自特朗普去年1月就任以来，美元指数的累计跌幅接近10%，美元霸权逐渐展现出一副摇摇欲坠的态势。 当地时间27日，特朗普的一番表态，加速了美元下跌的势头，当时他表示"可以像悠悠球一样让美元涨涨跌跌"。28日，在大跌情绪影响下，美国 财长贝森特不得不出面"找补"，坚称美国政府坚持"强美元"立场。 ▲当地时间2026年1月28日，纽约证券交易所，一家电视台正在播放美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议后决定维持利率不变的消息 图据视觉中国 此外，美联储29日召开了2026年第一场议息会议。尽管美联储主席鲍威尔正在面临刑事调查，但他顶住压力坚持不降息，也为美元在当天的回涨奠定了基 础。不过在美联储议息投票中，原本属于强硬"鹰派"的美联储理事沃勒突然"倒戈"，投票支持降息。分析认为，这一反常举动背后的原因是正在竞争主席职 位的沃勒"太想进步了"，选择积极靠拢特朗普秉持的降息立场…… 特朗普言论致美元大跌，财长紧急救火 在白宫的权力结构中，总统与财长似乎正在上演一场关于美元汇率的"红白脸"戏码。 ▲当地时间2026年1月27日，美国爱荷华州厄班代尔，美国总统特朗普在一家餐厅发表讲话，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特在一旁聆听 ...

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,827, up 2.58% for the day and 8.57% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.53%, with a year-to-date increase of 6.96% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index saw a modest increase of 0.27%, with a year-to-date rise of 4.60% [1] - The US markets showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.02% and the S&P 500 down 0.01% [1] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Financial Index increased by 2.62%, while the Hang Seng Real Estate Index rose by 3.03%, reflecting strong performance in these sectors [2] - The Chinese stock market saw gains in materials, energy, and telecommunications, while consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare lagged [3] Company Insights - New Oriental (EDU US) reported a 15% year-on-year revenue growth to $1.19 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 3% [5] - The company’s non-GAAP operating profit surged by 207% to $89.13 million, driven by improved operational efficiency and utilization in its education business [5] - New Oriental raised its revenue guidance for FY26E to a range of $5.29 billion to $5.49 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of 8%-12% [5] Economic Indicators - The USD/CNY exchange rate fluctuated around 6.94, indicating stability in the currency market [3] - The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with indications of a hawkish stance in future meetings, suggesting economic activity is expanding steadily [3][4]

一、表态分歧引波动，美元指数先抑后扬 近期外汇市场的剧烈波动，核心导火索源于美国高层的言论分歧。当地时间1月27日，特朗普在艾奥瓦 州出席经济政策活动时，针对美元贬值问题明确表态"不担心，美元表现很好，希望回归自身应有的水 平"，甚至暗示自身具备操控汇率的能力，称"可以让它像悠悠球一样涨跌"。这一表态打破了市场对美 国政府维护美元稳定的预期，引发大规模美元抛售潮，美元指数当日下跌0.84%，收于96.219.刷新2022 年2月以来的四年新低，自特朗普去年1月就任以来，该指数累计跌幅已逼近10%。 就在市场看空情绪蔓延之际，美国财长贝森特迅速发声维稳，强调美国政府仍坚定推行"强美元政策"， 同时明确否认"正准备联手日本干预汇市以提振日元"的市场传闻。这种与总统言论的鲜明反差，让市场 预期陷入分化，部分短线资金开始获利回吐，为美元指数反弹提供了支撑。而美联储当日召开的议息会 议，则成为反弹的关键推手——美联储如期宣布暂停降息，删除了此前声明中"就业下行风险上升"的措 辞，将经济扩张速度表述从"适度"上调为"稳健"，主席鲍威尔在讲话中表态偏鹰派，强调通胀上行与就 业下行风险均已减弱，暗示政策利率已处于合理区间，进 ...

当地时间1月29日，日韩股市开盘表现分化。日经225指数开盘跌0.11%，报53301.26点；韩国综合指数 涨1.40%，报5243.42点。 美东时间1月28日，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一。截至收盘，道指涨12.19点，涨幅0.02%，报49015.60 点；纳指涨40.35点，涨幅0.17%，报23857.45点；标普500指数盘初首次触及7000点，随后涨幅收窄， 最终收跌0.01%，报6978.03点。 欧洲三大股指1月28日全线下跌。英国伦敦股市《金融时报》100种股票平均价格指数28日报收于 10154.43点，较前一交易日下跌53.37点，跌幅为0.52%。法国巴黎股市CAC40指数报收于8066.68点，较 前一交易日下跌86.14点，跌幅为1.06%。德国法兰克福股市DAX指数报收于24822.79点，较前一交易日 下跌71.65点，跌幅为0.29%。 黄金白银涨势难挡。1月29日亚市早盘，现货黄金盘中强势站上5500美元/盎司关口，一度触及5598美 元/盎司，随后快速回落，截至8时25分报5480.33美元/盎司；现货白银一度突破119美元/盎司，现报 117.682美元/盎司。国际黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary emphasized the commitment to a "strong dollar policy," denying any plans for market intervention to support the yen, following a significant drop in the dollar index [1][3][4]. Group 1: Dollar Index and Market Reactions - The dollar index attempted to stabilize after a significant drop, which was the largest single-day decline since April of the previous year, reaching a nearly four-year low [1]. - Since President Trump's inauguration, the dollar index has seen a cumulative decline of nearly 10% [1]. Group 2: Treasury Secretary's Statements - Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that a strong dollar policy involves solidifying economic fundamentals, which should naturally strengthen the dollar over time as trade deficits are reduced [3]. - Yellen categorically denied rumors of market intervention regarding the dollar-yen exchange rate, which had been speculated following a review by the New York Fed [4]. Group 3: Market Implications and Expert Opinions - The clarification from Yellen alleviated market concerns about a potential large-scale plan to weaken the dollar, reinforcing the belief that market forces will dictate currency strength [7]. - Experts noted that while a weaker dollar could benefit exports, the long-term risks associated with a declining dollar are significant, especially given the U.S. debt level approaching $40 trillion [7].

北京时间1月29日，美联储在2026年首场利率决议中如期宣布维持联邦基金利率目标区间在3.5%至3.75%不变，暂停了此前连续三次的降息。本次利率决 议获得10票赞成、2票反对，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰和克里斯托弗·沃勒支持降息25个基点。 在新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔对敏感话题三缄其口，在被问及对继任者的建议时表示"要远离政治"，强调美联储独立性的重要性。与此同时，黄金 白银涨势难挡，现货黄金价格强势站上5400美元/盎司关口，日内暴涨约4.5%。 美股市场方面，三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.02%，纳指涨0.17%，标普500指数盘中首次触及7000点后收跌0.01%。存储概念股表现亮眼，特斯拉、 Meta在财报后的盘后交易中上涨。美元指数在经历前一交易日重挫后有所企稳，美国财长贝森特强调美国仍在推行"强美元政策"，并否认美国当局正准备 出手干预汇市以提振日元的消息。 美联储如期暂停降息 鲍威尔建议继任者"远离政治" 北京时间1月29日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不变，暂停了自去年9月以来的连续三次降息步伐，符合市场预期。 本次利率决议获得10票赞成、2票反对，投出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of China's currency policy, emphasizing the transition towards a strong renminbi (RMB) as a key element in establishing a financial powerhouse by 2025, aiming to reduce reliance on the US dollar and enhance the RMB's international status [1][3][9]. Group 1: Historical Context of Currency Policy - Over the past 30 years, China's exchange rate system has undergone significant changes approximately every decade, starting with the 1994 unification of exchange rates, followed by a fixed peg to the US dollar until 2005, and then a market-based adjustment approach [1]. - From 2005 to 2015, the RMB appreciated significantly against the US dollar, with a cumulative increase of 26%, while the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) rose by 46% [8]. - Post-2015, the RMB has exhibited more two-way fluctuations, with the exchange rate generally oscillating between 6.25 and 7.35 against the dollar [8]. Group 2: Policy Directions for a Strong RMB - The 2023 Central Financial Work Conference highlighted the need to accelerate the construction of a financial powerhouse, placing "strong currency" at the forefront of its core elements [3][9]. - The government is expected to enhance policy coordination to elevate the RMB's international status, aiming to provide a viable alternative in the global monetary system [3][4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological innovation and industrial integration to bolster the economic foundation necessary for a strong currency [3][15]. Group 3: Internationalization of the RMB - Significant progress has been made in promoting the RMB as an international currency, with measures taken from 2010 to 2015 to increase its use in international trade settlements and the establishment of offshore RMB markets [19]. - By the end of 2015, the IMF included the RMB in its Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket, marking a milestone in the RMB's internationalization [19]. - As of 2021, the RMB accounted for 2.8% of global foreign exchange reserves, with expectations to reach a more competitive level in the coming years [21][28]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - The potential for RMB internationalization is largely constrained by the degree of openness of China's capital account, with expectations for gradual relaxation of capital flow controls while maintaining macroeconomic management [4][22]. - The government aims to balance the promotion of RMB internationalization with the management of associated risks, focusing on building a robust cross-border payment system to reduce reliance on the SWIFT network [28][29]. - The RMB's role in global trade and investment is anticipated to grow, particularly in transactions with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, as China continues to diversify its trade and investment relationships [27].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has dismissed concerns regarding the recent depreciation of the dollar affecting its status as a global reserve currency, asserting that the dollar's value is unrelated to a "strong dollar policy" [1][2] Group 1: Dollar Performance - The dollar index experienced its worst first half since 1973, with a decline of nearly 11% [1] - The depreciation is attributed to concerns over President Trump's policies, including potential economic impacts from tariff increases and a tough diplomatic stance towards long-time allies [1] Group 2: Economic Policies - The Treasury Secretary emphasized that the Republican tax legislation is creating conditions for economic growth and controlling inflation, positioning the U.S. as a prime destination for global capital investment [1] - There is skepticism regarding the potential for a shift away from dollar dependency in the global financial system, despite discussions about the euro's rising significance [1] Group 3: Euro and Dollar Dynamics - The depreciation of the dollar has led to an increase in the euro's value, with the current exchange rate at 1.175 [1] - Historical context indicates that when the euro strengthens, European Central Bank officials often express concerns about the negative impact on export competitiveness [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, stated that the movement of the U.S. dollar is not related to the strong dollar policy of the Trump administration [1] - A potential rise of the euro to 1.2% against the dollar could provoke a strong reaction from Europeans [1] Group 1 - The U.S. dollar's performance is independent of past administration policies [1] - A significant exchange rate change, such as the euro reaching 1.2%, could lead to notable market reactions in Europe [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary emphasized that fluctuations in currency are natural and reaffirmed the commitment to a strong dollar policy [1] Group 1 - Currency fluctuations are considered a normal occurrence in the financial landscape [1] - The U.S. administration maintains its stance on promoting a strong dollar [1]