Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **coal industry** in China, focusing on the impact of recent government policies aimed at combating low-price competition and addressing overproduction issues [1][2][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Resilience and Challenges**: - China's economy showed resilience in the first half of 2025, but risks of low-price competition and external demand decline are increasing. Export growth slowed in May, and the overall external environment worsened due to tariff adjustments and high-tech restrictions [1][14][15]. 2. **Deflation Risks**: - The domestic market faces deflation risks, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) declining for 32 consecutive months. This reflects an imbalance between supply and demand, leading to reduced consumer spending and increased savings preferences [1][16]. 3. **Government Policies**: - The government is promoting integrated domestic and foreign trade and has introduced anti-involution policies to prevent vicious price wars and emphasize profit and development. These policies aim to stabilize economic growth through fiscal measures and regulatory oversight [1][17]. 4. **Coal Industry Challenges**: - The coal industry is experiencing homogenized competition, price wars, and profit shrinkage, which could lead to financial risks across the supply chain. Recent price increases in coking coal are primarily driven by capital rather than fundamental market conditions [1][19]. 5. **Production and Capacity Control**: - The government is accelerating the elimination of outdated coal production capacity and has set targets to phase out smaller coke ovens to improve efficiency and environmental standards [3][24]. 6. **Inventory Management**: - The coal industry faces inventory surplus issues, which are being addressed through various strategies, including exports and supply control to manage prices. Current inventory levels directly influence market volatility [5][22][23]. 7. **Market Dynamics**: - Recent price fluctuations in the coal market are significantly influenced by capital movements rather than fundamental supply-demand dynamics. The price of coking coal has risen from 780 to 1,198 points, driven by speculative capital [19][21]. 8. **Long-term Development Direction**: - The coal industry is expected to focus on controlling overproduction and meeting environmental requirements without pursuing large-scale reforms. The government encourages rational investment and market stability [28]. Other Important Content - **Comparison of Policies**: The current anti-involution policies differ from past supply-side reforms, emphasizing legal governance of low-price competition and promoting high-tech development rather than solely relying on cost reduction [2][4]. - **Impact of External Factors**: The ongoing trade tensions and tariff policies, particularly from the U.S., are affecting both Chinese exports and domestic economic stability, necessitating a shift towards higher value-added products [12][13][26]. - **Debt and Financial Risks**: High corporate debt levels, exacerbated by previous government incentives, pose risks to the macroeconomic environment. The government has initiated deleveraging strategies to mitigate these risks [7][27]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the coal industry's current challenges and the government's strategic responses to ensure sustainable growth.

Core Viewpoint - The financial industry is increasingly focusing on resisting "involution-style" competition, with institutions like Ping An Bank taking proactive measures to address this issue and promote sustainable business practices [2][4]. Group 1: Ping An Bank's Actions - On July 22, Ping An Bank held a meeting to outline its business development plan and promote the signing of commitment letters against "involution-style" competition among its over 2,000 employees [2]. - In Q1 2025, Ping An Bank reported a revenue of 33.709 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13.1%, and a net profit of 14.096 billion, down 5.6% [2]. - The bank's total assets reached 57.8 trillion at the end of Q1, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1% compared to the end of the previous year [2]. Group 2: Industry-Wide Trends - The Guangdong Banking Association has established a "1+3+N" system to combat "involution-style" competition, which includes a negative list from regulatory bodies and self-regulatory measures from various business sectors [4]. - The Guangdong Financial Regulatory Bureau has publicly opposed "involution-style" competition and is working on self-regulatory agreements to guide the industry [4]. Group 3: Broader Industry Context - The call for resisting "involution" is gaining traction nationwide, with provinces like Fujian and Anhui issuing self-regulatory agreements to prevent malicious competition and ensure compliance with regulatory requirements [5]. - In Shenzhen, despite being a major financial hub, there has been no clear stance from local regulators on "involution" competition, although the banking sector's total assets reached 13.57 trillion, growing by 1.37% year-on-year [5]. Group 4: Regulatory Measures and Market Impact - The implementation of the "reporting and execution consistency" policy in the insurance sector aims to standardize market practices and curb harmful competition, resulting in a 30% reduction in average commission levels in certain channels [6]. - The banking sector is facing significant pressure on profitability, with net interest margins declining to approximately 1.43% in Q1 2025, leading to concerns about the sustainability of business models [7]. Group 5: Responses to Challenges - Strategies proposed by industry leaders include international expansion, diversification of revenue sources, and the use of artificial intelligence to enhance operational efficiency [8]. - There are differing opinions on the effectiveness of "anti-involution" measures, with some industry professionals arguing that the root cause of the issue lies in the high degree of market homogeneity rather than just pricing strategies [8].

7月24日，国家发展改革委、市场监管总局发布关于《中华人民共和国价格法修正草案（征求意见稿）》 （下称《征求意见稿》）公开征求意见的公告。 对于市场最为关注的"反内卷"议题，修正草案进一步明确了不正当价格行为认定标准。 具体包括四方面： 一是完善低价倾销的认定标准，规范市场价格秩序，治理"内卷式"竞争。 二是完善价格串通、哄抬价格、价格歧视等不正当价格行为认定标准。 三是公用企事业单位、行业协会等不得利用影响力、行业优势地位等，强制或捆绑销售商品、提供服务并 收取价款。 四是强化对经营场所经营者价格行为的规范。 价格法自1998年实施以来，在引导资源优化配置、促进物价合理运行、保护消费者和经营者合法权益等方面发 挥了重要作用。随着经济社会发展和价格改革深化，价格法部分条款也需要修改完善。 2023年，价格法修订列入《十四届全国人大常委会立法规划》。按照部署要求，国家发展改革委、市场监管总 局研究起草了价格法修正草案。 据悉，修正草案共10条，主要涉及三方面内容，包括政府定价、明确不正当价格行为认定、健全价格违法行为 法律责任。 在完善政府定价方面，将结合政府价格管理方式变化，明确政府指导价不局限于基准价及其浮 ...

7月24日，国家发展改革委、市场监管总局发布关于《中华人民共和国价格法修正草案（征求意见 稿）》（下称《征求意见稿》）公开征求意见的公告。 价格法自1998年实施以来，在引导资源优化配置、促进物价合理运行、保护消费者和经营者合法权益等 方面发挥了重要作用。随着经济社会发展和价格改革深化，价格法部分条款也需要修改完善。 2023年，价格法修订列入《十四届全国人大常委会立法规划》。按照部署要求，国家发展改革委、市场 监管总局研究起草了价格法修正草案。 在《征求意见稿》中，增设了多条与"反内卷"相关的款项内容，例如：明确经营者不得利用数据和算 法、技术以及规则等从事前款规定的不正当价格行为；不得在依法降价处理鲜活商品、季节性商品、积 压商品等商品或者有正当理由降价提供服务外，为了排挤竞争对手或者独占市场，以低于成本的价格倾 销，或者强制其他经营者按照其定价规则以低于成本的价格倾销。 这些细节内容，无不反映出监管层治理"内卷式"竞争的决心。对于那些价格违法行为，监管层面也会加 大处罚力度。《征求意见稿》显示，将调整对经营者不正当价格行为的处罚规定，提高经营者违反明码 标价规定的处罚标准，明确经营者拒绝或者虚假提供成本 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **supply-side reform** and **anti-involution competition** within various industries, particularly focusing on the **PCI (Price Change Index)** and its implications for industrial production and pricing dynamics [1][2][3][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Supply-Side Dynamics**: The current supply-side reform is characterized by a gradual optimization of excess capacity, with a focus on controlling new increments while optimizing existing stock [1][2]. 2. **Demand-Side Considerations**: There is a need to explore the willingness and ability of demand to absorb excess production, particularly in the context of new capacity and production levels [2][3]. 3. **Historical Context**: The call references historical cases from 1998 and 2015-2016, indicating that anti-involution competition can have a positive impact on the GCI (Gross Commodity Index) by enhancing supply-side optimization [3][4]. 4. **Inflation Trends**: The inflation data for June shows a positive trend, with the PCI reflecting unexpected stabilization, influenced by industrial consumption prices turning from decline to increase [7][8]. 5. **Price Stability**: The discussion emphasizes that price stability is contingent upon the intensity of supply-side reforms and the execution of related policies [8][19]. 6. **Macroeconomic Policies**: The macroeconomic policy framework is expected to focus on stabilizing market expectations, with potential for further interest rate cuts and liquidity injections [12][13]. 7. **Employment Focus**: Employment remains a core focus of policy considerations, especially in the context of achieving a target unemployment rate below 5.5% [13]. 8. **Investment and Consumption**: Investment and consumption are projected to maintain a stable trajectory, with GDP growth expected around 5% for the year, despite potential downward pressure on exports [16][17]. 9. **Commodity Prices**: The call indicates a mixed outlook for commodity prices, with some agricultural products and crude oil showing potential for short-term opportunities [18][19]. Additional Important Insights - **Sector-Specific Performance**: The call highlights that certain sectors, such as petroleum, non-ferrous metals, and automotive manufacturing, are experiencing higher month-on-month growth rates [3]. - **Consumer Price Index (CPI) Trends**: The CPI data indicates a slight increase in consumer prices, particularly in agricultural products, suggesting a moderate recovery in consumer demand [9][10]. - **External Factors**: The impact of external demand, particularly from the U.S., is noted as a significant factor that could influence domestic pricing and economic stability [16][17]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the industry.

Group 1 - The express delivery industry in China continues to maintain high growth, with the volume of express deliveries exceeding 100 billion pieces by July 9, 2023, 35 days earlier than expected for 2024 [2] - The rapid growth is attributed to policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, particularly the "old-for-new" replacement policy for consumer goods [2][3] - The express delivery sector has achieved a significant scale economy effect, enhancing its ability to drive industrial and economic growth [2] Group 2 - The integration of the express delivery industry with manufacturing and other sectors has expanded its service scope and development space, with over 1,600 key projects generating more than 1 million yuan in revenue [2] - The widespread application of technologies such as 5G, IoT, and AI is accelerating the intelligent upgrade of the express delivery industry [3] - The industry is facing intense competition, leading to ongoing price wars that have affected service quality [3][4] Group 3 - In the first five months of 2025, the average price of express delivery services was 7.5 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%, with the first quarter seeing an average price of 7.7 yuan, down 8.8% [4] - Despite calls to avoid price wars, companies are compelled to lower prices to gain market share, significantly impacting firms like SF Express, which reported a 3.4% decline in average revenue per ticket [4] Group 4 - Recent government initiatives aim to combat "involutionary" competition in the express delivery sector, emphasizing the need for improved industry regulation and service quality [5]

Inflation Data - June CPI year-on-year growth rate is 0.1%, an improvement from the previous value of -0.1%, exceeding market expectations of 0%[3] - June PPI year-on-year growth rate recorded at -3.6%, lower than market expectations of -3.2%[7] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 14-month high[5] Price Movements - Industrial consumer goods prices saw a narrowing decline from -1.0% in May to -0.5% in June, contributing less to CPI decline by approximately 0.18 percentage points[3] - Gasoline prices shifted from a 3.8% decline to a 0.4% increase in June, influenced by international oil price movements[4] - Platinum jewelry prices surged by 12.6% in June, the largest monthly increase in nearly a decade[3] Economic Outlook - The market is expected to exhibit a dual bull structure in stocks and bonds in the second half of the year, supported by improving US-China trade relations and risk-averse funds[2] - Fixed income yields, particularly the 10-year government bond rate, are projected to decline to around 1.5% amid low domestic demand stimulus probability[2] Consumer Demand - Consumer demand is in a critical recovery phase, with incremental counter-cyclical policies expected to enhance demand and gradually improve CPI levels[7] - The demand for high-quality living is increasing, leading to price recoveries in related industries[9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, the policy helps promote enterprise technological innovation, industrial upgrading of new - quality productivity, and long - term profitability repair of enterprises, but relevant sectors may face pressure during the elimination of backward production capacity, and the basis discount of stock index futures may widen. The overall view is that the market will be volatile [1] - For treasury bond futures, the bond market is in an environment of loose funds, stable economy, and low short - term interest rate cut expectations, with insufficient upward and downward momentum, and is expected to continue a volatile trend in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 1st, policies such as the sixth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission and the release of an article in Qiushi magazine were introduced. These policies are beneficial for long - term corporate profitability and A - share investment returns, but relevant sectors may face short - term pressure, and the basis discount of stock index futures may widen. The market is expected to be volatile [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 8th, treasury bond futures closed with some declines. The central bank conducted 1065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 225 billion yuan. The capital market is loose, and the economy is stable. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term [1] 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: From July 4th to July 7th, IH decreased by 9.2 points (- 0.34%), IF decreased by 18.0 points (- 0.46%), IC decreased by 15.0 points (- 0.26%), and IM decreased by 0.6 points (- 0.01%) [2] - **Stock Indexes**: From July 4th to July 7th, the Shanghai Composite 50 decreased by 8.9 points (- 0.33%), the CSI 300 decreased by 17.0 points (- 0.43%), the CSI 500 decreased by 11.0 points (- 0.19%), and the CSI 1000 increased by 14.9 points (0.24%) [2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: From July 4th to July 7th, TS decreased by 0.006 points (- 0.01%), TF decreased by 0.03 points (- 0.03%), T increased by 0.005 points (0.00%), and TL decreased by 0.05 points (- 0.04%) [2] 3.3 Market News - China's foreign exchange reserves in June were 3.317422 trillion US dollars, higher than the expected 3.3 trillion US dollars and the previous value of 3.28526 trillion US dollars [3] - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves were 73.9 million ounces (about 2298.55 tons), an increase of 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) from the previous month, and it was the 8th consecutive month of gold purchases [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective monthly basis trends [6][7][9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][15][17] - **Exchange Rates**: There are charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [20][21][24] 4. Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with futures qualification number F3060829 and consulting qualification number Z0015271 [27] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, focuses on stock index futures, and is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry research, index financial report analysis, and market capital tracking, with futures qualification number F03087149 and consulting qualification number Z0019537 [27]

Core Viewpoint - A new round of anti-"involution" competition has been initiated, affecting both traditional industries like steel and cement, as well as emerging sectors such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and lithium batteries. The central government has signaled a commitment to address low-price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity [1][4][6]. Group 1: Government Initiatives - The Central Economic Committee's recent meeting emphasized the need to govern low-price disorderly competition legally and systematically, aiming to enhance product quality and facilitate the exit of outdated production capacity [1][6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has held discussions with photovoltaic industry leaders to address the challenges posed by low-price competition and to promote high-quality development within the sector [11][12]. - The revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law, effective from October 15, 2025, aims to provide legal tools to combat "involution" competition, particularly targeting platform operators who enforce below-cost pricing [9][10]. Group 2: Industry Responses - Various industry associations, including those in steel, cement, and battery sectors, have called for a collective response against "involution" competition, advocating for quality over price in market competition [3][16][19]. - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing significant pressure, with upstream silicon material prices plummeting, leading to a collective financial strain across the entire supply chain [12][14]. - Industry leaders have highlighted the necessity for consolidation and stricter control of production capacity to overcome the challenges posed by "involution" competition, suggesting that cooperation is essential for long-term sustainability [14][19]. Group 3: Economic Context - The current "involution" phenomenon is attributed to two main factors: a cyclical economic adjustment leading to heightened price sensitivity among consumers, and external pressures from a de-globalizing environment that compel companies to compete primarily on price [7][8]. - The imbalance between supply and demand in various sectors, particularly in the steel industry, has resulted in increased production despite declining consumption, exacerbating the "involution" issue [18][19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that comprehensive rectification of "involutionary" competition is a key measure to address current economic development contradictions, affecting both traditional and emerging industries [1][4][5] - The new round of anti-involution policies includes not only traditional industries like steel and cement but also emerging sectors such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and lithium batteries, which have a higher proportion of private enterprises [1][4][5] - The recent Central Economic Committee meeting highlighted the need to legally govern low-price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, signaling a national-level response to involution [2][5] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has initiated discussions with photovoltaic industry leaders to address production, innovation, and market competition challenges, aiming to support high-quality development in the sector [10] - The photovoltaic industry has faced significant pressure, with prices for silicon materials and components dropping below cash costs, leading to a substantial decline in profit margins [11][12] - Various industry associations, including those in steel, cement, and battery sectors, have called for a collective response to involution, advocating for quality over price competition and industry cooperation [13][15] Group 3 - The revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law, effective from October 15, 2025, aims to provide institutional tools to curb "involutionary" competition, particularly targeting platform operators to prevent forced low-cost sales [9] - Experts have identified two main causes of the current involution phenomenon: domestic economic adjustments leading to price sensitivity and external pressures on Chinese enterprises due to de-globalization [6][7] - The steel industry is particularly affected by involution, with a significant increase in crude steel production despite declining apparent consumption, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [15]