OPEC+本周末的会议是在全球石油市场正面临地缘政治不确定性加剧的背景下召开的。受特朗普政府 封锁施压，委内瑞拉国有炼油厂陷入储油空间耗尽、库存持续积压的困境，该国国家石油公司(PDVSA) 已于12月28日启动境内部分油井的关停工作。俄罗斯的石油基础设施和油轮一直是乌克兰的袭击目标， 后者在11月底的一次袭击导致黑海地区里海管道联盟(CPC)的一个重要出口码头受损，导致哈萨克斯坦 大部分石油出口受阻。委内瑞拉与哈萨克斯坦均为OPEC+成员国。此外，在也门政治局势升级的情况 下，主导OPEC+的沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋这两个成员国之间的关系也出现了罕见的公开紧张。 值得一提的是，华尔街对于2026年全球石油需求前景普遍持悲观态度，预计明年将呈现出显著的供应过 剩。根据美国银行、花旗集团、高盛集团、摩根大通和摩根士丹利的预测平均值，目前交易价格接近62 美元/桶的布伦特原油期货价格将在2026年进一步下滑至约59美元/桶。 （原标题：供应过剩前景压倒地缘风险 OPEC+本周料重申明年一季度暂停增产） 智通财经APP获悉，据三位消息人士透露，在全球石油供应过剩迹象日益明显的背景下，OPEC+在本 周末开会时预计将坚持其 ...

据三位代表透露，鉴于全球石油供应过剩的迹象日益明显，欧佩克+在本周末开会时预计将坚持原定的 暂停增产计划。 由沙特和俄罗斯牵头的主要成员国将于明年1月4日举行月度视频会议，并重新审视一项决定——该决定 最早于11月做出，旨在继今年早些时候迅速恢复生产后，在明年第一季度停止进一步增加供应。 虽然与制裁俄罗斯和委内瑞拉相关的地缘政治风险问题对近期的价格下跌起到了一点刹车作用，但值得 注意的是，市场在很大程度上已经能够无视诸如美国总统特朗普最近扣押委内瑞拉石油货物，以及他声 称将一再这样做（这相当于部分封锁）等事态发展。 美国在10月份宣布对俄罗斯主要石油公司俄罗斯石油公司（Rosneft）和卢克石油公司（Lukoil）实施加 强制裁，也未能扭转油价趋势，因为市场推测，虽然贸易模式会发生转变且俄罗斯的收入会受到影响， 但实际出口量不会受到太大削减。 这些变量发生转变的可能性主要倾向于看跌方向。委内瑞拉目前的日产量仅为100万桶左右。关于俄罗 斯，市场更担心的是可能达成的和平协议和取消制裁，而不是实际看到出口量大幅下降。 除此之外，2026年石油过剩的规模尚存疑问。更看涨的分析师正确地指出，国际能源署（IEA）的预测 ...

调价周期内，供应过剩预期加剧主导国际油价震荡下降，伦敦布伦特、纽约WTI原油期货价格最低降至每桶59美元、55美元的年内低点。国际能源署 （IEA）最新月度报告预测，2026年全球石油需求将增长87万桶/日，全球石油供应增长245万桶/日，供给增幅显著大于需求。多家市场机构也普遍判断2026 年将维持供应过剩局面，其中，巴克莱银行预计日均供应过剩约190万桶，德意志银行预计将超过200万桶/日。 央视财经（记者 平凡 张娅芳）记者今天从国家发展改革委了解到，12月22日24时国内成品油调价窗口开启，这也是本年度最后一次调价，受到国际油价下 调影响，国内汽、柴油价格将下调。 12月22日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格每吨分别下调170元和165元。全国平均来看：92号汽油每升下调0.13元，95号汽油每升下调0.14元，0号柴油每升下调 0.14元。央视财经记者给您算了笔账，用92号汽油加满50升油箱将少花6.5元。 2025年全年成品油零售调价一共经历25轮调价窗口期，其中累计7次上调，12次下调，6轮搁浅。卓创资讯高级分析师孟鹏表示："标准汽油累计下调915元/ 吨，标准柴油累计下调880元/吨，折算升价92号 ...

和闭猎报 12.16 13:12:15 周= 迪拜原油:1-2月合约价差负2美元, 2026年或大量过剩 【12月16日中东迪拜原油现供应过剩加剧迹象】12月16日，中东原油基准迪拜原油供应过剩加剧，其远 期曲线迅速走弱。亚洲交易商和炼油商以其为基准交易。 知情交易员和经纪商透露，1月和2月合约价 差周二早盘一度为每桶负2美元，呈现期货溢价看跌模式。 原油产量提高引发全球石油供应过剩担忧， 拖累主要定价中心原油期货价格。布伦特原油期货接近每桶50美元。 国际能源署预测，2026年将出现 大量过剩。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【12月16日中东迪拜原油现供应过剩加剧迹象】 12 月16日,中东原油基准迪拜原油供应过剩加剧,其 远期曲线迅速走弱。亚洲交易商和炼油商以其为基 准交易。知情交易员和经纪商透露,1月和2月合约 价差周二早盘一度为每桶负2美元,呈现期货溢价看 跌模式。原油产量提高引发全球石油供应过剩担 忧,拖累主要定价中心原油期货价格。布伦特原油 期货接近每桶50美元。国际能源署预测,2026年将 出现大量过剩。 本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自 ...

Group 1 - The focus of the market is on the key U.S. economic data to be released on December 16, which includes the non-farm payroll report that was delayed due to the federal government shutdown [3] - Spot gold initially rose over 1% during the day but later saw a significant reduction in gains as some investors took profits, indicating a decrease in gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset due to easing geopolitical tensions [1][3] - International oil prices continued to decline, primarily driven by strong expectations of a global oil supply surplus by 2026, despite some support from disruptions in Venezuelan oil exports due to tensions with the U.S. [3] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market experienced a broad decline as investors awaited a series of key economic data releases, including non-farm payrolls, retail sales, and inflation reports, to assess the economic outlook and the Federal Reserve's future policy direction [3] - Tesla's stock price increased as CEO Elon Musk announced that the company is testing driverless taxi services, indicating potential advancements in autonomous vehicle technology [3]

石化周报 美国降息、地缘发酵，油价受供应过剩担忧影响表现疲软 glmszqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 13 日 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601857.SH | 中国石油 | 9.53 | 0.90 | 0.87 | 0.89 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 推荐 | | 600938.SH | 中国海油 | 28.40 | 2.90 | 2.60 | 2.68 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 推荐 | | 600028.SH | 中国石化 | 5.78 | 0.41 | 0.31 | 0.34 | 14 | 19 | 17 | 推荐 | | 603619.SH | 中曼石油 | 22.05 | 1.76 | 1.48 | 1.99 | 13 | ...

| 模 | | --- | | S | | 1 | | 72 1 | | D | | 1 | | 1 | | V 2 | | 原油 | 女女女 | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2025年12月12日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 美国正准备扣押更多运输委内瑞拉石油的船只,行动将针对可能运输过其他受制裁原油的油轮,该扣押行动或 导致至少三批共计600万桶委内瑞拉原油运输被暂停。 IEA月报下调了创纪录石油供应过刺预测，供应过利规模 略有收窄,但仍处于高位。油价再次进入供应过剩与地缘、宏观因素博弈阶段。尽管地缘犹动升温，但其对油 价的提振作用具有阶段性特点,且提振力度似乎逐渐低于此前表现。中长期来看,油价核心驱动仍是供应过 剩, 推动油价中枢持续下移。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 近期燃料油价格主要跟随因她缘冲突与供需博弈而波动的原油成本瑞运行。就 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is facing multi - dimensional challenges. Geopolitical factors such as the recurring Russia - Ukraine conflict and the situation in Venezuela, along with the prominent contradiction of supply surplus during the off - season of demand, lead to the repeated and volatile operation of oil prices. All varieties in the energy and chemical sector are expected to show an oscillating trend [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices continued to decline. The WTI January contract closed down $0.86 at $57.60 per barrel, a 1.47% drop; the Brent February contract closed down $0.93 at $61.28 per barrel, a 1.49% drop; SC2601 closed at 435.6 yuan per barrel, down 5.6 yuan per barrel, a 1.27% decline. OPEC+ increased production slightly in November, and both OPEC and IEA made adjustments to their supply and demand forecasts for next year. The oil market is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.57% to 2382 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2602 fell 0.67% to 2986 yuan per ton. The Asian low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure, and it is expected that the current supply - driven market fundamentals will continue until January next year. The absolute prices of FU and LU are expected to remain low and oscillate [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.92% to 2960 yuan per ton. The social inventory rate decreased, the refinery inventory level increased, and the plant operating rate decreased. The winter storage policy of refineries is gradually being implemented, and it is predicted that the winter storage price will likely fall to a relatively low level in the past five years. The asphalt price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 rose 1.04% to 4664 yuan per ton; EG2601 fell 2.25% to 3599 yuan per ton. PX is expected to face pressure at the end of the year. TA prices are expected to decline with cost pressure, and ethylene glycol prices are under pressure with long - term inventory accumulation risks [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main natural rubber contract RU2601 fell 30 yuan per ton to 15185 yuan per ton; the NR main contract remained unchanged at 12270 yuan per ton; the butadiene rubber BR main contract rose 105 yuan per ton to 10710 yuan per ton. The improvement of overseas production area weather, the impact of border conflicts on rubber tapping, and limited demand support led to a slight rebound in rubber futures prices [5][7]. - **Methanol**: Iranian plant shutdowns will lead to a decline in arrivals from mid - December to January. Port inventories are expected to enter the destocking stage from mid - December this year to early January next year, but the time may be postponed. Methanol prices have an upper limit, and it is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [7]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply will remain high, and downstream demand will weaken. However, due to the low valuation, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [7][9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Some devices are planned to reduce production this week, and domestic real - estate construction will slow down. The overall fundamentals are bearish, but the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom due to the repair of the basis [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical varieties on December 11, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC reported that the OPEC+ alliance slightly increased production in November, and maintained the forecast of relatively strong demand growth for next year. The production in November was 43.06 million barrels per day, an increase of 43,000 barrels per day from the previous month. The average demand for OPEC+ crude oil in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be 42.6 million barrels per day, and 43 million barrels per day for the whole year [12]. - The IEA lowered its forecast of the global oil supply surplus for next year for the first time since May. The global oil supply will exceed demand by 3.84 million barrels per day, lower than the previous forecast of 4.09 million barrels per day. The expected increase in global oil supply next year is 2.4 million barrels per day, and the expected increase in demand is 860,000 barrels per day, 90,000 barrels per day higher than the previous forecast. The EIA also raised the forecast of oil demand growth in 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 830,000 barrels per day [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical varieties from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc [15][16]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various varieties, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc [33]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts for various varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc [46]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread charts between different varieties, such as crude oil's internal and external markets, fuel oil's high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc [63]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The production profit charts of LLDPE and PP are presented [71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [76][77][78][79]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [81].

国际能源署（IEA）在其12月11日发布的月度报告中，下调了今明两年全球石油市场的供应过剩预期。 这是该机构自今年5月欧佩克+开始增产以来，首次下调相关预期。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：电报君 IEA表示，预期的调整反映了多个关键因素，包括欧佩克+近期决定在2026年第一季度暂停增产，以及 全球石油消费前景的改善。该机构略微上调了今明两年的全球原油需求增长预期，分别从先前的日均 78.8万桶和77万桶上调至日均83万桶和86万桶。 尽管预期有所下调，但IEA指出，2026年预计的供应过剩量仍将创下历史新高。该机构在报告中表示， 全球原油供需平衡仍显示大量供应过剩，且已观测到库存持续上升。（市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文 为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。） 报告显示，IEA将2026年全球石油供应过剩的预测值从上月的每日404.6万桶下调至381.5万桶，降幅为 每日23.1万桶。与此同时，该机构也将今年全球原油供应增长预期从日均310万桶下调至300万桶，并将 明年的供应增长预期从日均250万桶下调至240万桶。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-12原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2601： 1.基本面：六位知情人士表示，继本周扣押一艘油轮之后，美国正准备拦截更多运输委内瑞拉石油的 船只，以加大对委内瑞拉总统马杜罗的压力；石油输出国组织（OPEC）在月度报告中称，OPEC+产油 国联盟在11月小幅提高产量，因八名成员继续推进新一轮增产，该组织同时维持对明年需求相对强劲 增长的预测；国际能源署（IEA）自5月以来首次下调了对明年全球石油供应过剩的预测，指出由于全 球经济强劲以及来自受制裁国家的供应下降，需求前景更加乐观；中性 2.基差：12月11日，阿曼原油现货价为62.03美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋 ...