Core Points - President Trump's unprecedented threat to dismiss a sitting Federal Reserve governor has sparked significant public outcry and raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - Nearly 600 economists, including two Nobel laureates, have signed an open letter urging the White House to cease actions that undermine the Federal Reserve's independence [1][10] - The ongoing debate centers around the potential for interest rate cuts, with market expectations for a rate cut exceeding 90% ahead of the Federal Reserve's September 18 meeting [3] Economic Indicators - The core PCE price index in July rose by 2.6% year-over-year, indicating that inflation pressures have not intensified, despite ongoing concerns from retailers about the impact of tariff policies [5] - The job market has shown signs of significant cooling, with only 78,000 new jobs added in July, far below the level needed to maintain a healthy job market [7] - The number of Federal Reserve officials supporting a rate cut has increased from two to at least five, with key figures expressing more dovish views [7] Political Implications - Trump's push for a substantial rate cut, aiming for a reduction of 300 basis points to around 1%, is seen as an attempt to mitigate the inflationary effects of his tariff policies and shift economic responsibility to the Federal Reserve [6][9] - The potential dismissal of Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, nominated by President Biden, could allow Trump to gain greater control over the Federal Reserve's decision-making [9] - The backlash against Trump's actions includes strong statements from economists and international officials warning that undermining the Federal Reserve's independence could lead to higher long-term interest rates and inflation [10]

Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased slightly, indicating that companies are delaying layoffs but hiring is slowing down [1] - As of the week ending August 23, initial jobless claims fell by over 5,000 to 229,000, slightly below the market expectation of 230,000 [1] - The continuing claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending August 16 stood at 1.954 million, lower than the expected 1.966 million and the previous value of 1.972 million, suggesting that finding new jobs is becoming more difficult for job seekers [1] Group 2 - Overall, the U.S. labor market is characterized by "few layoffs and slowing hiring," with companies maintaining existing positions but being more cautious about new hires [1] - The four-week moving average for jobless claims rose to 228,500, indicating a gradual cooling trend in the labor market [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell noted that the risks of a downturn in employment are increasing, suggesting a potential interest rate cut in September [1]

Group 1 - The CDC has laid off approximately 600 employees, affecting the entire organization [1] - The layoffs come amid criticism from the CDC employee union regarding the chaotic process and the recent shooting incident at the Atlanta headquarters, which has severely impacted the agency's normal operations [3] - According to Mark Zandi, chief economic analyst at Moody's, over half of U.S. industries have begun layoffs, indicating a potential economic recession [3][4] Group 2 - Zandi noted that in July, over 53% of industries were experiencing layoffs, with only the healthcare sector showing significant job growth [4] - A report from JPMorgan highlighted that private sector hiring has decreased to an average of 52,000 over the past three months, excluding healthcare and education, signaling a substantial decline in labor demand [4]

Group 1 - The unemployment rate in the UK remained stable at 4.7% as of June, but the number of employed individuals decreased by 26,000 from May to June, indicating a cooling job market in the second quarter [1] - Companies are facing multiple pressures, including increased labor costs due to a new payroll tax implemented in April, uncertain trade prospects, and cautious consumer spending, which collectively suppress hiring intentions and heighten concerns about the job market [1]

Group 1 - The recent dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) director, Erica McEntyre, by President Trump has raised concerns about the independence of federal statistical agencies and the politicization of employment data [1][3] - The U.S. Department of Labor reported a rise in the unemployment rate in July, with only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below expectations, indicating a cooling labor market [3] - The downward revision of job numbers for May and June by a total of 258,000 positions marks a historical record for non-pandemic periods, reflecting the adverse effects of new tariff policies and strict immigration restrictions on the U.S. economy [3][4] Group 2 - Critics, including Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren, have condemned the dismissal of McEntyre, arguing it undermines efforts to provide accurate employment data and harms the credibility of the BLS [3][4] - Former BLS director William Beach described the firing as baseless and warned that it sets a dangerous precedent that could damage the agency's statistical mission [4] - Economists from conservative think tanks have expressed concerns that the politicization of the BLS and official government data could lead to significant economic harm [4]

Core Viewpoint - The UK central bank is likely to lower interest rates in response to a cooling job market and slowing wage growth [1] Group 1: Employment Market - Average wage growth in the UK has slowed to 5% for the three months ending in May, down from 5.3% in the previous period [1] - The unemployment rate has risen to its highest level since 2021, indicating cracks in the UK employment market [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - Joe Nellis from MHA Economic Advisors suggests that with easing inflation pressures, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is expected to vote for a rate cut in their next meeting on August 7 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with expectations for June's non-farm payrolls to increase by 110,000, down from 139,000 in May, and an unemployment rate expected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% [1][2] - Economists are divided on whether the unemployment rate will rise, with most leading indicators suggesting an increase, as the number of continuing unemployment claims has risen to nearly 2 million, the highest level since November 2021 [2][3] - The private sector unexpectedly cut 33,000 jobs in June, marking the first monthly job loss since March 2023, indicating a cooling job market [2][4] Group 2 - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.4% in May, and if this trend continues, it may keep the unemployment rate stable at 4.2% for June [3][4] - Economists have noted that the estimates for June's non-farm payrolls have the narrowest range since 2018, reflecting a consensus that job growth will slow [4][5] - The leisure and hospitality sector showed strong hiring in May, but this trend may reverse in June due to a slowdown in consumer spending on travel-related services [4][5] Group 3 - The potential impact of trade policies and immigration changes may influence the unemployment rate, with some economists suggesting that reduced labor force expansion could help keep the unemployment rate lower [2][3] - Market reactions to the upcoming employment report are anticipated, with expectations that a disappointing report could lead to a decline in stock prices and an increase in bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][8] - Gold prices are also being closely monitored, with expectations that a weak employment report could support gold prices, while a strong report may lead to a decline [6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The price of copper remains firm while the US dollar is under pressure [1] Summary According to Related Contents Copper Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 80,540 with a daily decline of 0.12%, and the night - session closing price was 80,900 with a night - session increase of 0.45%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 10,010 with a daily increase of 0.67% [1] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 101,958, a decrease of 11,491 compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 223,122, a decrease of 861. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 16,830, a decrease of 5,645, and the open interest was 285,000, an increase of 1,136 [1] - The futures inventory of Shanghai Copper was 25,097, an increase of 324, and that of LME Copper was 90,625, a decrease of 625. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Copper was 36.33%, an increase of 1.29% [1] - The LME copper premium was 116.3, a decrease of 65.39 compared to the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 73,900, an increase of 600. The spot - to - near - month futures spread was 120, a decrease of 80 [1] Macro and Industry News - Macro: The US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000, the first monthly decline in more than three years. UBS and Citigroup warned that the cooling of the job market may accelerate interest rate cuts. Trump said that the US and Vietnam reached a trade agreement, with the US imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and 40% on transshipped goods, and Vietnam "fully opening the market" to the US [1] - Micro: Western Mining's Yulong Copper Mine Phase III project was approved, and the copper production scale will increase to 30 million tons per year. The negotiation result of TC/RC between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters in 2025 was set at 0.0 dollars per thousand tons and 0.0 cents per pound, far exceeding market expectations. More than 33,000 metric tons of copper concentrate have been shipped from the closed Cobre Panama copper mine. Chile's copper production in May was 486,574 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.9% and a year - on - year increase of 9.4% [1][3] Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The zinc market is expected to operate within a range [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,230 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day. The closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,713.5 dollars/ton, down 1.00% [1]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 128,020 lots, a decrease of 50,663 lots. The trading volume of LME zinc was 12,773 lots, an increase of 685 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 129,763 lots, a decrease of 4,670 lots. The open interest of LME zinc was 209,218 lots, an increase of 837 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 105 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton. The LME CASH - 3M discount was -12.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 9.5 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE zinc futures inventory was 6,624 tons, a decrease of 200 tons. The LME zinc inventory was 117,475 tons, an increase of 2,575 tons [1]. 3.2 News - The US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000, the first monthly decline in more than three years. UBS and Citigroup warned that the cooling of the job market may accelerate interest rate cuts [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The zinc trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2].

Core Viewpoint - The employment market is showing signs of cooling, which is not a cause for concern according to Powell [1] Group 1 - Powell indicates that the current trends in the employment market suggest a reduction in job growth [1] - The cooling of the job market is viewed as a natural adjustment rather than a negative development [1] - There is an emphasis on the importance of monitoring these trends for future economic implications [1]