1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, silver showed high - level fluctuations. London silver once fell below the 10 - day moving average during the week, then stabilized on Friday and tested the $80 mark, eventually closing at $79.9. The Shanghai silver main contract closed at 19,438 yuan/kg in the night session on Saturday morning. The weekly gains of London silver and Shanghai silver were both 9.7%, and the cumulative gains in 2025 were 148% and 129% respectively [8]. - The US manufacturing PMI in December was 47.9, lower than expected. The number of non - farm payrolls in December increased by 50,000, lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was significantly revised downward, but the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4% [8]. - The US CPI in November increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, strengthening the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [8]. - Last week, the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond decreased by 1 basis point, and the US dollar index continued to rebound slightly [8]. - In 2025, the global silver market's supply - demand gap is expected to exceed 100 million ounces, and the market is in a supply shortage state for the fifth consecutive year. The inventory of LBMA has dropped to a historical low, and the tradable silver inventory is tight [8]. - The silver market is expected to remain strong in the medium and long term under the triple - drive of strategic resources, financial attributes, and industrial attributes. It is recommended to hold the AG2604 long position in the medium term [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Viewpoints and Strategies - **Silver Trends**: London silver and Shanghai silver had significant weekly and cumulative gains in 2025. London silver showed high - level fluctuations and finally closed at $79.9, while Shanghai silver closed at 19,438 yuan/kg [8]. - **US Economy**: The manufacturing PMI was weak, non - farm payrolls were lower than expected with previous data revisions, but the unemployment rate dropped [8]. - **Inflation**: US CPI and core CPI in November were lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [8]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased by 1 basis point, and the US dollar index rebounded slightly [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: There is a large supply - demand gap in the silver market, and the tradable inventory is tight. The position of the largest silver ETF decreased week - on - week [8]. - **Spreads**: The spread between domestic and foreign silver futures reached a high of 1,762 yuan and finally closed at 820 yuan, and the gold - silver ratio in London spot reached 56.43 [8]. - **Viewpoint and Strategy**: The silver market is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, and it is recommended to hold the AG2604 long position [9]. Futures and Spot Markets - Multiple charts show the trends of COMEX silver futures, London silver spot, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver futures, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver [13][17]. US Economy - Charts present data on US GDP, PMI, non - farm payrolls, and unemployment rate [24][25]. Inflation - Charts display US CPI/PCE and core CPI/PCE data [30]. Interest Rates - Charts show short - term and medium - long - term US Treasury bond yields and real interest rates [37][41]. Fundamentals - A table shows the global silver supply - demand balance sheet from 2016 to 2025F, including supply (mining production, recycling, etc.) and demand (industrial, jewelry, etc.) [45]. - Charts show silver ETF positions, COMEX, LBMA, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventories [46][49][53]. US Dollar Index and Exchange Rates - Charts show the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, and other exchange rates such as pound - US dollar and US dollar - Canadian dollar [59][62][67]. Silver Spreads - Charts show the trends of domestic and foreign silver futures, spreads between domestic and foreign silver, silver basis, and gold - silver ratio [76][84][89].

Summary of Silver Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The silver market is experiencing a widening supply-demand gap, expected to reach over 3,600 kilograms by 2025, primarily due to supply constraints from by-product mining characteristics and increasing demand from the photovoltaic industry and emerging sectors like new energy [2][4][5] - China's adjustment of silver export policies to a licensing system aims to ensure the security and cost advantages of domestic supply chains for photovoltaic and new energy vehicles, stabilizing key metal supplies [2][9][12] - The U.S. has classified silver as a critical mineral for national security, emphasizing its importance for defense, energy, and high-tech industries, reflecting a focus on resource control amid international competition [2][10] - India is promoting the financialization of silver to activate private reserves and support domestic jewelry manufacturing, contrasting with the resource control strategies of China and the U.S. [2][11] Key Market Insights - Recent silver prices showed a slight decline at the end of December 2025 but rebounded in early January 2026, with futures prices nearing 20,000 yuan. The market remains in a state of supply shortage, influenced by production characteristics and policy-driven market sentiment [3][4] - The silver supply has been consistently less than demand for four to five years, with a projected demand gap of over 3,600 kilograms in 2025. The supply growth rate is limited to 1%-2% annually due to the rigid nature of by-product mining [4][5] - The Shanghai silver market is currently priced higher than the CME, but this price difference may not be sustainable in the long term due to sufficient domestic demand and increased speculative costs [2][13] Financial and Trading Dynamics - The silver market's trading structure includes upstream miners, midstream smelters and traders, and downstream industrial producers. The Shenzhen Shui Bei market is a hub for retail investors, influencing market sentiment but posing risks due to low regulatory oversight [6][7] - There are concerns about the accuracy of reported silver inventories, with many traders lacking actual stock but having the ability to mobilize silver resources, necessitating personal judgment for assessing information authenticity [8] Policy Implications - China's export licensing system for silver aims to secure strategic resource management, ensuring that domestic consumption, which exceeds production, is prioritized [9][12] - The U.S. recognizes silver's strategic importance and has implemented measures to protect its availability for critical industries, reflecting a broader trend of resource control [10] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The silver market is influenced by macroeconomic policies and market sentiment, with potential for price corrections in the short term due to heightened investment emotions. A return to previous price levels around 12,000 yuan is anticipated, but long-term trends suggest upward movement due to geopolitical tensions and energy issues [18][21] - The potential for copper to replace silver in photovoltaic applications is being explored, but consensus on this shift has not yet been reached [19] - Silver ETF holdings show strong correlation with gold, indicating that gold price movements will significantly impact the silver market [20] Conclusion - The silver market is characterized by a persistent supply-demand imbalance, influenced by policy changes and market sentiment. While short-term corrections may occur, the long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing demand from key industries and geopolitical factors [4][18][21]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货白银周报 年底行情激化，白银价格屡创新高 20251228 作者：曾可 交易咨询号：Z0022773 从业资格号：F03118676 0769-22116880 审核：黄忠夏，从业资格号：F0285615,交易咨询号：Z0010771 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 白银走势：上周白银走势非常强劲，连续刷新历史新高。伦敦银周内连续上攻，将历史新高刷新至79.405，最终收报 79.329；沪银主力合约将新高刷新至19215，截至周六凌晨收盘收于19204元 ...

哈喽，大家好，我是今天这篇财经评论，梳理了白银价格为何在圣诞假期突然加速上涨至72美元？ 12月24日前后，在传统流动性偏弱的圣诞行情中，白银却走出了一轮极不寻常的加速上涨行情。 与黄金偏重避险与货币属性不同，白银的价格弹性更高，既受宏观金融环境影响，也高度依赖市场结构 和实物供需。 在当前全球降息预期强化、美元指数走弱的背景下，白银的"高贝塔"属性被明显放大，成为资金博取弹 性的首选工具。 资金正在押注"非常态行情" 如果说价格是结果，那么资金流向则是过程。 近期，全球白银ETF出现了持续且集中的净流入。数据显示，仅一周内，以实物白银为支撑的ETF就新 增持仓约1530万盎司，接近今年第二高水平。 中国海关数据显示，10月白银出口量超过660吨，创下历史新高，其中相当一部分流向伦敦市场。尽管 近期开始补库，但速度仍难以完全覆盖潜在的交割需求。 三大交易所的"结构性紧张" 全球规模最大的白银ETF——SLV，单周净流入资金接近10亿美元，罕见地超过了同期黄金ETF的吸金 规模。 与此同时，衍生品市场的风险偏好也明显升温。COMEX微型白银期货的成交量升至10月以来高位，期 权市场中，2025年2月到期、执行价 ...

Group 1 - The spot silver price has risen above $65 per ounce, marking one of the strongest rebounds in commodities for 2025 [1] - The silver market has experienced a structural shortage for the fifth consecutive year due to limited mining output and increasing consumption in renewable energy, electronics, and other industrial sectors [1] - Analysts from Guosen Futures highlight that the rapid development of industries such as new energy and electronics is expanding the industrial applications of silver, intensifying concerns over the supply-demand gap [1] Group 2 - Everbright Futures anticipates the upcoming non-farm payroll data to guide future Federal Reserve monetary policy, maintaining a cautiously optimistic outlook on silver [1] - Despite expectations of a return to the gold-silver ratio, silver continues to show strength with recent highs indicating a potential squeeze in positions [1] - According to Zhongjin, the international trade situation in 2025 is expected to disrupt the global macro environment, benefiting from a certainty premium amid uncertainty, leading to increases in both gold and silver prices [1] Group 3 - China Silver Group (00815) has seen its stock price rise over 4%, currently trading at 0.7 HKD with a trading volume of 5.3 million HKD [2]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a structural shortage for the fifth consecutive year, driven by limited mining output and increasing consumption in renewable energy, electronics, and other industrial sectors [5]. Group 1: Company Performance - China Silver Group (00815) saw its stock price rise by 4.41% to HKD 0.71, with a trading volume of HKD 10.27 million [5]. Group 2: Market Trends - Spot silver prices have surpassed USD 65 per ounce, marking one of the strongest rebounds in commodities for 2025 [5]. - Analysts from Guoxin Futures highlight that the rapid development of new energy and electronics industries is expanding silver's industrial applications, intensifying concerns over supply-demand gaps [5]. - Everbright Futures notes that upcoming non-farm payroll data may guide future Federal Reserve monetary policy, maintaining a cautiously optimistic outlook on silver [5]. Group 3: Price Dynamics - The market is witnessing a strong performance in precious metals, with silver prices rising faster than gold, contrasting with the previous three years where demand was primarily driven by cyclical purchases from European and American ETFs [5]. - According to Zhongjin, the international trade situation in 2025 is expected to disrupt the global macro environment, benefiting from a certainty premium amid uncertainty, leading to simultaneous increases in gold and silver prices [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise in silver prices, which have increased by 116% this year, compared to a 61% increase in gold prices, highlighting the growing interest and potential risks associated with silver investments [5][9]. Market Performance - As of December 11, 2023, silver prices reached a historic high of $62.88 per ounce, marking a substantial increase from earlier in the year [9]. - Silver concept stocks have shown an average increase of 78.12% this year, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The primary driver behind the surge in silver prices is the widening global supply-demand gap, with industrial demand accounting for approximately 50% of silver's usage [12]. - The Oxford Economics report indicates that sectors such as solar energy, electric vehicles, and data centers are expected to drive silver demand growth, with a projected supply shortfall of 4,633 tons in 2024 [14][15]. - Major silver-producing countries have faced supply constraints due to production declines, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [15]. Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points has contributed to a favorable environment for precious metals, including silver, as it enhances the appeal of safe-haven assets [15][16]. - Analysts suggest that the silver market's smaller size and higher sensitivity to dollar fluctuations make it more volatile compared to gold, which could lead to further price increases if supply issues persist [16][17]. Investment Accessibility - Ordinary investors face challenges in accessing silver investments due to limited channels and higher costs associated with physical silver [19][20]. - The only directly traded silver product in China is a silver futures LOF, while other options include purchasing physical silver through banks or trading platforms [19][20]. Investor Sentiment - Despite the strong performance of silver, there is growing caution among investors regarding the potential risks associated with high volatility and the possibility of a price correction [21]. - Some investors are opting to wait for a price pullback before increasing their positions in silver, reflecting a cautious approach to the current market conditions [21].

Core Viewpoint - Silver has emerged as a leading investment asset in 2023, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 120%, particularly accelerating in the second half of the year [3][4]. Price Movements - As of December 11, 2023, the spot silver price surpassed $62 per ounce, reaching a high of $62.884 per ounce, marking a new historical peak [1][2]. - COMEX silver also broke through $63 per ounce, hitting a peak of $63.25 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver contract reached a high of 14,655 yuan per kilogram, with an increase of over 5% [1][4]. Market Drivers - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75% has been a significant factor, marking the third consecutive rate cut this year, totaling a 75 basis point reduction [4]. - Analysts suggest that strong industrial demand for silver, particularly in sectors like AI servers, photovoltaics, and electric vehicles, is driving prices higher [5][6]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The Silver Institute predicts a structural supply deficit of approximately 95 million ounces in the global silver market by 2025, continuing a trend of supply shortages for the fifth consecutive year [8]. - Demand from the photovoltaic industry is expected to significantly increase, with the International Energy Agency forecasting an addition of 4000 GW of solar capacity from 2024 to 2030, potentially raising silver demand by nearly 150 million ounces annually [8]. Future Market Expectations - Analysts anticipate that silver prices will continue to experience strong fluctuations due to investor sensitivity to news and data, especially after a substantial increase of nearly 120% this year [8]. - Despite potential short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for silver remains bullish, supported by macroeconomic factors such as geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in global economic policies [9].

12月9日，白银长期的供需缺口正在发酵成结构性价格驱动力，Mhmarkets迈汇认为，2025 年以来的实 物短缺并非偶发，而是多年供应萎缩与需求扩张叠加的结果。当投资需求猛增，原本就偏紧的市场更易 被放大，从而形成价格突破的重要背景。 白银在初夏突破 35 美元，被视为市场情绪反转的关键点。过去十年矿供给减少约 8000 万盎司，总供应 规模仅约 10 亿盎司，在贵金属中显得十分紧凑。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，持续减少的矿供给意味着行业 未能发现或投产足够的新矿，大型银矿稀缺的结构在未来几年难以改善。与此同时，电子制造、光伏发 电、电动车、AI 数据中心等行业的渗透率不断提升，使工业需求形成长期拉力。需求不断扩展，而供 应跟不上，成为白银基本面的核心矛盾。 另一方面，行业内部的资源错配也加剧了未来的供应压力。过去几年，部分矿企在白银低价期调整重 心，转向更易盈利的金矿项目，使得白银资产布局被弱化。今年出现的几起并购动作说明行业正试图重 新夺回白银资源，但优质矿产的稀缺性决定了其恢复速度较慢。审批、融资与建设周期基本都在 5–10 年区间，这意味着供给无法快速响应价格上升。 库存端同样难言宽松。伦敦、纽约以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the silver market, particularly highlighting the impact of the CME trading halt on silver prices, which surged significantly compared to gold. It emphasizes the structural weaknesses in the silver market and the underlying supply-demand dynamics that could sustain bullish trends in silver prices moving forward [6][9][29]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The CME trading halt led to a liquidity crisis, causing silver prices to spike by 6.49%, while gold only saw a modest increase of 1.29% [6][7]. - Silver's market depth is significantly weaker than that of gold, making it more susceptible to liquidity shocks. The global silver ETF inventory is less than 30,000 tons, compared to over 2,100 tons for gold [10][19]. - The silver market's "directional force" was already bullish prior to the CME halt, which amplified the upward price movement when trading resumed [12][29]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Over 50% of silver demand comes from industrial applications, with a projected supply deficit of approximately 0.95 to 1.18 billion ounces in late 2025 [19][24]. - The supply of silver is expected to grow only about 1% in 2025, while demand remains strong, leading to a continuous supply-demand imbalance [24][28]. - Recent disruptions in copper mining operations are anticipated to further reduce silver supply, as silver is often a byproduct of copper mining [24][28]. Group 3: Financial Attributes - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has strengthened silver's financial appeal, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in December 2025 [22][23]. - The article notes that silver behaves like "half gold and half copper," benefiting from both its monetary and industrial properties [20][21]. Group 4: Inventory and Price Volatility - The decline in deliverable silver inventory has exacerbated price volatility, with major markets like Shanghai and COMEX reporting near historical lows in silver stock levels [28]. - The article highlights that the shrinking inventory of deliverable silver is a critical factor influencing price elasticity, as it directly affects the market's ability to buffer supply-demand shocks [26][28]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article concludes that the bullish trend in silver is likely to continue due to persistent supply shortages and favorable financial conditions, although it warns of potential risks if supply increases or demand falls short of expectations [29][30].