格隆汇12月24日｜瑞银认为，日本央行逐步加息及美联储明年温和降息，不太可能会令美元兑日元显著 下跌。该行认为，日本财政预算相关忧虑依然存在，最新预测显示基本收支赤字将持续，但债务占国内 生产总值比率或会下降，关注接下来将公布的东京消费物价指数、工业生产及工资数据，目前预测东京 核心消费物价指数将因电价下跌，从11月的按年2.8%放缓至12月的2.6%，而核心消费物价指数预计维 持在2.8%。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

12月24日， 现货黄金首次升破4500美元/盎司，日内涨0.48%。今年累涨超1870美元。 受近期国际金价影响，以人民币计价的黄金价格再创新高。 12月23日， 多个品牌足金饰品报价首次 冲上每克1400元。 周生生足金饰品 标价1403元/克，较前一日1367元/克 的价格 上涨36元/克； 周大福、周大生足金饰品标价1403元/克，较前一日1368元/克 的价格 上 涨35元/克； 老凤祥足金饰品标价1399元/克，较前一日1365元/克的价格上涨34元/克；老庙黄金足金饰品标价1402元/克，较前一日 1367元/克的价格 上涨35元/克。 | 今日黄金最新价格 | 单位:元/克 更新时间:12-23 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ■** 周大福 | 周六福 | 輝 周生生 | | | | | 1403.00 | 1389.00 | 1403.00 | | | | | 金条价格 1230.00 金条价格 1284.00 金条价格 1231.00 | | | | | | | ■ 潮宏基 | 图大生 | 一六福珠宝 | | | | | ...

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【12月23日消息：美国三季度成长数据若逊预期，美元将很脆弱】XTB分析师称，若美国第三季成长数 据不如预期，美元会极为脆弱。降温迹象或强化美联储明年进一步降息预期，拉低收益率并削弱美元。 年末流动性减少与全球货币政策变化，会加剧这种敏感性。日本央行近期加息或吸引资本流入日元，若 美国数据不佳，将进一步打压美元。 ...

XTB分析师Hani Abuagla在报告中称，如果美国第三季经济成长数据逊于预期，美元将非常脆弱。任何 经济降温的迹象都可能强化美联储明年进一步降息的预期，从而拉低收益率，进一步削弱美元。年末流 动性的减少以及近期全球货币政策的变化，可能会加剧这种敏感性。特别是日本央行最近的加息可能会 鼓励资本流入日元，如果美国经济数据令人失望，将进一步打压美元。 来源：滚动播报 ...

【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA马棕12月前20日产量环比下滑 7.15% USDA美豆当周出口检验87.02万吨符合预期 20251223 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月23日 07:50 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油03(BMD) | 4016.00 | 2. 07 | 0. 73 | | 布伦特03(ICE) | 61.54 | 2. 36 | 0. 31 | | 美原油02(NYMEX) | 57.95 | 2. 49 | 0. 29 | | 美豆O3 (CBOT) | 1064.00 | 0. 42 | 0. 07 | | 美豆粕03(CBOT) | 301. 70 | 0. 13 | -0.26 | | 美豆油03(CBOT) | 49.08 | 1.49 | 0. 86 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) | 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 98. 29 | -0. 42 | | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures - medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips; Treasury bonds - range - bound [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal - short - term trading; Rebar - range trading; Glass - sell on rallies [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading; Aluminum - strengthen observation; Nickel - observe or sell on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - hold long positions, be cautious on new positions; Lithium carbonate - bullish range - bound [1][11][12] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC - range trading at low levels; Caustic soda - temporary observation; Soda ash - temporary observation; Styrene - range trading; Rubber - range trading; Urea - range trading; Methanol - range trading; Polyolefins - bearish range - bound [1][18][20] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - bullish range - bound; PTA - bullish range - upward; Apple - bearish range - bound; Jujube - bearish range - bound [1][26][28] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Hogs - short - term short on rallies for near - month contracts, cautiously bullish for far - month contracts; Eggs - range - bound; Corn - short - term cautious on chasing highs, hedging on rallies for grain - holding entities; Soybean meal - bullish on dips for near - month contracts, bearish for far - month contracts; Oils - close long positions gradually [1][32][35] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as central bank policies, geopolitical events, and supply - demand relationships. Different futures varieties show different trends and investment suggestions based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [5][8][11] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors like the Fed chair controversy, central bank policies, and geopolitical events, the market has a fast - rotating main line. After the end of recent positive and negative meeting supports, index futures may range - bound. Medium to long - term, they are bullish, and investors can buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: With the upcoming release of China's loan prime rate and the need to monitor the end - of - year fluctuations in the liability side of broad - based funds, treasury bonds are expected to range - bound [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: There is a game between strong bearish realities (high imported Mongolian coal inventory, weak demand) and weak marginal supports. The short - term balance of power between bulls and bears suggests short - term trading [8] - **Rebar**: After the major meetings, the market is in a policy vacuum. Although there are expectations of weakening steel exports next year, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, so range trading is recommended [9] - **Glass**: With factors such as stable supply at the end of the year, weak demand, and the fermentation of supply - increase expectations for soda ash, the glass market is expected to be weak before the Spring Festival, and selling on rallies is advised [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The global copper concentrate supply remains tight, but factors like year - end capital tightness and high copper prices suppressing demand limit the upside. Copper is expected to range - bound at high levels [11] - **Aluminum**: Although the macro - atmosphere is good and LME aluminum breaks through the resistance level, the fundamentals are still weak. Aluminum is expected to range - bound at high levels, and strengthening observation is recommended [12] - **Nickel**: The long - term supply surplus continues. With the uncertainty of the new RKAB policy on nickel ore supply, it is advisable to observe or sell on rallies [14] - **Tin**: The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. Tin prices are expected to be bullish range - bound, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand [14] - **Silver and Gold**: Due to factors such as the rise in the US unemployment rate, the Fed's interest rate cut, and concerns about the US economy, the medium - term price centers of silver and gold move up. Hold long positions for silver and trade in ranges for gold [16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: With strong downstream demand and the continuation of the de - stocking trend, and the risk of Yichun's mining permits, lithium carbonate prices are expected to be bullish range - bound [18] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: With weak domestic demand, high inventory, and uncertain export growth, PVC is expected to range - bound at low levels, and attention should be paid to policies and cost factors [18] - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by factors such as high inventory, alumina production cuts, and winter high -开工 of chlor - alkali enterprises, it is recommended to observe temporarily [20] - **Styrene**: Due to factors such as the geopolitical situation of crude oil, the accumulation of pure benzene inventory, and the limited rebound space of styrene, it is expected to range - bound, and attention should be paid to the price of pure benzene and crude oil [20] - **Rubber**: With the end of the domestic production season, the overseas peak - production season, high inventory in Qingdao ports, and weak tire production, rubber is expected to range - bound [22] - **Urea**: With the decrease in the start - up rate, the weakening of agricultural demand, and the increase in industrial demand, urea is expected to range - bound weakly [23] - **Methanol**: With the recovery of domestic supply, the high - level and narrow - range fluctuation of methanol - to - olefins start - up rate, and the weak traditional demand, methanol is expected to range - bound, and attention should be paid to Iran's situation [25] - **Polyolefins**: With strong supply and weak demand, PE is expected to be bearish range - bound, and PP is expected to range - bound within a certain range [25] - **Soda Ash**: With supply surplus, rising costs, and the reduction of supply contraction, it is recommended to observe temporarily [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has changed slightly. With stable consumption and policy expectations, cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be bullish range - bound [26] - **PTA**: Affected by the geopolitical situation of crude oil and the supply - demand de - stocking, PTA is expected to rise in a range [28] - **Apple and Jujube**: With stable market prices, slow inventory movement, and weak trading atmosphere, apple and jujube are expected to be bearish range - bound [28][30] Agricultural and Livestock - **Hogs**: In the short - term, the pig price is affected by factors such as consumption changes and the slaughter rhythm. In the long - term, it is affected by capacity reduction. Near - month contracts can be shorted on rallies, and far - month contracts are cautiously bullish [32] - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the egg price is range - bound. In the medium - term, the supply pressure eases marginally. In the long - term, the capacity clearance takes time, and attention should be paid to external factors [33] - **Corn**: In the short - term, there is selling pressure, and it is necessary to be cautious on chasing highs. In the long - term, the demand recovers, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to policies and weather [34] - **Soybean Meal**: Near - month contracts are bullish on dips, and far - month contracts are bearish. Spot enterprises can price basis contracts or transfer positions [35] - **Oils**: In the short - term, oils have a sign of stopping falling, and long positions should be closed gradually. In the long - term, they may turn bullish [40]

野村东方国际：日本央行加息的背景、展望及影响 20251222 摘要 日本经济逐步复苏，通胀接近 2%目标，促使央行结束极度宽松政策， 转向中性利率。预计 2026 年核心通胀可能短暂跌破 2%，但整体将回 升，支持进一步政策调整。 市场已基本消化 12 月加息预期，日元汇率加息后出现贬值。植田和男 对中性利率的表述未超预期，避免了市场对日本央行行动滞后的担忧， 降低了日债利率上升和日元贬值的风险。 高市政府采取积极财政扩张政策，虽增加政府负债压力，但财务省测算 显示短期和长期债务压力可控，不会引发系统性冲击。关注 2026 财年 预算，平衡扩张与可持续性至关重要。 本次加息与 2024 年 7 月底的套息交易反转风险不同，大规模冲击概率 较低。日本套息交易指标显示，本次加息差异显著，且植田和男提前沟 通策略，降低了市场冲击。 日债利率上升虽导致银行、寿险等机构出现浮亏，但完善的风险管理和 政府调控能力降低了系统性风险。机构投资者策略差异化，大规模一致 性抛售美债回流国内的可能性较低。 Q&A 日本央行在欧美央行降息的背景下为何持续加息？ 日本央行在欧美央行降息的背景下持续加息，主要有几个原因。首先，日本整 ...

来源：新华财经 日本央行前货币政策委员樱井诚预计，日本央行下一次加息至1%的时间窗口可能在明年6月或7月左 右，但具体时点将取决于经济表现、薪资增长以及通胀走势。他同时指出，此后进一步加息或将面临更 大挑战，因为利率将逐步接近中性水平，尽管日本央行尚未明确该数值。樱井诚认为，日本央行内部很 可能将1.75%视为当前对中性利率的估算水平。若此判断成立，那么加息至1.50%或为目标。他强调， 日本央行可能希望以大约每六个月一次的节奏加息，但正日益担忧来自政府的政治压力。他认为，这或 许正是行长植田和男近期在沟通中保持模糊立场的原因。 转自：北京日报客户端 ...

12月22日，克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈玛克表示，在美联储过去三次会议上连续降息之后，她认为未来 几个月没有任何调整利率的必要。"我的基本预期是，我们可以将利率维持在当前水平一段时间，直到 我们获得更明确的证据，表明通胀正在回落到目标水平，或者就业市场出现更实质性的疲软，"她在上 周四接受《华尔街日报》"应对本周"播客采访时如此表示。 哈玛克称，上周发布的11月份通胀数据看 似良好，但由于10月及11月上半月的政府停摆造成了数据收集的扭曲，该数据很可能低估了过去12个月 的价格涨幅。哈玛克暗示，美联储至少在明年春季之前，不需要调整其目前处于3.5%至3.75%区间的基 准利率。她表示，到那时，美联储将能够更好地评估，随着关税的影响在供应链中得到更充分的消化， 近期的商品价格通胀是否正在消退。 另外，随着假日季的临近，加拿大人纷纷涌入商店购物，初步统计数据显示，继近期销售疲软之后，11 月销售额出现反弹。加拿大统计局周五表示，11月份零售额预计较10月增长1.2%。这将是自6月份以来 最强劲的增长。10月份零售额环比下降0.2%，经季节性调整后为694.4亿加元，约合503.9亿美元。9月 份的零售销售月率向下修 ...

个人提示：1. 本周将进入圣诞假期，流动性可能下降，波动或放大，轻仓是关键。2. 午后至晚间关注美国经济数据（如芝加哥联储全国活动指数），可能引 发短线波动。3. 黄金趋势依然看涨，但午后已不宜追高。最佳策略是耐心等待价格回调至4380-4360美元支撑区域，再考虑分批进场，并设置好止损。 激进等待回踩4380-4390区域布局，止损4370，目标看4410-4420-4430稳健等待回踩4350-4360支撑区域，止损4340，目标看4390-4410-4430 第一金杨生，DYJPPLI（微），香港第一金，第一金官网，第一金平台，第一金代理 如果欧美盘时段金价再次强势拉升，而且站稳4420，激进者可考虑4400-4410轻仓跟进，严格止损。 黄金午后已大幅突破早盘高点，市场上涨逻辑未变，但价格已进入新的阻力区域。金价强势突破，伦敦金站上4400美元，纽约期金触及4430美元以上，市场 进入新的高位博弈阶段。主要利好金价因素：疲软的就业与通胀数据，使市场对美联储明年降息预期升温。地缘政治局势紧张，资金持续流入黄金寻求避 险。全球央行购金及黄金ETF资金流入提供长期支撑。短期抑制金价涨幅因素：连续大涨后，技术 ...