Group 1 - The Chinese commodity futures market has experienced significant volatility this year, with high investor sentiment and concentrated capital, particularly in gold futures [1][2] - The gold futures segment has seen a substantial increase in capital, surpassing 100 billion yuan, with major players like CITIC Futures and Guotai Junan Futures holding significant positions [1][3] - Analysts indicate that investment opportunities are evident across different sectors, with precious metals leading in performance, followed by agricultural products and non-ferrous metals [1][2] Group 2 - The concentration of funds in the commodity market has increased, with the total amount of funds in commodity futures reaching nearly 480 billion yuan, up from 330 billion yuan at the beginning of the year [3][4] - The precious metals sector has shown a remarkable increase of nearly 17% year-to-date, while agricultural products and non-ferrous metals have also demonstrated notable activity [2][3] - The shift in institutional positions reflects a growing preference for gold futures, with significant changes in the leading positions among major futures companies [4] Group 3 - Analysts predict a divergence in market trends for the second quarter, with precious metals likely to maintain strong momentum while other sectors, particularly energy and chemicals, may weaken [4][5] - The energy and chemical sectors are under pressure from cost constraints, and international trade dynamics may lead to further declines in energy prices [5] - Gold is expected to remain a favored asset due to ongoing geopolitical risks, with expectations of continued strong demand from investors seeking safe-haven assets [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Nanhua Comprehensive Index dropped 63.9 points, a decline of -2.46%. The most influential varieties were glass and soda ash, with the glass variety index falling -19.09% and contributing -0.45%, and the soda ash variety index falling -12.78% and contributing -0.41% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 143.52 points, a -3.75% decline. The most influential varieties were glass and coke, with the glass variety index contributing -0.58% and the coke variety index contributing -0.57% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Metal Index declined by 231.92 points, a -3.52% drop. The most influential variety was rebar, contributing -0.83% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index fell 74.12 points, a -4.15% decline. The most influential variety was glass, contributing -0.86% [2]. - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index decreased by 11.57 points, a -1.05% decline. The most influential variety was live pigs, contributing -0.35% [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Data Overview | Index Name | This Week's Closing | Last Week's Closing | Change in Points | Change Rate | This Week's Maximum | This Week's Minimum | Volatility | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Comprehensive Index NHCI | 2532.30 | 2596.21 | -63.90 | -2.46% | 2596.21 | 2532.30 | 63.90 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 1233.23 | 1265.35 | -32.12 | -2.54% | 1265.35 | 1233.23 | 32.12 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3680.14 | 3823.66 | -143.52 | -3.75% | 3823.66 | 3680.14 | 143.52 | | Metal Index NHMI | 6362.56 | 6594.47 | -231.92 | -3.52% | 6594.47 | 6358.30 | 236.18 | | Energy and Chemical Index NHECI | 1713.91 | 1788.03 | -74.12 | -4.15% | 1788.03 | 1713.91 | 74.12 | | Non - ferrous Metals Index NHNFI | 1676.07 | 1734.53 | -58.46 | -3.37% | 1734.53 | 1676.07 | 58.46 | | Black Index NHFI | 2551.46 | 2683.73 | -132.27 | -4.93% | 2683.73 | 2551.46 | 132.27 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1090.74 | 1102.32 | -11.57 | -1.05% | 1102.32 | 1090.74 | 11.57 | | Nanhua Comprehensive Index NHCIMi | 1201.10 | 1214.44 | -13.33 | -1.10% | 1214.44 | 1191.96 | 22.48 | | Energy Index NHEI | 1112.54 | 1115.74 | -3.20 | -0.29% | 1128.64 | 1085.19 | 43.45 | | Petrochemical Index NHPCI | 958.73 | 986.16 | -27.44 | -2.78% | 986.16 | 958.73 | 27.44 | | Forestry and Industry Index NHCCI | 1046.71 | 1093.43 | -46.72 | -4.27% | 1093.43 | 1046.71 | 46.72 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHFMI | 1043.56 | 1105.10 | -61.54 | -5.57% | 1105.10 | 1043.56 | 61.54 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 769.05 | 832.71 | -63.66 | -7.64% | 832.71 | 769.05 | 63.66 | | Oilseeds Index HOOl | 1238.59 | 1236.73 | 1.87 | 0.15% | 1244.38 | 1229.85 | 14.54 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 886.36 | 913.12 | -26.76 | -2.93% | 913.12 | 886.36 | 26.76 | [3] 3.2. Nanhua Variety Index Arbitrage Data - The report provides data on the ratio of various Nanhua variety indices, including the current value, previous value, change, and ranking. For example, the ratio of the precious metals index to the comprehensive index is 0.487, with a change of -0.000384339 and a ranking of 0.790 [6]. 3.3. Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Fluctuation to the Index Fluctuation - The report presents the average weekly open interest, month - on - month increase, and open interest ratio of various futures varieties. For instance, the average weekly open interest of soybean meal is 4,759,408 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of -1.56% and an open interest ratio of 12.45% [8]. 3.4. Weekly Data of Nanhua's Sector Indices - **Nanhua Industrial Products Index**: Closed at 3680.14 this week, down 3.75% from last week. The top six contributing varieties were glass, coke, soda ash, rebar, natural rubber, and alumina [10]. - **Nanhua Metal Index**: Closed at 6362.56 this week, down 3.52% from last week. The top three contributing varieties were rebar, lithium carbonate, and alumina [10]. - **Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index**: Closed at 1713.91 this week, down 4.15% from last week. The top three contributing varieties were glass, coke, and soda ash [10]. - **Nanhua Agricultural Products Index**: Closed at 1090.74 this week, down 1.05% from last week. The top three contributing varieties were live pigs, cotton, and apples [10]. - **Nanhua Black Index**: Closed at 2551.46 this week, down 4.93% from last week. The top three contributing varieties were coke, rebar, and iron ore [11]. - **Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index**: Closed at 1676.07 this week, down 3.37% from last week. The top two contributing varieties were lithium carbonate and alumina [13].

Group 1: Market Performance Summary - The Nanhua Composite Index declined by -0.19% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1]. - Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Metal Index rose by 0.07%, while the rest declined. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the largest decline of -0.68%, and the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index had the smallest decline of -0.02% [1][2]. - In the theme indices, the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the largest increase of 0.27%, and the Mini Composite Index had the smallest increase of 0.03%. The Energy Index had the largest decline of -0.73%, and the Black Raw Materials Index had the smallest decline of -0.04% [1][2]. - Among the single - variety commodity futures indices, the jujube index rose by 2.1%, and the coking coal index had the largest decline of -5.38% [2]. Group 2: Index Data Details - Various index data including today's closing price, previous closing price, annualized return, annualized volatility are presented, such as the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index (NHAl), Mini Composite Index (NHClM), etc. [2] Group 3: Industry Chain and Single - Variety Index Changes - The single - variety index daily changes and industry chain diagrams of the energy and chemical, black, and agricultural product sectors are provided. For example, in the energy and chemical sector, glass declined by -1.34%, and in the agricultural product sector, palm oil rose by 0.11% [2][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market conditions of various commodities are complex and affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and macro - economic situations. Different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities based on their specific fundamentals and market performances [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories 3.1 Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market showed copper prices fluctuated weakly yesterday, with a nearly 20% drop due to a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper. Fundamentally, strong US employment data, a hawkish Fed, and a stronger dollar pressured metals. Short - term, the strong dollar pressures metals; mid - term, a buy - on - dips strategy is maintained [1]. - **Aluminum**: The 2509 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed up 0.10% yesterday. Supply is increasing as plants operate at high loads, while demand is in the traditional off - season with a slight decline in the开工 rate of aluminum products. Aluminum prices have limited upside and are expected to oscillate; it's recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract of alumina closed up 0.57% yesterday. Supply capacity is increasing, and demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is stable. It's in a multi - empty game stage; it's advised to wait for clearer signals and stay on the sidelines [1]. - **Zinc**: The 2508 contract of zinc closed up 0.11% yesterday. Supply pressure continues as port inventories of concentrates decrease but import TC jumps and refinery profits are high. Consumption is weak in the off - season, and there is a risk of a squeeze. A sell - on - rallies strategy is recommended [1]. - **Lead**: The 2508 contract of lead closed down 0.06% yesterday. Supply is restricted by refinery maintenance and slow restart of recycled lead production. Consumption shows some resilience but at a low level. Inventory is increasing, and spot liquidity is tightening. A range - bound operation with short - term long positions on pullbacks is suggested [1][2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 09 contract closed down. Supply is increasing with复产 plans in the northwest and Xinjiang. Demand is mixed, with stable polysilicon开工, a decline in organic silicon output, and a slowdown in aluminum alloy demand. The market is expected to oscillate widely; it's recommended to wait and see and monitor复产 plans [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2509 contract closed up. Supply is decreasing slightly, and demand is expected to improve marginally. Inventories are at a record high. Due to the retreat of anti - involution trading, prices are expected to correct in the short term with increased volatility; caution is advised [2]. - **Polysilicon**: The 09 contract closed up. Supply is increasing slightly, and demand is weak with a decline in silicon wafer and battery cell production and a pessimistic outlook for photovoltaic installations. The market is expected to oscillate widely between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan; it's recommended to wait and see and watch for policy and warehouse receipt changes [2]. - **Tin**: Tin prices continued to fluctuate weakly. Strong US data, a hawkish Fed, and a stronger dollar pressured metals. Supply and demand are both weak. A range - bound trading approach is recommended [2]. 3.2 Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract of rebar closed down. Supply and demand are relatively balanced but structurally differentiated. Futures are slightly over - valued. A short - term short - selling strategy is recommended [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract of iron ore closed down. Supply and demand are neutral to strong. Futures are fairly valued. It's recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract of coking coal closed down. Supply and demand are generally loose but improving. Futures are over - valued. It's recommended to wait and see [3]. 3.3 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans continued to fall. Supply is abundant both in the near and long term, and demand for US soybeans is weak due to tariffs. US soybeans are expected to be weak in the short term; domestic soybeans may follow international cost trends in the medium term. Monitor weather and tariff policies [4]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract of corn oscillated narrowly. Supply is tight with less remaining grain, but substitute products and imports affect prices. Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract of sugar closed down. Indian sugar exports pressured the market, while domestic prices rebounded due to positive sentiment. Futures are expected to oscillate weakly; a short - selling strategy in the futures market and selling call options are recommended [5]. - **Cotton**: US cotton futures fell, and Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated down. International tariff policies and domestic industrial losses affected the market. It's recommended to wait and see and trade within the 13,600 - 14,000 yuan range [5]. - **Log**: The 09 contract of log closed down. Market activity increased in trading volume and open interest, but spot prices were stable. It's recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil continued to rise. Supply is in the seasonal growth period, and demand for exports is weak. Short - term, it's in a weak cycle; medium - term, it's recommended to be long - biased [5]. - **Egg**: The 2509 contract of egg was weak. High temperatures reduced supply, and demand may increase seasonally, but high cold - storage egg inventories will limit price increases. Futures prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Live Pig**: The 2509 contract of live pig was weak. Consumption is seasonally weak, and supply pressure is high. Pig prices are expected to decline in the medium term. Monitor the slaughter rhythm and secondary fattening [6]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE contract fell slightly. Supply is increasing domestically but may decrease in imports. Demand is improving in some areas. Short - term, it will oscillate; long - term, a short - selling strategy on far - month contracts is recommended [7]. - **PVC**: The V09 contract of PVC closed down. Supply is expected to increase, and inventories are rising. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [7]. - **Rubber**: The RU2509 contract of rubber closed down. Raw material prices are falling, and inventories are increasing. It's expected to oscillate widely; it's recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Glass**: The FG09 contract of glass closed down. Supply may increase, and inventories are falling. A buy - on - dips strategy is recommended [7]. - **PP**: The PP contract fell slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is differentiated. Short - term, it will oscillate weakly; long - term, a short - selling strategy on far - month contracts is recommended [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices rose sharply. Supply may be disrupted due to potential sanctions, and demand is mixed. It's recommended to wait and see due to uncertainty [8]. - **Styrene**: The EB contract oscillated slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Short - term, it will oscillate weakly; long - term, a short - selling strategy on far - month contracts is recommended [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa09 contract of soda ash closed down. Supply is stable, and inventories are decreasing. It's recommended to wait and see or try short - selling options [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view of soybean meal futures prices is influenced by market sentiment and fluctuates significantly. In the short - term, it may turn to a volatile trend, while the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all bullish with a volatile bias [5]. - Palm oil futures prices are boosted by the slight rebound of international oil prices and the oil - meal arbitrage. In the short - term, it benefits from biodiesel demand and international crude oil prices, and the intraday and medium - term views are bullish with a volatile bias [8]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: bullish; Medium - term: bullish; Intraday: bullish with a volatile bias; Reference view: bullish with a volatile bias [5][7] - **Core Logic**: After the concentrated exit of long - position funds, the futures price dropped significantly. The market is waiting for the result of the US trade negotiations with other countries, which will affect the export prospects of US soybeans. Before the final result is announced, the US soybean futures price will remain volatile. The price of soybean meal futures is more affected by market sentiment and fluctuates violently. In the short - term, it may turn to a volatile trend [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: bullish with a volatile bias; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: bullish with a volatile bias; Reference view: bullish with a volatile bias [7][8] - **Core Logic**: The slight rebound of international oil prices boosts the entire oil and fat sector. As the variety with the strongest energy attribute in the oil and fat sector, palm oil is the first to be affected and shows strength. In addition, it is favored by funds due to the oil - meal arbitrage. In the short - term, it benefits from biodiesel demand and international crude oil prices. Attention should also be paid to the possible adverse impact of the Indonesian fire on palm oil production in some areas [8]. Other Information - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term is within one week; Medium - term is from two weeks to one month (based on the previous day's night - session closing price) [7] - **Calculation of Price Fluctuation**: For varieties with night - session trading, the starting price is the night - session closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - session closing price of the current day. The definition of price trends is: a decline of more than 1% is considered weak; a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakly volatile; an increase of 0 - 1% is considered strongly volatile; an increase of more than 1% is considered strong. The views of strongly/weakly volatile only apply to intraday views, and no distinction is made between short - term and medium - term [2][3][4]

Report Summary 1. Index Performance - Today, the Nanhua Composite Index fell by -0.36% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1][9]. - Among the sector indices, the Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the largest increase of 1.04%, while the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index had the smallest increase of 0.38%. The Nanhua Metal Index had the largest decline of -1.01%, and the Nanhua Black Index had the smallest decline of -0.74% [1][9]. - Among the theme indices, the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the largest increase of 0.23%, and the Economic Crops Index had the smallest increase of 0.08%. The Building Materials Index had the largest decline of -1.56%, and the Energy Index had the smallest decline of -0.15% [1][9]. - Among the single - variety commodity futures indices, the largest decline was seen in carbonate with a decline of -4.8% [9]. 2. Some Single - Variety Index Data - Palm oil had a change of 0.76% and -0.35%, rapeseed oil had -0.22% and -0.02%, and corn had -0.04% [4]. - In the energy - chemical sector, synthetic ammonia had a decline of -3.04%, vinyl chloride had -2.07%, polyethylene had -1.12%, PTA had -0.21%, and crude oil had -0.12% [9]. 3. Other Information - The Nanhua Commodity Index eliminates price changes during contract roll - over and reflects the actual return on investing in commodity futures [5]. - The calculation method of contribution is the product of the daily change rate and the weight, and the contribution of a certain variety is calculated as the daily change rate of the variety divided by the sum of the daily change rates of all varieties [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of the performance and management of the Jianxin Energy Chemical Futures ETF for the second quarter of 2025, highlighting its investment strategy, financial indicators, and market outlook. Fund Product Overview - Fund Name: Jianxin Energy Chemical Futures ETF - Fund Code: 159981 - Fund Type: Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) - Effective Date of Fund Contract: December 13, 2019 - Total Fund Shares at Period End: 432,536,957 shares - Investment Objective: Closely track the underlying index, minimizing tracking deviation and error [2][3]. Financial Indicators and Fund Performance - Net Value Growth Rate for the past three months: -2.70% - Net Value Growth Rate for the past six months: -6.87% - Net Value Growth Rate for the past year: -18.24% - Net Value Growth Rate for the past three years: -18.31% - Net Value Growth Rate for the past five years: 59.89% - Since the fund contract's inception, the performance has been tracked against a benchmark with a return of -2.80% [4][5][12]. Management Report - The fund manager has been diligent in managing the fund's assets, ensuring compliance with relevant laws and regulations, and maintaining fair trading practices to protect investors' interests [7][8]. - The fund's investment strategy primarily involves index replication, aiming to align with the weights of the underlying index's component futures contracts [13][14]. Market Outlook - The market sentiment has improved due to signals from the Central Financial Committee regarding the promotion of a unified national market, although the domestic economy has not fully recovered [9][12]. - The report anticipates that the underlying index will experience a primarily fluctuating trend in the third quarter, with potential short-term trading opportunities [9][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term trends of various agricultural commodity futures are mainly in a state of oscillation, with different degrees of strength or weakness in the short - term [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5]. - **Core Logic**: Good weather in US soybean - producing areas, rising trade concerns, a well - supplied domestic soybean market, 8 - week consecutive low - level increase in oil mill soybean meal inventory, high - level continuous soybean meal pick - up volume, and an un - reversed negative basis of soybean meal. The short - term soybean meal futures price is affected by import cost, supply pressure, and trade concerns and turns to oscillating [5]. 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [7]. - **Core Logic**: The recent oil market is affected by the volatility of international oil prices, and market funds' attention to palm oil has increased. The palm oil market focuses on whether the Malaysian palm oil inventory can decline as expected. The phased supply - demand of Malaysian palm oil has tightened, Indian demand for importing palm oil has increased, and with the attention of funds, palm oil performs relatively strongly in the oil sector [7]. 3.3. Other Related Information - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month (based on the previous day's night - session closing price) [6]. - **Factors Affecting Different Varieties**: For soybean meal 2509, factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand; for soybean oil 2509, factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory; for palm 2509, factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Report's Core View - The short - term trend of soybean meal futures prices has turned to a volatile state under the influence of weakened support from US soybeans and domestic supply pressure [6]. - The short - term trend of palm oil futures prices is volatile and strong, and the sustainability needs to be monitored [9]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trends**: Intraday view is volatile and weak, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile and weak [6]. - **Core Logic**: Good weather in US soybean production areas has strengthened the expectation of a bumper harvest, causing US soybean futures prices to run weakly. The domestic soybean market has abundant supply. Under the background of high operating rates of oil mills, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has rebounded for 8 consecutive weeks at a low level, and the提货 volume remains high [6]. For Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trends**: Intraday view is volatile and strong, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile and strong [9]. - **Core Logic**: The palm oil market is concerned about whether this week's Malaysian palm report can fulfill the bullish expectation of inventory decline. The short - term supply and demand of Malaysian palm is tightening, and the international soybean - palm spread has turned in favor of palm oil exports. Driven by multiple positive expectations, market funds have actively entered the market, pushing palm oil futures prices to lead the rise in the oil and fat sector [9]. For Other Related Information - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month (based on the previous day's night - session closing price) [8]. - **Variety Strategy Factors**: For soybean meal 2509, factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operating rhythm, and stocking demand; for soybean oil 2509, factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory; for palm 2509, factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [8].

Group 1 - The report is the Baocheng Futures' morning report on beans and oils dated July 7, 2025 [1] Group 2 - The short - term is defined as within a week, and the medium - term is from two weeks to one month, based on the previous day's night - session closing price [7] Group 3 - For the soybean meal (M) 2509 contract, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "bullish", the intraday view is "oscillating bullish", and the reference view is "oscillating bullish". The core logic involves import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operating rhythm, and stocking demand. With the release of imported soybean arrival pressure, domestic soybean supply is abundant. Oil mill soybean meal inventory has risen for 8 consecutive weeks. Downstream's expectation of future supply tightening supports procurement demand, and the short - term futures price may be oscillating bullish, affected by external markets and domestic supply [6][7] - For the soybean oil (Y) 2509 contract, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "bullish", the intraday view is "oscillating bullish", and the reference view is "oscillating bullish". The core logic includes US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory. US soybean oil inventory decline and new tax bill boost demand, and the domestic market is in a balanced state between inventory pressure and cost support, with short - term prices likely to be oscillating bullish [7][8] - For the palm oil (P) 2509 contract, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "bullish", the intraday view is "oscillating bullish", and the reference view is "oscillating bullish". The core logic involves biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand. Malaysian palm oil production decline and strong exports may lead to inventory decrease, and domestic inventory has risen for 5 consecutive weeks, with prices following the international market and short - term volatility increasing [7][9]