2025年12月09日 星期二 交易策略：建议议息会议前黄金部分获利了结，等待下方支撑买入机会，白银海外市场紧张，但国内连续多 日累库，建议多单暂时止盈。 风险提示：中美贸易摩擦反复，美联储货币政策意外转向 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏强运行。 | | | | | | | | 基本面：中共中央政治局会议表示明年继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和 | | | | | | | | 跨周期调节力度。国内进出口数据走强超预期。供应端，锡矿紧张延续。伦敦注销占比维持高位 | | | | 38%，结构 | | 铜 | 14 美金 | back。精废价差维持在 5500 附近历史高位。临近美联储降息落地和日本央行加息落地，美元指数略 | | | | | | | 有走强。 | | | | | | | | | 交易策略：暂时观望。 | | | | | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 市场表现：昨日电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.3 ...

（来源：新黑金日志） 今天主要精力放在分析重要会议精神上。不过操作建议还是有的。 12月8日晚上期货交易策略 思路分享： 来源：新黑金日志 ...

2025年12月05日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | 贵 | 市场表现：周四贵金属价格分化，黄金震荡而白银走弱。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金 | 基本面：美国挑战者企业 | 11 | 月裁员 | 7.1 | 万人，同比增速放缓至 | 24%，但仍为 | 2022 | 年以来同期最高水平；据 | 属 | 路透报道，日本央行或将把政策利率从 | 0.5%上调至 | 0.75%，这将是自今年 | 1 | 月以来的首次加息；日本 | 30 | 年 | | | | | 3.445%的历史新高；美国财政部短期国库券、中期国债和长期国债的总额在 | 11 | 期国债收益率创下 | 月份增长 | 0.7%，达到 | 30.2 | 1.2 | ETF | 持续流入，COMEX | 1127. ...

（来源：新黑金日志） 来源：新黑金日志 12月4日期货交易策略 思路分享： 黑链指数目前还是在20日均线承压，准备突破这个20日均线。突破了之后其实可以追一下多单的。今天 收中阳线，MACD交叉之后出红柱，黑链指数的资金在午后是加速流入的，所以今天价格还是相当哇塞 的。 螺纹05合约突破20日均线之后，这两天都是调整走势，今天收长下影线，相当于测试了底部位置。 焦煤05合约今天雄起，而且还是增仓2.6万手上涨，多头的反击来的有点猛。 铁矿05合约走势还是偏多头，今天震荡一天，主力都去干焦煤了。 ...

工业硅期货 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 2025.11.24-11.28 中线行情分析 工业硅期货目前处于大区间运行。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2 上周工业硅现货价格维稳，截至11月21日新疆地区421#价格9200元/吨， 云南地区421#价格9900元/吨，四川地区421#价格10000元/吨。长城期货 AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处在横盘阶段。资金方面， 主力显示出较强的偏多情绪。 预计工业硅2601合约运行区间在7500—10000之中。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 工业硅大区间运行，观望为主。 本周策略建议 工业硅大区间运行，观望为主。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日， ...

2025.11.17-11.21 工业硅期货 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 01 P A R T 上周策略回顾 工业硅大区间运行，以逢低做多为主。 本周策略建议 工业硅期货目前处于大区间运行。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2 上周工业硅现货价格维稳，截至11月14日新疆地区421#价格9150元/吨， 云南地区421#价格9900元/吨，四川地区421#价格10000元/吨。长城期货 AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处在横盘阶段。资金方面， 主力偏多态度较为明显。 预计工业硅2601合约运行区间在7500—10000之中。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 工业硅大区间运行，观望为主。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日 ...

Core Insights - The National Futures (Options) Trading Competition, in which Guotou Futures is the designated trading firm for the sixth consecutive year, serves as a practical platform for investors to test trading strategies and provides new traders with valuable experience [1] Group 1: Professional Event Services - Guotou Futures has achieved a record high in client equity participation in the latest competition, particularly in the long-term stable profit group, industry group, and asset management product group, indicating an improvement in the investment level of professional investors [2] - The competition acts as a key platform for futures companies to showcase their research capabilities, service levels, and brand image, attracting numerous active traders and setting new records for participation and equity scale each year [2] - The simultaneous launch of a simulated trading competition provides potential traders with valuable practice opportunities, helping futures companies build a potential customer resource pool [2] Group 2: Talent Development and Investor Education - The competition annually reveals outstanding trading talents and strategies, which futures companies can leverage to enhance their asset management business and provide diversified options for client asset management [3] - The event attracts a diverse range of professional and amateur traders, allowing them to test their trading strategies and improve their risk management skills, thereby contributing to the overall professionalism and high-quality development of the futures market [4] - Successful traders often possess strong psychological resilience and professional trading strategies, which are essential for navigating the volatility of futures trading [4] Group 3: Market Impact and Opportunities - The competition's real trading environment serves as a "test of fire" for strategies and assesses traders' adherence to their strategies during market fluctuations [5] - The event enhances overall market activity and trading levels by attracting a large number of traders, both experienced and newcomers, fostering an environment for mutual learning and strategy innovation [5] - The growing influence of the competition positions it as a key driver for the high-quality development of the futures market [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For lead, due to high lead prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Meanwhile, refinery profits are good, and refinery operations have rebounded, improving the tight supply situation. As a result, lead prices face upward pressure [1]. - For zinc, overseas structural risks have diminished, and there is insufficient upward momentum for zinc prices. Zinc prices are under pressure. In the medium - term, the fourth - quarter zinc ore supply will tighten, and TC is likely to fall, which will support zinc prices to some extent [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,500.00 yuan/ton, up 1.01% [1]. - Shanghai lead futures main contract closing price was 17,650.00 yuan/ton, down 0.06% [1]. - LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,092.00 dollars/ton, unchanged [1]. - The ratio of Shanghai - London lead prices was 8.44 [1]. Fundamental Information - In the central China region, large lead smelters are affected by environmental control, with raw material arrivals slightly affected and the disassembly volume of waste lead - acid batteries declining. If environmental control is lifted on Saturday, the disassembly volume may increase slightly next week [1]. - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some smelters have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead has a small - scale fluctuation [1]. - The operation of secondary lead has recovered to over 50%, with supply increasing, mainly for delivering previous scattered orders, and the inventory accumulation of refineries is not obvious [1]. - Terminal markets have improved, and the operation of lead - battery enterprises is okay, with demand increasing [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold previous short positions [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,560.00 yuan/ton, up 0.09% [1]. - Shanghai zinc futures main contract closing price was 22,740.00 yuan/ton, up 0.26% [1]. - LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 3,072.00 dollars/ton, unchanged [1]. - The ratio of Shanghai - London zinc prices was 7.40, up 0.26% [1]. Fundamental Information - Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. In October, domestic TC may still decline. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and monthly production is expected to be around 600,000 tons [1]. - There is no significant improvement in demand. With the continuous deterioration of the Shanghai - London ratio, the zinc ingot export window is expected to open [1]. Trading Strategy - Lightly short at high levels [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides market analysis and trading strategies for various commodity futures, including base metals, precious metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies vary by commodity, with some markets expected to be volatile and others to trend up or down based on supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical factors, and policy changes. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Base Metals - **Copper**: Market performance showed prices oscillating strongly. Fundamentals include a pending US House vote on a government - shutdown bill and a Fed official's retirement, with a continued tight supply of copper ore. The trading strategy is to view it with an oscillating - upward mindset in the short term [3]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract rose 0.99% from the previous day. Supply is increasing as plants operate at high loads, while demand (weekly aluminum product start - up rate) is slightly decreasing. With a falling dollar index and overseas supply disruptions, prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and inventory changes should be monitored [3]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the main contract rose 0.18% from the previous day. Supply is stable, and demand comes from high - load electrolytic aluminum plants. The market is in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with attention on industry production cuts [3]. - **Zinc**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc 2511 contract rose 0.09% from the previous day. Domestic zinc concentrate supply is tight, while overseas supply is increasing. Consumption is in the off - season, but LME inventory decline provides support. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [3][5]. - **Lead**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead 2511 contract rose 1.18% from the previous day. Supply is stable, and demand from battery enterprises is slightly improving. Domestic inventory is low. The recommended strategy is range - bound operation [3][5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main 01 contract rose 15 yuan/ton. Supply is shrinking as furnace - opening numbers decrease in the southwest, and demand is supported by polysilicon. The price is expected to oscillate between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and it's advisable to buy on dips [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2601 contract rose 0.05%. Supply is expected to be tight in November, with demand from materials like lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increasing. It's recommended to buy on dips cautiously and avoid chasing highs, or consider selling put options [5]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main 01 contract rose 1530 yuan/ton. Supply is decreasing, and downstream product prices are stable. November's production is expected to drop to about 120,000 tons. With the slow progress of the storage platform, it's recommended to wait and see [5][6]. - **Tin**: Prices oscillated strongly. The US House vote and a Fed official's retirement are factors, and tin ore supply is tight. The short - term strategy is to view it with an oscillating - upward mindset and watch the 300,000 - yuan resistance level [3][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Overnight prices rose significantly, with domestic silver hitting a record high and driving up gold prices. Fed personnel changes, inventory changes, and domestic gold ETF inflows are the main factors. It's recommended to buy gold on dips and gradually reduce silver long positions [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2601 contract closed at 3030 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous night. Building material demand and production are both decreasing. The recommended strategy is to wait and see and consider shorting the 2601 contract [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 contract closed at 768 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton from the previous night. Supply and demand are deteriorating marginally, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 contract closed at 1208.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous night. Iron - water production is decreasing, and the market is in a long - term premium structure. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose. The US soybean harvest is nearly over, and South American production is expected to increase. Demand from crushing and exports is improving. It's advisable to focus on the USDA report on Friday, and the domestic market is relatively strong in the short - term [8]. - **Corn**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices rose. Corn inventory is low, and demand from deep - processing is strong. New - crop production is expected to increase, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with a wait - and - see strategy recommended [8]. - **Fats and Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil market fell. Supply in Malaysia is increasing, and demand is also rising. It's expected to continue inventory accumulation in the near - term and enter a seasonal production - reduction period later. The P structure is suitable for reverse spreads [8]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5473 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The global sugar supply is expected to be excessive, and the domestic market may follow the downward trend after a short - term rebound. It's recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. - **Cotton**: Overnight US cotton prices fell. Indian cotton production decreased, and inventory increased. Domestic cotton prices oscillated downwards. It's recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [8]. - **Eggs**: Futures and spot prices both fell. Supply pressure is decreasing as production inventory drops, but demand is weakening after Double Eleven. Egg prices are expected to be weak, and futures prices are expected to oscillate in a range [9]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices fell. Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally. Pig prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and futures prices are expected to oscillate in a range [9]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract oscillated slightly. Supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace due to new device production and import window closure. Demand is weakening as the agricultural film season ends. It's expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and become more balanced in the long - term, and it's advisable to short at high prices or do reverse spreads [10]. - **PVC**: The V01 contract closed at 4583, down 0.2%. Supply is increasing, demand is slightly improving, and inventory is high. It's recommended to short or do reverse spreads [10]. - **PTA**: PX supply is high, and PTA supply pressure is large in the long - term. Polyester factory load is high, and PTA is slightly de - stocking. It's recommended to take profit on long positions and short processing fees on far - month contracts [10][11]. - **Rubber**: The RU2601 contract rose 0.56%. Raw material prices are supportive, and inventory is increasing. It's recommended to maintain an oscillating trading strategy and watch for raw material supply in the main production areas [11]. - **Glass**: The FG01 contract closed at 1049, down 1.2%. Supply is excessive, inventory is high, and demand is weak. It's recommended to wait and see [11]. - **PP**: The main contract oscillated slightly. Supply is increasing as new devices are put into operation, and demand is weakening as the peak season ends. It's expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and become more balanced in the long - term, and it's advisable to short at high prices or do reverse spreads [11]. - **MEG**: The East China spot price is 3981 yuan/ton, and inventory is accumulating. It's recommended to short at high prices on the 01 contract [11]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices fell sharply due to the OPEC monthly report. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is seasonally weak. If Russian oil production decline is less than 500,000 barrels per day, it's advisable to short at high prices [11][12]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract oscillated slightly. Supply is expected to improve marginally in the short - term but weaken in the long - term as new devices are put into operation. Demand is weakening. It's recommended to short at high prices or do reverse spreads in the long - term [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa01 contract closed at 1215, down 0.9%. Supply is stable, inventory is balanced, and demand from photovoltaic glass is normal. It's recommended to wait and see [12].

Core Insights - The "Tongzhou Cup" special award has gained significant attention in the market due to its distinct industry characteristics and professional competition design [1] - Participants in the peanut category, such as Han Jingbo and Huang Liwei, shared their practical experiences and insights from the competition, highlighting their deep industry backgrounds and trading strategies [1][2] Group 1: Participants' Backgrounds - Han Jingbo from Henan Chishu Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. has 16 years of experience in the futures industry, focusing on peanut futures since its inception [1] - Huang Liwei, known as "Mifei Agricultural Products," has been involved in futures since 2009, with a strong focus on agricultural products, particularly peanuts [2] Group 2: Trading Strategies - Han Jingbo employs a strategy combining arbitrage and options selling, leveraging his background in risk management and physical trade to make subjective arbitrage decisions [3] - Huang Liwei emphasizes flexibility in strategy, adjusting approaches based on market conditions and utilizing options to enhance capital efficiency and returns [3] Group 3: Risk Management - Han Jingbo maintained a maximum drawdown of approximately 2.2% during the competition, adhering to strict stop-loss disciplines based on absolute amounts [4] - Huang Liwei highlighted the importance of adapting to market changes, using his deep industry understanding to manage risks effectively, keeping drawdowns within acceptable limits [4] Group 4: Value of the Competition - Both participants acknowledged the value of the "Tongzhou Cup" in expanding their trading perspectives and enhancing their market understanding through interaction with other skilled traders [5] - The competition serves as a professional platform for industry participants to exchange ideas and learn from each other, contributing to the growth of the futures market [6]