Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery and maintain reasonable price levels, with a focus on optimizing credit structure and enhancing financial support for high-quality economic development [1][2][9]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Environment - The PBOC has implemented a series of monetary policy measures to boost confidence and stabilize expectations, resulting in noticeable effects from counter-cyclical adjustments [2]. - The report highlights the importance of maintaining ample liquidity and aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [1][9]. - The global economic recovery remains uncertain, with risks from U.S. tariff policies and potential financial market volatility [2]. Group 2: Credit Structure Optimization - The credit structure in China is continuously improving, with loans in technology, green, inclusive, elderly care, and digital sectors accounting for about 70% of new loans [1][5]. - Over the past decade, the focus of credit allocation has shifted from heavy asset industries to high-quality development sectors, with corporate loans now making up 79% of new loans [5]. - The proportion of medium to long-term loans in the manufacturing sector has increased significantly, indicating a shift towards supporting sustainable economic growth [5]. Group 3: Price Level and Competition - The report anticipates a moderate recovery in price levels, driven by efforts to regulate low-price competition and enhance consumer spending [3][9]. - The recent revision of regulations to ensure timely payments from large enterprises to suppliers aims to mitigate excessive competition and improve cash flow in the supply chain [3]. - The rise in prices of major commodities suggests a potential for positive supply-demand dynamics, contributing to price recovery [3]. Group 4: Support for Service Consumption - The PBOC plans to enhance financial support for service consumption, which is crucial for economic growth, as the current share of service consumption in household spending is below 50% [7][8]. - Financial policies will focus on improving the supply of high-quality services and reducing financing costs to stimulate consumer demand [7]. - The collaboration of monetary policy with fiscal and social policies is essential to boost the consumption capacity and willingness of residents [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) released the "2025 Q2 Monetary Policy Implementation Report," summarizing the monetary policy execution in the first half of the year and outlining future policy directions [1] Monetary Policy Execution - The report highlights the optimization of credit structure and increased financial support for high-quality economic development, with loans in technology, green, inclusive, elderly care, and digital sectors accounting for approximately 70% of new loans [2][8] - The PBOC emphasizes the need for a moderately accommodative monetary policy, ensuring liquidity remains ample and aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [3][12] Economic Outlook - The report indicates that the PBOC's counter-cyclical adjustment measures have been effective, with a series of monetary policy measures implemented in May to boost confidence and stabilize expectations [4] - It projects stable growth in the second half of the year, supported by ongoing improvements in the national economic cycle and high-quality development [5] Price Level and Competition - The report anticipates a moderate recovery in price levels in the second half of the year, driven by regulatory measures against disorderly low-price competition and the promotion of consumption [6][11] - It addresses the issue of "involution" in competition, where excessive competition has led to financial inefficiencies, and outlines recent regulatory changes aimed at improving payment terms for suppliers [6][7] Credit Structure Optimization - The report notes a significant shift in the credit structure over the past decade, with loans now more aligned with the direction of economic transformation, moving from real estate and infrastructure to sectors supporting high-quality development [8] - The proportion of medium to long-term loans in manufacturing has increased, with the share of corporate loans rising to 79% of new loans [8] Support for Innovation and Service Consumption - The PBOC plans to enhance credit support for technology-driven small and medium enterprises and develop a financial ecosystem that supports technological innovation [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of service consumption as a key driver for economic growth, proposing measures to improve the supply of high-quality services and enhance consumer spending [10][11]

中国人民银行（下称"央行"）8月15日发布《2025年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告》（下称《报告》），总结上半年货币政策执行情况，分析当前经济 金融形势，明确下一阶段政策取向。 | | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 新闻发布 | 深集活通 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | 调查绞计 | 银行会计 | 支付体系 | | 信息公开 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | 学术交流 | 征信管理 | 反洗钱 | 党建工作 | | | 服务互动 | 政务公开 | 政策解读 | 公告信息 | 图文直播 | 央行研究 | 音頻视頻 | 市场动态 | 网上展厅 | 报告下载 | 报刊年鉴 | | | 网送文告 | 办事大厅 | 在线申报 | 下载中心 | 网上调查 | 意见征集 | 金融 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and ensure a favorable financial environment for sustained economic recovery [1][2]. Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC plans to implement a detailed and moderately accommodative monetary policy, ensuring liquidity remains ample and aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [2]. - The report highlights the importance of promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration in monetary policy, aiming to maintain prices at a reasonable level [2]. Structural Support and Financial Stability - The PBOC aims to utilize both the total and structural functions of monetary policy tools to support sectors such as technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [3]. - The report stresses the need to maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate and prevent excessive fluctuations, enhancing the resilience of the foreign exchange market [3]. Price Level Trends - The report indicates a moderate recovery in price levels, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turning positive in June, and core CPI showing a gradual increase since April [4]. - Factors influencing price levels include ongoing economic improvements and efforts to address low-price competition in certain industries, which are expected to positively impact reasonable price recovery [4]. Credit Structure Optimization - The report discusses the continuous optimization of the credit structure, with a significant portion of new loans directed towards strategic sectors and areas needing support, such as technology and green finance [5]. - The proportion of medium- and long-term loans is increasing, providing stable funding for high-quality economic development, while direct financing's share is also rising [5]. Enhancing Service Consumption - The report highlights the importance of improving high-quality service consumption supply, with a focus on creating effective demand through high-quality supply [6][7]. - Financial policies will target supply-side improvements, ensuring ample liquidity and lowering financing costs to foster consumption growth [6][7].

★ 宏观动态 ★ 印度正在寻求以更便捷方式获取中国稀土？中方回应 2025年8月15日外交部发言人林剑答记者问。路透社记者：据了解，印度正在寻求以更便捷的方式获取中国稀土，并可能 在上海合作组织峰会期间的中印领导人会谈中讨论该问题。中方能否证实？ 林剑：具体问题请向中方主管部门询问。 中国海警船与军舰冲撞？国防部回应 8月15日下午，国防部新闻局副局长、国防部新闻发言人蒋斌大校就近期涉军问题发布消息。记者：据外媒报道，中国海 警船在南海黄岩岛附近水域追逐菲律宾巡逻船时，与中国海军军舰发生冲撞。菲武装部队总司令声称，菲武装部队和海 警队员已被指示在执行任务时遵循"交战规则"，根据规则菲方有权自卫。请问发言人有何评论？ 蒋斌：8月11日，菲方多艘海警船、公务船非法侵闯中国黄岩岛领海，中国海警船依法采取跟监外逼、拦阻管制等措施予 以驱离。其间，菲海警船频繁采取高速冲闯、大角度转向穿越中方舰艏等危险动作，制造海上复杂紧迫局面，严重侵犯 中方主权和权益，严重危及中方舰艇人员安全，严重破坏南海和平稳定。我们要求菲方立即停止侵权挑衅言行。中方将 保留采取必要反制措施的权利，坚决捍卫国家领土主权和海洋权益。 央行：把促进物价 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Indicators - July export data exceeded expectations, rising 7.2% year-on-year, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous value, supported by a low base and uncertainty over August tariffs[3] - July PPI fell 3.6% year-on-year, lower than expected, indicating challenges in price recovery despite rising high-frequency data and PMI[3] - Core CPI rose to 0.8% year-on-year, continuing its upward trend from the previous value, suggesting better-than-expected inflation performance[3] Group 2: Market Trends - The equity market saw a volume contraction with an average transaction amount of 1.6964 trillion yuan, down 113.2 billion yuan from the previous week[3] - The yield curve steepened, with short-term rates declining and long-term rates showing volatility, reflecting a mixed outlook for the bond market[3] - The U.S. stock market rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.35%, S&P 500 up 2.43%, and Nasdaq up 3.87%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased to 4.29%[3] Group 3: Monetary Policy and External Factors - The People's Bank of China conducted 700 billion yuan in reverse repos, injecting medium to long-term liquidity into the market, contributing to a decline in short-term rates[3] - The probability of a U.S. rate cut in September rose to 87% due to weak employment data and aggressive White House stance, impacting inflation expectations[3] - The offshore RMB appreciated against the dollar, reinforcing expectations of capital inflows from overseas[3]

Economic Overview - China's GDP exceeded 66 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, growing by 5.3% year-on-year, laying a solid foundation for the annual target of around 5% [1][4] - The economy showed resilience with a 5.2% growth in Q2, supported by unexpected export performance and a series of incremental policies that boosted consumption [1][4] Export Performance - Exports grew by 5.9% year-on-year in the first half, outperforming expectations despite pressures from U.S. tariffs, indicating a shift towards a more competitive and innovative export structure [6][4] - The export sector is expected to face challenges in the second half due to uncertainties in U.S.-China trade negotiations, but the overall impact may be less severe than anticipated [6][4] Investment Trends - Investment growth has slowed, with declines in real estate and infrastructure investments, necessitating stronger policy support to stabilize investment levels [7][4] - Industrial profits and profit margins have decreased compared to the previous year, indicating a need for enhanced investment policies [7][4] Consumption Outlook - Consumption is projected to maintain steady growth, supported by policies such as the 1.38 billion yuan "old-for-new" subsidy and potential increases in social security and income [7][4] - The long-term strategy for boosting consumption involves addressing supply bottlenecks and improving income distribution [15][4] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - A more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy are essential to stimulate demand and support economic recovery [10][4] - The broad fiscal expenditure increased by 8.9% year-on-year in the first half, contributing significantly to economic growth [10][4] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is experiencing increased sales area and sales volume declines, necessitating stronger measures to stabilize the market [16][4] - Policies aimed at improving liquidity for real estate developers and addressing debt issues are expected to be introduced in the second half [17][4] Anti-"Involution" Measures - Efforts to combat "involution" in competitive sectors are crucial for restoring market equilibrium and improving investment returns [18][4] - Regulatory measures are needed to prevent irrational pricing behaviors and ensure fair competition in the market [19][4]

Economic Performance - In Q2 2025, GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a slowdown from Q1, with nominal GDP growth at 3.9%, down by 0.7 percentage points from Q1[2] - For the first half of 2025, GDP growth reached 5.3%, exceeding the annual target of around 5%[5] - The contribution rates of the three drivers of economic growth in Q2 were 52.3% from final consumption, 24.7% from capital formation, and 23% from net exports[2] Consumption Trends - In June, retail sales growth slowed to 4.8% year-on-year, with cumulative growth at 5%[2] - The decline in restaurant income was significant, dropping by 5 percentage points to 0.9% in June[11] - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy's impact weakened in June, affecting consumer spending[19] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment in H1 2025 totaled 248,654 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, down from 3.7%[23] - Manufacturing investment saw a significant decline, with a growth rate of 7.5%, down by 1 percentage point[25] - Infrastructure investment growth was 4.6% in H1, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous month[31] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment fell by 11.2% year-on-year in H1 2025, with residential investment down by 10.4%[51] - The sales area of new residential properties decreased by 3.5% in H1, indicating ongoing demand weakness[40] - In June, the prices of second-hand homes in first-tier cities turned downward, while new home prices in first-tier cities showed a narrowing decline[40] Industrial Production - Industrial added value in June grew by 6.8% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 6.4% for H1[53] - The manufacturing sector's growth was driven by strong performance in the automotive and high-tech industries, with growth rates of 11.4%[59] - The production-sales rate in June was 93.3%, indicating a significant drop and suggesting overproduction relative to demand[63]

上述专家认为，扩内需、治内卷有望畅通经济循环，促进物价合理回升。 当前，我国物价总体保持低位运行，权威专家表示，国内实体经济供需矛盾是主要原因，"通货膨胀是 货币现象"的观点有其诞生的时代背景和前提条件，经济供求因素才是引起物价变动的第一阶原因。 据上述专家解释，物价从根本上是实体经济供需双方相互作用的结果，对于货币主义"通货膨胀是货币 现象"的观点在讨论物价时常有人提到，但这一论断是有前提假设的，其完整表述是"在货币数量增速持 续超过产出增速的条件下，通货膨胀无论何时何地都是一种货币现象"，即只有当货币增速超过产出增 速时，多增发货币才可能引发物价上涨。而且这一表述当时流行，也有上世纪60—70年代发达经济体劳 动力和能源紧张、供给不足的时代背景，货币供给增多带来需求扩张，最终都表现为供大于求物价上 升。 "这与我国当前的经济供求形势不同，过去很长一段时间我国宏观政策思路都是促投资、保供给，供给 短缺的局面已经发生根本转变，出现了供过于求的现象，当前制约物价的主要是需求不足。"上述专家 称。 从扩内需的角度看，货币政策支持力度持续较大。5月中国人民银行推出一揽子增量金融政策，为了支 持服务消费，还专门创设了 ...

Group 1 - The effect of subsidies on consumption is expected to gradually weaken over time, while service consumption shows significant growth potential [1][3] - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The overall low price level in the market is attributed to supply-demand imbalances in the domestic economy and declining international energy prices [1] Group 2 - Over-competition in certain industries is linked to the current low price levels, with recent price cuts in the automotive sector impacting upstream steel companies [2] - Experts emphasize the need for macro policies to focus on expanding domestic effective demand, particularly consumer demand, amid external uncertainties and structural economic transitions [2] - Policies like "trade-in" programs have shown effectiveness in boosting consumption, but future efforts should also aim to enhance disposable income and social security levels [2] Group 3 - China is transitioning to a high-quality development phase, with an increasing demand for high-quality services in consumer spending [3] - The People's Bank of China's recent introduction of service consumption and elderly care refinancing tools is seen as a way to enhance service supply and meet consumer needs [3] Group 4 - The financial system in China significantly supports consumption, with the total consumer loan balance reaching 58.7 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, which is 7.8 times that of 2010 [4] - The availability of consumer finance products has increased, improving the convenience of consumer financing for residents [4] Group 5 - There is a notable shortage of quality service supply in certain inclusive sectors, which presents an important focus for future financial policies aimed at promoting consumption [5] - While lower interest rates can theoretically promote consumption, the sustainability of consumer loans must be balanced with the financial institutions' operational costs [5]