路透：日本央行正在调整沟通方式，为市场做好准备，可能最早于12月加息。#行情 日元短线走强，美元兑日元跌40点。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，前日本央行货币政策主管门间一夫(Kazuo Momma)表示，近期日元走弱正增加日本央行在下个月加息的可能性。他周二表示："只要没 有重大负面消息出现，且日元维持在当前水平附近，12月加息的可能性就相当高。""完全没有必要等待工资、物价或经济等指标发出更强烈的信号。"他发 表这番言论时，美元兑日元汇率位于156.80附近。 随着日本央行内部出现更多支持近期加息的信号，市场参与者正试图判断日本央行会在12月还是明年1月加息。与此同时，由于市场押注日本政府将力推积 极的财政政策、主张保持宽松货币政策，日元近段时间以来持续走软。过去三个月，日元已贬值约5%。 尽管日元疲软能够提振出口，但同时也将推高本已高企的燃料和食品进口成本，并加剧通胀压力。上周，日元兑美元汇率一度创下10个月新低，达到过去曾 促使日本当局干预汇市的水平。 日本央行行长植田和男上周表示，央行必须密切关注日元疲软对潜在通胀的影响。这番言论显示出更高的警惕性。日本核心通胀指标上月加速至3%，并已 连续三年半维持在日本央行2%的目标位上方或附近。 交易员预计，日本央行在12月19日下次政策会议上加息的概率约为40%。根据隔夜指数掉期 ...

据华尔街日报报道，美国旧金山联储主席、2027年FOMC票委戴利表示，她支持在下个月降息，因为她 认为就业市场突然恶化的可能性比通胀骤然上升更大，也更难以控制。 她在周一的采访中说："在劳动力市场上，我没有信心我们能走在前面。现在劳动力市场已足够脆弱， 风险在于发生非线性变化。" 她表示，相比之下，通胀爆发的风险较低，因为关税推动的成本增长比今年早些时候的预期要温和得 多。戴利的观点值得关注，尽管她今年对货币政策没有投票权，但她很少在公开场合与美联储主席鲍威 尔持不同意见。 今日周二(11月25日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于51.34一线上方，今日开盘于51.37美元/盎司，截至 发稿，国际白银暂报51.41美元/盎司，上涨0.13%，最高触及51.49美元/盎司，最低下探50.97美元/盎 司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 在12月9日至10日的会议上，戴利可能会在解决利率制定委员会内部关于是降息还是暂停加息的分歧上 发挥关键作用。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 国际白银在趋势中走出上涨空间，目前最高在51.4，白银预计在48.5/52.5区间看待，坚持看到52.5附 近，如果在本周 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The global risk appetite has decreased, with the VIX index and MOVE 5-day moving average rising significantly, leading to a synchronized decline in both stock and commodity markets [2] - Major global stock indices have generally retreated, with the technology sector experiencing notable declines, while gold, silver, copper, and oil also recorded drops [2][3] - The USD index has surpassed 100, and the Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, approaching the 160 mark against the dollar [2][5] Group 2: Equity Market Performance - The MSCI global index fell by 2.5%, with developed markets showing a pattern where declines in frontier markets were less severe than in developed and emerging markets [3] - In the U.S., major indices like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones dropped by 1.9%, while the Nasdaq fell by 2.7%, indicating increased scrutiny on the earnings quality of major tech firms [3] - Emerging markets saw significant declines in A-shares, with small-cap and tech boards dropping over 5.1%, while the Russian RTS index rose sharply by 9.1% [3] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bear steepening" trend, with the yield curve shifting upward and the 10Y-2Y spread widening [4] - In contrast, U.S. Treasury yields showed a "bull steepening" pattern, with the yield curve moving downward, influenced by dovish comments from the New York Fed [4] - The Japanese government is expected to issue additional bonds to finance a fiscal stimulus plan, which may lead to increased long-term bond yields [4] Group 4: Commodity and Currency Trends - Commodity indices such as South China and CRB fell by 1.8% and 2.2%, respectively, with only three out of thirteen major commodity futures recording price increases [5] - The dollar index rose by 0.9%, while the yen depreciated by 1.2%, which may benefit Japanese exporters but also heighten inflationary pressures [5] - The Bank of Japan faces increased pressure to raise interest rates due to the combination of yen depreciation and inflation [5] Group 5: Fixed Income Issuance and Trading - Net financing in the bond market increased, with a total issuance of 3,846.4 billion yuan against 2,555.6 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net increase of 1,290.8 billion yuan [9] - Secondary market trading volume decreased, with total transactions amounting to 7,783.28 billion yuan, down from 8,032.22 billion yuan the previous week [10] - The yield on 3-year AAA medium-term notes fell by 2.33 basis points to 1.86%, indicating a downward trend in short-term yields [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market has a certain degree of short - term uncertainty due to previous rises and overseas market adjustments, but the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, with attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [8]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to hold a bottom position and wait and see, with the Fed's easing policy expected to further drive prices in December [10]. - Most non - ferrous metals are expected to be in a state of shock in the short term, with different support and pressure factors [13][15][18]. - The steel market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, but demand may improve with policy implementation [36]. - The energy and chemical market shows different trends, with some products recommended for long - term strategies and others for short - term caution [56][58][60]. - The agricultural product market also has various trends, such as short - term weak operation for some and shock - based operation for others [81][86]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The US government may allow NVIDIA to sell H200 chips to China; the SASAC held a central enterprise specialization integration promotion meeting; Changxin Storage released new DDR5 products; a Goldman Sachs partner said the US stock market may continue to sell off [2]. - **Strategy View**: After previous rises and influenced by overseas market adjustments, the short - term index is uncertain, but the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: The main contracts of TL, T, and TF decreased on Friday, while TS remained unchanged. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates, and the US PMI data showed mixed results. The central bank conducted a net injection of 1622 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, with attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold prices rose slightly, and silver prices fell. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index were reported. Fed officials' "dovish" remarks supported precious metal prices [9]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to hold a bottom position and wait and see, with the Fed's easing policy expected to further drive prices in December [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price rebounded after a decline, with LME copper inventory decreasing and domestic spot premiums rising [12]. - **Strategy View**: The copper price is expected to be in a state of shock in the short term, with strong support at the bottom [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price rebounded after a decline, with domestic and overseas inventory changes and improved downstream procurement sentiment [14]. - **Strategy View**: The aluminum price is expected to strengthen after an oscillatory adjustment, with strong support [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [16]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with the zinc industry still in an over - supply cycle [18]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [19]. - **Strategy View**: The lead price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with relatively loose supply [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price continued to fall, with changes in spot premiums and cost [20]. - **Strategy View**: The nickel price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [21][22]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price fell slightly, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory. The safety situation in the DRC may affect tin mines [23]. - **Strategy View**: The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [24]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The carbonate lithium price fell, with changes in spot and futures prices [25]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to pay attention to potential disturbances and the reference range of the main contract [26]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [28]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with attention to supply - side policies [29]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and cost [30]. - **Strategy View**: The stainless steel price is expected to continue to decline weakly, with an over - supply situation [30]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [31]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to be in a state of shock in the short term [33]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The steel price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [35]. - **Strategy View**: The steel price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, but demand may improve with policy implementation [36]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price fell slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [37]. - **Strategy View**: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate within a range, with strong supply and stable demand [38][39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price fell, and the soda ash price fell. There were changes in inventory and basis [40][41]. - **Strategy View**: The glass price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the soda ash price is expected to be weakly volatile [40][41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon price fell, and the ferrosilicon price rose slightly. There were changes in inventory and basis [42]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and price, and to look for opportunities to rebound [44][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price fell, and the polysilicon price rose slightly. There were changes in inventory and basis [46][49]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate, and the polysilicon price is expected to oscillate within a wide range [48][50]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated and adjusted, with changes in tire factory start - up rates and inventory [52][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to have a bullish strategy with stop - loss settings and partial hedging [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil price fell, and there were changes in refined oil prices and inventory [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and test OPEC's export price - support willingness [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [59]. - **Strategy View**: The methanol price is expected to continue to decline weakly, with high inventory pressure [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [61]. - **Strategy View**: The urea price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene price was unchanged, and the styrene price rose. There were changes in inventory and basis [62]. - **Strategy View**: The styrene price may stop falling in stages, with cost and demand factors [63]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price was unchanged, with changes in inventory and basis [64]. - **Strategy View**: The PVC price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to go short in the medium term [66]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [67]. - **Strategy View**: The ethylene glycol price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to go short in the medium term [68]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [69]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA price is expected to be affected by supply, demand, and valuation factors [71]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The para - xylene price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [72]. - **Strategy View**: The para - xylene price is expected to have a risk of valuation correction, with high supply and low demand [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [74]. - **Strategy View**: The PE price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with cost and demand factors [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [77]. - **Strategy View**: The PP price is expected to be affected by cost and demand factors, and may be supported in the first quarter of next year [78]. Agricultural Products Category Pig - **Market Information**: The pig price fluctuated, with normal supply and limited demand [80]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go short on the near - month contract or do reverse spreads [81]. Egg - **Market Information**: The egg price was stable with partial increases, with reduced inventory pressure and increased replenishment willingness [82]. - **Strategy View**: The egg price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to go short after a rebound in the medium term [83][84]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The soybean meal price was stable, with changes in import cost, inventory, and demand [85]. - **Strategy View**: The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate, with cost support and pressure on crushing margins [86]. Edible Oils - **Market Information**: The edible oil price fell, with weak palm oil export data and high supply [87]. - **Strategy View**: The palm oil price is recommended to be viewed with an oscillatory perspective, and turn to a bullish strategy if production decreases [88][89]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar price fell, with an expected global surplus in the 2025/26 season and increased imports [90][91]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then go short [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton price oscillated narrowly, with changes in production, inventory, and demand [92][93]. - **Strategy View**: The cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with no strong driving force [94].

Core Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve's acknowledgment of a K-shaped economy highlights the disparity between low-income consumers, who are downgrading their consumption, and high-income individuals, who continue to spend lavishly [3][5] - The aggressive interest rate hikes initiated in 2022 have led to a significant divide in consumer spending, with low-income groups experiencing stagnation or decline in credit card spending, while high-income groups drive overall credit card consumption growth [5][7] Consumer Behavior - Research indicates that a 1% increase in the federal funds rate results in a 0.9% decrease in credit card spending, disproportionately affecting lower-income consumers who face a twofold reduction in spending compared to higher-income individuals [7] - As of November 2025, the 30-day delinquency rate on credit cards reached 4.8%, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis, while the bad debt rate for buy-now-pay-later services surged to 9.5% [7] Corporate Sector Dynamics - Capital expenditures in the AI sector are primarily concentrated among tech giants like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, which possess substantial cash reserves, while small businesses struggle under high-interest rates [8][10] - The National Federation of Independent Business reported that small business confidence has remained below the 50-year average for 22 consecutive months, with credit access at its most challenging level since the European debt crisis in 2012 [10] Wealth Distribution and Policy Implications - The wealth concentration in the U.S. is stark, with the top 1% holding over 32% of the nation's wealth, while the bottom 50% possess only 2.5% [10][12] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policies have inadvertently exacerbated wealth inequality, benefiting wealthy savers while placing a heavier burden on low-income borrowers [12][18] Future Outlook - A potential interest rate cut in the first half of 2026 is anticipated, but it is expected to be cautious and gradual rather than aggressive [14][16] - The impact of any rate cuts will likely be uneven, providing relief to lower-income consumers and small businesses while potentially inflating asset values for the wealthy [16][18] Structural Solutions - Long-term solutions to the K-shaped economy require fiscal policy changes, including a fairer tax system and targeted social transfers, which are currently hindered by political divisions [18][20]

智通财经APP注意到，市场对日本新任首相高市早苗的热情已然消退：过去一周东京上市公司市值蒸发约1270亿美元，日元和政府债券亦大幅下跌。 虽然消费者有理由为她开启疫情以来最大规模额外支出计划而欢呼，但投资者却担心日本可能正在透支财力。他们同时还担忧，日本央行短期内加息以抑制 通胀的可能性正在降低。 一些大型资产管理公司已开始瞄准日本债务市场的弱点，而日元则持续低迷，自10月初高市早苗赢得自民党总裁之位以来，日元已成为兑美元表现最差的主 要货币。 突显政府面临挑战的是，交易员周五基本上无视了财务大臣片山皋月的警告，她提醒投机者当局可能会干预汇市以支撑本币。 "市场对日本官员的言论正在变得不敏感，"澳大利亚国民银行外汇策略师罗德里戈·卡特里尔表示，并补充说日元正变成一种"玩物"。"有坚实的宏观理由证 明日元走弱是合理的。" 在股市，风险已超出与刺激措施相关的紧张情绪。周五日本股市被席卷亚洲的跌势波及，科技股遭遇重挫。 在上月高市早苗掌权时上涨后，包含日本许多大型出口商和科技公司的日经225指数本周收跌3.5%。更广泛的东证指数下跌1.8%。 纵观东京所有上市公司，本周市值损失约20万亿日元，相当于1270亿美元。 ...

目前日本央行陷入两难境地：通胀持续高于政策目标，而受美国关税冲击，日本GDP增长数据正持续走 弱。截至9月的三个月内，日本GDP出现六个季度以来首次收缩，环比下降0.4%，年化降幅达1.8%。 美元/日元技术分析 日线相对强弱指数（RSI）显示出轻微超买信号，这抑制了交易员对美元/日元货币对建立新的看涨头寸 的意愿。因此，在为下一波上涨布局之前，谨慎的做法是等待短期内出现一定幅度的盘整或小幅回调。 与此同时，当前任何修正性下跌都可能在157.00关口略下方获得初步支撑，随后是156.65-156.60区域； 若跌破该区域，美元对日元汇率可能进一步跌向156.00关口。这一水平将成为关键支撑位，一旦失守， 将为更大幅度的下跌打开空间。 反之，若上行，158.00将构成首个阻力位，突破该水平后，美元兑日元有望进一步升向158.50附近的下 一个重要阻力区。届时多头动能可能继续扩大，推动汇价挑战1月初的高点，即接近159.00区域。 周五（11月21日）亚洲时段，美元/日元小幅回落，最新美元兑日元汇率徘徊在157.20附近，日本10月核 心通胀率以自7月以来最快速度攀升，这为日本央行加息提供了依据。由于市场担忧日本 ...

日本总务省周五公布的数据显示，扣除生鲜食品的消费者价格同比上涨3%，住宿、车险保费和家用耐 用品成本上涨对该指标形成上行推力。数据与经济学家预期中值一致，上月涨幅为2.9%。 经济学家木村太郎表示："日本10月通胀升温表明，日本央行可能提前加息——除非政治因素从中作 梗。企业正在本财年下半段上调家庭用品及休闲服务价格。" 日本通胀现结构性分化：住宿费与车险推升，能源与食品涨幅放缓 智通财经APP获悉，日本通胀率小幅走高、出口回升，使日本央行在未来数月加息的计划将得以保持， 与此同时日本首相高市早苗正准备出台经济方案，以纾解民众对不断上涨的生活成本的怨声。 图1 消费者价格已连续43个月达到或超过日本央行2%的目标，为1992年以来最长周期。更贴近价格趋势的 一项指标(剔除能源)从3%加速升至3.1%。 同时，日本出口额连续第二个月实现增长，日元贬值有效提振了出口价值。然而，受关税政策影响，对 美出口货运量持续呈现下滑态势。财务省报告称，10月份以美元计价的出口同比增长3.6%，经济学家 此前预期为增长1.1%;对美出口下降3.1%。 图2 高市早苗将于周五晚些时候正式公布其首任经济方案。作为上月就任时承诺解决 ...

在日本国会的听证会上，日本央行行长植田和男表示，日元持续疲软可能进一步推高通胀。他指出，进 口价格因日元走弱而上升，企业当前更愿意提高工资和产品价格。 （文章来源：新华财经） 此外，审议委员小枝淳子昨日也发表了偏鹰言论，显示出政策层面对通胀风险的担忧正在上升。尽管副 行长冰见野良三在上次会议中与多数成员一同维持利率不变，但他本身被视为倾向鹰派。 植田强调，汇率波动对物价的影响正较以往更为显著，央行必须保持高度警惕。这一表态显示，他正倾 向于支持在12月加息。 目前看来，仅有野口旭仍坚定持鸽派立场。新成员增一行则被视为中间派，预计将跟随植田为首的主流 意见。 若植田最终投票支持加息，他将与此前已在10月会议上呼吁加息并投下反对票的两位鹰派委员（高田创 和田村直树）形成合力。 ...