Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated at high levels due to geopolitical events. Although Trump's stance has become more rational, the risk of military intervention cannot be completely ruled out. Fundamentally, global on - land oil inventories are accumulating in the off - season, while the total waterborne inventory has decreased month - on - month but is higher year - on - year. The North Sea market has tightened recently, and the Dubai market is loose, with the WTI and Brent markets decoupled. In terms of refinery profits, the sharp rise in European natural gas has strengthened the cracking of European diesel, and the overall profits of European and American refineries are under downward pressure due to the rising crude oil prices. In the short term, attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the absolute price center in the first quarter will remain high [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily News - Ukraine's DTEK power company reported that its energy facilities in Odessa were "severely" damaged in a Russian night attack [3]. - International oil prices fell as the risk of supply disruption decreased. As of 21:58 Beijing time on January 19, the March Brent crude oil futures contract dropped $0.37 or 0.58% to $63.76 per barrel, and the US crude oil futures contract fell $0.28 or 0.47% to $59.16 per barrel. The market is also concerned about the tariff threat from Greenland and the potential trade war between the US and Europe, as well as the risk of damage to Russian infrastructure and distillate supply due to cold weather [4]. - Russia's seaborne oil product exports in December increased by 17% compared to November. Angola's crude oil exports in March are expected to be 1.09 million barrels per day. Oil exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) in December decreased from 5.09 million tons in November to 3.98 million tons. The restart of the No. 6 unit of Japan's Kashiwazaki - Kariwa Nuclear Power Station may be postponed due to a malfunction in the control rod extraction prevention function [4][5]. 2. Inventory - According to the EIA report, in the week ending January 9, US crude oil exports increased by 43,000 barrels per day to 4.306 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 58,000 barrels to 13.753 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.391 million barrels to 422 million barrels (a 0.81% increase), the four - week average supply of US petroleum products was 19.98 million barrels per day (a 1.14% decrease year - on - year), strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 214,000 barrels to 413.7 million barrels (a 0.05% increase), and commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 7.092 million barrels per day, an increase of 753,000 barrels per day from the previous week [5]. - US EIA gasoline inventories for the week ending January 9 were 8.977 million barrels, higher than the expected 3.565 million barrels and the previous value of 7.702 million barrels. EIA distillate inventories were - 29,000 barrels, lower than the expected 512,000 barrels and the previous value of 5.594 million barrels [5]. 3. Weekly Viewpoints - Oil prices fluctuated at high levels due to geopolitical events this week. Although Trump's attitude has become more rational, the risk of military intervention cannot be fully excluded. Fundamentally, global on - land oil inventories are accumulating in the off - season, the overall waterborne inventory has decreased month - on - month but is higher year - on - year. The North Sea market has tightened recently, and the Dubai market is loose, with the WTI and Brent markets decoupled. In terms of refinery profits, the sharp rise in European natural gas has strengthened the cracking of European diesel, and the overall profits of European and American refineries are under downward pressure due to the rising crude oil prices. In the short term, attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the absolute price center in the first quarter will remain high [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices rebounded this week, and geopolitical risks escalated. The unstable situation in Iran continued over the weekend. Trump received a briefing on military strike plans against Iran but has not made a final decision on authorizing the strike. Israel is on high alert for the possibility of US intervention in Iran, and Iran has warned that if attacked, it will strike back at Israel and the US. The Iranian president has shown a willingness to meet with protest groups, indicating a tendency towards reconciliation. If the US strikes Iran, oil prices may surge due to geopolitical risks. From a fundamental perspective, oil inventories increased this week, the Dubai monthly spread strengthened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking margins strengthened while diesel cracking margins fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, and the price center in the first quarter is expected to be high and volatile [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Data - **International Crude Oil Prices**: From January 9th to 15th, WTI prices decreased by $2.83, BRENT prices decreased by $2.76, and DUBAI prices decreased by $1.29. Other related price spreads and differentials also showed various changes [3]. - **Domestic and Other Related Prices**: From January 9th to 15th, SC prices decreased by $0.60, OMAN prices decreased by $2.16, and the SC - BRT spread increased by $2.73. Domestic gasoline prices increased by 40 yuan, and the domestic gasoline - BRT spread increased by 204 yuan. Other related prices and spreads also changed accordingly [3]. 3.2 Daily News - **Iran Situation**: Iraq has emphasized its opposition to the use of its territory as a springboard for attacks on Iran. The US Treasury has announced new sanctions against Iran, and at least one US aircraft carrier is being deployed to the Middle East. The US has lowered the security alert level at a Qatari air base. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has requested Trump to postpone the attack on Iran to allow Israel more time to prepare for possible retaliation. Trump has stated that the Iranian government may collapse due to unrest but that "any regime can fail." The White House has said that Trump is closely monitoring the situation in Iran and retains all options on the Iran issue. The Iranian ambassador to Pakistan has said that Trump has informed Iran that he has no intention of launching an attack and has asked Tehran to exercise restraint. The President of the European Commission, von der Leyen, has called for increased sanctions against Iran. Trump is delaying the decision on striking Iran, and the White House is consulting internally and with allies on the matter [3][4]. - **Venezuela Oil**: Trafigura, a large commodity trader assigned by Trump to sell Venezuelan oil, is preparing to unload its first batch of cargo after deploying a ship off the coast of Curaçao Island. The arrival of the oil tanker at the Caribbean island marks the next step in the process, and the region is likely to become a transit point for exports [5]. 3.3 Inventory - EIA reports show that in the week ending January 9th, US crude oil exports increased by 43,000 barrels per day to 4.306 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 58,000 barrels to 13.753 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.391 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a 0.81% increase; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 19.98 million barrels per day, a 1.14% decrease compared to the same period last year; the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 214,000 barrels to 413.7 million barrels, a 0.05% increase; and crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 7.092 million barrels per day, an increase of 753,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. US gasoline inventories for the week ending January 9th were 8.977 million barrels, higher than the expected 3.565 million barrels and the previous value of 7.702 million barrels. US refined oil inventories for the same period were - 29,000 barrels, lower than the expected 512,000 barrels and the previous value of 5.594 million barrels [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil rebounded, and geopolitical risks escalated. Over the weekend, the unstable situation in Iran continued. Trump received a briefing on military strike options against Iran but hasn't made a final decision on authorizing a strike. Israel is on high alert for the possibility of U.S. intervention in Iran, and Iran has warned that it will strike Israel and the U.S. if attacked. The Iranian president expressed willingness to meet with protest groups, showing a conciliatory tendency. If the U.S. launches a strike on Iran, oil prices may surge due to geopolitical risks. From a fundamental perspective, oil inventories increased this week, the Dubai monthly spread strengthened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the price center in the first quarter is expected to be high in the short - term [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - From January 8th to 14th, 2026, WTI crude oil rose from $57.76 to $62.02, an increase of $0.87; BRENT crude oil rose from $61.99 to $66.52, an increase of $1.05; DUBAI crude oil rose from $60.08 to $62.58, an increase of $0.80. Other related products also showed corresponding price changes [3] - From January 8th to 14th, 2026, SC crude oil decreased by $0.10, OMAN crude oil increased by $0.19, and the domestic gasoline price increased by 40 yuan. Other related domestic products also had price changes [3] - From January 8th to 14th, 2026, the price of Japanese naphtha CFR was not fully updated, the Singapore fuel oil 380CST had incomplete data, the main contract of SHFE FU increased by 125, the main contract of SHFE BU increased by 28, HH natural gas increased by $0.110, and BFO increased by $1.75 [3] 3.2 Daily News - Flightradar24 reported that Iran issued a navigation notice, restricting flights from entering its airspace without permission, with an effective period of slightly over two hours [3] - Trump said that Iran's "killing" has stopped, hinting at a possible suspension of military action against Iran. International oil prices dropped by 4% in the short - term. Trump also said that he will observe the situation before making a decision on military action against Iran [4] 3.3 Inventory - According to the EIA report, in the week ending January 9th, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 43,000 barrels per day to 4.306 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 58,000 barrels to 13.753 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.391 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a 0.81% increase [4] - The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 19.98 million barrels per day, a 1.14% decrease compared to the same period last year; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 214,000 barrels to 413.7 million barrels, a 0.05% increase [4][5] - In the week ending January 9th, U.S. commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 7.092 million barrels per day, an increase of 753,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week; EIA gasoline inventory was 8.977 million barrels (expected 3.565 million barrels, previous value 7.702 million barrels); EIA refined oil inventory was - 29,000 barrels (expected 512,000 barrels, previous value 5.594 million barrels) [5][6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - This week, crude oil rebounded and geopolitical risks escalated. Over the weekend, the unstable situation in Iran continued. Trump received a briefing on military strike plans against Iran but has not made a final decision on authorizing a strike. If the US launches a strike on Iran, oil prices may surge due to geopolitical risks. Fundamentally, oil inventories increased this week, the Dubai monthly spread strengthened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the price center in the first quarter is expected to be high and volatile [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data - From January 7 - 13, 2026, WTI increased from $55.99 to $61.15, BRENT from $59.96 to $65.47, and DUBAI from $58.35 to $61.78. Other related products also showed various price changes [3]. - For example, SC increased by 8.10, OMAN by 1.14, and domestic gasoline increased by 20.00 during the same period [3]. b. Daily News - US media reported that the White House is weighing military options against Iran, but Trump's private attitude is uncertain. Political allies warned of the risks of getting involved in another overseas conflict [3]. - The API crude oil inventory for the week ending January 9 was 527.8 million barrels, far exceeding the expected -223.8 million barrels [3]. - US Energy Secretary Wright said that the US is willing to cooperate with Iran in the oil sector if the Iranian regime collapses [3]. c. Inventory - According to the EIA report for the week of January 2, US crude oil exports increased by 82.3 million barrels per day to 426.3 million barrels per day [3]. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 1.6 million barrels to 1381.1 million barrels per day [3]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 383.2 million barrels to 4.19 billion barrels, a decrease of 0.91% [3]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 1987.1 million barrels per day, a 1.86% decrease compared to the same period last year [3]. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 24.5 million barrels to 4.135 billion barrels, an increase of 0.06% [3]. - US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 633.9 million barrels per day, an increase of 138.6 million barrels per day compared to the previous week [3].

Core Viewpoint - The oil market continues to rise despite geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, with WTI crude surpassing $60 and Brent crude exceeding $65, driven by concerns over potential military actions and U.S. sanctions [4][6][20] Market Performance - WTI crude oil futures closed at $61.15, up $1.65 (2.77%), while Brent crude oil futures closed at $65.47, up $1.60 (2.51%) [7][21] - The Chinese SC crude oil futures rose by 2.90% to 450.40 yuan [3][21] Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. has ordered citizens to evacuate Iran, and France has withdrawn non-essential embassy staff, raising fears of military escalation [4][6] - The geopolitical risk premium is more pronounced in the global benchmark (Brent) compared to the Middle Eastern physical market, with Brent's premium over Dubai crude reaching its highest level since July [4][9][18] EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook - The EIA's report indicates that U.S. crude oil production is expected to decline after reaching a record of 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025, with a slight decrease of less than 1% in 2026 and 2% in 2027 [6][22] - WTI prices are forecasted to average $52.21 per barrel in 2026 and $50.36 in 2027, reflecting a downward trend due to oversupply [6][20][22] Inventory and Supply Dynamics - API reported a significant increase in crude oil inventories by 5.278 million barrels, contrary to expectations of a decrease, indicating a supply surplus [6][20] - Global liquid fuel production is projected to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026, driven by OPEC+ production growth [22][24] Regional Price Disparities - The price of Dubai crude has weakened while Oman and Murban crude prices have strengthened, indicating widening price differentials within the region [9][23] - Major traders are actively engaging in spot market transactions, with prices concentrated between $61.70 and $61.84 per barrel, reflecting a vibrant trading environment [9][23] Future Considerations - Close monitoring of Iran's floating oil inventory and Venezuela's actual export flows will be crucial for understanding price dynamics between hemispheres [9][24] - The market is characterized by high volatility and uncertainty, with recommendations to manage risk effectively while identifying potential opportunities [6][20]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View During the Christmas holiday, trading volume in the overseas market was light, and crude oil prices declined on Friday night. The market is focused on geopolitical situations, with Iran warning Israel and the US not to launch attacks. EIA weekly reports and ARA inventory updates are on hold. Global oil inventories are decreasing, while Singapore's oil inventories are increasing. Gasoline and diesel cracks are oscillating weakly, with a large fundamental surplus. If geopolitical risks subside, the surplus in the first quarter will be four times the seasonal level. Short - term spreads and absolute prices should be under - allocated [6]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Price Data - From December 22 to December 26, 2025, WTI prices fluctuated from $58.01 to $56.74, BRENT from $62.07 to $60.64, and DUBAI from $62.12 to $61.86. Other related prices such as SC, OMAN, and various refined products also showed different degrees of change [3]. b. Daily News - Hamas claims that Israel has not fulfilled the cease - fire agreement and calls on the US to pressure Israel. Hamas hopes to complete the agreement's terms and enter the second phase, and emphasizes that the future management committee in the Gaza Strip should be composed of Palestinians [3]. - Iranian President warns the US and Israel not to launch new attacks, stating that Iran is stronger now than before the June attacks [4]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky will meet with European leaders after meeting with US President Trump to seek a stronger stance against Russia [4]. c. Inventory - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending December 19 was 239.1 million barrels, compared to the previous value of - 932.2 million barrels. API refined oil inventory was 68.5 million barrels (previous value: 251.1 million barrels), and API gasoline inventory was 109 million barrels (previous value: 483.5 million barrels) [4][5]. - EIA report shows that commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 127.4 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a 0.3% decline. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 24.9 million barrels to 412.2 million barrels, a 0.06% increase. US domestic crude oil production decreased by 1.0 million barrels to 1384.3 million barrels per day. US crude oil exports increased by 65.5 million barrels per day to 466.4 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 652.5 million barrels per day, a decrease of 6.4 million barrels per day from the previous week. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased by 0.82% year - on - year [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week's weekly oil prices closed lower. Trump's order to "block" Venezuelan oil tankers and the geopolitical situation in Venezuela had limited impact on crude oil supply and demand. Global supply and demand remained weak, and the market was in a state of oversupply. In the first quarter, the oversupply was significant, and it was advisable to short - sell the calendar spread and absolute prices [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily News - Iran's natural gas supply interruption caused Iraq to lose about 4500 megawatts of power - generating capacity due to technical issues and increased domestic energy demand in Iran during winter [3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky had a phone call with US envoy Witkoff and Trump's senior advisor Kushner, and the Ukrainian military attacked a Russian refinery with "Storm Shadow" missiles [4] - The early - batch crude oil quota for 2026 was issued with a year - on - year increase, and the expectation of fuel oil feedstock weakened. The market was worried about Venezuelan fuel oil supply due to US sanctions, and the short - term sentiment was dominant [4] 3.2 Inventory - US API crude oil inventory in the week ending December 19 was 239.1 million barrels, with a previous value of - 932.2 million barrels; API refined oil inventory was 68.5 million barrels, with a previous value of 251.1 million barrels; API gasoline inventory was 109 million barrels, with a previous value of 483.5 million barrels [4] - EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 127.4 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a decrease of 0.3% [4] - EIA report: In the week ending December 12, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 24.9 million barrels to 412.2 million barrels, an increase of 0.06% [5] - EIA report: In the week ending December 12, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 1 million barrels to 1384.3 million barrels per day [5] - EIA report: The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 2052.1 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.82% [5] - EIA report: In the week ending December 12, US crude oil exports increased by 65.5 million barrels per day to 466.4 million barrels per day [5] - EIA report: The import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves last week was 652.5 million barrels per day, a decrease of 6.4 million barrels per day compared with the previous week [5] 3.3 Weekly Viewpoints - This week's weekly oil prices closed lower. Trump's order to "block" Venezuelan oil tankers led to an oil price rebound, and geopolitical events such as the Venezuela situation and the Russia - Ukraine conflict continued to occur [5] - Global supply and demand remained weak, and the market was in a state of oversupply. The oil market de - stocked this week, and on Friday, the calendar spreads of the three major crude oil markets rebounded slightly, while the crack spreads of global gasoline and diesel continued to weaken [5] - The US refinery operating rate was at a high level, and the domestic operating rate fluctuated. The oversupply in the fundamentals was confirmed, and the geopolitical situation in Venezuela had limited impact on crude oil supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the Israel - Iran situation [5] - In the first quarter, the oversupply was significant, and it was advisable to short - sell the calendar spread and absolute prices [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated and closed higher. The G7 and the EU considered banning Russian export shipping services instead of the oil price cap. Ukraine attacked a refinery and a small port of Rosneft. The CPC export was disrupted and Kazakhstan's daily oil production declined, leading to a rebound in absolute prices. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased, Saudi Aramco lowered the January selling price of Arab Light crude oil to Asia, and US EIA crude oil and refined product inventories also rose. Recently, the US refinery operating rate recovered above 94%, and the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the US declined. In the short term, the diesel fundamentals are stronger. Attention should be paid to the seasonal regression of the gasoline - diesel price spread. The Brent price range in the fourth quarter is $55 - 65 per barrel, maintaining a high - short strategy, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term as the valuation deviation is not high [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - The Trump administration is considering more tanker - related operations in relation to Venezuela and Iran [3] - Venezuelan President Maduro said Venezuela is ready to "knock out the teeth of the North American empire" if necessary. Trump confirmed that the US seized an oil tanker near Venezuela on December 10 [3][4] 3.2 Inventory - US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending December 5 was - 1.812 million barrels, expected - 2.31 million barrels, and the previous value was 0.574 million barrels [4] - US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week ending December 5 was 0.248 million barrels, and the previous value was 0.25 million barrels [4] - US EIA gasoline inventory for the week ending December 5 was 6.397 million barrels, expected 2.764 million barrels, and the previous value was 4.518 million barrels [4] - US EIA refined oil inventory for the week ending December 5 was 2.502 million barrels, expected 1.943 million barrels, and the previous value was 2.059 million barrels [4] - US EIA Cushing crude oil inventory in Oklahoma for the week ending December 5 was 0.308 million barrels, and the previous value was - 0.457 million barrels [4] - US EIA refinery utilization rate for the week ending December 5 was 94.5%, expected 94.4%, and the previous value was 94.1% [4] 3.3 Weekly View - Oil prices fluctuated and closed higher this week. The G7 and EU's consideration of banning Russian shipping services, Ukraine's attacks, and CPC export disruptions led to a price rebound. Fundamentally, inventories are rising, refinery operating rates are recovering, and crack spreads are falling. The short - term diesel fundamentals are stronger. The fourth - quarter Brent price range is $55 - 65 per barrel, with a high - short strategy and short - term waiting and seeing advised [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses skepticism surrounding the International Energy Agency's (IEA) forecast of a looming oil glut, highlighting discrepancies between projected inventory builds and actual data observed in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Inventory Discrepancies - The IEA projects an inventory build of 800 million barrels in 2023 and 1,200 million barrels in 2024, yet actual inventory data does not reflect this increase [1][3]. - Observed inventory builds in the first half of the year were only 0.5 million barrels per day (mb/d), significantly lower than the expected 1.5 mb/d [5][10]. - The IEA's forecasts may be biased due to human error, leading to potential underestimations of demand outside member countries [4][10]. Group 2: Chinese Inventory Dynamics - Chinese inventories reportedly grew by 110 million barrels from April to August 2023, indicating a significant increase in strategic oil stockpiling [7][13]. - The behavior of government inventory holders, such as China, differs from commercial holders, as they tend to buy and hold oil as a hedge against supply disruptions [12][14]. - The motivations behind China's strategic stockpiling include increasing imports, potential sanctions on Russian oil, and fears of political disputes leading to embargoes [13][15]. Group 3: Future Market Implications - The market surplus is projected to exceed 2 mb/d for 2026, suggesting significant pressure on oil prices in the coming months [10][15]. - If China's strategic purchases cease, it could lead to a rapid shift in market balance, potentially resulting in an inventory surge [14][15]. - A strong global economy and tighter sanctions against oil-producing countries could lead to a market balance that is much tighter than the IEA's projections [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices strengthened again, with Brent crude closing above $68 per barrel. The month - spreads of Brent and WTI crude rebounded, while the Dubai month - spread declined. There is a divergence between crude oil fundamentals and geopolitical sanction risk factors. The global oil inventory decreased slightly, with an absolute level similar to that in 2019 and at a high in the past five years. In the benchmark scenario, there will be a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth - quarter crude oil balance and an expected surplus of 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. Recently, the market has been trading around sanctions and risk - premium concerns, and short - covering has affected the market performance. Attention should be paid to risks before the National Day holiday [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - OPEC+ may approve an oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day at the October meeting as rising oil prices encourage the group to regain market share. OPEC+ has changed its production - cut strategy since April and has increased the quota by over 2.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to about 2.4% of global oil demand. An online meeting of eight member countries will be held on October 5 to decide the production arrangement for November [3] - The substitution ratio of LNG and new energy for diesel consumption exceeds 20%. The sales of LNG and new - energy heavy - duty trucks increased year - on - year, with a substitution volume of 3.86 million tons and a substitution ratio of 20.2%. In August, the terminal consumption of diesel was weak due to high - temperature and rainy weather, and the substitution effect of new - energy and LNG heavy - duty trucks on diesel consumption in logistics has been steadily increasing [4] - An Iraqi oil ministry official said that the resumption of the Iraq - Turkey oil pipeline will increase crude oil exports to nearly 3.6 million barrels per day in the coming days, and Iraq's production and export levels will remain within the OPEC - set quota of 4.2 million barrels per day [4] - The total number of U.S. oil rigs in the week ending September 26 was 424, up from 418 in the previous week [4] - The arbitrage window for U.S. crude oil to Asia may close due to soaring tanker freight rates and lower - priced Middle - East crude oil, which is closer to major global demand regions [5] 2. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending September 19, U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 793,000 barrels per day to 4.484 million barrels per day, while domestic production increased by 19,000 barrels to 13.501 million barrels per day [6] - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 607,000 barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 0.15%. The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 20.466 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.94% [6] - The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 230,000 barrels to 406 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. The U.S. commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.495 million barrels per day, an increase of 803,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [6] - From September 12 to September 18, the operating rate of major refineries fluctuated, while that of Shandong local refineries increased. Domestic gasoline and diesel production and inventory both increased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated and strengthened, while that of local refineries decreased month - on - month [6] 3. Weekly Viewpoint - This week, oil prices strengthened again, with Brent and WTI crude month - spreads rebounding and Dubai month - spread declining. There is a divergence between fundamentals and geopolitical sanction risks. The global oil inventory decreased slightly, and OPEC's net crude oil exports rebounded significantly. The U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased, along with gasoline and diesel inventories. Global refinery profits rebounded again. In the benchmark scenario, there will be a surplus in the crude oil balance in the fourth quarter of 2025 and in 2026 [7]