周三公布的数据显示，美国11月私营企业就业岗创下近两年半来最大降幅，主要源于小企业的岗位流 失。这也是四个月内第三次私营部门出现岗位流失的情况，表明招聘活动普遍放缓。如果趋势不发生及 时扭转，可能会推动失业率上升，并对经济造成不利影响。对于五天后的美联储会议而言，降息的悬念 可能就此终结。 就业市场降温 美国自动数据处理公司（ADP）当天发布报告称，上月企业减少了3.2万个工作岗位，这是2023年3月以 来的最大降幅。上一次招聘市场如此疲软还是在疫情期间。 分部门看，当月小企业减少了12万个就业岗位，经济学家认为这是进口关税推高企业成本所致。中型企 业就业岗位增加5.1万个，大型企业则增加3.9万个。 美国劳工统计局将于12月16日发布备受关注的11月就业报告。该报告原定于12月5日发布，因美国此前 的政府停摆而延期，报告将包含10 月的非农就业数据。但10月的失业率将永远无从知晓，由于这场史 上最长时间的政府停摆，用于核算失业率的家庭调查数据未能完成收集。美国9月失业率攀升至 4.4%， 创下四年新高。 最新的ADP报告证实，随着年末临近，全面的招聘冻结仍在持续。ADP首席经济学家理查森（Nera Rich ...

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% and will end balance sheet reduction on December 1[1] - Powell's hawkish tone dampened market expectations for a December rate cut, emphasizing that it is "far from a done deal" and highlighting internal divisions within the Fed regarding the December decision[1][8] - The end of balance sheet reduction aims to alleviate liquidity pressure and shift from quantity control to structural adjustments, helping to stabilize the Treasury holdings[9] Economic Outlook - Economic activity is showing resilience, particularly in consumer spending and data center investments, despite a weak real estate sector[3] - Employment market risks are increasing, with signs of a gradual cooling in job demand and a decline in labor force participation[5] - Inflation risks are perceived to be decreasing, with current inflation at 2.8% and potential increases from tariffs expected to be one-time adjustments[5] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices showed mixed movements, with changes of 0.00%, 0.55%, and -0.16% respectively[9] - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 12 basis points to 3.59%, while the 10-year yield increased by 9 basis points to 4.08%[9] - The current CAPE ratio for the S&P 500 is at 41.18, compared to 44.19 before the 2000 Nasdaq bubble burst, indicating potential paths for the market[9] Investment Strategy - Short-term volatility in risk assets is expected, but the medium-term outlook for U.S. equities remains positive, supported by AI investments[2][9] - Two potential scenarios for the U.S. stock market: a 10-20% short-term correction leading to more Fed easing, or accelerated bubble formation transitioning to a bear market by mid-next year[2][9] - Caution is advised regarding the potential negative impact on domestic equities if December rate cut expectations continue to cool[2][9]

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Fed's model indicates that the U.S. unemployment rate for October is approximately 4.3%, consistent with August's official reading, suggesting a cooling labor market without signs of severe deterioration [1] Group 1: Unemployment Rate Insights - The Chicago Fed previously estimated the unrounded unemployment rate for September at 4.34%, compared to 4.35% in August [1] - Due to the absence of official unemployment data for September, the model relies on the previous month's real-time estimate to project October's figures [1] - The Fed warns that this method may accumulate errors if the government shutdown persists, but expects limited impact in the next one to three months [1] Group 2: Labor Market Trends - The current estimates align with a slight upward trend in unemployment claims in some states, indicating a noticeable cooling in the U.S. job market without entering a recessionary decline [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in its upcoming meeting, as a precaution against economic slowdown and data gaps, while also preemptively addressing potential upward pressure on the unemployment rate [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with recruitment activities slowing down and employment growth momentum weakening, which may indicate risks of economic slowdown [3] - The unemployment rate remains low, but the softening labor market is becoming a core factor in monetary policy decisions, with analysts noting increasing employment risks [3] - The Federal Reserve's policy-making space is narrowing as it balances inflation and employment concerns [3] Group 2 - Market expectations for a rate cut in October are nearly fully priced in, with investors believing there is a nearly 100% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4] - There is internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate paths, with most officials expecting two more cuts this year, while some prefer to maintain current rates [4] - This divergence reflects differing judgments on economic outlooks, adding uncertainty to future policy directions [4] Group 3 - Delays in key economic data releases due to government shutdowns create challenges for the Federal Reserve, leading to "information asymmetry" [5] - The lack of complete data limits policy foundations, and while the Fed is attempting to use private sector data, it still regards official statistics as the "gold standard" [5] - The Fed faces a dilemma between continuing easing to stimulate employment and the risk of inflation rebound, or maintaining caution that could suppress economic growth [5] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve may pause balance sheet reduction in the coming months to maintain liquidity in short-term funding markets, indicating heightened concern for financial system stability [6] - The current decision-making environment is complex due to labor market slowdown, delayed data releases, and persistent inflation, making a one-size-fits-all policy approach difficult [6] - The anticipated rate cut this month may serve as a continuation of "preventive easing," with future policy direction dependent on economic data performance and overall resilience [6]

Core Viewpoint - The statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate a likely interest rate cut of 25 basis points later this month, reflecting a cautious approach to economic conditions and labor market trends [3][4][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Jerome Powell highlighted that the economic outlook remains largely unchanged, suggesting a continuation of the interest rate cut cycle [3]. - Powell expressed concerns about slowing job growth, indicating that fewer job openings could lead to an increase in the unemployment rate [3][5]. - The market has almost fully priced in a rate cut in October, with expectations nearing 100% [3]. Group 2: Labor Market Insights - Boston Fed President Collins emphasized the need for a modest rate cut of 25 basis points to support the labor market without risking inflation [4]. - Current monthly job growth of around 40,000 is deemed sufficient to maintain the unemployment rate, a significant decrease from the pre-pandemic requirement of 80,000 [5]. - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, attributed to either reduced demand from businesses or slower immigration, which the Fed has yet to fully understand [5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Risks - The Fed faces a dilemma: supporting a cooling labor market with rate cuts while ensuring inflation does not rise above the target [5]. - There is a divergence among Fed officials regarding the number of rate cuts needed this year, with some advocating for only one cut while others suggest two [5]. - The unemployment rate's potential increase poses a significant risk to the economy and markets, which could have deeper implications than a single rate cut [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's leadership, particularly Williams, supports further interest rate cuts this year to address potential risks of a sharp slowdown in the labor market [1][4]. Group 1: Labor Market Assessment - Williams highlighted a gradual cooling trend in the labor market over the past year, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate and a decline in job vacancies and turnover rates [2]. - He noted that the latest indicators for September show a continued moderate cooling in the overall labor market without signs of accelerated deterioration [2]. - The reasons for the slowdown in job growth are complex, involving both reduced demand for new employees and a decline in available labor supply, primarily due to decreased immigration [2]. Group 2: Inflation Outlook - Williams indicated that tariff impacts on import prices have been less severe than previously anticipated, estimating that tariffs have raised inflation by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points [3]. - He observed that core inflation is gradually approaching the 2% target, with improvements in housing costs being particularly notable [3]. - There are no signs of second-round effects from tariffs on inflation, and stable inflation expectations alongside normal supply chain indicators are present [3]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Stance - Despite low unemployment and stable consumption, Williams maintains that monetary policy remains moderately tight, reflecting economic performance relative to maximum employment and price stability goals [4]. - He supports further interest rate cuts this year, contingent on economic data developments, with expectations of inflation rising slightly to around 3% and a gradual increase in the unemployment rate [4]. Group 4: Commitment to Independence - Williams defended the independence of the Federal Reserve, emphasizing its importance in achieving economic goals and the responsibility of its staff to maintain this independence [5][6]. - He reiterated that decisions made by the Federal Reserve are based on data analysis rather than political considerations [6].

Core Insights - The U.S. federal government is currently in a shutdown, leading to delays in the release of important economic data, including the employment figures scheduled for October 3 [1] - The Federal Reserve may have to rely on less comprehensive indicators such as ADP private employment and initial jobless claims, increasing uncertainty in policy outlook [1] - The lack of data transparency could exacerbate short-term market volatility, making it difficult for investors to establish confident positions [1] Economic Indicators - The market generally anticipates an increase of approximately 50,000 in non-farm payrolls, although seasonal factors may present an upside risk [1] - Overall employment growth for the year is expected to remain below 100,000, indicating a cooling labor market [1] Market Sentiment - Given the prevailing uncertainties, market conditions are becoming increasingly difficult to assess, prompting some investors to reduce risk exposure [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is showing clear signs of cooling, with initial jobless claims rising by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, and significantly exceeding market expectations of 235,000 [2] - The total number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits remains at 1.94 million, indicating increased difficulty for unemployed individuals to find new jobs [2] - The August non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, with a three-month average of 116,000, marking the lowest since the pandemic recovery began in 2020 [2] Group 2 - Major companies in the manufacturing and information services sectors, such as Boeing, General Motors, and Intel, have announced layoffs, while Tesla has reportedly paused hiring on certain production lines [3] - The NFIB employment plans index has been in negative territory for six consecutive months, reflecting employers' lack of confidence in demand prospects [3] - Economic uncertainty stemming from tax and tariff policies, along with the upcoming presidential election, is causing companies to be more cautious in their capital spending and hiring decisions [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's internal stance is shifting, with officials discussing the need for preemptive action if the job market unexpectedly weakens [4] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with over 70% probability of a cumulative 100 basis points cut by the end of the year [4] - Despite the concerning job data, some analysts caution against overreacting to single-week figures, noting that the four-week average for initial claims remains below recession thresholds [4] Group 4 - The upcoming Federal Reserve decision on September 18 is being closely watched, as a rate cut would mark a shift in the current tightening cycle and provide support for the struggling labor market [5] - The ability to reverse the hiring downturn will depend on companies' confidence in future demand and the resolution of uncertainties in fiscal and trade policies [5]

Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. surged to 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years, indicating a cooling labor market amid a sharp slowdown in hiring activities [1][2][7] - This figure exceeded economists' expectations, which had predicted a median of 235,000 claims, highlighting growing concerns about the health of the job market [2][6] - The total number of individuals continuing to receive unemployment benefits remained unchanged at 1.94 million, suggesting persistent unemployment issues [4] Group 2 - The recent employment report showed that only 22,000 jobs were added in August, continuing a trend of significant slowdown in job growth [6][9] - The increase in jobless claims, particularly in Texas, has intensified market worries regarding employment conditions, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision to resume interest rate cuts [7][8] - The Federal Reserve is expected to shift its focus from inflation risks to supporting employment and economic growth, given the dual signs of slowing job growth and potential layoffs [8]

Group 1: Core Insights - The release of the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book on September 4 indicated a strong signal of policy shift, with a 96.6% probability of a rate cut in September, marking a critical turning point in the monetary policy cycle [1][2][4] - The Beige Book highlighted a significant easing of inflation pressures, with mentions of inflation at a four-year low and 10 out of 12 districts reporting "moderate or slight" price increases, suggesting that inflation is now within a controllable range [2][3] - The labor market shows subtle changes, with employment levels remaining stable but potential downward risks emerging, such as a drop in job vacancies to 7.181 million, the lowest in 10 months, indicating a cooling labor market [3][4] Group 2: Market Reactions - Financial markets quickly reacted to the Fed's signals, with a divergence in stock performance; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.05%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 1.02%, reflecting different interpretations of the rate cut's impact [4][5] - The bond market has already priced in significant easing expectations, with a 96.6% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September and a 51.6% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut in October [4][5] - The currency market showed a mild but clear trend, with the USD/CNY exchange rate rising by 0.0196% to 7.1429, indicating that the dollar has not depreciated significantly despite the Fed's shift to easing [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Fed's emphasis on flexibility and data dependency in its policy approach suggests a shift from predetermined paths to a more responsive strategy based on economic conditions [7][9] - The upcoming FOMC meeting on September 16-17 is expected to be a critical juncture, with potential for a 25 basis point cut, but the pace of future cuts may be constrained by factors such as the possibility of inflation rebounding post-tariff reductions [8][9] - The initiation of this rate cut cycle may signify a broader adjustment in the Fed's monetary policy framework, focusing on preemptive actions in response to emerging risks rather than waiting for clear recession signals [8][9]