Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for Brent and WTI crude oil prices for 2025, aligning closely with forward prices, and projects an average price of $56 per barrel for 2026 for Brent and $52 per barrel for WTI [1] Summary by Category - **Price Forecasts** - Goldman Sachs predicts an average price of $56 per barrel for Brent and $52 per barrel for WTI in 2026 [1] - **Supply Predictions** - The forecast for oil supply surplus in 2026 has been raised to 1.9 million barrels per day, up from a previous estimate of 1.7 million barrels per day [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with absolute prices falling on Friday. At the end of the peak season for refinery operations in summer, the inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged. The spreads of Brent and WTI crude oil contracts strengthened slightly, while the spread of Dubai crude oil contracts strengthened significantly. Refining margins in Europe and the United States declined slightly, the crack spread of gasoline in the United States strengthened, and the crack spread of diesel in Europe fluctuated. The balance sheet for the fourth quarter is expected to have a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day, and the surplus is expected to be between 1.8 million and 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. Global oil inventories have increased slightly, commercial crude oil inventories in the United States have decreased seasonally, with absolute inventories at a historically low level for the same period, Cushing inventories have decreased, and gasoline and diesel inventories in the United States have decreased. Institutions estimate that refinery maintenance in October globally will exceed previous levels (in Europe and Africa), and the spreads of crude oil contracts are expected to face pressure. Recently, the absolute price of crude oil has been fluctuating. Pay attention to the transition between the off - peak and peak seasons. The market is concerned about the medium - and long - term surplus pattern, and the absolute price is under downward pressure. It is expected that the price center in the fourth quarter will fall to $60 per barrel. Due to the adjustment of the autumn maintenance expectations in Europe, the crack spread forecast of diesel in Europe for the fourth quarter is raised [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily News - Market expects OPEC+ to pause production increase at this week's meeting. After completing the plan to restore the production cut capacity of 2.2 million barrels per day one year ahead of schedule, OPEC+ members have sent mixed signals about the next step. Despite stable recent demand, the IEA points out that the global oil market will face a significant supply surplus by the end of the year. Some analysts predict that OPEC+ may be forced to cut production next year to avoid a serious supply surplus [3] - Saudi Arabia and Iraq have suspended oil supply to Indian refiner Nayara. After the two major Gulf oil - producing countries stopped supplying, Nayara's crude oil imports in August were completely dependent on Russia. Sanctions have caused payment difficulties for Nayara when purchasing crude oil from SOMO [4] - HSBC maintains its Q4 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast at $65 per barrel. If OECD region inventories increase or OPEC+ continues to increase supply, the risk will be on the downside. As summer ends and demand declines, the market supply surplus is expected to intensify in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 [4] - Houthi rebels claim to have attacked an oil tanker in the northern Red Sea. In retaliation for Israel's air strike on Sanaa, the Houthi rebels said they would escalate military attacks on Israel and shipping blockades [4][5] 2. Regional Fundamentals - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, US crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day [5] - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, US domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day [5] - EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41% [5] - EIA report: The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.093 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.34% [5] - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.06% [5] - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.497 million barrels per day, a decrease of 423,000 barrels per day from the previous week [5] - US EIA gasoline inventory for the week ending August 15 was - 2.72 million barrels, expected - 915,000 barrels, previous value - 792,000 barrels [5] - US EIA refined oil inventory for the week ending August 15 was 2.343 million barrels, expected 928,000 barrels, previous value 714,000 barrels [5] - From August 22 - 29, the operating rate of major refineries decreased slightly, while that of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, and both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries weakened, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries declined month - on - month [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintained a medium - to long - term bearish view on oil prices, supported by major institutions' reports on large supply and US inflation data [7] - Short - term market would focus on the Trump - Putin meeting, and a potential cyclone in the US Gulf could push up oil prices in the short term, providing better short - selling opportunities [7] Summary by Directory 01 Weekly Viewpoints - Last week's view was to maintain a medium - to long - term bearish view, and thought short - term oil prices might be slightly undervalued [7] - This week, oil prices continued to decline. Concerns about Russian oil disturbances eased, and OPEC+ production increase pressure was magnified [7] - Key factors included weakening month - spreads, stable cracking, major institutions' reports on supply increase, OPEC+ production increase, and the impact of the Trump - Putin meeting [7] 02 Weekly Highlights - Global near - month spreads were generally weak, with Western and Eastern markets showing signs of slowing supply - demand [9][11] - Global cracking was generally stable, with New York and Northwest Europe cracking Brent relatively weaker [13] - Gasoline cracking stabilized, but its upside was limited. Diesel cracking was weak, and its slowdown might impact the fundamentals [15] - Refining economy declined, especially in Asia, which might affect future refinery operating rates [17] - Global diesel inventories were low, mainly due to raw material issues, and were expected to improve before the autumn - winter consumption peak [20] - Major energy institutions' August reports showed that IEA and EIA significantly increased supply expectations, while OPEC continued to support production increase [22] - OPEC+ 8 - country production showed that most countries well - executed production plans, and many were over - producing [36][37] - The Trump - Putin meeting could cause market disturbances, but it was difficult to change the overall supply - dominated market pattern in the long run [40] - US macro - economic data indicated a potential stagflation situation, and core inflation was stubborn [42] - This year's North American hurricane activity was expected to be 60% above average, and a potential cyclone might affect oil production and refining [44] 03 Price, Spread, and Cracking - Provided data on crude oil futures and spot trends, including Brent and WTI [48] - Presented information on WTI and Brent crude oil positions, futures structures, month - spreads, cross - market futures and spot spreads [50][53][56] - Showed Saudi OSP data for different regions and different oil grades [72] - Provided data on refined product futures and spot prices, as well as cracking data in different regions [77][79][82] 04 Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - Presented data on global, non - OPEC, and OPEC crude oil supply, including production, capacity, and rig numbers [98][101][104] - Showed data on global, OECD, and non - OECD crude oil demand [120][123][126] - Provided data on crude oil inventories in the US, OECD, and other regions [130][133][135] - Presented EIA balance sheet data, showing supply, consumption, and balance changes [150]

Gold Market - Federal Reserve officials Goolsbee and Bostic indicated that if inflation is moving towards the 2% target, there is a possibility of an early rate cut, but conservative comments have limited gold price increases [1] - The market is currently awaiting developments from the upcoming US-Russia talks, with expectations of "low-key commitments and over-delivery" [1] - Technical analysis shows a small upward movement in gold prices, with support at $3325 and resistance at $3375 [1] Oil Market - IEA's monthly report predicts a record oversupply of global oil in the coming year, with refinery runs nearing historical highs at 85.6 million barrels per day [2] - The forecast for global oil supply growth has been revised upwards for both 2025 and 2026, indicating a continued expansion in production [2] - Political developments from the US-Russia summit could lead to significant price volatility, with potential for lower oil prices if constructive agreements are reached [2] - Technical analysis indicates a downward trend in oil prices, with resistance at $63.40 and support at $61.20 [2] US Dollar Index - President Trump is considering 3-4 candidates to succeed Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair, while Powell defends the Fed's rate policy [3] - Treasury Secretary Becerra suggests that current interest rates are too restrictive and advocates for a series of rate cuts, starting with a 50 basis point reduction in September [3] - Technical analysis shows the dollar index trading between 97 and 100, with support at 97.50 and resistance at 98.10 [3] Nasdaq Index - The Nasdaq index faced resistance at the 24000 level, with a small upward movement noted [4] - Technical analysis indicates an upward trend, with prices above the 60/120 day moving averages, and a focus on a potential pullback to around 23620 [4] Copper Market - The price range for copper has expanded, with resistance at $4.50 leading to a downward movement [6] - Technical analysis shows a bearish trend, suggesting short positions with a target near $4.30 [6] Market Overview - The Trump administration is considering candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair [7] - Statements from Trump regarding potential consequences for Russia if conflicts do not cease [7] - Becerra's comments on the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in September and the need for lower interest rates [7] - Russia's extension of oil production cuts into 2025 [7] - IEA's forecast of a record oversupply in global oil for the next year [7]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an EIA crude oil weekly data report from Green大华 Futures Co., Ltd. dated August 14, 2025 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - OPEC raised the 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.38 million barrels per day and slightly increased the 2025 global economic growth rate to 3.0% due to global economic resilience [1] - EIA is more cautious about demand and prices, predicting lower global daily demand in 2025 and 2026 than OPEC and lowering Brent oil price forecasts [1] - IEA expects a record - high oil supply surplus next year, and with OPEC + gradually increasing production, there is a large downward pressure on oil prices [1] Group 4: Data Summary Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory as of August 8, 2025, was 426,698 thousand barrels, an increase of 3,036 thousand barrels (0.72%) from August 1 [2] - Cushing crude oil inventory was 23,051 thousand barrels, an increase of 45 thousand barrels (0.20%) [2] - US gasoline inventory was 226,290 thousand barrels, a decrease of 792 thousand barrels (- 0.35%) [2] - US distillate oil inventory was 113,685 thousand barrels, an increase of 714 thousand barrels (0.63%) [2] - US total oil product inventory was 1,267,347 thousand barrels, an increase of 7,522 thousand barrels (0.60%) [2] - US strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 403,202 thousand barrels, an increase of 226 thousand barrels (0.06%) [2] Production and Trade Data - US refinery utilization rate was 96.4%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points (- 0.52%) [2] - US crude oil production was 13,327 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 43 thousand barrels per day (0.32%) [2] - US crude oil imports were 6,920 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 958 thousand barrels per day (16.07%) [2] - US crude oil exports were 3,577 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 259 thousand barrels per day (7.81%) [2]

Report Overview - The report is about the international crude oil market on August 14, 2025, providing price information, industry news, and data updates [1]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Hold long positions in the positive spread of crude oil as appropriate and pay attention to the meeting between Russian and US leaders [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Futures Prices - WTI September crude oil futures closed down $0.52/barrel, a 0.82% decline, at $62.65/barrel [1]. - Brent October crude oil futures closed down $0.49/barrel, a 0.74% decline, at $65.63/barrel [1]. - SC2510 crude oil futures closed down 4.50 yuan/barrel, a 0.92% decline, at 485.70 yuan/barrel [1]. Industry News - US President Trump told Zelensky and allies that he would not discuss territorial division with Putin this week [1]. - Trump appointed David Rosner as the chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission [1]. - Trump will propose to jointly develop rare - earth mineral resources in Alaska with Putin during the Russia - US summit and lift the export ban on Russian aircraft parts [1]. - Trump said Russia would face consequences if it did not stop the war [1]. - The 4 - week average supply of petroleum products reached the highest level since August 2023 [1]. - France, the UK, and Germany's foreign ministers said they would activate the sanctions "restoration mechanism" against Iran if a satisfactory solution was not found by the end of August [1]. US Oil Data (Week Ending August 8) - Crude oil exports increased by 259,000 barrels/day to 3.577 million barrels/day [1]. - Domestic crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels to 13.327 million barrels/day [1]. - Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.036 million barrels to 427 million barrels, a 0.72% increase [1]. - The four - week average supply of US petroleum products was 21.159 million barrels/day, a 2.89% increase year - on - year [1]. - Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 226,000 barrels to 403.2 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [1]. - Commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.92 million barrels/day, an increase of 958,000 barrels/day from the previous week [1]. - EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 45,000 barrels, compared with 453,000 barrels in the previous value [1]. Russia's Production Cut Plan - Russia announced a production cut of 85,000 barrels/day per month from July to November and an additional 9,000 barrels/day in December [1]. IEA Monthly Report Forecasts - Global oil supply is expected to have a record surplus next year [1]. - Global crude oil refinery runs will approach the highest level in history in August, reaching 85.6 million barrels/day [1]. - The average total demand in 2025 is predicted to be 103.7 million barrels/day [1]. - The 2025 global oil supply growth forecast was raised from 2.1 million barrels/day to 2.5 million barrels/day, and the 2026 forecast was raised from 1.3 million barrels/day to 1.9 million barrels/day [1]. - The 2025 global oil demand growth forecast was lowered from 704,000 barrels/day to 685,000 barrels/day, and the 2026 forecast was lowered from 722,000 barrels/day to 699,000 barrels/day [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2].

Core Viewpoint - Saudi Aramco has reported a decline in profits for the tenth consecutive quarter, primarily due to falling oil prices outweighing the benefits of increased production [1] Financial Performance - In Q2, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 19% year-on-year to 85.63 billion riyals (approximately 22.8 billion USD), falling short of analyst expectations [1] - Free cash flow dropped by 20% to 15.2 billion USD, insufficient to cover dividend payments [2] - Total dividends for Q2 amounted to 21.36 billion USD, down from 31 billion USD in the same period last year [2] Debt and Cash Flow - Net debt increased from 24.7 billion USD at the end of Q1 to 30.8 billion USD [2] - The company's debt-to-equity ratio rose from 5.3% to 6.5%, although it remains lower than that of major Western oil companies [5] Production and Market Outlook - Saudi Aramco has been increasing production, with plans to reach nearly 10 million barrels per day by September, an increase of 1 million barrels since April [5] - The CEO expressed confidence in oil demand growth, expecting an increase of over 2 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half [5] - However, market observers anticipate continued weakness due to OPEC+ production increases, rising supply from the Americas, and slowing global economic growth, with the IEA predicting a supply surplus of 2 million barrels per day in Q4 [5] Comparative Performance - Saudi Aramco's stock performance has lagged behind major Western oil companies, with ExxonMobil and Chevron exceeding analyst expectations in Q2 [6]

Group 1 - OPEC+ plans to significantly increase oil production in September to exit the latest round of production cuts amid growing supply surplus concerns in the global market [1][2] - On August 1, international oil prices fell sharply, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices dropping nearly 3%, and Brent crude futures falling below $70 per barrel [1][5] - The increase in production comes after major oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and the UAE, agreed to raise output by an average of 548,000 barrels per day in September [2] Group 2 - The recent decision by OPEC+ to increase production occurs against a backdrop of potential U.S. sanctions on Russian oil exports, which could conflict with U.S. efforts to lower oil prices [8] - Analysts warn that the market may enter a phase of significant oil supply surplus starting in October, urging OPEC+ to be cautious about further increasing production [8]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has agreed to significantly increase oil production, marking a strategic shift from defending oil prices to boosting supply [2][4]. Group 1: Production Increase - OPEC+ will raise oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, completing its current supply recovery plan a year early [1][2]. - Eight major oil-producing countries within OPEC+ had previously announced a voluntary reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day, which has been extended multiple times until March 2025 [1]. Group 2: Market Context - The decision to increase production comes amid a backdrop of declining international oil prices, with ICE Brent crude falling over 3% and WTI crude down 2.89% [3][4]. - The increase in production is seen as a response to potential sanctions on Russian oil exports, which could lead to higher oil prices, conflicting with U.S. policy goals [4][5]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the market will enter a phase of significant oil oversupply starting in October, urging OPEC+ to be cautious about further increases [6].

Group 1 - Oil traders are facing a tense situation as oil prices remain around $70 per barrel despite warnings of a potential market weakness from late this year until 2026 [1] - Energy giant Total (TTE.US) has warned of an oversupply issue as OPEC+ gradually lifts production cuts, while global economic growth slowdown is dragging down demand [1][4] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) have raised their forecasts for oil supply surplus next year, with IEA predicting a surplus of approximately 2 million barrels per day [1][4] Group 2 - A potential oversupply could help alleviate inflation and impact high-cost oil producers, which may please U.S. President Trump, who has called for lower oil prices [4] - Current key oil storage inventories remain low, reflecting a tight supply market, and refining margins for crude oil are significantly above seasonal norms, supporting ongoing demand [4] - The U.S. government forecasts a global oil supply increase of about 2.1 million barrels per day in Q4 compared to Q1, marking the largest quarterly increase since February [4] Group 3 - Signs of strong demand persist, with Vitol Group reporting a steady rise in jet fuel demand and U.S. weekly crude oil demand data reaching a new high for the year [7] - Historical data shows that demand forecasts are often revised upwards, suggesting that the anticipated oversupply may be smaller than expected [7] - From 2012 to 2024, IEA's demand forecasts have been adjusted upwards by an average of about 500,000 barrels per day [7] Group 4 - Despite the strong demand, JPMorgan's global commodities strategy head Natasha Kaneva warns that a significant oversupply may become evident once summer demand weakens [9] - Kaneva emphasizes that supply is increasing and inventory growth will eventually be reflected in visible stocks in OECD countries, such as the U.S., which are not yet priced into the market [9]