Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the financial data growth reflects a stable and practical monetary policy, with significant support for the real economy [1][2][4] - As of the end of April, the total social financing scale reached 424 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, showing an increase compared to the end of March [2][3] - The balance of RMB loans was 265.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, indicating a strong credit support for the economy [1][2] Group 2 - The issuance of government bonds has accelerated, contributing significantly to the social financing scale, with net financing of 4.85 trillion yuan in the first four months, a year-on-year increase of 3.58 trillion yuan [2][3] - The M2 money supply reached 325.17 trillion yuan, growing by 8% year-on-year, supported by low base effects and changes in financial data [3][4] - The average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.2%, and for personal housing loans, it was about 3.1%, both lower than the previous year, indicating a favorable borrowing environment [4][5] Group 3 - The structure of credit has improved, with inclusive small and micro loans growing by 11.9% and medium to long-term loans for manufacturing increasing by 8.5%, both outpacing other loan categories [5] - The proportion of loans to the manufacturing sector has increased from 5.1% to 9.3% from the end of 2020 to the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a shift in credit allocation towards manufacturing and innovation [5] - The overall financial data suggests that the monetary policy measures have effectively boosted market confidence, supporting the recovery of effective demand in the real economy [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - pressure situation of implicit debt supervision remains unchanged, emphasizing the prevention of "risks from risk disposal". The audit report reveals over a hundred billion yuan of irregular use of special bonds and the persistence of new implicit debt since March 2023, highlighting the need for continuous improvement of debt management mechanisms [5][7][9]. - Guangxi will spare no effort to support Liuzhou in debt resolution, aiming to balance debt reduction and high - quality development [5][10]. Summary by Directory 1. News Review - **Irregular Use of Special Bonds and New Implicit Debt**: The audit report shows that irregularities such as illegal borrowing, false reporting of expenditures, and idle misappropriation of special bonds still exist, involving over a thousand billion yuan. New implicit debt has also emerged since March 2023, along with irregularities like irregular fund collection by urban investment companies and false debt resolution. This indicates the need to improve the regular supervision system for special bonds and address deep - seated institutional issues in debt management [5][7][9]. - **Guangxi's Support for Liuzhou's Debt Resolution**: On June 25, Guangxi held a meeting to support Liuzhou in debt resolution, emphasizing the balance between debt reduction and high - quality development. Resolving Liuzhou's debt is a top priority for the region [10]. - **Early Redemption of Bonds by Urban Investment Enterprises**: Twenty urban investment enterprises redeemed bond principal and interest in advance this week, involving 21 bonds with a total scale of 40.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.51 billion yuan from the previous value. Most of these enterprises are from the eastern region, and the majority of their credit ratings are AA [12]. 2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Local Government Bonds**: This week, the issuance scale and net financing of local government bonds increased, while the issuance interest rate decreased and the spread narrowed. As of now, the issuance progress of new special bonds this year is less than 40%, and the local debt replacement progress has reached 87%. A total of 60 local bonds were issued this week, with a scale of 261.753 billion yuan, and the net financing increased by 167.346 billion yuan to 124.334 billion yuan. The weighted average issuance interest rate dropped by 9.85BP to 1.72%, and the weighted average issuance spread narrowed by 3.37BP to 10.18BP [14]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The issuance scale of urban investment bonds increased this week, but the net financing turned negative. The issuance interest rate rose, and the spread widened. A total of 197 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 128.875 billion yuan, an increase of 1.79% from the previous value. The net financing decreased by 445.82 billion yuan to - 32.634 billion yuan. The average issuance interest rate was 2.25%, up 1.74BP from the previous value, and the issuance spread was 77.89BP, widening by 4.95BP [17]. 3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Funding Situation**: The central bank conducted 960.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the open market this week, with 858.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 79.9 billion yuan. Short - term funding rates mostly rose [24]. - **Urban Investment Rating Adjustment**: On June 18, 2025, Dagong Global downgraded the credit rating of Guizhou Guiyang Economic and Technological Development Zone Guihe Investment Development Co., Ltd. from AA to AA - and its bond rating from AA to AA - [24]. - **Credit Events and Regulatory Penalties**: No urban investment credit risk events occurred this week [24]. - **Local Government Bonds**: The trading volume of local government bonds decreased by 12.75% to 544.437 billion yuan, and the maturity yields generally declined, with an average decline of 4.78BP [24]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The trading volume of urban investment bonds increased by 15.88% to 378.924 billion yuan, and the maturity yields generally declined, with an average decline of 5.33BP. The spreads of 1 - year and 3 - year AA+ urban investment bonds widened, while that of 5 - year AA+ urban investment bonds narrowed [25]. - **Abnormal Trading of Urban Investment Bonds**: Under the broad - based criteria, 24 urban investment entities had 28 abnormal bond trades, with an increase in the number of entities, bonds, and trading times [25]. 4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises - Forty - seven urban investment enterprises announced changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, etc., as well as changes in controlling shareholders, actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, suspected disciplinary violations, changes in the use of raised funds, and external guarantees [28].

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 [Table_Main] 地方债务压力何时出清？财政还需加 码多少才能稳增长？ 报告要点 预计本轮债务压力将在 2027 年逐步减轻。届时地方债务付息率将与债务率出 现交叉，标志着偿债压力进入实质性缓解阶段。我们认为目前中国仍处于"去 杠杆与稳增长"并行的阶段，虽然非金融部门债务率趋于稳定，但受隐性债务 高企与地方财政收缩影响，整体付息压力仍然较大。若当前"低息借新还旧"政 策持续推进、严格控制新增债务，预计债务付息率将从 2023 年的 14% 降至 2027 年的 12.8%左右。我们认为该趋势主要基于三方面因素：一是融资利率 持续下行，推动整体利息成本下降；二是债务结构优化，低息合规债务逐步替 代高息非标融资；三是名义 GDP 增长带来的"被动稀释"效应。相较 2010– 2015 年的去杠杆周期，本轮调整在多重冲击下持续时间更长，但去杠杆方式 更加制度化和市场化，意味着债务化解将更为温和，并逐步转向信用重建，财 政与金融体系将迎来制度性修复窗口。 地方债务限额与收支缺口对表，发展增量所需资金受限。地方债务限额与收支 缺口"对表安排"，使专项债逐步演化为"缺口填补工具"，尤其 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the growth of social financing and the stability of monetary supply are crucial for supporting economic recovery, with a notable increase in government bond issuance driving this growth [1][2][8] - As of the end of May, the total social financing scale reached 426.16 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, with government bonds being the primary driver of this increase [2][4] - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of financial support measures, including interest rate cuts and structural monetary policy tools, which have begun to take effect and are expected to maintain liquidity at a reasonable level [1][6][8] Group 2 - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has been significant, with over 2 trillion yuan issued in the last quarter of the previous year and more than 1.6 trillion yuan this year, which has helped to replace bank loans and maintain loan growth around 8% [3][6] - The growth of fixed asset investment funding sources, including government bonds, has outpaced other sources, with a year-on-year increase of 16.7% [4][5] - The trend of bonds substituting loans is evident, with nearly 90% of social financing comprising bonds and loans, indicating a complementary relationship that supports economic stability [2][3] Group 3 - The growth of M1 and M2 money supply indicates a positive trend in liquidity, with M1 growing by 2.3% and M2 by 7.9% as of the end of May, reflecting the effectiveness of recent monetary policies [7][8] - The overall loan balance reached 266.32 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1%, and specific sectors like small and micro enterprises and manufacturing showing even higher growth rates [6][7] - The current economic environment, characterized by active fiscal policies and a resilient economic foundation, is expected to support stable growth in financial totals moving forward [8]

6月9日，据兰州新区发布，兰州新区2025年首批土地储备专项债券项目近日通过省自然资源厅和省财政厅初审，标志着新区在土 地资源盘活和城市建设融资方面取得重要进展。本次申报的专项债券规模达27.54亿元，期限5年，资金将专项用于收回收购闲置 用地及新增土地储备项目，进一步优化土地资源配置，助力新区高质量发展。 记者据企业预警通最新数据梳理发现，截至2025年6月10日，今年土储专项债新发规模已达1083.48亿元，涉及442个项目、24只专 项债。关于土储专项债资金用途占比，今年新发行专项债资金用途中，"土地储备"现占比达7.75%。相对而言目前该用途占比不 算高，下一阶段或还有一定提升空间。 | 数据来源:企业预警通 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 项目类别 | 项目数量 | 专项债只数 | 专项债规模(亿) | 规模占比(%) | 专项债作资本金金额(亿) | | I | 市政和产业园区基础设施 | 4149 | 253 | 4190. 63 | 29.98 | 171. 25 | | 2 | 土地值备 | 4 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the financial data for April shows a stable and solid growth, reflecting a moderately loose monetary policy aimed at supporting the real economy [1][6] - As of the end of April, the total social financing scale reached 424 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, supported by strong fiscal measures and a rapid issuance of bonds [2][4] - The M2 money supply stood at 325.17 trillion yuan, growing by 8.0% year-on-year, influenced by a low base effect from the previous year [2][3] Group 2 - The growth of RMB loans reached 10.06 trillion yuan in the first four months, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% as of the end of April, indicating a higher actual support for the economy when adjusting for local debt replacement effects [4][5] - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.2% in April, down about 4 basis points from the previous month and 50 basis points from the same period last year, indicating a downward trend in financing costs [5] - Recent financial policies introduced by the People's Bank of China and other regulatory bodies are expected to boost market confidence and support the recovery of effective demand in the real economy [6]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported a significant increase in broad money (M2) growth rate, reaching 8% year-on-year by the end of April, which is 1 percentage point higher than the previous month, reflecting effective counter-cyclical adjustments and financial stability measures [1] - In the first four months of the year, new RMB loans increased by 1.006 trillion yuan, with approximately 280 billion yuan added in April alone. The total social financing scale increased by 1.634 trillion yuan during the same period, with April's increment being 116 billion yuan, which is 122 billion yuan more than the previous year [1][2] - The issuance of government bonds has been robust, with net financing of 485 billion yuan in the first four months, which is 358 billion yuan more than the previous year. This is expected to continue supporting social financing growth [2][3] Group 2 - The shift of deposits to wealth management products has decreased compared to last year, with some funds returning to deposit accounts. This trend is influenced by the previous year's bond yield decline and the corresponding rise in wealth management product yields [2] - By the end of April, the RMB loan balance grew by 7.2% year-on-year, with new loans of approximately 280 billion yuan. The increase in loans to enterprises has been a significant factor, with corporate loans rising from 63% to 68% of total loans since 2021, indicating a shift in credit allocation towards the real economy [3] - The recent introduction of a package of financial policies by regulatory bodies is expected to boost market confidence and maintain stable growth in financial aggregates in the near term [3][4]

5月14日，中国人民银行(以下简称"央行")发布2025年4月份金融统计数据的报告显示，4月末，人民币 贷款余额265.7万亿元，同比增长7.2%；广义货币(M2)余额325.17万亿元，同比增长8%。同时公布的 2025年4月份社会融资规模存量统计数据报告显示，4月末，社会融资规模存量为424.0万亿元，同比增 长8.7%。 从今年前4个月的金融总量数据看，社会融资规模、M2、人民币贷款增速持续高于名义GDP增速，显示 出金融对实体经济的支持力度仍然较大。 信贷增速保持较高水平 业内专家认为，在去年较大力度的金融数据"挤水分"后，过去相当一部分虚增的、不规范的存贷款被压 缩，金融总量数据增长更稳更实。同时，今年以来，存款向理财分流的情况也明显减少，部分资金还从 理财回流到存款账户。4月份，存款减少约8700亿元，同比少减约3万亿元，对M2增速上拉影响约1个百 分点。还原去年基数的特殊因素影响，4月末M2增速仍保持上月相对平稳的增长水平。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬对《证券日报》记者表示，4月份信贷数据受到短期和中长期多重因素影 响。4月份为传统信贷小月，在一季度信贷投放"靠前发力"后，新增贷款规模环比出现明显 ...

报 告 正 文 关税政策阶段性扰动企业投融资。 4月社融同比多增额扩大，政府债仍是主要贡献，在债券收益率走低的背景 下，4月企业债融资同比也转为正增；而信贷再度走弱，同比由上月的多增转为少增，企业和居民部门表现均 不算强，企业贷款主要由票据贡献，居民短贷和中长贷当月均减少。 首先 ，地方债务置换对信贷的替代效应 仍存，不过4月特殊再融资债发行规模减少至2617亿元，化债对信贷的制约或边际减轻； 其次 ，有效融资需求 还未实质性转暖，且部分贷款需求或已在上月集中释放； 最后 ，关税政策不确定性或导致外贸企业信用扩张 放缓。货币供应量方面，去年同期在"手工补息"整顿的影响下，企业活期存款向理财转移，导致旧口径M1增 速跌入负区间，M2统计范围内的存款也有减少，增速显著下行。在低基数效应影响下，2025年4月M2增速反 弹1个百分点至8%，但两年年均增速微幅回落；M1增速小幅下行0.1个百分点，或主要反映了关税政策变化之 下，企业的投融资意愿不强，此外，4月地产销售走低或也制约了M1的回升。 社融存量增速续升，低基数下M2反弹。 在去年基数走低的背景下，4月份M2同比增速较上月回升1个百分点 至8%，4月财政性存款 ...

去年四季度，用于化债的特殊再融资专项债发行超2万亿元，今年前4个月又发行了近1.6万亿元。业内 专家称，据估算，对应置换的贷款约有2.1万亿元。还原后，4月末人民币贷款增速维持在8%以上。 地方债务置换不影响金融支持实体经济力度，而且利好经济长远发展。业内专家进一步分析，长远看， 地方债务置换有利于减轻地方化债压力，让其卸下包袱、轻装上阵，畅通资金链条。 央行5月14日发布的数据显示，4月末，社会融资规模存量同比增长8.7%，广义货币（M2）余额同比增 长8%，增速均较3月末时明显加快；人民币贷款余额同比增长7.2%，还原地方债务置换影响后增速超过 8%。 业内专家表示，金融总量数据增长既"稳"又"实"，体现了适度宽松的货币政策取向。4月是传统的信 贷"小月"，从前4个月的整体情况看，我国金融总量上行，融资价格下行，呵护宏观经济稳定运行。 展望未来，业内专家称，近期一揽子金融政策措施的推出，有效提振了市场信心，将对实体经济有效需 求的恢复起到积极作用。金融总量仍有望保持平稳增长，稳固经济持续回升向好基础。 核心数据一览 金融对实体经济支持力度仍较大 数据显示，4月末，人民币贷款余额265.7万亿元，同比增长7 ...