5]. CPI and PPI Summary - In August 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with a core CPI increase of 0.9%, indicating a slight upward trend in core inflation [4][5]. - The CPI's month-on-month growth rate was 0%, showing a decline from July's 0.4% [5]. - The PPI saw a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, an improvement from July's 3.6% drop, and the month-on-month growth rate was also 0%, marking a halt in the negative trend after eight months [5]. Structural Analysis - The CPI structure revealed that food prices continued to decline, energy prices remained low, and service prices showed an increase in growth [5]. - The PPI's structural differentiation was noted, with upstream extraction prices rising quickly, but the transmission to downstream industrial products was not yet evident [5]. Bond Market Insights - The bond market has shown a divergence in yield trends since August 2025, with short-term yields stable and long-term yields increasing significantly [6]. - The current liquidity is relatively loose, leading to an optimistic outlook for pure bonds, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to stabilize around 1.7% [6]. - Convertible bonds have underperformed relative to underlying stocks since August 25, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to strong demand and limited supply [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In August 2025, both CPI and PPI were flat month - on - month. CPI decreased year - on - year, while core CPI increased year - on - year. PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed, and its month - on - month decline stopped [1][2]. - Regarding interest - rate bonds, since August 2025, the yield of treasury bonds has shown a significant divergence, with the short - end relatively stable and the long - end rising. Given the current loose liquidity, one should be optimistic about pure bonds, and the fluctuation center of the 10Y treasury bond yield is 1.7% [3][26]. - For convertible bonds, from August 25th to the present, convertible bonds have underperformed underlying stocks and are in a stage of high - level valuation compression. In the long run, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets, and opportunities for allocation emerge after short - term declines [3][31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event - On September 10, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics released the CPI and PPI data for August 2025. In August, CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year (previous value: 0%), core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year (previous value: 0.8%); PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year (previous value: - 3.6%) [1][6]. 3.2 Comment 3.2.1 CPI - In August 2025, CPI's year - on - year growth rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points compared to July, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0%. Both the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates declined compared to the previous month. This month's CPI was within the seasonal fluctuation range [2][7]. - Structurally, food prices' year - on - year decline continued to widen (year - on - year: - 4.3%, previous value: - 1.6%), energy prices continued to fall (transport fuel: year - on - year - 7.1%, month - on - month - 0.9%), service prices' year - on - year growth rate increased (up 0.6% in August, 0.1 percentage points higher than July), and the year - on - year increase of core CPI continued to expand for the fourth consecutive month (up 0.9% in August, previous value: 0.8%) [2][8][11]. 3.2.2 PPI - In August, PPI's year - on - year growth rate was - 2.9% (July: - 3.6%), with the decline narrowing; the month - on - month growth rate was 0% (July: - 0.2%), ending eight consecutive months of negative growth [2][16]. - Structurally, the year - on - year growth rate of production materials prices was - 3.2% (July: - 4.3%), with the decline narrowing; the year - on - year growth rate of living materials prices was - 1.7% (July: - 1.6%), with a slight expansion in the decline. Among production materials, the year - on - year declines of mining, raw materials, and processing industries all narrowed, and the month - on - month growth rate of mining industry prices increased significantly [20]. - Looking forward, with the continuous implementation of the "anti - involution" policy, the current year - on - year PPI growth rate may be at the bottom and on the rise, but there is obvious structural differentiation, and the price increase of upstream mining has not been significantly transmitted to mid - and downstream industrial products [2][20]. 3.3 Bond Market Views 3.3.1 Interest - rate Bonds - Since August 2025, the yield of treasury bonds has shown a significant divergence. The short - end has fluctuated little (the average yield of 1Y treasury bonds in July was 1.36%, and from August 1st to September 9th, it was 1.37%), while the long - end has increased significantly (the average yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds from August 1st to September 9th increased by 9bp and 15bp respectively compared to July). Currently, the sentiment in the interest - rate bond market is still weak. Looking ahead, due to the loose liquidity, one should be optimistic about pure bonds, and the fluctuation center of the 10Y treasury bond yield is 1.7% [26]. 3.3.2 Convertible Bonds - As of September 9, 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 15.2%, slightly lower than the equity market. Currently, convertible bonds' valuations are close to or exceed historical highs, so adjustments are inevitable. From August 25th to the present, convertible bonds have underperformed underlying stocks and are in a stage of high - level valuation compression. In the long run, given the expectation of a slow - bull equity market and the pattern where the demand in the convertible bond market exceeds supply, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets, and opportunities for allocation emerge after short - term declines [31].

Core Insights - The report indicates that commercial banks are increasing their allocation to interest rate bonds, while broad-based funds are reducing their holdings in government bonds and policy financial bonds [4][5][51]. Group 1: Interbank Leverage Ratio - As of the end of July, the interbank market leverage ratio was 106.81%, down from 107.64% at the end of the previous month, indicating a decrease of 0.83 percentage points and remaining below historical levels for the same period [2][11]. Group 2: Custody Data Overview - In July 2025, the total custody scale of bonds at China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) and Shanghai Clearing House reached 173.03 trillion yuan, an increase of 174.49 billion yuan from the previous month [3][14]. Group 3: By Bond Type - The total custody scale of major interest rate bonds (government bonds, local government bonds, policy bank bonds) reached 114.81 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 143.74 billion yuan. Commercial banks were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 154.99 billion yuan, while broad-based funds, securities companies, and foreign institutions reduced their holdings [4][51]. - The custody scale of major credit bonds (corporate bonds, medium-term notes, short-term financing bonds, and ultra-short-term financing bonds) was 16.04 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 20.07 billion yuan. Broad-based funds and commercial banks were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 116.8 billion yuan and 71.7 billion yuan, respectively [4][30][51]. - The custody scale of interbank certificates of deposit was 20.74 trillion yuan, a decrease of 37.43 billion yuan, with commercial banks and foreign institutions being the main sellers [4][47][51]. Group 4: By Institution - The custody scale of commercial banks reached 84.13 trillion yuan, increasing by 137.58 billion yuan. They increased their holdings in interest rate bonds and credit bonds by 154.99 billion yuan and 7.17 billion yuan, respectively, while reducing their holdings in interbank certificates of deposit by 24.58 billion yuan [5][52]. - The custody scale of broad-based funds was 37.55 trillion yuan, decreasing by 83.7 billion yuan. They increased their holdings in credit bonds by 116.8 billion yuan but reduced their holdings in interest rate bonds and interbank certificates of deposit by 117.9 billion yuan and 2.26 billion yuan, respectively [5][52]. - Foreign institutions had a custody scale of 3.79 trillion yuan, decreasing by 301.6 billion yuan, with reductions in interest rate bonds, interbank certificates of deposit, and credit bonds by 129 billion yuan, 167.3 billion yuan, and 5.4 billion yuan, respectively [5][57].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has seen significant trading activity and inflows, indicating strong market interest and potential investment opportunities in the bond market [1]. Group 1: Market Activity - As of August 22, 2025, the latest quote for the 30-year Treasury ETF is 120.03 yuan, with an intraday turnover of 43.19% and a total transaction volume of 12.01 billion yuan, reflecting active market trading [1]. - The average daily transaction volume for the 30-year Treasury ETF over the past week is 12.21 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Fund Size and Inflows - The latest size of the 30-year Treasury ETF has reached 27.864 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [1]. - The ETF's latest share count stands at 231 million shares, also a record high since its launch [1]. - Over the past 12 days, the ETF has experienced continuous net inflows, with a peak single-day net inflow of 1.274 billion yuan, totaling 6.253 billion yuan in net inflows [1]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - According to Tianfeng Securities' chief fixed income analyst, the logic of "buying bonds while watching stocks" may continue in the third quarter, with the bond market expected to remain in a volatile pattern due to policy disturbances and redemption pressures [1]. - The 10-year Treasury yield is anticipated to be in the range of 1.75%-1.80%, suggesting a gradual allocation strategy, with a focus on phase-based operations to capitalize on potential market recoveries [1]. - Future developments in the bond market may hinge on stock market fluctuations and the central bank's supportive measures, which could include restarting Treasury purchases to signal easing [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current bond market lacks a new main driving force, and the strengthening of the equity market has significantly increased market risk appetite, continuously suppressing bond market sentiment, especially reflected in the increased selling pressure on the ultra - long end of interest - rate bonds, leading to a continuous widening of the spread between the 10 - year and 30 - year bonds. The "strong stock, weak bond" linkage effect is enhanced, and in the short term, liquidity factors may surpass fundamentals and the money market to become the core logic guiding bond market trading. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the widening term spread brought by the steepening of the yield curve [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Volume**: T, TF, TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.18%, 0.1%, 0.35% respectively, while TS remained unchanged. T, TF, TS, TL main contract trading volumes increased by 10413, 5816, 734, 2442 respectively [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509 increased, while others like T09 - TL09, TS09 - T09, TS09 - TF09 decreased [2] - **Futures Positions**: T, TF, TS, TL main contract positions decreased. T, TF, TS top 20 long positions decreased, while TL's increased. T, TF top 20 net short positions increased, TS decreased, and TL remained unchanged [2] 2. CTD and Active Bonds - **CTD Net Prices**: Most CTD net prices decreased, with only 220007.IB increasing slightly [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: 3y, 5y, 7y, 10y active bond yields decreased by 0.75bp, 0.75bp, 0.25bp, 0.40bp respectively, while 1y remained unchanged [2] 3. Short - term Interest Rates - **Silver Pledge and Shibor**: Silver pledge overnight decreased by 2.31bp, 7 - day increased by 6.33bp, 14 - day remained unchanged. Shibor overnight increased by 0.90bp, 7 - day increased by 1.70bp, 14 - day decreased by 0.30bp [2] 4. LPR and Open Market Operations - **LPR**: 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [2] - **Open Market Operations**: The issuance scale was 616 billion yuan, and the maturity scale was 497.5 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase [2] 5. Industry News - **Budget Revenue**: From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Tax revenue decreased by 0.3%, non - tax revenue increased by 2%. Central revenue decreased by 2%, local revenue increased by 1.8%. Stamp duty increased by 20.7%, and securities trading stamp duty increased by 62.5% [2] - **LPR Quote**: The August LPR quote remained stable [2] - **Previous Bond Market Situation**: On Wednesday, Treasury bond yields weakened, and Treasury bond futures declined. DR007 increased slightly. In July, domestic economic data showed mixed performance, and overseas, the Sino - US tariff suspension period was extended, and the US PPI increase dampened the Fed's September rate - cut expectation [2] 6. Key Data to Focus On - August 20th, 17:00: Eurozone July CPI annual rate final value - August 21st, 02:00: Fed releases monetary policy meeting minutes [3]

Group 1 - The bond market has shown volatility this year, with the China Bond New Comprehensive Index rising by 0.97% year-to-date. Short-term policy bank bonds have outperformed medium to long-term bonds in a low-interest environment, leading to a narrowing of credit spreads and better performance of credit bonds compared to interest rate bonds [1][6][10] - In July, the overall wealth index return of the domestic RMB bond market declined, with the net price index and wealth index returns of the China Bond New Comprehensive Index at -0.30% and -0.08%, respectively [8][21] - Government bond yields have slightly increased, with fluctuations in the yield spreads between government bonds and policy bank bonds. The wealth index of the China Bond Total Index fell by 0.17%, while the short-term government bond index showed slightly better returns [21][15] Group 2 - Credit bond yields have experienced fluctuations, benefiting from coupon income, with the overall wealth index return of the credit bond market increasing by 0.10%. High-grade credit bond spreads have narrowed [26][29] - The green bond market remains stable, with the market value of "green" bonds reaching 6.67 trillion yuan, up 1.01% from the previous month. The China Bond Green Bond Comprehensive Index, which includes 1,002 bonds from 401 issuers, has a market value of 1.76 trillion yuan [12][2] - The performance of various industry credit bonds has been positive, with the real estate industry credit bond index returning approximately 0.20%, marking the best performance among sectors [31][33]

Economic Indicators - July manufacturing PMI slightly decreased to 49.3, indicating continued contraction for four months[4] - Raw material purchase prices increased by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5, driven by significant price rises in upstream materials like rebar and coke[4] - July service PMI was 50.0, showing a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points, with new orders and business activity expectations being the main drivers[5] Market Trends - The liquidity environment remains a key variable for the equity market, with expectations of continued monetary policy easing supporting market growth[2] - The recent adjustment in the equity market was driven by trading behavior, particularly in "anti-involution" related sectors, leading to significant price drops in futures like coking coal and rebar[7] - The central bank's recent statements suggest a continuation of liquidity support without immediate rate cuts, indicating a stable monetary policy outlook[9] U.S. Economic Outlook - U.S. Q2 GDP growth was reported at 3.0%, a significant increase of 3.5 percentage points from Q1, exceeding market expectations[15] - July non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, a sharp decline of 74,000 from the previous month, indicating growing risks in the labor market[20] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, while the labor force participation rate fell to 62.2%[23] Inflation and Interest Rates - The market anticipates approximately three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, with expected cuts in September, October, and December, totaling around 61 basis points[24] - Recent adjustments in tax policy for newly issued bonds may widen the spread between new and old bonds, impacting the attractiveness of government bonds relative to credit bonds[12]

Group 1: Market Overview - The fixed income market is experiencing a decline in investment returns, prompting investors to seek "fixed income plus" products to enhance yields while managing withdrawal risks[14]. - The recent policy to restore value-added tax (VAT) on bond interest income is expected to reduce returns by 5-10 basis points (bp) for bond investors[14][15]. - The bond market is currently seeing a recovery in sentiment, with significant fluctuations in interest rates and a high issuance volume of government bonds[40][44]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The North Exchange's online IPOs offer low-cost, high-yield opportunities, making them suitable for "fixed income plus" strategies[16]. - Historical data shows that the average first-day return for new stocks listed on the North Exchange in 2024 was 245%, with no instances of price drops below the issue price[16]. - A strategy involving the maximum subscription amount (5% of the initial issuance) yields an average return of 0.17%, while optimizing for minimum investment can lower returns to 0.12%[21][27]. Group 3: Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on "fixed income plus" opportunities due to the low withdrawal risk associated with the North Exchange's IPO strategy[35]. - The optimal investment strategy involves adjusting the investment amount to achieve a balance between success probability and return efficiency, with a target return of 0.20% when investing 2.5 times the minimum subscription amount[30][31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the last week of July, with the central bank's support, funds smoothly crossed the month. The outcome of the Sino-US talks was in line with expectations, and the Politburo meeting mainly focused on advancing existing policies. The equity market fluctuated weakly, and the bond market shifted towards recovery. On Friday, the VAT policies for treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds were adjusted, and the yield of the 10-year active treasury bond fell below 1.7%. Throughout the week, the yield of the 1-year active treasury bond dropped by 1.75BP to 1.3600%, the yield of the 10-year active treasury bond decreased by 3.75BP to 1.6950%, and the yield of the 30-year treasury bond declined by 4.45BP to 1.9030% [3][6][7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents (1) Interest Rate Bond Market Review: Limited Increment from the Politburo Meeting, "Old Bond Rush" Driven by VAT Adjustment - **Overall Situation**: In the last week of July, with the central bank's support, funds smoothly crossed the month. The Sino-US talks had no unexpected results, and the Politburo meeting mainly advanced existing policies. The equity market fluctuated weakly, and the bond market recovered. After the bond VAT adjustment policy was announced on Friday, the yield of the 10-year active treasury bond fell below 1.7% [3][6][7]. - **Daily Performance**: - **July 28th**: The central bank net injected 3251 billion yuan. The bond market continued the recovery trend, and the yields of major treasury bonds decreased by 1.5 - 2.5BP [7][10][11]. - **July 29th**: The central bank net injected 2344 billion yuan. Affected by the Sino-US talks and Politburo meeting expectations, the equity market strengthened, and the yields of medium - and long - term treasury bonds over 5 years increased by 3 - 4BP [7][12]. - **July 30th**: The central bank net injected 1585 billion yuan. The Politburo meeting did not mention "anti - involution" and real estate policies much. The equity market rebounded, and the yields of major treasury bonds decreased by 2 - 4BP [7][13]. - **July 31st**: The central bank net withdrew 478 billion yuan in the morning. Due to factors such as the PMI data being lower than expected and the weakening of the equity market, the bond market performed strongly, and the yields of major treasury bonds decreased by 1 - 2BP [7][14]. - **August 1st**: The central bank net withdrew 6633 billion yuan in the morning. The equity market continued to correct. After the bond VAT adjustment policy was announced in the evening, the yield of the 10-year treasury bond first rose and then fell, closing at 1.6950% [7][15][16]. (2) Funding Situation: The Central Bank Conducted Net OMO Injections Near the Month - End, and the Funding Situation was Balanced and Loose The central bank net injected 69 billion yuan this week. The funding sentiment index was generally below 50. The cross - month funding situation was stable and loose. The issuance price of 1-year national and joint - stock bank certificates of deposit dropped to 1.6250%, and the weekly average of DR007 was 1.53% [1][7]. (3) Primary Issuance: Net Financing of Treasury Bonds, Policy Financial Bonds, and Interbank Certificates of Deposit Increased, while Net Financing of Local Government Bonds Decreased No specific data on the increase and decrease of net financing are provided in the text, but it is mentioned that the net financing of treasury bonds, policy financial bonds, and interbank certificates of deposit increased, and the net financing of local government bonds decreased [24]. (4) Benchmark Changes: The Term Spreads of Treasury Bonds and China Development Bank Bonds Both Narrowed - **Yield Curve Changes**: The yields of short - term treasury bonds dropped by 1.01BP, and the yields of short - term China Development Bank bonds decreased by 2.52BP. The yields of long - term treasury bonds declined by 2.65BP, and the yields of long - term China Development Bank bonds fell by 4.64BP [19]. - **Absolute Level of Term Spreads**: The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds narrowed by 1.64BP to 33.25BP, and the 10Y - 1Y spread of China Development Bank bonds narrowed by 2.12BP to 26.45BP [19].