Core Insights - The article highlights the significant impact of low-priced food delivery orders, with 75% of new orders this year coming from the price range below 15 yuan [1] - It notes that nearly half of the incremental orders generated through subsidies after the delivery battle in May are from beverages, leading to a surge in sales for many tea and coffee shops [1] - The CEO of Meituan's core local business, Wang Puzhong, indicated that the average spending per customer in the dining industry has approached levels seen in 2015, suggesting a decline in consumer spending [1] Summary by Sections - **Delivery Market Trends** - 75% of new delivery orders this year are from the low-price segment of under 15 yuan [1] - A significant portion of the growth in orders is attributed to beverages, particularly after subsidy-driven promotions [1] - **Consumer Spending Patterns** - The average customer spending in the dining sector has reverted to levels similar to 2015, indicating a potential stagnation in growth [1] - The overall average spending per order has dropped to a low point, forcing businesses to rely on lower prices to maintain order volumes [1]

Group 1 - The core local business CEO of Meituan, Wang Puzhong, stated that the average dining-in customer spending in the restaurant industry has approached levels seen in 2015 [1] - According to the conference data, the overall average customer spending has dropped to a phase low, forcing merchants to rely on low prices to maintain orders [1] Group 2 - At the 8th Restaurant Industry Conference, it was reported that 75% of the new takeaway orders this year came from the low-price range of under 15 yuan [3] - Following the takeaway battle in May, nearly half of the incremental orders generated through subsidies were for beverages, leading to a surge in sales for many milk tea and coffee shops [3]

Core Insights - Overall demand for consumer goods remained relatively weak in July and August, with the seasoning sector affected by the slow recovery in dining demand. However, September showed signs of improvement as dining demand rebounded, leading to a more stable consumption and travel environment during the holiday period [1][2] Group 1: Holiday Performance - During the recent holiday period, key retail and dining enterprises saw a 3.3% year-on-year increase in sales, with an average daily flow of 304 million people, up 6.2% year-on-year, slightly better than previous expectations [2] - The performance of various sectors during the holiday showed differentiation, with snacks leading in overall vitality, followed by beverages, dining chains (seasoning, beer, frozen foods), dairy products, and finally, liquor [2][3] Group 2: Sector Analysis - **Liquor**: Sales during the holiday met expectations, particularly for high-end liquor and banquet scenarios. Post-holiday feedback indicated a 20% year-on-year decline in overall liquor sales, consistent with pre-holiday expectations [3] - **Seasoning**: After a weak performance in July and August, the seasoning sector saw improved sales in September due to the gradual recovery in dining. The holiday period showed a year-on-year increase in sales, driven by the recovery in dining demand [3] - **Dairy Products**: The demand for liquid milk remained weak, with a low single-digit decline expected for major brands. Sales during the holiday were under pressure, with inventory levels remaining relatively healthy [3] - **Beverages**: The beverage sector is entering a slow season, but leading brands continue to perform well. Brands like Nongfu Spring and sugar-free tea maintained good growth, while packaged water continued to gain market share [4] - **Beer**: The beer sector experienced weak downstream demand, particularly in on-premise and dining channels. Companies are increasing investments in instant retail channels to capture new opportunities [4] - **Snacks**: The snack sector continues to show high vitality, benefiting from holiday gifting scenarios. Traditional retail channels saw stable growth in September, with good customer traffic during the holiday [4] - **Frozen Foods**: The frozen food sector saw slight improvements in sales during the holiday, although the overall improvement was limited. Demand for certain products like hot pot ingredients showed some recovery [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the advertising industry [7]. Core Insights - In July 2025, the total outdoor advertising expenditure was 22.467 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 4% and a month-on-month decrease of 5%. Excluding scope and list price growth, the net value decreased by 10% year-on-year [2][4]. - Outdoor traditional media continues to gain traction, with July advertising expenditure reaching 7.106 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and a month-on-month increase of 4.0%. The net value, excluding scope and list price changes, increased by 3.6% year-on-year [10]. - The website, beverage, and entertainment sectors emerged as the main contributors to outdoor video media expenditure in July, driven by the "takeaway war" and summer effects [10]. Summary by Sections Outdoor Advertising Performance - The total outdoor advertising expenditure in July 2025 was 22.467 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year and 5% month-on-month. The net value, excluding scope and list price growth, decreased by 10% year-on-year [2][4]. - Outdoor video media advertising expenditure totaled 15.361 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7% [2]. Channel Analysis - The expenditure on building LCD media decreased by 12% year-on-year and 17% month-on-month due to changes in media collection cycles. In contrast, electronic screen media saw a year-on-year increase of 14% and a month-on-month increase of 18% [10]. - High-speed rail video media advertising expenditure increased by 6% month-on-month due to heightened travel demand during the summer [10]. Industry Contributions - The top five industries for outdoor video media expenditure in July were websites (24%), beverages (23%), entertainment (8%), services (8%), and alcohol (5%). The website sector's share increased significantly from 3% in the previous year [10]. - The beverage industry's expenditure share rose to 23% due to high summer temperatures, while the entertainment and service sectors also saw increases in their advertising shares [10]. Outlook for Building Media - Building media maintains a high level of attractiveness due to its frequent exposure and precise targeting of high-consumption demographics. The report anticipates a recovery in advertising expenditure as the domestic economy continues to show signs of cyclical recovery [10].

Core Insights - Taobao officially announced the Double 11 sales event, starting pre-sales on October 15 and running until November 14, marking a significant battle in the e-commerce and takeaway sectors [1] - The competition is intensifying as Douyin e-commerce began its Double 11 promotions on September 8, a month earlier than last year, extending the sales period to 57 days [3] - Taobao's market share in e-commerce is crucial, contributing nearly 50% of Alibaba's revenue and 113% of its net profit for the fiscal year 2025 [2] E-commerce Competition - The competition landscape shows that in 2024, Taobao, Pinduoduo, JD.com, and Douyin's GMV are projected at 8 trillion, 5.2 trillion, 4.5 trillion, and 3.34 trillion respectively, with Taobao holding a 40% market share [2] - Taobao's Double 11 is not just a promotional event but a critical opportunity to demonstrate its market dominance and brand-building capabilities [2][3] - Douyin is focusing on increasing its share in the shelf e-commerce segment, aiming for a GMV target of 4.2 trillion, a 20% increase from 2024 [3] Strategic Implications - The e-commerce sector is seen as the profit center for Alibaba, while the takeaway business is viewed as a future growth area, indicating a strategic resource allocation between the two [4] - Limited traffic resources mean that prioritizing e-commerce could detract from the takeaway business, impacting overall profitability [4] - The overlap in teams between Taobao's flash sales and the Double 11 event presents both challenges and opportunities for operational efficiency [5] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The term "flash sales" has become synonymous with Taobao, indicating a shift in consumer perception and brand association [7] - Taobao's aggressive marketing and subsidies have successfully re-engaged consumers, with many returning to the platform for purchases [8] - The introduction of the 88VIP membership program enhances price competitiveness, allowing Taobao to maintain an edge over competitors [9] Future Outlook - The transition of Taobao flash sales from an offensive to a defensive position indicates the need for increased subsidies to maintain market share [11] - The upcoming Spring Festival in 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for the takeaway industry, with strategies in place to capitalize on consumer habits [12] - Alibaba's significant cash reserves position it favorably against competitors, allowing for sustained investment in market share growth [13]

本报记者 郭冀川 韩昱 9月24日，国家市场监督管理总局（以下简称"市场监管总局"）起草的《外卖平台服务管理基本要求（征求意见稿）》 （以下简称《基本要求》），正式面向社会公开征求意见。这一举措的出台，恰与此前外卖行业激烈的市场竞争形成鲜明呼 应。 今年盛夏，电商头部企业掀起的"外卖三国杀"席卷市场，各类补贴活动层出不穷，从大额满减到低价秒杀，消费者一度沉 浸在"几块钱吃一顿饭"的消费狂欢中。这场硝烟弥漫的商业大战，不仅是互联网行业流量见顶后，巨头们在存量市场展开的激 烈厮杀，更标志着发展多年的外卖赛道，正迎来一场关乎商业模式与行业生态的深刻"翻新"。 然而，随着竞争的持续升温，激烈的商业鏖战也让行业逐渐清醒，过度内卷毫无价值，无序的低价竞争最终只会导致企业 利润承压、服务质量下滑的局面。如今，这一共识正在行业内逐步形成。 中国消费经济学会副理事长、北京工商大学商业经济研究所所长洪涛在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，在外卖行业， 单一的低价竞争已经进入死胡同。 可以说，上半年是外卖大战竞争最为激烈的时刻，从企业营收情况来看，以新茶饮集团为代表的头部阵营企业业绩提升十 分明显。多家新茶饮上市公司公布的2025年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the iPhone 17 series has catalyzed a rapid expansion in the instant retail market, exemplified by the swift delivery times and significant growth in order volumes [2][3] Group 1: Instant Retail Market Growth - The instant retail market has seen a surge, with daily orders in the takeaway market increasing from 100 million to 200 million, peaking near 300 million, and monthly active users surpassing 551 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6% [2] - The rapid delivery of products, such as the iPhone 17, is becoming a new norm, indicating a shift in consumer expectations and retail strategies [3] Group 2: Regulatory Environment and Competition - Regulatory authorities have expressed a cautious stance towards the ongoing "takeaway war," emphasizing the need for fair competition without compromising worker rights or market order [2][4] - The competition among platforms has led to significant financial investments, with hundreds of billions spent in a short period, raising concerns about the sustainability of such aggressive strategies [3] Group 3: Impact on Employment and Small Businesses - The increase in order volume has resulted in a tripling of active riders on platforms like Taobao Flash Purchase, creating over a million new jobs [3] - However, the rapid growth of instant retail poses risks to small businesses, as traditional establishments may struggle to adapt to the fast-paced market changes [3][4] Group 4: Positive Changes and Future Outlook - Platforms are beginning to support small businesses through digital transformation initiatives, with significant sales increases reported for smaller merchants [5] - The future of instant retail may lead to a more inclusive ecosystem where platforms, merchants, riders, and consumers can all benefit, promoting a balanced approach to growth [5]

Core Viewpoint - Jiahe Foods (605300.SZ), known as the "first stock of powdered oil," reported a mixed performance in its 2025 semi-annual report, with revenue of 1.185 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.43%, while net profit attributable to shareholders plummeted by 82.1% to 12.43 million yuan due to rising raw material costs and increased sales expenses related to coffee business expansion and C-end channel development [2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company experienced a significant decline in net profit, with the core subsidiary Nantong Jiazhiwei's net profit dropping approximately 75.4% to 7.8995 million yuan, attributed to rising costs of core raw materials like palm kernel oil and coconut oil [5]. - Operating cash flow turned negative, with a net cash flow from operating activities dropping 142.3% to -31.02 million yuan, and prepayments surged 88.58% to 82.8488 million yuan [6]. Group 2: Market Trends and Challenges - The demand for powdered oil is declining as consumer health awareness increases, leading some new tea brands to stop using powdered oil, which directly impacts Jiahe Foods' sales [3]. - Despite the growth in orders from tea drink customers during the recent delivery wars, the company noted that these customers primarily ordered lower-priced products, resulting in increased revenue without corresponding profit [4]. Group 3: Coffee Business Development - Jiahe Foods is actively expanding its coffee business, achieving revenue of 278 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.58%, with a significant growth of 66.8% to 190 million yuan in the first half of the year [7]. - The company is focusing on both B-end and C-end channels, with e-commerce revenue reaching 47.6657 million yuan, up 114.81% year-on-year [7][8]. Group 4: Cost and Profitability Issues - The company's marketing expenses increased significantly, with sales expenses for 2024 and the first half of the year rising 75.14% and 28.16% respectively, driven by higher costs associated with online platform services [8]. - The overall gross margin decreased by 5.46 percentage points to 12.39% in the first half of 2025, influenced by a higher proportion of low-margin products in the product mix [9].

Group 1 - The article discusses the competitive landscape between Luckin Coffee and Starbucks in China, questioning whether they will be evenly matched or if one will dominate the other [1] - It highlights the impact of the delivery battle on various brands, suggesting that the surge in demand may challenge Starbucks' ability to sustain its market position in China [1] - A survey was conducted to gain insights into the situation, indicating a need for deeper analysis of the competitive dynamics between these two companies [1] Group 2 - The article raises concerns about Starbucks' future in the Chinese market amidst increasing competition from local brands like Luckin Coffee [1] - It emphasizes the significance of the delivery service in shaping consumer preferences and brand performance in the coffee industry [1] - The competitive strategies employed by both companies are likely to influence their market share and profitability moving forward [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [9]. Core Insights - The company benefits from a high-growth industry, achieving steady revenue growth with a total revenue of 1.818 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a 10% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 203 million yuan, up 21% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company has successfully expanded its store network, with a total of 9,436 stores as of June 30, 2025, an increase of 999 stores from the beginning of the year, and a 12% increase year-on-year [8]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from industry growth, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 4.76, 5.63, and 6.48 yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 26, 22, and 19 times [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the gross margin increased by 0.2 percentage points to 31.43%, while the net profit margin rose by 1 percentage point to 11.16% [7]. - The company reported a decrease in sales expense ratio by 2 percentage points to 10.33% due to reduced employee compensation [7]. Business Expansion - The company has seen significant growth in franchise sales, with revenue from franchise sales increasing by 10% to 1.471 billion yuan, driven by network expansion and GMV growth [8]. - New product launches have been successful, with the "Dark Night Rose" series selling over 2.1 million cups in its first week and the "Daily Fiber+" fruit and vegetable tea selling over 3 million cups in its first week [8]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to maintain strong performance with projected revenues of 3.925 billion yuan in 2025, 4.623 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.288 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 19.51%, 17.77%, and 14.39% respectively [12]. - The net profit is forecasted to reach 500.84 million yuan in 2025, 592.07 million yuan in 2026, and 681.70 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 52.26%, 18.22%, and 15.14% respectively [12].