日本旅游类股大幅下挫 11月17日，日本股市开盘大跌，日经225指数一度跌超1%。 日本旅游相关概念股大幅下挫，资生堂股价下跌11%，日本航空一度下跌5%。日本消费品、零售股同样走低，三丽鸥、亚瑟士、迅销等均跌超6%。日本 杂货品牌良品计划股价一度下跌12%，创2024年8月以来最大跌幅。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 * | 总市 三 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 三越伊势丹 | 2374.5 | -9.75% | 8724亿 | | 3099.T | | | | | 资生堂 | 2412.0 | -9.51% | 9648亿 | | 4911.T | | | | | CYBERAGENT网络 | 1412.0 | -9.23% | 7156亿 | | 4751.T | | | | | 李节信用 | 3623.0 | -8.07% | 67191Z | | 8253.T | | | | | 良品计划 | 3006.0 | -7.45% | 16880亿 | | 7453.T | | | | | 大日本印刷 | 2468.0 | -7.29% | 12944亿 | | 7912 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is experiencing significant depreciation, raising concerns about the new government's ability to intervene effectively to support the currency, especially in light of Prime Minister Kishida's signals of a potential slowdown in interest rate hikes [1][2][3] Currency Trends - The yen has depreciated approximately 4.5% against the US dollar this quarter, marking the largest decline among G10 currencies, with the exchange rate reaching around 154.73 [1][2] - The yen's rapid fluctuations have prompted warnings from Japanese officials, indicating a heightened urgency to monitor excessive volatility [1][2] Government and Central Bank Actions - Japan's Finance Ministry previously intervened in the market when the yen fell to around 160.17, with multiple interventions at various levels [2] - Current discussions suggest that if the yen surpasses 155 against the dollar, the likelihood of intervention will significantly increase [2][3] - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates in the last meeting, with a decision on the next policy expected on December 19, and a majority of economists anticipate a rate hike by January [2][4] Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts suggest that if the yen breaks the 155 mark, verbal intervention may intensify, and the probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan could also rise [3] - The market currently estimates a 40% chance of a rate hike by the end of the year, with full expectations for a rate increase not anticipated until April next year [4] Economic Implications - A weaker yen could benefit Japan's export sector by increasing the value of repatriated earnings, but it also raises import costs and inflationary pressures [2] - The potential for intervention may complicate Japan's $550 billion investment plan in the US, which is a key component of the US-Japan trade agreement [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown is expected to end by 2025, leading to clearer economic conditions as key macroeconomic data will resume publication once the government is operational again [1] - The Senate has passed a temporary funding bill to keep the government running until at least the end of January, awaiting House approval and presidential signature [1] Group 2 - Market sentiment suggests that the resumption of labor market and inflation data may not indicate a positive economic outlook, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to consider further rate cuts next month [3] - Traders are optimistic about the end of the government shutdown and the possibility of the Fed lowering rates again after key economic data is released [3] Group 3 - The U.S. dollar has reacted to the expectations of a December rate cut, with the dollar index (DXY) falling below the psychological level of 100 [3] - The decline of the dollar is not uniform, as the Japanese yen remains weak due to expectations of increased fiscal spending by the new Japanese government [4] Group 4 - Gold and silver prices have risen due to the weakening dollar, with gold trading above $4,100 and potential to reach $4,235 if it breaks resistance levels [4] - Silver prices have also gained attention, returning to the $50 mark amid expectations of a supply shortage in 2026 [4] Group 5 - Oil prices have been boosted by the news of a potential end to the government shutdown, with U.S. crude prices rising above $60 per barrel [6] - However, the upcoming increase in supply from OPEC+ may limit further price increases [6]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing fluctuations, currently trading at 153.6200, following a significant rebound after a dip, influenced by various economic indicators and statements from Japanese officials [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The USD/JPY rate saw a decline of 0.5% on Tuesday due to warnings from Japan's Finance Minister, but rebounded on Wednesday, driven by better-than-expected ADP data from the US [1]. - Japan's September wage income level showed a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, raising concerns about the sustainability of demand-driven inflation in Japan [1]. - The market is questioning the Bank of Japan's ability to generate sustainable inflation pressure, given the ongoing weakness in wages despite a rising inflation environment [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The Bank of Japan is awaiting wage growth momentum before considering interest rate hikes, with the December rate increase not guaranteed [1]. - The upcoming speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on December 1 is anticipated to be a critical factor, especially after an unexpected rise in Tokyo's CPI last month [1]. - Market expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan are increasing, as indicated by interest rate futures for January to April next year [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY remains within an upward channel, but the recent decline in the exchange rate amidst a rising dollar index suggests a decrease in market enthusiasm for shorting the yen [2]. - There is a growing risk of adjustment for the USD/JPY as the dollar approaches a potential peak and as the yen's interest rate hike process progresses [2].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's largest labor union, UA Zensen, plans to negotiate for a wage increase in the upcoming year that matches this year's level, targeting a total wage growth of 6% [1] Group 1: Wage Negotiation Plans - UA Zensen aims for a 4% increase in base wages during the wage negotiations ending in March next year, following a successful 4.75% wage increase achieved this year [1] - The union also plans to request an additional 1% wage increase for companies with significant wage disparities compared to their peers [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring wage trends as a key factor in determining the timing of future interest rate hikes, indicating heightened market attention on the upcoming wage negotiations [1] - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has stated that he is watching the "initial momentum" of annual salary negotiations, suggesting that the union's announcement may signal early signs of this momentum [1]

Group 1 - Dongwu Securities indicates that the recovery of prices is crucial for economic growth and capital markets, with favorable conditions in consumption demand, monetary liquidity, and exchange rates [1] - The chief economist of Dongwu Securities, Lu Zhe, highlights that long-term demographic, industrial, and fiscal transformations will boost household income, predicting a more optimistic total consumption due to the simultaneous movement of population and consumption peaks in the next decade [1] - The report suggests that the central bank's initiation of government bond trading and fiscal debt reduction will facilitate the transfer of fiscal deposits to households and enterprises, leading to a significant rebound in M1 growth over the past year, which will in turn drive PPI recovery [1] Group 2 - The dollar has slightly weakened as investors assess the differing views among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate cuts, with some officials expressing caution due to persistent inflation [2] - Wall Street executives warn that investors should prepare for a potential market correction of over 10% within the next 12 to 24 months, emphasizing that such corrections are common in market cycles [2] Group 3 - Analysts from ING state that the daily fluctuations in Eurozone government bond yields are predominantly influenced by U.S. trends, as there are insufficient internal factors to change direction [3] - Mizuho Financial Group's CEO expresses confidence that Japan's growth-promoting policies and potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan will drive bank business expansion [3] Group 4 - Capital Economics suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has room for future interest rate cuts, maintaining a neutral stance despite mixed economic data [4] - Moody's analysis indicates that the RBA is unlikely to cut rates until mid-2026 at the earliest, contingent on a convincing decline in inflation [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Mizuho Financial Group, Masahiro Kihara, expresses confidence that Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's growth-promoting policies and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes will drive bank business expansion [1] Group 1 - Masahiro Kihara highlights that Prime Minister Kishida has a clear vision for economic growth, which is positively received by the market [1] - Kishida announced last month the formulation of a growth strategy plan for Japan's economy, including promoting public-private sector joint investments [1] - The Japanese stock market is currently at historical highs due to investor expectations of favorable growth policies from the new leadership [1] Group 2 - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will raise the benchmark interest rate from the current 0.5% in the coming months due to persistent inflation [1] - Kihara indicates that the Bank of Japan has "one to two more rate hikes" available, and further increases will be prepared once the central bank is confident in wage growth trends [1]

日本央行总裁植田和男在会后的新闻发布会上表示，希望在调整货币政策前"再确认更多数据"。他指 出，美国政府加征关税举措对经济和物价的影响仍存在较大不确定性，关税成本不断转嫁给消费者，可 能对消费和经济造成比以往更严重的负面冲击。植田和男强调，明年春季劳资谈判的结果将成为货币政 策调整的决定性因素，日本央行需要确认，在关税政策挤压利润的情况下，日本企业是否还能表现出积 极的涨薪意愿。日本央行仍将以2%的稳定通胀目标作为加息的重要依据。 美国财政部部长贝森特已在日本央行货币政策会议前发言施压，敦促日本政府给予日本央行足够政策空 间，以稳定通胀预期和汇率。其在社交媒体上表示，日本政府允许日本央行拥有政策空间，是稳定通胀 预期和避免汇率过度波动的关键。市场多将此解读为美方在催促日本央行加息，希望其别被国内政治限 制脚步，也在提醒日本政府不要过度插手。然而日本财务大臣片山皋月却不认为这是美方在敦促日本央 行提高利率。她同时评价日本央行维持利率的决策极其合理，认为考虑到当前经济形势，这是一个恰当 的判断。显然，贝森特的发言并未起到左右日本央行货币政策的直接作用。但也有观点认为，贝森特发 言无需立即见效，为日本央行后续保持政 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate at 0.5%, but Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated an increased likelihood of rate hikes in the near future, similar to the situation before the last rate increase in January [2] - The Bank of Japan raised its growth forecast for the year while warning of ongoing global uncertainties, reflecting an optimistic outlook for Japan's economic recovery [2] - The upcoming wage negotiations in 2024 are seen as a critical factor for potential rate hikes, with the largest labor union aiming for a wage increase of 5% or more [3][4] Group 2 - Pressure is mounting within the Bank of Japan's nine-member board for earlier action on interest rates, with two members reiterating their recommendation to raise rates to 0.75% [3] - External influences, such as U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's comments urging the new Japanese government to allow the Bank of Japan to raise rates, are contributing to the discussion on monetary tightening [3] - Analysts suggest that the timing of any rate hike may depend significantly on the yen's performance, as a declining yen could increase import costs and overall inflation [4][6] Group 3 - Despite hawkish comments from Governor Ueda, the yen fell to a near nine-month low against the dollar, indicating market skepticism about immediate rate hikes [5] - Core consumer inflation in Tokyo rose in October, remaining above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [5] - The potential for further cost-of-living increases could conflict with the new Prime Minister's commitment to alleviate inflationary pressures on households [6]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The potential new Fed chair candidate, Reed, suggests that Powell's stance is more hawkish than expected, increasing the likelihood of skipping a rate cut in December, potentially delaying further easing measures into the new year [1][2] - Nomura Securities has retracted its prediction for a December rate cut after Powell's press conference indicated that a December hike is not guaranteed, with current market expectations for a rate cut by year-end at approximately 72%, down from 91% prior to the Fed's decision [1][2] - CICC estimates that the Fed still has room for three more rate cuts, but the pace of cuts may slow down, influenced by government shutdowns and economic data releases [2] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Outlook - Danske Bank indicates that the ECB is likely to maintain interest rates unchanged in October, with data aligning closely with expectations, although there are growing divergences among members regarding inflation outlooks [3] - ECB President Lagarde is expected to reaffirm a data-dependent approach to decision-making, while the market may be pricing in upward risks for potential rate cuts [3] Group 3: Bank of Japan (BoJ) Policy - Mizuho Bank emphasizes that the BoJ is committed to a gradual normalization of its policy stance, with market participants adjusting their expectations for future policy changes [4] - State Street Global Advisors notes that the likelihood of a BoJ rate hike increases if global trade uncertainties are better assessed, with potential adjustments expected in the coming meetings [4] Group 4: Australian Economic Outlook - HSBC's Australian division reports that unexpected increases in core inflation have fundamentally altered the outlook for official interest rates, with expectations for a rate hike potentially occurring in early 2027 [5]