【导读】2026年经济工作定调，专家解读中央经济工作会议 中国基金报记者 张玲 任子青 据新华社报道，中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行，总结2025年经济工作，分 析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作。 受访专家表示，会议对今年以及整个"十四五"时期我国经济表现和政策效果给予肯定，提出 明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进。在宏观政策、扩大内需、新质生产力等多重驱动下，明年我 国经济将实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，实现"十五五"良好开局。 我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展 会议指出，今年是很不平凡的一年。我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，现代化产业体系建 设持续推进，改革开放迈出新步伐，重点领域风险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力。 中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，会议首先对今年以及整个"十四五"时期我国经济表现和政 策效果予以了肯定。尽管面临多重压力，但我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，"十四五"即 将圆满收官，第二个百年奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局。 会议还指出，必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战。明明认为，这既体现了直面外部冲击与挑战 的"实事求是"的态度，又展现出"以我为主"的大国自信。在"十五五"时期，我 ...

2026年财政货币政策力度如何？ 粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒认为，更加积极要求财政支出强度有保障，赤字率预计不低于4%，新增 债务规模将继续提高，建议财政扩张程度要足以抵消房地产下行的收入缺口、化债占用资源和城投债净 偿还的收缩效应。 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求 进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理 效能。 在财政政策方面，会议提出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支 出总量，加强财政科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。重视解决地方财政困 难，兜牢基层"三保"底线。严肃财经纪律，坚持党政机关过紧日子。 在货币政策方面，会议提出要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为 货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机 制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。保持人民币汇率在合理均衡 水平上的基本稳定。 多位专家预计2026年财政赤字率不会低于202 ...

中央经济工作会议指出，积极有序化解地方政府债务风险，督促各地主动化债，不得违规新增隐性债 务。优化债务重组和置换办法，多措并举化解地方政府融资平台经营性债务风险。对此，中信证券首席 经济学家明明认为，在延续隐债"遏增化存"基调下，对融资平台经营性债务的重视程度显著提升。明明 表示，"优化债务重组和置换办法，多措并举化解地方政府融资平台经营性债务风险"或意味着后续对于 政府债务压力的缓释范围扩大。除常规性隐性债务置换外，2026年或可期待针对融资平台非标债务等经 营性债务风险的新举措出台，以更好化解地方政府债务风险。（上证报） ...

12月10日，国内期市能化板块大面积飘绿。其中，玻璃期货盘面表现偏弱，主力合约大幅收跌2.13%， 报964.00元/吨。 宏观面，句瑞达期货（002961）介绍，财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安在人民日报刊文指出，切实防范化 解地方政府债务风险，推动财政可持续发展。坚持在发展中化债、在化债中发展，持续用力防范化解地 方政府债务风险。 供应方面，新湖期货指出，前期产线集中冷修兑现，因此产量维持下滑趋势，上周产量环比减少1.88万 吨；当前浮法玻璃日熔已降至15.50万吨，近日有一条500吨产线复产点火（汽车玻璃）。 需求方面，建信期货分析称，终端房地产市场尚未显现企稳信号，核心的竣工数据表现偏弱，直接制约 了浮法玻璃的下游需求。下游深加工企业订单天数环比小幅增长，但同比来看仍处于较低水平。 东吴期货表示，玻璃继续走弱，最近没有冷修的落地，同时产销走弱，高库存对盘面的压制依然明显， 预计近月合约延续弱势。05合约短期受移仓换月和新增点火的因素影响，也偏弱，但近月持续下跌，加 大后期冷修预期，1-5或继续反套。 ...

防范化解重点领域风险方面，提到积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，深化地方融资平台改革转型，一体 推进地方中小金融机构风险处置和转型发展，加快房地产市场存量风险出清。 12月8日，河南省发布《中共河南省委关于制定河南省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建 议》。 其中提出，推动房地产高质量发展。加快构建房地产发展新模式，完善商品房开发、融资、销售等基础 制度。优化保障性住房供给，满足城镇工薪群体和各类困难家庭基本住房需求。因城施策增加改善性住 房供给。建设安全舒适绿色智慧的"好房子"，实施房屋品质提升工程和物业服务质量提升行动。建立房 屋全生命周期安全管理制度。 一体推进地方中小金融机构风险处置和转型发展，加快房地产市场存量风险出清。 ...

据半月谈报道，今年以来，中央多次提出"积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务"。在中 央大力支持下，地方政府债务风险得到有效化解。记者调研发现，很多地方政府新官认旧账、解决问题 态度好，但仍有一些地方存在拖欠账款历史遗留问题，甚至在财政紧平衡状态下，出现"可起诉但别上 访"等避债心态和"认旧账但难理旧账"等拖债现象。 当然，也必须客观看待地方政府面临的现实偿债困境。如有的拖欠账款形成历史久远、成因复杂。同时 在土地财政转型、经济增速放缓的宏观背景下，部分地区的确面临真实的财力缺口。对此，要解决"可 起诉但别上访"的困境，还是要多管齐下，既改善偿债的客观条件，也要从现实出发提高化债、偿债的 积极性。 如短期而言，需着力于优化现有财政资源的配置优先级。这方面，其实已有一些探索。据第一财经报 道，为完成全年隐性债务化解和清偿拖欠企业账款目标，云南将76%新增专项债资金投向清偿拖欠企业 账款及化债。 这表明，即便在既定预算框架内，财政的支出结构依然具有一定的腾挪空间。因此，各地应将清偿企业 欠款，特别是中小企业欠款，置于更优先的支付序列。 就长远而言，要有效提高偿债能力，还得是通过大力发展经济来扩充财源，并加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China conducted a 783 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, while a total of 3,373 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,590 billion yuan from the open market [1] Summary by Category Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China executed a reverse repurchase operation of 783 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, unchanged from prior operations [1] - The net withdrawal from the open market was 2,590 billion yuan due to the maturity of 3,373 billion yuan in reverse repos [1] Interbank Rates - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term instruments decreased, with the overnight Shibor falling by 0.50 basis points to 1.3160%, the 7-day Shibor down by 2.70 basis points to 1.4120%, and the 14-day Shibor dropping by 7.90 basis points to 1.4690% [1][2] - The weighted average rates for various repo instruments also declined, with DR001 and R001 rates falling to 1.3127% and 1.3646%, respectively, while transaction volumes increased significantly [4] Market Conditions - The funding environment appeared relaxed, with ample supply observed in the early trading session, leading to stable transaction rates throughout the day [8] - By the end of the trading day, the overnight repo rates ranged from 1.33% to 1.36%, indicating a continued loose funding situation [8] Issuance and Trading of Certificates - On November 3, 47 interbank certificates were issued, with a total issuance volume of 686.8 billion yuan [8] - The trading sentiment for primary certificates was generally subdued, with yields on secondary certificates showing an upward trend across various maturities [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Financial Regulatory Administration emphasizes the need to balance financial development and security to ensure a new development pattern, addressing the unprecedented challenges facing global economic and financial stability [2]. Group 1: Financial Risk Management - The Financial Regulatory Administration will prioritize risk prevention, aiming to maintain a bottom line against systemic financial risks [2]. - There will be a focus on consolidating risk disposal achievements and promoting the merger and restructuring of small and medium-sized financial institutions in a steady and orderly manner [2]. - Efforts will be made to enhance the disposal of non-performing assets and capital replenishment, ensuring a robust financial system [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Efficiency and Framework - The administration plans to accelerate the reform of financial laws and regulations, establishing a clear and effective tiered regulatory framework [2]. - There will be an emphasis on leveraging technology to optimize resource allocation and support the five major regulatory areas [2]. - Strengthening collaboration between central and local authorities, as well as inter-departmental coordination, is essential to enhance regulatory effectiveness [2]. Group 3: Global Financial Cooperation - The administration aims to strengthen multilateral and bilateral coordination to improve cross-border risk monitoring, early warning, and response mechanisms [2]. - Enhancing international regulatory cooperation and crisis management efficiency is crucial for addressing major risks and challenges [2]. - The ultimate goal is to work collectively to maintain global financial stability [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Financial Regulatory Administration emphasizes its commitment to risk prevention and management, aiming to maintain systemic financial stability while adapting to changes in the financial landscape [1] Group 1: Risk Management - The administration will firmly uphold its primary responsibility of risk prevention, ensuring that systemic financial risks do not occur [1] - There will be a focus on strengthening risk protection measures and consolidating risk disposal achievements [1] - The approach includes a careful and orderly advancement of mergers and restructuring among small and medium-sized financial institutions, alongside efforts to improve quality while reducing quantity [1] Group 2: Asset Management - Increased efforts will be made in the disposal of non-performing assets and capital replenishment, enhancing the resources and methods available for asset management [1] - The goal is to ensure the stable operation of the financial system through effective asset management strategies [1] Group 3: Financing and Debt Management - The administration aims to accelerate the establishment of a financing system that aligns with the new model of real estate development, assisting in the resolution of local government debt risks [1] - Continuous improvement in financial regulatory efficiency is a priority, with a focus on revising and optimizing financial laws and regulations [1] Group 4: Regulatory Framework - The administration will enhance the clarity and effectiveness of regulatory policies, implementing a tiered and categorized regulatory approach [1] - There will be a strong emphasis on leveraging technology to optimize resource allocation, providing robust support for the "five major regulations" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 0-4 local government bond ETF (159816) is experiencing a tight balance between long and short positions, with a recent price of 114.28 yuan and a net subscription of 10 million units during the trading session. The ETF's latest scale reached 1.806 billion yuan as of the previous trading day [1] Group 1: Market Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 900 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation with a one-year term on October 27, resulting in a net injection of 200 billion yuan due to 700 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month. This marks the eighth consecutive month of increased MLF operations [1] - China Galaxy Securities noted that the recent meeting emphasized debt resolution, continuing the stance of "actively and steadily resolving local government debt risks" since the fourth quarter of last year. There is a possibility of further reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions within the year, influenced by the ongoing MLF operations and the Federal Reserve's rate cuts [1] Group 2: ETF Characteristics - The 0-4 local government bond ETF closely tracks the CSI 0-4 year local government bond index, which consists of non-directional local government bonds with a remaining maturity of four years or less, listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges or in the interbank market. The index is calculated using market capitalization weighting to reflect the overall performance of local government bonds within the specified maturity [1]