Core Viewpoint - The conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a rebound in international oil prices, nearly returning to levels before the April 2 "Liberation Day Tariff" announcement, but energy stocks have not strengthened in tandem, indicating that the market views this conflict as a short-term disturbance rather than a shift in the oil market's bearish fundamentals [1][2]. Group 1 - International benchmark Brent crude oil prices are currently around $73.25 per barrel, only 2% lower than before the April 2 tariff announcement [1]. - The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE.US) has declined by 7% since April 2, while Halliburton (HAL.US), a leading oil service company, has dropped by 10% [1]. - The market perceives the current price surge as unlikely to be sustained, reflecting a bearish sentiment towards energy stocks [2]. Group 2 - Analysts predict an oversupply of crude oil in the second half of the year, which could further depress prices, leading oil companies to reduce the number of drilling rigs [2]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. has decreased by 10% over the past year, according to Baker Hughes data [2]. - Some producers may choose to remain inactive and observe price trends rather than resume drilling operations in the short term [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, New Natural Gas, and Zhongman Petroleum [6]. Core Insights - Macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are driving a rebound in oil prices, with a focus on OPEC+'s actual production levels. The U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding market expectations, and there are ongoing sanctions against Iran, which have made market shorts more cautious. Additionally, the number of U.S. oil rigs has decreased for six consecutive weeks, indicating potential production shortfalls [2][10]. - As of June 6, 2025, the Brent crude oil futures settled at $66.47 per barrel, up 4.02% week-on-week, while WTI futures settled at $64.58 per barrel, up 6.23% week-on-week. The NYMEX natural gas futures closed at $3.79 per million British thermal units, up 9.33% week-on-week [3][11][44]. - U.S. crude oil production increased to 13.41 million barrels per day, with refinery throughput rising to 17 million barrels per day. However, gasoline and distillate fuel oil production saw mixed results [11][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The oil and gas sector is experiencing a rebound in prices due to macroeconomic recovery and geopolitical tensions. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day from May to July, but the market has not fully priced in these changes [2][10]. - The U.S. strategic oil reserves stood at 401.82 million barrels, with commercial crude oil inventories at 436.06 million barrels, reflecting a decrease of 4.3 million barrels week-on-week [12]. Company Performance - The report highlights the performance of key companies, recommending those with strong resource advantages and high dividend yields, such as China National Petroleum Corporation and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation [5][13]. - The report also notes that the oil and gas sector has outperformed the broader market indices, with a 1.1% increase in the sector compared to a 0.9% increase in the CSI 300 index [14][17]. Price Trends - Oil prices have shown significant increases, with Brent and WTI prices rising by 4.02% and 6.23% respectively. Natural gas prices have also increased, with NYMEX futures up 9.33% [36][44]. - The report provides detailed price data, indicating that the Brent crude oil price is currently at $66.47 per barrel, while the NYMEX natural gas price is at $3.79 per million British thermal units [37][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Sinopec, New Natural Gas, and Zhongman Petroleum [6]. Core Views - Macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are driving a rebound in oil prices, with a focus on OPEC+'s actual production levels. The U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding market expectations, and there are ongoing sanctions against Iran, which have made market shorts more cautious. Additionally, the number of U.S. oil rigs has decreased for six consecutive weeks, indicating potential production shortfalls [2][10]. - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day from May to July, but the market has not fully priced in the impact of this increase. Monitoring OPEC+'s actual production in May and global demand during the summer is recommended [2][10]. Summary by Sections Oil and Gas Price Performance - As of June 6, Brent crude futures settled at $66.47 per barrel, up 4.02% week-on-week, while WTI futures settled at $64.58 per barrel, up 6.23% week-on-week [3][36]. U.S. Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production reached 13.41 million barrels per day as of May 30, an increase of 10,000 barrels week-on-week. The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. decreased to 442, marking a decline of 19 rigs week-on-week, the largest drop in five years [3][11][53]. Inventory Levels - As of May 30, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories stood at 43.606 million barrels, down 4.3 million barrels week-on-week. Gasoline inventories increased by 522,000 barrels to 22.830 million barrels [4][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests two main investment themes: 1. Oil prices have a solid floor, and companies with strong earnings certainty and high dividends, such as China National Petroleum Corporation, CNOOC, and Sinopec, are recommended. 2. With domestic encouragement for oil and gas exploration and production, companies like New Natural Gas and Zhongman Petroleum, which are in a growth phase, are also recommended [5][13]. Market Performance - As of June 6, the oil and petrochemical sector increased by 1.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.9% [14][17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly stated, but the analysis implies a complex trend [2] - Fuel oil: ★☆★, indicating a somewhat bullish trend with limited operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish trend with limited operability [1] - Asphalt: Not clearly stated, but the analysis shows a positive trend [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term balanced state with poor operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound of international oil prices is expected to continue, but the upside space is limited due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical negotiations [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong in the short - term, but its long - term strength is expected to be limited [2] - The asphalt market is expected to strengthen steadily due to increased supply and partial demand release [3] - The LPG market is in a low - level oscillation due to supply pressure [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued the corrective rebound after the unexpected downgrade of Sino - US tariffs, with the S006 contract rising 0.79% [2] - Demand is resilient, and global light distillate product inventories have hit new lows, leading to a recovery in overseas gasoline cracking and comprehensive refining profits [2] - Last week, US API gasoline and refined oil inventories decreased, while crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 4.287 million barrels [2] - The recent rebound of crude oil is expected to continue, but the upside space is not overly optimistic, with the oscillation range of Brent at $57 - 70 per barrel, WTI at $51 - 67 per barrel, and S0 at 430 - 510 yuan per barrel [2] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, LU stood out in the oil product futures, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils widened [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil faces supply - side negatives under the OPEC+ production increase, and FU cracking is under pressure to fall from high levels [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has relatively low valuation and seasonal demand increase, but its long - term strength is limited due to factors such as the cancellation of the maintenance plan of the Nigerian Dangote refinery [2] Asphalt - The price of the asphalt main contract has returned above 3,500 yuan per ton, and the near - month contract is relatively strong [3] - Domestic asphalt supply has increased due to increased production by Sinopec refineries and the resumption or transfer of production by local refineries [3] - Demand in the northern market is gradually being released, while that in the southern market is suppressed by rainfall [3] - Refinery and trader inventories have slightly increased, but the overall inventory pressure is not large, and the asphalt market is expected to strengthen steadily [3] LPG - Middle - East exports have increased, and international market procurement is cautious, with import costs expected to decline [4] - The PDH gross profit is still at a low level, and the operating rate dropped below 60% last week. The possibility of resumption of production after the tariff reduction should be noted [4] - The domestic price has declined due to concentrated imports in the first half of May and off - season pressure, and the market is in a low - level oscillation under supply pressure [4]

Group 1 - Oil prices increased on May 8, supported by optimism surrounding upcoming trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, following a decline of over $1 the previous trading day [1] - Brent crude futures rose by $0.51, or 0.8%, to $61.63 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased by $0.57, or 1%, to $58.64 per barrel [1] - The upcoming meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset and Chinese economic officials is aimed at addressing trade tensions that could impact global oil consumption growth [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates amid rising economic uncertainty has raised concerns about weak demand, limiting the extent of oil price increases [1] - A report from ING analysts indicated that the Fed's stance on interest rates has strengthened the dollar, which in turn has created additional resistance in the commodity markets [2] - Increased gasoline inventories in the U.S. have raised concerns among analysts about the potential for rising consumption as the summer demand period approaches [2] Group 3 - OPEC+ is set to increase oil production, which will add further pressure on oil prices [3]

Group 1 - Oil prices are experiencing a sustained rebound due to weakened U.S. production and increased demand from Europe and China [1] - The market outlook is influenced by these dynamics, suggesting potential shifts in supply and demand balance [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring the impact of these factors on future pricing trends and market stability [1] Group 2 - The reduction in U.S. production is a significant factor contributing to the upward pressure on oil prices [1] - Increased demand from Europe and China indicates a potential recovery in global oil consumption [1] - Market participants are evaluating how these trends will affect overall industry performance and investment opportunities [1]

Group 1 - The recent slight rebound in oil prices appears to be more technical rather than driven by fundamentals [1] - Ongoing negative factors include significant shifts in OPEC+ production strategy, demand uncertainty under U.S. tariff risks, and downward revisions in price forecasts, all of which continue to weigh on overall oil price trends [1]

Core Insights - Oil prices have rebounded after hitting a four-year low, raising questions about the sustainability of this increase following OPEC+'s announcement to increase production [1] Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - Oil prices experienced a rebound after reaching a four-year low, indicating potential volatility in the market [1] - Concerns about oversupply have intensified, which could impact the future trajectory of oil prices [1] Group 2: OPEC+ Influence - OPEC+ has called for increased production, which may contribute to the current fluctuations in oil prices [1] - The decision by OPEC+ to increase output could exacerbate supply concerns, influencing market sentiment [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices rebounded due to strong earnings reports from Meta and Microsoft, which supported the U.S. stock market and alleviated concerns about the U.S. economy and OPEC+ production increases [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The rebound in oil prices was influenced by the stock market's rise following the strong earnings reports from major tech companies [1] - The postponement of the next round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks also contributed to the oil price rebound [1] Group 2: Key Events - The next round of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, originally scheduled for May 3, has been postponed due to logistical reasons [1]

华联期货：短期油价有望反弹 东海期货 油价重新上行 华联期货 短期油价有望反弹 西南期货 原油目前走势以震荡反弹为主 东海期货：油价重新上行 特朗普周一表示，将对任何从委内瑞拉购买石油和天然气的国家征收25%的关税，而这些关税将影 响从中国印度到欧洲内的主要经济体，可能也会让以来委内瑞拉提供重质原油的美湾炼厂也面临复杂局 面。另外美国财政部对雪佛龙的委内瑞拉业务设定的最后期限延长到5月27日。油价重新上行。 中国需求显著改善 原油目前走势以震荡反弹为主 3月25日盘中，原油期货主力合约偏强震荡，最高上探至540.1元。截止发稿，原油主力合约报538.8 元，涨幅1.03%。 原油期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 需求端有望提振，美国需求表现不弱，中国原油需求显著改善，受到出行需求的带动，需求端整体 稳中有升。供应端因OPEC+补偿减产措施而缓解担忧，短期油价有望反弹。操作上建议：短期反弹， SC2505参考区间480-550。 西南期货：原油目前走势以震荡反弹为主 乌克兰与美国将于沙特会谈停火协议，世界瞩目，美国希望在4月20日达成和平协议。4月1日 OPEC+将正式增 ...