Global Central Bank Dynamics - US President Trump urges the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and threatens to consider a major lawsuit against Fed Chairman Powell over cost overruns on Fed headquarters renovations [1] - US Treasury Secretary Basant clarifies that he is not pressuring the Fed to lower rates, stating he is only discussing neutral interest rate models [1] - The Federal Reserve has terminated the "new activity supervision program" established in 2023, which was aimed at enhancing regulation of banks' cryptocurrency activities, continuing the trend of relaxed regulation in the crypto industry [1] - Fed Chairman Powell is scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference on August 22 regarding economic outlook and Fed policy framework assessment [1] Interest Rate Decisions - The Reserve Bank of Australia cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.60%, the lowest level since April 2023, marking the third rate cut this year [2] - The Bank of Thailand lowers its interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.50%, with a unanimous vote, citing expected economic growth and low inflation [3] - The Bank of Canada decides to maintain its current monetary policy due to trade uncertainties and economic resilience, with some officials believing current rate cuts are sufficient to address the mild impact of tariffs on consumer prices [2] - The Bank of Japan considers shifting focus from "potential inflation" indicators to overall inflation rates and expectations, which may pave the way for a rate hike in October [2] - The Norwegian central bank indicates that policy rates may be adjusted more quickly if inflation returns to target levels faster than expected or if unemployment rises more than anticipated [2] - The Turkish central bank continues to implement tight policies despite a decrease in inflation expectations, stating that exchange rate policies will not change [2] Market Observations - Citic Securities reports that the US stock market experienced a style switch following the July CPI release, reminiscent of the "rate cut trade" seen after the June CPI release in 2024 [6] - Barclays analysts note that the nomination of Stephen Moore as a potential new Fed governor could influence future Fed policy direction, raising market concerns [6] - BlackRock analysts suggest that the latest US inflation report alleviates concerns and supports a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, with some bets on a significant cut [6] - Goldman Sachs believes the European Central Bank's rate cut cycle has ended, predicting three rate cuts from the Fed this year and two next year, totaling a 125 basis point reduction [7]

Economic Growth - Japan's Q2 2025 real GDP growth rate increased from 0.6% to 1%, exceeding the expected -0.4%[1] - Nominal GDP growth rate rose from 1% to 1.3%, slightly below the expected 1.4%[1] - Net exports contributed positively to GDP growth, with a turnaround in growth rate[3] Consumer and Investment Trends - Private consumption growth rate slightly decreased from 0.9% to 0.6%, but remained positive[3] - Private sector investment growth rate increased from 4.2% to 5.1%, contributing 1.0 percentage points to GDP[3] - Government spending continued to decline, with a growth rate improvement from -1.6% to -0.4%[3] Export Dynamics - Export growth rate rebounded significantly from -1.2% to 8.4%, with goods exports rising from 2.7% to 8.2%[3] - Net exports contributed 1.3 percentage points to GDP growth, indicating a positive shift in external demand[3] Future Outlook - The Bank of Japan is expected to resume interest rate hikes by the end of the year due to economic recovery prospects[1] - The Japanese government revised its GDP growth forecast for FY2025 down from 1.2% to 0.7%[1] - Risks include potential impacts from tariffs and inflation, which could affect economic momentum[1]

2025 年 08 月 15 日 锌：短期震荡 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 22480 | -0.53% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2811.5 | -1.28% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 78030 | -315 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 6970 | -1594 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 80798 | -5188 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 193713 | -588 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | -50 | 5 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -1.5 | 3.26 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） ...

Core Insights - The report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicates a significant rise in wholesale prices in July, driven by soaring profit margins, signaling a renewed threat of inflation to the U.S. economy [1][3] Group 1: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July showed a month-over-month increase of 0.9%, far exceeding the market expectation of 0.2%, marking the largest monthly increase since June 2022 [3] - Year-over-year, the PPI rose by 3.3%, the highest growth since February, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target inflation rate of 2% [3] Group 2: Service Inflation and Contributing Factors - Service inflation was identified as the primary driver of the overall PPI increase, with service prices rising by 1.1% in July, the largest increase since March 2022 [4] - The rise in trade service profit margins, which increased by 2%, has been linked to the ongoing impact of tariffs implemented during the Trump administration, as companies have passed some of the increased import costs onto service prices [4] - Wholesale prices for machinery and equipment rose by 3.8% in July, contributing to 30% of the service price increase, indicating significant cost pressures in the machinery and equipment sector [4] Group 3: Corporate Pricing Strategies and Economic Implications - Despite weak demand in the first half of the year, companies have adjusted their pricing strategies to offset increased costs from tariffs, further fueling inflation [5] - The extent to which companies pass tariff costs onto consumers will be crucial in determining future interest rate trends, with potential implications for inflationary pressures and consumer price levels [5] - The Federal Reserve may be compelled to adopt more aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation, which could simultaneously suppress economic growth and increase financing costs for businesses [5] Group 4: Global Market Impact - The unusual fluctuations in U.S. wholesale prices are expected to have a ripple effect on global markets, as the U.S. economy's policies and inflation trends influence financial markets worldwide [6] - Other central banks may closely monitor U.S. inflation dynamics and adjust their monetary policies accordingly, while global investors may reassess asset allocations in response to potential market volatility [6]

Group 1 - Japan's economy showed unexpected resilience in Q2, with GDP growth at an annualized rate of 1.0%, significantly above economists' expectations of 0.4% [1][2] - The first quarter's GDP was revised from a contraction to a growth of 0.6% [1] - Year-on-year GDP growth for Q2 was 1.2%, down from 1.8% in Q1 [1] Group 2 - Domestic demand was the main driver of the strong performance, with corporate investment rising by 1.3%, exceeding the expected 0.7% [4] - Private consumption, which accounts for nearly 60% of the economy, increased by 0.2%, supported by robust wage growth from this year's salary negotiations [4] Group 3 - Net exports contributed 0.3 percentage points to economic growth, with actual export values increasing by 2% despite higher tariff barriers [5] - Inbound tourism also bolstered net exports, with foreign tourist spending in Japan rising by 18% [5] Group 4 - The strong GDP data supports the Bank of Japan's path towards policy normalization, with expectations of potential interest rate hikes in the near future [6] - Approximately 42% of economists anticipate action from the Bank of Japan in October, despite expectations to maintain rates in the upcoming September meeting [6]

| 行用模 | 贵金属日评20250813: 美国7月核心CPl年率高于预期前值,关税收入难阻7月财政预算示字增加 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-08-12 | 2025-08-11 | 2025-08-06 | 收盘价 | 783.68 | 776. 04 | 779. 48 | -3. 44 | -7.64 | | | | | 成交量 | 2, 722. 00 | 194063.00 | 278074.00 | 191341.00 | -84, 011. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 215212. 00 | 204736.00 | 211644.00 | -6, 908. 00 | -10. 476.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 36045.00 | 36045.00 | 0. 00 | 0. 00 | 36045.0 ...

Group 1 - US Treasury Secretary Becerra expands the candidate pool for the Federal Reserve Chair, including former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and former Bush advisor Mark Sobel [1] - Fed Governor Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year, citing core personal consumption expenditures inflation nearing the 2% target [1] - UK Chief Economist Hugh Pill warns that while inflation pressures may ease, changes in long-term pricing and wage-setting behavior could delay future rate cuts [1] Group 2 - July electric vehicle sales reached a record high, accounting for 9.1% of total passenger vehicle sales, with used electric vehicle sales hitting 36,700 units [1] - The Bank of Japan's July meeting minutes indicate a consensus on future rate hikes, but concerns about the impact of US tariffs have lowered short-term rate hike expectations [1] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister Akizawa reveals that the US will modify a presidential order to provide tax relief measures for Japan, refunding overpaid tariffs and reducing tariffs on cars and parts [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Japan's central bank must exercise caution regarding interest rate hikes due to the potential negative impact of U.S. tariffs on the fragile economy [1][2] - Saito Ken emphasizes that the Bank of Japan should act carefully to avoid cooling the economy, which is currently trying to recover from decades of low growth and inflation [2][3] - The Bank of Japan ended a decade-long stimulus program last year and raised interest rates to 0.5% in January, but concerns about inflation remain [3] Group 2 - Political uncertainty stemming from U.S. tariffs is overshadowing Japan's economic outlook [4] - Saito Ken calls for the resignation of Prime Minister Kishida after the ruling coalition's poor performance in the recent Senate elections, which has weakened their control over the legislature [5][6] - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) needs to seek a stable coalition government under new leadership to maintain consistent policies [6]

Group 1 - Japan's real wages fell for the sixth consecutive month in June, raising concerns about the consumption-driven recovery of the world's fourth-largest economy, with a year-on-year decline of 1.3% after adjusting for inflation [1] - The core inflation rate in Japan has exceeded the Bank of Japan's target, potentially providing room for interest rate hikes, although geopolitical and tariff factors are increasing economic risks [1] - Despite a 3% year-on-year increase in special payments in June due to summer bonuses, it has not kept pace with rising inflation, indicating broader pressures on consumer spending [1] Group 2 - Nominal overall cash earnings increased by 2.5% in June, reaching 511,210 yen, marking the largest increase in four months, and surpassing the revised 1.4% increase in May [1] - Basic wages rose by 2.1%, while overtime pay increased by 0.9%, highlighting the importance of wage trends in maintaining consumer momentum [1]

Group 1 - The CEO of MUFG suggests that the Bank of Japan should raise interest rates soon, potentially as early as September or October, due to strong inflation pressures in Japan [1][5] - MUFG aims for a record annual profit target of 2 trillion yen (approximately 135 billion USD) for the fiscal year, as reported in their first-quarter earnings [2] - The recent increase in interest rates and the depreciation of the yen have significantly contributed to MUFG's strong performance, with half of its recent success attributed to these factors [5] Group 2 - Continuous wage growth is identified as a key condition for the Bank of Japan to consider raising interest rates, with expectations that companies may continue to increase wages due to labor shortages [5] - MUFG is currently not in a hurry to purchase Japanese government bonds, indicating that rising yields are raising concerns about fiscal expansion policies [5] - Despite a year-to-date stock price increase of approximately 11%, MUFG is not yet perceived as a growth stock, and convincing investors of its expansion potential is necessary to drive up its stock price [5]