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消费者余钱去哪儿了?主要用于储蓄,越来越多人愿为快乐买单
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-04-21 07:22
"消费者家庭日常支出之外的余钱主要用于储蓄、子女培养教育、旅游、还房贷和医疗。其中,储蓄排名第一,旅 游消费表现强劲。"4月20日发布的《2025年一季度中国消费者消费意愿调查报告》(以下简称《报告》)如是显 示。 《报告》还指出,尽管一季度消费者意愿较此前有所回升,但整体偏弱。 基于这样的调查结果,作为今年"头号任务"的提振消费,着力点该放在哪里?对此,中国中小商业企业协会和立 信数据研究院在4月20日举行的《报告》发布会上,从消费者的角度出发,进行了解读。 根据《报告》,"余钱"用途排在前五位的依次是储蓄、子女培养教育、旅游、还房贷、医疗,选择比重分别为 48.8%、45.5%、33.1%、32.6%、29.3%,此外,10.4%的消费者表示在日常消费开支之外"没有余钱"。值得注意的 是,消费能力强的高收入消费者的储蓄意愿持续高于中等的低收入消费者。 然而,在总体消费意愿偏弱的背景下,消费者对旅游消费仍表现出较强劲的需求。《报告》分析认为,一方面体 现了消费结构升级的趋势仍在延续,另一方面也表明旅游作为释放压力的一种消费,对于面对各种不确定性困扰 的消费者来说,正发挥着独特的作用。 据南都记者采访和观察, ...
李迅雷专栏 | 促消费2025:社零不能再低于GDP增速
中泰证券资管· 2025-03-26 10:27
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption to stabilize economic growth, highlighting the need for policies that enhance both consumption capacity and willingness [10][19]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Consumption - Consumption is influenced by two main factors: consumption capacity and consumption willingness. Consumption capacity is primarily affected by income, assets, and debt, while consumption willingness is influenced by economic expectations, social security systems, and available time for consumption [7][10]. - The current debt pressure on residents is significant, with the ratio of debt repayment to disposable income at 12.4% in Q3 2024, higher than in some developed economies [7]. Group 2: Policy Initiatives - The "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" outlines a comprehensive approach to enhance consumption through income increases, reduced burdens, high-quality supply, and improved consumption environments, with 30 key tasks across eight areas [10][19]. - The government plans to increase public consumption significantly, as a 1% increase in public consumption can lead to a 0.4% rise in private consumption over the long term [13][19]. Group 3: Targeted Support for Specific Groups - The plan focuses on increasing income for low- and middle-income groups, with measures including employment support and minimum wage adjustments [11][20]. - There is a specific emphasis on providing living allowances for recent graduates who have not yet found employment, recognizing their high marginal propensity to consume [21]. Group 4: Consumption Trends and Projections - In 2024, the growth rate of social retail sales is projected to be only 3.5%, with expectations to increase to over 5% due to enhanced fiscal spending [3][19]. - China's final consumption expenditure accounted for 55.6% of GDP in 2023, which is significantly lower than the global average, indicating substantial room for growth [6][19]. Group 5: Financial Support Mechanisms - The plan introduces fiscal subsidies for personal consumption loans, marking a shift in focus from corporate to individual support, which could stimulate consumer spending [16][22]. - The government aims to balance "old-for-new" policies with cash subsidies for specific groups to ensure equitable access to consumption incentives [19][20].
促消费2025:社零不能再低于GDP增速
李迅雷金融与投资· 2025-03-22 08:38
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant potential for consumption growth in China, while also acknowledging the challenges in boosting consumer spending due to various factors affecting both consumption capacity and willingness [1][4]. Summary by Sections Consumption Capacity and Willingness - Consumption is influenced by two main factors: consumption capacity (income, assets, and debt) and consumption willingness (economic expectations, social security, and available time) [1][4]. - Increasing the income and welfare levels of low- and middle-income individuals is crucial for enhancing consumption capacity [1][4]. Policy Framework - The "Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption" aims to enhance consumption capacity through income growth and reduced burdens, create effective demand through high-quality supply, and improve consumption willingness by optimizing the consumption environment [1][5]. - The plan includes eight areas with 30 key tasks, addressing various factors that suppress consumption [1][5]. Economic Stability and Consumption - The article outlines five key actions to solidify consumption's role in stabilizing the economy, including increasing public consumption investment, balancing "trade-in" policies with cash subsidies for specific groups, and supporting income growth for low-income individuals [1][4]. - The contribution of net exports to GDP growth is projected to be 1.5 percentage points in 2024, highlighting the need for domestic demand, particularly consumption, to rise [1][4]. Global Context and Consumption Potential - Globally, final consumption accounts for over 70% of GDP, with China's consumption share at 55.6%, indicating substantial room for improvement [2][3]. - The government prioritizes boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency as key tasks for 2025 [2][4]. Specific Measures for Consumption Boost - The plan includes measures to enhance income distribution, particularly for low- and middle-income groups, through employment support and wage growth initiatives [6][9]. - It also emphasizes the importance of public consumption, with a recommendation to increase fiscal spending on public services to support private consumption [9][14]. Focus on Major and Service Consumption - The article highlights the need for policies supporting both major consumption (e.g., automobiles, appliances) and service consumption, which currently lags behind developed economies [10][11]. - The plan includes specific actions to promote service consumption, such as improving service supply and attracting foreign investment [10][11]. Financial Support and Monitoring - The introduction of fiscal subsidies for personal consumption loans is a notable aspect of the plan, aimed at stimulating consumer spending [12][13]. - Monitoring the use of funds from consumption loans is essential to ensure they are used appropriately and to mitigate financial risks [17]. Long-term Economic Goals - The article stresses the importance of increasing the share of middle-income households in total income distribution to enhance consumption, projecting significant potential for consumption growth if successful [18][19]. - Achieving a GDP growth target of around 5% in 2024 will require a concerted effort to boost consumption, especially in light of declining export contributions [18][19].
促消费2025:社零不能再低于GDP增速
□ 长期来看,消费还有很大提升空间,但也要客观看待提振消费的难度。影响消费的因素分为消 费能力和消费意愿两大类:影响消费能力的因素主要有收入、资产和债务;影响消费意愿的因素 包括对经济和未来收入的预期、社会保障体系完善程度,以及是否有消费时间等。其中消费能力 是能否提振消费的关键因素,故要想方设法增加中低收入者(边际消费倾向强)的收入和福利水 平 □ 《提振消费专项行动方案》总的政策思路是以增收减负提升消费能力,以高质量供给创造有效 需求,以优化消费环境增强消费意愿,并部署八方面30项重点任务。前七部分部署具体实施的七 大行动,第八部分进一步强调了完善投资、财政、信贷、统计等各项支持政策。文件覆盖面非常 广,涵盖了如何应对各类压制消费的因素 □ 考虑到消费对于经济平稳运行的重要性,接下来可做好五方面工作,以进一步夯实消费在稳经 济中的基石作用:一是更大力度增加财政对公共消费的投入;二是平衡好"以旧换新"和对特定群 体的现金补助;三是切实做好中低收入人群的收入合理增长工作;四是针对已毕业但尚未找到工 作的大中专毕业生,给予适当的生活补助;五是对个人消费贷款财政贴息的同时,加强资金用途 的监测 □ 当前,世界百年 ...