新华社北京12月20日电 题：守牢安全底线，稳妥化解风险——九论学习贯彻中央经济 工作会议精神 "十五五"时期我国发展环境面临深刻复杂变化，我国发展处于战略机遇和风险挑战并 存、不确定难预料因素增多的时期，重点领域还存在风险隐患。做好明年经济工作，要遵循 党的二十届四中全会提出的"坚持统筹发展和安全"重要原则，切实提高防范化解风险能 力，标本兼治、综合治理，稳妥做好重点领域风险化解，牢牢守住不发生系统性风险的底 线。 当前，我国城镇化正从快速发展期转向稳定发展期，城市发展正从大规模增量扩张阶段 转向存量提质增效为主的阶段，房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化，房地产发展必须适应新 阶段新变化。房地产产业链长、关联度高，必须处理好促发展和防风险的关系。要着力稳定 房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房 等。要深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推动"好房子"建设。要坚持防范风险、强化监管和 创新发展模式相协调，加快构建房地产发展新模式，加快推动房地产业转型升级，建立风险 防控长效机制，扎实推动房地产高质量发展。 做好明年经济工作，要积极有序化解地方政府债务风险。按照科学分类、精准置换 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the real estate market is undergoing a critical phase of inventory digestion, price confidence rebuilding, and demand transformation, with a shift from urbanization-driven growth to housing renewal and quality upgrades as the main demand drivers [21][22] - In November, the new housing price index decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, while the number of cities where prices stabilized increased significantly to 11, up by 5 from the previous month [1][9] - The overall sales area of new homes in the first eleven months fell by 7.8% year-on-year, with the decline in November showing a slight narrowing to 17%, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [5][23] Group 2 - The industrial production showed stable growth, with the added value of the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors growing by 7.7% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively, outpacing the overall industrial growth [2] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43.898 billion yuan in November, growing by 1.3% year-on-year, although the growth rate slowed by 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - The fixed asset investment in the first eleven months decreased by 15.9% year-on-year, with a notable decline in November, reflecting a trend of aligning investment with sales in the real estate sector [16] Group 3 - The new housing construction area in the first eleven months was 5.3 million square meters, down 20.5% year-on-year, indicating a significant reduction in new projects, which helps alleviate inventory pressure [13] - The completion area of housing reached 3.9 million square meters in the first eleven months, down 18% year-on-year, but showing signs of cyclical recovery in November, reflecting ongoing efforts to ensure housing delivery [15] - The investment-sales gap is narrowing, with real estate development investment in the first eleven months exceeding new housing sales by 4.6%, indicating a shift towards a more rational development model [16][21]

Group 1: Credit Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on structural opportunities in the short to medium-term credit products, particularly in the 2-3 year and 4-5 year categories, where yields are currently favorable [1][26][27] - For 2-3 year products, yields are primarily in the range of 1.84%-2.14% with spreads between 17-42 basis points, indicating a stable demand for short-term assets due to regulatory adjustments and cautious investment strategies [1][26] - The 4-5 year products show yields between 2.0%-2.5% and spreads of 22-60 basis points, suggesting a recovery in the attractiveness of these assets despite recent market volatility [1][27] Group 2: Market Overview - The credit bond market has seen a general decline in yields, with a mixed performance in credit spreads, influenced by a stable funding environment and recent economic data [6][10] - The central economic work conference has indicated potential for further monetary easing, which may affect market sentiment and trading strategies moving forward [6][21] - The report notes that the overall sentiment in the bond market remains weak, with caution advised for institutions with less stable funding [6][21] Group 3: Key Policies and Events - The report highlights significant corporate actions, such as China Metallurgical Group's sale of assets to enhance liquidity and focus on core operations, which may positively impact its valuation [3][28] - The Yunnan provincial government has introduced measures to regulate public-private partnership projects, aiming to prevent hidden local government debts, which could influence future financing conditions [3][29] - The central economic work conference has reiterated the need to address risks associated with local government financing platforms, suggesting a more proactive approach to debt restructuring and management [4][30]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the need for a stable yet progressive economic policy for the upcoming year, focusing on enhancing the effectiveness of fiscal measures and addressing local government debt risks [2]. Group 1: Economic Policy Direction - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure levels while improving policy precision and effectiveness [2]. - There is a commitment to utilize various government bond funds effectively, including the issuance of ultra-long special bonds to support key construction and new policy implementations [2]. Group 2: Investment and Consumption Support - The Ministry plans to increase central budget investment and optimize the management of local government special bonds to stimulate investment recovery [2]. - There will be a strong emphasis on supporting consumption through personal consumption loans and service industry loans, alongside special actions to boost consumption [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Management and Discipline - The meeting underscored the need for improved fiscal management, optimizing expenditure structures, and regulating tax incentives and subsidies [2]. - There is a focus on addressing local fiscal difficulties and ensuring the protection of basic public services, while also managing local government debt risks and preventing the creation of new hidden debts [2].

会议指出，做好明年财政工作，要以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入贯彻党的二十大和二十 届历次全会精神，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，着力推动高质量发展，坚持稳中求进 工作总基调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，更好统筹发展和安全，继续实施更加积极的财政政策， 支持持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建 设，持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的 合理增长，促进保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五五"良好开局。 会议指出，按照中央经济工作会议部署安排，明年政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和 增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。财政部门要准确把握明年经济工 作的总体要求和政策取向，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，提高政策精准性和有效性。用好用 足各类政府债券资金，发行超长期特别国债，持续支持"两重"建设、"两新"工作。支持优化"两新"政策实施， 用好个人消费贷款和服务业经营主体贷款"双贴息"政策，大力支持实施提振消费专项行 ...

Group 1 - Societe Generale has closed its short position on 10-year U.S. Treasuries after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, realizing profits from a trade initiated at a yield of 4.09% and closed at 4.15% [1] - Fitch Ratings expects the U.S. leveraged loan default rate to decline by 2026, predicting it will range between 4.5% and 5.0%, while high-yield bond defaults are expected to be between 2.5% and 3.0% [1] - Scotiabank believes the U.S. dollar bear market has just begun, forecasting a continued weakening of the dollar until 2026 and 2027 due to divergent central bank policies [1] Group 2 - Nomura forecasts that the USD/JPY exchange rate will weaken in 2026, with target prices of 155.00 in Q1, 150.00 in Q2, 145.00 in Q3, and 140.00 in Q4, influenced by domestic political pressure and narrowing interest rate differentials [2] - Jefferies sees strong appeal in the Japanese stock market before 2026, expecting a 13% increase in the Topix index driven by corporate reforms and political leadership [3] - ING suggests that while the euro is nearing a two-month high against the dollar, betting on European Central Bank rate hikes may be premature, with potential for the EUR/USD to rise to 1.18 by year-end [3] Group 3 - CICC indicates that the Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes quality and efficiency in China's economic policies, with a focus on addressing consumer, investment, and real estate concerns [5] - Dongfang Jincheng anticipates continued relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in 2026, aiming to stabilize the real estate market through various policy measures [5] - CITIC Securities expects new measures to address operational debt risks of financing platforms, indicating a broader approach to managing local government debt [6]

【工商银行：积极支持构建房地产发展新模式 助力有序化解地方政府债务风险】智通财经12月12日 电，中国工商银行党委传达学习中央经济工作会议精神。会议强调，要扎实做好"五篇大文章"，积极融 入强大国内市场，加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。围绕服务高水平安全，积极 支持构建房地产发展新模式，助力有序化解地方政府债务风险。持续巩固深化全面风险管理体系，确保 资产质量基本稳定、各类风险总体可控。 转自：智通财经 ...

2025.12. 12 本文字数：2297，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 化解地方债务风险有了新部署。 近日中央经济工作会议在北京举行，会议部署2026年经济工作。其中，就明年积极稳妥化解重点领 域风险时要求，积极有序化解地方政府债务风险，督促各地主动化债，不得违规新增隐性债务。优化 债务重组和置换办法，多措并举化解地方政府融资平台经营性债务风险。 自去年中央推出五年总额10万亿元一揽子化解地方政府隐性债务政策后，大量政府隐性债务转化为 显性债务，融资成本明显下降，偿债周期拉长，地方债务风险大幅缓释。而随着化债政策落地，隐性 债务举借主体地方政府融资平台加快剥离政府融资职能，两年半时间里超过七成融资平台公司退 出"融资平台公司名单"。 在这一背景之下，中央对地方化债的部署有何变化？ 长期关注地方债的财达证券常务副总经理胡恒松告诉第一财经，中央延续了此前"化解存量隐性债 务，遏制新增隐性债务"表述，凸显了中央对地方政府隐性债务管控的持续重视，同时首次提及化解 地方融资平台经营性债务风险。目前地方政府融资平台公司经营性债务规模较大，存量规模甚至超过 隐性债务，从宏观风险防控角度来看，经营性债务是 ...

【导读】2026年经济工作定调，专家解读中央经济工作会议 中国基金报记者 张玲 任子青 据新华社报道，中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行，总结2025年经济工作，分 析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作。 受访专家表示，会议对今年以及整个"十四五"时期我国经济表现和政策效果给予肯定，提出 明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进。在宏观政策、扩大内需、新质生产力等多重驱动下，明年我 国经济将实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，实现"十五五"良好开局。 我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展 会议指出，今年是很不平凡的一年。我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，现代化产业体系建 设持续推进，改革开放迈出新步伐，重点领域风险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力。 中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，会议首先对今年以及整个"十四五"时期我国经济表现和政 策效果予以了肯定。尽管面临多重压力，但我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，"十四五"即 将圆满收官，第二个百年奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局。 会议还指出，必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战。明明认为，这既体现了直面外部冲击与挑战 的"实事求是"的态度，又展现出"以我为主"的大国自信。在"十五五"时期，我 ...

Group 1: Economic Policy Direction - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized a policy direction of stability and progress, focusing on improving quality and efficiency while enhancing macroeconomic governance effectiveness [1] - The conference proposed to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt scale, while optimizing fiscal expenditure structure [1][2] - Monetary policy will remain moderately accommodative, with a focus on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [1][5] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Insights - Experts predict that the fiscal deficit rate will not be lower than 4% in 2026, with an emphasis on addressing local government issues and managing local debt risks [2][3] - The fiscal deficit is expected to remain at 4.0%, with the total deficit scale increasing from 5.66 trillion yuan to approximately 5.9 trillion yuan [4] - The need for increased new debt issuance is highlighted, with suggestions for the total new debt scale to reach around 15 trillion yuan [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy Insights - The monetary policy is expected to focus on price stability, with potential policy rate cuts of 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points and reserve requirement ratio cuts of about 1 percentage point [4][5] - Structural monetary policies will aim to support key sectors such as technology innovation, manufacturing transformation, and small and micro enterprises [5] Group 4: Local Government Financial Challenges - The conference stressed the importance of addressing local fiscal difficulties, particularly ensuring the "three guarantees" (wages, operations, and livelihood) are met [6][7] - There is a call for improving the efficiency of transfer payments from the central government to local governments, which exceed 10 trillion yuan [6] - The need for a comprehensive approach to resolve local government debt issues, including debt restructuring and enhancing local tax systems, was emphasized [7][8]