今年以来保持较大发行力度的政府债券，以及直接融资的加快发展，持续带动社融规模的增长。今年前 11个月，政府债券净融资13.15万亿元，占社融增量近四成。 全年安排的新增政府债务总规模为11.86万亿元，比去年增加2.9万亿元，其中国债、特别国债和地方政 府新增专项债券额度都有所增加，相应带动政府债券在社会融资规模中占比提升。政府部门通过发债加 杠杆，有力带动了全社会的信用扩张，对社融规模增长形成重要支撑。 目前来看，1.3万亿元超长期特别国债已发行完毕，2万亿元置换债券和4.4万亿元主要用于项目建设的新 增专项债券基本发完。近期，财政部宣布提前下达部分2026年新增地方政府专项债务限额。经市场机构 初步测算，今年我国政府债券净融资额有望突破12万亿元。 11月末，社融规模增量保持较快增长，政府债券净融资、企业债券、股权融资等继续发挥支撑作用；信 贷投放提质换挡，普惠小微贷款、制造业中长期贷款、科技贷款继续较快增长，增速持续高于全部贷款 增速。 只看贷款增长情况越来越难以完整反映金融支持实体经济的成效。前述业内专家表示，社会融资成本低 位运行，说明实体经济融资需求被合理满足；重点领域信贷投放占比提升，说明金融资 ...

政府债与直接融资继续拉动社融增长 今年以来保持较大发行力度的政府债券，以及直接融资的加快发展，持续带动社融规模的增长。今年前 十一个月，政府债券净融资13.15万亿元，占社融增量社融增量近四成。 全年安排的新增政府债务总规模为11.86万亿元，比去年增加2.9万亿元，其中国债、特别国债和地方政 府新增专项债券额度都有所增加，相应带动政府债券在社会融资规模中占比提升。政府部门通过发债加 杠杆，有力带动了全社会的信用扩张，对社融规模增长形成重要支撑。 目前来看，1.3万亿元超长期特别国债已发行完毕，2万亿元置换债券和4.4万亿元主要用于项目建设的新 增专项债券基本发完。近期，财政部宣布提前下达部分2026年新增地方政府专项债务限额。经市场机构 初步测算，今年我国政府债券净融资额有望突破12万亿元。 除政府债券净融资外，企业债券、股权融资等其他直接融资渠道也较去年明显增长。今年1—11月，社 会融资规模中企业债券融资2.24万亿元，同比多3125亿元；非金融企业境内股票融资4204亿元，同比多 1788亿元。 "积极发展股权、债券等直接融资"是"十五五"规划建议锚定加快建设金融强国目标做出的明确部署。业 内专家表示 ...

最新发布。 12月12日，中国人民银行发布的最新金融统计数据报告显示，经初步统计，2025年前11个月社会融资 （社融）规模增量累计为33.39万亿元，比上年同期多增3.99万亿元。11月末，社融存量的同比增速为 8.5%，与上月持平；广义货币（M2）增速8%，环比下降0.2个百分点；反映资金活化程度的狭义货币 （M1）增速为4.9%，环比下降1.3个百分点。 从金融总量表现看，11月末社会融资规模存量、M2增速均保持不低于8%的较高增速水平。"这充分体 现了适度宽松的货币政策状态，为经济高质量发展营造了适宜的金融总量环境。"业内专家表示，今年 以来，宏观政策加大逆周期调节力度，对提振内需、稳定经济发挥了积极作用，也为金融总量合理增长 提供了支撑。 只看贷款增长情况越来越难以完整反映金融支持实体经济的成效。前述业内专家表示，社会融资成本低 位运行，说明实体经济融资需求被合理满足；重点领域信贷投放占比提升，说明金融资源供给与实体经 济高质量发展的需要更为适配，这些都是金融支持实体经济质效提升的体现。 11月末，社融规模增量保持较快增长，政府债券净融资、企业债券、股权融资等继续发挥支撑作用；信 贷投放"提质换挡" ...

最新发布。 12月12日，中国人民银行发布的最新金融统计数据报告显示，经初步统计，2025年前11个月社会融资（社融）规模增量累计为33.39万亿元，比上年同期多增3.99万 亿元。11月末，社融存量的同比增速为8.5%，与上月持平；广义货币（M2）增速8%，环比下降0.2个百分点；反映资金活化程度的狭义货币（M1）增速为4.9%， 环比下降1.3个百分点。 从金融总量表现看，11月末社会融资规模存量、M2增速均保持不低于8%的较高增速水平。"这充分体现了适度宽松的货币政策状态，为经济高质量发展营造了适宜 的金融总量环境。"业内专家表示，今年以来，宏观政策加大逆周期调节力度，对提振内需、稳定经济发挥了积极作用，也为金融总量合理增长提供了支撑。 11月末，社融规模增量保持较快增长，政府债券净融资、企业债券、股权融资等继续发挥支撑作用；信贷投放"提质换挡"，普惠小微贷款、制造业中长期贷款、科 技贷款继续较快增长，增速持续高于全部贷款增速。 只看贷款增长情况越来越难以完整反映金融支持实体经济的成效。前述业内专家表示，社会融资成本低位运行，说明实体经济融资需求被合理满足；重点领域信贷 投放占比提升，说明金融资源供给与 ...

Group 1 - The price of 2025 Feitian Moutai (original box) has decreased by 15 yuan, now priced at 1495 yuan per bottle, marking the first time it has fallen below the 1499 yuan guidance price [1] - On December 12, Guizhou Moutai's stock price increased to 1420 yuan per share, despite the recent drop in the price of Feitian Moutai [1] - After approximately five years of adjustment, Guizhou Moutai's stock price has stabilized, with institutional holdings at a near ten-year low, indicating a weakening correlation between stock price and wholesale price [1] Group 2 - Positive macroeconomic signals are contributing to the stabilization and rebound of leading liquor companies [2] - The food and beverage ETF (515170.SH) holds a 17.89% weight in Guizhou Moutai, covering other premium liquor brands, with a total weight of nearly 60% [2] - The food and beverage ETF (515170.SH) is an accessible investment tool for individual investors looking to position themselves in leading liquor companies at lower price levels [2]

张瑜团队判断：2026年是物价重视程度进一步提高的一年，或在供需两端发力，促进物价合理回升。其 中供给端主要体现在优化竞争秩序、重点行业产能治理、规范地方招商引资行为等。 华创证券研究所副所长张瑜解读经济工作会议通稿时指出：经济工作会议中与物价相关的表述包 括，"国内供强需弱矛盾突出""持续扩大内需、优化供给"；"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为 货币政策的重要考量"；"促进粮食等重要农产品价格保持在合理水平"。 12月12日早盘，食品饮料板块拉升，食品饮料ETF（515170.SH）涨超1%，成分股方面，贵州茅台在 1400元附近企稳反弹，最新报1420元，五粮液、泸州老窖涨超1%，酒鬼酒涨超5%，舍得酒业涨超3%。 ...

Group 1 - The external environment is assessed positively, with exports growing by 5.4% from January to November, indicating resilience against external shocks [1][13] - The upcoming year is expected to maintain high export growth due to dual resilience in market share and external demand [1][13] Group 2 - The policy approach is shifting from extraordinary measures to more conventional methods, emphasizing the effectiveness of existing policies rather than relying on new incremental policies [2][14] - The overall economic cycle has improved, with indicators like M1 and corporate deposits showing recovery, suggesting a gradual move away from extraordinary policy dependence [2][14] Group 3 - Risk management pressure has decreased, with significant risks in real estate and hidden debts being largely controlled, allowing the government to focus on other areas like reform and opening up [3][15] Group 4 - Fiscal support is expected to decrease, with budget growth rates for 2023-2025 set at 3.3%, 5.1%, and 5.1%, respectively, aligning closely with economic targets [4][5][16] - The fiscal deficit is projected to remain around 4% in 2026, indicating a stabilization rather than an increase in fiscal deficit rates [5][17] Group 5 - The economy is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with strong supply but weak demand, leading to challenges in domestic consumption and employment [6][18] - The nominal GDP growth is anticipated to rise from 4.0% in 2025 to approximately 4.5% in 2026, with CPI expected at around 0.7% and PPI at -1.4% [6][18] Group 6 - The midstream manufacturing sector is expected to be the most stable and promising area, benefiting from external demand resilience and domestic supply constraints [7][19]

◎记者 陈芳 11月，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比上涨0.7%，为2024年3月以来最高，核心CPI同比上涨1.2%； 工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比连续第二个月上涨0.1%，部分行业价格呈现积极变化。国家统计 局12月10日公布的数据显示，物价进一步企稳，需求稳步修复。 食品价格同比由降转涨 11月，CPI同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比10月扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月以来最高。国家统计局城市司首 席统计师董莉娟表示，CPI同比涨幅扩大主要是食品价格由降转涨拉动。 食品价格由10月同比下降2.9%转为11月同比上涨0.2%。其中，鲜菜价格由10月同比下降7.3%转为11月 同比上涨14.5%，为连续同比下降9个月后首次转涨。 11月，PPI同比下降2.2%，降幅比10月扩大0.1个百分点。董莉娟表示，PPI同比涨幅扩大主要受到上年 同期对比基数走高影响。 "国际贸易条件改善，重点行业产能治理推进，部分制造业产品价格降幅收窄。"广开首席产业研究院首 席金融研究员王运金对上海证券报记者表示。 11月，光伏设备及元器件制造、锂离子电池制造价格的同比降幅比10月分别收窄2个和0.7个百分点，已 连续多 ...

Economic Growth Outlook - The GDP growth target for China in 2026 is expected to remain around 5%[4] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth is projected to be 53.5% in 2025, up from 44.5% in 2024[26] - The anticipated growth rate of social retail sales is around 4% in 2026, with final consumption expenditure growth expected to exceed 5%[51] Export Performance - China's export share is projected to continue its upward trend, with an expected growth rate of 4-5% in 2026[21] - As of July 2025, China's export share reached 15.1%, up from 14.9% in 2024, indicating strong global competitiveness[14] Investment Stability - Real estate investment is expected to stabilize, with a projected decline of around 10.2% in 2026, a significant improvement from previous years[55] - Infrastructure investment growth is anticipated to rebound significantly in 2026, supported by new policy tools and long-term special bonds[74] Inflation and Price Trends - CPI is expected to rise to around 0.6% in 2026, driven by food prices, while PPI is projected to recover from a decline of -2.8% in 2025[95][116] - The core CPI is expected to maintain a higher level of around 0.8-1% in 2026, reflecting improved consumer confidence and spending[110] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The narrow deficit ratio is projected to increase to 4-4.3% in 2026, with a special bond issuance of approximately 1.5 trillion yuan[127] - New local special bonds are expected to be in the range of 5-5.5 trillion yuan, marking an increase from 2025[128]

Economic Outlook - China is expected to maintain an economic growth target of around 5% for 2026, consistent with 2025, reflecting the central government's focus on stabilizing growth and promoting recovery [1] Consumption - From January to October 2025, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, showing a slowdown from a peak of 5% in May [2] - The job market is showing signs of recovery, with the urban unemployment rate dropping to 5.10% in October 2025, and is expected to approach 5.0% [2] - The retail sales growth for 2026 is projected to be around 4.20%, indicating a moderate recovery despite structural pressures [2] Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to October 2025 was 408.914 billion yuan, down 1.7% year-on-year, primarily due to a significant decline in infrastructure and real estate investment [3] - Infrastructure investment is expected to rebound significantly in 2026, with a projected growth rate of approximately 5.50% [3] - Manufacturing investment is anticipated to recover to a growth rate of around 5.55% in 2026, supported by improved capacity utilization [3] Real Estate - Real estate investment is at a historical low, slightly above levels during the public health crisis, primarily due to weak sales [4] - The year-on-year growth rate of housing prices is showing signs of marginal recovery, with new residential prices down 2.60% and second-hand prices down 5.40% in October 2025 [4] - The decline in real estate investment is expected to narrow to -10.65% in 2026 [4] Exports - Total exports from January to October 2025 reached 221.146 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, despite uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies [5] - Exports to non-U.S. regions have shown strong growth, with significant increases to Africa (26.10%), the EU (7.50%), ASEAN (14.30%), and India (12.30%) [6] - The global economic recovery and potential easing of tariffs are expected to provide a more stable environment for exports in 2026 [5][6] Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year in October 2025, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.1% [7] - Both CPI and PPI are expected to improve, with PPI potentially turning positive in the first half of 2026 [7] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, with a projected deficit rate increase from 4% to 4.5% in 2026, alongside an increase in special bond issuance [8] - Monetary policy is anticipated to remain moderately loose, with potential interest rate cuts of 10-20 basis points in 2026 [8] Overall Economic Assessment - The Chinese economy is projected to achieve around 5% growth in 2026, supported by policy measures, external demand recovery, and improving price levels [9]