Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a continued global oil supply surplus in the next two years due to increased production from oil-producing countries and slowing demand growth, with a projected surplus of 4.09 million barrels per day by 2026 [1] - The IEA's report indicates a significant imbalance in the global oil market, with supply growth outpacing demand growth [1] - The IEA's annual World Energy Outlook report suggests that the trend of increasing global oil and gas demand may persist until 2050 [1] Supply Dynamics - As of October, global oil production has increased by 6.2 million barrels per day since the beginning of the year, with contributions from both OPEC and non-OPEC countries [2] - Saudi Arabia, as the largest oil producer in OPEC, contributed an increase of 1.5 million barrels per day, while Russia's contribution was limited to 120,000 barrels per day due to sanctions and attacks on energy facilities [2] - Despite impending sanctions on Russian oil companies, Russian oil exports have not yet been significantly impacted [2] Inventory Levels - Global oil inventories have risen sharply, reaching nearly 8 billion barrels as of September, the highest level since July 2021, primarily due to increased storage of oil transported by sea [2] - The trend of rising oil inventories is expected to continue [2] Forecast Discrepancies - OPEC's monthly oil market report predicts a much lower surplus of only 20,000 barrels per day by 2026, contrasting sharply with the IEA's forecast [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The market previously had differences on the issue of oil surplus, but with the release of institutional reports, a consensus on future surplus is gradually reached. Since Q3, oil supplies in the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia have increased significantly, and the problem of oil inventory accumulation will become more prominent in the future [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light - sweet crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $2.55 to close at $58.49 per barrel, a decline of 4.18%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for January delivery fell $2.45 to close at $62.71 per barrel, a decline of 3.76%. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 3.39% at 451 yuan per barrel [1]. - As of the week ending November 12, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 21.181 million barrels, an increase of 3.204 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventories increased by 1.074 million barrels to 7.877 million barrels, medium distillate inventories decreased by 0.222 million barrels to 3.012 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventories increased by 2.352 million barrels to 11.012 million barrels [1]. - Crude oil futures extended losses during U.S. trading hours. After OPEC+ predicted an increase in competitors' supply, market concerns about oversupply intensified. The organization maintained its forecasts for oil demand this year and next but raised its estimate of non - OPEC+ production for next year. The IEA said in its annual report that under the existing policy scenario, oil and gas demand may continue to grow until 2050. However, progress in the U.S. government's reopening and the prospect of further interest rate cuts this year limited further price losses of crude oil [1]. - The OPEC monthly report shows that the global crude oil demand growth rate forecast for 2025 is 1.3 million barrels per day (previously estimated at 1.3 million barrels per day), and for 2026 is 1.38 million barrels per day (previously estimated at 1.38 million barrels per day). Despite the OPEC+ production increase agreement, the average crude oil production of OPEC+ in October was 43.02 million barrels per day, a decrease of 73,000 barrels per day from September [1]. - UK Foreign Secretary Cooper announced on the 11th a plan to phase - out the provision of shipping, insurance and other services for Russian LNG exports by UK companies starting in 2026, aiming to cut off Russia's funding from energy exports and end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. This is a new round of sanctions against Russia's energy sector following last month's sanctions on Russian oil companies [1]. Investment Logic - The market previously had differences on the oil surplus problem. With the release of institutional reports, a consensus on future surplus is gradually reached. Although market differentiation due to sanctions still exists, oil supplies in the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia have increased significantly since Q3, and the problem of oil inventory accumulation will be more prominent in the future [2]. Strategy - In the short term, oil prices will fluctuate weakly. In the medium term, a short - position allocation is recommended, and short the calendar spread (long far - month contracts and short near - month contracts, for Brent or WTI) [3].

Group 1 - Oil prices continued to decline after a significant drop, with WTI crude falling to $58 per barrel and Brent crude below $63 per barrel, indicating a potential oil surplus [1][3] - OPEC reported that global oil supply exceeded demand in Q3, and the EIA raised its U.S. production forecast for next year from 13.51 million barrels to 13.58 million barrels [1][3] - The WTI spot price spread turned to a futures premium for the first time since February, signaling a bearish pricing pattern due to ample supply [1] Group 2 - OPEC's forecast indicates that global oil supply will match demand next year, contrasting with previous predictions of a supply shortage by 2026 [3] - The IEA's latest report suggests that oil and gas demand may continue to grow until 2050, with oil consumption projected to increase by 13% from 2024 to 2050 under the current policy scenario [3] - Analysts noted that an oversupply of crude oil is suppressing price increases, and OPEC+ agreed to pause production increases in Q1 of next year after gradually lifting production cuts since August [3] Group 3 - The reopening of the U.S. government may boost consumer confidence and economic activity, potentially stimulating oil demand [4]

格隆汇11月12日｜欧佩克将其对全球石油市场的估计从赤字转为过剩，原因在于美国产量超出预期，而 欧佩克本身也增加了供应。该组织在其最新的月度报告中表示，在此期间，世界石油产量每天超出了需 求50万桶，而一个月前的估计为短缺40万桶。周三发布的报告还指出，欧佩克+联盟上季度产出的原油 量超过了估计所需的量。沙特阿拉伯一直在引导该联盟加速恢复今年被暂停的供应，以求夺回全球市场 份额。但该联盟成员本月首次表现出放缓该战略的迹象，同意在2026年第一季度暂停进一步增产。该组 织援引季节性需求放缓为由，尽管许多分析师警告全球市场将出现显著的供应过剩。展望2026年，欧佩 克的数据确实显示将出现盈余，尽管规模比其他预测机构更为温和。 ...

由于美国石油产量超出预期，而欧佩克自身也加大了供应量，因此欧佩克将其对第三季度全球石油市场的预期从供应短缺转为供应过剩。 欧佩克在最新月度报告中表示，该季度全球石油产量日均超出需求50万桶，而一个月前其预估的是日均短缺40万桶。 该组织位于维也纳的秘书处将三季度非欧佩克+的供应预期上调了89万桶/日，其中超半数增幅来自美国。 这份周三发布的报告还显示，欧佩克+上季度的原油产量超过了其预估的市场需求水平。今年，沙特主导该联盟加快恢复此前暂停的产量，以夺回全球市场 份额。欧佩克+自4月份以来已将其产量目标提高了约290万桶/日，约占全球供应量的2.7%。 周三早些时候，欧佩克秘书处还对国际能源署（IEA）的立场转变表示赞赏。IEA在年度长期报告中承认，石油需求可能在未来数十年内持续增长。 欧佩克表示，近年来一直预测本十年内石油消费将停止增长的IEA，终于"直面现实"。 目前参与供应调整的8个欧佩克+成员国，以及由22个国家组成的完整联盟，将于11月30日举行会议，审议相关产量政策。 本月，该联盟主要成员国首次显现放缓这一策略的迹象，同意在2026年第一季度暂停进一步增产。欧佩克称此举是出于季节性需求放缓，但许多分 ...

克普勒数据（Kpler）显示，今年以来，信实工业有限公司（Reliance Industries Ltd.）、巴拉特石油公司（Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd.）、印度斯坦石油公司（Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd.）、芒格洛尔炼油石化公司（Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd.）和HPCL-米塔尔能源公司（HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd.）这五大炼油商，占印度俄罗斯原油进口量的三分之二。 受西方制裁与美印贸易谈判影响，印度12月大幅缩减俄罗斯原油采购，五大核心炼油商未下任何订单。 印度已缩减12月到港的俄罗斯原油采购量，这表明西方制裁和美印贸易谈判正对其采购模式产生重大影响。 据知情人士透露，印度五大核心炼油商尚未为下月下达任何俄罗斯原油订单。通常情况下，下月原油交易需在当月10日前完 成。 作为全球第三大石油进口国，印度此次采购变动发生在特朗普8月将所有印度进口商品关税翻倍至50%、并于上月制裁俄罗斯两 大石油生产商——俄罗斯石油公司（Rosneft PJSC）和卢克石油公司（Lukoil PJSC） ...

| 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：年底或仍有深度调整 | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 海外服务业数据 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 中国炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 亚太各类油品库存 | 基差 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 赵旭意 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020751 日期：2025年11月9日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint 2 观点综述 01 本周原油观点：年底或仍有深度调整 供应 当前供应侧的核心特征是 "主动收 ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its oil supply growth forecast for this year and expects this trend to continue into next year, indicating a potential oversupply in the oil market despite low demand [1] Supply Forecast - The IEA predicts that oil supply will increase by 3 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2025, up from a previous forecast of 2.7 million bpd [1] - The IEA also forecasts that global oil demand will grow by 710,000 bpd in 2025, which is a downward revision of 30,000 bpd from earlier estimates [1] - For 2026, global oil demand is expected to increase by 2.4 million bpd [1] Demand Outlook - The IEA indicates that oil consumption will remain subdued in the latter part of 2025 and into 2026 due to a challenging macroeconomic environment and the electrification of transportation [1] - The pace of energy transition is anticipated to be faster than previously predicted by OPEC and other institutions [1] OPEC's Perspective - OPEC's recent monthly report predicts that oil demand growth for this year will reach 1.3 million bpd, nearly double the IEA's forecast [1] Current Market Conditions - The IEA acknowledges that the global oil market is currently experiencing an oversupply, with September's global oil supply increasing by 5.6 million bpd year-on-year, including a 3.1 million bpd increase from OPEC+ [1] - The IEA now expects next year's supply to exceed demand by approximately 4 million bpd, an increase from the previous estimate of 3.3 million bpd [1]

尽管欧佩克+计划在2026年第一季度暂停增产，但市场依旧担心石油供应过剩和亚洲工厂数据疲软，原 油高位震荡，WTI原油在61美元附近上下震荡，最终收涨0.26%，报60.82美元/桶；布伦特原油最终收涨 0.27%，报64.65美元/桶。 受产出下降和需求疲软影响，美国10月份制造业活动连续第八个月萎缩，美国供应管理学会（ISM）制 造业指数下降0.4，至48.7。 美财政估计第四季度借款5690亿美元，较7月预估减少210亿美元。 11月4日 资讯分享 周一，现货黄金日内围绕4000美元关口来回震荡，最终收跌0.07%，收报4000.44美元/盎司。 美联储理事米兰表示美联储可能通过一系列50个基点的降息达到中性利率，但并不需要75个基点的降 息；芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比认为通胀数据仍令人担忧，降息门槛已经升高；理事库克指出12月有可能 降息，但将取决于后续新出炉的信息。旧金山联储主席戴利对12月利率决定持开放态度。 欧佩克：预计短期内全球石油需求不会见顶；预计今年石油需求将增长130万桶/日。 ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has decided to increase oil supply by 137,000 barrels per day starting December, while also announcing a pause in production increases from January to March 2026, marking the first break in their continuous production increase since April 2023 [1] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ will increase daily oil supply by 137,000 barrels starting December [1] - The decision to pause production increases from January to March 2026 is significant as it breaks the continuous increase trend established since April 2023 [1] - OPEC+ aims to maintain market stability based on the current healthy oil market fundamentals and stable global economic outlook [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Concerns - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with Brent crude futures rising above $65 per barrel and WTI crude futures above $61 per barrel [1] - There are growing concerns about an oversupply in the international oil market, with OECD oil inventories rising to 2.878 billion barrels, exceeding the five-year average by 100 million barrels [1] - The International Energy Agency predicts a potential record oil surplus in 2026 [1] Group 3: Future Considerations - Market participants should focus on when OPEC+ might initiate production cuts due to inventory pressures rather than whether they will complete the new round of production increases [2] - Major oil-producing countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, have the capacity to reduce production by over 2 million barrels if needed [2] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on November 30 will review production levels for 2026 [2]