或由于美联储持续降息预期，叠加长假期间，铜、黄金等大宗商品价格狂飙，今日（10月9日）揽尽有 色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）场内价格盘中飙涨超6.3%，现涨5.85%，刷新上市以来的高 点！实时成交额超8700万元，当前成交额已超前一交易日全天的成交额，交投火热！ ETF放量突破上市高点，或为资金买点信号！截至发稿，有色龙头ETF（159876）获资金实时净申购 6060万份！ 成份股方面，云南铜业、江西铜业、白银有色、四川黄金、山东黄金5股涨停！西部超导涨超15%，铜 陵有色、兴业银锡涨逾9%，赣锋锂业、中金黄金等个股大幅跟涨。 | 【宏观驱动】 | 前金 | 美联储降息周期+地缘扰动引发避险需求+央行增持 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【战略安全】 | 稀土、钨、锡 | 战略金属受益于全球博弈 | | 【政策护航】 | 锂、钴、镖 | "反内卷"逻辑影响,板块迎来估值修复 | | 【供需格局】 | 铜、铝等工业金属 | 新兴产业需求释放+供给增量有限,供需紧平衡 | 值得关注的是，深交所数据显示，上一交易日（9月30日），有色龙头ETF（159876）单日吸金3463万 ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong high-speed rail infrastructure stocks surged significantly, with China Railway rising over 10%, China Metallurgical increasing by 7%, and other companies like Times Electric and China CNR rising over 4% [1] - The recent rise in copper prices is attributed to supply shortages and the logic of a computing power revolution, prompting CITIC Securities to suggest focusing on investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector, including gold, silver, and copper [1] - China Metallurgical's copper-gold project in Pakistan has a design production scale of 12,800 tons of ore per day and an annual smelting capacity of 20,000 tons, producing crude copper [1] Group 2 - The Aynak copper mine project in Afghanistan has a resource volume of 662 million tons, with a copper metal content of 11.08 million tons and an average copper grade of 1.67%, classified as a world-class super-large copper deposit [1] - China Railway currently has five modern mines built through wholly-owned, controlling, or joint ventures both domestically and internationally, with stable production operations in its mineral resources business [1] - Longjiang Securities previously pointed out that there is a focus on the revaluation of mineral resources for China Railway [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong high-speed rail infrastructure stocks surged, with China Railway leading with a rise of over 10%, followed by China Metallurgical with a 7% increase, and other companies like Times Electric and CRRC rising over 4% [1] - The recent increase in copper prices is attributed to supply shortages and the logic of a computing power revolution, prompting CITIC Construction Investment to suggest focusing on investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector, including gold, silver, and copper [1] - China Metallurgical's copper-gold project in Pakistan has a design capacity of 12,800 tons of ore processed daily and an annual smelting capacity of 20,000 tons, producing crude copper [1] Group 2 - The Aynak copper mine project in Afghanistan has a resource volume of 662 million tons, with a copper metal content of 11.08 million tons and an average copper grade of 1.67%, classified as a world-class super-large copper deposit [1] - Changjiang Securities previously noted that China Railway currently has five modern mines invested in, either wholly or partially, both domestically and internationally; the company's mineral resource business operates steadily, and there is a focus on the revaluation of its mineral resources [1] - The stock performance of key companies includes: China Railway (4.190, +8.27%), China Metallurgical (3.090, +6.92%), Times Electric (45.440, +4.36%), CRRC (6.250, +4.17%), and China Railway Construction (5.570, +3.53%) [1]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals like gold and silver, along with cryptocurrencies, have experienced significant price increases during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, driven by various geopolitical and economic factors [1] Group 1: Market Drivers - The surge in international gold prices is primarily attributed to short-term volatility caused by the U.S. government shutdown, political changes in Japan, ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and continuous gold purchases by global central banks [1] - Concerns over the credibility of the U.S. dollar and American sovereign debt, exacerbated by the government shutdown and recession expectations, have led global investors to favor precious metals and Bitcoin [1] Group 2: Commodity Insights - Recent supply shortages and a revolution in computing power have contributed to a notable increase in copper prices [1] - Investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in gold, silver, and copper, are recommended for consideration [1]

4 、马斯克的人工智能初创公司 xAI ，正以一种与芯片采购直接 " 挂钩 " 的创新结构，推进一轮高达 200 亿美元的融资。 此次融资最引人注目的特点是， 英伟达将作为重要的股权投资方参与其中，出资额或达 20 亿美元，且整轮融资的结构都与 xAI 采购英伟达 GPU 的计划深度绑定。 英伟达首席执行官黄 仁勋确认，英伟达已投资 xAI 。黄仁勋表示，他本人在 OpenAI 与 AMD 的交易公开宣布前并不知情。他直言后悔未更早投资 OpenAI ，同时指出 OpenAI 的营收正呈指数级增长。 1 、据中国证券报， A 股市场于 10 月 9 日迎来四季度首个交易日。这个假期，全球金融市场并不平静：海外股市普遍小幅走强，为 A 股提供了积极的外 部环境； 与此同时，国际金价历史性突破 4000 美元 / 盎司关口，彰显出全球资金的避险需求。国内层面，刚刚过去的黄金周展现消费韧性，出行人次与 部分核心消费场景的亮眼数据，为经济基本面注入暖意。 在此背景下，私募人士普遍表示，海外市场走强与国内积极因素叠加，有望共同支撑 A 股后市 表现。 2 、 今日凌晨，美联储公布 9 月会议纪要显示，美联储官员在上个月 ...

Group 1 - US stock market opened higher, with focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve's September monetary policy meeting minutes to be released on October 9, which may provide insights into the internal disagreements regarding interest rate cuts for the year [1] - Gold prices remain strong, with spot gold exceeding $4030, leading to a rise in gold stocks such as Hecla Mining, ELY Gold, and Harmony Gold, all gaining over 3% [1][2] - Nvidia's stock opened up over 1% after CEO Jensen Huang confirmed an investment in Elon Musk's startup xAI, expressing excitement about the deal, which involved a $2 billion equity investment in a funding round that valued xAI at $20 billion [2] Group 2 - The US government shutdown is impacting various sectors, with air traffic control personnel taking sick leave, resulting in over 3000 flight delays across the country, affecting major airports [2] - A report from CITIC Securities indicates that precious metals like gold and silver are expected to rise further due to the US government shutdown, while copper prices are also strengthening amid a backdrop of a computing revolution [3] - The A-share market is anticipated to maintain an upward trend, supported by stable economic fundamentals, continuous inflow of new capital, and improved US-China relations, with a focus on sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and renewable energy [3]

Group 1: Gold and Precious Metals - Gold stocks rose, with Hecla Mining, Alamos Gold, Kinross Gold, and Harmony Gold increasing over 3% as spot gold surpassed $4040 and New York futures crossed $4070 per ounce, gaining 1.66% in a single day [1] - Notable investor Ray Dalio recommended an overweight position in gold, suggesting that investors should consider allocating 15% of their portfolios to gold due to its superior safe-haven properties compared to the US dollar [3] Group 2: Technology Sector - Major US tech stocks, including Nvidia and AMD, experienced significant gains, with Nvidia rising over 2% [5] - Nvidia's CEO confirmed an investment in Elon Musk's startup xAI, expressing excitement about the deal and a desire to invest more [7] - AMD surged nearly 5% following a Morgan Stanley report indicating a partnership with OpenAI, where AMD is expected to hold up to 10% equity and collaborate on AI chip development, with an investment exceeding $100 billion planned over several years [7] Group 3: Chinese Stocks - Popular Chinese stocks mostly rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increasing by 0.16%, and notable gains from companies like Zeekr, Netease, NIO, and Miniso, all rising over 2% [9] Group 4: Market Trends and Analysis - Historical data shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has fluctuated in performance around the National Day holiday, with mixed results over the past decade [11][12] - The probability of sector gains post-National Day is generally above 50%, particularly in the computer, communication, and electronics sectors, while banking and automotive sectors also show strong performance potential [14]

记者丨黎雨桐 杨乔羽 编辑丨陈思颖 叶映橙 北京时间10月8日晚间，美股三大指数集体高开，截至22：05左右，三大指数微涨。 黄金股走高，赫克拉矿业、埃氏金业、金田、哈莫尼黄金涨超3%。消息面上，8日晚间，现货黄金站上4040美元，纽约期金突破4070美元/盎 司，日内涨1.66%。 消息面上，知名投资人、桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧近日再次推荐超配黄金。在周二举行的格林威治经济论坛上，达利欧赞同"当前黄金比美元 更具避险属性"这一观点，并表示投资者应该考虑在资产组合中配置15%的黄金。 消息面上，英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋证实对马斯克旗下初创公司xAI进行了投资，并称对这一交易感到非常兴奋，唯一的遗憾是没给xAI更多投 资。他希望能参与马斯克的所有业务。 | | 近十年10月沪深两市的月涨跌情况 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 年份 | 沪指涨跌幅(%) | 深成指涨跌幅(%) | | 2015 | 10. 80 | 15. 60 | | 2016 | 3. 19 | 1. 29 | | 2017 | 1. 33 | 2. 53 | | 2018 | -7.75 | -10. 93 | | 20 ...

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that precious metals like gold and silver have risen further due to disruptions such as the U.S. government shutdown during the National Day holiday [1] - The copper price has also strengthened significantly in the context of a computing power revolution [1] - The global AI competition has entered a new phase, shifting investment focus from individual key segments to comprehensive computing power infrastructure and ecosystem development [1] - Looking ahead, the A-share market is expected to maintain a trend of steady upward movement, supported by stable economic fundamentals, continuous inflow of incremental capital, global liquidity easing, and improved China-U.S. relations [1] - Key sectors to watch include AI, semiconductors, non-ferrous metals (precious and industrial metals), new energy, humanoid robots, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-bank financials [1]

9月28日，国家发改委等八部门联合印发《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025-2026年）》，其中提 到，2025-2026年，有色金属行业增加值年均增长5%左右，十种有色金属产量年均增长1.5%左右，铜、 铝、锂等国内资源开发取得积极进展，再生金属产量突破2000万吨。 业内人士指出，这份重磅文件背后，透露着一个不容忽视的机遇——铜，这个新能源与算力革命的"核 心血脉"，正迎来历史性风口。 铜的战略地位远超想象。我国铜储量仅占全球3%，但需求却占全球过半。在能源转型与AI算力双浪叠 加下，铜已从传统工业金属蜕变为战略资源：单辆电动车用铜量达传统燃油车4倍，特别是其中的电池 用铜占比超60%AI服务器更是"耗铜大户"：传统服务器仅需5公斤，而英伟达GB200猛增至20公斤，某 些高端机型PCB用铜量甚至突破1.3吨。 并且，铜的供需缺口持续扩大，2025年全球铜供需缺口已达150万吨，叠加全球第二大铜矿生产中断， 供需矛盾进一步加剧。市场分析人士指出，这可能也是国家此时重磅出台方案，全力推动国内资源开发 与再生利用的核心原因。 盘面上，今日（9月30日）有色金属板块领涨两市，揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ET ...