也就是说，先喜欢，再判断值不值。 情绪价值成为核心，情绪消费正在成为全球趋势。 市场研究机构数据显示：中国情绪消费相关市场规模已接近2万亿元。 相关行业包括：潮玩、宠物、体验消费、IP联名、内容娱乐、二次元文化。 这些行业的共同特点是：功能并不稀缺，但情绪非常明确。 社交传播已成为产品一部分，过去，产品与营销是两件事。 今天，越来越多产品本身就具备传播属性。 例如，名创优品近几年快速扩张。 其增长背后的关键策略之一，就是IP联名常态化。 合作IP包括：迪士尼、三丽鸥、漫威、哈利波特等。 门店不只是卖商品，而是提供：拍照场景、收藏价值、社交分享素材。 很多消费者排队，并不是因为刚需，而是参与感。 情绪成为溢价来源。 另一个明显变化是：年轻人愿意为情绪支付溢价。 例如Jellycat 在全球范围持续火爆。 Jellycat 的毛绒玩具价格往往远高于普通玩具。 但在社交平台上，用户分享的是：陪伴感、治愈感、情绪寄托。 它卖的不是毛绒，而是情绪安慰剂。 三、为什么情绪消费会爆发？ Z世代消费观念的变化，并不是偶然。 背后至少有三层结构性原因。 1、物质丰富后的心理转移 中国消费市场已经进入供给极度丰富阶段。 大多数功 ...

今日早参 2026 年 2 月 25 日 庄汀洲 石油与化工行业首席研究员 座机：010-56793939 邮箱：zhuangtingzhou@htsc.com 刘俊 电力设备与新能源行业首席研究员 座机：85293275834 邮箱：karlliu@htsc.com 边文姣 电力设备与新能源行业联席首席研究 员 座机：0755-82776411 邮箱：bianwenjiao@htsc.com 今日热点 基础化工：美将磷系农资列入战略资源影响深远 2026 年 2 月 18 日，特朗普政府援引《国防生产法》发布行政令，正式将磷 元素与草甘膦除草剂列为美国战略资源，以保障国内供应链安全。全球近几 年 80%的磷资源下游用于磷肥，草甘膦由于转基因抗性种子需求成为全球第 一大除草剂，二者是全球农资的核心环节。据 USGS，2025 年美国磷矿石 进口依存度 16%，主要来自秘鲁及摩洛哥。美国草甘膦本土产能充足，但考 虑厂商到对欧洲及南美的供应，仍需进口中国产草甘膦。相对而言，中国磷 矿石自给率较高，而草甘膦净出口且产能略过剩。我们认为，磷系农资列入 战略物资因美国对二者供应稳定性的强调，短期在粮价低迷需求不振背景 ...

在52TOYS的门店里，21岁的褚依手里拿着刚抽到的一只毛茸茸的小马，爱不释手。"这个是马年限定 的迪士尼公主小马系列，轻轻拉一下马背上的吊绳，小马的尾巴就会转起来，特有意思。我还买了一 个'马上封侯'的毛绒挂件，拉动马背上的小猴子松手后，马尾巴也会转圈，而且还有步步高升、顺遂兴 旺的好寓意。"褚依说。 "希望通过产品满足用户多元化的情感需求，我们做的也不只是玩具，更是情感的连接者。"52TOYS相 关负责人介绍，在文化认同需求日益凸显的当下，具备中国特色文化的产品也愈发受到市场的青睐。 与以往追求金项链、金手镯等"大件"不同，如今融合了吉祥寓意或联名IP的小克重金饰成了更畅销的品 类，它们以相对亲民的价格降低了决策门槛，让黄金从传统的保值资产转变为记录生活瞬间、给予自我 奖赏的"情绪奢侈品"。南开大学金融学教授田利辉分析，春节实物黄金消费需求会释放，但投资性需求 可能仍受高价抑制。实物消费市场规模相对于全球黄金金融交易体量较小，其影响更多体现在情绪托底 而非价格主导。 如果说黄金消费是价值与情绪的融合，那么潮玩的走红则更纯粹地反映了年轻一代对情感寄托的追求。 在位于北京市朝阳区的朝阳大悦城，各家潮玩店内摇晃 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the emergence of two unique cultural products, "Ma Biao Biao" and a misprinted plush pony, which have gained popularity by breaking away from traditional cultural symbols and resonating with contemporary consumer emotions [3][4] Group 1: Product Overview - "Ma Biao Biao" is a creative product inspired by Qi Baishi's painting, featuring a horse in a dynamic pose, designed for interactive user experience, allowing customization and personal connection [3] - The misprinted plush pony from Yiwu gained attention due to its unexpected design flaw, leading to a surge in consumer demand and positive reviews on e-commerce platforms [3] Group 2: Consumer Trends - Both products cater to the growing consumer desire for unique and emotionally resonant items, reflecting a shift from functional satisfaction to emotional comfort in the market [4] - The rise of emotional consumption is evident, with the emotional economy in China projected to reach 23,077.67 billion yuan in 2024 and expected to exceed 45,000 billion yuan by 2029 [4] Group 3: Industry Implications - The success of these products indicates a new direction for the cultural and creative industry, emphasizing the need to address emotional needs rather than merely replicating cultural symbols [4] - Future cultural products should focus on bridging the gap between cultural essence and public demand, creating items that provide emotional solace and resonate with everyday life [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the consumer sector, particularly highlighting the potential in experience and emotional consumption, domestic travel, and AI technology products [7]. Core Insights - The report indicates a strong recovery in consumer spending during the Spring Festival, with key retail and catering enterprises showing an average daily sales increase of 8.6% compared to the same period last year [10]. - The report emphasizes the growth in experience consumption driven by travel and leisure activities, with significant increases in hotel occupancy and average daily rates during the holiday period [27]. - The report identifies structural opportunities in the market, particularly in AI technology consumption, emotional value products, and the rise of domestic brands [5]. Summary by Sections Retail Consumption - Retail sales during the Spring Festival showed a notable recovery, with a 8.6% increase in daily sales compared to the previous year, driven by improved consumer sentiment and a more active lower-tier market [10][12]. - Specific regions such as Hubei (+12%), Guangxi (+15%), and Nanjing (+17%) experienced rapid growth in consumption [2]. Domestic Travel - The report highlights a record high in cross-regional travel during the Spring Festival, with an estimated 3.1 billion daily movements, reflecting a 6.6% year-on-year increase [14]. - Key tourist destinations saw significant visitor numbers, with hotels experiencing a rise in both occupancy rates and average daily rates, indicating a robust recovery in the hospitality sector [27][19]. Experience Consumption - Experience consumption, particularly in travel and dining, has rebounded strongly, with restaurants like Haidilao reporting a 10% increase in customer flow during the holiday [33]. - Emotional consumption products, such as toys and scented items, gained popularity, with sales of pet clothing increasing by 116% during the holiday season [11]. AI Technology Consumption - The report notes a surge in sales of smart wearable devices, with a 19.7% increase in sales, and smart glasses seeing a growth of 250% [11]. - The introduction of new products under the "old for new" policy is expected to drive further growth in the AI technology sector [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Pop Mart, Haidilao, and Midea Group, focusing on emotional and experience consumption, domestic brand growth, and AI technology [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a steady recovery in consumer spending during the Spring Festival, with significant increases in payment transactions and retail sales compared to the previous year [4][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality companies in high-growth sectors driven by emotional consumption themes [7][35] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The Spring Festival saw a robust recovery in social consumption, with payment transactions on New Year's Eve reaching 4.931 billion, a 21.64% increase from the previous year [4][26] - Key regions like Hainan and cities such as Tianjin and Zhenjiang showed strong performance in retail and dining, with Hainan's duty-free shopping amounting to 1.03 billion yuan, up 20.9% year-on-year [4][27] - Domestic travel orders surged by 60%, and outbound travel orders increased by over 180% during the holiday period [4][26] Investment Recommendations - Investment Theme 1: Focus on high-end gold and fashion jewelry brands, recommending companies like Laopai Gold and Chaohongji for their differentiated product offerings [7][35] - Investment Theme 2: Emphasize retail companies adapting to trends and AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce leaders, with recommendations for Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [7][35] - Investment Theme 3: Highlight domestic beauty brands that cater to emotional value and innovative safe ingredients, recommending brands like Maogeping and Proya [7][35] - Investment Theme 4: Focus on differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and leading medical beauty institutions, recommending companies like Meilitiantian Medical Health and Aimeike [7][35] Market Performance - The retail and social service indices reported declines of 1.59% and 0.78% respectively during the week from February 9 to February 13, 2026 [6][15] - The report notes that the education sector saw the highest growth among sub-sectors, while the watch and jewelry sector led the year-to-date performance with an 11.29% increase [6][18] Company Highlights - Laopai Gold reported a significant revenue increase of 250.9% in the first half of FY2025, driven by strong consumer demand and brand expansion [37] - Chaohongji is expected to achieve a net profit growth of 125% to 175% in FY2025, supported by its differentiated product strategy [37] - Maogeping and Proya are highlighted for their strong performance in the beauty sector, with Maogeping achieving a revenue increase of 31.3% in FY2025 [37]

2026年分行业展望：①美妆医美：中金公司判断2026板块增长更多来自供给侧驱动，如PDRN等成分创 新和功能升级带来的结构性机会，格局上国货龙头份额仍有望继续提升。②潮玩零售：中金公司判断潮 玩品类仍将在全球范围内持续高景气，龙头持续的品类和产品创新、IP深度运营、渠道迭代升级有望创 造新的增长机遇，同时出海仍方兴未艾。③轻工制造：我们判断行业需求弱复苏但存在结构性机会，看 好具备产能优势、品牌优势的出口型企业，和抓住产业变革机会布局新业务焕发成长新动能的企业。 2026投资策略围绕三条主线：一是坚守对情绪及悦己消费的长期布局，如潮玩、美妆个护、新型烟草 等；二是关注新技术催化下的产业革命和投资机会，如AI+等板块；三是积极布局刺激政策托底和基本 面反转型机会，对传统板块可能带来提振。 智通财经APP获悉，中金公司发布研究报告称，展望2026年，伴随着消费者对情绪、功能价值的持续追 求，产业供给升级和消费政策的配套支持，轻工零售美妆行业叙事逻辑从"扩容"进一步转向"提质"，投 资应坚守三大方向：情绪消费、基本面反转和新技术催化下的产业变革。 2026年趋势研判：供给提质，需求升级。①需求端：中金公司梳理轻工 ...

中金公司发布轻工零售美妆行业2026年展望称，展望2026年，伴随着消费者对情绪、功能价值的持续追 求，产业供给升级和消费政策的配套支持，轻工零售美妆行业叙事逻辑从"扩容"进一步转向"提质"，投 资应坚守三大方向：情绪消费、基本面反转和新技术催化下的产业变革。分行业展望：①美妆医美：研 报判断2026板块增长更多来自供给侧驱动，如PDRN等成分创新和功能升级带来的结构性机会，格局上 国货龙头份额仍有望继续提升。②潮玩零售：研报判断潮玩品类仍将在全球范围内持续高景气，龙头持 续的品类和产品创新、IP深度运营、渠道迭代升级有望创造新的增长机遇，同时出海仍方兴未艾。③轻 工制造：研报判断行业需求弱复苏但存在结构性机会，看好具备产能优势、品牌优势的出口型企业，和 抓住产业变革机会布局新业务焕发成长新动能的企业。 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the growing trend of "Goods" (谷子), which are anime and gaming merchandise, becoming popular among young consumers as emotional and social connectors during the festive season [1][11]. Group 1: Market Trends - The "Goods" market is evolving, with products like cards, badges, and figurines becoming new year gifts that resonate with young people's emotional needs [1][3]. - Retail environments, such as the 百联ZX创趣场, are transforming into immersive experiences that blend traditional cultural elements with modern anime aesthetics, attracting families and fostering community engagement [3][6]. - The competition in the "Goods" market is intensifying, with many stores offering similar products, leading to a need for unique customer experiences and cultural understanding to survive [13]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Young consumers are increasingly viewing "Goods" as a means of emotional expression and community belonging, with purchasing experiences tied to personal narratives and social interactions [8][11]. - The purchasing process for "Goods" is described as an emotional journey, from anticipation to satisfaction, highlighting the psychological value these items hold for consumers [9][10]. - There are concerns about the sustainability of this emotional economy, as some consumers face financial strain from their purchases, indicating a need for responsible consumption practices [11][13]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The "Goods" market has developed a complete industry chain, creating new job opportunities in design, production, and community management, reflecting a shift from mere retail to cultural experiences [10][11]. - Industry leaders emphasize the importance of product quality, design, and cultural significance over short-term trends to ensure long-term viability [13]. - The potential for "Goods" to serve as a bridge between generations and foster meaningful connections is highlighted as a key aspect of their value [13][14].

中青报·中青网记者 石佳 周周"创作的扭扭乐ASMR短视频作品。受访者供图 马年春节前，当多数直播间被传统年货"霸屏"时，短视频博主"美式周周"的镜头前却摆满了彩虹般的塑 料条——扭扭乐。随着指尖轻轻拨弄，扭扭乐盘绕转动，发出细腻的声响。评论区不断滚动："温变款 雾海色还有吗？""金属银秒没？"多款热门色系上架即告罄。 "紫蝶、粉晶、秋枫这几个色，仓库说真的补不上了，年后到货第一时间通知。"看着评论区不断刷新的 缺货提醒和询问，"美式周周"对着镜头无奈地笑了笑。"没想到，春节前解压玩具成了'情绪年货'。" 她告诉中青报·中青网记者，一些解压玩具正从年轻群体的指尖"小玩具"，演变为一种关乎情绪消费 的"新风尚"。 春节档的"情绪年货" 在"美式周周"的粉丝群里，春节前的讨论多了一分温暖的"人情味"。 有网友晒出自己买的全色系扭扭乐，打算带回老家送给亲朋好友，"一人一个，大家可以选自己喜欢的 颜色，比发红包有意思。"也有人分享，自己给备考研究生的朋友送了一套解压玩具组合，"他复习压力 大，这个既能解压又能当桌面摆件，比送补品实用。" 博主"美式 这些解压玩具正从个人消遣走向社交场域，成为年轻人之间传递心意的新载体 ...