来源：新浪港股-好仓工作室 主营业务：脱发治疗龙头依赖单一产品，线上渠道占比超七成 蔓迪国际核心业务聚焦皮肤健康及体重管理领域，以脱发治疗为绝对核心。2024年，其旗舰产品蔓迪® 系列米诺地尔产品占据中国脱发药物市场57%份额，米诺地尔类产品占比更高达71%。但收入结构高度 集中，蔓迪®系列贡献超90%营收，存在严重的核心产品依赖风险。 核心产品矩阵 米诺地尔酊剂：2024年收入9.91亿元，占总营收68.1%，为第一大收入来源。 米诺地尔泡沫剂：2024年推出的第二代产品，2025年上半年销售额达2.83亿元，同比激增338%，收入 占比升至38.7%，成为增长主力。 销售渠道：线上收入占比持续攀升，2025年上半年达74%，较2022年的55.2%提升18.8个百分点。线下 依赖106家分销商覆盖药店及医疗机构，但分销商数量从2022年的220家锐减至106家，三年半内减少 51.8%，客户流失风险加剧。 财务表现：收入增速放缓，净利率三连降，流动性指标亮红灯 收入增速放缓至19.9%，泡沫剂成唯一增长引擎 公司收入从2022年9.82亿元增至2024年14.55亿元，复合年增长率21.7%，但2025年 ...

达里欧表示，美股目前正处于泡沫之中，泡沫不会仅仅因为估值过高而破裂。历史上真正引发崩盘的是流动性危机——当投资者突然需要资金来偿还债 务、缴纳税款或满足其他流动性需求时，被迫大规模抛售资产。而在美国最富有的10%人群持有近90%股票的背景下，这种流动性冲击的风险正在加 剧。 美股暴跌之际达里欧再谈泡沫破裂，桥水基金创始人达里欧最新警告，美股目前正处于泡沫之中，而极端的财富集中正在放大市场的脆弱性。 他表示，泡沫的破裂不是由高估值引发，而是当投资者突然需要现金偿债或应对税务时被迫抛售资产所致。在美国最富有的10%人群持有近90%股票的 背景下，这种流动性冲击的风险正在加剧。 达里欧周四在接受媒体采访时指出，尽管当前情况并非完全复制1929年或1999年，但他追踪的指标显示美国正在快速逼近泡沫临界点。"市场中确实存 在泡沫，"他说，"但我们还没有看到泡沫被刺破。而且关键是，在泡沫破裂之前，还有很多上涨空间。" 值得一提的是，达里欧关注的不是企业基本面，而是更广泛市场的脆弱架构。在当前极端的财富不平等、创纪录的保证金债务，以及潜在的财富税等政 策冲击下，泡沫动力学正变得尤为危险。 泡沫破裂的触发因素是流动性危机 达 ...

（原标题：黄金、比特币大震荡：传统投资逻辑不灵了？｜财经早察） 11月19日黄金和比特币价格在经历暴跌后有所回调，但想必前些天的震荡行情一定让不少人心惊肉跳。 今天咱们来复盘一下最近比特币和黄金的刺激行情，风险资产和避险资产一起下跌，如此"反常"现象， 到底什么原因？ 我们先看比特币。11月18日，比特币一度跌破9万美元，这可是最近7个月内头一回啊！相信大家还有印 象，10月6日，比特币还曾经飙升到12.6万美元之上，刷新历史最高纪录，但仅仅几天之后，美国总统 特朗普出人意料的关税言论，导致全球市场震荡，比特币也开始坐上了过山车。短短一个多月，直接把 今年的涨幅全跌没了。 为什么呢？这是宏观预期、政策效应和市场情绪等因素叠加影响的结果。 第一，美国市场宏观预期变了。这是最关键的原因。最近啊，美联储内部在关于12月要不要降息的问题 上分歧更大了，有官员认为美国通胀还没达到理想水平呢，不能降；还有一派就说了，现在劳动力市场 不行啊，得赶紧继续降息、保持宽松来挽救就业和居民消费呀。市场一看，好家伙，你们美联储内部要 达成共识，短时间内看来是没戏了，那12月的降息也有可能会泡汤。美国金融市场就像一个游泳池，美 元就是 ...

接下来说说黄金。如果说比特币下跌是"风险资产"的本色出演，那么黄金的同步下跌，就更值得我们警 惕了。因为这在传统金融逻辑里是"反常"的。 11月19日黄金和比特币价格在经历暴跌后有所回调，但想必前些天的震荡行情一定让不少人心惊肉跳。 今天咱们来复盘一下最近比特币和黄金的刺激行情，风险资产和避险资产一起下跌，如此"反常"现象， 到底什么原因？ 我们先看比特币。11月18日，比特币一度跌破9万美元，这可是最近7个月内头一回啊！相信大家还有印 象，10月6日，比特币还曾经飙升到12.6万美元之上，刷新历史最高纪录，但仅仅几天之后，美国总统 特朗普出人意料的关税言论，导致全球市场震荡，比特币也开始坐上了过山车。短短一个多月，直接把 今年的涨幅全跌没了。 为什么呢？这是宏观预期、政策效应和市场情绪等因素叠加影响的结果。 第一，美国市场宏观预期变了。这是最关键的原因。最近啊，美联储内部在关于12月要不要降息的问题 上分歧更大了，有官员认为美国通胀还没达到理想水平呢，不能降；还有一派就说了，现在劳动力市场 不行啊，得赶紧继续降息、保持宽松来挽救就业和居民消费呀。市场一看，好家伙，你们美联储内部要 达成共识，短时间内看来是没 ...

Market Overview - The global market is experiencing a significant downturn, with major asset classes, including stocks, cryptocurrencies, and gold, facing substantial declines [4][5][10]. - The U.S. stock market has seen a notable drop, with the Dow Jones down 1.18%, Nasdaq down 0.84%, and S&P 500 down 0.92% on a recent "Black Monday" [5]. U.S. Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve's recent shift towards a more hawkish stance has been identified as a primary driver of the market turmoil, with a decrease in the probability of interest rate cuts [11][13]. - The market's expectations for a rate cut in December have significantly reversed, impacting global liquidity and asset prices [11][13]. Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has seen a drastic decline from $126,000 in October to below $90,000, erasing all gains for 2025 and contributing to a growing sense of panic in the market [5][10]. Asian Markets - The Asia-Pacific stock markets have also suffered, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index dropping 3.22%, marking its largest single-day decline since April [8][10]. - The Shanghai Composite Index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index have also experienced consecutive declines [8]. Gold Market Dynamics - Gold, typically viewed as a safe-haven asset, has not performed as expected during this downturn, with prices falling below $4,000 per ounce [10][29]. - The tightening liquidity in the market has led investors to sell gold to raise cash, causing it to move in tandem with riskier assets [29][31]. Nvidia's Earnings Report - Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is anticipated to be a significant market event, as it represents a key indicator for the AI sector and broader market sentiment [15][20]. - Concerns about Nvidia's ability to meet market expectations have led to increased short-selling activity among major investors [17][18]. Japan's Economic Concerns - Japan's recent political statements regarding Taiwan have raised geopolitical tensions, negatively impacting its stock market and tourism sector [18][19]. - The Japanese government is considering a large-scale stimulus plan, but concerns about national debt and economic stability persist [18][19]. A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is under pressure due to external factors, including the U.S. Federal Reserve's policies and the performance of global markets [26][28]. - Analysts suggest that while the A-share market is currently weak, there may be opportunities for recovery as year-end strategies come into play [28]. Conclusion - The current market environment is characterized by volatility driven by multiple factors, including Federal Reserve policies, geopolitical tensions, and corporate earnings expectations [33]. - Long-term investment strategies should focus on identifying quality assets that can withstand short-term fluctuations [33].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the CSI All Share Index dropping by approximately 1% [1] - Global stock markets have shown significant volatility, with Japanese and Korean stocks falling over 3% [3][4] - Various asset classes, including gold and cryptocurrencies, also exhibited considerable fluctuations, often linked to liquidity crises [5][6] Federal Reserve Impact - Concerns are rising regarding the Federal Reserve's potential pause on interest rate cuts from December to the first half of next year, which may tighten global market liquidity in the short term [7] - Historically, such liquidity tightening has typically had a short-term impact on markets [8] - The Federal Reserve is expected to enter a phase of interest rate cuts eventually, as the current dollar interest rates remain relatively high, leading to significant interest payment pressures on U.S. Treasury bonds [9][10] A-share Market Dynamics - Large-cap stocks in the A-share market experienced a smaller decline compared to mid and small-cap stocks, which saw more significant drops [11] - Value style stocks exhibited greater volatility today [12] - The low volatility dividend and free cash flow indices in the Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen market have returned to undervaluation after a decline [13] Investment Strategies - The dividend and free cash flow indices saw a surge in October and November, reaching historical highs, with many stocks moving from undervaluation to normal valuation [14][15] - Currently, these indices are fluctuating around undervaluation and normal valuation levels [16] - The upcoming December index rebalancing will involve selecting a basket of stocks with low valuations, which may lead to a further decrease in valuations [17][18][19] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market also faced declines, with greater volatility than the A-share market [20] - Funds containing Hong Kong stocks experienced significant fluctuations today [21] - Technology stocks in Hong Kong fell over 2%, currently positioned at normal to low valuation levels, suggesting a need for patience [22] Investment Recommendations - The index enhancement investment strategy has returned to normal valuation, prompting a pause in dollar-cost averaging while maintaining positions [24] - The actively selected investment strategy continues normal dollar-cost averaging, though it is nearing normal valuation [24] - The monthly salary investment strategy, which consists of 40% stocks and 60% bonds, is recommended for stable market participation with low risk [24] Pension Fund Insights - The pension index fund investment strategy has been ongoing, with a focus on combinations like the CSI A500 and CSI Dividend indices, representing growth and value strategies respectively [40][41] - Both categories have shown strong performance phases this year, with the CSI A500 yielding approximately 22% and the CSI Dividend around 10% [44] - The strategy emphasizes patience for future undervaluation opportunities, reinforcing the notion that long-term investment success relies on capital availability rather than a lack of opportunities [49]

2. 资产信号："股债金"同步下跌是危险信号。流动性危机的典型特征是"所有资产都被抛售换现金"， 2008年雷曼危机时，标普500暴跌、国债收益率上行、黄金短期回撤同时发生。近期市场虽有波动，但 美股与黄金呈现"跷跷板"效应，未出现同步下跌，说明流动性尚未枯竭。 3. 政策信号：央行"紧急放水"是确认信号。当美联储启动常备回购便利（SRF）、欧央行扩大资产购买 规模等"非常规工具"时，说明流动性紧张已触及金融体系安全底线。当前美联储停止缩表、9月降息 25bp，属于"预防性宽松"，尚未到"紧急救市"阶段，危机概率较低。 历史经验表明，流动性危机中"活下来"比"赚得多"更重要。 "三防三守"原则，避免致命失误，同时捕捉 逆向机会。 近期，美联储一系列动作让"流动性危机"成为市场热议焦点。 美国银行准备金降至2.83万亿美元的临界区间，Libor-OIS利差一度升至110bp，流动性收紧信号明确。 但全球央行同步转向宽松，又为市场筑下"防火墙"。对投资人而言，与其纠结危机是否爆发，不如提前 掌握应对策略——毕竟流动性突变时，预案才是穿越风暴的关键。 应对危机的前提是提前识别。对普通投资人来说，无需紧盯复杂的央行报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has fallen below the $100,000 mark, raising concerns about its stability and potential further declines, with analysts warning of a possible retest of the $70,000 support level if the U.S. stock market continues to decline [1][4]. Market Dynamics - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, erasing 30% of its gains for the year, with a peak of $126,000 on October 6, 2023, now down approximately 25% [1]. - Ethereum has also faced challenges, with a decline exceeding 35% from its August highs [1]. Liquidity Crisis - The recent downturn is characterized as a "two-phase decline," starting with macroeconomic risks and followed by a liquidity crisis that has led to increased volatility in the Bitcoin market [3]. - Following the October 10 crash, liquidity in the Bitcoin market has sharply decreased, causing even small trades to result in significant price movements [3]. Economic Environment - The macroeconomic environment is worsening, with reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and a government shutdown impacting economic data releases, further dampening market sentiment [3]. - The tightening of liquidity is particularly affecting Bitcoin ETFs, which previously attracted over $100 billion but are now facing capital outflows [3]. Technical and Fundamental Pressures - Concerns persist that if the stock market experiences further profit-taking, cryptocurrencies may face a second wave of concentrated selling [4]. - Analysts warn that Bitcoin is still exhibiting characteristics of a risk asset, and further price declines are likely as uncertainties around AI valuations and interest rate cuts loom [4]. Historical Context and Investor Sentiment - There is apprehension among investors about a potential repeat of historical cycles, leading to preemptive market withdrawals to avoid significant downturns [5]. - However, some analysts believe the current sell-off is different from past crises, lacking systemic failures or credit contagion, and expect Bitcoin to reach new highs within 12 to 18 months once conditions stabilize [6]. Investment Strategies - Long-term investors are encouraged to view current price levels as attractive entry points, with some firms reporting record client investments in cryptocurrencies [6]. - Retail investors are advised to adopt dollar-cost averaging strategies and focus on understanding the fundamentals of Bitcoin and Ethereum rather than reacting to market headlines [6].

然而，正相关性意味着两种资产走势方向一致。这可能意味着在股市遭受损失的投资者，会通过变现黄 金收益来弥补亏损。 通常情况下，当其他资产走弱时，投资者若需要更安全的资金存放渠道，往往会转向黄金——但本月情 况并非如此。 近期，黄金与美国股市同步下跌，这表明市场可能正面临更严峻的局面——尤其是如果这意味着投资者 再无安全港湾可寻的话。 上周五，国际现货黄金盘中一度跌超3%，创下周内最低水平。与此同时，标普500指数（SPX）一度大 跌1.3%，比特币触及9.5万美元下方低点。 而在此之前，黄金、标普500指数和比特币已于上周四集体收跌。 "短期内，随着投资者寻求流动性，黄金可能会与其他风险资产同步波动，"期货经纪公司Altavest联合 创始人兼管理合伙人迈克尔·阿姆布鲁斯特（Michael Armbruster）表示。 上周五交易时段内，标普500指数一度转涨，最终小幅收跌，比特币和黄金价格则全天下跌。美股指数 上周五的波动紧随周四的大幅下跌而来，这使其有望在11月久违录得月度下跌。标普500指数已受到科 技板块表现不佳以及市场对整体经济健康状况存疑的拖累。 传奇投资者迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry） ...

北京时间11月14日晚间，贵金属市场全线走低。现货黄金大跌2.69%，报4058.79美元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货跌幅更达3.24%，报4058.6美元/盎司。 市场突变 金价这场暴跌来得突然而迅猛。当晚，黄金现货价格一度大跌3.21%，报4051.22美元/盎司；期货黄金跌幅更是达到3.53%，报4046.4美元/盎司。 白银市场遭遇更猛烈抛售，现货白银下跌3.35%，COMEX白银期货暴跌5.28%。这场暴跌迅速波及整个贵金属市场，现货铂金跌超2%，现货钯金跌超 3%。 白银也没能幸免，白银现货跌3.35%，报50.536美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货跌5.28%，报50.365美元/盎司。 不仅限于金银，整个贵金属市场都被拖累。现货铂金下跌超过2%，NYMEX铂金期货跌幅超过4%；现货钯金下跌超过3%，NYMEX钯金期货跌幅接近 5%。 Anuj Gupta解释道，"黄金和白银的吸引力因为这两个发展而下降"，他预计黄金的弱势短期内还会持续。 流动性危机？ 美国政府的长期停摆原本是金价的支撑因素，但如今这一局面已经结束。 混沌天成期货分析称，"美国政府重新开门落地，市场开始消化因关门而导致的经济风险，以 ...