Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a mixed performance, with new home prices showing slight increases in some cities while second-hand home prices continue to decline, indicating ongoing market adjustments [3][10][11]. New Home Market - In September, the average price of new homes in 100 cities was 16,926 yuan per square meter, a slight increase of 0.09% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 2.68% [5][6]. - The third quarter saw a cumulative increase of 0.47% in new home prices, although the growth rate slowed compared to the second quarter [5]. - First-tier cities, such as Shanghai and Guangzhou, showed stronger performance with new home prices rising by 0.82% and 0.32% respectively in September [6][8]. - The increase in new home prices is attributed to the active launch of quality projects in core cities, which is expected to support new home sales [10][11]. Second-Hand Home Market - The average price of second-hand homes in September was 13,381 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.74% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.38% [10][11]. - Second-hand home prices have been declining for 41 consecutive months, with a cumulative drop of 5.79% in the first three quarters of the year [10][11]. - The decline in second-hand home prices is particularly pronounced in second-tier cities, which experienced a month-on-month drop of 0.87% in September [11][13]. Market Dynamics - The real estate market is characterized by a significant disparity between first-tier and third/fourth-tier cities, with the latter struggling with inventory issues and price declines [8][10]. - Policies aimed at improving housing quality and easing purchasing restrictions in key cities are being implemented to stimulate demand and stabilize prices [15][16]. - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of continued price adjustments in the second-hand market due to high inventory levels [15][16].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China released the results of the Q2 2025 survey indicating that over half of entrepreneurs and bankers view the current macroeconomic performance as stable and normal, holding a neutral to cautious attitude towards the overall economy [1][3][4] Group 1: Entrepreneur Insights - The entrepreneur's business climate index and profit index both increased compared to the previous quarter, with values of 49.3% and 53.2% respectively, indicating a slight improvement in business sentiment [3] - 50.8% of entrepreneurs believe the macroeconomic performance is normal, while 48.6% consider it "cold" [3] - The survey revealed that 32.5% of entrepreneurs expect to "increase profits or reduce losses," an increase of 6.5 percentage points from the previous quarter [3] Group 2: Banker Insights - The banker macroeconomic heat index for Q2 was 33.2%, a decrease from the previous quarter, with 61.9% of bankers viewing the macroeconomic performance as normal [4] - 50% of bankers rated the monetary policy as loose, with a monetary policy sentiment index of 74.6%, which is high [4] - The banker’s expectation for the macroeconomic heat index for Q3 is 37.3%, indicating a more optimistic outlook compared to Q2 [4] Group 3: Resident Insights - In a survey of urban residents, 69.7% reported that their income remained stable in Q2, with a cautious outlook on employment [5] - 51.5% of residents perceive the employment situation as severe, reflecting a cautious sentiment towards job security [5] - 32.1% of residents plan to increase spending on tourism, surpassing education as the top choice for additional expenditures [2][6]

Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment among entrepreneurs and bankers regarding the macroeconomic performance is neutral but cautious, with over half of the respondents perceiving the current economic situation as stable [1][11]. Group 1: Entrepreneur Sentiment - The business climate index and profit index for entrepreneurs have both increased compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slight improvement in sentiment [2][9]. - In the second quarter, 50.8% of entrepreneurs believe the macroeconomic performance is normal, while 48.6% consider it "cold" [5]. - The entrepreneur's macroeconomic heat index stands at 26.0%, which is a decrease from the previous quarter [5]. - The perception of product sales prices and raw material purchase prices remaining stable is reported by 71.2% and 75.5% of entrepreneurs, respectively [7]. Group 2: Banker Sentiment - The macroeconomic heat index for bankers is recorded at 33.2%, showing a decline from the previous quarter, with 61.9% of bankers viewing the macroeconomic performance as normal [11]. - The bankers' sentiment towards monetary policy is positive, with 50% rating it as accommodative [14]. - The bankers' macroeconomic heat expectation index for the third quarter is 37.3%, indicating a more optimistic outlook compared to the second quarter [11]. Group 3: Consumer Sentiment - The urban residents' survey indicates a cautious outlook on employment, with 51.5% perceiving the job market as severe [17]. - Approximately 69.7% of residents believe their income situation remains unchanged in the second quarter [16]. - The top spending intention among residents for the next three months is tourism, surpassing education, with 32.1% planning to increase spending in this area [19]. Group 4: Economic Policy and Market Response - The central bank has implemented a series of monetary and financial policies to stabilize the economy, which has positively impacted market confidence [12]. - The overall demand for loans has decreased compared to the previous quarter, reflecting a cautious lending environment [15].

Report Summary 1. Hot News - China's H1 GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, a 5.3% YoY increase. Q1 GDP rose 5.4% YoY, and Q2 grew 5.2%. H1 fixed - asset investment increased 2.8%, with real - estate development investment down 11.2%. In June, industrial added - value of large - scale enterprises rose 6.8% YoY, and retail sales of consumer goods increased 4.8% [3] - In June, according to 70 - city housing price data, housing prices in all tiers declined MoM, with the YoY decline narrowing. 14 cities saw new - home prices rise MoM, led by Shanghai and Changsha with a 0.4% increase. Only Xining's second - hand home prices rose MoM [3] - The EU Foreign Affairs Council failed to reach an agreement on the 18th round of sanctions against Russia due to opposition from Malta and Slovakia. The sanctions target Russia's energy revenue [3] - China adjusted the catalog of technologies prohibited or restricted for export, deleting 3 items, adding 1, and modifying 1. The newly restricted export technology is battery cathode material preparation technology [3] - US CPI in June rose 2.7% YoY, the highest since February, meeting market expectations. Core CPI rose 2.9% YoY and 0.2% MoM, both below expectations. Traders predict the Fed will start cutting rates in September, with nearly two cuts by the end of the year [4] 2. Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are urea, crude oil, PVC, hot - rolled coil, and soybean oil [5] 3. Night - session Performance - Sector performance: Non - metallic building materials 2.88%, precious metals 28.77%, oilseeds and oils 12.23%, non - ferrous metals 2.80%, soft commodities 18.96%, coal, coke, and steel ore 14.40%, energy 3.27%, chemicals 12.70%, grains 1.23%, agricultural and sideline products 2.77% [5] 4. Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days [6] 5. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.42 | 1.76 | 4.57 | | | SSE 50 | - 0.38 | 1.30 | 2.33 | | | CSI 300 | 0.03 | 2.11 | 2.14 | | | CSI 500 | - 0.03 | 1.75 | 5.12 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.40 | 0.63 | 6.16 | | | Hang Seng Index | 1.60 | 2.15 | 22.58 | | | German DAX | - 0.42 | 0.63 | 20.85 | | | Nikkei 225 | 0.55 | - 2.00 | - 0.54 | | | UK FTSE 100 | - 0.66 | 2.02 | 9.36 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury futures | 0.18 | - 0.00 | - 0.03 | | | 5 - year Treasury futures | 0.13 | - 0.13 | - 0.48 | | | 2 - year Treasury futures | 0.04 | - 0.08 | - 0.54 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | - 0.23 | 1.82 | 2.02 | | | WTI Crude Oil | - 0.39 | 2.65 | - 7.23 | | | London Spot Gold | - 0.59 | 0.64 | 26.64 | | | LME Copper | 0.00 | - 2.37 | 9.82 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 0.17 | 1.86 | 15.92 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.53 | 1.92 | - 9.08 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 2.81 | - 0.86 | [8]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is sending a severe warning to the U.S. economy, with high home prices and interest rates suppressing sales and creating a challenging environment for buyers and builders [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The housing market is expected to become a significant headwind for economic growth, described as a "red signal flare" by Mark Zandi [2]. - Unless mortgage rates, currently near 7%, decrease significantly, home sales, new constructions, and prices are likely to decline sharply [2]. - The Federal Housing Finance Agency director has called for interest rate cuts, criticizing the Federal Reserve's actions as unjust [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has reached 6.83%, leading to high monthly payments for homebuyers, such as $2,900 for a $425,000 home with a 10% down payment [2]. - Despite an increase in available listings, buyer interest remains low, with builders abandoning promotional strategies due to high costs [2]. - Many builders are delaying land purchases, indicating a rapid decline in new home sales, starts, and completions [2]. Group 3: Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that U.S. home price growth will hit a 14-year low this year, with only a 0.5% increase expected in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, significantly lower than previous forecasts [3][5]. - The stagnation in prices, increased supply, and high interest rates are identified as the main factors affecting the market [5]. - Approximately 15% of the 381 cities surveyed by Goldman Sachs may see home prices drop by over 5% in the next two years [5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. housing market remains constrained due to affordability issues, despite a slight increase in existing home sales in May 2023, reflecting the ongoing challenges faced by buyers [1][3]. Group 1: Sales Data - In May 2023, existing home sales totaled an annualized 4.03 million units, exceeding expectations of 3.95 million units and slightly up from the previous month's 4 million units [1]. - Month-over-month, existing home sales increased by 0.8%, contrary to the expected decline of 1.3% [1]. - Year-over-year, existing home sales decreased by 4% [1]. - May 2023 marked only the second increase in existing home sales this year, yet it represented the weakest May performance since 2009 [1]. Group 2: Inventory and Prices - Housing inventory rose by 6.2% in May, reaching 1.54 million units, the highest level in five years [1]. - The median sales price in May increased by 1.3% year-over-year to $422,800, setting a record for the same period [2]. - Over the past five years, home prices have cumulatively risen by 51% [2]. - Despite an increase in inventory, home prices have not declined significantly, indicating a resilient market overall [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - High mortgage rates, currently near 7%, are identified as a primary factor contributing to low sales volumes, with expectations of rates remaining above 6% for at least the next year [1][3]. - The luxury market, defined as homes priced at $1 million or more, is experiencing sales performance that is not superior to lower-priced homes [4]. - In May, 60% of homes sold within a month of listing, consistent with April's figures, while 28% sold above the listing price, down from 30% in May of the previous year [4]. - The South region saw a 1.7% increase in existing home sales, with an annualized sales volume of 1.84 million units, while the West region experienced a 5.4% decline [4]. Group 4: Buyer Composition - Individual investors or buyers of second homes accounted for 17% of sales in May, up from 15% in April, while cash transactions made up 27% of total sales [4]. - First-time homebuyers represented 30% of the sales volume, indicating their ongoing efforts to enter the market [4]. - Existing home sales constitute approximately 90% of the U.S. real estate market sales volume, with data reflecting decisions made in the preceding months [4].

Economic Growth Indicators - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, marking a recovery in growth[2] - Industrial added value growth in May fell to 5.8%, while the service sector's growth rose to 6.2%[6] - Fixed asset investment growth in May dropped to 2.9%, indicating weakened economic support[6] Demand and Production Concerns - Export delivery value growth remained below 1% in May, reflecting weak production related to exports[6] - The production-sales ratio fell to 95.9%, the lowest level for the same period since 2001[6] - High growth in consumption carries risks of overextension, with infrastructure investment growth continuing to decline[6] Price and Inflation Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in May, the lowest since August 2023[6] - The average price of second-hand homes in 70 cities fell by 0.5% month-on-month, the weakest since November 2024[6] Future Economic Outlook - Q2 GDP growth is expected to stabilize above 5%, better than market expectations of 4.9%[6] - The interaction between policy measures and economic growth will determine market risk appetite moving forward[6]

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean presidential office is set to hold a meeting focused on housing prices, indicating a proactive approach to address the ongoing concerns regarding the real estate market [1] Group 1 - The meeting aims to discuss strategies and measures to stabilize housing prices in South Korea [1] - This initiative reflects the government's recognition of the challenges faced by the housing market, which may impact economic stability [1] - The outcome of the meeting could lead to new policies or interventions aimed at curbing rising housing costs [1]

Group 1 - The 2025 "New First-tier Cities Charm Ranking" lists Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou as first-tier cities, while Chengdu, Hangzhou, Chongqing, Wuhan, Suzhou, Xi'an, Nanjing, Changsha, Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Hefei, Qingdao, Dongguan, Ningbo, and Foshan are classified as new first-tier cities [1] - Wuxi has dropped to 21st place among all cities, ranking second among second-tier cities, while Foshan has risen to 15th place among new first-tier cities [4] - The ranking has sparked debates online, with critics arguing that it does not accurately reflect economic total (GDP) or the level of development (per capita GDP) of cities [5][6] Group 2 - The "New First-tier Cities" ranking emphasizes the importance of commercial consumption and living conditions over GDP, suggesting that cities with vibrant commercial sectors rank higher [9][10] - The ranking focuses on the central urban areas of cities, which can lead to discrepancies between GDP rankings and the new first-tier cities ranking [8][11] - The data indicators used in the ranking reflect a value system that prioritizes commercial vitality and livability, indicating that cities with strong third industries and attractive living conditions tend to perform better [17][29] Group 3 - A comparison of 18 cities from 2015 to 2024 shows that "high-ranking cities" have outperformed "low-ranking cities" in terms of retail sales, GDP growth, and population increase [19][20][21] - "High-ranking cities" have seen a significant increase in average housing prices compared to "low-ranking cities," indicating stronger market performance [22][23] - The overall performance of "high-ranking cities" in attracting population, capital, and housing prices has been notably superior to that of "low-ranking cities" [24][25] Group 4 - The "New First-tier Cities" ranking serves as a leading indicator, suggesting that cities with higher rankings are more capable of attracting residents and investments [26][28] - The ranking reflects a trend where cities with strong central urban areas and developed third industries have consistently performed better over the years [29]

Core Viewpoint - In April 2025, the sales prices of new residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China remained stable or slightly decreased month-on-month, with year-on-year declines continuing to narrow [1][2]. Price Changes in New Residential Properties - In April, first-tier cities saw new residential property prices month-on-month stabilize at 0.0%, compared to a 0.1% increase in the previous month. Beijing and Shanghai increased by 0.1% and 0.5%, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [2][4]. - Year-on-year, first-tier cities experienced a 2.1% decline in new residential property prices, a reduction of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. Shanghai saw a 5.9% increase, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen declined by 5.0%, 6.3%, and 3.0% respectively [2][3]. Price Changes in Second-hand Residential Properties - In April, first-tier cities' second-hand residential property prices decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, reversing a 0.2% increase from the previous month. Shanghai increased by 0.1%, while Beijing and Shenzhen decreased by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively [2][4]. - Year-on-year, first-tier cities' second-hand residential property prices fell by 3.2%, narrowing the decline by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines of 1.0%, 0.6%, 7.4%, and 3.7% respectively [3][4]. Summary of Price Indices - The price index for new residential properties in Beijing was 100.1 (month-on-month), with a year-on-year decline of 5.0%. Shanghai's index was 100.5, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. Guangzhou's index was 99.8, with a year-on-year decline of 6.3%, and Shenzhen's index was 99.9, with a year-on-year decline of 3.0% [4][5].