协议达成后，金融市场迅速反应。日元兑美元汇率一度升至146.82，日本国债期货价格则出现下跌。掉 期交易数据显示，年底前加息概率已从协议前的60%左右升至约80%，显示市场预期明显升温。此前调 查显示，36%的受访者认为2026年1月最可能成为下次加息时点，32%则选择2025年10月。 国际视角来看，日本经济面临结构性挑战。国际货币基金组织预测，2025年日本名义GDP将被印度反 超，跌至世界第五位，主要因日元贬值导致以美元计价的GDP缩水。这一预测较2023年的预估提前了一 年，凸显日本在全球经济格局中的调整压力。 当前，日本央行正平衡多重目标：在关注物价稳定的同时，需评估全球金融市场波动对日元的影响。加 息后，日元快速升值可能会引发市场对出口企业盈利的担忧。副行长内田真一近期表示，若金融市场不 稳定，央行可能暂停进一步加息，此言论一度提振股市并缓解日元压力。 综合来看，日本央行年内加息预期持续升温，但具体节奏仍取决于经济数据表现及全球贸易环境变化。 市场普遍预期，若2025年第四季度经济指标未现显著恶化，央行或于12月会议上首次加息，并可能在 2026年继续调整政策以实现物价稳定目标。 日本央行最新动态 ...

消息人士称，美国总统特朗普与日本达成的贸易协议，为日本央行今年再次加息创造了空间。日本央行 可能通过对经济前景给出不那么悲观的评估，开始释放相关信号。 但四位了解日本央行想法的消息人士表示，短期内加息并非板上钉钉，时机取决于经济能否承受美国关 税的冲击。 "随着美国贸易政策的阴霾散去，日本央行可能认为今年有加息空间，"一位消息人士称，另有两位消息 人士认同这一观点。 "并非所有与贸易相关的不确定性都已消除，"第二位消息人士称，并补充道，日本央行必须仔细分析秋 季前的数据，以判断美国关税对经济的影响。 作为全球第四大经济体，日本一直受困于消费疲软、生活成本上升和制造业低迷。 日本与美国贸易谈判结果的不确定性，是日本央行5月下调增长预期并暂停加息的原因之一。 但消息人士称，本周日美贸易协议的宣布减少了不确定性，为重启加息扫清了一个关键障碍。 他们表示，日本央行可能开始释放重启加息的信号——相比当前聚焦于关税引发的风险，其对经济前景 的评估将更乐观。 尽管核心通胀已连续三年多高于2%的目标，但日本央行在加息问题上一直保持谨慎，担心损害脆弱的 经济。 委员会内部对加息时机存在分歧。由于实际利率仍深度为负，田村直树（N ...

美日关税协议或成日本央行政策转向的催化剂？ 央视新闻报道，当地时间7月22日，美国总统特朗普通过社交媒体宣布美国与日本达成贸易协议：对日关税税率为15%及日本5500亿美元对美投资。日本 将开放其国家的贸易，包括汽车和卡车，大米和某些其他农产品以及商品，并向美国投资5500亿美元，美国将获得其中90%的利润。 据追风交易台消息，巴克莱在7月23日的报告中表示，美日关税协议显著缓解了日本制造业面临的关税压力，提升了明年春季工资谈判实现4.5%以上涨幅 的可能性，为日本央行实现2%通胀目标创造了更有利条件。分析师基于此意外利好将日本央行加息预期从明年1月提前至今年10月，并上调2025财年GDP 增长预测0.3个百分点至0.8%。 GDP增长预测上调0.3个百分点 此前在4月初宣布的互惠关税（有效税率约24%）背景下，巴克莱曾将日本增长预测下调0.7个百分点至0.5%。 但在新协议达成后，美国对日关税降至约15%。考虑到日本向美国商品开放市场意味着进口增加，综合这些正面因素，巴克莱最终做出上调预测的决定。 央行加息预期提前至10月 巴克莱认为，在新关税协议下，日本央行预期加息时间可能从明年1月提前至今年10月。 ...

凯投宏观：日本央行10月加息概率上升 金十数据7月24日讯，凯投宏观经济学家Marcel Thieliant指出，日本央行10月份加息的可能性似乎更 大。Thieliant表示，美国和日本之间达成的贸易协议消除了一项关键的下行风险，日本央行可能会在下 周的会议上对经济前景做出更乐观的评估。由于通胀远超日本央行的预期，Thieliant坚持认为，日本央 行将在10月份恢复紧缩周期。 ...

认为下次加息在10月的受访者比例从30%微升至32%，预计1月行动的比例也从34%小幅增至36%。总体来看，近80%的受访者预计明年1月前会有动作。 调查显示，所有56位经济学家均预测行长植田和男领导的政策委员会将在7月31日结束的为期两天的会议上维持基准利率0.5%不变。 根据在美国总统特朗普宣布美日贸易协议前进行的调查，日本央行观察人士普遍预计当局将在10月或1月上调基准利率。 随着关税前景明朗，下周日本央行会议焦点将转向季度经济展望报告。鉴于今年通胀率持续保持在3%及以上，市场普遍预期央行将上调物价展望，并修正 物价增长风险平衡评估。 凯投宏观亚太区主管马塞尔.蒂利安特指出："通胀远超日本央行5月预测。尽管需要上调本财年通胀预期，但关键在于是否维持2026财年的悲观预测，并仍 认为存在下行风险。" 植田和男主持政策辩论之际，石破茂领导的自民党在周日参议院选举中遭遇历史性挫败，导致执政联盟在参众两院均失去多数席位。 没有受访者认为选举结果会促使提前加息。约35%认为会推迟加息，近同等比例认为属中性因素。 10月和1月仍是日本央行加息的最佳时机 特朗普宣布将日本商品的全面关税税率设定为15%，低于原定8月1 ...

金十数据7月23日讯，荷兰合作银行外汇策略师Jane Foley在一份报告中表示，如果日本央行在年底前加 息的可能性上升，日元将受益。她说，假设未来几周政治不确定性有所缓解，美日贸易协议的通过和上 周日参议院的选举结果可能会增加日本央行进一步加息的可能性。"鉴于日本央行将于7月31日召开会 议，市场将有机会评估该贸易协议可能对货币政策产生的影响。"市场普遍预期日本央行将维持政策稳 定，但市场将寻找未来可能加息的线索。 荷兰合作银行：如果加息的可能性增加，日元可能会升值 ...

金十数据7月23日讯，凯投宏观亚太区主管Marcel Thieliant指出，美日贸易协议的达成预示着日本央行 将在今年重启紧缩周期。Thieliant表示，该协议消除了日本经济面临的一个关键下行风险。随着贸易谈 判显然取得成功，据报道日本首相石破茂将于8月辞职。考虑到自民党在周日参议院选举中的糟糕表 现，这并不令人意外。总体而言，最新事态发展增强了凯投宏观的观点，即日本央行将在10月会议上恢 复加息。 凯投宏观：美日贸易协议消除关键风险，日本央行或于10月恢复加息 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The passage of the U.S. stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in assets like gold and digital currencies, the increased expectation of Powell's early departure and subsequent Fed rate - cuts, along with continuous gold purchases by global central banks and geopolitical risks, may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly set up long positions on price pull - backs. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for different gold and silver markets [1]. 3. Summary by Content a. Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On 2025 - 07 - 22, the closing price was 780.00 yuan/gram, up 3.00 yuan from the previous day and 7.80 yuan from last week. Trading volume was 49,546.00, an increase of 9,284.00 from the previous day and 22,476.00 from last week [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 9368.00 yuan/kg, up 142.00 yuan from the previous day and 259.00 yuan from last week. Trading volume was 537,430.00, an increase of 236,642.00 from the previous day and 53,632.00 from last week [1]. - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 3444.00, up 33.70 from the previous day and 91.90 from last week. Trading volume was 217,981.00, an increase of 32,635.00 from the previous day and 37,040.00 from last week [1]. - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 39.66, up 0.42 from the previous day and 1.25 from last week. Trading volume was 57,469.00, an increase of 7,611.00 from the previous day and a decrease of 18,727.00 from last week [1]. b. Important Information - **U.S. News**: Trump announced a trade deal with Japan where Japan will invest $550 billion in the U.S., and the U.S. will get 90% of the profits. There are also developments regarding Powell's "resignation" and calls for Fed rate - cuts. The U.S. House passed a stablecoin - related bill and inflation data showed mixed trends [1]. - **European News**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates in June, and there are expectations of further rate - cuts by the end of 2025. The eurozone and German (French) manufacturing PMI and CPI data have influenced market expectations [1]. - **UK News**: The Bank of England cut the key rate in May and continued bond - selling. With CPI data and GDP trends, there is an increased expectation of rate - cuts in August and by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japan News**: The Bank of Japan raised rates in January and may reduce bond purchases in 2026. There is an expectation of a rate hike by the end of 2025 based on CPI data [1]. c. Price Ratios and Other Commodities - **Precious Metal Price Ratios**: The ratios of gold to silver prices in different markets (Shanghai, New York, London) showed certain changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 compared to previous days and weeks [1]. - **Other Commodities**: Prices of INE crude, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX crude, Shanghai copper, LME copper, Shanghai rebar, and Dalian iron ore also had their respective changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1]. d. Interest Rates and Stock Indices - **Interest Rates**: Shanghai inter - bank lending rates (SHIBOR), U.S. 10 - year Treasury yields, and inflation - adjusted yields had changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1]. - **Stock Indices**: Major global stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, UK FTSE 100, French CAC40, German DAX, Japanese Nikkei 225, and South Korean Composite Index showed different trends on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1].

金十数据7月23日讯，东京三井住友银行首席外汇策略师置评美日贸易协议：这对日本经济来说是个好 消息。然而，仅凭这一点并不会促使日本央行提高利率，而且对购买日元的推动力可能有限。如果说有 什么不同的话，那就是政治不稳定对市场的影响更大，日元贬值的压力可能会继续下去。 策略师：仅凭美日贸易协议，日本央行不会加息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Japanese Senate election poses significant challenges for the ruling coalition, which must secure at least 50 additional seats to maintain a majority in the Senate [1][2]. Group 1: Election Context - The ruling coalition, consisting of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, currently holds 75 non-renewable seats in the Senate and needs to win 50 more to maintain a majority [1]. - The election outcome could lead to various fiscal policies, including cash handouts and potential consumption tax cuts, depending on the coalition's performance [2][3]. Group 2: Possible Scenarios - Scenario A: The ruling coalition retains a majority, increasing the likelihood of cash handouts being included in the 2025 supplementary budget, but no consumption tax cuts in the 2026 tax reform proposal [2]. - Scenario B: The ruling coalition slightly loses its majority, leading to potential alliances with opposition parties, which may result in both cash handouts and temporary consumption tax cuts [3]. - Scenario C: A significant loss of majority may force the ruling coalition to include opposition parties, facing pressure for both cash handouts and consumption tax cuts [4]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The cash handout policy, amounting to approximately ¥3.5 trillion (about 0.6% of GDP), is expected to have limited impact on economic growth, with only a projected 0.2% increase in private consumption and 0.1% in GDP [7][9]. - In contrast, a reduction in the food consumption tax from 8% to 0% could lead to a more substantial GDP growth of about 0.5% due to a decrease in the effective consumption tax rate [9]. - Analysts warn that temporary consumption tax cuts may lead to a significant GDP decline of 6% in Q2 2027 when these measures expire, potentially prompting political pressure to extend them [12]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - Despite uncertainties surrounding the election, expectations remain that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in January 2026, maintaining the policy rate unchanged for the remainder of the fiscal year [13].