Core Insights - The IP derivative products have become essential carriers for cultural content dissemination, unique experiences, and audience engagement both online and offline [1] - The market for IP derivative products is transitioning from rapid growth to structural differentiation, driven by frequent cultural and sports events and the emotional value preferences of Generation Z [4] Group 1: Market Trends - The official licensed merchandise stores for the 15th National Games and the Special Olympics have opened over 200 locations across major cities, primarily in landmarks and transportation hubs [2] - The sales of IP derivative products are maturing, with companies like Guangdong Ha Yi Dai Toy Co., Ltd. serving as licensed producers and retailers for major events [2][3] - The integration of traditional scenes with IP derivative products is becoming more common, enhancing marketing and promotional efforts [3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The target demographic for trendy toys includes young adults aged 18 to 35, who appreciate cultural stories and design [3] - A significant portion of customers at the IP derivative stores for the 15th National Games and "Su Chao" events are adults, indicating a broader appeal beyond children [3] Group 3: Strategic Development - The IP derivative market is characterized by a "high heat, low barrier, weak sustainability" contradiction, with many companies treating it as a short-term profit tool [4] - Long-term success in the IP derivative market requires a shift from "traffic dependence" to "value accumulation," creating a closed-loop ecosystem of content, derivatives, experiences, and user engagement [4] Group 4: Policy Support - National and local policies are increasingly supporting the design, production, and sales of IP derivative products, promoting the integration of traditional culture into product design [8][9] - Initiatives in provinces like Shandong and Hubei encourage independent development and cross-industry collaboration in cultural creative product development [8][9] Group 5: Future Directions - Companies are focusing on enhancing the full-chain development and channel layout of IP derivatives, with strategic partnerships for innovative product development [10] - The future of IP derivatives lies in creating unique, narrative-driven products that resonate with consumers, leveraging technology for enhanced engagement [9][10]

当前，IP衍生品已经成为传播文化内容、提供独特体验、聚集线上线下受众的重要载体。 今年夏天，十五运会和残特奥会官方特许商品旗舰店在广州开设，选址在日均客流量超10万的正佳广 场，不远处正是在2017年以84.4万人次成为全国单日客流量最高站点的体育西路地铁站。 第一财经观察到，这种将IP衍生品商店设在"商业地标+交通枢纽"的区位，以最大程度来扩大受众面的 经营模式，已在多类文体旅活动中得以应用。在AI技术和社交文化的推动下，IP衍生品销售在这一基础 上又呈现出新的发展趋势。 十五运会和残特奥会官方特许商品旗舰店 摄/宋婕 IP衍生品推动情绪消费需求抬升 如今，十五运会和残特奥会官方特许商品零售店就已在包括北京在内的全国多个城市开设了两百余家， 大多位于地标、景区、机场、高铁站和地铁站。此前，相关负责人公开表示，这些零售店都是宣传推广 十五运会和残特奥会的窗口。 "苏超"赛事线下唯一的快闪门店，也已经于8月6日在南京南站开业，店内汇集了72个品类、103款周边 产品，涵盖赛事周边文创、纪念品、潮玩盲盒以及融合江苏非遗元素的特色商品。 IP衍生品的产销，已然是相当成熟的业态。广东哈一代玩具股份有限公司是十五运会的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected rise of consumer companies in the Hong Kong stock market, highlighting the missed investment opportunities in companies like Laopoo Gold and others, which were undervalued in the primary market but later became stars in the secondary market [4][10][14]. Group 1: Laopoo Gold's Journey - Laopoo Gold, which saw its stock price increase 12 times since its listing, was initially overlooked in the primary market, with its founder deciding to switch from A-shares to Hong Kong shares [4][5]. - The company received a significant investment from Black Ant at a valuation of 5.225 billion RMB, marking it as the only lead investment in its Pre-IPO round [5][6]. - Despite a lack of interest from other investors, Laopoo Gold's mid-year report showed a nearly 200% year-on-year profit increase, leading to a surge in demand during its IPO, with retail subscriptions oversubscribed by over 580 times [9][10]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - The article notes a shift in market sentiment, with a growing interest in consumer stocks, particularly in the context of rising gold prices and strong consumer demand [10][20]. - The influx of foreign capital into Hong Kong, driven by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and a more favorable view of Chinese assets, has contributed to the bullish sentiment in the market [22][24]. - The consumer sector has become the most active in Hong Kong IPOs, with significant oversubscription rates, indicating a strong appetite for well-performing consumer companies [24][25]. Group 3: Missed Opportunities and Reflections - Several venture capitalists expressed regret over missing investment opportunities in Laopoo Gold and other consumer brands, reflecting a broader trend of underestimating emerging consumer companies [12][14]. - The article highlights that many successful consumer companies were not recognized in the primary market, with investors often focusing on more traditional sectors like tea drinks, which were easier to understand [36][37]. - The narrative emphasizes the importance of recognizing and investing in innovative consumer brands that create new categories, as opposed to following established paths [46][49].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid growth and market dominance of KAYOU, a leading player in the collectible card game industry in China, emphasizing its impressive financial performance and strategic positioning in the entertainment toy market [5][20]. Group 1: Company Overview - KAYOU, founded in 2011, experienced significant growth after acquiring the Ultraman IP in 2018, leading to a diverse portfolio of popular IPs and products [13]. - The company reported a revenue of over 10 billion RMB in 2024, with a net profit exceeding 4.4 billion RMB, showcasing a year-on-year growth rate of 278% and 378% respectively [7][16]. - KAYOU holds a market share of 21.5% in the broader entertainment toy market and 71.1% in the collectible card segment, making it the market leader [8][18]. Group 2: Financial Performance - KAYOU's revenue surged from 2.3 billion RMB in 2021 to 10.06 billion RMB in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 64% [16]. - The net profit increased from 795 million RMB to 4.466 billion RMB during the same period, with a net profit margin rising from 35% to 44% [16]. - The gross profit margin for KAYOU reached 67.3% in 2024, indicating strong profitability compared to industry peers [16][35]. Group 3: Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The collectible card game market in China is still in its early stages, with low per capita spending compared to Japan and the US, suggesting significant growth potential [33]. - KAYOU's unique position in the market is characterized by its focus on collectible cards, while competitors like LEGO and Pop Mart focus on different product categories [19]. - The company has established a robust distribution network with 217 distributors and 351 KAYOU centers across China, contributing to its revenue growth [27][29]. Group 4: Strategic Advantages - KAYOU's competitive edge lies in its effective "IP-Product-Channel" model, allowing for comprehensive value creation from content development to commercialization [22]. - The company has a diverse IP portfolio, including 70 IPs, which reduces reliance on any single IP and enhances revenue stability [23][24]. - KAYOU's product range is expanding, with collectible cards accounting for over 80% of revenue, while other toys and stationery are gaining traction [13][25]. Group 5: Growth Drivers - The growth of KAYOU is driven by the increasing popularity of collectible card games, with a projected market size of 446 billion RMB by 2029 [33]. - The company is focusing on international expansion, leveraging its IPs to enter overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia [34]. - KAYOU's profitability is expected to surpass that of competitors like Pop Mart, indicating strong financial health and growth potential [35][36].

Core Insights - The rise of "pain culture" in the ACG (Anime, Comic, Game) community has led to the popularity of "pain gold" jewelry, which combines gold with popular IP images, appealing to young consumers as a form of emotional expression and investment [1][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - "Pain gold" has gained significant traction among young consumers, with related topics on social media surpassing 2.25 million views [2]. - The demand for "pain gold" products has led to significant price increases, with some items being sold at nearly three times their original gold price [1][2]. - The transaction volume for IP gold products has increased by 294% year-on-year, indicating a strong market trend [2]. Group 2: Product Examples - Various brands have collaborated with well-known IPs to launch "pain gold" products, including 周大福 and 老凤祥, with prices often exceeding those of standard gold jewelry [3][4]. - Specific examples include a gold card featuring Pikachu priced at 888 yuan for 0.5 grams and a Saint Seiya figure priced at 890,000 yuan for 666 grams, showcasing the premium pricing of these items [4]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Young consumers aged 18 to 34 contribute over one-third of gold jewelry sales, reflecting their willingness to spend on unique items like "pain gold" [5]. - The emotional connection provided by IPs encourages young consumers to pay a premium for "pain gold," which is perceived as more durable than traditional collectibles [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current status and challenges faced by Xingzheng Global in the mutual fund industry, highlighting the decline in its equity fund performance and the shift towards fixed-income products [1][14]. Fund Performance - As of mid-2025, Xingzheng Global ranks 20th in non-cash fund size, with a total management scale of 652.3 billion yuan, of which fixed-income funds account for 79% [1]. - Among 4846 mixed equity funds, only a few hundred billion funds remain, with Xingquan funds holding three of them [1]. - The only two billion funds that lost money this year include one from Xingzheng Global, indicating challenges in its equity fund performance [1]. Key Fund Managers - The article highlights the performance of key fund managers, particularly Xie Zhiyu, who manages three funds with varying success. His best-performing fund, Xingquan Social Value, achieved a one-year return of 58.32% [4][8]. - Xie Zhiyu's funds have faced significant losses in recent years, with Xingquan He Run losing over 11.6 billion yuan from 2022 to 2023 [7]. Market Trends and Strategies - Xie Zhiyu has expressed optimism about sectors like technology and consumer goods, particularly in smart driving and emotional consumption [8]. - The article notes that Xingquan Trend Investment, once a flagship fund, has seen its scale shrink significantly and has struggled to keep up with market trends [9][13]. Challenges and Future Outlook - The article suggests that Xingzheng Global's equity business faces difficulties due to issues like cognitive rigidity and slow portfolio adjustments among its top fund managers [14]. - There are indications that Xingzheng Global may focus on ETFs in the second half of the year, but it is unlikely to aggressively push this strategy [14].

Core Viewpoint - The willingness to pay for happiness has no ceiling, indicating a strong potential for companies that can create joy and emotional connections for consumers [1][6]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy emphasizes companies that enhance life quality and happiness, reflecting a personal value system [1]. - The manager has achieved a return of 39.86% since taking over the fund, with a significant increase of over 600% in a key holding [1]. - The investment strategy is built on a cross-industry perspective, particularly focusing on the intersection of consumer goods and technology, known as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [2]. Group 2: Market Trends - The trend towards "self-consumption" and emotional spending is seen as a significant industry trend, with potential for growth in various sectors such as toys, pets, and gaming [3]. - The manager draws parallels with Japan's 1990s experience, suggesting that as material wealth increases, emotional consumption will take precedence [3]. - The manager identified a leading toy company that continued to grow despite a general decline in retail sales, highlighting its unique emotional connection with consumers [3]. Group 3: Future Opportunities - The emergence of AI applications in emotional companionship is expected to create new market opportunities, enhancing consumer experiences in gaming and other sectors [4]. - The importance of the media sector in the A-share market is projected to increase, with notable successes in various cultural products indicating a cultural consumption boom [4]. - Companies that can consistently create joy for consumers may have limitless market potential, similar to Disney's historical market cap achievements [6]. Group 4: Valuation Perspective - The belief that industry trends are more critical than valuation metrics shapes the investment approach, allowing for tolerance of high absolute valuations if justified by growth potential [6]. - The manager highlights the disparity in valuation perceptions between traditional analysts and those focused on emerging technologies, suggesting that this difference can lead to excess returns [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The retail sector shows steady recovery with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% in total retail sales from January to July 2025, and a 3.7% increase in July alone [5][25] - Online channels continue to grow, while offline growth rates are marginally slowing down; specific categories like gold and jewelry, as well as cosmetics, show significant improvement [5][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer sentiment and suggests focusing on high-growth segments such as gold jewelry and domestic beauty brands [8][34] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail index closed at 2214.55 points, up 0.44% for the week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 0.86% [7][16] - The commercial property management sector saw the highest increase this week, while the jewelry sector has led the gains since the beginning of 2025 with a 30.19% increase [20][22] Retail Sales Data - In July 2025, retail sales reached 38,780 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [25] - Online retail sales for the first seven months of 2025 reached 86,835 billion yuan, growing by 9.2% year-on-year, with physical goods online sales at 70,790 billion yuan, up 6.3% [27][28] Key Investment Themes - **Gold and Jewelry**: Focus on brands with differentiated product offerings and consumer insights, recommending companies like Laopuhuangjin and Chaohongji [8][34] - **Cosmetics**: Highlighting the rise of domestic brands and the need for innovation in product offerings, with recommendations for brands like Maogeping and Pola [8][35] - **Offline Retail**: Emphasizing the transformation of retail enterprises to adapt to changing consumer behaviors, recommending companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [8][34] - **Medical Aesthetics**: Suggesting investment in companies with differentiated product lines, recommending Aimeike and Kedi-B [8][36] Company Performance Highlights - Laopuhuangjin reported a revenue of 85.06 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit increase of 253.9% [40] - Maogeping achieved a revenue of 38.85 billion yuan in FY2024, with a growth of 34.6% [36] - Yonghui Supermarket's revenue for Q1 2025 was 174.79 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 19.3% [36]

Core Insights - The exhibition titled "The Time of Ugly Has Arrived" showcases bizarre and unconventional products sold online in China, organized by e-commerce giant Taobao [1] - The event, held from July 29 to August 15, attracted over 3,000 visitors daily, indicating strong consumer interest [1] - Since the inception of the "ugly product" competition in 2020, related sales have exceeded 100 million yuan, with industry growth rates estimated to be in the double or triple digits [1] Industry Trends - Young Chinese consumers are driving the popularity of these unconventional products as they seek to express individuality and find affordable luxury items, a trend referred to as "emotional consumption" [1] - The phenomenon of emotional consumption is increasingly recognized as a "blue ocean" market in China, indicating a growing acceptance and demand for such products [1] - The success of quirky products, such as the cute yet odd toy "Labubu," exemplifies this trend, sparking a global buying frenzy [1] Consumer Perspectives - The exhibition prompted visitors to reflect on the definition of beauty, with some viewing these "ugly products" as a unique form of creativity and beauty [2] - A visitor noted that "ugliness can be another form of beauty," highlighting the creative potential embedded in these unconventional items [2]

行 业 研 究 7 月社零同比+3.7%，金银珠宝和化妆品环比改善 ——行业点评报告 | 黄泽鹏（分析师） | 陈思（联系人） | 姚慕宇（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | huangzepeng@kysec.cn | chensi@kysec.cn | yaomuyu@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790519110001 | 证书编号：S0790124070031 | 证书编号：S0790125040021 | 2025 年 7 月社零同比+3.7%，社会消费维持稳健增长 国家统计局发布 2025 年 1-7 月社会消费品零售总额（下简称"社零"）数据：1-7 月社零总额为 284238 亿元（同比+4.8%，下同），其中 7 月社零总额为 38780 亿 元（+3.7%，Wind 一致预期为+4.9%）。分地域看，1-7 月城镇/乡村社零同比分别 +4.8%/+4.7%。我们认为，国补支持继续对终端消费发挥效用，7 月整体零售维 持稳健增长，结构上有所分化，期待后续消费动能进一步激发。 必选品类中粮油食品韧性更强，可选品类中金银珠宝、化妆品环比提速 价格因素方面，7 月 ...