12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京召开。 会议指出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，加强财政 科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。 会议强调，要适当增加中央预算内投资规模，优化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理。 积极有序化解地方政府债务风险，督促各地主动化债，不得违规新增隐性债务。优化债务重组和置换办 法，多措并举化解地方政府融资平台经营性债务风险。 明年超长期特别国债规模预计跟今年持平或略有增长 NBD：这次中央经济工作会议提到，要保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量。国际上有一个 3%赤字率警戒线的说法，您认为明年财政赤字率可能在什么范围？ 施正文：赤字率提高是实施更加积极的财政政策的一项重要内容。根据去年赤字率及当前经济形势判 断，2026年的赤字率预计不会低于4%，可能会维持在4%左右或略有提升。 2025年的经济形势达到预期，仍在恢复中，明年扩内需依旧需要财政支出持续发力。赤字率的提高意味 着可以有更充足的财力，政府就可以加大财政支出强度。而且，经济环境面临挑战的时候，我们还需 要"放水养鱼"，所以可能还会推出一 ...

联合资信 公用评级二部 |何泰|杜晗|霍聪聪 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告－江西篇 江西省区位优越，自然资源和旅游资源丰富，形成了较为完善的陆、海、空综合交通运 输网络。2024 年，江西省经济总量居全国中游，人均 GDP 处全国中下游水平，一般公 共预算收入规模在全国排名处于中游水平，财政自给能力偏弱。受房地产市场低迷影响， 江西省政府性基金收入同比有所下降，上级补助收入对综合财力的贡献较大。2024 年 末，江西省整体债务负担处于全国中游水平。 从地市层面看，江西省下辖各地级市发展较不均衡，赣北地区经济发展水平总体领先， 以赣州为核心的赣南地区受益于政策支持，经济发展水平次之，赣西和赣东两地经济体 量相对较小，地区分化较为明显。江西省各地级市产业结构中第二产业和第三产业占比 较高，产业结构普遍呈现"三二一"的发展格局。2024 年，江西省各地级市一般公共预 算收入规模差异较大，南昌市一般公共预算收入远高于其余地级市，且财政自给率最高； 各地级市政府性基金收入整体较上年有所下降；各地级市获得的上级补助收入规模较大。 江西省各地级市政府债务余额均保持增长 ...

努力做大经济和收入"蛋糕"，财政运行的基础才能更坚实、更有可持续性。强化逆周期和跨周期调 节，实施更加积极的宏观政策，持续稳增长、稳就业、稳预期，努力扩大内需、做强国内大循环，促进 经济持续健康发展。经济向好、企业成长，财政收入就会有更多源头活水。从财税体制改革看，还需完 善地方税、直接税体系，规范税收优惠政策，保持合理的宏观税负水平，增加地方自主财力。 善于"过日子"，切好"蛋糕"，把每一分钱花出最大效益。"凡事预则立"，预算管理在增强财政可持 续性中扮演重要角色，要加强财政资源和预算统筹，深化零基预算改革，打破"基数"依赖，根据实际需 要、区分轻重缓急，科学合理安排预算。推进财政科学管理，不断提升财政治理效能。优化财政支出结 构，把资金用在民生保障、科技创新等刀刃上。全面实施预算绩效管理，将绩效管理理念、方法和要求 贯穿预算管理全过程，切实提升资金效益和政策效能。坚持尽力而为、量力而行原则，把保障和改善民 生建立在经济发展和财力可持续的基础之上。 有效防范化解风险，方能行稳致远。当前，防范化解地方政府债务风险的任务依然艰巨，有的地方 债务负担较重。要落实好一揽子化债政策，坚持在发展中化债、在化债中发展，持 ...

地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告－山西篇 联合资信 公用评级 | 王文燕 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 报告概要 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 2 ⚫ 山西省自然资源禀赋良好，产业结构以煤炭及相关产业为主。2024 年以来，国内煤炭价 格震荡回落，山西省 GDP 增速放缓，经济发展承压；一般公共预算收入小幅增长，规模 位于全国中游水平，财政自给能力尚可；受房地产市场低迷影响，政府性基金收入持续下 降；上级补助收入占当年地方综合财力比例持续升高；政府债务规模持续增长，整体债务 负担较轻。 ⚫ 山西省各地级市经济及财政实力存在分化，太原市产业结构相对成熟，经济财政实力处于 绝对领先地位；其他地市长期的资源依赖导致其经济及产业结构与煤炭高度挂钩，2024 年 以来，受煤炭等大宗商品价格波动、钢铁及建材行业需求不足等因素叠加影响，大部分地 市一般公共预算收入同比下降；各地市政府债务余额均呈扩张趋势，整体债务水平有所上 升。山西省细化完善全省化债方案，加快融资平台压降进度，加强金融风险防范，提出"双 降目标"，加强地方债务风险管控。 ⚫ 山西省发债城投企业数量较少，以地市级为主；太 ...

Core Insights - The issuance of local government bonds in China has surpassed 10 trillion yuan for the first time, marking a significant milestone in the history of local government financing [2][4] - The total local government debt has exceeded 50 trillion yuan, but remains within the set limits, indicating that overall debt risk is manageable [2][4] - The rapid growth of local government debt poses challenges to the long-term sustainability of local finances, necessitating caution [2][4] Summary by Sections Local Government Bond Issuance - As of December 2, the total issuance of local government bonds reached approximately 10.1 trillion yuan, a historic first [2] - The issuance has shown a consistent upward trend since the implementation of the new budget law in 2015, which granted provinces the authority to issue bonds [2][3] Historical Context - Prior to 2015, local government bond issuance was limited, with only 0.4 trillion yuan issued in 2014 [2] - The issuance surged to 3.8 trillion yuan in 2015 due to debt replacement plans, and continued to rise, reaching over 6 trillion yuan in 2020 and 7 trillion yuan in 2021 [3] Current Debt Levels and Management - By September 2025, the total local government debt was approximately 53.7 trillion yuan, well within the debt ceiling of 57.9 trillion yuan [4] - China's government debt ratio is significantly lower than that of major economies, with a projected ratio of 68.7% by the end of 2024 [4] Future Directions - The government plans to optimize the structure of debt issuance to ensure fiscal sustainability and economic health [5] - There is a call for better management of local government bond growth and enhanced performance management to improve the efficiency of fund usage [5]

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Directions - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and supporting the construction of a strong domestic market through increased tax, social security, and transfer payments to boost consumer spending [1][3] - It highlights the need for high-level technological self-reliance and innovation, focusing on strengthening investment in technology and supporting key core technology breakthroughs [1][4] - The article discusses the necessity of optimizing the tax structure and improving the relationship between central and local finances to enhance fiscal sustainability and support local governments [4][5] Group 2: Employment and Social Welfare - The article stresses the priority of employment, supporting enterprises in maintaining and expanding jobs, and addressing structural employment issues [3] - It calls for improvements in education quality and accessibility, as well as strengthening the social safety net for vulnerable populations [3] - The article mentions the importance of enhancing public health services and the capacity of grassroots medical services [3] Group 3: Debt Management - The article outlines the need to prevent and resolve local government debt risks, emphasizing the importance of sustainable fiscal development [4] - It suggests implementing a comprehensive debt management strategy, including the replacement of hidden debts and strict accountability for violations [4][5] - The article proposes optimizing debt replacement methods based on the nature of the projects and their expected returns [5]

地方政府与城投企业债务风险 研究报告－新疆篇 联合资信 公用评级三部 |魏兰兰|韩 军 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 报告摘要 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 2 新疆维吾尔自治区（以下简称"新疆"或"自治区"）区域战略地位重要，资源禀赋优势明显， 石油、天然气、煤炭、镍、铬和锂等矿产资源储量丰富，太阳能和风能资源丰富，形成了以 农业为基础、工业为主导、服务业占重要地位的现代化产业体系。同时，"三基地一通道""五 大战略定位""十大产业集群""对口援疆"及各类经济促进政策助力区域发展。2024 年新疆 经济增速继续位于全国前列。 新疆财政自给能力弱，为提高收支平衡能力，一方面依托自身丰富的资源储备，增加国有资 源（资产）有偿使用收入，并积极盘活存量土地资源，另一方面，积极争取上级补助收入， 稳定且规模较大的上级补助收入有力保障了自治区经济社会发展。近两年，新疆获得的上级 补助收入均在 4000 亿元以上，规模位居全国前十，2024 年新疆获得的上级补助收入占综合 财力比重约 61.00%。2024 年末，新疆地方综合财力对政府债务余额的覆盖能力位居全国中 上游水平。 从各地州 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of addressing local government debt risks during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting that while the overall debt risk in Anhui Province is manageable, there are significant underlying issues that need attention [3][5]. Group 1: Debt Risk Analysis - Anhui's overall government debt risk is controllable, with a total debt balance of 1.85271 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, nearly double the 960 billion yuan from 2020, but still within the central government's approved limits [6][5]. - The average annual growth rate of total debt in Anhui over the past five years has significantly outpaced the growth rates of general public budget and government fund revenues, leading to increasing debt pressure [6][7]. - The province's land transfer income has decreased by approximately 44% from its peak in 2021, contributing to a substantial reduction in government financial capacity [7][6]. Group 2: Structural Issues - The debt structure in Anhui is deemed unreasonable, with over half of the debt attributed to platform companies and more than 70% of legal debt being special bonds [7][6]. - Platform companies face significant risks due to high levels of hidden debt and their deep ties to the real estate market, which could lead to systemic risks [7][6]. - The proportion of special debt in total local government debt has risen, with special debt accounting for about 68% of total local government debt as of September this year [7][8]. Group 3: Regional Disparities - There is a notable regional disparity in debt risks within Anhui, particularly in the northern regions, which have a higher proportion of municipalities classified as high-risk [9][6]. - The article indicates that while financial support for debt resolution is outlined at the national level, local implementation remains cautious, leading to a tightening of financing channels for platform companies [9][6]. Group 4: Recommendations for Risk Mitigation - The article suggests establishing an incentive mechanism for local governments to actively repay debts and integrating various financial resources to support debt rollover [11][12]. - Monitoring and controlling new debt issuance is emphasized to prevent the simultaneous accumulation of new and existing debts [12][11]. - The article advocates for the market-oriented reform of platform companies, aiming to eliminate their government financing functions by the end of 2026 [13][12]. Group 5: Long-term Mechanism Establishment - The article calls for stricter control over government investment behaviors and the implementation of fiscal risk assessments before major policy changes [14][12]. - It proposes increasing the weight of debt assessments and linking them to GDP growth and fixed asset investment metrics [14][12]. - Enhanced regulation of platform companies is recommended, including setting annual debt control targets and limits on new financing costs [14][12].

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the role of proactive fiscal policy in promoting economic growth, structural adjustment, and risk prevention while ensuring fiscal sustainability [1][3]. Fiscal Policy and Economic Development - Fiscal policy will focus on expanding domestic demand, supporting high-level technological self-reliance, and improving people's livelihoods during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [2][4]. - The government aims to enhance fiscal sustainability while maintaining an active fiscal stance, balancing development and security, efficiency and equity, and short-term and long-term goals [1][3]. Major Tasks and Strategic Goals - Key tasks include building a modern industrial system, accelerating technological self-reliance, optimizing productivity layout, and promoting green transformation [3][4]. - Significant public investment is required for these tasks, which often have strong externalities and long return cycles, necessitating government leadership [3]. Technological Modernization and Support - The plan highlights the importance of fiscal support for technological modernization, focusing on basic research and key core technology breakthroughs [4]. - The strategy includes using various fiscal tools to optimize traditional industries and foster emerging sectors [4][5]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The emphasis is on shifting fiscal support from supply-side policies to demand-side initiatives, enhancing social welfare for households [4][5]. - The goal is to create a dynamic balance where new demand leads to new supply and vice versa, supporting a new development pattern [5]. Fiscal Sustainability and Taxation - The plan calls for enhancing fiscal sustainability through structural adjustments in tax policies, including improving local tax systems and maintaining reasonable macro tax burdens [7][8]. - Experts suggest optimizing existing tax reduction policies for precision and efficiency, particularly for technology innovation and small enterprises [7]. Local Government Debt Management - The government aims to prevent and mitigate local government debt risks by implementing a comprehensive debt management strategy and ensuring no new hidden debts are created [8]. - A unified long-term regulatory system for local government debt is to be established, with strict accountability for violations [8].

Report Summary - The investment rating of the industry is not mentioned in the report [4] - The report focuses on the economic, fiscal, and debt situations of Sichuan Province and its prefecture - level cities, as well as the conditions of local urban investment enterprises. It points out that Sichuan has obvious location and resource advantages, with its economy growing steadily and the government actively addressing debt issues. However, there are still challenges such as uneven regional development and debt pressure [4][5][6] Group 1: Sichuan Province's Economic and Fiscal Strength Economic Development - Sichuan has significant location and resource advantages, with well - developed land and air transportation. Its economic aggregate ranks high in China, but the urbanization level is relatively low, and the per - capita GDP is in the middle - lower range. The tertiary industry is the main driving force for economic growth [7][10][11] - The construction of the Chengdu - Chongqing Economic Circle is advancing, with major projects having a total investment of over 12 trillion yuan. In 2025, the planned investment is about 3.7 trillion yuan, and as of August 2025, the investment completion rate is 75.29% [12][14] - Sichuan has introduced a series of policies in 2025 to boost consumption, promote industrial transformation and upgrading, and improve economic recovery [14][15] Fiscal Strength and Debt - Sichuan's general public budget revenue ranks 7th in China, but the fiscal self - sufficiency rate is low. The government - funded revenue has decreased due to the real estate market, while the superior subsidy revenue ranks first in the country, supporting the comprehensive fiscal strength. The comprehensive fiscal strength ranks 4th in China [17][18][21] - By the end of 2024, Sichuan's government debt balance was 2.40289 trillion yuan, with a debt ratio of 143.87% and a debt - to - GDP ratio of 37.14%. The government has been actively reducing debt through measures such as obtaining replacement bonds, introducing incentive mechanisms, and strengthening debt management since 2024 [24][26][27] Group 2: Economic and Fiscal Strength of Sichuan's Prefecture - level Cities Economic Development - The economic development of Sichuan's prefecture - level cities is uneven. The Chengdu Plain Economic Zone and the Southern Sichuan Economic Zone have better industrial bases. Chengdu has far stronger economic strength than other cities, and Panzhihua has the highest per - capita GDP in the province [28][29][33] Fiscal Revenue - In 2024, most prefecture - level cities' general public budget revenues increased, with growth rates concentrated between 2% - 10%. The government - funded revenues of most cities decreased, and the superior subsidy revenue contributed significantly to the comprehensive fiscal strength [37][38][39] Debt - The government debt balances of all prefecture - level cities have increased, and the debt ratios have generally risen. Zigong, Suining, Bazhong, and Neijiang have relatively high debt ratios. All cities are following Sichuan's overall debt - reduction strategy [48][49] Group 3: Sichuan's Urban Investment Enterprises Overview - As of October 22, 2025, there are 218 urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds in Sichuan. Most of them are at the district - county level, and the credit ratings are mainly AA. Chengdu has the largest number of such enterprises [52] Bond Issuance - In 2024, the number and scale of bond issuances by Sichuan's urban investment enterprises decreased slightly. From 2024 to September 2025, most cities' urban investment enterprises had a net outflow of bond financing, and the outstanding bond balances decreased [54][55][57] Debt - paying Ability - The total debt of most urban investment enterprises has increased, with the debt structure mainly composed of bank financing and bond financing. The overall debt - to - capital ratio has slightly increased, and the cash - to - short - term debt ratio has decreased. Suining's urban investment enterprises face significant short - term debt - paying pressure [60][61][65] Support from Fiscal Revenue - Except for Liangshan and Ya'an, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to comprehensive fiscal revenue in other cities exceeds 200%, with Chengdu exceeding 500% [73]